A Correspondent writes:

This week the Otter Estuary was reconnected to sea for the first time in 200 years as a section of the historic embankment next to the lime kiln car park was removed. 

At the beginning of the nineteenth century Lord Rolle started to plan a grand scheme for the River Otter below Otterton and East Budleigh. This part of the estuary, through which the river meandered, was  called the “Runnie”. The Runnie used to flood freely at high tide. The section just above, and including, what is now the lime kiln car park was called the “Salmon Pool” and formed a harbour for coasters and yachts. 

Plans to build a series of embankments were drawn up by the renowned Devon surveyor and civil engineer James Green. (James Green built many fine bridges in Devon including Otterton Bridge).

The aim was to reclaim land for agriculture and, by straightening and canalising the river along the eastern bank, to increase its navigability.

Work started around 1810, finishing with modifications and extensions around 1815. Local legend has it that the work was carried out by French prisoners of war but this is not supported by historical work on contracts carried out in the Clinton Estate archive.

Over the years the banks have been “overtopped” many times by flood water sweeping down the valley and sections have been swept away a number of times by flood tides. The first breach occurred during a particularly damaging storm of 1824. Major breaches also occurred in the fifties and the latest in 2018, requiring major repairs. 

Over two hundred years, the once productive reclaimed land now lies below the level of the river bed. It has become saline and difficult to drain. Navigability was never restored as shallow draft boats could no longer drift upstream at high tide in a wide estuary and beach as they did before . 

As it happens, this deliberate breach has occurred just before the equinoctial spring tides. These are tides with a greater than average range. On Saturday and Sunday, high tide will be 4.7 m. So we don’t have to wait to see what happens.

At this level there is expected that some water will cover parts of the new footpaths. And, indeed this was witnessed above South Farm Road. 

Here are some images of this historic moment:

The start of the breach, about one third of the intended 70m gap created, looking north from the beach

Partial breach looking south

Saturday flood tide looking north towards elevated South Farm Road

Tide over footpath north of South Farm Road

Looking south towards estuary mouth

According to The Daily Mail, the Prime Minister is hoping to gain support from drivers by announcing a ‘Plan for Motorists‘ at the Tory conference early next week. 

Today’s Daily Express headline reads: Tories declare war against drivers is over!

Pro-motorist measures might include limiting council powers to impose 20mph zones and levy fines from traffic cameras and ensuring motorists get access to bus lanes for a minimum period.

Not only do we all need to reduce our dependency on cars but this policy would represent increased central “Whitehall” control over what should be devolved issues for decision making.

Neighbourhoods and communities have rights as well as car owners. Who has declared war?

Owl has often speculated that this obsession with motor cars may have resulted from Tories overdosing on, or being force fed, “Wind in the Willows” in their sensitive years. Resulting in an association with the entitled Mr. Toad, owner of Toad Hall who possessed large amounts of money but not much brain. Toad became mesmerised by automobiles, belching smoke, sound and fury, when his horse-drawn gypsy caravan was forced off the road. – Poop Poop. 

It didn’t end well for him.

Or perhaps car ownership in Britain is seen as a manifestation of “freedom” in the way that the right to bear arms is in the US.

PS Unlike “Winnie the Pooh”, the “Wind in the willows” doesn’t feature an Owl!

Imagine demanding an “honest” debate over the cost of net zero in a report full of errors that even a schoolboy would be embarrassed about. Then imagine getting coverage of your report in the Sun, Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express and Spectator. (Not that difficult. – Owl)

Simon Evans www.theguardian.com 

Sound impossible? Well, let me tell you how Civitas, one of the thinktanks housed at 55 Tufton Street in London, did exactly that, and nearly got away with it.

On Wednesday, Civitas published a pamphlet on net zero by Ewen Stewart, whose consultancy, Walbrook Economics, works on “the interaction of macroeconomics, politics and capital markets”.

Stewart is also a climate sceptic, having written in 2021 that human-caused warming is a “contested theory”. Along with Civitas, 55 Tufton Street also houses the climate-sceptic lobby group the Global Warming Policy Foundation and its campaigning arm Net Zero Watch. These groups previously attempted to spark an “honest debate about the cost of net-zero” in 2020.

The Civitas report claims to offer a “realistic” £4.5tn estimate of the cost of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 and says “the government need to be honest with the British people”.

This estimate is much higher than the figure produced by the government’s official adviser, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which has said that reaching net zero would require net investments of £1.4tn by 2050. Note the difference between Civitas’s “costs” and the CCC’s “net investments”. The CCC also found that reaching net zero would generate savings in the form of lower fossil fuel bills worth £1.1tn, resulting in a net cost of £0.3tn.

In his report for Civitas, Stewart adopts the well-worn climate-sceptic tactic of simply ignoring these savings. He also ignores what the Office for Budget Responsibility has called the potentially “catastrophic economic and fiscal consequences” of unmitigated climate change.

The report was timed to follow hot on the heels of Rishi Sunak’s big climate speech, in which he called for an “honest” approach to net zero that ends “unacceptable costs”.

Unfortunately the report’s author has confused power capacity in megawatts (MW) with electricity generation in megawatt hours (MWh). As a result, he presents a distinctly unrealistic “£1.3m per MWh” figure for the cost for onshore wind power. The true number is around £50-70/MWh – more than 10,000 times lower. He then compounded his embarrassment by mixing up billions with trillions.

Nevertheless the report got supportive coverage in the Daily Mail. A piece by the paper’s deputy political editor had a headline that claimed net zero “could cost households £6,000 a year”. At the Sun, the story also landed on the deputy political editor’s desk, and also inspired an editorial denouncing “dishonest rhetoric” on net zero.

In the Spectator, the climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark hedged his bets a little, given the many errors in the report, but argued: “There is no reason to suppose Civitas’ figures will turn out to be right … But they are an important contribution to a debate.”

The Daily Telegraph and the Times – both of which have experienced teams of specialist energy and environment reporters – declined to give news coverage to the Civitas report. The Times, however, did give a prominent comment slot to Tim Knox, the former director of Civitas’s neighbours, the Centre for Policy Studies . The paper failed to mention his association with the report, which acknowledges on one page that it would not have been possible without him.

The Daily Express gave space to another Tufton Street thinktank to weigh in, with the Taxpayers Alliance also writing a comment in support of Civitas’s work.

Despite the report’s errors, the Tufton Street playbook had, at this stage, worked flawlessly, laundering a set of embarrassingly wrong numbers into the nation’s newspapers and giving the likes of the rightwing gossip blog Order Order the chance to promote them.

By lunchtime on the day after the report’s publication, however, its many errors had become the subject of viral tweets on X, previously known as Twitter, piling pressure on Civitas to respond.

An extremely hastily issued “update” on the Civitas website says: “There has been criticism on social media of two paragraphs on page 47 of this report, where capacity and output are confused. These paragraphs will be amended and updated. The author is happy to acknowledge this and correct the report.”

It then adds: “The fact remains that we are facing a huge bill for net zero that is many times more than official estimates.”

