Hilary Mantel on Budleigh Salterton

In today’s Observer Hilary Mantel answers famous admirers’ questions. One from David Hare, playright, asked:

Is Budleigh Salterton as enchanting as it seems to the casual visitor?

To which Hilary replies:

We are enchanting and enchanted. We are blessed by fresh air and sea foam. We have palm trees. We fish by moonlight. We live to the age of Methuselah – check out Fore Street any day. Our tones are clipped or hearty, our clothes quilted and khaki/sludge, but our souls are wearing silk. We are not at all smug. And it is just not true that we have a sign that says: “Budleigh welcomes you: no riff-raff.”

Hilary Mantel

No coronavirus lockdown for top Tory constituencies

Wealthy areas, including the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary seat, are avoiding lockdown despite having higher Covid-19 rates than poorer areas that are subject to restrictions, according to leaked emails between health officials.

Gabriel Pogrund and Tom Calver www.thetimes.co.uk

The government is under growing pressure to explain why it has placed large parts of the north and Midlands under local lockdowns while overlooking areas with similar infection rates. Asked why the northwest is “treated differently” from areas such as his own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Boris Johnson said on Friday: “I appreciate … people want to see an iron consistency applied across the whole country.”

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, decides which areas to place in lockdown during weekly “gold” meetings with advisers. Yesterday, 50 councils were subject to measures such as bans on household mixing. However, there is no official Covid-19 infection rate that triggers a local lockdown.

On Thursday, Professor Dominic Harrison, the director of public health for Blackburn with Darwen, the largest borough in the wider Lancashire area, wrote to Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) officials, saying the measures were “avoidably increasing economic inequality”. He said: “There is now a different level of central control applied across local authorities, with some of the more economically challenged boroughs being placed into more restrictive control measures at an earlier point in their … case rate trajectory.

“This has the effect of exacerbating the economic inequality impacts of the virus in those areas. We urgently need consistency in the national strategy if the control system itself is not to add to inequality, giving an economic ‘double whammy’ to more challenged areas.”

His comments come amid a row between ministers and mayors over lockdown policy. Andy Preston, the Middlesbrough mayor, last week said he did “not accept” the latest measures and said local leaders could effectively “preserve jobs and wellbeing”. He has since U-turned.

Blackburn with Darwen is one of Britain’s poorest boroughs. Its Covid rate peaked at 212 weekly cases per 100,000 people. When officials first imposed lockdowns in the area in August, they intervened in wards where the weekly rate exceeded 60 new cases per 100,000. A similar benchmark has been used elsewhere.

However, Harrison produced figures last week to suggest that wealthier areas with similar or higher rates were avoiding lockdown. Richmondshire in North Yorkshire, which includes Sunak’s constituency and is one of the least deprived areas in Britain, has 73 new cases for every 100,000 people. Newark and Sherwood, represented by Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, and Mark Spencer, the chief whip, stands at 84. Both areas have avoided lockdown.

In contrast, Wolverhampton, another poorer area, has 56 cases per 100,000 yet remains in lockdown. Chorley, at 72, Lancaster, at 66, and Oadby and Wigston, at 63, are also subject to lockdowns.

Several “red wall” seats that voted Tory at the last election have avoided lockdown, including Barrow-in-Furness (112) , Darlington (110) and Wakefield (73). Of all areas where infections exceed 70 but lockdown has been avoided, the majority are represented by Tory MPs.

Steve Reed, shadow housing secretary, said: “People living in the north and Midlands will be asking why they’re having to face restrictions when other parts of the country that have seen infections rise are not.” The DHSC said the incidence rate was only one criterion considered in deciding on lockdowns.

NO LOCKDOWN

Sheffield 110 cases per 100,000

Barrow-in-Furness 112

Darlington 110

Craven 109

Newark and Sherwood 84

IN LOCKDOWN

Chorley 73 cases per 100,000

Wyre 71

Lancaster 66

Oadby and Wigston 63

Wolverhampton 56

Coronavirus: can we shut the door on one fear?

