The “Prof” (for that is what he is) takes another look at who is best placed to defeat the Tories in Exmouth & Exeter East.

“Let’s look at the fundamentals. The Lib Dems, whose vote Claire Wright effectively took over in 2015, 2017 and 2019, had always been the challengers in the area. The Lib Dems were far ahead of Labour in the local elections in 2023. Claire herself is backing Paul Arnott, the Lib Dem candidate, this time. The one MRP projection which we know takes these factors into account, Electoral Calculus, tips Paul to run the Tories very close, as does the Financial Times. The bookies have him a narrow favourite with Labour as also-rans.“

‘PROJECTED TORY WIN’ says tactical voting site, StoptheTories.vote, for Exmouth & Exeter East (EEE).

Although Simon Jupp only got 50 per cent of the vote last time, leading him to jump ship to what he thought was the safety ground of Honiton & Sidmouth (where the Tories had 60 per cent), it now looks as though his successor could cling on – while Richard Foord blocks Jupp in his new seat.

‘TACTICAL VOTE UNCLEAR. Data is mixed on best progressive party’, says StoptheTories.vote about EEE. ‘VOTE LABOUR OR LIB DEM’. The voters in this constituency are the victims of the new ‘MRPs’, which offer projections of local results based on a national model of how voters with particular social backgrounds might behave, given certain baseline political assumptions. The trouble is that these models are NOT polls of actual local voters, and they are NOT designed to provide tactical voting advice. 

Crucially, their baseline assumptions are often flawed. For most of the models, the key assumption is that the opposition parties’ 2019 shares tell us who the main 2024 challenger is likely to be. The problem is that in EEE the main challenger was Claire Wright, the Independent who is not standing this time, who got over 40 per cent. Most of the models simply can’t cope with that, as several pollsters have admitted to me when I’ve questioned them. So they’re left using the 4.5% that Labour got in 2019 to pitch them as the main challenger over the Lib Dems who got 2.8% – although both lost their deposits and these miserable scores tell us nothing about how Claire’s 40 per cent will vote.

Let’s look at the fundamentals. The Lib Dems, whose vote Claire Wright effectively took over in 2015, 2017 and 2019, had always been the challengers in the area. The Lib Dems were far ahead of Labour in the local elections in 2023. Claire herself is backing Paul Arnott, the Lib Dem candidate, this time. The one MRP projection which we know takes these factors into account, Electoral Calculus, tips Paul to run the Tories very close, as does the Financial Times. The bookies have him a narrow favourite with Labour as also-rans.

Yet other tactical sites are using the flawed MRPs to say that Labour are the challengers, Labour are understandably reluctant to look a gift horse in the mouth, and many would-be tactical voters are totally confused. Much damage has already been done, with the opposition vote sufficiently split, perhaps, to let the Tory squeak through. I can only say that, based on my understanding of the fundamentals and the problems of the so-called polls in this case, Paul Arnott remains the best bet to take the seat. He would also be an excellent MP. I hope that voters will give him the chance.