Videos and pictures have shown how the sky was lit up moments after a thunderstorm passed overhead in Oxfordshire before the mystery bang was reported on social media by members of the public.
Severn Trent Green Power, a waste management company, confirmed the fire had occurred at its Cassington AD facility, near Yarnton, in a statement posted on Facebook on Monday evening. It confirmed biogas within the tank went up in flames.
A spokesperson for the company said: “Severn Trent Green Power can confirm that at around 19:20 this evening, a digester tank at its Cassington AD facility near Yarnton, Oxfordshire, was struck by lightning resulting in the biogas within that tank igniting. We are working with the emergency services to secure the site and will provide further comments in due course.”
The company said it was working with emergency services to secure the site. A company representative told the PA news agency that no-one was injured in the incident.
Videos began circulating on social media on Monday (October 2) showing a large fireball and the sky in the area pulsing an orange colour.
The person who captured footage, shared to X, can be overheard saying: “That’s massive.” He later posted: “I don’t know but it was massive. There were lots of fire brigade /police cars minutes later going through A40.”
Jack Frowde, 34, from Oxford, who works at Oxford University, said: “I was sitting in my kitchen when the whole room lit up with a brilliant white light, then followed by a huge crack which sounded like really heavy thunder.
“I looked out of the kitchen window and it was as if the sky was pulsating orange. I ran to the back to capture the orange glow as it faded after about 20 seconds.”
Oxfordshire Fire and Rescue Service and Thames Valley Police have been contacted for comment.
Very helpful once they have announced that they expect the public to pay for the infrastructure backlog. An invitation to a meeting for which registrations are now closed.
Email – note the date
From: Pennon Group Plc <donotreply@linkshareholderinformation.co.uk>
Sent: Tuesday, 3 October 2023, 06:36:07 BST
Subject: Pennon Group Plc: Our Plan for Change 2025-30. We’re Doing This.
Dear WaterShare+ customer,
Our Plan for Change 2025-30. We’re Doing This.
Introducing our business plan for the next five years.
We place huge value on every one of our WaterShare+ customers. Not only do you have a stake in the business as shareholders, but an important and growing say in how we run your water company.
Your feedback matters and has been instrumental in shaping the plan that we have submitted to Ofwat today. At its heart is a commitment to tackle the biggest challenges in the region head on, and to solving the things that matter most to customers.
It’s a plan that goes further in tackling the biggest challenges in our region, as we invest to protect water quality and resilience, tackle storm overflows at our beaches, eradicate pollutions and protect the environment from climate change. With a laser like focus on efficiency, it’s also a plan that supports customer affordability.
We will invest around £2.8billion over the period, the largest investment in decades, and create up to 2000 jobs.
You will find a short summary of what will be achieved in each area attached. You can also find out more detail in our Customer Summary or take the time to read the full business plan here
.
Our Plan will now be reviewed by customers, stakeholders and our regulators. We are keen to hear more from you on our Plan – so you can have your say by attending one of our Watershare+ public meetings or come and join us for our Your Water, Your Say session on 6 November, where we will talk about our plans and listen to what customers think.
We’re Doing This recognises that change is needed, now. This plan is more than a commitment, it is what we are doing. So, thank you for being part of our business. And thank you for supporting your water company.
Dr Frank Luntz, an American political analyst, said on the first day of the Conservative Party conference that any MP with less than an 8,000 majority should be concerned about being re-elected.
Simon Jupp was the only Devon Tory to get fewer than a 12,000 majority in 2019’s general election, receiving 6,708 votes more than an independent candidate in East Devon.
The Conservatives held onto 10 seats, with Labour’s Luke Pollard winning in Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport and Sir Ben Bradshaw retaining the Labour seat he has held since 1997 in Exeter.
Liberal Democrat Richard Foord reduced the Tory stronghold to nine seats by winning a by-election in Tiverton and Honiton last year after the resignation of shamed Tory MP Neil Parish, who stepped down after admitting he watched pornography in the House of Commons.
Mr Foord and Simon Jupp will battle for the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat at the next election.
Labour has effectively conceded that it can’t win much in Devon, however well it is doing in the national polls.
According to a leaked list, it will not prioritise its resouces trying to win in Torbay, the newly configured constituencies of Honiton and Sidmouth, Tiverton and Minehead, Torridge and Tavistock, or North Devon.
And despite the Liberal Democrats believing they can take seats from the Tories, Conservative dominance in the county is likely to remain, according to Dr Luntz.
The pollster, whose has David Cameron and Barack Obama among his fans, has earlier told Tory backbenchers that anyone with a margin of less than 15,000 should prepare to lose their seats.
He now admits this figure was “provocative”.
Dr Luntz told Times Radio that some Tory MPs would be shocked on election day.
“Some of these MPs have already understood the frustration with the public, understood the tension between the economy and the environment, which is the conversation I kept hearing,” he said.
“[They] expressed their frustration about immigration, crime and the roads, don’t see that Labour’s going to bring about the change they want and they’re already winning back disaffected Tories.”
The next general election has to take place by 28 January 2025.
While no official announcement has been made, betting is increased on the chances of a May poll.
The Devon MPs in the 2019 general election won with these majorities:
South West Devon, Gary Streeter (Con), majority 21,430
Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish (Con), 24,239
Torridge and West Devon, Geoffrey Cox (Con), 24,992
Construction of a secure vehicle store. Unit G Reme Drive Heathpark Industrial Estate Honiton EX14 1SERef. No: 23/1940/FUL | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
Single-storey side extension. 4 Copp Hill Lane Budleigh Salterton EX9 6DTRef. No: 23/1889/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
Proposed single storey side extension. Umborne Institute Hall Shute Devon EX13 7QLRef. No: 23/1790/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
Erection of one dwelling house (Use Class C3). Land Lying West Of Abbeyfield Cottage Dunkeswell Honiton EX14 4SDRef. No: 23/1712/CPE | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
(He’s changed his phone a number of times in the past three years without backing them up, as you do – Owl)
Rishi Sunak has told the Covid-19 inquiry that he is unable to provide WhatsApp messages from his time as Chancellor during the pandemic because he failed to back them up, it has been reported.
The prime minister wrote in his witness statement that he does “not have access” to the messages because he changed his phone several times, The Guardian claimed.
It comes as the second stage of the inquiry, led by Baroness Heather Hallett, begins on Tuesday and is set to examine key decision-making in Westminster between January 2020 and February 2022, when the final Covid restrictions in England were lifted.
Ministers and other government officials are expected to give evidence during the second module of the inquiry, titled “core UK decision-making and political governance”.
