Daily Archives: 5 Jun 2024

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Planing applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 20 May

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5 Jun 2024

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How would a swing to Reform affect parliament?

The next election will be Nigel Farage’s eighth attempt to enter the House of Commons. Regardless of what happens in Clacton, it could be his most influential Westminster campaign yet.

For more than a year, opinion polls have shown support for the Conservatives squeezed on the left by Labour and on the right by Reform, who have been polling at around 11 per cent since the start of the general election campaign. What would a Farage boost do to the Tory vote?

Tom Calver www.thetimes.co.uk

Most polls taken this year generally agree that a Farage-run Reform could boost the party by several points. But to properly understand how that will translate into seats, we have to know where that vote comes from. Will Reform take votes away from both main parties?

The bad news for Rishi Sunak is that May’s local elections suggest any Reform bounce will hurt the Tories more than Labour.

Thanks to figures obtained by the election expert Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, we can compare wards where Reform candidates stood with wards where they did not.

In areas where Reform didn’t stand, the typical Tory vote share was down 1.7 percentage points compared with 2023. But where Reform did put up candidates this year — and didn’t last year — the Tory vote dropped by a far bigger margin of 5.3 points. The Labour vote share, by contrast, barely fell at all.

This suggests a significant chunk of Reform’s support is coming at the expense of would-be Conservative voters. And it makes sense when we look at who Reform’s potential voters are.

In Britain, support for Reform — just like support for Brexit during the referendum — tends to increase with age, just as support for the Conservatives does. There is far less overlap with Labour’s younger support base.

Since 2016, the Conservative Party won support by swallowing the anti-EU base, which worked to the party’s advantage in 2019. Now, though, a resurgent Farage threatens to split those voters again. “The current Labour coalition is much more Reform-proof than the Conservative coalition,” says Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

Another way of framing the problem for Sunak is how much more popular Farage is than him. Among 2019 Tory voters, 50 per cent have a favourable view of Nigel Farage, while just 41 per cent have a positive view of Sunak himself.

What, then, would a Reform bounce do to parliament?

The latest YouGov MRP poll of 50,000 voters, published on Monday, puts Reform in second place in 27 constituencies. Eleven of these seats are in Yorkshire, including Barnsley South and Doncaster North. With Labour so far ahead, it is not close to winning in any of them.

However, the distribution of votes suggests even a slight swing to Reform could have a big impact on the scale of Tory losses. If we assume that Reform takes two votes from the Conservatives to every one vote from Labour, then a modest five-point Farage bounce reduces the Conservatives from 140 seats to 118. Labour, despite losing voters, would actually gain eight seats, putting it on 430.

Yet things could get worse. If we assume that Reform takes virtually all its support from people who currently say they would vote Tory, then a four point Reform bounce would reduce the Tories to 95 seats and a five point boost to Reform would leave the Tories with just 78 seats. Indeed, a seven-point increase in Reform’s vote, at the expense of the Conservatives, would knock the Tories back to being the third-largest party in parliament.

When support is low, and your voter base is split, first past the post can be a cruel system. And for all of the damage they inflict on the Conservative Party, it would still take a massive national swing for Reform to actually pick up any seats in parliament at all.

Of course, even megapolls are not very good at predicting local winners. People in different areas behave differently; separate polling of the constituency of Clacton done earlier this year suggests Farage would probably win the seat if he contested it.

But one party is set to do exceptionally well from any potential Farage bounce: the Liberal Democrats.

The party may be running at about 10 per cent of the national vote share, even less than Nigel Farage’s party and below what it achieved in 2019. Yet because it is now a close second in several seats in the south of England, a modest swing to Reform could result in up to a dozen extra seats.

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Pollster John Curtice lists six types of voter at the general election – which are you?

There will be six different types of voter at the forthcoming general election, according to new analysis by a leading pollster.

The National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) has identified six distinct categories of UK voter, based on responses to 12 questions put to the public.

Joe Middleton www.independent.co.uk 

The groups have shared characteristics, such as gender or social class, and align on key political issues such as the economy or immigration.

The underlying data is taken from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, the latest iteration of which will be released in full next week.

Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: “Much of the commentary on the election focuses on questions of performance. But elections are also influenced by voters’ values and their perceptions of politics and politicians.

“The electorate is not just divided between ‘left’ and ‘right’, but also between ‘liberals’ and ‘authoritarians’, while many people sit in the middle and are not especially interested in politics. This poses particular challenges for the two main parties, who will have to reach out to voters well beyond their own ‘comfort zones’ to succeed.”

Which type of voter are you?

Middle Britons (26%)

Middle Britons make up the largest group of voters, comprising more than a quarter of the electorate (26 per cent). They are mostly in the middle ground across political issues and are closest to a “typical” voter, with no clear political affiliation. They are hard for politicians to win over, and not that likely to vote.

