Could be about who should take over from LINO (Leader in name only) Ben Ingham in case of sickness or self-isolation. In fact those “wrestling like cats in a sack”  are government ministers.

Coronavirus update: cabinet squabble over who is to be Boris Johnson’s ‘designated survivor’

The Sunday Times  www.thetimes.co.uk 

Downing Street has drawn up a “designated survivor” plan to ensure the continuity of the government if Boris Johnson or his top aides fall sick, after a host of senior officials were forced to self-isolate last week. Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary who is also first secretary of state, will stand in for the prime minister if he contracts the coronavirus — but the decision has unleashed acidic exchanges among ministers jostling to be next in line.

Johnson has no virus symptoms but has not been tested. Raab has twice tested negative after contracting a cough.

The “designated survivor” plan, which echoes the plot of a television series in which Kiefer Sutherland’s character becomes president after the rest of the cabinet is killed in a terrorist attack, has unleashed a bout of infighting among cabinet ministers over the chain of command.

Raab, Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Matt Hancock, the health secretary, all chair cabinet committees co-ordinating the response. But Gove and Hancock are engaged in a turf war over who is in charge of the domestic strategy.

Gove is accused of “sniping” at Hancock in meetings of the Cobra emergency committee. “Michael thinks the Cabinet Office [which he runs] should be co-ordinating everything,” said a minister.

“Matt thinks that since he’s running the lead department he should be allowed to get on with it.”

Both rank lower on the cabinet hierarchy than Sunak, who has won plaudits for his handling of the economic response to the crisis.

A fellow minister said: “If Boris can’t do his job because he is incapacitated, a lot of people think that Michael should be running the show, not Raab. One of these people is Michael, of course.”

Another source accused ministers of “wrestling like cats in a sack”.

The succession plan has become more pressing after two senior civil servants were forced to self-isolate last week. Helen MacNamara, head of propriety and ethics, was off all week. She was joined by Mark Sweeney, an official who at the start of the week was chairing the main morning meeting of senior officials in Downing Street alongside Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s most senior aide.

“There is a serious concern that a lot of people could end up getting the virus,” said a government source.

By Tuesday, key figures, including the communications team under Lee Cain, were using the Zoom video conferencing app to dial in to key meetings in a bid to minimise unnecessary contact — with even officials physically in Downing Street joining meetings from different rooms to minimise the potential for infection. “We have to practise what we preach,” a No 10 source said.

This Tuesday’s cabinet meeting will also be conducted via a video call.

Under the survival plan every key player has emergency replacements. If Cummings, Cain or other senior staff are unable to work, they will be replaced by Isaac Levido, the Tory campaign director during the general election, or Paul Stephenson, the communications director for Vote Leave.

A special adviser at the department of health is also self-isolating. He shares a flat with a senior aide to Sunak, forcing the Treasury official to move into a hotel.

Life has to go on.

 Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com 

SEATON TRAMWAY

A new tramstop that provides a direct link to Seaton Wetlands is set to open later this year.

Plans for a new station on the Seaton Tramway have been given the go ahead by East Devon District Council planners.

Currently the Tramway, which runs between Seaton and Colyton, only stops off at Colyford, but soon, a new stop at the Seaton Wetlands will be created.

The current Tramway arrangement does not allow for trams to stop at proposed location of the halt, and so a new timetable tramstop is to be created at the existing Swan’s Nest ‘passing loop’.

The new tramstop would allow passengers to alight from the tram and access directly onto the Wetlands and enable visitors, including people with physical disabilities, to get off the trams and explore this stunning natural environment.

A moment of light relief!

Tianna Corbin  www.devonlive.com

Holy smoke! A Plymouth vicar whose niece is a ‘mermaid’ in Cornwall got a bit hot under the (dog) collar – when he accidentally set fire to himself during an online sermon.

Reverend Stephen Beach, of St Budeaux Parish Church, was preparing the church’s online Sunday Service, which featured five candles lit on a Christian Cross in the background. After leaning in a bit too close one of the candles caught his jumper which then caught on fire.

Sharing the video on Twitter, Laura Evans – St Ives Mermaid – said: “My uncle is the vicar of St Budeaux Parish. Last night he gave his online sermon and things got a bit hot under the (dog) collar.”

In the video, Rev Beach,says: “Well, welcome back to our last part of our online worship experience from St Budeaux Parish Church.

“The last section we call waiting and it’s a great thing to pause in the presence of God and ask the question ‘God what are you saying to us’ and then, of course, to wait for the answer.”

 “I’ve just been pausing between these… Oh dear I’ve just caught fire. Oh my word. Ha.”

The video was also shared on the church’s Facebook page. It has been watched 3,400 times, retweeted 24 and liked 106 times.

One user said: “This has made my day. Possibly my year. Please send my best wishes to your Uncle.”

Another added: “Thank you for lightening my life tonight, simply wonderful”

His niece reassured viewers that her uncle was ok and the only thing that was harmed was his jumper.

“A hole in his favourite sermon jumper but unharmed otherwise”

The video comes after the Church of England asked for all public worship to be suspended until further notice due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a way to allow people to still worship St Budeaux Parish will be giving sermons virtually.

 A few days ago, niece Laura Evans took to social media to express her concerns over tourists who are planning to ignore the government’s travel advice amid the coronavirus crisis and come to Cornwall.

She’s become well-known in Cornwall as the St Ives Mermaid and even started a campaign to be the first contestant on Strictly Come Dancing with a tail.

She made her name around four years ago, when she started washing up on West Cornwall beaches. She then  made her hobby into a business and has been delighting young and old alike at beaches and venues all across Cornwall.

Laura quickly gathered a lot of attention when she was spotted frolicking in St Ives harbour.

As time progressed her special appearances gained popularity, with hundreds heading to the beach to watch as she “washed up” and posed for photographs with excited children.

She also made a splash in the business world, with people now able to pay for special appearances at children’s parties, events or even hen dos.

A compelling, but long, account of the screeching U-Turn performed by No 10 last week. 

Learn what part Boris Johnson’s DiC (Disruptor in Chief) played. 

Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler  www.thetimes.co.uk 

“There was a moment, when the decisions were made, when they wondered what on earth they had done, how far they had been forced to go. A moment when they sat “shellshocked”, reflecting on choices that will change Britain for the rest of our lives. “It took us the weekend to get ourselves into the emotional position where we were comfortable taking the decisions we took,” a minister said. “They were massive.”

In politics, there is so much overstatement. Not this time. Ten days ago the government was slowly gearing up its response to the coronavirus crisis, downplaying the need for drastic measures. By Monday, Boris Johnson had ordered an expansion of the state not seen since the Second World War to save the National Health Service, an institution formed in the cauldron of that conflict. A wartime-style lockdown of the capital was under active consideration.

This weekend, the events of the last week have already changed health policy, changed the economy and are already changing the people involved.

The last time the British state began a multiple service attack on a lurking enemy — D-Day in 1944 — it became known as The Longest Day. On Thursday one cabinet minister reflected: “It feels like the longest week. It felt like Brexit was going to change the country but it is the coronavirus that will do that now.”

Senior figures in government are insistent that the changes they made to the virus clampdown were not “a U-turn” but a vehicle accelerating faster along a track already laid. In truth, they no more resemble what went before than the space shuttle did a Citroën 2CV.

Conversations with more than a dozen ministers and cabinet ministers, special advisers, Downing Street staff and civil servants reveal a human drama, of leaders tested as never before and of the single most frightening warning a British prime minister has received in eight decades.

A shock to the system

The meeting that will change British society for a generation took place on the evening of Thursday, March 12. That was when the strategic advisory group of experts (Sage in Whitehall parlance), the government’s committee of scientists and medics, gathered to examine modelling from experts at Imperial College London and other institutions.

