Daily Archives: 20 Dec 2021

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Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 6 December

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Omicron is terrifying – so why won’t we learn from past mistakes? 

Across the country, even before Omicron admissions have started to rise, the bed occupancy in our hospitals is 94%.

“The secret consultant” www.theguardian.com 

That seems a luxury to me; it is quite a while since I saw an empty bed in mine. Our bed occupancy hovers around 100% and has done so for some weeks.

There is nothing unusual in this, however. Successive decades and serial A&E closures, combined with rising healthcare demands from an elderly and growing population, have meant our bed provision is far too small for our area. Even in a normal winter, critical bed crises are a common problem, with operations cancelled and patient care often compromised as a result. The whole system has been slowly gutted to the point that there is not even enough capacity to deal with routine fluctuations in demand.

This, however, is not shaping up to be a normal winter. The Omicron variant is spreading with a speed that is terrifying to me, even after all I have seen and done over the past months.

I don’t even need to look at the figures to know this; the evidence is all around me. Friends and family, even the careful ones, have started testing positive and having to isolate. There are multiple outbreaks in schools again. Football matches are being cancelled. And there are already many colleagues unable to attend work, leaving rota gaps that we are already struggling to cover.

And the worst of it is yet to come.

Extrapolating from the current figures, it looks like within our local area we will have infections in the tens of thousands by the middle of next week. And here comes the biggest unknown.

Is this variant really, as we all hope, less virulent than its predecessors? Will our vaccines and immunity be enough to keep people out of hospital? Even with a hopelessly optimistic low rate of hospitalisations, it still looks like there will be far too many patients for us to look after.

A small proportion of a very large number is still a large number. Remembering also that there is a lag of a week or two between infection rates rising and people becoming unwell enough to present to hospital, this means the potential point of maximum pressure comes around Christmas and New Year, when many of us were hoping, finally, to take a few days off, and many more will be sick or isolating with Covid.

And we have significant other pressures working against us. GPs are scaling back the routine care they offer in favour of vaccinations. Some hospitals are also cancelling elective care so that their consultants can join in the jabbing.

Despite this, the new variant has some power to evade the vaccine, meaning that even the current heroic effort may not put the requisite protections in place in time. Vaccinated patients are unlikely to get critically ill, but even relatively well patients coming into hospital could overwhelm us.

The reduction in usual care is likely to result in more patients seeking help in hospitals, despite best efforts.

One glimmer of hope is the new treatments for Covid now available for patients who are particularly vulnerable, with the aim of stopping the disease progressing and reducing the need for hospitalisations.

The first centres for this went live this week, using staff redeployed from other vital work. The problem is, however, that these were set up and resourced based on numbers calculated from the Delta variant. Within the first 24 hours of opening it became clear that the numbers now identified for treatment already exceeded capacity fivefold and are rising exponentially.

So even this hope must be tempered with realism: how much will these really be able to hold back the tide?

I find myself grudgingly admiring the Covid-19 virus, that with all our modern medicine and incredible science, it is still managing to confound us even 20 months on. It is a fearsome opponent.

So why, yet again, do we seem to be underestimating it? Why do we not learn from our mistakes?

For a healthcare system already strained beyond capacity the potential threat that Omicron poses is obvious, even though its virulence is yet unknown.

Why not therefore take at least some sensible precautions to try to hold back the spread, to buy us time to vaccinate some more and make sure we are set up to give all the therapies at our disposal?

Plan B will make very little difference to a strain this infectious. In any case, these measures take time to work.

By the time that hospitalisations start to rise, it will be too late. Surely it would be better to make the mistake of introducing early restrictions unnecessarily than to make the mistake of not doing so and causing unnecessary deaths?

Boris Johnson “know[s] the pressures on everyone in our NHS”. But does he really? Has he got any idea of the exhaustion, burnout and low morale that I see and feel every day? The dread that my colleagues and I express as we talk about what this winter holds in store, again? How it feels to be potentially facing yet another wave?