Well-Off Traditionalists (12%)

Highly politically engaged and likely to vote, many Well-Off Traditionalists live in the rural South East. This group holds socially conservative views that often align with Conservative policies. They make up 12 per cent of the electorate.

Apolitical Centrists (17%)

The least politically engaged group is generally on the right on economic issues but more centrist on social issues. The Apolitical Centrists are relatively young and on low incomes. Many in this group will likely not vote, but those that do will probably choose either Conservative or Labour. They comprise 17 per cent of the electorate.

Left-Behind Patriots (15%)

This group mostly voted for Brexit and would consider themselves patriotic. They are opposed to economic inequality, but are conservative in their social outlook. The Left-Behind Patriots have no strong allegiance to any party, but are more likely than others to support Reform UK. They make up 15 per cent of the electorate.

Urban Progressives (16%)

Typically university-educated professionals, Urban Progressives lean strongly to the left on economic issues and in a liberal direction on social ones. This group is likely to support Labour or the Greens, and its members, who account for 16 per cent of the electorate, are highly likely to vote.

Soft-Left Liberals (14%)

This group is university-educated, politically engaged, and liberal on social issues, but more centrist on the economy. Soft-Left Liberals are likely to vote Labour, Green, or Lib Dem. They make up 14 per cent of the electorate.

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Controversial Exeter traffic trial axed

‘This is a sensible solution. It is time for healing’

Exeter’s controversial Active Streets traffic experiment has been scrapped.

Guy Henderson – Local Democracy Reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Some of the regulations stopping traffic getting through parts of the city will be suspended straight away. Others will stay in place until the school summer holidays.

Cllr Rob Hannaford (Ind, Exwick and St Thomas) said the phased approach was a ‘fudge’ but Cllr Phil Bialyk (Lab, Exwick) said lessons had been learned and a compromise could be made.

“I think this is a sensible solution,” he said. “It is time for healing.”

A boisterous public gallery at County Hall heard arguments for and against the Low Traffic Neighbourhoods trial, which has seen restrictions placed on some roads in the Heavitree and Whipton areas since August last year, stopping through-traffic in a bid to cut pollution and make the roads safer.

A hybrid committee made up of Devon County councillors and members of Exeter City Council voted to end the trial early amid huge public protests.

Heavitree estate agent Lyn Burgoyne said her business had been badly hit ‘almost overnight’ when the Active Streets Trial began, but climate scientist Professor Richard Betts of Exeter University said council reports advising the scrapping of the scheme were based on ‘poor quality analysis’.

Members of the city’s highways and traffic orders committee (HATOC) heard arguments for and against the experiment.

Objectors say the trial scheme merely moved congestion and pollution elsewhere, and roads on the fringes of the trial area are experiencing jams and delays.

More than eighty per cent of more than 24,000 people who responded to consultations came out against the scheme.

A report to the committee recommended stopping all the experimental traffic regulation orders as soon as possible.

But members agreed an amendment that the Hamlin Lane, Whipton Lane and Vaughan Road closures should be suspended within weeks. St Marks Avenue and Ladysmith Road will wait until schools have closed for summer at the end of next month.

Wooden planters in the road will stay in place to slow traffic, and discussions will be held with schools and community groups to discuss the way forward.

Chairman Carol Whitton (Lab, St Davids and Haven Banks) proposed the amendment and said lessons must be learned from the trial. “It is not for politicians to inflict harm on the most vulnerable in our society,” she said,

Cllr Lucy Haigh (Ind, Heavitree) was elected to the city council last month after campaigning against the project. She said: “I and many thousands of others believe this experiment is failing in many areas and should be suspended.”

Cllr Peter Holland (Con, St Loyes) told members: “This is a moment in time when you can make a difference for thousands of people.” And Cllr Alison Sheridan (Con, St Loyes) added: “‘To right this terrible wrong, action must be taken’

But Cllr Tess Read (Green, St Davids) urged: “If not this scheme, then what? That’s what we need to explore.”

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Parasite scandal water firm tried to hide its sewage data

South West Water withheld sewage data to avoid political attention

The water company behind a recent parasite outbreak in drinking water tried to hide sewage data to avoid “political attention”.

Adam Vaughan www.thetimes.co.uk

South West Water, whose chief executive was called to parliament over the Cryptosporidium outbreak, repeatedly refused to divulge information to The Times on sewage discharges that could reveal illegal dumping into rivers and seas on dry days.

Raw sewage releases are allowed during heavy rain, with spills on dry days considered risky for swimmers and more harmful to the environment.

The company told the UK’s data watchdog that it wanted to withhold the stop and start times of sewage spills because it would allow third parties to analyse the data. “These analyses may not be accurate and could in turn cause undue media and/or political attention,” it told the Information Commissioner’s Office.

