Boris Johnson’s adviser on ethical standards has questioned whether the prime minister should maintain sole responsibility for the ministerial code days after an outcry over the decision not to sack Priti Patel for bullying staff.

Rajeev Syal www.theguardian.com 

Jonathan Evans, the chair of the committee on standards in public life, said the PM having sole discretion over both launching investigations and deciding to punish an errant minister risked looking like “marking your own homework”.

His remarks come after Johnson was accused of double standards after telling ministers there was “no place for bullying” in the wake of a damning report into the behaviour of the home secretary.

Johnson refused to sack Patel on Friday despite an inquiry by his adviser Sir Alex Allan that concluded she had broken the ministerial code.

The prime minister has sole power both to trigger investigations into wrongdoing by ministers, and to decide on what action, if any, to take.

Johnson’s decision not to sack Patel set a new precedent because previous ministers who have been found to have broken the code have been sacked or resigned from office.

Lord Evans, a former head of MI5, told parliament’s standards committee he was to take evidence on whether to hand both the powers to an independent body similar to those that have been introduced in parliament.

“The triggering of an investigation rests solely with the prime minister. The decision on what action to take about that also rests entirely with the prime minister.

“In the same way that adjudicating those same issues in the Commons or the Lords looks as though you are marking your own homework, the same concerns could be expressed about the way the ministerial code works,” he said.

“There is a problem here … the ministerial code does not have the same independent process which supports the Commons’ code [of conduct] and I think that is an issue which has been overtaken.

“Increasingly – we have seen it in the Commons, we have seen it in the Lords and we have seen it elsewhere – an independent element has been introduced. So there is a kind of mismatch between the expectations of what you would deliver from the Commons and what you get from the ministerial code.

“So I think there’s a question to be asked about whether there should be more independence, whether the investigative element should be triggered independently, potentially and then there’s the separate but parallel issue of what the response to the actual investigation should be.”

Lord Evans said the public would be confused by the fact that allegations of bullying by MPs are investigated by an independent panel, but allegations of bullying by ministers are not.

“If bullying is treated in one particular way for MPs in their parliamentary role then why would you want to handle it differently in their ministerial role?”

He also suggested there should be more options for punishing ministers who break the code, rather than simply whether or not to sack them.

“At the moment it’s rather a binary thing, either you get virtually nothing, really, or you have to resign,” he said.

On Friday, Johnson refused to sack Patel after Allan’s inquiry concluded she had broken the ministerial code following bullying allegations across three government departments.

Allan, the prime minister’s adviser on ministerial standards, resigned from his post after Johnson contradicted his report by vigorously defending the home secretary and keeping her in her role.

One of the justifications Johnson used for defending Patel was the element of Allan’s report that said she had been unaware of the impact of her behaviour because no Home Office official had complained about her.

Sources have said, however, that Allan sought to interview the former top Home Office civil servant Sir Philip Rutnam, who resigned after clashing with Patel, but government officials blocked him.

Offering what she described as an “unreserved, fulsome apology”, Patel has seized on Allan’s finding that she had received no feedback on the impact of her behaviour.

Rutnam, who is suing Patel for wrongful dismissal under whistleblowing laws, issued a statement on Friday that said she was advised not to shout and swear at staff the month after her appointment in 2019, and that he had told her to treat staff with respect “on further occasions”.

An £8million lifeline could be on the way for Exeter Airport after the combination of the collapse of Flybe and the coronavirus pandemic had placed its future in doubt.

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

Passenger numbers are down 90 per cent year-on-year and without some financial support, the Airport could have faced the worst case scenario of closure.

East Devon councillors at the end of September had agreed to a further deferral of £180,000 of business rate relief and forward-funding the Airport’s share of the Long Lane enhancement scheme to the tune of nearly £750,000.

But now, regional airports, including Exeter Airport, will be able to apply for dedicated financial support, which will provide business rates relief and cover fixed costs up to £8million per airport.

The scheme will open for applications in January and follows calls by East Devon MP Simon Jupp to help secure financial support to protect the future of Exeter Airport.

Mr Jupp said: “I warmly welcome the decision by Government to provide business rates relief for regional airports.

