The Idea being floated is that devolution would be facilitated if there was a Metro Mayor for the combined area of Exeter, East Devon, Mid Devon and Teignbridge.

The “moles” tell Owl that Devon County Councillor Phil Twiss, as newly appointed cabinet member for finance, is plotting to dismember Devon into several unitary authorities.

Would this proposal pass his “scrutiny”? Probably not because none of these districts is currently Conservative controlled! – Owl 

Daniel Clark, Local Democracy Reporter sidmouth.nub.news

It’s been suggested that a Metro Mayor for the area of Exeter, East Devon, Mid Devon and Teignbridge could drive forward infrastructure improvements across the area, boost the economy and support job creation.

Metro mayors hold powers over spatial planning, regional transport, the provision of skills training, business support services, and economic development, and are directly elected by residents.

Cllr Paul Millar floated the idea at East Devon District Council Strategic Planning Committee on Tuesday, June 22, as the best way to get the ‘first class infrastructure’ that the region needs in order to flourish and prosper.

His suggestion would see the authorities of Exeter, East Devon, Mid Devon and Teignbridge – who were working together on a combined Greater Exeter Strategic Plan until it collapsed last summer – prepare a shared vision for devolution as they begin work on their joint, non-statutory strategic plan.

Why do we need a Strategic Plan?

The Greater Exeter Strategic Plan (GESP) was to be the formal, statutory planning framework for development across Exeter, East Devon, Mid Devon and Teignbridge, but collapsed after East Devon and then Mid Devon pulled out last summer.

However, the four councils did all agree that in its place there should be a non-statutory Joint Strategy covering infrastructure matters that affect the four areas, and on Tuesday East Devon joined Mid Devon in agreeing to support the scope, resourcing, timetable and governance arrangements.

The Joint Strategy is an opportunity for the authorities to jointly identify a clear, ambitious future for the area, demonstrate a commitment to joint working on strategic matters and distil the key strategic issues facing the area. It would enable each of the authorities’ Local Plans to respond in a way that reflects local conditions, support joint evidence preparation where appropriate, and act as a prospectus to lever in external funding to overcome strategic issues and unlock development.

The case for having a Metro Mayor

Cllr Millar, speaking at the meeting, suggested that given the scope and the ‘recognisable brand’ of the Greater Exeter region, a Metro Mayor for the area may be a sensible route to achieve some of the aims.

He said: “It is important we retain the Greater Exeter brand as the region has a bright future and when you look at the rest of the country, to get first class infrastructure, the answer tends to be Metro Mayors, so I can see the Greater Exeter brand leading us down that route, so have there been discussion among authorities on what the branding may be at this stage?”

After the meeting, Cllr Millar added: “Take Greater Manchester and their Metro Mayor Andy Burnham, who is bringing public transport back under public control, making bus travel more affordable. Metro mayors have independence from their political parties, thus being able to get things done without the usual point scoring.

“We’re still working together on a joint plan as four authorities, but leaders are seemingly ashamed to refer to the idea of a ‘Greater Exeter’ since the GESP died.

“As a fairly recent graduate, I want to see the South West deliver more jobs and a greater range of them. Andy Burnham didn’t just get a massive transport budget and powers to go with them for his beloved Greater Manchester, but generous grants to kickstart apprenticeship schemes. This area desperately needs that to keep more of our young people and with Exeter University, we have the platform to do so.

“I am by all means aware that there are many precarious hoops to jump through before any devolution deal is granted by the government. But the idea of a Greater Exeter City Region – East Devon, Exeter, Mid Devon and Teignbridge – makes a lot of economic sense.”

“For the future prosperity of our area, devolution matters, and a Metro Mayor and four combined unitary authorities would be the best way to achieve that.”

The argument against the Metro Mayor idea

However, Cllr Paul Arnott, leader of East Devon District Council, said that he didn’t expect the Metro Mayor suggestion to be taken up, and that given the backlash against the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan, the four leaders were unanimous in agreeing that the non-statutory strategy had to have a different name.

He said: “I think I don’t see Exeter going in the Metro Mayor direction any time soon. One of the difficulties GESP had was the areas on the extremities – like where I live in Colyton -we do business and look to Taunton and Bridport as much as Exeter and that was the same with far parts of Teignbridge as well.”

Cllr Paul Hayward, deputy leader of the council, added: “We need to seek assurance we are cooperating with the other authorities of South Somerset and Dorset as well.

“Axminster has a lot of interest in sites for development, as does Colyton and Seaton, Lyme Regis is looking to Uplyme to solve some of its problems, Chard is encroaching south into East Devon, so there is a great deal of interest along the boundary, so we need an assurance not just looking to the authorities that were in the GESP, but talking to the authorities in the east so what they do doesn’t impact on us and vice versa.”

Following a proposal made by Cllr Mike Allen, the committee voted by nine votes to one, with one abstention, that while they would be engaging a consultant to prepare the Joint Strategy on behalf of the authorities, and any brief would include the statement that each authority will consume its own housing need.