And yet still we sit on the fence, pretending we can vaccinate our way out of this while carrying on with life as normal. Talk of shielding the NHS rings hollow in the face of this inaction.

And while we have been working on throughout to keep people safe, it seems that in Downing Street they found the time to have unmasked quizzes and after-hours gatherings. How nice.

It really is hard to put into words exactly how shameful, deceitful, and hypocritical this is.

In medicine we sign up to a “duty of candour” that we all owe to our patients, whereby if mistakes are made we admit them, apologise, do our best to make amends. It is a basic thing that even the most junior medical student knows about. Too basic, it seems, for some important people to be concerned with.

What we have achieved in the NHS over the past year is little short of amazing. And now we are being asked to make another “extraordinary effort” by leaders who show themselves to be above such things yet too cowardly to admit it.

Yet without measures to protect us, will it be enough?

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The science is clear: the case for more Covid restrictions is overwhelming

Don’t you worry your little head over this Simon, just carry on partying. – Owl

Ian Sample www.theguardian.com

For a variant that came to light less than a month ago, the evidence for Omicron’s potential to wreak havoc has mounted at breakneck speed. What studies have emerged are rapid first takes, but the message they convey is now loud and clear: the scientific case for more restrictions is overwhelming. Without hard and swift action to curb transmission, the NHS faces a battering.

The first red flag came in late November when scientists in southern Africa shared early genomes of what became known as Omicron. Soon after they landed, Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, highlighted the “awful” mutations that marked it out as a fast-spreading, vaccine-dodging variant. On receiving a text about Peacock’s tweet, Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), conceded it filled her with gloom.

The warning spurred research around the clock to nail down the extent of the threat. One of the first to report was Dr Alex Sigal at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban. His team confirmed that Omicron largely escaped antibodies from vaccines or past infection, with antibodies following the Pfizer shot 41 times less effective against Omicron than the original Covid-19 virus. Other data from South Africa, and soon from around the world, showed that Omicron spread like wildfire, doubling every two to three days. As Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, phrased it: “There are several things we don’t know, but all the things that we do know are bad.”

As the infection spread, the UKHSA crunched early numbers to show that two doses of Covid vaccine did little to prevent symptomatic infection, though a booster kicked protection up to about 70%. On Friday, two reports from Prof Neil Ferguson’s group at Imperial College rounded out the picture. Their findings are tentative, but suggest a booster provides 80-86% protection against hospitalisation from Omicron. That is good from an individual perspective, but compares with 95% for Delta. The upshot is that hospitalisation rates for boosted people could be four times higher with Omicron.

Further analysis from the Imperial team shed light on the single most important unknown: how severe can Omicron infections be? Data from South Africa gave some cause for hope, with hospitalisations down on previous waves, but the researchers found no evidence Omicron was milder than Delta.

There are still hints of good news, however. Lab work led by Prof Ravi Gupta at Cambridge University suggests that Omicron may be less effective at attacking the lungs than Delta. The finding chimes with University of Hong Kong research that found Omicron replicated 70 times faster than older variants in the bronchial tubes, but is less likely to infect the lungs. The hope is this could make the variant spread fast but cause less severe disease.

But in documents released by the Sage committee on Saturday – after they pored over updated outbreak modelling from Warwick University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine – the assessment is frank. England is “highly likely” to have 1,000 to 2,000 daily hospitalisations by the end of December. Many of these are already baked in and will arrive at hospital doors in the next week or so, regardless of actions taken now. With no further restrictions beyond “plan B”, models point to at least 3,000 daily hospitalisations at the peak of the wave next month. “To prevent such a wave of hospitalisations, more stringent measures would need to be implemented before 2022,” the scientists wrote. That would prevent hospitalisations, not just delay them, as it would give more time for boosters to take effect.

Throughout the epidemic, scientists have stressed the importance of moving fast when cases take off. This is doubly true with a virus spreading as fast as Omicron, according to an assessment released by the environmental modelling and behavioural science groups that feed into Sage. If taken soon enough – within days – restrictions like those in place after step one or step two of the roadmap in England need not be in place for more than a few weeks, the experts write.