Stewart could easily have avoided this embarrassment. After seeing an embargoed copy of the report, I had emailed him pointing out the error over units the day before it was published. He never responded.

The update from Civitas ignored the many other problems with the report, including areas where it included costs for doing the same thing twice.

It is littered with assertions unencumbered by facts or evidence. It states, for example, that it is “not unreasonable to assume” that net zero would add £403bn to the cost of food.

Actual evidence that the impacts of climate change and high fossil fuel prices has added an estimated £11bn to UK food bills in 2022 alone, on the other hand, is conveniently ignored.

Similarly, Civitas cites a 2019 report from the Faraday Institute to claim that net zero could result in 114,000 job losses in the car industry, while ignoring the same report’s finding that, on the contrary, a well-marshalled shift to electric vehicles could support 246,000 jobs in the sector.

As well as ignoring the savings from net zero in terms of lower fossil fuel bills, the Civitas report sidesteps the costs of unmitigated climate change – and ignores the cost of business-as-usual.

This amounts to assuming that the UK could continue to get energy from fossil fuels for free, as well as being able to replace old gas boilers, cars with internal combustion engines and fossil-fuelled power stations as they retire with new fossil-fuelled infrastructure without ever having to pay for it.

At the time of writing, only one newspaper – the Times – had acknowledged any of these issues, albeit only half-heartedly. It has added a note to the Knox comment piece that repeats Civitas’s assertion that only two paragraphs of its report were in error. All of the other uncritical coverage remains.

Voter ID should be scrapped and the money spent on encouraging more people to get interested in local democracy. That was the verdict of one of Plymouth city councillor this week.

Alison Stephenson, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Cllr Bill Stevens (Lab, Devonport) said considering only 38,000 out of 158,000 people eligilble to vote in person in this May’s local elections did so, effort should be spent “make it easier not harder” for people to vote.

The 32 per cent turnout in the city was slightly lower than the last comparable elections and 86 people who came to vote didn’t bring the correct ID.

New identifcation rules were introduced this year following a case of electoral fraud in Tower Hamlets in London. They have proved controversial, with critics claiming it favours older voters and addresses a problem that doesn’t exist.

The change means extra administration work for electoral staff. In Plymouth, additional funding of £60,000 has been allocated by the government to promote voter ID ahead of the next general election.

Assessing the impact of voter ID on Plymouth residents and the council, members of the audit and governance committee said they couldn’t fault the elections’ team and the low turnout was not down to voter ID.

Cllr Stevens said: “I have no criticism of the approach of our staff, this is not about them doing a shoddy job. Just the opposite; it’s about the government shoving this on us. Efforts should go into targeting those who don’t vote. All we are doing is making it harder for them, we are going in the wrong direction.

Councillors said voter ID was not a new concept internationally and it has been in place in Northern Ireland for some time.

“I understand the argument as what happened in Tower Hamlets was monstrous and in Northern Ireland there is a history of electoral malpractice but we don’t have it here in Plymouth,” added Cllr Stephens.

Cllr Lee Finn (Con, Budshead) said the campaign was well run and communicated. “We councillors have a lot of work to reach people who made it clear why they didn’t want to vote. We have to take some responsibility for the low turnout.”

Cllr Alison Raynsford (Lab, St Peter and the Waterfront) said postal voting should be promoted to make it easier for people to vote.

Councillors were told that many people are oblivious to voter ID rules as they only participate in general elections so there will need to be another media campaign.

As the Conservative conference gets underway in Manchester, just a short helicopter ride from No 10!

Numbers of the UK’s most precious animals and plants are still falling, as a countrywide nature-loss crisis continues, State of Nature report finds.

Report author and University of Sussex environmental-biology professor Fiona Matthews said: “We need a lot more investment [in nature].

“There is a belief in government that things can just magically happen for free.”

By Victoria Gill and Kate Stephens www.bbc.co.uk

Loss of nature is outpacing investment and effort to tackle it, conservation organisations say.

Their State of the Nature report found 16% of 10,000 mammals, plants, insects, birds and amphibians assessed were threatened.

They include UK wildlife icons such as the turtle dove and hazel dormouse.

The government has said it is committed to “increasing the amount of habitat for nature to thrive”.

But conservation organisations say more investment and a shift to much more wildlife-friendly farming and fishing are urgently needed.

Busy roads often block migration paths for common toads, making it difficult for them to reach breeding ponds

The 203-page document was produced by more than 60 organisations, including wildlife conservation groups, government agencies and academics.

Its analysis of decades of research paints a grim picture – natural spaces and the wildlife that depends on them are in decline.

Nida al-Fulaij, from the People’s Trust for Endangered Species, told BBC News: “The main takeaways from this report are alarming.”

And she explained how thousands of studies used in the report examined the abundance or distribution of UK wildlife.

‘Bleak outlook’

“Where we can, we count species year after year,” Ms Fulaij said.

“Another way to measure how a plant or animal is faring is to repeatedly examine a site and ask, ‘Is the species here or not?'”

Plants and animals monitored since the 1970s have declined in abundance by an average 19%.

And this trend suggests a bleak outlook for much of the country’s native wildlife, conservation scientists say.

This should make everyone “sit up and listen”, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) chief executive Beccy Speight said.

Restoring nature would also help to tackle the climate crisis.

“We need to move far faster as a society towards nature-friendly land and sea use,” Ms Speight said.

“Otherwise, the UK’s nature and wider environment will continue to decline and degrade, with huge implications for our own way of life.”

Responding to these calls for action, the government said it was investing in its “30-by-30” pledge, to protect 30% of land for nature by 2030.

“At the start of this year, I published our comprehensive Environmental Improvement Plan,” Environment Secretary Therese Coffey said, “setting out how we will create and restore at least 500,000 hectares [2,000 sq miles] of new wildlife habitats.”

The government also highlighted investments including:

• a £40m Species Survival Fund
• £750m for woodland and peatland restoration

But RSPB conservation-science head Prof Richard Gregory told BBC News: “We’d need more to achieve the goal of 30 by 30.

“The task ahead of us to recover nature in the UK is large and complex – we are really talking of billions of pounds and not millions to change systems and tackle the drives of decline.

“That investment would return a huge amount for society in time and save huge future costs if we allow the environment to continue to decline and degrade.”

Since 1970, the report says, of the 2,890 species in Britain’s “priority group”:

• 58% fell in number
• 19% increased

• Almost 1,500 UK native species of plants and animals are now threatened with extinction
• Most of the important habitats for UK nature – including woodland, wetlands and wildflower meadows – are in poor condition
• Only about 11% of UK land is within protected areas – and not all are well managed for nature and wildlife
• None of the seafloor around the UK is in “good condition”, because of damage from fishing gear

In the North Pennines, Nic and Paul Renison have transformed the way they farm, to create more space for nature, dividing their 400 acres (160 hectares) into small pastures and moving their cows into a new field each day.

