But see Owl’s emphases.

And can we predict the local Tory reaction to any EDDC increase in Council Tax?

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement, which introduced additional funding for social care and a delay to charging reforms, has been described by local government finance leaders as “better than expected”.

Aysha Gilmore www.room151.co.uk

In his statement to the House of Commons on 17 November, Hunt promised to prioritise “stability, growth and public services”. He chose to address inflationary pressures facing local authorities by committing up to £2.8bn of additional funding for adult social care in 2023/24 and £4.7bn for the following year.

Hunt also announced a delay to the social care charging reforms from October 2023 to October 2025. Funding for implementation of the reforms will be maintained to enable councils to address current adult social care pressures.

In response to the Autumn Statement, Chris Tambini, president of the Society of County Treasurers and director of corporate resources at Leicestershire County Council, told Room151: “The position is better than expected, and, compared to other parts of the public sector, local government has fared well. Especially welcome is the extra funding for adult social care and deferring the adult social care reforms.”

Tambini’s sentiment was echoed by Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network (CCN), who called the delay to social care reforms a “brave decision, but completely the right one”.

He said: “We understand that many will be disappointed, but postponing these reforms and reinvesting significant additional funding into frontline care services is strongly welcomed and will protect the most vulnerable in our society as well as buy councils vital time to stabilise the care system.”

Council tax ‘flexibilities’

The chancellor also promised increased “flexibilities” on council tax. Local authorities will be able to increase council tax by up to 3% per year from April 2023 without a referendum, with councils that have social care responsibilities able to increase their council tax by an additional 2% per year. Currently, the overall cap is set at 2.99%.

According to Dan Bates, director at consultancy LGi, local government budget gaps were reported to be about £3.5bn prior to the Autumn Statement. “I’d expect the additional £2.8bn for social care and a modest 1% increase in the council tax referendum limit to be cautiously welcomed by councils,” he told Room151.

“Whether this extra funding can be distributed in a fair way that meets levelling up ambitions remains to be seen. It should give [levelling up secretary] Michael Gove some headroom to equalise the impact that sees councils with high needs and low taxbases, mainly in the North, receive much less from council tax increases.”

Hunt’s announcement on tax flexibilities has been criticised by a range of council leaders. Sir Stephen Houghton, chair of the body representing municipal authorities SIGOMA , said: “Reliance on council tax to fairly fund care and other services is the wrong choice – it raises funding in a way unrelated to need while the increases ‘allowed’ will not come close to the funding gap and will put more pressures on family budgets when they can least afford it.”

Tambini added: “Most income sources including council tax will be lower in real terms in 2023/24 and that is on top of significant real terms cut in spending power this year.

“It has also left local politicians of upper-tier councils with the difficult decision of whether to put up council tax by 5% in the middle of a cost-of-living crises with the largest falls in disposable income on record.”

Devolution ‘milestone’

In his statement, Hunt confirmed the second round of the Levelling Up Fund, which will allocate at least £1.7bn to priority local infrastructure projects. He also announced a new elected mayor in Suffolk and new devolution deals for Cornwall, Norfolk and “an area in the North East”.

Cllr Martin Hill, the CCN’s devolution spokesperson, said: “The announcement today that the devolution deal in Suffolk is complete, with those in Cornwall and Norfolk close to completion, is another milestone in the county devolution agenda.

“All three agreements could be genuinely transformative for their local areas, with the Suffolk devolution deal the first of its kind in putting forward a directly-elected county leadership model.”

However, Hunt decided to “refocus” Liz Truss’ investment zones programme by “leveraging our research strengths by being centred on universities”.

Houghton said: “It is welcome that investment zones will be re-prioritised toward ‘left-behind’ areas, but the fact that the original expressions of interest will not be taken forward is just the latest example of the flaws of competitive bidding and the overcentralisation of local government funding pots.”

Hunt also announced that the government will provide £1bn to enable the extension of the Household Support Fund in England over 2023/24.

Keep the government “Old Stale and Tory” by preventing the young from voting! Looks discriminatory to Owl.

Long-awaited details of the government’s voter ID scheme have now finally been released including details of which IDs will be accepted at the polling station.