Previously, there was a delay in former prime minister Boris Johnson handing over WhatsApp messages from his time leading the country during the pandemic after he reportedly forgot the passcode to his old mobile phone, before they were recovered by technical experts.
According to The Guardian, Mr Sunak’s statement to the inquiry says: “Having changed my phone a number of times over the last three years, I do not have access to the WhatsApp messages that I sent or received during the relevant time, and neither were the messages backed up.
“My expectation would be that if the officials on those groups had considered that any information being communicated by WhatsApp message needed to be preserved to form part of the official HMT record, then those officials would have taken steps to ensure that happened.”
Earlier this year, the Cabinet Office tried to seek an exemption from providing information and messages it considered irrelevant to the inquiry’s work but it was dismissed by Baroness Hallett.
In response, the Government launched a legal challenge but it was struck down by the High Court in July, which confirmed the documents should be provided.
The inquiry is believed to now be in possession of unredacted WhatsApp messages between Mr Johnson and 40 colleagues, including former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings, cabinet secretary Simon Case and former chancellor Mr Sunak.
In response to The Guardian report, Downing Street said it will not be commenting on “leaks” and was “concerned selective sections of evidence” had been “handed to the media”.
“The Government established the Covid Inquiry to transparently establish the facts and we have submitted more than 55,000 documents in support of their work,” a Government spokesperson said.
“To ensure the integrity of the inquiry is not undermined it is vital that any evidence submitted is heard in context and in full and so we will not be commenting on leaks.
“We are concerned that selective sections of evidence appear to have been handed to the media and all possible steps should be taken to guard against further leaks.”
In July, Mr Johnson’s spokesperson said his messages had been retrieved and handed over to the inquiry.
However, The Guardian reported that Mr Johnson has told the inquiry in his witness statement that he is unable to access messages during the first wave of the pandemic between 31 January and 7 June 2020.
According to the paper, his statement says: “With the assistance of a technical team, we have been able to retrieve messages from the old phone.
“There is a period for which messages were not retrievable (from 31 January to 7 June 2020 inclusive). The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this.”
Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Mr Sunak failing to hand over his WhatsApp messages was “a disgrace”.
“It is a disgrace to hear that yet another Conservative has failed to send over their messages to this inquiry,” she said.
“This is straight from the Boris Johnson playbook.
“Rishi Sunak’s promise to govern with integrity has been left in tatters. The public deserve the whole truth instead of yet more Conservative cover-ups.”
Political decision making around lockdowns, travel restrictions and social distancing during the Covid pandemic are set be put under the microscope as the next phase of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry begins.
The Government’s work during the crisis will be scrutinised over the coming weeks as the inquiry examines key decision-making in Westminster between January 2020 and February 2022, when the final Covid restrictions in England were lifted.
The inquiry, led by Baroness Heather Hallett, will also examine the decisions behind regional restrictions, also known as the “tier system; work from home orders; mask wearing advice and border controls”.
It will scrutinise modelling data by scientists, which gave estimates on transmission of the virus and death rates.
Ministers and other government officials are expected to give evidence during the second module of the inquiry, titled “core UK decision-making and political governance”.
The inquiry has said it will “pay particular scrutiny” to the decisions taken by the then prime minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet.
A key piece of evidence is likely to include the WhatsApp messages of Mr Johnson.
The device he used during crucial periods of the Covid pandemic should contain messages relating to the ordering of three lockdowns in 2020.
The inquiry will also hold specific hearings on “the strategic and overarching issues” in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Public hearings for the second module of the inquiry will begin at Dorland House in London on Tuesday.
Opening statements will be read out on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday afternoon, it is expected that the inquiry will hear from Joanna Goodman of the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, Dr Alan Wightman of the Scottish Covid Bereaved and Anna-Louise Marsh-Rees of the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice Cymru.
Catriona Myles of the Northern Ireland Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, Professor James Nazroo, Professor Philip Banfield of the British Medical Association and Caroline Abrahams of Age UK will give evidence on Thursday.
On Friday, the inquiry will hear from Professor David Taylor-Robinson, former children’s commissioner Anne Longfield, Kate Bell of the Trades Union Congress, Ade Adeyemi of the Federation of Ethnic Minority Healthcare Organisations, Dr Claire Wenham and Rebecca Goshawk of Solace Women’s Aid.
Public hearings will take place across 35 days between 3 October and 14 December.
Could the Tory party implode again? Election date may not now be something Rishi Sunak can control. – Owl
Sixty Conservative MPs have joined Liz Truss’s Growth Group, imperilling the government’s majority in parliament, as Rishi Sunak was warned by former cabinet ministers “we cannot accept the status quo”.
At a packed fringe meeting during the Conservative party conference, Truss and her supporters held a rally where they pushed for the chancellor to cut corporation tax, build 500,000 new homes and resume fracking to cut energy bills.
Truss made her only public appearance during the gathering of activists in Manchester to suggest the Conservatives were no longer the party of business. She argued the state had become too big, with taxes and spending unsustainably high.
‘Lower the better’: Liz Truss calls for cut in corporation tax – video
Despite resigning from office nearly a year ago after her disastrous mini-budget, Truss showed no signs of contrition, saying Sunak should be willing to take tough decisions to help grow the economy even if they were unpopular.
Another former disaffected cabinet minister, Ranil Jayawardena, said the Conservative Growth Group of Truss’s allies had grown in size to include 60 MPs – the same size as the government’s majority in the Commons.
Jayawardena called for stamp duty to be scrapped on people’s principal homes, while Jacob Rees-Mogg also argued that what he called the “pernicious” inheritance tax should be scrapped.
The former home secretary Priti Patel said: “We cannot be timid any more, we cannot be risk averse and we cannot accept the status quo.”
It piles pressure on Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, before the king’s speech and autumn statement in November. Hunt acknowledged in his conference speech that “the level of tax is too high”, though added he was focused on tackling the “long-term” challenge of inflation first.
Despite more than 30 Tory MPs last week signing a pledge to vote against any moves to raise the tax burden, Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank said the chance for tax cuts was “very remote”.
“I don’t think there is space for tax cuts, unless we can think of some pretty radical ways,” Johnson told the Guardian at another conference fringe event in Manchester.
“It’s not just the immediate pressures that we’re seeing in public finances, but we know that we’re going to be needing to spend more on health and pensions, social care and everything going forward as a result of demographic change. So I think the chances of tax cuts are very remote.”
Jake Berry, the Conservative party chairman during Liz Truss’s premiership and one of those who signed the pledge to vote against further tax rises, said he was unafraid of standing up to Rishi Sunak’s administration.