“The idea is that it’s like the buffalo on the plains – they move every day, then the pasture gets 60 days to recover,” Nic said.

With the help of the Woodland Trust, they have also planted wildlife-friendly hedgerows to create wildlife “corridors” throughout their farm.

“The more you do, the more nature you attract – it gets addictive,” Paul said.

All five of the UK’s resident owl species can now be found on the Renisons’ farm and 50 different bird species are breeding there, a recent survey revealed.

In England, an estimated 70% of land is farmed.

And studies suggest nature-friendly farming can boost production.

In one large-scale study in central England, turning over land from crops to wildlife habitat increased yields, probably by boosting the abundance of insects that pollinate those crops.

But the Nature Friendly Farming Network said more investment would be needed “to support all farmers in restoring nature and acting on climate change”.

But the report also found “targeted conservation”, concerted efforts to restore habitats and protect species, had worked well:

• The number of species in a marine protected area (MPA) in Lyme Bay, Devon, had significantly increased since trawling was banned, in 2008
• 600 sq km (150,000 acres) of the Cairngorms, in the Highlands, had been restored for woodland-dependent wildlife
• The RSPB’s Hope Farm, in Cambridgeshire, had provided a research and demonstration site, showing how crop yields could been increased along with bird numbers

Report author and University of Sussex environmental-biology professor Fiona Matthews said: “We need a lot more investment [in nature].

“There is a belief in government that things can just magically happen for free.”

But while she acknowledged the great work from thousands of volunteers, funded work was needed too.

“I often see a press release for £1m for this or that – but it is a drop in the ocean for what is actually required to tackle this issue,” Prof Matthews said.

“Decisive” Rishi Sunak repeatedly dodged H2S questions in excruciating interviews, suggesting that making sure the roads are free of potholes: “That’s priority number one.” (Orders of magnitude cheaper too, although levelling up on this in Devon has never seemed to be anywhere near “priority number one”, let alone dualling the A303 , electrifying the railway west of Bristol or improving the limited capacity of the single track west of Salisbury. None of which would come near HS2 “levelling up investment”. – Owl)

For the last decade at least, prime ministers have traditionally done a big regional broadcast round before their party conference. 

2023 is no exception as the Tories gather for their conference in Manchester starting on Sunday.

Yesterday, the PM did an hour of quick-fire interviews starting with BBC Radio York at 8 a.m. … BBC Radio West Midlands at 8.08 a.m. … BBC Radio Manchester at 8.15 a.m. … BBC Radio Shropshire at 8.22 a.m. … BBC Radio Tees at 8.30 a.m. … BBC Three Counties Radio at 8.38 a.m. … BBC Radio Cornwall at 8.45 a.m. … and finally BBC Radio Berkshire at 8.52 a.m. He then sat down for 15 (15!) back-to-back TV interviews with political editors from the BBC regions and nations.

They didn’t go well, including his grilling on Spotlight on sewage.

Archie Mitchell www.independent.co.uk

Rishi Sunak has blamed the pandemic for Britain’s failing railways as he refused 12 times to rule out scrapping HS2’s northern leg in a series of excrutiating interviews.

The prime minister said Covid-19 caused everyone to “stop travelling on the rail network”, which has made running train services “very difficult”.

Challenged on why he had “failed the North’s railway passengers so badly” – amid anger over plans revealed by The Independent to scale back the much-heralded high-speed rail line – he replied: “There have obviously been challenges on the rail network more generally. And it’s across the country because of the pandemic.”

In the excruciating round of interviews with local BBC radio hosts, Mr Sunak refused repeatedly to commit to building the high speed rail network north of Birmingham – and instead suggested fixing potholes was “priority number one”.

The PM said there were “spades in the ground” on phase one of the project, but refused to say whether he was committed to phase two, whichThe Independent revealed Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are considering scrapping to save cash.

The prime minister repeatedly highlighted his focus on building better connections between northern towns and cities, investing in local transport such as bus services and making sure potholes are filled.

But, asked for a “yes or no” answer on whether he would scrap HS2’s northern leg, the PM said: “I am not not speculating on future things.”

And challenged over the state of Britain’s rail infrastructure by BBC Radio York, Mr Sunak blamed problems with train services on the pandemic.

Presenter Joanita Musisi highlighted operators being stripped of their franchises and being taken into state control. She said: “Why have you failed the North’s rail passengers so badly?”

Mr Sunak replied: “There have obviously been challenges on the rail network more generally.

“And it’s across the country because of the pandemic, and the government ploughed in billions and billions of pounds to keep our services running.

“When you have a pandemic and everyone stops travelling on the rail network that makes life very difficult and people can understand that.”

The Railway Industry Association (RIA) on Monday pointed to Department for Transport (DfT) figures showing that from April 2022 to March 2023, overall rail passenger numbers were the same as in 2012, when the UK Government first confirmed support for HS2.

RIA chief executive Darren Caplan said: “One of the reasons cited by critical politicians for scrapping HS2 Phase 2 is that passenger numbers are significantly down and people will not travel by train in future.

“This is plain wrong… today’s passenger levels are already significantly higher than when the business case for HS2 was approved, and have been growing back strongly since the pandemic.”

Speaking to BBC West Midlands, he said “what is important” is “that we are investing in the transport that they use every day”. Mr Sunak said the government is working to make sure roads are free of potholes and that bus services are “reliable and frequent”.

In a brutal exchange with BBC Radio Manchester’s Anna Jameson, she said: “We are straight talking people in the North. It is a yes or a no, are you scrapping the HS2 line between Birmingham and Manchester.”

Mr Sunak said: “Like I said, I’m not not speculating on future things. We have spades in the ground right now and are getting on.”

Ms Jameson said: “Is it under review?”

He said: “The government is always making sure that we get value for money out of everything we do but that’s just a statement of the obvious.

“But I think what people also should know, because I know there’s a lot of focus on this one thing, but actually what are the journeys that people use most in Greater Manchester or across the north? It’s in their cars right now getting to work taking their kids to school making sure that the roads are free of potholes.

“That’s priority number one.”

An exasperated Ms Jameson said: “We are not talking about potholes, the main story right now across the country is people want to know about the future of HS2 and still now you can’t give me a yes or a no. You are the main in control. You have the keys. You can tell us now if it is happening.”

Mr Sunak said: “My point to you is that the vast majority of the journeys that people make are in their cars, making sure that we make sure our roads are well maintained is really important.”

She interrupted: “But we are talking about trains, we are not talking about cars.”

In one of the biggest political stories of the year, The Independent revealed Mr Sunak was in secret talks – dubbed Project Redwood – with his chancellor to scrap the second phase of the project.

Former chancellor George Osborne and ex-deputy PM Lord Heseltine described the proposal as a “gross act of vandalism”, which would end up being a case of “economic self-harm”.

After the story broke on 14 September, Downing Street repeatedly stone-walled before ministers accepted talks over the most dramatic decision in years to stop a £34bn infrastructure spend were taking place.