The results were shattering. A week earlier, councils had been warned to expect about 100,000 deaths from Covid-19. Now Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, realised the estimates were wrong.

“Unmitigated, the death number was 510,000,” a senior figure said. “Mitigated we were told it was going to be 250,000. Once you see a figure of take no further action and a quarter of a million people die, the question you ask is, ‘What action?’” Another insider said: “There was a collision between the science and reality.”

Ministers had been on notice that drastic action might be needed since the virus first emerged in China’s Wuhan province in December. In January, Whitty told the cabinet: “It either stays in China or it will get everywhere.” For two months the government had time to prepare, but Johnson’s instincts were to resist a life-changing crackdown. “There was a lot of talk about how this was just a bit of flu,” one senior Tory recalled.

Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior aide, became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave of the disease next winter if Whitty’s prediction that 60% to 80% of the population became infected was right and the UK developed “herd immunity”.

At a private engagement at the end of February, Cummings outlined the government’s strategy. Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.

At the Sage meeting on March 12, a moment now dubbed the “Domoscene conversion”, Cummings changed his mind. In this “penny-drop moment”, he realised he had helped set a course for catastrophe. Until this point, the rise in British infections had been below the European average. Now they were above it and on course to emulate Italy, where the picture was bleak. A minister said: “Seeing what was happening in Italy was the galvanising force across government.”

By Friday, March 13, Cummings had become the most outspoken advocate of a tough crackdown. “Dominic himself had a conversion,” a senior Tory said. “He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’, to ‘let’s shut down the country and the economy.’”

Cummings had a “meeting of minds” with Matt Hancock, the health secretary, who wanted stronger action to prevent NHS hospitals being swamped. Department of Health officials had impressed on Hancock that the death rate in Wuhan province was 3.4% when the hospitals were overrun and 0.7% elsewhere in China.

Johnson had also been queasy about the previous original approach. “Boris hated the language of ‘herd immunity’ because it implied that it was OK for people to die,” a senior source said. “Matt hated the language because it implied we had given up. You’ve got to fight.”

Herd immunity

The problem for the government was that at the moment herd immunity was being banished from policy, it had become the focus of publicity. That Wednesday, David Halpern of the Whitehall “nudge unit” put the phrase in the public domain. Two days later, Vallance repeated the idea on Radio 4. With Italy, France and Spain going into lockdown, the government’s critics accused Johnson of refusing to act because he wanted people to get ill.

Insiders say it was “very bumpy” that Friday. “The meetings were very messy,” said one source. But when Johnson gathered his key advisers in the cabinet room at 9.15am last Saturday there was unanimity. Whitty and Vallance explained that Britain had been four weeks behind Italy “and now we are closer”.

The two experts, together with Hancock and Cummings, all delivered to Johnson one message: “Now is the moment to act.” The prime minister agreed: “We must work around the clock and take all necessary measures.” One of those present said: “The mood in the room was astonishing. You could tell that something very significant had shifted.”

Flesh was added to the bones in another crunch meeting in Downing Street on Sunday night and again in the 9.15am meetings and bilaterals between Johnson and key cabinet ministers throughout last week.

The media was briefed that elderly and vulnerable people might have to self-isolate for a period of months and that everyone else would have to engage in “social distancing” — working from home, avoiding groups and unnecessary outings. Most significantly, without a gargantuan package of support for businesses, renters and the self-employed, millions of jobs would be lost and the economy would collapse.

The economic response

On Tuesday morning, as he prepared to unveil details of Britain’s biggest peacetime financial package, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, gathered his closest aides and officials in his book-lined study in 11 Downing Street. “The scale of what is required is beyond anyone’s current imagination,” he said. “We have to remove all limiting assumptions.”

Over the weekend, Treasury officials worked through the night to prepare a package for business as if planning a full budget. “They did three months’ work in 48 hours,” a Treasury source said. It helped that Charles Roxburgh, the second permanent secretary, and Andrew Bailey, the new governor of the Bank of England, were both veterans of the response to the 2008 financial crash.

When he walked out with Johnson for a Downing Street news conference on Tuesday afternoon, aides were still finalising Sunak’s comments as the statement came off the printer. The chancellor had no time to rehearse or to prepare for questions but gave an assured performance as he outlined plans for £350bn of government-backed loans and cash grants for business. “We will do whatever it takes,” he repeatedly intoned.

Colleagues say Sunak’s confidence came because he is deeply engaged “in the weeds” of the policy. “Some ministers set the broad parameters for 15 minutes and the officials go away and do the work,” said one source. “He’s more hands-on. He prefers a 30 to 40-minute meeting where he can properly kick the tyres and help solve the problems. He’s across the detail.”

Measures to help save jobs took longer, with a plan for the government to pay a high percentage of wages in cash-strapped firms finally being announced on Friday afternoon. Sunak agreed the package in a meeting with Johnson on Thursday night in which the pair shared a vegetarian takeaway pizza. The prime minister said: “In 2008, the government looked after the bankers. Now we must make sure we look after the people first.”

At 11.30pm the chancellor was sending messages to his permanent secretary thanking him for the “superb” work of some officials. A colleague said: “He’s got the brainpower. More importantly, he’s got the character for this moment.”

Sunak will need it because the risks are immense. One friend said: “Rishi is very acutely aware that we are in danger of driving the economy off a cliff by shutting everything up. All this talk of bouncing straight back . . . we will have no airlines to bounce straight back with if we’re not careful.”

The prime minister’s big decision on Wednesday was that schools would close on Friday, a decision arrived at with Gavin Williamson, the education secretary. They decided to act as many schools took matters into their own hands, to try to ensure childcare for key workers.

It was another decision Johnson had resisted the week before, but cabinet ministers are clear that behind the scenes he has been far more decisive at crunch moments than his predecessor. “He’s been absolutely brilliant,” said one. “He makes decisions fast.” Another said: “If Theresa May was still be in charge we would, by now, have just about signed off a request that people wash their hands.” Another cabinet source added: “And if Philip Hammond was still chancellor he would have refused even to pay for that.”

Nonetheless, even admirers admit that Johnson is not finding it easy to project the same decisiveness in his somewhat hesitant public appearances. “He’s a naturally cheerful person,” one colleague said. “He finds it difficult to deliver bad news.” Business leaders were surprised during a conference call on Monday, when he was trying to persuade them to build ventilators, to hear him describe the effort as “Operation Last Gasp”.

Whitty and Vallance began their own press conferences at the end of the week amid concern that some of Johnson’s pronouncements — including a claim that they could “turn the tide” within 12 weeks — were not grounded in evidence. “Some of the experts are appalled by some of his claims,” a Whitehall source said. A Tory aide said: “Boris looks haunted. It’s like when George W Bush came in thinking he was going to be the education-reforming president and had to deal with the war on terror.” Another senior Tory said: “Boris is shellshocked.”

Lockdown

Johnson, who is a civil libertarian at heart, spent the week resisting Cummings’s demands for a full-blown lockdown of London — banning inhabitants from travelling outside the city.

Discussions about a shutdown were first aired at Cobra on Friday, March 13. By Tuesday the news was leaking after a Cabinet Office official emailed other departments to ask how a curfew might work. A Whitehall insider said: “It was quickly established that the Paris model — with people being issued paperwork and allowed out of the family home one at a time would not work.”

A senior Tory said: “Boris really doesn’t want to shut stuff down. He is more worried than most about the economic impact but also the social impact of locking people up in their homes for months. Fundamentally there is a Boris-Dom cleavage. First Boris bottled herd immunity. Now he’s bottling lockdown.”

Nonetheless, Johnson managed to fuel speculation that there would be troops on the streets and a travel ban by telling Wednesday’s press conference that the government “will not hesitate” to take further steps. “We live in a land of liberty,” he said. “But we will rule nothing out.”

