UK ministers have been warned they cannot wait for new research on the Omicron variant and must act now to prevent a potentially “very significant wave of infections” that risks overwhelming the NHS.

Ian Sample www.theguardian.com 

A 75 further cases of the variant have been identified in England, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Friday night, bringing the total number of UK confirmed cases to 134. The head of the agency, Dr Jenny Harries, said: “We have started to see cases where there are no links to travel, suggesting that we have a small amount of community transmission.”

The Guardian understands the government has been privately urged by some of its own scientific advisers to tell people to work from home until Christmas if they can, when more will be known about the dangers posed by the new variant.

Growing concern about the spread of the variant was reflected at the latest meeting of the Sage committee, details of which were released on Friday. The minutes show experts saying there is no time to wait for more data on the Omicron variant. “Even if measures are introduced immediately, there may not be time to fully ascertain whether they are sufficient before decisions are needed on further action,” the documents say.

“The situation could develop quickly over the coming weeks and decision-makers may need to act while there is still a high level of uncertainty including considering the potential need for stringent response measures.”

However, on Friday, during a visit to Oswestry in Shropshire before an upcoming byelection, Boris Johnson said that Christmas this year should go ahead as “normally as possible” and reiterated that people did not need to cancel plans for parties and nativity plays.

Sage’s warning came as ministers gave GPs in England the green light to provide less care to millions of patients for the next four months so they can join the “national mission” to urgently deliver Covid booster jabs.

Family doctors will spend less time monitoring people with conditions such as diabetes and heart problems, do fewer health checks on the over-75s and stop performing minor surgery until April.

A Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) source made clear the government sees the accelerated vaccination campaign, combined with border measures, as its main weapons against Omicron. “Stepping up the boosters is the key thing: buy as much time as we can with the measures at the border to slow the incursion, and then make good use of that time to understand the variant.”

Ministers are keeping Covid measures under constant review, but it is understood fresh restrictions at the border – such as adding more countries to the red list – are considered more likely than domestic changes such as the reimposition of working from home guidance.

The Sage experts praised scientists in South Africa for swiftly identifying and sharing details of the highly mutated Omicron variant in November, a move that prompted a string of travel bans and a global research effort to understand how dangerous the variant may be.

According to the minutes, it is “highly likely” Omicron will escape immunity to some extent, given the large number of reinfections already seen in South Africa, and a raft of mutations that affect every known site that neutralising antibodies bind to.

The scientists expect protection against infection to be hit harder than protection against severe disease. But even if vaccines hold up well against severe illness, any significant drop in the prevention of infection could drive a “very large wave” of disease that requires “very stringent response measures to avoid unsustainable pressure on the NHS”, the experts say.

“It is important to be prepared for a potentially very significant wave of infections with associated hospitalisations now, ahead of data being available,” the minutes add.

The warning comes as the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that infection levels have risen in the UK, echoing trends seen in recent daily case numbers. The ONS survey, which is based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, found in the week ending 27 November an estimated 1.65% of the population in England had a Covid infection, equating to about one in 60 people. In Northern Ireland and Wales, the rate stands at one in 45, and at one in 65 in Scotland. The figures represent a rise in all nations except Wales, where the trend was uncertain. None of the cases were confirmed as Omicron, which was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on 24 November.

On Friday, the UK reported a further 50,584 cases, up 1% on the week, with 787 hospitalisations and 143 deaths, down 3.8% and 5.2% on the week respectively.

Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), urged people to work from home where possible until more was known about the risk Omicron posed. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control believes the variant could become dominant on the continent within months.

“The honest truth is that the booster programme, which I think will work, is not going to work soon enough if there is a big wave here soon,” said Finn. “It takes time to get them into people and it takes time for them to make an immune response.”

“We need to buy time. If in three weeks it’s died out, then fine, we can all relax, but right now is the time when you could prevent there being a big wave,” he added. “The more people can work from home now the better, until we are more definite about what’s going to happen.” Sage scientists estimate that more than a third of people’s contacts occur in the workplace and that home working can have a significant impact on transmission.

Prof Anthony Harnden, the deputy chair of the JCVI, said while boosters would give the majority of people their best chance of fighting Omicron, there remained a small proportion, but large numbers, of unvaccinated adults who would be “at very high risk” if Omicron proved to be highly transmissible. “We should explore every measure to reach out to these unvaccinated adults,” he said.

No 10 on Friday ruled out making vaccines compulsory, as has happened in Austria and is being considered in Germany. A spokesperson for the prime minister told reporters: “We’ve set out our policy on this and we’ve said it’s not something that we would look to introduce. You’re aware of the changes we made in terms of social care settings and for NHS workers, given the importance of protecting the most vulnerable in our society. But there’s no plans above and beyond that in that regard.”

Finn believes mandatory vaccination of the general public could cause more harm than good in the UK, but favours an approach used in South Africa, where trusted individuals go door-to-door to talk through people’s concerns about having a Covid jab. “They are literally going to people’s houses and talking to them, one by one, and I think that’s what you’ve got to do, and it has to be the right person doing it,” he said. “We know who’s not had the shots and you can have a real impact if you get the communication right.”

On the face of it, nothing much happened in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday. The by-election produced a pretty bog standard midterm shift from the governing party to the opposition. The Conservatives fell 13 points to 51.5 per cent. Labour rose seven points to 30.9 per cent. The constituency stayed in Tory hands.

Ian-dunt inews.co.uk 

But underneath that result, something rather striking happened. The Liberal Democrat vote plummeted five points to just three per cent. And that was not because of a poor showing by Ed Davey’s party. It was because they effectively stood aside to give Labour a clear run. We seem to be witnessing the start of an informal, organic anti-Tory strategic arrangement.