The story has prompted unprecedented fallout, with two former prime ministers attacking Mr Sunak amid a cascade of criticism and cabinet divides. Boris Johnson and David Cameron were joined by ex-chancellor Philip Hammond in urging the PM not to cut the high-speed rail route.

An example of the constructive use of scrutiny – Owl

County councillors who voted to axe the service back in the summer have been told to think again before taking the books-on-wheels service off the road for good.

Guy Henderson, local democracy reporter .www.radioexe.co.uk

Stephen Fry, Michael Rosen and Michael Morpurgo are among the high-profile writers who backed a county-wide campaign to save the service, and nearly 9,000 people have signed a petition.

Now members of a county council scrutiny committee have voted to send the decision back for a re-think.

“Let’s not kid anybody,” said Cllr Ian Roome (Lib Dem, Barnstaple North). “It’s a cut in services because we want to reduce the budget. It would be detrimental for our rural communities.”

The county council’s cabinet decided in July that it would not be cost-effective to replace its four ageing mobile library vans after hearing that the vehicles were nearing the end of their serviceable lives and would cost up to £800,000 to replace.

But the decision was ‘called in’ for a second debate amid a public campaign to save the mobile service.

“I am failing to grasp why we are cutting a service which is still being used,” said Cllr Roome.

The scrutiny committee was told demand for mobile libraries had dwindled over the last 10 years and a number of village stops had been removed as a result. Devon already has 50 static libraries as well as online resources and community schemes.

July’s cabinet meeting also pledged £25,000 to make sure vulnerable users could access alternative services.

But John Smith of Coldridge Parish Council told the meeting the service should be a ‘flagship’ for the county, and the ’misconceived’ closure would affect thousands of people.

Cllr Jacqi Hodgson (Green, Totnes and Dartington) said axing it would be “a massive retrograde step” and Cllr Rob Hannaford (Lab, Exwick and St Thomas) warned colleagues: “When it’s gone, it’s gone, and that will be a really sad day for Devon.”

Cabinet member for libraries Cllr Roger Croad (Con, Ivybridge) said July’s decision had been one of the saddest he had ever made.

But, he said, the number of people using mobile libraries was declining sharply, and online alternatives and volunteer book deliveries were available.

“It is not my intention to remove people from books, or books from people,” he said. 

Cllr Jerry Brook (Con, Chudleigh and Teign Valley) added: “It’s about value for money, not only for library-users but also for the rest of the people in this county.

“How many of the people who signed the petition actually use the mobile libraries? If we were to ask nearly 800,000 residents in Devon if this is value for money, I think the answer might be quite interesting.”

After a series of votes on amendments, members eventually agreed to send the matter back to the cabinet, asking it to reconsider its decision to axe the libraries.

Cabinet members will be asked to get  precise figures on leasing rather than buying new vehicles, and reducing costs through crowdfunding or sponsorship.

They will also be asked to make sure alternative provision of library services is in place before any services are taken away.

Councils are facing a record cash shortfall of more than £3.5bn in the coming year with jobs and services facing cuts, according to an analysis.

Rowena Mason www.theguardian.com 

Data compiled by Unison, the trade union, found there were 114 councils in England, Scotland and Wales – almost a third – facing shortfalls of more than £10m. It said 15 councils were likely to be in the red by more than £40m next year.

Top of the list is Birmingham city council, with a £164m shortfall, followed by Thurrock council with a gap of £157m, both of which in effect recently declared themselves bankrupt.

Other authorities with severe cash shortfalls are Hampshire county council, on £82m, Sheffield city council, on £72.7m, and Bradford city council, on £72m.

Unison found the data from freedom of information requests as well as examining publicly available information. The research found that 86% had a predicted budget gap, with just 14% saying they were on course to balance the books.

It warned that the situation was likely to worsen as the cumulative funding gap is predicted to rise even further to more than £7bn in 2025/26.

The union said many local authorities were already considering job cuts as well as scaling back community services such as waste collection, libraries and leisure centres. Others may sell land and buildings or dip further into reserves.

Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, said many councils were “on the brink”.

“Communities rely on their local authorities for all manner of essential services, such as waste collection, road repairs and parks and other open spaces,” she said.

“But councils are on their knees. Ministers seem to care very little about public services and local government has been hit hard over very many years.

“Essential services can’t run on thin air. Staff levels have already been cut to the bone in desperate attempts to balance the books.

“Yet more service cuts and job losses are sadly inevitable across the country unless the government intervenes with the lifeline of significant extra funding. Not just for those on the brink, but to councils everywhere.”

Unison highlighted Woking council, where 350 workers have been put on notice of possible redundancy as it seeks to cut 60 positions, and Kirklees council, which has plans to axe 250 jobs between October and next March.

Hampshire is reviewing its school crossing patrols, putting up to 45 jobs at risk, while Kent is considering the closure of 37 children’s and youth centres across the county.

Following the analysis, Unison called on Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, to provide extra grant funding in the autumn statement to help with the immediate challenges, warning that local authorities and their communities would no longer be able to cope.

A spokesperson for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, said: “Local authorities have seen an increase in core spending power of up to £5.1bn or 9.4% in cash terms on 2022-23, with almost £60bn available for local government in England.

“We stand ready to speak to any council that has concerns about its ability to manage its finances or faces pressures it has not planned for.”

The local government finance settlement for 2024-25 is set to be published later in the year.

Residents plagued by years of ‘putrid’ stink and noise from a plant on the outskirts of Exeter that turns pig slurry into renewable energy can look forward to the slurry tank being covered by a lid designed to contain its smells.

Guy Henderson, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

The anaerobic digester near Clyst St Mary (image courtesy: East Devon District Council)

But they will also have to put up with more traffic after East Devon District Council’s planning committee passed a fresh application from the company that runs the plant.

Gorst Energy originally received permission to put a lid on the giant anaerobic digestion tank in 2018, but hasn’t done so yet. The permission lapsed and the company applied again.

It also asked to more than double the amount of crops it can converted into energy for the National Grid.

The digester, which is next door to a pig farm, takes the farm’s slurry along with specially-grown crops to be broken down by bacteria in a large tank. The resulting gas creates energy.

Cllr Steve Gazzard (Lib Dem, Exmouth Withycombe Raleigh) ‘reluctantly’ proposed approval of the plans, adding: “I can’t think of a reason to refuse this.”

A previous application was turned down on appeal because of its effect on the residents of a nearby bungalow, but Gorst Energy has since bought the bungalow and uses it as part of the site.

The land is in open countryside opposite Westpoint, around 500 metres east of Clyst St Mary. Gorst Energy says its proposal will increase efficiency and create more low carbon energy for consumers. There were no objections from the Environment Agency, environmental health officers or highways authorities.

Speaking on behalf of Clyst St Mary residents, Gaeron Kayley said the plant was causing ‘misery’ and there had been ‘literally thousands’ of fruitless complaints to the Environment Agency over the years.

Cllr Mike Howe (Ind, Clyst Valley) said the dome lid should have been installed three years ago when permission was first given. 

