The recent drop in new daily reported Covid cases in the UK has led some scientists to hope that the country has reached the peak of this wave – but others say the dip could be something of a mirage.

Nicola Davis www.theguardian.com 

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, about 1 in 75 people in the community in England had Covid in the week ending 17 July, up from 1 in 95 the week before. The survey suggests infection levels have also risen in Wales and Northern Ireland, although the trend in Scotland was unclear.

However, case data, based on those coming forward for testing – often once they have symptoms – is painting a different picture. On Friday 36,389 new cases of Covid were reported in the UK, down from 39,906 the day before and the sixth day in a row that cases were below the 54,674 figure reported on 17 July.

The decline has led some to voice cautious optimism. Tweeting about Thursday’s figures, Prof Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, wrote: “This could turn out to be the best Covid news of the day,” adding along with the prayer hands emoji that new cases in the UK appeared to be starting a descent.

But as so often in this pandemic, it will take time for the situation to become clear.

Dr Mike Tildesley of the University of Warwick, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), said it was impossible to tell whether the recent fall in cases meant the tide was starting to turn. “We really need to see a trend, and if this continues for the next week,” he said. “Right now it could be a blip.”

A key factor is that it will be two to three weeks before the impact of the relaxation of Covid restrictions on 19 July and the influence of school holidays begin to be seen in case figures. Many schools in England only broke up on Friday.

While the relaxation of restrictions is expected to boost the spread of Covid, school holidays may lead to reduced transmission – as well as testing. However, with the majority of children not eligible for vaccination, the return to school in September could fuel a further rise in cases.

And there are other factors including Euro 2020 – there are signs that mass gatherings for the matches may have fuelled an increase in infections.

“Given that the final was on 11 July, the peak – and then dip – around four days after that, does coincide with any such infections being reported in the next four or five days later,” said Prof Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh who also contributes to Spi-M. “If so, it could be that what we are seeing is a decline that is due to the passing of that possible [event] – and it may be followed by a more sustained rise.”

Another factor relates to immunity. While documents released by Spi-M on Friday dated to 14 July noted signs of a slowdown in growth in the north-west of England, something ONS data suggests has since turned into a decline, the group suggested there was no clear indication from observed local antibody prevalence data that herd immunity was causing the downward trend.

However, Kao said it is possible that factors with a more sustained impact than the football could be at play in the UK. “In particular, the proportion of individuals with either natural or vaccine-induced immunity is getting high, and if people are being more aware of the need for continued personal measures to control Covid than the modelling anticipated … then together that may be enough to signal a more sustained decline, at least in some areas of the country,” he told the Guardian.

“The number of new coronavirus cases confirmed across Devon and Cornwall in the last week has reached record levels – but new infections are starting to fall.”

However, there will be a lag of a couple of weeks before we see what the impact of “July 19 Freedom Day” really is. Uncontrolled exponential growth is inherently dangerous. – Owl

Number of new Covid cases at record levels

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com 

A total of 8,570 new cases were confirmed across the two counties for the second successive week – with the total since the start of the pandemic at 73,862– with some significant week-on-week rises.

It is the highest weekly total in terms of the number of new cases, up by around 25 per cent on last week’s total – but the number of new infections confirmed in the previous two days have both been significantly lower than the figure last week, showing early signs that the wave may have peaked.

While every single region saw a rise in the number of new cases, and infection rates are at record levels, the rise in the number of people in hospital was less steep and is significantly lower than the peak – and the number of deaths remains very low.

At the peak of the second wave, there were 403 patients in hospitals across Devon and Cornwall following a positive Covid-19 test, compared to the 72 at present.

And Plymouth hasn’t seen a death since March 1, while Devon saw one death this week on July 17, its first for two months, with three deaths in Cornwall.

Government stats show that 8,570 new cases have been confirmed across the region in the past seven days, to 6,560 new cases confirmed last week.

Since July 16, of the 8,570 new cases confirmed, 2322 were in Cornwall, 600 in East Devon, 549 in Exeter, 300 in Mid Devon, 497 in North Devon, 2192 in Plymouth, 338 in South Hams, 534 in Teignbridge, 891 in Torbay, 200 in Torridge and 147 in West Devon.