“I raised my concerns with the Prime Minister and Chancellor after passenger numbers at Exeter Airport dropped by 95 per cent and they recognised the need to support our airport.

“Together with the new testing regime, the government is providing much needed support to help protect jobs and connectivity provided by Exeter Airport.”

The announcement comes as the Government unveils a new testing strategy to reduce the self-isolation period by at least a week.

From December 15, passengers arriving into England from countries not featured on the Government’s travel corridor list will have the option to pay for a test after five days of self-isolation, with a negative result releasing them from the need to isolate.

A spokesman for Exeter Airport, said: “We are pleased the Government has listened to our calls and the campaign led by East Devon MP Simon Jupp to secure business rates relief for airports.

“The measures announced today will provide much-needed support and we will continue to lobby hard and work with Government on what other steps can be taken to safeguard the UK’s regional airports.”

London and the south-east have benefited disproportionately from the installation of new electric car charge points in the last year, amid a push to be ready the UK for the ban on internal combustion engine cars in 2030.

Time to insist that one charging point per XX houses in new developments is the norm? – Owl

Jasper Jolly www.theguardian.com 

The two regions together received 45% of new charger capacity in the year to October, well in excess of their 27% share of the population, according to a Guardian analysis of Zap Map data which shows charging points across the UK published by the Department for Transport.

Every other region received a lower proportion of new charge points installed during the year to October than their population would suggest.

Public car-charging infrastructure was a key part of Boris Johnson’s plans for a “green industrial revolution” published last week. Johnson’s 10-point plan included £1.3bn of investment in car charging, although only £800m of that was new spending. Further details are expected to be outlined in the chancellor’s one-year spending review this week.

The 2030 ban means that all new car buyers across the UK within a decade will need easy access to charging infrastructure, but the current public charging network is already skewed towards London in particular.

There are 63 public chargers per 100,000 people in the capital, more than double the average of the rest of the UK, according to the data compiled by Zap Map. Northern Ireland had the lowest, with only 16.8 per 100,000 people – although other regions with a lower proportion of urban residents may be able to depend more on charging at home in off-street parking spaces.

Matt Western, the Labour MP who chairs a parliamentary group on electric vehicles, said the government needed to address regional disparities as well as ensuring open access to existing charge points.

“What we need is government incentives to put these charge points in place … to provide the incentive for consumers to follow,” he said.

The total number of publicly accessible chargers last month passed 20,000, but there are still 46 local authority areas with fewer than 10 public charging points per 100,000 residents, demonstrating the scale of the challenge ahead to make the whole country ready for electric cars. The RAC has reported a doubling this year in the number of instances where drivers of electric vehicles have needed assistance after running out of charge, because charge points have been out of service, their home chargers have failed to charge overnight, or drivers have run out of charge before reaching a charge point.

Ben Nelmes, head of policy at thinktank New AutoMotive, said: “The transition to electric cars has the potential to contribute to the government’s levelling-up agenda because electric cars are much cheaper to run. Access to a local and reliable public charging network is essential for the one-third of people who do not have access to off-street parking.

“Public funding for charge points should be spent where it is most needed and will provide most benefit to motorists, but cash-strapped local councils often struggle to get the data they need to bid for charge-point funding from the Department for Transport.”

Analysis commissioned by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the UK industry lobby group, suggested the UK would need to build more than 1.9m public charging points by 2030 – well over 500 per day. The bill is expected to be £16.7bn.

Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said government investment so far was “a step in the right direction” but still “only a fraction of the multi-billion pound investment required”.

“The industry invested £54bn in electrification across Europe last year,” Hawes said. “We need others to step up.”

Even before the 2030 ban was confirmed, the move to electric vehicles had triggered a race by private companies.

Chargemaster, bought by oil company BP in 2018, has the largest UK network. During 2020 it has built 31% more rapid chargers, which are vital for topping up on longer journeys, according to Zap Map. However, rivals such as Germany’s Ubitricity and energy provider EDF’s Pod Point are expanding their overall networks faster. No single provider has more than 13% of the market.