“They chose not to do it then because they don’t care about the residents being affected around them,” he said. “Local residents have had enough.

“I have been dealing with this site for over 10 years, and we have not been able to get any enforcement action on noise or smell. There is no control.”

Cllr Ian Barlow (Ind, Sidmouth Town) told the meeting: “This isn’t about being green, it’s about making money.” And Cllr John Heath (Ind, Beer and Branscombe) said the noise from the plant was ‘a form of psychological torture’ for its neighbours.

David Manley, representing Gorst Energy, pointed out that the planning inspector had already said the changes could be made without causing nuisance, and there were already stringent controls around its operations.

Darren Stockley of its parent company Ixora Energy said the changes would bring additional benefits and around £4 million a year to the local economy.

“We take very seriously any complaints about noise, odour and traffic,” he said. “We do all we can to engage with the community. We also try to act on any concerns raised to us.

“And the last 18 months have shown just how important reliable, renewable, local energy is rather than having to rely on Russia and Norway.”

Members agreed by a majority to approve the plans subject to a number of conditions.

The decision by the Royal Borough of Greenwich to say enough is enough and order the demolition of 204 homes at the Mast Quay development in south-east London casts a spotlight on one of the most unequal battles in the public realm – between major developers and town hall planners.

Robert Booth www.theguardian.com 

And it is one that often enrages the public. Greenwich’s gambit has cheered community groups who say they are feeling increasingly powerless to challenge, even with the help of the planning system, the might of developers.

And it comes after the unauthorised demolition of the Crooked House pub in Staffordshire – another dramatic example of a property owner allegedly ignoring planning officers’ wishes.

Pulling down the Mast Quay buildings in Woolwich would be “pretty extreme”, said Sebastian Charles, the chair of the Law Society’s planning and environmental law committee. The government’s planning inspectorate now appears likely to be asked to consider whether the apartments, as built, warrant planning permission. It could be a high-stakes ruling.

For more than 75 years, since the Town and Country Planning Act of 1947 came into effect, development in this country has relied on both sides playing by the rules. After permission for a building is granted, most significant design changes must be checked with the planners. It is a negotiation and it relies not only on trust, but on there being enough planners to respond.

And if developers err from the plans, there are currently very few officials to stop them – which partially explains why Greenwich only very belatedly appears to have spotted the problems at Mast Quay II.

The plans that were granted permission (left), and what was built (right) Composite: royalgreenwich.gov

To a large degree, developers are self-policing. Often they borrow large sums of money to build. Lenders need to know they are not throwing money into investments that risk being pulverised over a planning row. So checks are normally made within a project team.

But even large councils only have a handful of planning enforcement officers – six would be a large number, according to the Royal Town Planning Institute. Most of their work is reacting to complaints about a neighbour’s domestic extension breaching planning consent, or a hedge or a tree being pulled down, said Richard Blyth, the head of policy practice and research at RTPI.

That leaves little time for “proactive enforcement” – like checking if the 23-storey building going up by the Thames looks like the visualisations. Last year, an RTPI survey of 103 councils found that 90% had an enforcement backlog and 80% said they didn’t have enough enforcement officers for the workload.

And in an era when major councils like Birmingham are going bust, planning enforcement is a low priority. Unlike granting permissions, there are no fees attached. Every pound spent policing the developers has to come from central council funding, Blyth said.

Official figures on enforcement suggest either developers are increasingly conforming to planning law or the reach of planners is declining. In 2015-16 more than 5,000 enforcement notices were issued, but by 2022-23 that had fallen to less than 3,600, according to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.

The battle at Mast Quay II now has months to run. In the meantime, the renters who live there face unwelcome uncertainty.

Two months ago the Swedish energy giant, Vattenfall, stopped work on its giant North Sea windfarm. Subsequently no company bid for the next tranche of offshore windfarm licences because the government hasn’t done its market setting sums properly. Development of offshore (and onshore) wind is key to meeting net zero.

Today, it’s “drill baby drill” for oil and gas in the Rosebank field off Shetland. Where the company can offset costs against energy windfall tax already levied, gaining a massive subsidy from the tax payer. 

Lifetime emissions from the site will take a huge chunk out of the UK’s climate plans with oil produced over its lifetime equivalent to more than half of the UK’s remaining carbon budget for total fuel supply.

As a consequence, everything else we do will have to “decarbonise” even more quickly if we are to meet our legally binding net zero targets.

Make any sense to you?

In his latest weekly column Simon Jupp says we need to forge a credible path to Net Zero and good progress has been made. – Owl

Matthew Taylor owww.theguardian.com

Just 24 hours before the UK gave the go-ahead to develop the UK’s biggest untapped oilfield off Shetland, the world’s leading energy analysts reiterated that no no new oil and gas exploration should take place if the world was to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

That stark warning seems to have been ignored by ministers who, after a week in which they have rowed back on the UK’s net zero commitments and scrapped their own home energy efficiency taskforce, are accused of leaving the UK’s climate plans in tatters.

The range of opposition to the proposed Rosebank field has been building for the past 18 months.

Alongside the International Energy Association, the government’s own climate advisers at the Climate Change Committee said pushing ahead with the new fossil fuel development in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence was “utterly unacceptable”. And the UN secretary general, António Guterres, added his voice calling on governments to halt new licences for oil and gas exploration and development.

On the ground, climate scientists and academics have joined MPs and religious leaders as well as 200 charities and civil society groups to raise their opposition.

But the UK government seems intent on pushing ahead, with ministers repeatedly saying the new oilfield is needed for energy security adding that it will help people struggling with the cost of living crisis.

However, experts point out that last year 75% of the UK’s oil production was exported. They say the same is likely to happen with fossil fuels from any new development.

No oil is expected to be produced from Rosebank until 2027 and, wherever the oil ends up, experts say it will be sold on the international market at the going rate, meaning it will have no little or no impact on the cost of living crisis or energy security.

Tessa Khan, executive director of campaign group Uplift and a climate lawyer, said: “Rosebank is a rip-off. It’s another case of the government allowing foreign companies to profit, while the costs are put on British people who worry about the world we are handing on to our children.”

Campaigners say that if the government were serious about improving energy security and tackling the cost of living crisis they would press ahead with domestic renewable energy and home insulation.

The Rosebank project is three times bigger than the controversial Cambo field that was put on hold in 2021 and has the potential to produce 500m barrels of oil, which when burned would emit as much carbon dioxide as running 56 coal-fired power stations for a year.

Analysis from GlobalData reveals lifetime emissions from the site would take a huge chunk out of the UK’s climate plans with oil produced over its lifetime equivalent to more than half of the UK’s remaining carbon budget for total fuel supply.

Khan said: “As we’ve heard repeatedly, our world can no longer sustain new oil and gas drilling. And when we’re witnessing scorching temperatures, wildfires, devastating flooding and heatwaves in our seas, it could not be clearer that this is a decision by the prime minister to add more fuel to the fire.”