This compares to the 6560 cases confirmed between July 10-16, of which, 1589 were in Cornwall, with 491 in East Devon, 434 in Exeter, 275 in Mid Devon, 373 in North Devon, 1713 in Plymouth, 263 in South Hams, 479 in Teignbridge, 726 in Torbay, 125 in Torridge and 92 in West Devon.

Infection rates across Devon and Cornwall are highest in the 20-39s and then the 0-19s, followed by the 40-59s, 60-79s and 80+ in every region, and have risen in every region, but the infection rates for the over 80s in Devon and Torbay is lower this week than it was seven days ago, and by specimen date, no-one aged 80+ in West Devon has tested positive in the last week.

But despite the large spike in cases, and while there has been a rise of those going into hospital, the increase is not as large – although the numbers are growing.

The latest Government figures, which give the position as of Tuesday, July 20, show that across hospital trusts in the two counties, there are 72 patients currently in hospital in the two counties – up from 53.

Derriford Hospital has 23 patients – up from 15, with Exeter having 16, up from nine, Torbay 11, up from nine, and North Devon two, up from one, with seven patients in mechanical ventilation beds in Devon. In Cornwall, there were 20 patients in hospital, up one from 19 last week, with none in a mechanical ventilation bed.

The figures show how many patients are in hospital following a positive test for Covid-19, but not whether they were admitted for Covid-related reasons, whether they were infected inside the hospital, or whether their admission was entirely unrelated but they happened to have Covid at the same time.

In terms of the latest MSOA cluster maps, that cover the period of specimen dates between July 12-18, only the Isles of Scilly reported between 0-2 cases, with all 229 areas of Devon and Cornwall reporting three or more cases.

Millbay & Stonehouse, and Newquay East, both reported 120 cases, with Plymstock Hooe & Oreston seeing 117, St Budeaux 115, and Blatchcombe & Blagdon 102.

Braunton (98), Ham, Beacon Park & Pennycross (97), St Columb Minor & Porth (97), Derriford & Estover (93), Ford & Blockhouse Park (93), Cattedown & Prince Rock (92), Devonport, Mount Wise & Morice Town (91), Newquay West (91), and Chelston, Cockington & Livermead (90) also saw 90 or more cases.

Cranbrook, Broadclyst & Stoke Canon, and Exmouth Town (both 82), Pinhoe & Whipton North (72), Bradninch, Silverton & Thorverton (69), Woolwell & Lee Mill (40), Chudleigh & Bovey Tracey (56), Bideford South & East (52), and Tavistock (31) were the worst hit areas of the other districts respectively.

It comes as closing in on around 90 per cent of adults in Devon and Cornwall have had their first Covid-19 vaccine, with around seven per cent having had both doses.

Of the adult population, 85.5% in Cornwall, 89.2% in East Devon, 77.1% in Exeter, 88.1% in Mid Devon, 86.5% in North Devon, 82% in Plymouth, 87.3% in South Hams, 88.5% in Teignbridge, 84.7% in Torbay, 88.3% in Torridge, and 89% in West Devon, have had one dose.

And of the adult population, 69.6% in Cornwall, 74.2% in East Devon, 55.1% in Exeter, 71.4% in Mid Devon, 70.3% in North Devon, 62.6% in Plymouth, 72.2% in South Hams, 74.2% in Teignbridge, 71.7% in Torbay, 73.9% in Torridge and 76.6% in West Devon, have had a second dose.

Steve Brown, Director of Public Health Devon is urging residents to keep doing their bit to reduce the spread of coronavirus in Devon and to continue looking out for each other, particularly the most vulnerable, as we have done throughout the pandemic.

He said: “With most legal COVID-19 restrictions lifting this week, I want to say a huge heartfelt thank you to everyone in Devon for all they have done so far to keep each other safe.

“I want us to continue to be careful because positive cases in Devon are still rising, in fact at the moment we’ve got the highest rate of COVID-19 we’ve seen during the whole pandemic.

“While most people who catch COVID aren’t becoming seriously ill, due to the vaccination programme, there are some who do need medical care and unfortunately we are seeing hospital admission rise. There are plenty of people feeling the disruption of having to self-isolate with COVID-19 or because they have been identified as a close contact of a positive case.

“Over 38,000 people in Devon were identified as being Clinically Extremely Vulnerable and asked to shield from coronavirus. Many spent several months with little if any interaction outside of their households.