On Thursday the PM’s spokesman was forced to say there were “no plans” to close down London transport and “zero prospect” of restrictions on travel. On Friday less draconian restrictions, closing pubs, clubs and restaurants nationwide, were unveiled. “Whoever was briefing details of the full lockdown is bordering on a national security threat,” said one Tory with links at the top of Whitehall. “They are promulgating misinformation and spreading alarm.”

Another source said the loose talk could have seen wealthy “superspreaders” flee London to infect people elsewhere: “If you’re going to do a lockdown you don’t tell people first or you find they are all on the roof getting the last helicopter out of Saigon.”

Nonetheless, Whitehall officials are quietly drawing up lists of key workers who would be issued with a travel permit if a full crackdown follows. Officials have also been working on a “lockdown list” of products that must be manufactured by law. They may yet be necessary. A minister said: “We won’t know for two weeks if the current measures are enough.”

Communication problems

On Thursday, after criticism from ministers and MPs that No 10 had failed to provide clear messages to the public, Cummings and the communications director, Lee Cain, summoned the team who won the general election.

Isaac Levido, the Tory campaign director, went to No 10, with former Vote Leave hands Paul Stephenson and Henry de Zoete on a video conference call. Together they devised a slogan “Stay home. Save lives. Protect our NHS,” which was rolled out on Friday.

The No 10 morning meeting is now held on the Zoom video app to allow more home working. To try to raise morale, Johnson has also sent video messages thanking civil servants for their hard work. On Tuesday he returned from a morning run with his dog Dilyn to find his spokesman, James Slack, at the back of No 10 wishing his mother a happy birthday. Johnson took the phone and spoke to her for 10 minutes.

However, many sources report that the Downing Street machine is fast running out of steam. “Everyone is working to capacity and is absolutely exhausted,” said one insider. “It’s utter chaos and there is no end in sight.”

Businesses phoning up to offer help say Downing Street seems “swamped”. One ventilator manufacturer claimed on Newsnight that the government had not put in any orders — though sources say 1,400 firms are offering to build them and by Friday morning eight companies who have never made a ventilator were turning them out.

Some in Downing Street are turning to drink. An aide joked on Thursday that they had run out of hand sanitiser and were “using the contents of a vodka miniature” instead. Others are recruiting old friends. Gabriel Milland, a former head of press to Michael Gove, was drafted into No 10 last week. Tom Shinner, the civil servant who did the most to prepare Britain for a no-deal Brexit, who left the government last year, has also been rehired.

Ministerial infighting

The toll is telling on ministers and tensions between them have bubbled over. “It’s miserable and horrible and you just have to get on with it,” a cabinet minister said.

The “core four” in all the key meetings are the chairmen of four inter-ministerial committees: Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, who chairs the international committee; Sunak, who chairs the economic committee; Hancock, who chairs the health committee; and Gove, who chairs the other public sector committee.

Numerous sources say Gove has repeatedly sniped at Hancock. “There have been tensions over where responsibilities begin and end,” one observed. Some ministers are lobbying to see Gove take charge if Johnson is incapacitated with Covid-19 or if he takes paternity leave, though Sunak ranks higher in the cabinet rankings on the gov.uk website and the job is likely to be Raab’s, since he is officially “first secretary of state”.

But a minister said: “Considering the scale of the massive decisions we have been making it has been remarkably collegiate.”

Ministers hope the dramatic events of the last week will reduce the likely death toll from Covid-19 to “a bad seasonal flu”, which means tens, not hundreds, of thousands of deaths. The worst recent year was 2014-15 when 28,000 people died.

But there are perils ahead. “Boris and his team are absolutely terrified because it will not be the NHS by end of this,” a Whitehall source said. “It will be the corona health service and will just be there to pump oxygen into patients.”

MPs speculate that there will be two big inquiries — an international one into the origins of the virus in China’s live animal “wet markets”; and a second into the government’s preparations and policy decisions. “If we end up like Italy in two weeks’ time and 30-year-old doctors are dropping dead, the government is going to be in big trouble,” a Labour MP said.

Shaking the world

Amid the frenzy of events, more thoughtful Tories have concluded that the decisions taken last week will change three key aspects of the way the world works. One said: “One is the debate around globalisation. Is Trump right that we just need to build bigger walls, or is Gordon Brown right that global problems need global solutions? The second is Socialism v The Free Market. Large parts of the economy are going to be socialised after this. I fear it leads to nationalists and socialists winning, to national socialism.”

The third fissure may yet be the worst. “It’s the intergenerational question. It is unsustainable to have people in their youth put their whole life on hold for months while the economy tanks to save a 91-year-old who would have died six months later anyway.”

Whatever the outcome, ministers have little doubt about the significance of the virus. “It’s shaking the world,” one said. Another, who has been up to his neck in the dramas of the past three years, was more prosaic: “My obituary gets more interesting every week.”

The sadness is that there will be many other obituaries to be written too.”

No it’s not EDDC – far too tricky for them.

North Devon Council has joined Cornwall in asking the Government for guidance.

Where is  County Leader John Hart and when will he start to lead?

Remember  what he said about flooding? “Self-help is going to be the order of the day.”

Joel Cooper  www.devonlive.com 

(Raised with Secretary of State 20 March)

A Devon council says it is asking Central Government for clear guidance about the status of holiday parks in Devon.

Several holiday parks across the county say they are remaining open and expecting visitors to arrive.

However, concerns have been raised about people travelling to the area from places such as London where the spread of the virus is more developed.

Some people are worried this could cause the virus to spread further in Devon, particularly in areas where there is a vulnerable or aging population.

There are also concerns about how local supermarkets – many of which are already seeing depleted stocks – would cope with increased numbers of customers.

Several holiday accomodation providers in the North Devon area have taken to Facebook to say they are planning to stay open, but have taken Government guidance about coronavirus on board.

Some are still promoting last minute vacancies – which has prompted a backlash from many in local communities.

One person commented on Facebook: “Our local shops are empty already, let alone people travelling here putting peoples lives in danger.  This NEEDS TO STOP.

Another said it felt like some businesses were “putting personal profit before the health of local people”.

As well as holiday parks, there are also concerns about campsites, second homes, Airbnb properties and hotels.

North Devon Council’s chief executive officer, Ken Miles, has told Devon Live he will be raising the subject with the Government this afternoon and asking for “clear advice” on the matter.

Boris Johnson and his Government are currently promoting social distancing  and urging people to avoid places like pubs, restaurants, theatres and cinemas.

Several businesses across Devon have already announced their closures for the foreseeable future.  This includes hotels, restaurants, pubs and attractions.

Numerous events have also been cancelled including music festivals, literary events, theatrical performances and school events.

Owl believes we have a complex attitude in relation to our armed forces, and governments have been reluctant to use them in support of home based civil emergencies in the past. (Some trace this back to the Civil War when England first acquired a professional standing army). Other nations are not quite so squeamish, indeed the US has a quasi-military National Guard which is deployed frequently. 

This article discusses the announcement to deploy troops. Certainly they can help logistically, and as Owl has pointed out, there doesn’t seem to be a clear command and control structure to deal with local responses. I.e. who makes decisions and to whom are they accountable running the gamut from operational, tactical and strategic decisions. in a geographic area run by a mix of county, and unitary local authorities with a quite separate health care system superimposed on top of it all.

So far the Police seem to be running the show.

Deploying troops to help fight coronavirus is the right move.

 Mary Dejevsky @IndyVoices  www.independent.co.uk 

It was a low-key announcement that was rather drowned out by the decision to close all schools forthwith. But its significance was at least as great. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has doubled the number of troops on standby to help respond to the coronavirus emergency in Britain and issued a call to reservists.

There is now a 20,000-strong special “Covid Support Force” on stand-by – quite a commitment for a country whose combined armed force strength is less than 150,000.