“The timing of such measures is crucial,” they add.

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Sidmouth: Councillors agree Sidford Business Park building heights ‘through gritted teeth’

Remember that Cllr Stuart Hughes claimed that this business park within the AONB had been deleted, when it hadn’t’, during the last iteration of the Local Plan. – Owl

Joe Ives, Local Democracy Reporter sidmouth.nub.news 

The size of buildings at a controversial business park to be built in Sidford has been agreed by East Devon District Council (EDDC) “through gritted teeth.”

The development, which was rejected by EDDC’s planning committee before being approved on appeal by the government’s Planning Inspectorate in August 2019, has been a source of contention for both the council and local residents.

The council had previously refused an outline application for the eight-square-kilometre business park because of concerns over dangers from increased HGV traffic through Sidbury and Sidford as a result of the development. There are also worries about the visual impact, as it is in an ‘Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty.’

When the Planning Inspectorate’s decision was announced in 2019, Sidmouth and Sidford councillor Stuart Hughes (Conservative) described the judgment as “basically a two fingers up to the Sid Valley” – a sentiment which is still widely felt.

When making its decision, the inspectorate pointed to the 250 new jobs expected to be created as one of its reasons for approval.

Either way, with the inspectorate’s 2019 decision the council had little choice but to support the proposals for the final details of the height of the buildings.

Sidford already struggles to get large vehicles through its roads (Credit: Daniel Clark/LDRS)

EDDC’s planning committee voted in favour of the ‘reserved matters’ application for the size of the buildings from the applicant, 0G Holdings Retirement Benefit Scheme.

It means the industrial estate will mainly consist of six-metre tall buildings. There will be two 7.5-metre-high buildings, roughly two storeys in height, next to the entrance at Two Bridges Road. The developer says the visual impact of these buildings will be partly mitigated by new trees.

A letter of objection from a local resident was read to the planning committee. It said: “There comes a point in time when somebody has to say enough is enough. This development has nothing to do with local economic benefit or creation of opportunities.”

They said the scheme had driven them “beyond anger.”

In 2019 The ‘Say NO To Sidford Business Park’ campaign collected 1,500 signatures in a petition.

However, given the decision of the Planning Inspectorate, EDDC can do little except approve the specific details as presented to the government.

Each councillor who voted for approval expressed their reluctance before doing so. Councillor Olly Davey (Green Party, Exmouth Town) and Cllr Richard Lawrence abstained. Councillor Geoff Pratt (Independent, Ottery St Mary) voted against approval. But in the end, the vote was carried.

Councillor Mike Howell sympathised with the objections raised by members of the public but stated there were no grounds for refusal, given the 2019 decision of the planning inspectorate. He said: “It is purely scale we are talking about and this is exactly the same as the proposal that went to appeal. The scale is set.

“We are really struggling with this and I wish I could see any hope of amending, changing – doing anything. As far as I can see there is no hope in hell. In fact, I would say if we did vote against it we would have costs awarded against us for acting ‘unreasonable.’”

Councillor Richard Lawrence (Conservative, Whimple and Rockbeare) said: “We are between a rock and a hard place and there is very little we can do about this.

“I can’t understand why the inspector gave these decisions but at the end of the day we’re faced with them and we must comply with them.”

Councillor Joe Whibley (Independent, Exmouth Town) said: “I would like the people who have objected to this to know that we do this [the reserved matters approval] through gritted teeth. This is not something that we’re all happy just to wave through.

“It’s incredibly frustrating.”

The proposed final appearance of the buildings will be voted on by the planning committee at a later date.

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The Tories call it electoral reform. Looks more like a bid to rig the system 

Showing you papers before you vote, surely this is something our “libertarian” Simon Jupp MP will have to oppose? – Owl

Nick Cohen www.theguardian.com

Picture the chaos at the next general election. Officials refuse to allow voters into polling stations because the Johnson government has denied democratic rights to everyone who cannot or will not produce photo ID.