“I think it’s pretty unlikely that the chief whip will kick people out of the Conservative party if they stand by their pledge, not least because there’s 33 who’ve signed already with more to come and that’s more than half of the government’s majority,” Berry told a rally of the New Conservatives group.
“You don’t have to have signed the tax pledge to be able to add up.”
However, new analysis compiled by Labour and shared with the Guardian showed that plans to scrap inheritance tax would benefit wealthy parts of the country.
Residents of two areas in west London – Kensington and Chelsea, and Hammersmith – were found to be liable for £201m in 2019-20 due to inheritance tax compared with just £61m in north-east England.
The next place to benefit most was Surrey West, where inheritance tax in the same year raised £157m. The area overlaps with Hunt’s own constituency of south-west Surrey.
Labour argued that with only 4% of people liable to pay inheritance tax, there were stark regional divides between who would benefit. London and south-east England account for more than 50% of the estimated inheritance tax take, compared with only 8% in the north-east and north-west, 5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, and 10% in the Midlands.
Tactical voting is increasingly being adopted by supporters of minority parties as the only way to make their vote count in electoral outcomes under our “first past the post” system.
Locally, this has become apparent over the past three local district council election cycles.
Even if it is more by accident than design, the resulting East Devon District coalition council has a membership about as representative of the electorate as might be achieved by a PR voting system.
In by-elections it is also becoming apparent just how sophisticated the electorate can be in working out which candidate is most likely to unseat an undesirable incumbent.
Our difficulty in East Devon is that the two constituencies covering our area have both been reorganised to a significant degree and we don’t have quite such an intuitive feel as to how the relative political parties rank.
In the last couple of parliamentary elections Claire Wright became a serious contender for what, historically, was the “safe as houses” Tory stronghold of East Devon commanding 26,00 votes (40% ) in 2019 and reducing Jupp’s legacy to a marginal 6,700 votes.
Claire’s previous supporters almost certainly now hold the key to who wins in both constituencies.
Claire has already formally endorsed Richard Foord, Lib Dem, for Honiton and Sidmouth.
It remains to be seen whether any contender party for Exmouth and Exeter East selects somebody she can also endorse.
Owl’s view is that forecasting the result for these two constituencies can’t easily be read from national opinion polling.
Here is a summary of the constituency carve-up.
New Exmouth and Exeter East Constituency comprises: 72.6% of Devon East ; 12.1% of Exeter and 2.3% of Devon Central New Honiton and Sidmouth Constituency comprises: 62.0% of Tiverton and Honiton and 26.5% of Devon East
Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a poll for the Independent to see how much tactical voting there might be at the next general election and who would benefit from it.
We asked 2,881 people about how they would tactically vote in the next general election. Our main findings are:
Supporters of smaller parties are most inclined to vote tactically
Sixty per cent of Green supporters say they are likely to vote tactically
Forty-eight per cent of Liberal Democrat supporters say the same
But only 37pc and 15pc of Labour and Conservative voters respectively would vote tactically
Tactical votes are mostly shared between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens
Conservative voters mostly tactically vote for the Lib Dems, but the favour is seldom reciprocated
At a general election, tactical voting could cost the Conservatives 35 more lost seats – Labour gaining 28 and the Lib Dems 7
Respondents were initially asked for their first and second preference party in the hypothetical situation that all parties would have an equal chance of winning in their area, to try to measure their true party preference before any tactical considerations.
Party
First Choice
Second Choice
Either
Conservative Party
21%
10%
27%
Labour Party
34%
24%
50%
Liberal Democrats
12%
30%
35%
Reform UK
8%
8%
14%
Green Party
19%
21%
35%
SNP
4%
2%
6%
Plaid Cymru
0%
1%
1%
Other
2%
3%
4%
Table excludes those who refused to express a preference, and those who are unlikely to vote.
The smaller parties have more support under this question than they do with FPTP elections. The Greens have about 20pc support here, compared with about 5pc in voting intention surveys.
Regarding the second preference parties, around 50% of Green supporters have Labour as their second choice and 25% have the Liberal Democrats. This is broadly reciprocated by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters. These findings suggest that tactical voting would likely benefit the Labour Party, Liberal Democrat and Greens far more than it would the Conservatives and Reform UK.
See Appendix 1 below for more details of voters’ first and second choices.
2. Likelihood to vote tactically
Then we asked respondents how likely they would be to vote tactically. The full question was “Suppose your first-choice party is unlikely to win the seat, but your second-choice party could. On a scale of 0-10, how likely are you to switch your vote to your second-choice party?”.
About 35% of people answered 8, 9 or 10, which we took as a reasonable threshold for being quite likely to vote tactically. But supporters of minor parties were more likely to vote tactically.
First choiceParty
Fraction whowould vote tactically
Conservative Party
15%
Labour Party
37%
Liberal Democrats
48%
Reform UK
29%
Green Party
60%
SNP / Plaid Cymru
28%
Other
23%
All voters
35%
Our main finding was that supporters of the smaller parties were the most inclined to vote tactically. Around 60% of people whose first preference party is the Green party have said that they would vote for their second preference party in cases where they didn’t think the Greens would come first or second in their seat. This number is also high for Liberal Democrat supporters, 48% of whom would probably vote tactically.
As for the major two parties, our figures show that 37% and 15% of Labour and Conservative voters respectively would vote tactically.
3. Picking the right winners
For tactical voting to work, voters need a reasonable and consistent idea of which two parties are likely to be competitive in their seat. For example, if voters disagree on who the challenger to the Conservatives is, then tactical voting may not happen or might cancel itself out.
Normally, voters might look at the last election result to give them an idea of which parties are competitive in their seat. But this is complicated by two new factors:
There has been a massive change in public opinion since December 2019 and Labour have gained over 10pc in the polls. There could be many Conservative seats where the Lib Dems were in second place in 2019, but Labour are likely to be the challenger next time. That creates an alternative benchmark for tactical decisions.
The seat boundaries have been redrawn by the Boundary Commissions. In many cases, the political composition of someone’s new seat has changed. Fewer than 150 seats are mostly unchanged by the boundary review. This creates voter confusion, since there isn’t a definitive previous election result for most new seats.
To explore this issue we asked people which pair of parties they think are likely to come in first and second place (in either order) in their own seat.
To simplify the results, we only looked at respondents who were both likely to vote and likely to vote tactically, and who had a definite opinion about their own seat.
We checked to see how many people matched or did not match the top two parties coming from four different methods: GE result of old seats; Current prediction of old seats; Implied GE result of new seats; Current prediction of new seats. The answers are shown in the table below.