Such a decision is surely wise. France is already using its military to airlift acutely-ill patients from areas of the country where medical facilities are stretched to others where there is still capacity. In Italy, military vehicles are transporting coffins from hospitals to crematoriums. Soldiers on patrol are in any case a regular sight at main stations and airports across Italy, as they are in Belgium and some other European countries. In Spain, the military is being deployed to patrol some cities to enforce the lockdown.  

But UK governments have generally seemed reluctant to deploy the military in civilian situations, preferring to rely on the police and other emergency services. Small numbers assisted during recent floods, and in August RAF helicopters were sent to help reinforce a Derbyshire dam. The military was mobilised, too, during the 2001 outbreak of foot and mouth disease. They were not called, though, to the Grenfell Tower fire, where their expertise and equipment might have usefully supplemented that of the London Fire Brigade.

After Donald Trump ordered a hospital ship to New York City harbour to address a shortage of hospital beds because of coronavirus and there were suggestions that something similar might be tried here, the British attitude was well summed up by the comment of a military official said: “Why would you put patients on a draughty, remote ship when there are hotel rooms lying empty? … It would be better to book up the Holiday Inn next to the hospital.”

Given this background, the defence secretary’s announcement has to be a gauge of how seriously the current emergency is seen from Whitehall. But why the relative unwillingness of UK governments to call upon the military, compared with governments elsewhere in Europe and even the United States?

One reason might be the now largely folk memory of the rejoicing that greeted the end of Second World War conscription. For many, the end of conscription signified the real end of the war, and there has been almost no appetite to revive compulsory military service since – even though some countries, such as Sweden, have recently done so. The UK prides itself on having an entirely professional military, keeps the armed forces and civilians in quite separate boxes and shies away from anything that might mix the two.

Another might be a prevalent view at the top of the armed services that the job of the military is to fight wars, or at very least contribute to international peace-keeping. This attitude is encapsulated in the well-known quip by the then US national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, to the effect that it was no business of the 82nd Airborne to “escort kids to kindergarten”. She was talking about the aftermath of the Bosnian war at the time, but you can see her point. The training and sophisticated equipment of an elite parachute regiment officer could be seen as squandered on largely civilian operations.

In today’s UK context, these misgivings might be coupled with two further concerns. One – that the diversion of precious troops to supposedly “softer” civilian tasks could leave the already depleted armed forces unequal to their prime purpose of defending the nation. The second – less noble, perhaps – that any acceptance of an enhanced civilian role for the armed forces could undermine their claims for expensive new military hardware at a time when security policy is under review.  

As of now, it not at all clear when, or even whether, the military will be deployed in response to the coronavirus crisis. According to the defence secretary, it will only be mobilised in response to formal requests from government departments. I suspect, though, that many – sensing the doom-laden uncertainty all around them – would find even a limited military presence a good deal more reassuring than alarming.

On the rare occasions when the armed forces have been deployed at home in any numbers, the response is invariably positive. People are grateful when uniformed troops show up in emergencies: they are trusted as the supreme professionals. In 2012, after G4S – the private security company contracted to staff the security checkpoints at the London Olympics, the decision was taken to have the military step in. And their contribution was hailed as a huge success. They were well-trained, efficient and down-to-earth.

So why has no real attempt has been made to replicate or capitalise on this experience, because a more visible role for the military at home could have a potentially beneficial effect on the country at large. It could help to salve a lot of wounds.

The UK’s recent involvement in failed wars has left a legacy of popular mistrust, both towards governments and the military command. From Iraq through Afghanistan to Libya, it has been hard to identify much success. There is little appetite for any new foreign intervention. In 2011, voters lobbied their MPs to prevent a new military intervention in Syria and David Cameron accepted defeat. Trainers and special forces were dispatched nonetheless.

The more realistic among the top brass have acknowledged at various times the regrettable fraying of what is known as the “armed forces covenant” – according to which those who serve in the military should be treated with fairness and respect by the civilian community. A potent symbol of how relations between the armed forces and the people had become fractured was what happened in the Wiltshire town of Wootton Bassett, when people flocked to pay their respects to those killed in Afghanistan as their coffins were conveyed to the church from RAF Lineham.

Between 2008 and 2011, this mournful public spectacle became a source not of pride, but of embarrassment, to the military establishment, and the route was changed. It would now appear, from the number of senior military figures decrying the imminent UK withdrawal from Afghanistan that some military leaders and politicians are still in denial about the extent of public support for their ventures.

Deploying a special military contingent to help with the coronavirus crisis could help re-establish the ties that have been lost between the armed forces and civilians in this country. The armed forces have the sort of training, experience and equipment for extreme situations – that, alas, could be sorely needed in the coming weeks.

They have already been involved in evacuations of UK citizens from as far away as Japan and Cuba. Seeing them hard at work at home could help boost not only morale (theirs and ours), but public support for the armed forces covenant and even for a (slightly) enhanced military budget.

Owl could add that whilst flying around Owl’s patch many, many local businesses are offering similar services. The local press doesn’t seem to be taking a consistent approach to publicising this. Hopefully, since these are local services, local people will find out relatively easily.

Other Councils might usefully follow Sidmouth Town Council’s lead on their web site.

Will this bring a welcome renaissance in shopping locally? 

Philippa Davies  www.sidmouthherald.co.uk 

People having to self-isolate in the Sid Vale, because of the coronavirus, are being offered home deliveries by many local shops and businesses.

Food and drink, takeaway meals, household essentials, books, computer supplies and other goods are all available to order.

Some suppliers are providing the delivery service for nothing, others are charging a small fee or specifying a minimum pre-paid order.

In keeping with the guidelines on avoiding social contact, the delivery drivers will leave items in porches or on the doorstep.

Sidmouth Town Council will be distributing leaflets on the local businesses offering home deliveries, and is also keeping a regularly updated list on its website

Among those on board in Sidmouth are Woolbrook News, the Spar supermarket, Drews, The Dairy Shop, Ganesha Wholefoods, Gliddons, Crane and Kind, Sidsoft, the Balfour Arms, The Courtyard and Winstone’s bookshop.

Winstone’s is also offering postal deliveries for customers further afield.

Manager Carl East said he would do his best to keep the shop open, but recognises that many people are no longer able to visit in person.

He said: “If you are in self-isolation you are very welcome to give us a call. We will happily give you recommendations over the phone and place orders. Payments can be made securely by phone, and a member of the team will be out making local deliveries in in the afternoons.”

Fields department store already offered home and mail order deliveries, and has just introduced a new takeaway menu from its coffee shop.

The homewares and DIY store Abbotts, which has branches in Ottery St Mary and Seaton, is offering free deliveries in both towns.

Deliveries will be made for a minimum spend in the wider area.

Manager Chris Abbott said: “A lot of people in self-isolation are worried and scared, and rightly so. You really get a feel for people in that scenario.

“We will provide a ‘yodel’ style delivery, so no handshakes, hugs, or high fives.

“We will pop your delivery on the doorstep, and ring the doorbell, and retreat to a 2m distance.”

The Lamb and Flag pub in Ottery is offering takeaway meals, and the Coldharbour Farm Shop in East Hill is providing home deliveries.

Cornwall has become the first major UK tourism destination to tell visitors to stay away until the coronavirus crisis is over.

Visit Cornwall published a statement saying: “Visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time, in order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall.”

The organisation is critical of the government’s “lack of clarity” about whether domestic tourism is acceptable.

Simon Calder Travel Correspondent  www.independent.co.uk 

On 16 March, the prime minister said: “Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel.”

But Visit Cornwall says: “At present non-essential travel appears to focus purely on the use of public transport. 

“It does not provide any clarity about whether going for a short break or a holiday in the UK is deemed to be non-essential travel.

“Given the fast escalating situation, Visit Cornwall believes that a holiday or short break should be deemed as non-essential travel.

