Rishi Sunak is seen as less competent on economic affairs than most recent Conservative prime ministers, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

But read on for the “good news”! – Owl

Michael Savage www.theguardian.com 

The prime minister has made reducing inflation one of his key priorities, as well as reducing debt and avoiding a recession. Much of his pitch has been on his economic management skills as a former chancellor.

Sunak ranks below David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson, with only 27% thinking that his Conservatives are handling the economy well. Some 60% think they are handling it poorly. He ranks higher than Liz Truss, whose leadership imploded after her disastrous mini-budget. A large majority (78%) think her party performed poorly, 10% that they did well.

The poll reveals significant economic concerns. Half (48%) of voters think the UK economy will worsen over the next 12 months, with 22% thinking it will get better. Only 20% think their personal finances will improve.

General economic worries are widespread. Three in four (77%) worry about the state of the economy generally, 59% about interest rate rises and 82% about inflation and the cost of living.

Overall, Labour maintains a strong lead over the Tories ahead of a crucial party conference season. Keir Starmer’s party leads by 15 points, with 41% of the vote compared to 26% for the Tories. Sunak’s approval ratings have fallen further, to -30% net. Starmer remains the preferred choice for prime minister among voters, with 29% choosing him and 23% opting forSunak. A larger proportion pick neither leader (38%).

Adam Drummond, head of political and social research at Opinium, said: “There remain no signs of a Conservative turnaround in the polls, with Labour on a 15-point lead. Looking ahead to the next election, voters most want to see the Conservative government focus on cutting NHS waiting times and cutting inflation. Despite these being two of the five pledges Rishi Sunak made earlier in the year, the public remain sceptical of his government being able to do so, with around half of voters thinking these are unachievable under his government.”

Opinium polled 2,051 people online from 13-15 September. Results have been weighted to be politically and nationally representative.

Britain’s homeowners have taken a hit of more than £300bn in the year since Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, according to new analysis.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk

This week marks the first anniversary of the calamitous spree of unfunded tax cuts launched by the then-PM and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, which sparked market turmoil.

Labour claimed that the pair’s “casino economics” had caused ongoing damage to the housing market which “inaction man” Rishi Sunak had failed to fix.

The party pointed to a fall of around 5 per cent in house prices since September 2022 – saying it meant UK households have seen £336bn wiped off the value of their property in the last year.

The average monthly mortgage payment is up by £220 since a year ago, Bank of England figures show, as hard-pressed families struggle to cope with the burden of higher interest rates during the cost of living crisis.

There has been frustration for first-time buyers and those looking to move house, with official figures showing that mortgage approvals have fallen by 40 per cent since the mini-Budget.

Halifax has said house prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent over the past year, while Nationwide puts the drop at 5.3 per cent. Experts have warned the slump could continue until 2025.

Pat McFadden, Labour’s shadow Cabinet Office minister, said families continued to suffer “thanks to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous casino economics”.

He added: “Rishi Sunak, the ‘inaction man’ prime minister, is no better, allowing himself to be trapped by divisions in the Tory party and failing to solve the problems facing the country.”

Ms Truss was booted out of No 10 by her own party in late October last year – only six weeks after winning the leadership contest and succeeding Boris Johnson.

Failure to balance the books at the mini-Budget led to market panic, a falling pound and rising interest rates. The Bank of England was forced into emergency action to save pension funds close to collapse.

In interviews since leaving, Ms Truss has largely blamed Whitehall officials for the economic turmoil sparked by her mini-Budget – saying no one told her about the risk to pension funds.

She expressed some remorse about trying to abolish the 45p top rate of tax for the wealthy – a move she was forced abandoned after an outcry from her own MPs – saying she may have been “trying to fatten the pig on market day”.

Labour has attacked Mr Sunak for scrapping binding housebuilding targets. But the Tories have accused Sir Keir of turning from a “builder to a blocker” after Labour peers defeated government plans to axe water pollution rules in a bid to boost housebuilding.

Commenting on Labour analysis, Treasury minister John Glen said Sir Keir had “no plan to tackle the big issues facing the country”.

“Sir Keir Starmer would take the easy way out with his £28bn a year borrowing spree, leading to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates,” the Tory minister added.

“Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are focused on providing immediate relief to families and on their priorities. That is why we will halve inflation, grow the economy and reduce debt, building a stronger economy for the future.”

Where is the “Progressive Alliance”? – Owl

Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the byelection battle for Nadine Dorries’ old constituency of Mid Bedfordshire, new polling has revealed.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk

The Survation survey offers evidence that a split in the “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to hold onto the seat despite wider unpopularity.

Campaigners are pushing Labour and the Liberal Democrats to form an unofficial electoral pact so only one of the big parties pushes to take the blue wall stronghold.

The new poll for Labour Together – which puts Labour and the Tories on 29 per cent – will add to pressure on Ed Davey to accept that Keir Starmer’s party has the best chance of overturing a 24,000 Tory majority.

The Lib Dems are languishing in third place on 22 per cent in the contest, set to take place on 19 October. Reform UK is on 7 per cent, while independent candidate Gareth Mackey has 6 per cent.

The Survation found poll also found that large proportion – 27 per cent – of people in the seat who are planning to vote remain undecided, with Labour activists pouncing upon the results to encourage Lib Dem supporters to switch to Sir Keir’s party.

Josh Simons, director of Labour Together, said the polling “clearly shows this is a two-horse race between Labour and the Conservatives”.

He added: “After 13 years, Britain needs the Conservatives out and Keir Starmer’s Labour in. Voting Labour is the best and only way for voters in Mid Bedfordshire to send a message to this shambolic Tory government.”

However, the latest poll suggests that Labour has lost its lead. An Opinium poll in June put Labour on 28 per cent, the Tories on 24 per cent and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.

A source for Sir Ed’s party said the poll showed Labour had “stalled” because they only gained 1 per cent in a month, while the Lib Dem vote share had “surged” since then. They added: “We are fired up by this poll, which shows we are on track to win with 5 weeks to go.”

Polling guru Prof John Curtice has said the vote could “collapse” but they could still “hang on” because of an almost even vote split between Labour and the Lib Dems.

Tory peer and elections expert Robert Hayward also said Rishi Sunak’s party had a good chance of winning. “Keir Starmer’s determination to prove he can appeal to all parts of the country has surprised the Lib Dems,” he told The Independent.

The Compass campaign group have warned that the “ghost” of the recent Uxbridge by-election should loom large over Mid Bedfordshire – pointing to the Tories hanging on despite Boris Johnson’s unpopularity.

Lib Dem officials have argued that there is a natural ceiling to the Labour vote in Mid Bedfordshire because of the demographics in the rural constituency.

Mr Davey made his fifth visit to the home counties seat on Saturday, where he will spoke to voters in rural villages. He said “lifelong Conservative voters are turning to the Liberal Democrats to send this government a message”.

Mr Dorries finally formally resigned earlier this month having pledged to leave back in early June over her failure to gain a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.

The arch Johnson loyalist was furious at failing to win a peerage in her former boss’ resignation honours – alleging that “posh boy” Mr Sunak had blocked it.

The ex-culture secretary has claimed that No 10 is “pushing a line” that her delayed book launch is because she has broken the ministerial code and has been silenced.

Her book The Plot: The Political Assassination of Boris Johnson, had been scheduled for release at the end of September to coincide with the start of the Tory. But the publisher announced a delay until November for legal checks.

Ms Dorries denied the book had been delayed because of ministerial code issues. “What they [No 10] don’t seem to get is that it’s not about me or my time in office, it’s all about them. It’ll be worth the wait.”