No-one expected this seat to be an upset. Old Bexley and Sidcup has been Conservative since it was created in 1983. Even in 1997, the party secured a seven per cent majority. Barring an asteroid hitting the earth, it’ll still be Conservative at the next general election, no matter who ends up in Downing Street.

It’s not part of the Blue Wall – that smattering of Remain-voting Conservative seats in the South with high numbers of graduates and professionals feeling alienated from the government. Just 22.6 per cent of its electorate are graduates. It voted 62 per cent Leave in the referendum. It has an 89 per cent white population. It has a higher-than-average number of people aged over-65. Basically, this is a classic constituency for the modern Conservative party. Johnson is having a rough time of it at the moment, but it would have to be many degrees worse for places like this to be in the running.

All of which makes it seem like yesterday’s vote was pretty boring. Labour were doing well enough to stay in the game, the Tories well enough to dispel talk of disaster. Nothing of any interest.

Except for the Lib Dem vote. That was the real eye-opener.

For years now, and particularly since the 2019 election, progressive voters have been calling for a formal alliance between the non-Tory parties. And you can see why. Look at a seat like the Cities of London and Westminster. In the last general election, the Lib Dems secured 13,096 votes, Labour 11,624 and the Tory candidates sailed through the middle with 17,049. It’s a classic case of how badly the first-past-the-post system punishes a split vote on the left.

But the Lib Dems and Labour have been knocking the suggestion back. Voters don’t like the smell of a top-level stitch up, they say, and anyway local parties wouldn’t countenance it. Even in 1997, when Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown were working closely together, there was no formal pact. They just generally tried to stay out of each other’s way so that each could inflict maximum damage on the government.

And that, on the face of it, seems to be what is happening now. “What I see is a party led by Keir Starmer, who shares our view – that we’ve got to remove Boris Johnson from 10 Downing Street,” Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said last month. “They will campaign in areas where they think they can win and we’ll campaign in areas that we think we can win. We have to manage our resources carefully. It’s no secret that we haven’t put all our effort into some by-elections.”

The Lib Dems therefore didn’t really get involved in this by-election. They consequently fell five points and lost their deposit. But they are focusing on a by-election in the seat vacated by sleaze-ridden MP Owen Paterson on 16 December. “We certainly want to make our case in North Shropshire,” Davey said.

What’s interesting is that Labour seems to be playing ball. The party finished second in Paterson’s seat in 2019, but it seems to be standing aside for Davey so the Lib Dems can monopolise the anti-government vote.

This isn’t the first time this has happened. Labour effectively stood to one side during the Chesham and Amersham by-election in June, scoring just 622 votes and allowing Lib Dem Sarah Green to secure a shocking 25 point swing. Weeks later, the Lib Dems were pretty much invisible in the bitterly fought Batley and Spen by-election, which arguably allowed Labour to retain the seat.

That puts all eyes firmly on North Shropshire in two weeks’ time. The seat shouldn’t be in play. It has a massive 40 per cent Tory majority. But it is ground zero of the Tory sleaze scandal. Conservative figures are getting jittery. The Lib Dems seem increasingly bullish about it. And Labour looks set to allow them a clear run.

There isn’t going to be a formal progressive alliance. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pursuing an organic strategic relationship, in which they prioritise their resources in those seats where they think they have the greatest chance of winning. In short, it looks like they’re getting their act together. And that, more than a 13 point fall in their vote share, will put fear in Tory hearts.

The state of the NHS in Devon was highlighted today by a student paramedic who took a video as he waited at the back of a queue this afternoon when up to 26 ambulances did not move in six hours.

Colleen Smith www.devonlive.com

The shocked medic wrote: “Currently at the back of a 22 ambulance queue. No movement in 6 hours. Staff are broken, the hospital is full. This is not sustainable. Patients are being affected and so are staff. The NHS in south Devon just broke. There was time to fix this, I don’t think so anymore.”

A member of the public earlier told DevonLive that he had counted 26 ambulances in the queue.

Currently at the back of a 22 ambulance queue. No movement in 6 hours. Staff are broken, the hospital is full. This is not sustainable. Patients are being affected and so are staff. The NHS in south Devon just broke. There was time to fix this, I don’t think so anymore. pic.twitter.com/C4LVPc9fTE

— will P (@willprice999) December 3, 2021

It comes as hospital staff face huge pressures with reports of people waiting for up to 13 hours in A&E at Torbay Hospital. Staff are also reeling today after being told their annual Christmas parties have been cancelled by bosses worried about the new Omicron variant of Covid.

In a statement to DevonLive today, Torbay Hospital said their emergency department has been under “sustained pressure” for several months now and they apologised to anyone waiting for treatment.

The hospital statement in full from Ian Currie, Medical Director at Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Like many hospitals across the country, we have been under sustained pressure in our emergency department for several months now.

“Currently extreme pressure is impacting on our ability to admit patients in a timely way which means that ambulances are currently waiting to discharge patients and we are not able to see people as quickly as we would like. We would like to offer our sincere apologies to everyone who is waiting for treatment.

“We always aim to see and treat patients as quickly as possible. All patients arriving at our emergency departments are triaged and assessed with the most clinically urgent being prioritised. This does mean that anyone presenting with less urgent needs is likely to face a very long wait for treatment.

“We are asking everyone to think carefully about which service is right for their needs. Our Urgent Treatment Centre at Newton Abbot is open 8am to 8pm every day and can provide treatment and care for a range of urgent care needs.

“We are working together with local health and care partners to ensure that people who need hospital care can be admitted and then supported to return home safely as soon as they are medically well enough to leave hospital.

“Family and friends of patients can also help by being ready to collect their loved one from hospital when we call, and supporting them when they get home.”