“This would avoid the confusion that currently exists and mean that customers’ personal travel insurance should reimburse visitors who choose to cancel rather than postpone their holiday.

“We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.”

The Cornish attitude is in marked contrast to the other side of the River Tamar. 

Visit Devon is telling prospective tourists: “Devon is very much open to visitors and we invite you to come and walk across our beautiful countryside, get some fresh air on our stunning beaches and enjoy our county by remaining aware of social distancing and protecting yourselves and your family by regularly washing your hands.”

The Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster, Liz Saville Roberts MP, has written to the health secretary urging him “to issue an immediate no-travel directive”. There are concerns that second-home owners are choosing to self-isolate at their properties in Wales, potentially adding to pressures on overstretched rural health services.

Tourist destinations elsewhere in Britain are still seeking to attract visitors. For example, Visit Blackpool says: “The resort remains very much open for business.

“Blackpool’s famed range of free attractions are also open including the beaches, promenade, Comedy Carpet and Stanley Park.”

Visit Scotland says: “In light of Covid-19, it’s unlikely we’ll be welcoming as many visitors as our friendly, passionate and unique country deserves.

“If you are planning a trip to Scotland in the next few months … make sure you check with your travel and accommodation providers before travelling.”

With good weather forecast for Mother’s Day weekend, the National Trust says: “The Trust’s coast and countryside places will be open as usual with any car park charges suspended and the charity is working where it can to keep outdoor spaces open and free to access.”

The charity’s nature expert and writer, Andy Beer, said: “Although our coast and countryside will be open as usual, we’d encourage people to stay local and enjoy the first moments of spring where they are rather than making an unnecessary journey.”

Earlier this week the National Trust announced that it would close its houses, shops and cafes to restrict the spread of coronavirus.

Before we get to that Owl dares to ask the question: Who is in charge, who takes control? 

Clear Command and Control in emergency situations like this is essential to coordinate actions which are likely to be multi-agency  and resource constrained. 

We emerged from WWII with a strong, largely volunteer, civil defence organisation. Facing the prospect of major civil emergencies arising from nuclear war, contingency plans were developed. They were not widely publicised for obvious reasons. In the worst case scenario local administration (i.e.government) devolved to LA Chief Executives, who assumed absolute power, vested through the Home Office. [Think Mark Williams grabbing his chosen few, diving into the secret bunker built under Blackdown House  – No? Well in fact these plans pre-dated district councils so more likely County CE- the bunkers are still out there somewhere.]

For many years Counties used to have a formal emergency planning officer, often retired Army Officers, not taking charge but preparing contingency plans, but these look to be long gone. 

Owl finds a summary of the current situation in a  2017 House of Commons Briefing Paper, written after Grenfell Tower, it’s all very wooly: 

file:///home/chronos/u-06eb1db4f30497d5c37620af3a3a7c864a5d7095/MyFiles/Downloads/CBP-8016.pdf

From (Page 10):

Who leads the emergency response? The emergency response is based around the concepts of command, control and cooperation and operates at three levels – operational, tactical and strategic. …….   

The structure for responding to any emergency will depend on the nature and circumstances of that emergency. Single agency groups will take command of their own personnel and assets, but a multi-agency Strategic Coordinating Group may be convened to provide coordination – but not control – across agencies:

“ 4.2.1. (…) No single responding agency has command authority over any other agencies‘ personnel or assets. Where multi-agency co-ordinating groups are established to define strategy and objectives, it is expected that all involved responder agencies will work in a directed and co-ordinated fashion in pursuit of those objectives.” ref.18

A major incident has been declared by Devon & Cornwall Police in response to the outbreak of COVID-19, (coronavirus).

Richard Booth  www.devonlive.com

The declaration has been made to ensure that all agencies across the Devon & Cornwall Local Resilience Forum are co-ordinated and working as effectively as possible at a time of critical need.

It comes as Boris Johnson said the Government is telling pubs, cafes, nightclubs, bars, restaurants, theatres, leisure centres and gyms to close from tonight to fight coronavirus.

TACC Glen Mayhew, chair of the Devon and Cornwall LRF, said: “We are facing a critical public health situation nationwide and it is vital for blue light responders and partner organisations across our communities to work together and deal with the challenges which lie ahead over the coming days and weeks.

“Declaring this a major incident means we can put in place well-rehearsed structures and mechanisms for multi-agency working. Resilience plans already exist to help us protect and enable us to support our communities in the best way possible – keeping them informed and able to function.

“This has not been caused by a rise in cases of COVID-19, (coronavirus), in our region or because demand has meant agencies are unable to cope – it is a supportive measure to give strength to all agencies and partners and ensure we can assist each other at a time when we are all likely to see an effect on staffing and our respective agency’s resilience.”

Mr Mayhew added: “The public should not be alarmed, but continue to follow guidance from Public Health England and the Government around measures to reduce risk associated with COVID-19, (coronavirus), access to critical health services, social distancing and self-isolation.

“Whether it be police officers, those working in social care or some of the many hundreds of volunteers in our communities, we need to do our absolute utmost to protect and help the elderly and most vulnerable people in our communities.

“We know there are many strong and resilient communities across the peninsula and Isles of Scilly. It is now, at this time of most need, that we must come together as a partnership and support our communities as one.”

Political Editors Letter -The Independent

@andywoodcock  www.independent.co.uk

The past few days in Westminster have been like nothing that anyone in parliament can remember.

The doors are still open and debates still taking place, but the palace has lost its bustle and many MPs think it’s only a matter of time before they will be sent home.

Parliament continued to sit throughout the Second World War. But that was a time when the threat came from outside, from enemy bombing, not from MPs infecting one another – and potentially their constituents – with a deadly virus.

Indications are that the Commons authorities will do everything they can to avoid actually taking the hugely symbolic act of closing the door on the home of the UK’s democracy.

But there are discussions under way at the highest levels on options for reducing the risk of spread, largely by limiting the requirement for MPs and officials to come into close contact.

On Wednesday, MPs were told to enter the chamber for prime minister’s questions only if they were listed to speak, and to maintain their distance from one another on the green benches if they did.

And there are proposals to allow voting by paper slip rather than by walking through the crowded lobbies, allowing votes to go ahead with fewer than 40 MPs present or even permitting party whips to cast a vote on behalf of all members.

While all MPs accept the need to minimise the risk of infection, an increasing number feel uneasy with anything that will limit their ability to scrutinise the government – particularly at a time when a new Coronavirus Bill is granting ministers sweeping new powers to do anything from shutting airports to suspending jury inquests.

Hence the flurry of attempts to restrict the duration of the emergency powers, with Labour insisting they should be renewed every six months, rather than allowed to last for two years as ministers propose.

And hence the increasing chatter in the tearooms about a government of national unity.

Boris Johnson has repeatedly compared his administration’s actions on Covid-19 to those of a wartime government. In both world wars, it was a matter of months before prime ministers formed coalition ministries.

Already MPs are starting to ask: if the country is being asked to pull together in a great national effort, if there is any question of infringing on parliament’s ability to scrutinise the executive; and if ministers are proposing to take on extraordinary powers lasting as long as two years, is it time to invite leading representatives of opposition parties into the government?

It seems improbable to most now. But recently, what seems improbable one day has a habit of coming true two or three days later.

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock Political editor

Our Natural Health Service

In 1945, the nation was promised and needed its new National Parks, described by Ministers at the time as the “Natural Health Service”. These were created to help offer improved health and wellbeing for everyone, alongside the newly created NHS. Today, both the NHS and our National Parks are a cherished national resource and play a vital role in the wellbeing of our communities and society.

A Dorset National Park was recommended in the 1945 first official report on National Parks. The Government has made a commitment to establish new National Parks and we look forward to early action to make this commitment a reality. National Parks help people and nature to thrive. More than ever, Dorset deserves and needs a National Park. It is unfinished business and long overdue.