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Holidaymakers must remain vigilant when enjoying staycations this summer amid the risk of a rise in coronavirus cases at popular tourist spots, a leading scientist has warned.

From today’s Western Morning News

A “sudden influx” of people holidaying in Cornwall over half-term is likely to be a factor in an increase in cases in the county, Professor Tim Spector said.

One local councillor described a recent rise in cases as a “tsunami” in the wake of the G7 summit held earlier this month, but the Government denied a link between the two.

Prof Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and lead scientist on the Zoe Covid study app, said data this week shows “rates in former hot-spots, such as Scotland and the north west of England, continuing to plateau”. He added: “At the same time, top UK holiday destinations like Cornwall are emerging as new areas with rapidly increasing cases. I think this is down to a number of factors, including the sudden influx of holidaymakers over half-term, as well as the recent G7 summit and a previously unexposed local population.

“We need to remain vigilant of these UK holiday destinations as summer holidays approach, and ensure that we minimise outbreaks by following Government guidelines.”

The latest local authority area figures show that Cornwall and Isles of Scilly had 857 new cases recorded in the seven days to June 19, up from 411 the previous week.

The long-running Zoe study estimates that among unvaccinated people in the UK there are currently 15,099 new daily symptomatic cases of Covid-19, up 18% on last week.

“Only a small minority of the tests it has bought have been registered as used……

“Research suggests that only a minority of people who have COVID-19 symptoms come forward for testing. It has no target for increasing this, the uptake of LFD testing or compliance with self-isolation…..

“Local authorities still struggle to get timely access to the data they need to deal with localised outbreaks of COVID-19…..

www.nao.org.uk

Test and trace in England – progress update

This is the second NAO report on government’s approach to test and trace services in England.

Report conclusions

The primary goal of NHST&T is to help break chains of COVID-19 transmission and enable people to return towards a more normal way of life. Since it was established in May 2020 there have been two national lockdowns and more than four million confirmed cases. In order to break chains of transmission, SAGE advises that it is desirable that no more than 48 hours should elapse between identification of an index case and their contacts self-isolating, and that 80% of these contacts would need to be reached. NHST&T now reaches around 85% of all contacts, and has reduced the elapsed time to trace contacts for in-person PCR tests. However, in‑person PCR tests make up a declining minority of tests, and it is less clear whether the wider system is operating as quickly as it needs to. Since November, it has rolled out a national asymptomatic testing programme to seek to identify those people who do not know they have COVID-19. Only a small minority of the tests it has bought have been registered as used, and NHST&T is now undertaking research to understand the reasons for this with a work programme underway to bring about improvements. The success of the test and trace programme relies on the public coming forward for tests when they have symptoms, carrying out asymptomatic tests when they do not, and complying with instructions to self‑isolate where necessary. NHST&T is responsible for driving up public compliance, but research suggests that only a minority of people who have COVID-19 symptoms come forward for testing. It has no target for increasing this, the uptake of LFD testing or compliance with self-isolation.

NHST&T was set up at speed with a workforce heavily reliant on consultants. It had planned to reduce its dependency on consultants but has not yet done so. NHST&T operates in an environment of high uncertainty, where demand for testing and tracing can be affected at short notice by new variants, case numbers and policy decisions (for example, national lockdowns). It is therefore challenging to forecast costs with precision. However, there is a very wide margin between the underspend of around 10% that NHST&T discussed with the Committee of Public Accounts in January 2021, and the 39% underspend of its 2020-21 budget that it reported two months later. It has taken steps to increase the flexibility of its contracts for contact tracing and future laboratory use and has generally improved its provision of data to and engagement with local authorities. However, local authorities still struggle to get timely access to the data they need to deal with localised outbreaks of COVID-19, and they are unclear on the planned operating model after July 2021. To achieve value for money NHST&T must be able to demonstrate both that the interventions it delivers are effective in achieving its objective, and that the mix of interventions is the most cost-effective use of public resources.

The Good Law Project has dropped its legal challenge to the government’s recruitment of Kate Bingham as chair of the vaccines taskforce, which had alleged it failed to follow a valid process and gave key roles in the pandemic to people well-connected to the Conservative party.

David Conn www.theguardian.com 

In the same legal action, the GLP is maintaining its challenge to the appointments of Dido Harding as head of NHS test and trace, and of Mike Coupe, who formerly worked with Harding at Sainsbury’s, as director of testing.

The government has defended the legal action, maintaining the appointments were all fair and lawful, and recently issued a detailed defence setting out the circumstances of the recruitment process, which led to the GLP dropping its action in relation to Bingham.

The government’s detailed defence document will not be made public until the case is heard – no date has yet been scheduled – but Jolyon Maugham, director of the GLP, said the process for appointing Bingham, while it did not follow an open advertising process, had been better than expected.