The confirmation of the 2030 ban will prompt an acceleration in investment in chargers, according to Nick Ballamy, managing director of EVC, which is planning to spend £150m to install 100,000 charge points over the next five years.

He said he was optimistic that the barriers could be overcome. “The reason the uptake [of electric cars] has been a lot slower is because the infrastructure is not in place,” he said. “People want to be able to buy their vehicles and know they can charge at their convenience.”

MPs from across Devon are united in their relief that England’s second national lockdown won’t be extended – and all calling for the county to be placed into the lowest tier of restrictions.

[Owl is disappointed that there is no quote from from “Marie Antoinette” Selaine Saxby, MP North Devon, who sounded off about local businesses supporting free school meals and no doubt has strong views on tiers] 

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the Commons on Monday that the three-tiered regional measures will return from December 2 and the lockdown will end, but he added that each tier will be toughened.

Areas will not find out which tier they are in until Thursday and the allocation of tiers will be dependent on a number of factors, including each area’s case numbers, the reproduction rate – or R number – and the current and projected pressure on the NHS locally.

Tier allocations will be reviewed every 14 days, and the regional approach will last until March, and Devon’s MPs feel that the area should be placed in Tier 1.

New coronavirus cases across the county are dropping, and only Cornwall, the Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Dorset, West Berkshire, Cambridgeshire and Central Bedfordshire of upper tier authorities currently have a lower infection rate per 100,000 than Devon’s 106.6.

Devon Coronavirus cases as of November 23

At a lower tier level, Teignbridge has the fourth lowest rate of England’s 315 districts, with West Devon, Mid Devon and the South Hams also in the bottom 15, based on the previous seven days’ of figures.

In terms of people who have died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, Devon currently has the lowest rate per 100,000 population of anywhere in England.

Ben Bradshaw, the Labour MP for Exeter, said that it was hoped that the area would be in Tier One, but that the Government must publish the scientific basis for the restrictions in the various tiers, if it wants to regain public trust and compliance with the rules.

He said: “Of course, the hope must be that Exeter and Devon are in Tier One, but it is essential that the Government publishes a clear set of criteria for each Tier and for moving between them. The last three tier system did not work and the Government refused to implement an earlier circuit breaker, which is what led to the current four week national lockdown.

“The Government must also publish the scientific basis for the restrictions in the various tiers, if it wants to regain public trust and compliance with the rules. It would be awful if, by making the wrong decisions now, the Government has to tighten restrictions again over Christmas and New Year, just when families are looking forward to the chance of getting together.”

Simon Jupp, MP for East Devon, said: “We should welcome the move from national to local restrictions. We must safely re-open businesses forced to close to help protect jobs and our economy. Devon should be in the lowest tier of restrictions to reflect the hard work and significant sacrifices we’ve made to suppress the virus.

“We must safely re-open businesses forced to close to help protect jobs and our economy. And, as an example, I spoke this week in Parliament about gyms and leisure centres being closed for this period. Can we be certain that closing them to limit coronavirus transmission is worth it on balance? Hundreds of East Devon residents contacted me saying their closure is physically and mentally detrimental to their wellbeing.

“Behind all the charts and graphs, there’s a very real social side to lockdown that no amount of financial supports schemes – however welcome – can replicate. And if we are to consider tighter restrictions again, the government must publish stronger evidence that they protect more lives than they harm.”

Mel Stride, the Conservative MP for Central Devon, said: “Tiering is the right way to go as it will help match the measures taken with the level of threat from the virus. My constituency has been generally highly compliant with lockdown rules and I am hopeful that we might be in Tier One.”

Neil Parish, the Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, said that he hoped and wanted the region to be placed in the lower tier of restrictions, and that the vaccine news was light at the end of the tunnel.

He said: “On Thursday, of course I want us to be in the lowest possible tier of restrictions, because it means we are doing well at combating the virus here in the West Country.

“The news today about the Oxford vaccine is more light at the end of the tunnel, increasing the chances that we can get out of coronavirus restrictions sooner. I am glad we are returning, next week, to a local tiered approach, but the virus hasn’t gone away yet and we all need to be vigilant this winter.