Coronavirus: can I be infected by touching surfaces?

Tony Allen-Mills and Andrew Gregory www.thetimes.co.uk

The surprises keep on coming in the fight against the coronavirus. One of the most frightening things the world thought it knew about Covid-19 is turning out to be not very scary at all. New research into the infectious potential of contaminated surfaces has forced a downgrading of early concerns that people might fall ill by touching a door knob or a light switch. “The surface issue has essentially gone away,” a leading American specialist in infectious diseases declared.

Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told the US science website Nautilus that there had been “a lot of fear” at the beginning of the pandemic about transmission of the virus if people touched their faces after contact with metal, plastic or other contaminated surfaces, collectively known to scientists as fomites.

Yet the evidence suggests that the virus on most surfaces is not strong enough to make people ill. “It’s not through surfaces,” she added. “It’s from being close to someone spewing virus from their nose and mouth, without in most cases knowing they are doing so.”

Her remarks followed recent research by Emanuel Goldman, a US microbiologist, who examined several well-publicised laboratory studies that had found traces of the coronavirus lingering on surfaces for hours and in some cases for days.

Hospitals, corporations and public agencies have collectively spent billions of pounds on “deep cleaning” decontamination routines that are estimated to have cost the hotel industry alone at least £7bn.

Yet Goldman concluded that tests in laboratories bore “little resemblance to real-life scenarios”. He found that the traces involved were not “viably” infectious and described the risk of transmission through inanimate surfaces as “very small”.

In a comment to The Lancet, Italian researchers reported that their attempts to grow the virus from samples recovered from surfaces in a coronavirus hospital ward in Pavia, northern Italy, had proved unsuccessful. “Our findings … would support Goldman’s point that the transmission through inanimate surfaces is less frequent than hitherto recognised,” the researchers concluded.

Most doctors still recommend regular handwashing as a sensible precaution, but it may no longer be necessary to sing Happy Birthday twice, as the World Health Organisation originally recommended.

Why are young women targets now?

The disease that ravaged care homes and turned the elderly into hermits for much of the spring has taken aim at different targets this autumn. Public Health England’s most recent statistics show that the 20-29 age group has had the most new cases since the end of June, followed closely by the 30-39 age group. In both those groups, more women are being infected than men.

In a significant reversal of the trend earlier this year, the number of women admitted to hospital aged 20-40 has been increasing faster than for men in that age range. It was a symbol of the shifting menace of the virus that the health crisis enveloping the White House appears to have begun after Hope Hicks, 31, one of Donald Trump’s top advisers, tested positive last week.

The elderly remain overwhelmingly the most vulnerable to serious disease and risk of death, and there have long been concerns about the virus’s disproportionate impact on black and minority ethnic Britons from underprivileged backgrounds. But scientists are not yet sure why younger women are increasingly at risk.

Is it all about young people partying?

Many experts believe that whatever the economic benefits of reopening restaurants and other social venues and encouraging summer holidays abroad, the resulting surge in social activity has had troubling effects on the transmission of the virus.

“This all fits a picture that, on average, younger, wealthier, white people had more social contacts over the summer,” said Dr Daniel Lawson, a senior lecturer in statistical science at Bristol University.

The latest government survey period “included the relaxation of restrictions in pubs and restaurants … the take-home message is that total numbers of social contacts still need to be limited to control the virus”.

Women have long been known to have immune systems that are more effective than men’s at fighting disease, but the role of gender differences in responses to the coronavirus is still being studied.

Several explanations of varying scientific value have been advanced, from women being more likely to work in crowded indoor locations such as hospitals and restaurants, to younger women tending to socialise and holiday together on a wider scale than men.