“We are not dropping the challenge or the point of principle that fair, open and transparent recruitment processes deliver better outcomes for the public,” Maugham said. “None of these recruitment processes during the pandemic were optimal; we are still unhappy with the government’s explanations relating to Dido Harding and Mike Coupe, but they have provided a better explanation regarding Kate Bingham, and it is responsible for us not to pursue that further.”

Bingham is managing partner of the venture capital firm SV Health Investments. Her appointment to the unpaid role of heading the UK’s efforts to secure Covid-19 vaccines was formally made by Johnson last May, and she reported directly to the prime minister.

Along with Harding, who was made a Conservative peer by David Cameron in 2014, her appointment led to claims they were part of a “chumocracy”.

The government has emphatically defended all its appointments, and praised Bingham for her achievements in investing in the manufacture of Covid-19 vaccines and securing 350m doses, saying in a public statement in November:

“Kate Bingham is uniquely qualified for the role of chair, having worked in the biotech and life sciences sectors for 30 years. While not specifically a vaccines expert, she is a proven drugs discovery expert with superb deal-making skills and an excellent global reputation, recently appearing alongside Bill Gates at the Gates Grand Challenge Conference.”

Earlier this month Bingham was given a damehood for her work on the vaccines operation in the Queen’s birthday honours list.

Last year more deaths than births were registered in the UK for the first time since 1976.

By Robert Cuffe Head of statistics www.bbc.co.uk

In total, just over 683,000 births were registered compared with nearly 690,000 deaths.

This was only the second time deaths have outnumbered births since the late 1890s.

The coronavirus epidemic led to a sharp rise in deaths last year but birth rates have also been falling for the last decade.

The coronavirus effect

The number of deaths in the UK has been rising in recent years, but part of that increase is due to the UK population increasing and getting older.

Last year’s 13% rise in that figure is attributed by statisticians to the coronavirus pandemic.

It was the largest jump in a single year seen since World War Two, bringing death rates, the chances of any single person dying, back to levels seen in 2008.

Figures published this morning by the Office for National Statistics suggest the first lockdown had not led to a baby boom.

Birth rates in December and January, nine months after lockdown started, were sharply down on the same months one year before.

But the pandemic has affected register offices, leading to problems with birth registrations, so the ONS “urges caution” when reading meaning into these figures.

It is perhaps unsurprising – and it should be a one off – but the provisional finding that the UK natural population shrank is stark all the same.

The spike in deaths above the number of births puts pandemic mortality into some sort of context.

But it also shines a light on the significant falls in the fertility rate in the past few years.

In 2012, the total fertility rate was 1.92 – close to the level where a population replaces itself.

In just eight years that has fallen below 1.6, much closer now to societies considered to be “ageing” such as Germany and Japan.

There are many questions to ask about whether this is linked to a significant squeeze on younger families.

These figures need not necessarily be a problem. However, if confirmed in the final figures, they do point to significant changes for British society and its economy too.

Falling birth rates

Part of the reason that deaths have outstripped births is that births have been falling steadily in every nation of the UK since at least 2015.

The Office for National Statistics says this is because we are having children later in life and fewer of them.

This trend has been happening for decades but it wasn’t apparent in the noughties as another trend was masking it.

Back then, younger migrants tended to have more children than UK-born mothers and so they propped up British birth rates.

But this is no longer the case and birth rates have been falling since 2011, feeding through into a lower total number of births by the middle of the decade.

When did this last happen?

The last time deaths outnumbered births was in 1976.

In that year, there were just under 681,000 deaths and about 5,000 fewer births.

The main driver was falling birth rates: the late 1960s and 1970s saw sharp falls in the number of live births in the UK.

There has been some relationship between the state of the economy and the number of births and the low levels in the 70s coincided with a faltering economy.

But the biggest reason for the sharp change was the widespread availability of contraception and the legalisation of abortion in the UK in the late 60s.

It is likely that more Britons died than were born during some years of the World Wars, with the smallest gap between the two in 1940, the year of the Blitz.

But deaths of military personnel who died abroad are not included in the UK death registration figures charted above.

Infections are increasing everywhere but Cornwall and Exeter have infection levels above average for England

BBC Local news Published 23 June

Here are the latest rates of cases of Covid-19 in Devon and Cornwall.

The figures show the number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people in the seven days up to and including 19 June, with the week before shown in brackets for comparison.

The breakdown of the figures by local authority area is:

• Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly – 150 (up from 72)
• Plymouth – 68 (up from 32)
• Exeter – 110 (up from 53)
• Mid Devon – 78 (up from 26)
• East Devon – 33 (up from 13)
• Torbay – 29 (up from 15)
• Teignbridge – 34 (up from 22)
• South Hams – 30 (up from 15)
• West Devon – 20 (down from 23)
• North Devon – 39 (up from 17)
• Torridge – 86 (up from 9)

For comparison, the figure for England is 101.