“I want our businesses to be open and thriving and for people to have safe working and social environments to enjoy. However, even if we are in a higher tier than before, I am particularly pleased to see that places of worship will be open across all tiers, as will recreational sports, and retail too. This is a welcome change – and I think people can look forward to safer, brighter Christmas, after the tough month we have all endured.”

Sir Gary Streeter, MP for South West Devon, agreed that the region should be placed in Tier 1 from next week.

He said: “I am in regular contact with all Plymouth and Devon Conservative MPs and we all agree that the South West should be placed in Tier 1 and we are pressing hard for this. The South West for this purpose includes Bristol which still has significant transmission of the virus and accordingly, we are asking for Devon and Cornwall to be treated as a separate sub-region for this purpose, if necessary. We will find out tomorrow or Thursday whether we have been successful.”

Anthony Mangnall, the Conservative MP for Totnes, whose constituency straddles both Devon and Torbay, said that he would be supported the tiered system, provided the measures are based on accurate information and divided in the correct manner, with him pushing for his area to be in Tier One.

He said: “We have a vaccine and the end of the lockdown is in sight, and now it is about making sure that we are in the lowest tier. I do think it is very important that people recognise, including those in Whitehall, the difference between Bristol and the surrounding areas, and the South West around Plymouth, Devon and Torbay, and our numbers are significantly lower here.

“It is very important that when we come to a tiering system, we don’t get lumped in with places like Bristol as it doesn’t equate.

“I have been perfectly clear, I will not vote for another lockdown. I will support the tier measures, provided they are based on accurate information and divided in the correct manner, and that must be done in a way that reflects what is going on in the ground.

“Now that we have a vaccine, that’s a cause for great celebration but to maintain our personal level of responsibility and keep our own personal preventative measures that we have done so well in the South West.”

Torbay’s infection rates are slightly higher –currently 160 per 100,000, although have also been falling quite sharply, and Kevin Foster, the Conservative MP for Torbay, said: “I welcome the statement today and the news we will exit national restrictions as promised on December 2.”

He added: “This has been possible thanks to the hard work of our NHS and Social Care teams, plus the many residents who have done their bit by sticking to the rules and following the guidance.

“It will be especially welcome to see church services return and many retail businesses re-open in time for Christmas, with the news about a possible vaccination programme giving a real sense of light at the end of the covid-19 tunnel.

“In terms of the next steps in our Bay, it is vital these are guided by the advice of our local public health teams, yet I hope we will soon have confirmation many hospitality businesses will be able to re-open under the tiered system, given we are very unlikely to be placed in the highest tier.”

Newton Abbot MP, Anne Marie Morris, who voted against the second lockdown, said she sincerely hoped that next Wednesday would be the end of lockdowns forever, but her fear is that most of the country will be in tier two or three with very few in tier one.

She added: “In Tier 2 that means no social gathering at home and in tier three no social gathering outside except in public places. With Devon MPs I am fighting for a place in Tier one.

“This lockdown has seen small, family-run, independent businesses closed and pretty much sacrificed, whilst the major out-of-town supermarkets have been able to remain open and make a fortune selling non-essential items.

“It is welcome that collective worship, weddings and outdoor sports can resume, subject to social distancing and that people will no longer be limited to seeing only one other person in outdoor public spaces, with the rule of 6 now applying as it did in the previous set of tiers.

“But being placed in Tier 2 would have a hugely damaging impact on our hospitality sector, with pubs and bars being forced to close unless operating as restaurants. Much like the 10pm curfew, which has quite rightly been extended to 11pm, the Government needs to publish the evidence to show that transmission of the disease in a wet-led pub is any different to that in a restaurant, church, cinema or any other enclosed space.”

She added: “I am enormously concerned with the talk of us having to lockdown in January in order to ‘pay’ for those 4 or 5 days over Christmas. This is utter madness. January is already a miserable time of the year for individuals and businesses, and to lock us all down again would have an even more significant impact not just on the economy but on mental health, loneliness and other non-Covid related health conditions.”

And on whether she will vote for the tiered system, she added that unless the evidence for it comes forward, she would be voted against any further restrictions.