Method
MatchedTop-Two
UnmatchedTop-Two
GE result of old seat
49%
51%
Prediction for old seat
53%
47%
Implied GE of new seat
49%
51%
Prediction for new seat
50%
50%
Given the sample sizes are relatively small, it is hard to draw definite conclusions, other than to say that about half of tactically-inclined people have a good idea of which are the competitive parties in their own seat.
Electoral Impact
We can work out the likely effect of tactical voting if there were a general election. To do this, we make a few assumptions
The General election is conducted using the existing seats
Tactical voters all know which two parties are predicted to be in the top-two in their seat (the competitive parties)
Supporters of any uncompetitive party will vote tactically with a probability given by the table in section 2 above.
Tactical voters will switch from uncompetitive party A to competitive party B with the probability given in the Tactical Matrix (Appendix 1) for row A and column B.
With and without tactical voting, the election prediction is given in the next table:
Party
Vote Shares
Pred SeatsNo TV
Pred Seatswith TV
Changedue to TV
CON
28%
159
124
−35
LAB
44%
414
440
26
LIB
11%
26
32
6
Reform
7%
0
0
0
Green
6%
1
1
0
SNP
4%
28
31
3
Plaid
1%
4
4
0
The figures show that tactical voting could change the result in more than thirty seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats being the main beneficiaries. The SNP gains in Scotland are from Green supporters who vote SNP tactically, but more work is needed to confirm that trend.
Quotes
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: “The indication that tactical voting is being used as a tool to punish the Conservatives is the most important takeaway from our poll. More broadly, this poll give us an insight into how people are working within the First Past the Post system to express their dislike for the Tories.”
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: “Our figures show that the next election is likely to see straightforward anti-Conservative tactical voting, compared with the pro- and anti- Brexit tactical voting that was seen in 2019. Many Conservative seats, particularly in the south of England, are at risk. But the new seat boundaries will add an extra complicating factor for voters who want to vote tactically.”
Technical Details
Find Out Now polled 2,881 GB adults online between 15–16 August 2023. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Full Data Tables are available for download as an Excel spreadsheet.
Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council.
Find Out Now
Find Out Now gathers poll responses from Pick My Postcode, a daily panel from 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, and at scale to deliver reliable results fast.
More than 124 million responses have been received to Find Out Now’s polls since it launched in November 2018. Find Out Now are Market Research Society Company Partners and a member of the British Polling Council.
“What happened to the money we have already given the water companies? Why are we being asked to pay for a second time for a service they didn’t get the first time around? The fact is some of these firms cannot afford to service their debts.” Feargal Sharkey
Water bills will rise by about £84 a year on average as companies in England and Wales pump a record £96 billion into improving environmental standards and securing supplies, after widespread criticism.
The planned investment, which is nearly double the £51 billion being put into infrastructure in the present five-year regulatory period, will feature in the companies’ latest spending plans, to be published on Monday. They will be submitted to Ofwat, the industry regulator, which has a year to review them before giving its approval and determining the level at which bills will be set.
The investment in infrastructure over five years from 2025 is designed to tackle sewage overflows and reduce leakage as well as avoid water shortages.
The proposed spending means that water and sewerage bills, which average £448 a year at present, are likely to rise from April 2025. In England the expected rise is £7 a month, or £84 a year, according to estimates from Water UK, the industry body.
Ruth Kelly, the chairwoman of Water UK and a former Labour MP, said: “Bill rises are never welcome, but in keeping bills low, the environment and the security of our water supply has been paying the price. Those issues now need to be confronted head on.”
According to Water UK, investors will put up the money and the costs will be paid back in increments each year through bills. The process is designed to keep costs down and protects customers against paying up front for the billions needed to improve the UK’s ageing infrastructure. Under the proposals, the number of households receiving support with bills will more than double, to 3.2 million.
Feargal Sharkey, the former Undertones frontman and a water campaigner, said consumers were being asked to pay again for services that they had already funded. He said: “What happened to the money we have already given the water companies? Why are we being asked to pay for a second time for a service they didn’t get the first time around? The fact is some of these firms cannot afford to service their debts.”
Poor water quality
Number of Times readers who describe the water quality of the river/waterway in their local area as poor
Chart: The Times and The Sunday Times
Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, said: “Major improvements are needed to deliver clean and plentiful water now, and in the future . . . I have been very clear with Ofwat that customers should not pay the price for poor performance and they should use the full powers we have given them on behalf of consumers.”
If the spending plans are approved, they will pave the way for the development of up to ten reservoirs and up to nine desalination plants. New cross-country pipes will carry water from the wetter north to the drier south.
The Times Clean It Up campaign has been calling for tougher regulation of water companies and has urged the government to sufficiently staff and resource its regulators.
David Black, the chief executive of Ofwat, said: “The water industry needs to deliver a step change in investment and performance to clean up our rivers and seas, while also helping to ensure that we can meet the challenge of climate change.
“Company business plans are an important first step in the price review process. Ofwat’s role is to forensically scrutinise their proposals, to ensure any increase in bills is justified, efficient and delivers significant improvements in river and bathing water quality. We will assess how companies are helping customers to afford any bill increase.”
Ofwat added that bills must be “fair” and that customers would pay only for future investment, “not past company mistakes”. The regulator is putting in place an incentive regime which rewards companies for effective delivery, but hits those that fail to step up to the challenge with larger penalties.
Ofwat said: “As we work through the business plans we will continue to monitor companies’ performance, hold them to account for delivering improvements and push them to build meaningful plans to change.”
Water UK said the plans would also help create more than 30,000 new jobs and 4,000 apprenticeships for the sector, supply chain and wider economy.
The Times is demanding faster action to improve the country’s waterways. Find out more about the Clean It Up campaign.
We haven’t always got it right but the cost of inaction is huge
Ruth Kelly is chairwoman of Water UK
The water industry stands at a crossroads (Ruth Kelly writes). On Monday, all water companies in England and Wales will submit their five-year investment plans to the regulator, Ofwat, for consideration. Combined, this amounts to a £96 billion programme of investment in our water infrastructure — the biggest in the sector’s history. This is investment designed to put on a firm footing the security of our water supplies and start making significant inroads into tackling some of the environmental challenges we face. These plans will also create more than 30,000 new jobs, a near 50 per cent increase of the current workforce, and 4,000 apprenticeships for the sector, supply chain and wider economy right across the country.