The Labour party had said it would ban any new oil and gas extraction in the North Sea. However, to the dismay of campaigners, it says it would not revoke any North Sea oil and gas licences granted by this government.

Hannah Martin, co executive director of Green New Deal Rising, said if Labour took a strong stand now it could still put a stop to the Rosebank development: “This position does not make sense, and there is still time for Keir Starmer to put himself on the right side of history and show leadership by committing to revoking Rosebank’s licence.”

Despite today’s announcement opponents of the Rosebank scheme are not giving up.

“There are strong grounds to believe that the way this government has come to this decision is unlawful and we will see them in court if so,” said Khan. “We shouldn’t have to fight this government for cheap, clean energy and a livable climate, but we will.”

The Lib Dems election battle plan will focus their finite effort on a limited number of “winnable” target seats.

These are likely to include Tory seats in the South West like Honiton & Sidmouth and Exmouth & Exeter East, but the list is secret and still evolving! 

Stand by and watch this space! – Owl

Peter Walker www.theguardian.com 

Asked to sum up voters’ general impression of the Liberal Democrats, one pollster at their conference ventured “cuddly”. Well, yes and no. For all their comforting woolliness, England’s perennial third party is arguably building the UK’s most ruthless and focused election-fighting machine.

To an extent, this is not news: of the 20 biggest byelection swings since 1945, four have been Lib Dem wins under Ed Davey since 2021, a product of ultra-disciplined messaging and a more-is-more attitude to leaflets and canvassing.

What is new, and could potentially play a big role in the next general election, is the way the party has extended this infrastructure nationally, and how it is choosing to prioritise finite resources.

The Lib Dems’ approach is, at its heart, to worry much less about winning votes and focus entirely on winning seats. If you are a Lib Dem candidate and your constituency is not on the target list? Basically, you’re on your own.

The trigger was the 2019 election, written off even by the Lib Dems as a “car crash”, but one which has provided them with insight and an almost paradoxical sense of opportunity.

Giddy pre-election forecasts of 100-plus MPs crashed to a final tally of 11. But at the same time, then leader Jo Swinson, who lost her own seat, added more than 1.4m votes to the party’s 2017 total, a 55% increase. Lib Dem candidates came second in 91 constituencies, 80 of these to a Conservative, a springboard for the current fight in blue wall seats.

After Davey replaced Swinson, he and his team set about rebuilding a fragmented party machinery, making it streamlined and aimed entirely at the goal of more seats.

Helmed by Dave McCobb, a Hull councillor who is the party’s much-respected election coordinator, a strategy emerged from the byelections in which a group of senior officials, McCobb among them, would begin by simply knocking on lots of doors and asking people what concerned them.

This generated clear local messages, which could also be used nationally: sewage from the Chesham and Amersham byelection; ambulance waiting times in North Shropshire.

Every three months, the 50 Lib Dem activists members who have recorded the most voter interactions over that period join a call with McCobb, Lib Dem president, Mark Pack, and others to update them on how the messages are landing.

While the Lib Dems are targeting a handful of Labour-held seats, the preponderance of contests with Tory candidates means policies and priorities are heavily based on tempting over former Conservative voters who have grown weary of the party’s dramas.

This means a relentless national focus on issues such as sewage, the NHS and the cost of living, with more traditional Lib Dem fare such as electoral reform still in the draft manifesto but relegated to a lower “tier” and barely discussed.

All of this is then directed at identifying seats where enough disillusioned Tories and tactically-voting Labour supporters can be tempted to the Lib Dem side.

As a candidate in a target constituency you get money, resources, and floods of volunteers from other areas. If you are not; well, you get asked to send volunteers elsewhere and wished the best.

The list is not fixed. It is determined by a mix of polling and a metric based largely on legwork. The overall aim is, as one official put it, to give voters the impression of “winning momentum”.

There is, however, one thing no one will talk about, even privately: how many seats it could secure. The broad view seems to be that fewer than 30 would be regarded as a huge disappointment; more than 40 a triumph.

Thirty would double the party’s current tally. More than 40 would be approaching the glory days of 2005 and 2010. Will it happen? No one really knows. But if it does not, it will not be for want of effort.

“There is no clearer illustration of Rishi Sunak’s weakness than the fact that the Prime Minister is flailing around making policy shifts after putting Parliament into recess. He’s running scared of his divided Party with piecemeal plans that don’t stand up to scrutiny.” Shadow Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell

Jane Merrick inews.co.uk

Ministers could be prevented from making major policy announcements when the House of Commons is not sitting after Rishi Sunak’s U-turn on net zero and possible scrapping of the northern leg of HS2.

The Prime Minister sparked fury from the Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle last week when he revealed during recess that he was pushing back the date of the ban on new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035.

Sir Lindsay is also expected to issue a similar rebuke if, as expected, Mr Sunak scraps or delays the HS2 Birmingham to Manchester leg after growing concerns about spiralling costs.

The Speaker has no powers to recall Parliament under these circumstances, and can only do so on instruction from the Government.

But a spokeswoman for Sir Lindsay said any change in the rules on recall could be made by Parliament, following consideration by the Commons Procedure Committee.

If Mr Sunak makes a second major policy announcement while the House is in recess, it is likely to fuel calls for the Procedure Committee to look at changing the rules on recall.

The Labour Party has said it would always put Parliament first when significant decisions were being announced if they were in government, but a source said a possible rule change to protect future parliaments could be looked at.

Sir Lindsay wrote to Mr Sunak expressing dismay that MPs had not had the opportunity to debate the net zero U-turn.

A spokeswoman for the Speaker’s Office said: “If the Government doesn’t proactively explain its policy on HS2, Mr Speaker will do what he can to ensure the House gets to consider it at the earliest opportunity.”

This could involve the granting of an Urgent Question when the Commons returns after the current conference break on 16 October.

Asked about the issue of recall, the spokeswoman added: “It is a matter for the House to determine any change in the recall rules, probably after consideration by the Procedure Committee.”

Shadow Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell said: “There is no clearer illustration of Rishi Sunak’s weakness than the fact that the Prime Minister is flailing around making policy shifts after putting Parliament into recess. He’s running scared of his divided Party with piecemeal plans that don’t stand up to scrutiny.

“Whilst the Conservatives trash our democracy and damage the standing of Parliament, Labour respects the role of MPs in holding the Government to account on behalf of the public.”

Paul Arnott

I’d like to begin this article with a declaration of my fondness for Exmouth. The reason why may become clear in a few paragraphs time.

I first came as a small boy on holiday in the late 60s. When I was a student in Exeter in the early ‘80s I’d jump on the train at St James’ Station just behind the football ground and head for the sands. I used to love running along the beach in those long-lost days when I was a competitive sprinter. It was bliss.

Cut forward 40 years and I find myself working with a terrific bunch of East Devon District Officers, Councillors and members of the public trying to secure a genuine vision for an improved town centre and seafront. It’s going to be hard work, but the single difference I hope I have made is to make sure that all decision-making committees are held in public, and that the District Council runs open and fair consultation events to capture the wishes of the local people.