Some are angry because they don’t have the required documents. Others sound paranoid as they tell reporters they don’t want to show passports and driving licences because they fear state surveillance. If nothing else, Covid has taught us the extent of the conspiratorial mentality. On election day the government reveals it is content to encourage a climate of paranoia, if it will give the Conservatives an advantage. Trust in the integrity of the election withers as the scale of voter suppression becomes apparent.

Last Monday, the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee, chaired, I must emphasise, by a Conservative MP, William Wragg, said that if Northern Ireland were a guide, ID checks would cause turnout to drop by 2.3%. On this measure, the Tories would disfranchise about one million of the 47.6 million people registered to vote.

Unlike Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK has no record of sectarian gerrymandering and civil war to justify controls. The facts of recent history do not concern Michael Gove. He has pursued vote rigging with Gollum-like obsessiveness since 2019. His oppressive intent is evident in the failure to produce proof that frauds are turning up at polling stations and stealing the identities of honest citizens. The protests of people denied the ballot would be everywhere in the media if that scare story were true. As it is, there was only one conviction for impersonation after the 2019 election, and the Commons committee described the government’s pretence that there was a hidden epidemic of voter fraud as “simply not good enough”.

It is evident in the speed with which the government is forcing its elections bill through parliament. It is evident in the lack of public consultation and bipartisan support. It is evident, above all, in the government’s choice of targets.

In a satirical twist, the Conservatives have assigned the task of ending the level playing field of free and fair elections to Gove’s Department for Levelling Up. They believe people without driving licences or passports will be poor and less likely to vote Conservative. I wouldn’t count on that in every Leaver town, and nor do ministers. They are leaving nothing to chance. Expats, who are more likely than not to be Tories, will be able to vote, however long they have lived abroad. All foreign nationals will be denied the vote, however long they have lived in the UK. People over 60, who disproportionately vote Conservative, will be able to use their travel passes as photo ID. The young, who don’t, won’t.

If this were happening in Hungary or Zimbabwe, we would know what to say: a corrupt clique was bending the rules to maintain its power. We don’t know what to say when election rigging happens in our own country because a self-satisfaction born of the UK’s lucky history holds that “it can’t happen here”. Even when it is happening here. Protests about the elections bill are confined to a nerdish group of politicians, journalists and academics.

The fate of the Electoral Commission ought to shake the complacent. Boris Johnson is threatening the independence of the referee that protects against corruption. The elections bill allows ministers to set the “strategy and policy” the commission must follow. The government claims it has been forced to act because of loss of confidence in the commission. The Commons investigation said there was no more evidence that the public had lost faith in the commission than there was of hordes of frauds at polling stations.

It warned instead of the danger of the government abusing its power to help it stay in office, even if abuse means undermining “public confidence in the effective and independent regulation of the electoral system”.

We risk becoming like the US where every vote is disputed by the losing side, and impartial arbiters are replaced with political lackeys. Indeed, we are already on that path. Whether in the courts, broadcasting or the regulatory system, undermining checks and balances has been the modus operandi of this government.

The scandal that led to the Conservatives losing North Shropshire began when the cabinet organised an assault on Kathryn Stone, the parliamentary commissioner for standards. She found against Owen Paterson for promoting companies that were paying him £110,000 a year for his bespoke services. Johnson, himself the subject of Stone’s inquiries, wanted the rules changed to give him and his colleagues more freedom to sponge at will. Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, showed his unfitness for public office by saying he found it “difficult” to see how Stone’s career could survive such an impertinence.

Stone saw off her enemies. By contrast, Lord Geidt, Johnson’s ministerial standards adviser, now cuts a pathetic figure. The credulous man actually believed the prime minister when he said he knew nothing about a businessman buddy, Lord Brownlow, paying for the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat until the media mentioned it in February 2021. A scrupulous investigation by the electoral commission found Johnson was tapping Brownlow for money in November 2020. Now Johnson wants to punish the Electoral Commission.

