Electoral Calculus continues to put Richard Foord ahead with 37% of the vote. But his lead is very much dependent on a sharply divided right wing. Unlike Exmouth & Exeter East, Reform is predicted to be polling on a par, if not ahead, of Simon Jupp. This looks potentially volatile to Owl

Turnout is predicted around 70% (compared to 57% in Exmouth & Exeter East), reflecting the much greater observed interest in this constituency. Low turnout usually benefits Conservatives with their strong tribal loyalty.