“And now as restrictions lift, these vulnerable people are once again being advised by the government about extra steps they may wish to take to protect themselves, such as making sure they have both does of a COVID-19 vaccine, meeting friends and family outside if possible and visiting shops and pharmacies at quieter times of day.

“But I strongly feel that it is up to all of us to carry on doing everything we can to continue keeping each other safe.

“Many people, particularly if they are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, have dreaded the day legal restrictions lift for fear of catching coronavirus. I understand that you’re in a difficult position, and you may be feeling worried about the current situation.

“Although the legal restrictions have lifted, our responsibility to members of our family, friends and society has not changed. I urge everyone in Devon to choose to do the right thing and keep doing your bit to reduce the spread of coronavirus by respecting the personal space of those around you, wearing a face covering in crowded areas, getting tested regularly, having both doses of the vaccine and washing your hands properly.

“We have been good at looking out for each other and helping those in need so we need to respect those of us who will still be feeling anxious and behave in ways that protect them and ourselves from the risk of coronavirus.”

[Detailed data in online article]

“Greedy developers”; “Cheap Options”; “Whatever we do will be a disaster”; “Better to wait until we have future planning permissions”; “Let’s talk to the developers”. Under Jenrick’s new planning proposals will this sort of problem become less likely? – Owl

Fears over gridlock chaos in Devon

Lewis Clarke www.devonlive.com 

Fears a busy area will become ‘completely and utterly’ gridlocked have been voiced as housing development continues in Sticklepath.

Devon County Council is looking at the possibility of revoking a bus gate at Gratton Way, which is operated by a rising bollard system, and introduce a new bus gate on Old Torrington Road to the north of the junction with Gratton Way, enforced with cameras.

Traffic would then be directed through Gratton Way to the new development, the crematorium and properties at the southern end of Old Torrington Road instead of from the A3125 on Bickington Road.

The council hopes this will help better manage traffic in the area and reduce congestion due to the new housing development at Larkbear, where permission has been granted for 200 homes with the potential for more.

During a consultation period, 224 responses were received, with 174 in favour and 47 objectors. The council also backed the move.

At the North Devon Highways and Transportation Orders Committee held on Wednesday, July 7, Councillor Caroline Leaver (Barnstaple South, Liberal Democrat) said: “The reason for the bus gate is the impact of the additional traffic that is being generated by those houses. It is something that has been fully considered and has been subject to public consultation.

“We found that the impact of another rat run at the Wrey Arms roundabout, and indeed on Rhododendron Way and Broadclose Road, would impact them significantly enough that planning permission would not be granted without it.

“The other issue is about getting to the crematorium. Once we get the bus gate, we can discuss restrictions; there is nothing to say a bus gate has to be 24-hours a day.

“This has been explored extensively; it’s trying to avoid a problem becoming even worse. It is not about trying to restrict people, so they are not able to move around, but to protect an area becoming so completely and utterly gridlocked that people can’t go about their normal daily lives.”

Early morning traffic congestion at the junction of the A3125 with the B3233 – This queue of traffic into Barnstaple occurs every weekday morning and further housing developments in Bickington, Fremington and Yelland are likely to exacerbate the situation. (Image: Roger A Smith / Geograph)

Councillor Ian Roome (Barnstaple North, Liberal Democrat) said people were currently using the bus gate on Gratton Way as there was no legal way of enforcing traffic there.

He said: “Everyone is using that bus gate now anyway, whether you like it or not. I was there the other day, and cars are going through it willy-nilly.”

Councillor David Knight, a committee member representing North Devon Council, added: “If we do nothing, we are rubber-stamping people using it as a rat run.

“Doing nothing doesn’t do anything for residents in Rhododendron Avenue and Broadclose Road who are suffering greatly from people shooting up that narrow road.”

Speaking to councillors, Michelle Ward, a resident of Tower View and a driving instructor, said the area had been plagued with issues.

“We used to be able to collect our students anytime and anywhere around the Barnstaple area,” she said.

“Over the last five years, it’s been a total nightmare. We no longer collect students from Fremington, Bickington, and Roundswell between 7.30 am, and 9.30 am due to the sluggish and stagnant traffic.

“We also get a lot of complaints from parents that their children are in lessons and sat in traffic.

“As a reputable company, this didn’t sit well with us at all. We don’t like complaints of any sort, especially when people are sat in traffic.