On Tuesday, Wragg wrote to Geidt to ask how he was independent when he did not appear to have the power to conduct proper investigations. “What steps are open to you if you feel that, in the course of an investigation, you may have been misled?”

The answer this government wants to hear is “none”, and not only from Geidt.

Once cautious Conservatives worried that, if they used their majority in parliament to hound their enemies, their opponents would one day turn the weapons they forged on the right.

Perhaps today’s Conservatives believe there will never be a Labour government that treats the Tory press the way they treat the BBC, or twist the rule of law and regulation of elections to suit the Labour rather than the Tory cause. After the revival of Labour and Liberal Democrat fortunes, you might find it ludicrous for Conservatives to think they can be in power for ever. If so, I urge you to look at how they are playing with electoral law to give themselves the best possible chance of doing just that.

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Boris Johnson and staff pictured with wine in Downing Street garden in May 2020

Boris Johnson has been pictured with wine and cheese alongside his wife and up to 17 staff in the Downing Street garden during lockdown, raising questions over No 10’s insistence a “work meeting” was taking place.

Dear reader, how good were your social contacts in May 2020, did you have wine and nibbles with 17 in your garden when social mixing between households was limited to two people? – Owl

Rowena Mason www.theguardian.com 

The photograph was shared with the Guardian following No 10’s denial last week that there was a social event on Friday 15 May 2020 including wine, spirits and pizza inside and outside the building. Johnson’s spokesman said Downing Street staff were working in the garden in the afternoon and evening.

However, the picture raises questions over that assertion. Bottles of wine are in evidence, there is a lack of social distancing and 19 people are gathered in groups across the Downing Street terrace and lawn.

At the time social mixing between households was limited to two people, who could only meet outdoors and at a distance of at least 2 metres. In workplaces, guidance said in-person meetings should only take place if “absolutely necessary”.

Angela Rayner, the deputy leader of the Labour party, described the picture as “a slap in the face of the British public”, adding: “The prime minister consistently shows us he has no regard for the rules he puts in place for the rest of us. Alleged drinking and partying late into the evening [at No 10] when the rest of us were only recently getting one daily walk.”

The prime minister has faced a string of allegations of partying and socialising in No 10 while Covid restrictions were in place. He was forced to order a civil service inquiry, though its head stepped down on Friday over allegations of his own Christmas party.

The past week has been described as the worst of the prime minister’s premiership, with a major rebellion by Conservative MPs over Covid regulations followed by a historic byelection defeat and the shock departure of the Brexit minister, David Frost.

In the new image shared with the Guardian, Boris Johnson and Carrie, who appears to be holding their newborn baby, are seen sitting around a table with a cheeseboard and wine, along with two people believed to be a civil servant and an aide. Last week No 10 said Johnson was working in the garden before retiring to his flat at 7pm.

On that day Matt Hancock, then health secretary, had given a 5pm press conference urging people to stick to the rules and not take advantage of the good weather over the May weekend to socialise in groups.

At the time schools were still shut and pubs and restaurants were closed, with strict controls on social mixing. More people had been allowed to return to their workplaces, but guidance said social distancing of 2 metres should be followed at all times and “only absolutely necessary participants should attend meetings and should maintain 2-metre separation throughout”.

The Guardian reported last week, as part of a joint investigation with the Independent, that Johnson had been present for an alleged social gathering in Downing Street on 15 May 2020. Sources said the prime minister had spent about 15 minutes with staff, telling an aide inside No 10 that they deserved a drink for “beating back” coronavirus.

Insiders claimed about 20 staff drank wine and spirits and ate pizza following a press conference on that day, some in offices inside No 10 and others going into the garden. Some staff stayed drinking until late into the evening, they alleged. The sources described the event as having a “celebratory” feel given the initial loosening of some restrictions and the good weather in London that day.

In response, No 10 said Johnson and staff had been working in the garden and made no reference to the allegations of drinking alcohol and socialising. The prime minister’s official spokesperson said last week: “In the summer months Downing Street staff regularly use the garden for some meetings. On 15 May 2020 the prime minister held a series of meetings throughout the afternoon, including briefly with the then health and care secretary and his team in the garden following a press conference.

