Exit strategy – the debate starts with some strongly held views. Follow the science, but which one? 

Owl has extracted this summary of the alternative views being voiced from a wider ranging article. 

As mentioned before, Owl thinks it might be wise to watch and see what happens in other nations, further down the path. (The USA will be an interesting wild-card to follow).

It  might be wise to wait until we get a fully functioning testing system which will be an essential prerequisite as well. With a novel virus, collecting real data is essential to validate the models being used and track what is happening when policies are implemented. The models are all based on a raft of assumptions, including herd immunity which assumes significant immunity will be gained from infection. 

Finally, the government might be wise to be prepared to be adaptable in the face of changing circumstances. 

Michael Savage  www.theguardian.com 

…….Francois Balloux, professor of computational systems biology and the director of the University College London genetics institute, said: “I personally, cannot see any viable alternative to ensuring immunity builds up in the population, through infection or vaccination. What is critical is to minimise hospital overload, to ensure mortality is kept as low as possible. There was a window of opportunity earlier in the Covid-19 pandemic, where it could have been controlled. We missed it, for various reasons, ranging from lack of preparedness to complacency. We should analyse our failings in the future, but now is not the time for blame.”

A No 10 spokesperson responded: “As set out by the prime minister, we are working to a scientifically-led, step-by-step action plan – taking the right measures at the right time.”

However, there is now an open debate in Whitehall and the scientific community about the best route out of the lockdown measures, which government advisers have suggested may need to be in place until the end of May.

Professor Martin Hibberd, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, pointed to successful strategies employed in other countries. These have involved very large-scale testing and as much contact tracing as possible, to identify people with the virus. “This strategy was difficult to achieve at the beginning of the outbreak, because of logistic problems in testing at such a large scale and our lack of experience at large scale contact tracing,” Hibberd added. “However, we should now be able to overcome these problems.”

Mark Woolhouse at Edinburgh University highlighted three key strategies for dealing with the epidemic. “Once lockdown has driven down the virus to low enough levels in the community we can go back to chasing down individual cases. At the same time we build more ICU capacity in the NHS so we can relax the lockdown without the health service being overwhelmed. And thirdly, we place new emphasis in shielding the vulnerable.”

By contrast, John Edmunds, also of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, argued that the only way to proceed was to continue with the lockdown policy for many months. “Testing on its own will not stop this epidemic,” he said. “If you want the NHS to cope then you will have to take extreme measures for a long time. There is no way out. We will have social distance for many months or hospitals will be overwhelmed. Mass testing, mass contact tracing and more technology are fine, but what we really need is a vaccine.”