Members of the public complete a test swab during a lateral flow Covid test at Rhydycar leisure centre in Merthyr Tydfil, where mass coronavirus testing begins following a two-week “firebreak” lockdown.

She said: “Serious damage has already been caused by previous lockdowns and restrictions and I simply will not vote for measures that cause further damage to the health and wellbeing (physical and economic) of our community. A tiered system will have such a huge impact on people’s lives, their health and their businesses, and the Government needs to prove that these measures are going to save more lives than they cost.

“Therefore, they need to produce the risk assessment for these measures and prove beyond doubt that they have an overall benefit. So far, that evidence and the necessary assessments have not been forthcoming, and, therefore, I will be voting against the measures. We need long term planning and an exit strategy, not short term, knee-jerk reactions.”

Subject to approval by MPs, the new tier system will take effect from 12.01am on Wednesday, December 2. Areas will find out which tier they are to be placed in on Thursday, before a vote on the new measures will take place, likely to be on Monday.

WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES?

All tiers:

• The tiers will have a uniform set of rules, there will be no negotiations by different regions.
• Everyone should work from home if they can.
• Shops and personal care services can open.
• Early years settings, schools, colleges and universities remain open.
• Registered childcare, other supervised activities for children and childcare bubbles allowed.
• Indoor leisure – gyms and swimming – can open.
• Elite sport, under-18 sport and disabled sport can continue.
• Police will get new powers to close down premises breaking the rules.

Tier 1:

• Households can mix inside and outside, but the rule of six applies.
• Bars, pubs and restaurants must be table service only, last orders at 10pm, closing by 11pm.
• Entertainment can reopen.
• Avoid travel into Tier 3 areas.
• Overnight stays permitted with your household/bubble, or up to six people from different households.
• All accommodation can reopen.
• Places of worship can reopen but more than six people from different households cannot interact.
• Weddings, civil partnerships and wakes can have 15 guests.
• Funerals can have 30 guests.
• Exercise classes and organised adult sport can take place outdoors, but rule of six indoors.
• Elite sporting events, live performances and large business events can take place with 50% capacity, or 4,000 people outdoors/1,000 indoors (whichever is lower) – social distancing applies.

Tier 2:

• No mixing of households indoors apart from support bubbles – rule of six outdoors.
• Pubs and bars must close unless operating as restaurants, and hospitality venues can only serve alcohol with substantial meals.
• Last orders at 10pm, close by 11pm.
• Reduce the numbers of journeys made and avoid travel into Tier 3 areas.
• Overnight stays permitted with your household or support bubble.
• Accommodation open.
• Places of worship open but people cannot interact with anyone outside their household or support bubble.
• Weddings, civil partnerships and wakes can have 15 guests.
• Funerals can have 30 guests.
• Exercise classes and organised adult sport can take place outdoors, but not indoors if there is any interaction between different households.
• Elite sporting events, live performances and large business events can take place with 50% capacity, or 2,000 people outdoors/1,000 indoors (whichever is lower) – social distancing applies.

Tier 3:

• No mixing of households indoors or most outdoor places – rule of six in outdoor spaces such as parks and sports courts.
• Hospitality venues closed, except for takeaway, drive-through or delivery.
• Indoor entertainment venues closed.
• Avoid travelling outside the area other than where necessary, including foreign travel.
• No overnight stays outside local area, unless necessary for work, education or similar reasons.
• Accommodation closed (with limited exceptions such as work purposes).
• Places of worship open but people cannot interact with anyone outside their household or support bubble.
• Weddings, civil partnerships and wakes can have 15 guests – but no wedding receptions allowed.
• Funerals can have 30 guests.
• Exercise classes and organised adult sport can take place outdoors, but avoid higher-risk contact activity.
• Group exercise and sports indoors should not take place, unless with household/bubble.
• Elite sporting events, live performances and large business events banned but drive-in events permitted.

How different parts of England rank on Downing Street’s key considerations for the new system of restrictions.

[Not so much a mutant algorithm as through a glass darkly! – Owl]

By Alex Clark and Dominic Gilbert www.telegraph.co.uk

England will return to a tiered system of coronavirus restrictions when the national lockdown ends on December 2. While for some this will mean greater freedoms than they have enjoyed in the past, more areas will face tougher restrictions than under the previous tier regime.