With no alternatives for voters who turn up on the day without the required ID or voter certificate, this list is all-important

Author: Jessica Garland, Director of Policy and Research www.electoral-reform.org.uk

Accepted forms of photographic identification for voting in the UK

• A passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country
• A driving licence issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man or an EEA state
• A biometric Immigration document
• An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (a PASS card)
• Ministry of Defence Form 90 (Defence Identity Card)
• A Blue Badge
• A national identity card issued by an EEA state
• An Older Person’s Bus Pass
• A disabled person’s Bus Pass
• An Oyster 60+ card
• A Freedom Pass
• A Scottish National Entitlement card issued in Scotland
• A 60 and Over Welsh Concessionary Travel card issued in Wales
• A Disabled Person’s Welsh Concessionary Travel Card issued in Wales
• A Senior Smart Pass issued in Northern Ireland
• A Registered Blind Smart Pass or Blind Person’s Smart Pass issued in Northern Ireland
• A War Disablement SmartPass or War Disabled SmartPass issued In Northern Ireland
• A 60+ SmartPass issued in Northern Ireland
• A Half Fare Smart Pass issued in Northern Ireland
• An Electoral Identity Card issued In Northern Ireland
• A Voter Authority Certificate or a temporary Voter Authority Certificate

Acceptable forms of ID are predominantly held by older people

The list, contained in recently tabled secondary legislation, includes passports and driving licences and a range of travel cards – predominantly those held by older people. This has prompted concern that younger people without ID will find it comparatively harder to vote.

During the passage of the Elections Act we successfully campaigned to extend the list of acceptable IDs. A cross-party group of peers passed an amendment that would have seen student IDs, library cards, bank statements and other easily accessible forms of ID accepted at polling stations. These options would have provided an important backstop for voters who don’t have more expensive forms of identity documents, like passports, and who may not have been able to access the voting certificate option.

The government’s decision to repeal this amendment during the final stages of the bill means that voters now have far fewer options on polling day.

New identification rules for 2023’s local elections

The government intends the new identification rules to be in place for next year’s local elections. For voters in Scotland and Wales, and in local areas that aren’t holding elections in 2023, these new rules will come into effect for the first time in what is likely to be a general election year.

Electoral administrators have already warned about the pressures they face to ensure that the scheme can be implemented in time for next year. Government delays bringing forward key secondary legislation means that final details won’t be legally in place until less than four months before the election. This month we called on the Political and Constitutional Affairs Committee to launch an inquiry into the implementation of voter ID and the impact of these delays.

Alongside concerns about implementation, the Association of Electoral Administrators have raised their fears about the impact on volunteer polling staff who will be forced to make decisions on who should be turned away from the polls.

For anyone following the US mid-terms this week, the importance of voter faith in election processes and outcomes is clear. Putting our electoral system under this sort of pressure risks undermining one of the most important aspects of democratic life – that voters and candidates accept that the process was fair and the results are true.

We have long argued that voter ID is an unnecessary distraction, but the risks involved in getting it wrong are significant.

Add your name to our call to protect your right to vote

www.local.gov.uk

“Councils want to work with central government to develop a long-term strategy to deliver critical local services and growth more effectively. Alongside certainty of funding and greater investment, this also needs wider devolution where local leaders have greater freedom from central government to take decisions on how to provide vital services in their communities.”

Responding to the Autumn Statement announced by the Chancellor today, Cllr James Jamieson, Chairman of the Local Government Association, said:

“Local government is the fabric of the country, as has been proved in the recent challenging years we have faced as a nation. It is good that the Chancellor has used the Autumn Statement to act on the LGA’s call to save local services from spiralling inflation, demand, and cost pressures.

“While the financial outlook for councils is better than we feared next year, councils recognise it will be residents and businesses who will be asked to pay more. We have been clear that council tax has never been the solution to meeting the long-term pressures facing services – particularly high-demand services like adult social care, child protection and homelessness prevention. It also raises different amounts of money in different parts of the country unrelated to need and adds to the financial burden facing households.

“We are pleased that government will provide extra funding for adult social care and accepted our ask for funding allocated towards reforms to still be available to address inflationary pressures for both councils and social care providers. Councils have always supported the principle of adult social care reforms and want to deliver them effectively but have warned that underfunded reforms would have exacerbated significant ongoing financial and workforce pressures. The Government needs to use the delay announced today to learn from the trailblazers to ensure that funding and support is in place for councils and providers to ensure they can be implemented successfully.