We get a few moans, and that’s fine, but at the end of the day I can look at the work we are currently doing and say that it is open, transparent and engaging. Well-informed Exmouthians know this was not always the case.

However, like every community on Earth, Exmouth has also been afflicted by what, when I was young, we might call wickedness. Not in general of course. The community is wonderful. But in the area of child sex abuse there have been a number of cases in recent years leading to criminal convictions.

Last week the Newsquest titles reported that “a sex offender has been jailed after he joined a notorious Exmouth paedophile in a plan to abuse a 14-year-old boy.”

The report went on to say that Benjamin Holt had become embroiled with a former theatre manager Gareth Weeks. Holt attempted to set up meetings with a 14-year-old boy to have sex. Holt asked the boy to commit sexual acts on him and was in the process of setting up a meeting at which they were to have sex but the intended victim realised that he was in danger and backed out.

Police had discovered evidence of this after arresting 55-year-old Weeks in Exmouth for having sex with another 14-year-old. In 2020, Weeks was jailed for 15 years. Holt has just been jailed for 3 years.

In the earlier case, Weeks, of Bassetts Gardens, Exmouth, admitted two counts of sexual activity with a child, meeting a child following grooming, inciting a child to sexual activity, arranging or facilitating a child sex offence, breach of a Sexual Offences Prevention Order, and making, taking and distributing indecent images of children.

He was jailed for 15 years and certified as a dangerous offender by Judge Timothy Rose. Notably, he had already been jailed for child sex offences in 1993 and 2012 but was still able to join an amateur theatre in Devon as a volunteer. He was still helping to organise shows until his arrest.

Sadly, Judge Timothy Rose has since passed away. I noted his name in the Weeks case from 2020 because he had also presided over the trial of Exmouth councillor, John Humphreys, on even graver charges, resulting in an historic sentence of 21 years.

At East Devon, I and a number of other councillors have laboured against much obstruction since Humphreys’ sentence in August 2021 to understand the truth about his case – who knew what and when? That work will continue until we know the full story.

More than 80 new-build homes – worth over £40 million – will be knocked down and rebuilt, after more defects were discovered.

Oh dear! – Owl

ITV News www.itv.com 

Foundation issues were found at dozens of houses at the Darwin Green development in Cambridge – as developers admitted in June that 36 properties need to be demolished.

Now, that number has more than doubled to 83.

It was revealed in documents submitted to Cambridge City Council, as developers, Barratt and David Wilson Homes Cambridgeshire, applied for permission to demolish the homes.

They said tiles and other materials will be salvaged where possible, and concrete and brick will be crushed on site and reused.

At a city council meeting earlier this month, planning officers said they did not believe permission for the demolition work would be given before the end of October.

The Darwin Green estate is still being built and when completed, it will be made up of around 1,500 homes.

The homes sell for at least £575,000 each, with some selling for as much as £850,000.

Developers said in June that it was a “small number” of unoccupied homes that “did not meet its usual high standards”.

At the time, one councillor said people’s “lives and dreams” had been “shattered”, while another called for an independent inquiry.

“They know precisely who they are targeting, and where: the Tories, primarily in the south west and south east of England.”

“The party won’t publicly confirm how many seats it is focusing on at the next general election.

But expect it to be in the ballpark of 30 to 40.”

There is a survivor elation vibe to the Liberal Democrats.

Eight years on from their near death experience after the years of coalition government with the Conservatives, they’ve rediscovered their mojo.

By Chris Mason www.bbc.co.uk

And they know precisely who they are targeting, and where: the Tories, primarily in the south west and south east of England.

It is this more focused tilt at seats they hope to be winnable that gives the Lib Dems an outsized influence on the political psyche.

Yes, they are possessed of 15 MPs – just 2.3% of Parliament’s total – but a string of by-election victories over the Conservatives has given dozens of Tories a blast of the heebie-jeebies.

Oratorical arithmetic doesn’t tell you everything about a political leader’s approach, but sometimes it can tell you rather a lot.

By my reckoning Ed Davey referred to the Conservatives 27 times in his party conference speech here in Bournemouth.

Mentions of Labour? Just three.

Senior party figures describe their last general election campaign and performance as a “fiasco”.

The party got 3.7 million votes, an 11.5% share, and 11 seats, one fewer than in 2017.

Sir Ed’s critique has long been that the party spread itself way too thinly at the 2019 election, when his predecessor Jo Swinson talked of winning hundreds of seats.

To win seats under Westminster’s so-called first-past-the-post system, parties need geographically concentrated areas of support, not a smattering of votes in lots of places.

Breadth – driven by hubris – is now seen as an enemy.

The party won’t publicly confirm how many seats it is focusing on at the next general election.

But expect it to be in the ballpark of 30 to 40.

Recent council elections and by-elections have tempted party strategists to increase the number, but they do so with the shadow of 2019 loitering on their shoulder.

With a political focus on the Conservatives, and a geographical focus on plenty of places that voted for Leave in the EU referendum, the Lib Dem comfort foods of old are off the menu.

And little wonder: given their targeting, little wonder the Lib Dem leadership is not vociferously focused on bashing Brexit and putting up taxes.

The party’s long-standing commitment to putting a penny on income tax has been lobbed off Bournemouth Pier.

And while some activists here are desperate for the party to be far more full-blooded in its condemnation of Brexit, the leadership are allergic to the idea, detecting little appetite to focus on it from those they seek to woo.

Instead, there will be a relentless focus on the NHS, the cost of living and sewage in rivers and the sea.

The messaging will no doubt be tweaked from one place to the next, but these are seen as the touchstone issues in the places that matter for the Lib Dems.

Party staff are well aware of the observation of the elections guru Professor Sir John Curtice – who has pointed out that opinion polls suggest the Liberal Democrat national share of the vote remains glued at pretty much the same level it was at the last general election.

Their approach – their hope – is that this shouldn’t matter, if they maintain that targeted geographical and political focus on the places they can actually win.

The challenge they face is assembling the muscle to campaign in 30 to 40 places at the same time – rather different from throwing the entire resources of the party at a single by-election campaign.

Rishi Sunak must commit to levelling up England’s struggling seaside towns, or risk a political “tidal wave” at the next general election, a Conservative thinktank has warned.

Time and tide has run out for that on repeated occasions. – Owl 

Heather Stewart www.theguardian.com 

In a report entitled Troubled Waters, the thinktank Onward shows that communities set within 5km of England’s coast are poorer, sicker and more crime-ridden than their inland neighbours – and calls for a £500m regeneration package.

Grim statistics highlighted in the report include the fact that early, preventable deaths are 15% more likely in coastal areas than inland, crime rates are 12% higher and average disposable incomes £2,800 lower.

Seaside areas voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, with 83% of coastal seats voting leave, compared with 66% inland. These constituencies also heavily backed Boris Johnson’s “get Brexit done” message at the 2019 general election.

The report points out that coastal areas have tended to swing convincingly behind the winning party in recent polls – and could be poised to turn against the Tories.