The Government will announce on Thursday which areas will be in Tiers 1, 2 and 3, but has already briefly outlined the factors that will influence its decisions.

Case rates and surges, particularly among the over-60s, as well as pressures on the testing and health systems will all be taken into account by Number 10, which has declined to give any estimate of the thresholds.

Documents released by the Cabinet Office, however, reveal that “broader economic and practical considerations” will also play a part. 

Here is how local areas in England compare on these five key lockdown metrics. 

How cases fared under national lockdown

England’s worst infected areas have seen significant declines in their case rates since the second national lockdown began, the latest data shows, but other previously low-ranking areas have seen cases surge. 

Oldham was one of the worst infected areas just before the new lockdown on November 5, having already been placed in tier three along with the rest of Greater Manchester.

Though case rates have fallen significantly in the two weeks since, they still remain stubbornly high, suggesting a relaxing of rules may not be imminent. 

While rates have fallen in many areas in the North, they have spiked elsewhere, particularly in the South-East.

Swale and Thanet, neighbouring local authorities in West Kent, are among the biggest risers in the past month. Both areas may face the toughest Tier 3 restrictions when Boris Johnson announces the new lockdown map of England. 

Over-60s suffering in hotspots

The case rate among the over-60s – one of the most at-risk groups for Covid infections – will be high on the criteria when the Government sets out its new parameters.

As the graph below shows, East Lindsey, in Lincolnshire, and Corby, in Northamptonshire, are the worst affected in this demographic.

Both areas are seeing significant increases in the general rate of confirmed cases – up by 137.6 in East Lindsey and 66.4 in Corby compared to the previous week of data.

Both local authorities were in Tier 1 before November 5, but now appear to be at high risk of more stringent restrictions. But in a reversal of fortunes, many areas that had been placed into Tier 3 are now seeing week-on-week falls in the rate of confirmed cases.

In particular, Lancaster seems to have fared well on most of the Government’s criteria. Its case rate among the over-60s is currently 241st of 315 English local authorities at 88 per 100,000, and the general case rate has fallen by 91 per 100,000 over the last week.

Is the testing system coping?

Number 10 will also be looking at how well its testing system is coping in different parts of the country, guided by one key metric in particular – the positivity rate. This stat represents the total number of positive Covid-19 cases as a proportion of all tests carried out.

Countries need to keep this rate below five per cent or risk seeing cases spiral out of control, according to the World Health Organisation. Yet the vast majority of local areas in England currently exceed this limit. 

There is one notable exception: Liverpool. The city has been the scene of a rapid test trial in recent weeks, which appears to have kept the area’s positivity rate below five per cent despite its higher case rate. 

A health system under pressure

Before an area can move down the tier system, the Government will want to ensure that the local health system can handle any fresh surge in hospitalisations.

Areas in the South-West and east of England are in a stronger position in terms of spare bed capacity.

According to the latest data, from November 22, 62 patients in the South-West and 77 in the East are on mechanical ventilation beds. 

Meanwhile, in the Midlands more than 300 mechanical ventilation beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients. London, the North-West and North-East and Yorkshire all have more than 200 patients.

The cost of lockdown

Finally, the Government will also be considering the economic consequences of plunging specific areas into lockdown.

As online job advert data from Adzuna shows, hiring for new positions in England has fallen off a cliff. 

Not all regions have been hit equally though, the data suggests, with businesses in London, the South-East and the East suffering the most. 

On the 3rd of November, Prime Minister Boris Johnson brought in strict new lockdown measures across England. At the same time, Wales and Scotland were already under heavy restrictions. With the firebreak now over in Wales, the introduction of four tiers in Scotland, and the lockdown in England due to be lifted on the 2nd December, I wanted to take a look at what the figures say about the last few weeks. 

covid.joinzoe.com 

Generally we would expect to see an effect on new cases after 10-14 days, with a knock-on effect on hospital admissions and reduced deaths a few weeks later.

So have these national efforts been working?

The answer is… it depends.