We know that the industry has not got this right in the past. Over the past 30 years since privatisation, investment has risen by 90 per cent and we now have among the cleanest and safest drinking water in the world, pipes now leak over a third less water than they used to and the proportion of beaches rated excellent has risen sevenfold. But much of our infrastructure dates from the Victorian era and is nearing the end of its useful life. Despite the fact that investment rose significantly, it did not keep pace with the challenges from an ageing infrastructure, population growth and climate change. Nor did it meet public expectations on the environment.
Our population has grown 18 per cent since the 1990s. No reservoir has opened since, and sewage treatment has not expanded fast enough. With less investment than we needed, we have had the benefit of relatively low water bills. They have fallen by nearly 20 per cent in real terms since 2010.
Bill rises are never welcome, but in keeping bills low, the environment and the security of our water supply has been paying the price. Those issues now need to be confronted head on.
Ofwat will be poring over the plans before determining what is allowed, and at what price, before announcing its conclusions in the run-up to Christmas 2024.
People will rightly want to see results from any increase in bills that Ofwat allows. That is what the proposals aim to deliver. If approved, they will allow the development of up to ten new reservoirs and up to nine new desalination plants. New cross-country pipes will carry water from the wetter north to the drier south. And in England, companies aim to triple the current level of investment to reduce storm overflows of sewage into waterways. If approved by Ofwat, the health of England’s rivers will improve enormously, with 90 per cent less phosphorous from water companies by 2027 than in the 1990s, in line with the Environment Act’s ambitious targets for the most damaging pollutants. These are the kinds of new projects that companies want to deliver, the country needs and the public rightly expects.
Importantly, the regulator will ensure bills are no higher than needed to fund each improvement and will only approve them if they agree they are new, necessary and represent value for money. If improvements aren’t delivered, bills will automatically be reduced.
Water companies are determined that nobody is left behind. Firms in England will provide nearly a million more households with help on bills, with packages of support ranging from reduced tariffs to payment breaks.
The need for investment to upgrade and expand our system is true across the UK. Whether the infrastructure is owned by the state, as it is in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or by a regulated company, as in England and Wales, the picture is the same.
As an industry, we have apologised for not acting quickly enough on sewage spills and are planning our largest ever investment to put it right.
Ultimately, it is up to the regulator and our politicians to determine the level of investment they will allow and the extent to which they too are willing to reflect the public’s concerns. We cannot afford to shirk these difficult decisions any longer.
Remember the only town in the South West to receive this government largess is Torbay.
Here is what the Torbay Lib Dem Leader has to say:
Steve Darling, leader of the Liberal Democrats on Torbay Council, said the funding was welcome, but its annual gap in funding was about £96m a year, “so £20m over a decade is just a drop in the ocean”.
He said: “Over many years, Torbay Council have faced hundreds of millions of pounds of cuts – it’s the equivalent of having £96 stolen out of your wallet and expected to be grateful when you’re given £2 back.
“We need much more serious money over many years to actually tackle the challenges that we face rather than effectively the crumbs from the table… this is not good enough.”
Cabinet ministers were forced to give speeches in half-empty halls while a major split emerged over tax as the Tory Party conference got off to a shaky start.
Foreign secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Grant Shapps were confronted with rows of empty seats as the annual get-together kicked off in Manchester.
And Rishi Sunak’s attempts to re-launch his stuttering leadership were dealt a blow as levelling up secretary Michael Gove called for taxes to be cut before the next election.
Interviewed by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg this morning, the prime minister was asked: “Have you really got your party under control?”
The Tories are gathering for what could be the last time before the election with Labour still well ahead in the polls.
Sunak is attempting to re-set his leadership nearly a year after he replaced Liz Truss as PM.
Last week he announced he was watering down many of the government’s green policies and has also pledged to end the “war on motorists” he claims is being waged by councils around the country.
But his attempt at a fightback is at risk of being thrown off course by his internal party critics.
A “Great British Growth Rally” at the conference tomorrow will see Truss joined by Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg in demanding tax cuts.
They were joined this morning by Gove, who told Sky News he would “like to see the tax burden reduced by the next election”.
“We should make sure that [workers] are better rewarded for the enterprise, effort and endeavour they put in,” he said.
Asked about Gove’s comments on “Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg” on the BBC, Sunak refused to back his colleague.
He said: “We are all Conservatives, of course I want to cut taxes [but] the best tax cut I can deliver right now for the country is to halve inflation.
“It is inflation that is putting the prices of things up, inflation impacting the cost of living, inflation eating into people’s savings, their bank accounts, their wallets.
“And that’s why the first of my priorities is to bring inflation down – to halve it – and I am pleased we are making progress.”
Meanwhile, Tory activists appeared to vote with their feet by snubbing a succession of cabinet ministers.
Both Cleverly and Shapps – two of the cabinet’s big beasts – were left embarrassed as they gave their big speeches in the sparsely-populated main conference hall.
Both used their addresses to launch outspoken attacks on Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.
Cleverly said they were “a group of political chancers and visionless ideologues” who did not deserve to win the next election.
Meanwhile, Shapps said Starmer was “a man focused on the short-term and lacking the backbone to make the big changes that Britain needs”.
The defence secretary added: “In Rishi Sunak, we have a leader who has weathered a brutal baptism of fire and is coming through. His mettle has been tested and not found wanting.
“He has stuck to his course, trusting in what he believes to be right for the country. It doesn’t always make him popular in the short term – but that is the price of doing the right thing.”
Water industry regulator Ofwat has been asked to approve the plans.
If given the green light, water companies say the “record-breaking investment proposals” will secure the country’s water supply in the long-term.
Industry body Water UK said it is planning the “most ambitious modernisation of sewers since the Victorian era” and by the end of the decade said it could reduce leaks by a quarter compared with 2020.
It also said it would cut sewage spills into waterways by more than 140,000 each year by 2030. Water companies spilled sewage into rivers and seas more than 300,00 times in 2022.
The cost of the upgrades will be spread over decades, but if the regulator approves the plans the average annual bill will go up by £84 in 2025 rising to £156 extra by 2030.
While Environment Secretary Therese Coffey broadly welcomed the investment plans, she said Ofwat should ensure customers do not “pay the price for poor performance”
The regulator, she said, “should use the full powers we have given them on behalf of consumers”.
Ms Coffey added: “Now is the time for water companies to step up and deliver lasting changes for future generations.”
Last week Ofwat ordered water companies to pay back £114m to customers through lower bills after missing key targets.
The regulator said firms were “falling short” on performance measures around leaks, supply and reducing pollution.
The regulator said in its assessment that not one company reached the highest measure of performance.
