Today’s Politico newsletter:

The FT’s George Parker, Laura Hughes and Seb Payne reveal possible Tory rebels were told “they would lose funding for their constituency” if they voted against the amendment. A Tory veteran tells Jim Pickard: “Any MP who believed this deserves to have funding removed for being a thick gullible tw*t.” Labour’s Anneliese Dodds blasts: “Threatening to hold money back from voters and their communities, all to protect a Tory MP who broke the rules. If true this marks a new low for Johnson’s scandal-ridden Conservatives.”

gunpowder, treason and plot

“A worrying trend was the rise in cases in older and much more vulnerable people”

Ian Sample www.theguardian.com 

Scientists on the Zoe Covid study believe UK cases of coronavirus may have peaked for the year, a suggestion that prompted some experts to warn that it was too soon to know how the epidemic would play out in the weeks ahead.

The study, which estimates the number of Covid cases in the community from the information that users log on an app, found a clear decline in cases in under-18s since mid-October, with infection rates levelling off in most other age groups though still climbing in 55- to 75-year-olds.

The trends are based on 42,359 swab tests taken between 16 and 30 October and point to 88,592 daily symptomatic cases, a decrease of 4.7% on the previous week’s Zoe data. The numbers equate to one in 53 people in the UK currently with symptomatic Covid infections.

“Young people have been driving the big numbers of cases, and the big numbers look from our data to have finished,” said Prof Tim Spector, the lead scientist on the Zoe study, at King’s College London. “There are multiple reasons behind it, but a lot is driven by the pattern we are seeing with kids, plus the history of the past waves.”

It comes as figures on Thursday showed that 37,269 people across the UK tested positive for Covid in the previous 24 hours, a small drop on the 41,299 seen the day before. However, the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test recorded over the same period – 214 – was almost the same as the 217 reported the previous day.

In the autumn term Covid infections have soared in secondary school children, a cohort largely unprotected because of the slow rollout of vaccines to the age group. The Office for National Statistics estimates that more than 9% of children in years seven to 11 were infected in the week ending 22 October.

But the sustained high rates of infection in schools have driven up levels of immunity to the virus and at some point, with help from vaccinations, cases are expected to fall back down. Outbreak modellers expect this to happen unevenly across the country, with hard-hit areas such as London among the first to see cases drop in the age group.

What is unclear is when infection rates at schools will peak. Scientists on the React study, at Imperial College, have reported similar evidence for a downturn in cases at the end of October, but warned that the decline could be temporary and driven by children being out of school for half-term.

Kevin McConway, an emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said cases had fallen for only a short time and what would happen next was highly uncertain. “While I very much hope personally that the decline continues, I really don’t think we can be anywhere near certain that it will,” he said.

He added that while the Zoe study provided some plausible reasons for cases to keep falling, a lot seemed to be “expressions of hope more than definite predictions”. McConway said: “We can hope that the peak for 2021 has been reached, but we still need to plan accordingly for what should be done if it hasn’t been reached.”

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University, said a worrying trend was the rise in cases in older and much more vulnerable people. “Even though the vaccines give very good protection against severe disease they do not give complete protection, and these age groups continue to dominate hospital cases. I would not want to conclude that the UK Covid-19 pandemic is in decline until it declines in older and more vulnerable age groups. That has not happened yet.”

But does does Boris care? – Owl

Simon Jupp Conservative, East Devon

House prices are rising in East Devon, with the dream of home ownership becoming out of reach for too many local people. New-build developments must be affordable, with protections in place to restrict the number of properties becoming second homes. The loophole that allows second-home owners to avoid paying council tax should be closed quickly to help local authorities. Will the Prime Minister meet me and colleagues from across the south-west to discuss this growing crisis across our region?

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• (Citation: HC Deb, 3 November 2021, c909)

Boris Johnson The Prime Minister, Leader of the Conservative Party, The Prime Minister

I know how strongly my hon. Friend and other colleagues across the south-west feel about this issue. That is why we have legislated to introduce higher rates of stamp duty on second homes. We will ensure that only genuine holiday businesses can access small business rates relief, but I am certainly happy to meet colleagues to discuss what further we may do to ensure that local people get the homes that they need.

MPs are being paid tens of thousands of pounds a year to act as consultants and advisers for a range of companies, with some receiving many times their parliamentary salary.

Christopher McKeon www.standard.co.uk

Analysis of the Register of Members’ Financial Interests shows 34 MPs listing payments for consultancy or advisory work.

They include Owen Paterson who was found by the Standards Committee to have engaged in “egregious” lobbying on behalf of two companies that paid him a combined total of more than £100,000 per year.