COVID-19 rates for the UK are falling, but there are regional differences

The good news is that our latest analysis for the whole of the UK shows that we are past the peak of new COVID-19 cases, which probably occurred before we went into Lockdown 2.0. 

The bad news is that this positive trend masks significant regional differences.

Areas that were under relatively strict tier restrictions in October – including the North East and North West of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – are all seeing a continued drop in the number of new COVID-19 cases after peaking in the second half of October. 

By contrast, the number of new cases in the Midlands has risen steadily since the beginning of October and continued during lockdown. Rates are now higher here than in the North of England, although hopefully showing signs of levelling off. 

The increases over the last month are hard to explain, given that the Midlands has had many areas under tight restrictions for months. It may be due to reduced compliance over time, or a last-minute increase in socialising before the national lockdown.

Areas that were under lighter Tier 1 restrictions in October with relatively low numbers of cases – such as the South East, South West and East of England – showed initial rises during the first two weeks of lockdown, which now have largely plateaued. 

London, which was badly hit in the first wave, has not increased dramatically as feared, apparently peaking at the third week of October and now levelling off.

London

Who is getting COVID-19 across the UK in Lockdown 2.0?

Our data shows that people who fall ill with COVID-19 tend to be younger. The highest rates are in the 20-39 age groups, who are probably most exposed, and the lowest in people over 60. 

Most age groups are showing a decline in cases, except for children and young people under 19 at school and university which are stable.

So while it looks like younger people are driving the current wave of infections, numbers are still relatively low in the older age group that is most likely to become seriously ill or die from the disease, and these numbers appear to be on the way down as well. 

Age groups

However, we shouldn’t be complacent given that up to one in twenty people will suffer from ‘long COVID’, including younger age groups, it’s still vitally important that we all do everything we can to reduce the spread of coronavirus through the UK without crippling the economy, whether mandatory restrictions are in place or not.

How the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app calculates COVID-19 rates

Our figures are predictions about the number of COVID-19 cases based on symptom data provided by over a million weekly users of the app across the UK, combined with the number of local cases confirmed with positive COVID-19 tests. 

Although our numbers track in line with other sources, including the national ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey (which randomly tests households across England), the Imperial College REACT-1 study and official government test figures, we calculate these rates using predictions based on reported symptoms rather than testing alone. 

This means that we include people who are highly likely to have COVID-19 but haven’t been tested or are waiting for results. 

Reassuringly our rapid near real-time data matches the other surveys well. This graph shows how the ONS, Government and ZOE COVID Symptom Study surveys compare, with both our study and the ONS Survey suggesting that we were well past the peak of new infections before the new lockdown started, with our data showing trends a few days earlier. 

Are the restrictions working?

Our data shows that England’s tiered system of COVID-19 restrictions was already working when the decision was made to enter a second national lockdown. The situation is similar in Scotland, with cases falling ahead of the new stricter rules being introduced this week.

Broadly, it looks like things are getting under control, with new cases slowly coming down around the country, although at very different rates depending on where you live. According to NHS data up to November 18th Hospital admissions have stabilised, with the seven-day average beginning to fall for the first time, and a peak possibly reached on November 11th. This cannot be due to lockdown, since this would take at least two weeks to have an effect on admissions, and so reflects changes in infections pre-lockdown. Deaths have also now stabilised since November 11th and, again, this can only be due to decreases in infection pre-lockdown, since it would take at least three weeks for the lockdown to impact deaths.

This should mean that this second wave of infections and resulting hospital cases will decline further and we can return to more modest restrictions in December. Those restrictions should be based on encouraging voluntary behaviour changes and using regional data on new cases and hospital admissions / capacity rather than just projected models.

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study app is providing the data we need

The more people we have using the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, the more accurate our data about how COVID-19 rates are changing across the UK. 

Collecting data in this way not only gives us information in near real-time, days ahead of the government testing programme, but is amazingly cost-effective. The ZOE COVID Symptom Study costs a fraction of other testing-based survey methods.

Please share the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app with someone else today, to give the UK public the information we need to get through the coming months and back to normal.

Together we’ll get through this – stay safe and keep logging.

Tim Spector