Some of the building blocks are in place. At this challenging time for us all, we can celebrate the announcement of the UK’s first Super National Nature Reserve here in Dorset: see www.theguardian.com . Seven organisations and landowners have come together to create this Super-NNR. As Environment Minister Rebecca Pow said, this is a landmark project: “Purbeck Heaths is a trailblazing example of how landscape-scale conservation can help wildlife thrive, improve people’s well-being, and build resilience to climate change.” The Super-NNR is a welcome step towards a Dorset National Park. A National Park would bring additional resources and expertise so we can create even more linkages and stronger partnerships across Dorset. “Good things happen when people work together.”

Working through partnerships lies at the heart of the way National Parks operate. A Dorset National Park Partnership should be part of a positive and restorative vision for our future. It would contribute to a successful and sustainable economic recovery and a greener future for farming and the countryside and help ensure a thriving, healthy future for our communities, economy and environment, Dorset-wide. It would work to support and improve physical and mental health and wellbeing for local people and visitors, of all ages. As independent research shows, a National Park can deliver great benefits for Dorset and the nation.

Dorset’s environment is here to inspire and encourage us all, lift our spirits and provide space for us to enjoy a breath of fresh air! With a National Park we can achieve even more for nature and for people. Please enjoy the website, keep in touch with National Park News, join the Facebook group and share your photographs.

Keep safe and best wishes from the Dorset National Park Team.

The coronavirus emergency is often spoken of as a war, as indeed it is. Like all wars, it is asking a lot of people, it is reminding us all of how much we rely on “key workers” and how much we take many of our public services and our way of life for granted. When we emerge from this crisis, the world will feel very different and there will be a lasting public impact.

Sean O’Grady @_seanogrady  www.independent.co.uk

Wars leave a lasting social and political legacy. By the looks of it, so will the war against Covid-19. The welfare state is making a bit of a comeback. Frankly, for some time now the social security system was something that most of the population didn’t give much thought to. Now, there is talk of another million on the dole. People are suddenly facing up to being thrown back on their own scant resources. They are realising just how useless the modern welfare safety net can be – the £94 per week for statutory sick pay being the emblem of all the injustices now bundled into the dysfunctional Universal Credit system.

Even those fortunate enough to hang on to their jobs will be having second thoughts about an economic system that can see you go from full time, if precarious, employment – “just about managing” – to eviction and homelessness in a matter of weeks. How many Conservatives can be content to see people who have built up their own successful small business over decades pushed into poverty through no fault of their own? Or “rescued” via another huge debt loaded into their backs? There is a powerful sense of injustice around these shocking events.

The NHS will also come out of this renewed public respect. Even The Sun has got behind NHS staff in the way usually reserved for the armed forces, with an “I heart NHS” poster. I doubt any political party will ever dare to underfund the NHS again under the cover of “austerity” or “reform”. No ifs, no buts, the NHS will get the kit and the staff it needs. Suddenly we realise the inestimable value – and reliability – of a system of social insurance. There is no private insurance-based health system that could ever deal with an epidemic such as this. That is a crucial, abiding lesson of current events. We seem to have had enough of private affluence and public squalor. 

I have to add a note of bitterness. Remember how, not so long ago, the same sections of the media now praising brave NHS medics were publishing all those stories about the inefficient, bloated wasteful health service with its greedy overpaid doctors, waiting lists and dirty wards? Remember the denials and spin during the election about the boy on the floor of a ward?

From some columnists’ half-baked accounts about the superbug and the like, you’d think that anyone was lucky to get out alive from a spell in an NHS hospital. There was lots of talk about reducing it to a “safety net” service for the poor who can’t afford health insurance. It was allowed the bare minimum, if that, to try to keep up with public expectations. Its inevitable failings were used to justify further cuts, thus setting the NHS up for more failure and justifying dismantlement and marketisation. The American system was lauded for its lavish care. The Europeans were set up as a model of competitive efficiency. Not so much now.

Much the same goes for the BBC. All of a sudden, a nation stuck at home worrying is turning to a gold standard, trusted source for facts, guidance and realistic reporting. The BBC will entertain the nation as it grinds through this crisis, with its box sets of brilliance, deprived as we are of sport, cinema, theatre and most firms of culture and diversion. Netflix doesn’t come close. The Beeb is even going to educate the kids. It has been temporarily relieved of its absurd obligation to act as an arm of the DWP, means-testing licences for the over-75s. I suspect that idea may be quietly dropped forever when this lousy war is over. 

So we know now how much we rely on our under-appreciated, neglected public services, the welfare state and key workers. Things will change. Just as the Great War gave us votes for women and council housing, and the Second World War, the Beveridge report and the original welfare state, so now will this “war” yield some unexpected revolutions in attitudes and our way of life. 

The British people aren’t turning socialist as such, but there will be some hard thinking. We see all too clearly there is such a thing as society and no substitute for bold state action. As people asked in 1945, if we can do all these things in War time, and borrow such huge sums, why not in peacetime? It’s all a bit too late for Jeremy Corbyn though. 

Owl understands the desperate state of the hospitality industry facing confused messages coming from the government.  On the one hand we are , for very good reasons, being told to avoid cafes, restaurants and pubs but on the other they haven’t been ordered to close.

Devon Coastal Cottages has come up with this innovative idea (see below).

However, self-isolate means just that. It doesn’t mean jump into a car and bomb down to Devon. Nor is it helpful in terms of epidemic control to encourage a mass exodus from the country’s hotspot – London – to  dispersal within the country.

Devon, as previous articles have shown, is potentially very vulnerable and needs cocooning.

Our two MP’s (and County leaders) have been silent on this legitimate, but sensitive, issue.

How Are We Doing Our Bit To Help Others During COVID19? www.stoneleigh-holiday-park.com

Are you worried about your loved ones and looking for a remote place to self-isolate and protect your friends and family. 

We are now offering self-isolation zero contact packages safe and remote cottages.

According to the latest news and figures from our government, to date 19th March 953 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in London. London and possibly other cities and other built-up areas could soon go into lockdown, to toughen measures on the coronavirus. As the disease is spreading rapidly through the capital, Boris Johnson has stated he will not hesitate to roll out this tougher action when necessary to protect people’s health.

Sidmouth Cottages are now offering an ideal opportunity for individuals and family’s to self-isolate in this Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty in the countryside of Devon by the sea and to leave the city behind and protect yourself and your family…….

​

​

(and introduces the House to a bit of dialect). Owl needs to explain that some conventions apply to maiden speeches. They should: relate in some way to the subject of the debate; be brief (about 5 minutes); be uncontroversial (not politically contentious or critical); contain remarks about your constituency; contain a tribute to your predecessor, regardless of political party. 

Any rawd, yer tiz (anyway, here it is):

Second Reading: Birmingham Commonwealth Games Bill (Lords) [Owl would soon lose patience with the this procedural stuff]  

It’s not about me, it’s about you – my maiden speech

www.simonjupp.org.uk

Mr Deputy Speaker, thank you.

Firstly, I will take this opportunity to thank my predecessor, Sir Hugo Swire for his service to East Devon and this House.

Sir Hugo served the constituency and his country with distinction.

He held several influential roles in Government including Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

I count Sir Hugo as a friend, as do many in East Devon, because his efforts helped many people I meet across the constituency every week.

This house is a broad church of opinion, skills and expertise – no matter which rosette was worn on a dark and cold night last December.

Party differences should be cast aside as every member of this house comes together to back Great Britain as we become a truly Global Britain.

And the Commonwealth Games is a superb opportunity to demonstrate the values we hold dear.

Freedom, democracy, tolerance and decency.

71 nations will come together in Birmingham to celebrate their vibrant cultures and community spirit with a fair bit of friendly competition.