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, has blamed a recent surge in outbreaks on “private parties”, and other reports have attributed rising infection rates elsewhere in Europe to a loosening of social distancing restraints encouraged by alcohol-fuelled outings. Having spent much of the summer urging Britons to “eat out to help out”, the government has since imposed a 10pm curfew, which some experts believe will merely make people drink faster and earlier — “leading to more disinhibition and thereby less distancing”, said Professor Susan Michie of University College London.

What else don’t we know?

Only recently have we begun to realise that infection and transmission are just part of the coronavirus challenge. The phenomenon of “long Covid” — illness that will not go away — is believed to be affecting hundreds of thousands of Britons dubbed the “forgotten victims” of the pandemic. Ayesha Sodha, a 36-year-old businesswoman from Edinburgh, used to pole-dance for exercise, but, six months after she contracted the virus, she is still suffering insomnia, fatigue, headaches, brain fog, muscle pain and sensitivity to light. “We don’t know if there really is an end in sight,” Sodha said.

The biggest unknown of all remains the effectiveness of any vaccine. There may be a jab ready by the end of the year, but how long will it take to reach us and how long will it protect us? If the virus has taught us anything, it is that more surprises are in store.

Another 11 Covid cases confirmed in East Devon – with 107 in Exeter

A further 11 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in East Devon in the past week – with the number in Exeter rocketing by 107.

About Author Daniel Clark eastdevonnews.co.uk

The city accounts for 60 per cent of fresh positive results recorded in the Devon County Council area in the past seven days.

Figures published yesterday (Friday, October 3), show a total 381 new Covid-19 cases have been confirmed across Devon and Cornwall in the past week.

This is compared to 365 in the previous seven days.

The data comes from both ‘pillar one’ data, from NHS tests, and ‘pillar two’ data from commercial partners.

Numbers in the Devon County Council area – which does not include Plymouth or Torbay – nearly doubled from 96 to 178.

One-hundred-and-seven of these have been in Exeter.

East Devon’s weekly total of 11 new cases is the same number as the previous seven days.

Plymouth saw a drop from 74 to 36 cases.

Torbay’s cases rose from 18 to 39, with this partially linked to a care home outbreak.

There were eight new cases in Mid Devon, 13 in North Devon, nine in the South Hams, 20 in Teignbridge, five in Torridge, and four in West Devon.

Cases in Cornwall have dropped from 179 to 132.

Exeter ‘clusters’

Five coronavirus ‘clusters’ – of three or more cases – have been identified in Exeter.

These are in the Pennsylvania and University (52 cases), St Leonard’s (four), central (five), St James Park and Hoopern (nine) and Middlemoor and Sowton (seven) areas.

The city’s increase has been linked to a rise in cases among university students.

It is understood that at least 60 households within the city are self-isolating and following public health advice.

There is no evidence at this stage of the virus spreading into the wider community, say public health chiefs.

With demand for tests is rising, the University of Exeter has invited the national Test and Trace scheme to set up a temporary centre on the Streatham campus dedicated to students and staff.

Asked whether there were any discussions around a ‘local lockdown’ for Exeter, a Devon County Council spokesman said: “A decision of a magnitude of a city-wide lockdown would be made at a national level.  At the moment, case numbers are not there.”

East Devon total hits 305

An overall total of 305 Covid-19 cases have now been confirmed in East Devon and 460 in Exeter.

The Plymouth total is 948 cases, Torbay 377, Teignbridge 272, Mid Devon 249, and North Devon 168.

There have been 151 in the South Hams, 87 in West Devon, and 76 in Torridge.

Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have had 1,397 confirmed cases.

‘District areas still low’

Devon’s deputy director for public health Steve Brown said: “The latest numbers show another rise in the number of tests carried out in Devon, and we are hearing fewer reports of delay or having to travel distances to attend a test.

“Overall, the county is still comparably very low down the table for the number of confirmed coronavirus cases.

“We have the immediate increase in cases in Exeter for which there is no evidence of spread within the community, but confirmed cases in our seven other district areas are still low.