Dŵr Cymru, Southern, Thames, Anglian, Bristol, South East and Yorkshire Water fell into the lowest category of “lagging” and the remaining 10 were rated “average”. None were considered “leading”.
If water companies fail to meet the targets it sets, Ofwat restricts the cash that they can take from customers.
All but five of the water providers reviewed will have to give money back to customers by reducing their bills in 2024-25, rather than each bill payer getting a lump sum refund.
Almost nine in 10 voters who intend to switch their support from Conservative to Labour candidates in the next general election believe that “green growth” is important for the future of Britain’s economy, according to a poll.
Carried out by pollsters Opinium, the survey found that 82% of all respondents backed the growth of Britain’s green industry to boost the economy, in the same week that the prime minister announced a series of U-turns on the government’s green commitments in an attempt to create a dividing line with Labour before the election.
The survey of more than 5,000 adults found support for the green economy was even stronger among swing voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 and are now planning to switch to Labour, at 88%.
The survey was carried out between 8 and 20 September, when the prime minister confirmed a major about-turn on the government’s climate commitments. Rishi Sunak said the UK would push back the ban on selling new petrol and diesel cars and the phasing out of gas boilers. He also plans to dilute energy efficiency standards.
Business leaders and green groups criticised the move for undermining Britain’s green economic agenda, while senior members of the Conservative party raised concerns that Sunak’s gamble may cost the Tories voters in the upcoming election.
When asked which of the chancellor’s five “priority sectors” of the economy were most likely to encourage growth overall, twice as many people thought green industries would have the biggest positive impact on overall growth than any other sector, including life sciences, digital tech and advanced manufacturing.
Growing investment in renewable energy was backed by 71% of respondents, according to the poll, which was commissioned by trade association Renewable UK. Only 40% of respondents agreed that the Tory party had even partially delivered on this commitment. Renewable UK is expected to reveal the findings of the poll at an event at the Conservative party conference.
The Conservative MP, Alok Sharma, president of the Cop26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021, said: “The prime minister’s recent call for the UK to embrace the incredible opportunities of green industry with even greater enthusiasm is clearly backed by people across the country.
“However, attracting inwards green investment does require further action and I therefore look forward to the government’s promised response in the autumn statement to the US’s Inflation Reduction Act which is hoovering up many billions of pounds of private sector investment and causing some companies to think about prioritising expanding in the US ahead of the UK,” he said.
Sunak’s green U-turn came just weeks after the government’s annual renewable energy auction failed to secure bids from any offshore wind developers. Greenpeace described the outcome as “the biggest disaster for clean energy policy in the last eight years” because it risked jeopardising the UK’s plan to triple its offshore wind power capacity by 2030, and cast doubt on Britain’s climate targets.
Nathan Bennett, a director at Renewable UK, said the polling demonstrates “very clearly that people see the success of green industries as vital to the UK’s economic growth”.
“Although we welcome the prime minister reiterating his support for green industries in his net zero speech, this has to be backed up with tangible measures to make the UK a more attractive market for green investment or we will see factories and jobs which could have been in the UK go overseas,” Bennett said.
“This polling shows not only that there is a wealth of public support for new incentives to secure renewable energy projects and manufacturing, but that people be would disappointed if we fail to secure these investments,” he said.
The government confirmed it had defined a “containment area” covering the river’s tidal waters and coastal zone.
Samples were taken from the site after a shellfish farmer reported “unusual mortalities”.
The Fish Health Inspectorate (FHI) said there was no risk to other marine life or humans.
Chris Evans, lead inspector at the FHI told the BBC they took samples from the site in August which tested positive for the oyster herpesvirus-1 microvariant among Pacific oysters.
“Farmers can still sell Pacific oysters for human consumption as they normally do because the risk of the disease transferring through that route is very minimal,” Mr Evans said.
The virus is spread through the movement of oysters, shipping movements, or even people not cleaning their boots, he said, with no known link to contamination or dredging.
He added: “Oyster herpes virus microvariant is what we call a listed disease.
“So the government wants to place controls and stop the spread of it, because it has the potential to impact upon not only oysters, but also businesses operating in the coastal zone.”
He said outbreaks can lead to “upwards of about 90% mortality”, impacting farmers who “lose a significant amount of stock” and leading to economic damage.
“When I worked on an oyster farm myself it was horrible to see the amount of stock die,” he added.
“There’s no treatment for it.”
Mr Evans said the first known occurrence of the virus was in Kent in 2009.
It then spread along the coastline to areas including Essex and Poole Harbour, and is also present in Jersey.
This was the first time the virus had been recorded in the Exe, although the Teign has been classed as a “containment area” since 2015, he confirmed.
Once an area is designated, it remains for as long as it is listed, and it is a “warm water disease”, Mr Evans said.
His team monitors the coastline to try and keep it free from the virus, working closely with farmers on biosecurity measures, and raising public awareness of containment zones.
Martyn Syvret of Aquafish Solutions, is establishing a pilot oyster farm within the containment zone on the Exe.
He said: “This disease can create large scale mortalities and has an economic impact.
“Being a disease-free area means farms can only buy seed from certain hatcheries, whereas having the virus means they can buy more cheaply from French hatcheries.”
He added: “The French industry is putting a lot of resource into developing new strains of Pacific oysters that are less susceptible to the virus.”
‘Disappointment’
David Jarrad, chief executive of the Shellfish Association of Great Britain, said: “I think it is sad.
“But it’s not surprising as oyster herpes is endemic in other European countries.”
He stressed the virus only affects Pacific oysters, adding: “Any oysters on the market are, of course perfectly safe to eat.
“It hasn’t been found anywhere else over recent years, which we had hoped was a good thing, so this was a disappointment to see that is has now been found in the Exe,” he added.
From our “overlooked” region the nearest this levelling up gets is a solitary mention of Torquay! – Owl
More than 50 “overlooked” UK towns will each be given £20 million over a 10-year period to help regenerate high streets and tackle anti-social behaviour.
The Prime Minister said the long-term vision for towns, backed by £1 billion of investment, was about putting “funding in the hands of local people” to improve their communities.
The announcement made on Saturday will see 55 towns, including seven in Scotland and four in Wales, given a £20 million endowment-style fund – each to be spent over the course of a decade.
It is set to be used on local priorities such as reviving high streets, tackling anti-social behaviour, improving transport, boosting visitor numbers and growing the local economy.
“But politicians have always taken towns for granted and focused on cities.
“The result is the half-empty high streets, rundown shopping centres and anti-social behaviour that undermine many towns’ prosperity and hold back people’s opportunity – and without a new approach, these problems will only get worse.