As we spread our wings and embark on a new journey as an independent nation – we must always remember the rallying cry in 2016 from communities who felt left behind.

Many still do.

I am incredibly humbled to stand here as the Member of Parliament for East Devon.

My constituency boasts vast swathes of the Jurassic Coast, rolling countryside, Georgian seaside towns and beautiful villages – and you are never too far from an honesty box or farm shop.

I was born in Devon; my family have lived in the county for generations – with some hailing from Cornwall, but we don’t talk about that…

Devon has given me incredible opportunities during my career.

I was part of the launch team for Radio Plymouth – a truly independent radio station for my home city.

It’s still going strong 10 years later – and I was delighted to attend their birthday celebrations last month.

However, my career in journalism and politics took me away from my county, family and friends.

London and the South East continue to lure our home-grown talent, many of whom never return.

This must change.

But it’s only possible if Devon speaks up, with one voice.

Devon has largely backed my party for many years – and that loyalty must be rewarded. 

And I look forward to working with the government on repaying the people’s trust in us.

Throughout the election campaign, people on doorsteps across East Devon told me they wanted to Get Brexit Done.

We’re getting it done – but we must deliver more.

And whilst many people flock to Devon for our stunning coastline and countryside every year, its clear our transport network leaves a lot to be desired.

Never more so than now.

Until last week, Exeter Airport, based in my constituency, provided regular flights across the UK, Channel Islands and Europe.

The collapse of Flybe is devastating for Devon and my thoughts are with those looking for new jobs.

I went to Exeter Airport on Friday to speak to staff and offer my support.

I saw many brave faces that day.

I want them to know I will do everything I can to support the future of Exeter Airport.

Now is the time to invest in the South West.

Never again can our main railway line, connecting Devon to the rest of the country, be washed away.

So, we must – to coin a phrase – Get Dawlish Done.

That’s not all.

The A303 is a main artery route into the South West.

It’s the road which passes Stonehenge – and many of us are treated to that historic view for considerably longer than we anticipated.

It’s time we saw action – not just proposals and plans.

I would take great delight in getting access to the Governments PayPal account.

Alas, I fear the password may contain the words “Powerhouse” and “Northern”.

Nevertheless, I know the Prime Minister and his Cabinet fully understand the opportunities and challenges facing Devon.

“I’ll do it dreckly” is a phrase heard regularly in my home city of Plymouth.

It means we’ll get around to doing something at some point, maybe, in the future.

A janner’s mañ-yarna, if you will.

But we don’t have any time to waste – we must deliver for Devon, now.

Thank you.

Meanwhile, as Old Owl has found Hugo Swire continues dashing around the world on expenses  (see his Twitter feed) and promoting honey, for which he presumably receives payments as patron, as he did when an MP.

Neither pestilence nor plague can be allowed to get in the way of achieving EDDC’s aim of build, build, build. Driven by a plan to create just under 1,000 jobs a year, and Heart of the South West’s plan to double the (2018) economy in 20 years.

The end of the Ben Ingham/Tory regime can’t come soon enough.

Becca Gliddon  eastdevonnews.co.uk 

A housing developer recently announced the start of its next phase of home building for Cranbrook.

Taylor Wimpey Exeter said the fifth phase of development at East Devon’s newest town, Cranbrook, was launched last month and includes two, three and four-bedroom homes.

Melissa Langton, for the housing developer, said “We’re really excited to launch the fifth phase of our Cranbrook development this year.

“Our site team has been working incredibly hard ahead of the launch, and we can’t wait to welcome people to site when we open our doors.”

Cranbrook resident Matt Rowett – in support of the new homes – said his move to the town was driven by community spirit and the being located near Exeter.

He said: “One of the main reasons for coming out to Cranbrook was to upsize as we now have a one-year-old son.

“I can definitely see him growing up here, making lots of friends and attending the local school.”

‘No-one should be going through this alone’ is the message from Ottery St Mary’s network of community volunteers.

Philippa Davies  www.sidmouthherald.co.uk

As the coronavirus crisis has escalated, so has the number of people joining the network, now numbering around 400.

The network, set up by the town council, the NHS, the Coleridge Medical Centre and Ottery Help, is working in groups, each focusing on a section of Ottery comprising around 100 homes.

They will distribute leaflets and email people to find out who are the most vulnerable people in their areas.

The community volunteers are initially concentrating on practical support such as shopping and collecting prescriptions, but are appealing for people with medical training to join them.

They are also aware that some elderly or vulnerable people might be nervous about opening their door to a stranger.

All volunteers will carry photo ID, and the list of volunteers has been registered with the police, so that people can phone to check their credentials.

If you need help contact help@online.ottery

Anyone interested in joining the network is asked to email admin@ottery.biz

“The south west looks most vulnerable in terms of ratios. It has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality) and lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. The modelling suggests it needs six times more than currently exists there (600 per cent).”

“On the upside, the south west currently has a relatively low infection rate. Public Health England (PHE) should be doing everything possible to keep it that way through aggressive testing and containment of new cases [If only! – Owl]. If the virus gets out of control in the south west it is likely to sweep through the region’s retirement towns and nursing homes, overwhelming local hospitals.”

Owl hopes that all those who went along with bed closures locally will reflect upon their actions – we are all in this together – no-one is immune, no-one can “buy their way out”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/huge-regional-differences-intensive-care-bed-numbers-threaten/

Those living in rural areas, the south west and midlands are most vulnerable, while London is best equipped.

We know the NHS as a whole has too little capacity to cope with the coronavirus outbreak. That’s why all hospitals were on Tuesday ordered to send “medically fit” patients home and cancel all non-urgent operations, moves which will impact tens of thousands.

“Covid-19 presents the NHS with arguably the greatest challenge it has faced since its creation”, said its boss Simon Stevens, in a letter to all trust and hospital chief executives.

Despite such announcements, it’s a mistake to think of the NHS as a single service. It is anything but. Health care in the UK is run independently in each of the four nations. Even in England, the service Mr Stevens’ presides over, the NHS, is not really one entity run and controlled from the centre. In reality it’s a federation of sometimes competing services.

The analysis below showing huge regional variation in the NHS’s ability to respond to the Covid-19 outbreak is partly explained by this and partly by the nature of the virus itself.

The modelling has been done by Edge Health, a leading provider of data analysis to many of the country’s 206 hospital trusts. It was the same company that calculated a 7.5 times shortage in critical care beds last week, prompting the health secretary to charge industry with urgently making more ventilators.

Mr Stevens’ action aims to free up 30,000 of the current 100,000 overnight acute beds across England. But the latest modeling shows that even a doubling of that capacity may not be enough to meet the additional demand generated by Covid-19.

“Even if the entire NHS bed capacity were recreated in just six weeks we would still have patients in need of a bed by the middle of May”, the report says. “This pressure is most significant for patients that need critical care beds with ventilation support.”

This is the national picture for England but it hides “huge regional variation”, as the Health Service Journal (HSJ), bible of health service managers, said today (Thursday) based on the same data modelling study. London has 30 per cent more critical care capacity than the much more elderly south west of the country, for example.

(Updated Peak demand embed)

Arguably this existing bed base is adequate for ‘normal demand’ based on current demographics. But “the unique challenge from Covid-19 is that it appears to result in significantly higher mortality rates for older people who tend to be based in areas where there are fewer beds per head of population”, the report reveals.

Where are these areas – those that are going to come under greatest pressure as the epidemic sweeps the country?

The first and most obvious casualty is likely to be rural England. “The maps show that existing bed capacity, much of which has high occupancy, is located away from rural communities where the age profile is older,” the modelling study shows.

The number of critical care beds in different regions and – crucially – their current availability is also going to be decisive. “In England critical care beds were reported as being 83 per cent occupied in December – this starkly contrasts to Italy which had reported occupancy levels pre-Covid-19 of 33 per cent, although this may in part be due to different reporting methodologies,” says the study.