“My husband and I, along with 40 other driving instructors, find the traffic in Barnstaple so unpredictable and often gridlocked from Bickington through to the hospital. The bus gate move will alleviate the traffic issues on this side of town and will be life-changing for residents living in this area.

“The bus gate move will encourage drivers to use the A361 and the A39 circular routes which have been put there to avoid the town.”

However, some members called for a delay in the decision.

Councillor Paul Henderson (Conservative, Chulmleigh and Landkey) said: “It’s a very emotive subject. People on Old Torrington Road and further north will not want increased traffic flow, but people living south in the new estate with much longer journeys going around.

“Surely it’s better to leave the bus gate issue until we have future planning permissions, which will see the new site access and new homes being developed being required to manage traffic flows.”

“This was going to be a sensible development with access off the A361,” he explained. “It was going to link into the back of Petroc to take coaches off Old Torrington Road, and it was a win-win.

“Then the greedy developer has come along, saw it was going to cost a lot of money, and did the cheap option to come out on Old Torrington Road.”

He said it was now a ‘complete nightmare’.

“I think the sensible thing to do now is nothing,” he said. “People will take the fastest and shortest route, and we can take a look at where people start going.

“Whatever we do will be a disaster, and adding all these extra houses will make it a bigger problem. Let’s talk to the developers, bring it back for discussion as soon as we can, and get this as right as we possibly can.”

Councillor Pru Maskell (Braunton Rural, Conservative) added: “Why was that development given planning permission without the original proposal for access onto the A361?

“It seems this whole issue has been created by that fact, and it could have solved a huge amount of traffic issues if that had happened.”

The south-west of England will have the highest proportion of low-income workers affected by a £20-a-week cut later this year in universal credit payments, according to analysis by the TUC that illustrates the widespread culture of low pay from Cornwall to Gloucestershire.

Phillip Inman www.theguardian.com 

More than four in 10 universal credit claimants in the south-west have a low-paid job that qualifies them for benefits, a larger percentage than any other region, said the trade union body.

The rate of claimants who had a job in May was 42.1% in the south-west compared with 41.2% in the east Midlands, the next worst affected, and 36.7% in the West Midlands.

The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said 2.3 million working families, as well as those who rely solely on benefits, would see their incomes drop by more than £1,000 a year if the government presses ahead with a planned £20-a-week cut in universal credit from October.

The report also highlights the impact on individual parliamentary constituencies, revealing that the prime minister’s west London Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat has 9,546 UC claimants of whom 3,665 are in work, 38.4% of the total.

In the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Yorkshire constituency of Richmond nearly half, 48%, of people receiving universal credit are in work.

The TUC said: “It shows that even in wealthier parts of the UK the cut to universal credit will impact heavily on low-paid workers.”

About 6 million families claim UC and its predecessor, working families tax credit – twice the figure before the pandemic. More than 500,000 people were forced to file a claim during just nine days in March 2020 as the virus began to spread and the government announced the first lockdown.

In the same month, ministers agreed a £20 rise in universal credit and tax credits as a one-year measure to help new claimants adjust to the extra costs of the pandemic.

Estimates suggest it helped 700,000 people stay above the poverty line during the pandemic. Surveys have shown the public support it being made permanent.

Earlier this month Thérèse Coffey told MPs the government had honoured its commitment to extend the uplift for six months. Now the economy was opening up, she said, the focus of DWP support “should be strongly on getting people into work and jobs”.

Although there was no up-to-date robust data showing that claimants were coming off the benefit in significant numbers, Coffey said internal DWP figures suggested there were 2.1 million job seekers on universal credit, down from 2.5 million in March, and this number was reducing week by week.

Labour, welfare charities and some Tory MPs have criticised the move, saying that millions of people will still be in precarious jobs in October and unable to cope financially after a cut in benefits of more than £1,000 a year.

In a separate report, also timed to coincide with the summer parliamentary recess, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said more than 500,000 people, including 200,000 children, will be plunged into poverty when the government pushes through what it called “the largest single cut to the basic rate of social security since the second world war”.

About 6 in 10 of all single-parent families will experience their income falling by the equivalent of £1,040 per year after the benefit cut, it said, imposing “the biggest overnight cut to the basic rate of social security since the foundation of the modern welfare state”.