“That changes today. Our Long-Term Plan for Towns puts funding in the hands of local people themselves to invest in line with their priorities, over the long-term. That is how we level up.”
As part of the investment, the towns will set up a town board, bringing together community leaders, employers, local authorities and the local MP, to help deliver a plan for consultation.
The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) said the town boards would be able to use a suite of regeneration powers while deploying the new funding.
Officials suggested more private sector investment could be unlocked by auctioning empty high street shops, reforming licensing rules on shops and restaurants, and supporting more housing in urban centres.
They said research showed communities want to see more green spaces created and market days established to enhance town centres, with policing hotspots implemented to make public spaces safer.
Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove said: “We know that in our towns the values of hard work and solidarity, common sense and common purpose, endeavour and quiet patriotism have endured across generations.
“But for too long, too many of our great British towns have been overlooked and undervalued.
“We are putting this right through our Long-Term Plan for Towns backed by over £1 billion of levelling up funding.
“This will empower communities in every part of the UK to take back control of their future, taking long term decisions in the interests of local people.
“It will mean more jobs, more opportunities and a brighter future for our towns and the people who live and work in them.”
Ministers have promised central government support for the town boards as they formulate their vision.
A Towns Taskforce, sitting in the Department for Levelling Up and reporting directly to the Prime Minister and Mr Gove, will help them develop their plans and advise on how best to take advantage of government policies, unlock private and philanthropic investment and work with communities.
DLUHC said towns had been allocated funding according to the Levelling Up Needs Index, taking into account metrics covering skills, pay, productivity and health, as well as the Index of Multiple Deprivation, to ensure funding goes directly to the towns which will benefit most.
Mr Gove’s department said the Government would work with local councils and the devolved administrations to determine how towns in Scotland and Wales will benefit from funding and powers under the proposals.
Officials said they “look forward” to working with a restored executive, with powersharing currently collapsed in Stormont, to determine the approach for providing support to Northern Ireland’s towns.
The full list of 55 towns benefiting from £20 million of funding:
The Conservatives gather in Manchester this weekend, giving them an opportunity to celebrate 13 years in power. Yet there is a risk the event might take on the air of a wake.
The party finds itself on average 18 points behind Labour in the polls, little better than its position 12 months ago after Liz Truss was displaced as prime minister by Rishi Sunak. Meanwhile, YouGov’s data suggests that Mr Sunak’s initial personal popularity has largely disappeared, leaving him barely any more popular than his party.
But why do they find themselves in this position – and thus need to engineer a radical change in the public mood if they are to be in power after the next election? Some potentially valuable clues are to be found in the answers to two questions included in a poll conducted by the Public First agency for the Conservative-inclined Onward think tank at the beginning of August.
The company asked voters first of all what they thought the main achievements of the Conservatives had been over the last 13 years.
The most widely acknowledged by far was securing early access to a Covid vaccine – picked out by 40 per cent. Meanwhile, around one in five reckoned Brexit and gay marriage could be added to the list (though Conservatives themselves were keener on the former than the latter). Nothing else was selected by many more than one in ten.
Then, Public First asked what the party’s main failures were. Top of the list, again on 40 per cent, was too little effort on the NHS. At the same time, between a quarter and a third identified the cost of living, Liz Truss’ handling of the economy, high levels of immigration, and lockdown parties. In addition, Brexit was the one subject that appeared on both sides of the ledger. The list of failures is rather longer than the list of perceived achievements.
There is also clear evidence in the polls that those who voted Conservative in 2019, and who think that things have gone badly, are less likely to say they would vote Conservative again than those Tory supporters who think rather better about how things have been going. In short, the perception of failure is associated with defection.
For example, on health, the British Election Study’s big internet panel shows that just 45 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and who think the NHS has gotten a lot worse say they would vote Conservative again. In contrast, three-quarters of those who feel the NHS has gotten better say they will vote for the party again.
Trouble is, 2019 Conservative voters are twice as likely to think the health service has gotten a lot worse than they are to believe it has got better.
Similarly, on the economy, the same study shows that only around a half of those 2019 Conservatives who think the economy has gotten a lot worse now say they will vote Conservative – compared with three-quarters of those who are less critical of the state of the economy.
And nearly two in five 2019 Conservatives think the economy has gotten a lot worse.
Fortunately, for the Conservatives, very few of their supporters have changed their mind about Brexit – though only one in three of those who have, and would now vote to rejoin the EU, would back the party again.
However, on immigration the story is different. Whether or not 2019 Conservative voters think immigration has gone up or down makes relatively little difference to whether they would vote Conservative again. According to the recent polling conducted by Redfield & Wilton for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, the difference is no more than five points.
The picture is much the same in respect of “illegal” immigration, on which the prime minister has placed so much emphasis with his pledge to stop the boats.
While Conservative supporters are particularly keen to see immigration reduced, the government’s perceived failure to do so is not something that is dissuading them from voting Conservative again.
Meanwhile, collectively the polls conducted since the government’s latest attempt to appeal to its core voters by slowing the implementation of some net zero measures has had – at most – no more than a marginal impact on the party’s standing in the polls.
The message is clear. If the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis – a weak economy, an inflationary spiral, and poorly functioning public services. That means cutting NHS times as well as halving inflation. Trying to focus voters’ attention elsewhere, such as on so-called “wedge issues” like immigration and net zero, is unlikely to be enough.
John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast
Five Devon constituencies feature on leaked ‘non-priority’ list (including Honiton and Sidmouth).
So the “progressive alliance” vote is now less likely to be divided in Honiton and Sidmouth, not good news for the chicken runner! – Owl
The Labour Party won’t plough resources into trying to beat Tory Kevin Foster in Torbay at the next general election, according to a leaked document.
The bay is one of five of Devon’s parliamentary constituencies to appear on the list of ‘non-priority’ seats for the party. The others are Honiton and Sidmouth; Tiverton and Minehead; Torridge and Tavistock and North Devon.
It means the party has effectively conceded that it can’t win in much of Devon, however well it is doing in the national polls.
The county’s political map will change significantly the next time the country goes to the polls, when existing boundaries for a number of constituencies change, along with some of their names.
The Totnes constituency, for instance, will be known as South Devon to reflect the fact that it includes towns such as Brixham, Dartmouth and Kingsbridge.
There will also be changes elsewhere in the county, where unfamiliar names on voting papers will include Honiton and Sidmouth; Exmouth and East Exeter; Tiverton and Minehead and Torridge and Tavistock.
The list indicates Labour doesn’t think five seats are winnable, and therefore will not receive large amounts of central campaign funding.