Regionally, it looks like London is best positioned to weather the epidemic, although it too will come under immense pressure.

The capital currently has the highest number of Covid-19 infections per head of population but it also has the youngest population (so lowest expected mortality) and the highest number of critical care beds per head of population.

Even then it is projected to need more than double the number of beds with ventilators than it currently has (129 per cent more). But this is much better than the rest of the country.

The south west looks most vulnerable in terms of ratios. It has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality) and lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. The modelling suggests it needs six times more than currently exists there (600 per cent).

On the upside, the south west currently has a relatively low infection rate. Public Health England (PHE) should be doing everything possible to keep it that way through aggressive testing and containment of new cases. If the virus gets out of control in the south west it is likely to sweep through the region’s retirement towns and nursing homes, overwhelming local hospitals.

In terms of ratios (percentage increase in beds required), the south east and east of England are on a par, requiring a bit more than a four-fold increase in ventilators. However, in terms of demand by sheer volume, the Midlands is projected to need a massive 2,900 additional ventilators – and the medical staff to go with them.

George Batchelor, a co-founder of Edge Health and the report’s principal author, said that having identified the major regional gaps, the NHS needs to think “creatively” to fill them. In particular it should resist the urge simply to try and increase hospital capacity, he said.

“Moving people in and out is going to be important – large flows going through a small stock of beds can quickly cause havoc. The NHS needs to agree its criteria for how it stratifies and moves patients through the different levels of care rapidly, so it makes the best use of limited resources,” he said.

Severely ill patients are very likely to require piped oxygen at high flow rates but they do not necessarily need to be in an existing hospital environment.

“That could actually make things worse because you can only vacate a critical bed if you have somewhere to move the recovering patient to. If other beds are full you get a blockage. It’s a bit like a bath overflowing as the plug is blocked and the tap stuck on,” said Mr Batchelor.

Instead we should “think radically” about how to handle severely ill patients, and learn from the experience of others. “Italy has tents, China built temporary hospitals,” he noted.
In France the army has started helicoptering patients between regions.

“It may also be worth considering how to use regional differential to our advantage – could some London capacity be used to support other regions?”

Finally there is the sensitive issue of triage to be considered if gaps in capacity cannot be filled. The standard process for this involves two or more senior doctors deciding on who gets help and who does not based on a pre-agreed set of criteria.

“Establish a process for triage of patients competing for limited resources, including admission, early discharge, and life support. These decisions should not be made solely by one person. The criteria used to make these decisions should be created in advance and formally sanctioned by the medical staff and hospital administration,” says an advisory note to US hospitals from the John Hopkins Center for Health Security.

In the UK we follow a similar process, often referred to as the Three Wise Men. The aim of the protocol – which should only come into play once national, as opposed to local – resources run out, is to ensure that those patients most likely to survive get treatment.

But to do this well you need good data on survival prospects. How, for example, do age and different underlying conditions interplay in determining survival prospects?

In northern Italian hospitals, which were overwhelmed by Covid-19, the criteria used appeared, from the outside at least, horribly crude, and based largely on age because no better data was available. We urgently need a more sophisticated system here today.

“No one should be making these difficult decisions by themselves”, said a spokesman for the Intensive Care Society. “We will be engaging with NHS England in the hope that guidance will be sent to clinicians across the country.”

Even with the divided and uneven NHS we have, this is something that can and should be done centrally.

Open office working …. well, no door handles but a long way for a sneeze to travel – and that narrow, tall, council chamber has people sitting cheek to cheek …..!

Old Owl

Editor of the Lancet asks the question.

On 24 January, Chinese doctors and scientists reported the first description of a new disease caused by a novel coronavirus. They described how a strange series of cases of pneumonia had presented in December in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people and the capital of Hubei province. At that time, 800 cases of the new disease had been confirmed. The virus had already been exported to Thailand, Japan and South Korea.

Richard Horton is a doctor and edits the Lancet  www.theguardian.com 

Most of the 41 people described in this first report, published in the Lancet, presented with non-specific symptoms of fever and cough. More than half had difficulties in breathing. But most worryingly of all, a third of these patients had such a severe illness that they had to be admitted to an intensive care unit. Most developed a critical complication of their viral pneumonia – acute respiratory distress syndrome. Half died.

The Chinese scientists pulled no punches. “The number of deaths is rising quickly,” they wrote. The provision of personal protective equipment for health workers was strongly recommended. Testing for the virus should be done immediately a diagnosis was suspected. They concluded that the mortality rate was high. And they urged careful surveillance of this new virus in view of its “pandemic potential”.

That was in January. Why did it take the UK government eight weeks to recognise the seriousness of what we now call Covid-19?

In 2003, Chinese officials were heavily criticised for keeping the dangers of a new viral disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), secret. By 2020, a new generation of Chinese scientists had learned their lesson. Under immense pressure, as the epidemic exploded around them, they took time to write up their findings in a foreign language and seek publication in a medical journal thousands of miles away. Their rapid and rigorous work was an urgent warning to the world. We owe those scientists enormous thanks.

But medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored their warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched.

The scientists advising ministers seemed to believe that this new virus could be treated much like influenza. Graham Medley, one of the government’s expert scientific advisers, was disarmingly explicit. In an interview on Newsnight last week, he explained the UK’s approach: to allow a controlled epidemic of large numbers of people, which would generate “herd immunity”. Our scientists recommended “a situation where the majority of the population are immune to the infection. And the only way of developing that, in the absence of a vaccine, is for the majority of the population to become infected.”

Medley suggested that, “ideally”, we might need “a nice big epidemic” among the less vulnerable. “What we are going to have to try and do,” he said, was to “manage this acquisition of herd immunity and minimise the exposure of people who are vulnerable.” Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the target was to infect 60% of the UK’s population.

After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans. Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China.

Indeed, it didn’t need this week’s predictions by Imperial College scientists to estimate the impact of the government’s complacent approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation. With a mortality of 1% among 60% of a population of some 66 million people, the UK could expect almost 400,000 deaths. The huge wave of critically ill patients that would result from this strategy would quickly overwhelm the NHS.

The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late.

The virus quickly made its way to Europe. Italy was the first European country to suffer huge human losses. On 12 March, two Italian researchers, Andrea Remuzzi and Giuseppe Remuzzi, set out the lessons of their tragic experience. Italy’s health service simply could not cope. They did not have the capacity of intensive care beds to deal with the scale of infection and its consequences. They predicted that by mid-April their health system would be overwhelmed. The mortality of patients with severe infection was high. A fifth of health workers were becoming infected, and some were dying.

They described the situation in Italy as an unmanageable catastrophe. They wrote: “These considerations might also apply to other European countries that could have similar numbers of patients infected and similar needs regarding intensive care admissions.” And yet the UK continued with its strategy of encouraging the epidemic and the goal of herd immunity.

Something has gone badly wrong in the way the UK has handled Covid-19. I know Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance. I have the utmost respect for both. They have had the services of some of the most talented researchers in the world to draw on. But somehow there was a collective failure among politicians and perhaps even government experts to recognise the signals that Chinese and Italian scientists were sending. We had the opportunity and the time to learn from the experience of other countries. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the UK missed those signals. We missed those opportunities.

In due time, there must be a reckoning. I sat with the director general of the World Health Organization, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in Geneva in February. He was in despair. Tedros had been criticised for not calling a public health emergency of international concern sooner. But when he did and when he asked for the modest sum of $675m to help the WHO combat the growing global pandemic his pleas were ignored.

The UK is now taking the right actions to defeat this new epidemic. But we have lost valuable time. There will be deaths that were preventable. The system failed. I don’t know why. But, when we have suppressed this epidemic, when life returns to some semblance of normality, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Because we can’t afford to fail again. We may not have a second chance.