“The revised social rent cap is higher than anticipated next year but councils will still have to cope with the additional financial burden as a result of lost income. Councils support moves to keep social rents as low as possible but this will have an impact on councils’ ability to build the homes our communities desperately need – which is one of the best ways to boost growth – and retrofit existing housing stock to help the Government meet net zero goals.

“Financial turbulence is as damaging to local government as it is for our businesses and financial markets and all councils and vital services, such as social care, planning, waste and recycling collection and leisure centres, continue to face an uncertain future. Councils want to work with central government to develop a long-term strategy to deliver critical local services and growth more effectively. Alongside certainty of funding and greater investment, this also means wider devolution where local leaders have greater freedom from central government to take decisions on how to provide vital services in their communities.”

“It will wipe out the past eight years of growth, as wage rises fail to keep pace with inflation and interest rates rise.”

“Only the third time since the mid-1950s in which there will be back-to-back years of falling living standards.”

“Taxes will rise to 37.1% of GDP by 2027-28, their highest sustained level since the second world war.”

“A future government will face “a very large single fiscal event” in 2027-28 when, according to plans set out today, the Treasury will cut spending and increase taxes by £61.7bn,”

Anna Isaac www.theguardian.com 

The UK has fallen into a recession which will last more than a year and push half a million people out of work, while households face the biggest fall in living standards since records began.

The government spending watchdog forecast a 7% drop in household incomes over the next two years, capping what one of its officials described as a “dismal decade” for growth.

There will be the biggest fall in living standards since records began, with inflation “tipping the economy into a recession lasting just over a year”, the Office for Budget Responsibility said, as it released updated forecasts to accompany chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.

The drop in household spending power will be so acute it will wipe out the past eight years of growth, as wage rises fail to keep pace with inflation and interest rates rise. It will effectively turn the clock back to 2013, the OBR said.

It also marks only the third time since the mid-1950s in which there will be back-to-back years of falling living standards. The last time was in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

The years since then had been “a dismal decade for UK growth”, said Prof David Miles, a member of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee, adding that in the “very near term”, it was going to be “a year of squeezed budgets for households”.

The economy will shrink by 2%, driving up unemployment by 505,000 by the second half of 2024, the OBR said. GDP will only reach its pre-pandemic level by the end of the same year.

“The medium-term fiscal outlook has materially worsened since our March forecast due to a weaker economy, higher interest rates, and higher inflation,” the OBR said in its latest update on the outlook for the economy and public finances published alongside Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement.

There will be further pain for homeowners, with house prices set to fall 9% by 2024, the same year in which the next general election is expected to be held, while the average interest rate on mortgage debt will peak at 5%. Unemployment also is set to peak in the second half of 2024.

While household incomes are squeezed, taxes will rise to 37.1% of GDP by 2027-28, their highest sustained level since the second world war. This year, total taxes raised will top £1tn for the first time, after Hunt’s decision to expand the windfall tax.

Overall, the spending watchdog said government borrowing was likely to be higher than forecast in March this year, but would fall relative to economic output from 2024-25 onwards.

Under the plans announced on Thursday, a future government will face “a very large single fiscal event” in 2027-28 when, according to plans set out today, the Treasury will cut spending and increase taxes by £61.7bn, said Andy King, a member of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee.

It would be a “pretty similar number” compared with the 2010 austerity budget, when compared with the size of economies at the time, albeit against a different economic backdrop, King said.

While a fiscal crunch could be delayed until after a general election, some impact from the recession would be felt keenly in the run-up to polling day, according to the OBR’s calculations.

The OBR was embroiled in a political storm around Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, which went ahead in September without releasing forecasts from the watchdog.

It said on Thursday, in light of the furore, that its forecast “has been unusual in both the time it took to produce and the process leading to its publication”.

The omission of independent economic and borrowing forecasts triggered a crisis in the bond markets, with a sell-off in UK government debt, known as gilts, as investors felt the government had made a deliberate decision to avoid independent scrutiny of their spending plans.

The pair met with Richard Hughes, OBR chair, in the aftermath of the mini-budget in an attempt to cool markets.

Ahead of the autumn statement, the watchdog said: “This forecast process has been unusually uncertain, with various changes to both internal and public deadlines for forecast rounds, policy changes and publication dates.” The document it produced was also far shorter than usual and noted that there have been “five fiscal events since March”.

[OBR overview of the fiscal outlook can be found here]