“Where the coast goes, England follows. For nearly four decades, seaside towns and cities have backed the eventual election winners,” said the report’s author, Jenevieve Treadwell.

“Onward’s research exposes the growing gap between declining coastal communities and the rest of England. Unless the government fully embraces coastal areas in its levelling up agenda, they risk a tidal wave against them at the next election”.

Shadow levelling up secretary Angela Rayner blamed the plight of coastal areas highlighted in the report, on, “thirteen years of neglect and mismanagement by the Tories”.

“Our plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower will see a clean energy jobs boom in coastal communities and provide building blocks for a more sustainable future,” she added.

Onward highlights three underlying factors behind coastal deprivation: the decline of traditional industries such as fishing and shipbuilding, the seasonality of local economies, and the older populations in these areas.

“The fate of industrial communities along the coast mirrors those in manufacturing-intensive towns inland facing pressures from privatisations and globalisation,” the report says.

Tourism in traditional English seaside destinations has also faced long-term decline since affordable air travel arrived in the 1980s.

While these are longstanding trends, the gap between coastal areas and the rest of England has continued to widen in recent years – with inland economies growing more rapidly since the 2008 financial crisis.

Many seaside areas have struggled to attract investment over that period, and have often been left heavily reliant on seasonal tourism – which tends to have a relatively low-paid workforce.

By analysing detailed income data, Onward shows the stark differences that emerge, even over short distances. In Great Yarmouth, on the east coast, the average income is £23,600 a year, but just over 10km inland it jumps to £33,800.

The average worker in Workington, on the Cumbrian coast, earns £25,000; but less than 10km inland at Cockermouth the average is £34,200.

Coastal towns also have “some of the worst health outcomes in the country,” the report points out – as highlighted by England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, in his annual report two years ago.

Blackpool, in Lancashire, is what the report calls “an extreme example of coastal health challenges”, with the rate of preventable deaths for under 75-year-olds 88% higher than the average across England.

Not surprisingly, coastal neighbourhoods also tend to have more claimants of unemployment and other benefits than inland areas, because of “higher rates of poor, sick and elderly people”, the report says.

Other challenges include the fact that crime and antisocial behaviour tends to spike in seaside towns during the summer, the report shows – potentially overwhelming the local police force.

In Brighton, for example, nearly half of neighbourhoods have crime rates above the regional average. In the area surrounding the city’s Churchill shopping centre, there were more crimes than residents in 2021.

Even in coastal areas where deprivation is less apparent, Onward suggests high rates of second home ownership can lead to a lack of affordable housing for local people, with knock-on effects for businesses looking for staff.

The thinktank calls for the government to adopt a comprehensive package of policies to regenerate coastal areas. These include creating a coastal economy transformation programme worth up to £500m.

Onward suggests this could be modelled on the Biden administration’s Recompete Pilot in the US, which is investing in economically deprived areas. It suggests giving local bodies powers over infrastructure, planning and skills as part of the scheme.

Other policies the thinktank calls for include extra funding for coastal police forces to help them cope with the summer surge in crime and higher taxes on second homes left standing empty for long periods.

A spokesperson for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “We are spreading opportunity and prosperity across the UK as part of our ambitious long-term levelling-up programme.

“Since 2012 we have invested over £229m through the coastal communities fund to run 359 projects throughout the UK’s rural and coastal communities helping to create jobs and boost businesses.

“We have also allocated around £1bn from the levelling-up fund to 50 projects in coastal communities.”

Another government failure to provide essential housing. – Owl

Homes England’s Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) has delivered fewer than a third of its completions target so far, with just 4% for social rent #UKhousing

“The NAO described the AHP as a poorly designed scheme marred by inadequate oversight, of which the targets set were unachievable and, ultimately, it was a programme that lacked the necessary incentives to deliver homes in areas of highest need or unaffordability.”

[The Affordable Homes Programme is a scheme that provides grant funding to contribute towards the cost of building affordable housing. Over £7.39 billion of funding has been made available through Homes England from April 2021 to help pay for the construction of up to 130,000 new homes outside of London by March 2026. ]

by Stephen Delahunty www.insidehousing.co.uk 

According to a Homes England-commissioned review, 102,300, or 79%, of the programme’s completions target of 130,000 had been approved by March 2021. 

The majority of these, around 60,000, were allocated via the continuous market engagement (CME) route, with the rest through strategic partners. 

A total of 34,780 have been completed, 96% of which have been for affordable homeownership and affordable rent. Just 4% were for social rent.

At the same time, there have been 59,300 starts. All housing starts funded by the programme are to be achieved by March 2023, and all completions by March 2025.

The reviewers were asked to look at what housing had been delivered, the programme’s impacts, and which lessons can be learned at this point in the AHP.

Strategic partners promised to shake up the way social housing development was funded and move from piecemeal to programme-based handouts.

The long-term approach shifted the AHP away from the usual CME form of funding that had been in place. Under this, providers approached the government on a project-by-project basis.

As CME was seen as cumbersome and inefficient, for years, housing associations have been calling for a longer-term funding plan for development to replace it.

But the report found that fixed grant rates, which are an element of the strategic-partner model, made delivery challenging, given the wider inflationary pressures affecting the costs of development over the programme period.

The reviewers found that “most organisations with grant-funded schemes are confident they will meet delivery targets”, but there was some uncertainty on time and delivery, particularly for social rent, due to issues around land values and scheme-specific viability.

The report found that there has been a relative lack of strategic ‘added value’ in the strategic-partner model, beyond funding certainty and scale. Most delivery partners said it was unclear what this added value was at this point in the programme.

One respondent to the review said: “The rhetoric around strategic partnerships was never quite matched by the delivery. 

“That initial bit that was strategic approach to grant funding, has been very successful … [but what we had] was a better grant programme under strategic partnerships, rather than a more strategic relationship.”

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities forecast that it would spend £20.7bn on new grant-funded homes through three rounds of the AHP between 2015 and 2023.

Views on the effectiveness of programme management and administrative requirements were polarised. For both issues, respectively, around half of partners felt the process worked well, the other half did not.

This evaluation of the AHP contains similar criticisms to a National Audit Office (NAO) review in September last year. 

The NAO described the AHP as a poorly designed scheme marred by inadequate oversight, of which the targets set were unachievable and, ultimately, it was a programme that lacked the necessary incentives to deliver homes in areas of highest need or unaffordability.

In its quantitative analysis, this new review found that delivery had not been concentrated in places with more-pronounced affordability pressures.

On modern methods of construction (MMC), the report found the AHP had a limited effect on supporting the use of MMC, as no targets were established, and no incentives were put in place on grant rates or approvals to support delivery.

The report makes a number of recommendations that include an investigation into how the strategic-partner model affects the competition for land, and the effects on land values as they relate to affordable housing delivery.

The report also calls for greater transparency in reporting and greater flexibility of tenure.

In its foreword to the report, Homes England said the recommendations had already been incorporated into the latest round of the AHP.