South West Water feared that attention would result in pressure being put on the Environment Agency and Ofwat, the regulator, which are investigating its possible illegal practices. The water firm, which wants to raise household water bills by 20 per cent by 2030, warned of an “adverse effect on the course of justice”.

Susan Davy, its chief executive, was asked by the environment, food and rural affairs committee to a hearing after residents in Devon were told to boil water because of the parasite. The hearing was due to take place this week but was cancelled because of the announcement of the general election.

South West Water is one of six firms that have been formally ordered by the commissioner’s office to release pollution data, enabling scrutiny of whether it is discharging sewage when it is not raining.

Northumbrian Water, another one of the six, made a similar objection to its figures being made public. “The data could become the subject of significant media or political attention and a public conversation of this kind could result in pressure being applied, directly or indirectly, to the independent investigators,” it said.

The regulators are looking into whether several water companies have breached permits for handling sewage at their wastewater treatment works. An initial assessment indicated “widespread and serious” non-compliance by not treating enough sewage before releasing it into rivers and seas. Water firms could face financial penalties when the 30-month investigation reports its findings.

The Times was repeatedly rebuffed by the six water companies, including Yorkshire Water. It said the stop-start times of its spills, which could be cross-referenced with weather data to find potential evidence of illegal discharges on dry days, could lead to inaccurate analyses. It also suggested that releasing the information could “lead to pressure being applied to the investigations being conducted”.

Another of the companies, Anglian Water, argued that the data could “prejudice the conduct of fair trial”. It told the ICO: “It is our understanding that journalists … will attempt to ‘marry up’ spill data with weather data in order to reach conclusions regarding the occurrence of pollution events.”

Pollution of the UK’s waterways and coastlines has emerged as a key environmental issue of the election campaign. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, cited sewage as an example of Tory “chaos” after the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, called an election, while the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, highlighted sewage dumping in Windermere.

On Sunday the Liberal Democrats said their manifesto would include plans for “blue flag rivers”, a protected status to help swimmers and wildlife. The election has already delayed a decision by Ofwat on how much water firms can increase bills over the next five years to pay for new infrastructure, with the announcement pushed back to July 11.

“Water firms are trying to avoid scrutiny by withholding vital information on sewage spills. It is time we got tough on these polluting and profiteering companies,” Tim Farron, the environment spokesman for the Lib Dems, said.

Last week the government announced it would no longer accept applications for new bathing waters until 2025, which is a disappointment to swimming groups. The Times’s Clean It Up campaign has been calling for hundreds of new bathing waters on rivers by the end of the decade to prompt an improvement in water quality.

The Times is demanding faster action to improve the country’s waterways. Find out more about the Clean It Up campaign

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UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

Britain’s next government will need to fill a shortfall of up to £33bn in the public finances unless it is prepared to push through a fresh round of severe austerity measures, a thinktank has warned.

Larry Elliott www.theguardian.com 

The Resolution Foundation said the debate between Labour and the Conservatives over the funding of specific pledges was “detached from reality”, with election promises based on cuts that would be hard to deliver.

The thinktank said both the main parties were committed to reducing debt as a share of national income within five years but higher interest payments on debts, slower-than-expected productivity growth and the £10bn cost of compensation for the infected blood scandal would make that more difficult.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s tax and spending watchdog, has estimated that the government is on course to meet its debt-to-GDP target with just £9bn to spare, but the Resolution Foundation said the winning party in the general election would face the choice of raising taxes or cutting spending to meet its debt target.

The thinktank said if the next government stuck to current spending plans the size of the deficit was likely to be about £12bn, but if it chose to spare prisons, the police and local government from fresh cuts, it could be as big as £33bn. In its annual health check on the UK economy last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a £30bn post-election hole.

James Smith, the Resolution Foundation’s research director, said: “The state of the public finances has dominated the election campaign so far, with the inevitable arguments over how each spending pledge is funded. But this narrow focus risks distracting the electorate from the bigger question of how each party would manage the uncertainties facing the public finances.

“This question is crucial, as whoever wins the election could be confronting a fiscal hole of £12bn, if today’s uncertainties turn into bad news after the election. And if the next government wants to avoid a fresh round of austerity, that black hole could rise to over £33bn.”

The budgets for NHS England, education, defence and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office are ringfenced, but this would result in inflation-adjusted, per-person spending cuts to unprotected departments – such as justice, the Home Office and local government – of 13% between 2024-25 and 2028-29. Cuts on this scale – equivalent to £19bn – would amount to repeating nearly three-quarters of the cuts made during the 2010-2015 parliament.

“Delivering these cuts in the face of already crumbling public services and the public desire for more, not less, spending on public services would likely prove very challenging,” the Resolution Foundation said.

While the stated aim of both parties was to get debt falling, the next government could be on course to miss this target by more than £30bn. History and politics had left the fiscal debate “detached from this reality”, it added.