There are no rules against MPs being paid for advising external businesses, provided they record it in their register of interests, but they must not lobby the Government on behalf of those businesses.

Mr Paterson, who is employed by diagnostics company Randox and sausage-maker Lynn’s Country Foods, is one of two MPs to be paid more than £100,000 for consultancy or advisory work.

The highest paid is former international development secretary Andrew Mitchell, who receives £182,600 per year for 32.5 days working for firms including investment companies Investec, SouthBridge and Kingsley Capital Partners, along with accountants Ernst & Young and consultants Montrose Associates.

Other MPs paid more than £100,000 per year for consulting work include former cabinet minister Chris Grayling who is paid £100,000 annually by Hutchison Ports Europe, and Chief Whip Julian Smith who receives a total of £144,000 per year from three companies.

Mark Garnier, a former international trade minister, earned more than his £81,932 annual parliamentary salary for consultancy work. He is paid £90,000 by two companies in the space sector – Laser Light Communications and Shetland Space Centre.

Some MPs also operate their own consultancy firms. Sir Bob Neill is the sole director of RJMN Ltd, which advanced him an interest-free loan of £68,000 in the 2019/20 financial year, according to its most recent accounts.

Mark Pritchard also owns a consultancy firm, Mark Pritchard Advisory Ltd, which made profits of £27,299 in the 2020/21 financial year and paid dividends of £13,000.

Here is a list of MPs receiving payments for consultancy or advisory work. It does not include all second jobs listed by MPs, with some continuing to work as lawyers, doctors and nurses, while others are listed as directors of companies. The list is predominantly Tory MPs, apart from Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey.

Conor Burns

– Trant Engineering, £40,000pa for 120 hours

Sir Graham Brady

– Snowshill Allied Holdings Ltd, £10,000pa for 12 hours

Andrew Bridgen

– Mere Plantations Ltd, £12,000pa for 96 hours

Steve Brine

– Remedium Partners, £19,200pa for 96 hours

– Microlink PC (UK) Ltd, £19,200pa for 96 hours

– Sigma, £19,992pa for 96 hours

– Total £58,392pa for 288 hours

Alun Cairns

– BBI Group (life sciences), £15,000pa for 70 hours

– Veezu Holdings (private hire transport), £15,000pa for 70 hours

– Elite Partners Capital Pte Ltd (property investment), £30,000pa for 84 hours

– Total £60,000pa for 70 hours

Sir Ed Davey

– Herbert Smith Freehills, political issues and policy analysis, £60,000pa for 72 hours

– Next Energy Capital, member of advisory board, £18,000pa for 48 hours

– Total £78,000 for 120 hours – money used to benefit Sir Ed’s disabled son

Philip Davies

– National Pawnbroking Association, £12,000pa for 60-120 hours

David Davis

– THI Holdings GmbH (German investment company), £33,900pa for 16 hours

– Chairs supervisory board of Kohlgartenstrasse 15 Verwaltungs AG (German property company), £16,948pa for 168 hours

– Total £50,848 for 184 hours

Sir Iain Duncan Smith

– International advisory board of Tunstall Health Group, £20,000pa for 30 hours

– Byotrol Technology Ltd, £25,000pa for 144 hours

– Total £45,000pa for 174 hours

Ruth Edwards

– MHR International ltd (HR software), £60,000pa for 192 hours

Ben Everitt

– Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, £15,000pa for 60-80 hours

Richard Fuller

– Investcorp Securities director, £20,000pa for 48 hours (plus additional £29,900 for 19 hours in 2021 so far)

Mark Garnier

– Laser Light Communications (satellites), £60,000pa for 120 hours

– Shetland Space Centre, £30,000pa for 120 hours

– Total £90,000 for 240 hours

Chris Grayling

– Hutchison Ports Europe, £100,000pa for 84 hours

Damian Green

– Abellio Transport Holdings, on rail policy, £40,000 pa for 288 hours

Stephen Hammond

– Darwin Alternative Investments, £60,000pa for 50-100 hours

Sir John Hayes

– BB Energy Trading Ltd, £50,000pa for 80-90 hours

Daniel Kawczynski

– The Electrum Group, £36,000pa for 360 hours

Sir Greg Knight

– Cambridge and Counties Bank Ltd, £16,000pa for 108 hours

Andrew Lewer

– Penelope Thornton Hotels, £4,800pa for 48 hours

Tim Loughton

– Outcomes First Group, £37,000pa for 144 hours

Paul Maynard

– Link Scheme Ltd (cash machines), £6,250pa for 32 hours – money paid direct to charity