“Testing resources in the main are keeping up with demand in Devon, and I ask anyone who is showing symptoms – the high temperature, new and continuous cough, or change in their sense of taste or smell – to self-isolate immediately and book a test.”

Specimen dates

The Covid-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and sending these to laboratories around the UK to be tested. If positive, this is a referred to as a lab-confirmed case.

Confirmed positive cases are matched to Office for National Statistics geographical area codes using the home postcode of the person tested.

Of the 381 new cases confirmed in Devon and Cornwall, 280 have a specimen date between September 25 and October 1.

Ten of these were in East Devon and 72 in Exeter.

The majority of the other 101 cases occurred between September 21 and 24, although some date back to the start of the month.

Tory Cabinet League Table. The Prime Minister falls into negative territory.

As the Tory party conference begins. Good news for the Prime Minister from party members.

Their verdict on Boris Johnson: not quite as useless as Gavin Williamson! – Owl

www.conservativehome.com 

  • It’s not unprecedented for a Conservative Prime Minister to fall into negative territory in our monthly Cabinet League Table.  In April last year, Theresa May set a new record of scoring the lowest rating it has ever recorded – at -74. Compared to that, Boris Johnson’s -10.3 this month looks tame.
  • Nonetheless, it’s a rotten springboard from which to vault into Party Conference as it begins today.  As we wrote yesterday, it reflects weariness with curbs, frustration with what seem to be fluctuating and arbitrary rules, a sense that Ministers at the top of Government are divided – and a certain frustration with the Prime Minister himself.
  • Liz Truss up to second in the table, from 62 per cent to 70 per cent.  Dominic Raab and Michael Gove’s scores are both down but, with Steve Barclay and Truss, they are the only Cabinet Ministers to clear 50 per cent.  As recently as last December, the entire Cabinet was in the black, with 18 of its members above that 50 per cent rating.
  • Matt Hancock joins Gavin Williamson, Robert Jenrick and Johnson in negative territory. Amanda Milling clambers out of it (just about).  On a happier note, Douglas Ross more than doubles his rating from 26 per cent to 61 per cent: his aggression and energy in Scotland are getting noticed.
  • And finally: the Prime Minister has been low, though not nearly by this much, in the table before – shortly before he resigned as Foreign Secretary.  He bounced back then, and could do so again.  Once again, we make the point that this is much the same panel as gave him a 93 per cent rating after the last election.

Planning Applications validated by EDDC week beginning 21 September

100 new engineering jobs at Exeter Airport

A high-tech Irish company is coming to Exeter to regenerate the aviation industry following the collapse of Flybe earlier this year.

www.radioexe.co.uk

Dublin Aerospace Group is creating Exeter Aerospace at the former Flybe Maintenance Services area at Exeter Airport.

Conor McCarthy, chairman and CEO of Dublin Aerospace Group said: “We are thrilled to have made Exeter the home of our first UK MRO (Maintenance Repair and Overhaul) centre. The availability of the hangars and workshops there, combined with a phenomenal pool of local aviation and engineering talent, makes this a hugely attractive location for us.”

Dublin Aerospace’s facility in Dublin specialises in Boeing 737, Airbus A320, and A330 families. Exeter Aerospace will complement this range by specialising in the Embraer 170/190 Regional Jets, Bombardier Dash 8/Q400, and ATR 72 Turboprop families in Exeter.

“Already, we have acquired all of the tooling and equipment we require for these aircraft types and have taken possession of the modern and purpose-built Exeter Hangars and Workshops. We are now in the process of applying for UK CAA and EASA (EU Aviation Safety Authority) approvals for Exeter Aerospace and have already commenced hiring our initial group of aerospace engineers and technicians,” said McCarthy.

In time Exeter Aerospace plans six aircraft overhaul bays as well as support shops and test facilities. The company is now recruiting to fill 100 roles and over the next three to four years wants to have over 250 aviation professionals working at Exeter Aerospace. It will work with Exeter College on apprenticeships too.