Labour is currently leading in national opinion polls. The decision not to focus on the five leaked seats means more vigorous Labour campaigning could be expected in Central Devon; Exeter; Exeter East and Exmouth; Newton Abbot; Plymouth Moor View; Plymouth Sutton and Devonport; South Devon and South West Devon.
The next general election has to take place by 28 January 2025. While no official announcement has been made, it is considered possible that the election could take place on Thursday 2 May next year.
Currently Devon has two Labour MPs – Sir Ben Bradshaw (Exeter) and Luke Pollard (Plymouth Sutton and Devonport) – one Liberal Democrat – Richard Foord (Tiverton and Honiton) and nine Conservative MPs.
They are Selaine Saxby (North Devon), Kevin Foster (Torbay), Simon Jupp (East Devon), Anthony Mangnall (Totnes), Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot), Sir Gary Streeter (South West Devon), Mel Stride (Central Devon) and Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View) and Sir Geoffrey Cox (Torridge).
Should the enormous engineering feat of HS2 become Rishi Sunak’s white elephant, these could be its expensive tusks.
At what was once a staging post but now looks like the end of the line, Old Oak Common, two brand new tunnel boring machines are to be buried underground, unused, ready for action – a mere £40m of kit that may never now drill the route’s last six miles east into central London.
As a percentage of HS2’s outlay, a sunk £40m barely scrapes into the decimal points. A high-speed rail network originally budgeted at £32.7bn to link London, Manchester and Leeds in 2012 was revised up to £55bn in 2015. It remains at the current £71bn only due to savage pruning and a wilful refusal to update the price over years of runaway inflation.
The future station there will knit together Elizabeth line and Great Western main line services with HS2 trains arriving underneath, in the yawning 850m-long box already largely excavated in west London.
But only six high-speed train platforms will be available – fewer than at Euston – severely limiting any possible services to Manchester, the connection regarded even by supporters as the bare minimum for HS2 to make economic sense.
Developers at Old Oak Common are clear: the job of HS2 Ltd, and the contractors they supervise, is to deliver according to the government’s mandate – no matter how much that might be delayed, rejigged, gold-plated or cast into uncertainty.
Others working on the line are less diplomatic and restrained. “We’re a political project first and a construction project second,” says one senior manager.
HS2 and its contractors have had to accept a pause in construction to central London, announced by the transport secretary, Mark Harper, in March – just two months after the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, had committed to running the trains to Euston.
Under current plans, the two state-of-the-art tunnel boring machines under construction in Germany will be buried in an antechamber under Old Oak, to avoid jeopardising other crucial engineering work, while they await the go-ahead to Euston. It is not impossible to resume tunnelling under central London once trains or passengers start using the station – simply exponentially more difficult, disruptive and, again, expensive.
At Rickmansworth, Buckinghamshire, HS2’s biggest work site nestles just inside the M25, with purpose-built plants producing bespoke concrete segments for two of the most significant civil engineering works: the giant Colne Valley viaduct and the 13km tunnels through the Chilterns.
Acute inflation in construction – with labour scarce after Brexit and Covid and the cost of materials such as steel sent soaring by the war in Ukraine – left managers here with stark decisions. Buying a batch of steel reinforcements that had arrived in Liverpool at three times the normal price had to be set against the even greater cost of delaying tunnelling.
Both of these landmark projects also illustrate how other billions have clocked up. The tunnels, an early expensive concession to MPs in Conservative marginals, are extended with additional noise mitigation structures at the portal – a couple of hundred yards away from the constant roar of motorway traffic.
The tunnel ventilation shafts popping up at Chalfont Saint Peters and every few miles through the Chilterns will be artfully designed to look like barns and farmyards. A further redesign demanded by councils has come at another £3m cost, according to HS2.
The 3.4km length viaduct across the Colne Valley lakes – themselves partly human-made after quarrying and dredging – is built with special V-shaped concrete supports. It is designed to resemble a stone skimming across the surface of a lake – and make the construction palatable to the local authority, with a concrete finish that might not look out of place in a kitchen worktop.
There may well have been a cheaper way. But the environmental mitigations and cosmetic demands – largely from local Tory councils and politicians, ordering extravagant side dishes and then railing against the final bill – are, as one weary HS2 manager put it, simply the cost of building infrastructure in an island crammed with private property.
Prof Andrew McNaughton, who was technical director of HS2 from 2009 until 2017, concurs that costs have spun out of control, and the construction overdesigned – but believes a reset can put it back on track.
Two other factors, in his view, have piled on cost: the way contracts have been shaped and the excessive number of managers. Giving liability to the contractor has encouraged “designing for the worst possible case, deeper foundations, sinking more piles into the ground – these things add up”.
Meanwhile, McNaughton says, the project is being overseen by not just HS2 Ltd, but hundreds of Department for Transport employees and “development partners” from engineering consultancy firms: “You end up with this white-collar army out of proportion to what you see anywhere else in Europe.”
Although HS2 Ltd’s staffing and salaries appear excessive – with more than 40 employees earning more than £150,000 per annum and chief executives paid more than any other public official – McNaughton says that the bigger impact is the “creation of bureaucracy”: slowing down decisions and the signoff of designs, breeding uncertainty and piling on cost.
Nowhere has that been more evident than Euston station itself, where the estimated HS2 bill has ballooned to nearly £5bn, mired in indecision and uncertainty, according to the National Audit Office.
Meanwhile, arguments that were long deemed settled in parliament have been re-opened, with suspicious degrees of political expediency – from the review promised by Boris Johnson when vying for the party leadership in 2018, to the quiet axing of the Golborne Link through 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady’s constituency last year, to Sunak’s pre-election jockeying now.
For Northern mayors, who united in saying this week that stopping HS2 at Birmingham would be “an international embarrassment and a national outrage”, the added danger is the threat to work on Northern Powerhouse Rail, which was to be built upon Phase 2. Potential offers to divert funds into conventional rail – with yet more redesign and delay costs – might prove equally contentious: the price tag for the TransPennine route upgrade is running three times over budget.
At the other end of the planned line, near Euston, where the majority of people displaced by HS2 once lived, is a mothballed construction site: a “scar on London”, according to Mark Reynolds, the infuriated chief executive of contractor Mace. While the prolonged indecision at the height of government continues, Camden has a “a hole in the ground which is splitting apart and blighting our communities”. As a local councillor, Danny Beales, put it: “All this pain, for no long-term gain, is not acceptable.”
31 Ivydale Exmouth EX8 4TARef. No: 23/2033/TRE | Validated: Fri 22 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
East Devon Watch 