Andrew Mitchell

– Investec, £12,000pa for two days

– Montrose Associates, £36,000pa for 8 days

– Ernst & Young, £30,000pa for five days

– Arch Emerging Partners, £15,000pa for 2.5 days

– SouthBridge, adviser on African matters to Rwanda-based company, £39,600pa for 9 days

– Kingsley Capital Partners, £50,000pa for 8 days plus share options

– Total £182,600 for 34.5 days

Sir Robert Neill

– Weightmans LLP, £15,000pa for 72 hours

– Substantia Group, £12,000pa for 72 hours

– Masonic Charitable Foundation, £7,500 for 10 hours (one-off payment)

– Total £34,500 for 154 hours

Owen Paterson

– Randox Laboratories, £99,996pa for 192 hours

– Lynn’s Country Foods, £12,000pa for 24 hours

– Total £111,996 for 216 hours

Andrew Percy

– Iogen Corporation (Canada), a clean energy company, £36,000pa for 36 hours

Mark Pritchard

– Consumer Credit Association, £18,000pa for 96 hours (a client of Mark Pritchard Advisory)

John Redwood

– Epic Private Equity, £5,000pa for 12 hours

Laurence Robertson

– Betting and Gaming Council, £24,000pa for 120 hours

Dean Russell

– EPIFNY Consulting, £2,000 for 28 hours in 2021

Chris Skidmore

– Oxford International Education Group, £10,000pa for 48-96 hours

Julian Smith

– Ryse Hydrogen Ltd, £60,000pa for 20 hours

– Simply Blue Management (UK) Ltd, £24,000pa for 12-24 hours

– MJM Marine Ltd, £60,000pa for 30-40 hours

– Total £144,000pa for 62-84 hours

Royston Smith

– Barker Mill Estates, £18,000 for 90 hours since May 2020

You couldn’t make this up:

The committee was to be chaired by the former culture secretary John Whittingdale. He was investigated by a previous parliamentary commissioner for standards over an undeclared trip to the MTV Europe awards in Amsterdam in 2013 with his then girlfriend, a dominatrix sex worker. The cost of the flights, hotel bill and entertainment, were covered by MTV.

www.theguardian.com

Of course, they’re self interested Tories – Owl

Politico newsletter yesterday:

Insider’s Henry Dyer has done some excellent analysis and found 22 of the Tory MPs who voted for the Leadsom amendment are either under current investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards or have had allegations upheld against them since the 2019 general election. Funnily enough there were not many declarations of interest on that front. The vote also saw the frankly ridiculous situation where Paterson was allowed to vote on his own case rather than recuse himself, which pretty much says it all.

The 19 Leadsom backers who have had complaints upheld against them:Adam Afriyie … Scott Benton … Crispin Blunt … Peter Bone … Maria Caulfield … Robert Courts … Richard Drax … David Duguid … Iain Duncan Smith … Mark Francois … George Freeman … Adam Holloway … Karl McCartney … Natalie Elphicke …Roger Gale … Theresa Villiers … Bob Stewart … Chloe Smith … and Craig Tracey.

The 3 Leadsom backers currently under investigation: James Cleverly… Daniel Kawczynski … David Warburton. If these 22 MPs can’t see why it’s inappropriate for them to be voting to effectively get rid of the current standards process then Playbook can’t help them.

Andrew Rawnsley looking into his crystal ball in April.

Tories are wrong to think that they will never face a day of reckoning for sleaze.

www.theguardian.com (last two paragraphs)

What won’t fundamentally alter is the character of Mr Johnson’s government. If you’ve missed the latest sleaze story, don’t worry, another one will be along in a minute. As I like to remark from time to time, the personality of institutions is hugely influenced by the example set by the person at the top. When the prime minister is a man with a lifelong contempt for the norms of decent behaviour and a career history of behaving as if he can get away with anything, the government is going to reflect his amoral character. Never forget that Mr Cummings was not sacked when he went for his lockdown-busting excursions around Durham, an example of “one rule for them” that mightily cut through to the public. They only parted company months later when the svengali fell out with the prime minister’s fiancee.

A culture of impunity in which unethical behaviour, however outrageous, never goes punished, is pretty much a guarantee of even worse to come in the future. I cannot tell you how the Johnson government will end or when, but it will surely not be a happily ever after. Sleaze may not catch up with the Tories tomorrow or next week or next month or even next year, but there will be a day of reckoning. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, governments become bankrupt in the eyes of the voters gradually, then suddenly.