“The prime minister went to his residence shortly after 7pm. A small number of staff required to be in work remained in the Downing Street garden for part of the afternoon and evening.”

Hancock, who was health secretary before he had to resign after breaking social distancing rules with his aide, Gina Coladangelo, said it was “not true” that he was involved in a social gathering. “After the press conference, which finished at approximately 5.53pm, Matt debriefed his own team, then went to the Downing Street garden to debrief the prime minister. He left Downing Street at 6.32pm and went back to the Department for Health and Social Care,” Hancock’s spokesperson said. There is no suggestion he was drinking or stayed late.

In light of the new picture, it is understood No 10 maintains that people drinking at work was not against regulations at the time. A Downing Street spokesperson said on Sunday: “As we said last week, work meetings often take place in the Downing Street garden in the summer months. On this occasion there were staff meetings after a No 10 press conference.

“Downing Street is the prime minister’s home as well as his workplace. The prime minister’s wife lives in No 10 and therefore also legitimately uses the garden.”

There have been a string of accusations that Downing Street staff broke rules by having Christmas parties, with the prime minister presiding over a Zoom quiz and giving a speech at a leaving do.

Johnson ordered an investigation after a video was leaked to ITV showing aides laughing about a Christmas party with wine and cheese, and suggesting passing it off as a business meeting. Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, stepped down from leading that investigation after it emerged his own office had held a Christmas party, and has been replaced by another senior civil servant, Sue Gray.

Rayner said: “This picture is utterly heartbreaking to see for the people that spent the first wave of the pandemic on the frontline of our health service, desperately missing their loved ones, enduring loneliness, missing funerals … Every day that passes seems to add another event to Sue Gray’s growing list of investigations into alleged unlawful gatherings in Downing Street.”

“Boris Johnson’s government is run with the attitude that it is one rule for them, and another for everyone else. He is totally unfit to lead our country.”

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Nadine Dorries ousted from Conservative WhatsApp group for praising PM

Owl would be interested to know whether Simon Jupp is one of the over 100 Tory MPs (now minus Nadine Dorries) who make up the “Clean Global Brexit” group. 

Were the Tories to oust Boris how long before Steve Baker MP formed a splinter group to oppose his successor?

Are we about return to 1997 headlines such as: “Tories fighting like ferrets in a sack” ?

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries has been kicked out of a Conservative WhatsApp group after urging MPs to show the prime minister “a bit of loyalty”.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tory WhatsApp group

Messages shot around the “Clean Global Brexit” group – made up of over 100 Tory MPs – following the resignation of Brexit Minister Lord Frost on Saturday.

After claims his exit was a “disaster” and a “hammer blow” for Boris Johnson, Ms Dorries called the PM “a hero”.

But former minister Steve Baker removed her, saying: “Enough is enough.”

The prime minister is facing growing criticism from a section of his backbenches, especially over the introduction of further Covid measures to tackle the Omicron variant.

He faced the biggest rebellion of his premiership on Tuesday when 100 of his own MPs voted down Plan B restrictions for England, including the introduction of Covid passports for certain venues.

But the measures passed after Labour decided to vote in favour of the plan.

Since then, the UK has reported days of record breaking case numbers, with Saturday’s coming in at 90,418.

And despite upset from his own party, Health Secretary Sajid Javid refused to rule out further Covid restrictions, telling the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme there were “no guarantees in this pandemic”.

On Saturday night, the resignation of Lord Frost – who had planned to leave in January – was leaked to the Mail on Sunday, speeding up his departure from government.

In his letter to the PM, he highlighted his “concerns about the current direction of travel” in No 10, and warned Mr Johnson “not be tempted by the kind of coercive measures we have seen elsewhere” to tackle coronavirus.

Tory MPs began reacting to the news in the WhatsApp group, calling Lord Frost a “hero” and saying his views were echoed by most of the party’s MPs.

But Ms Dorries – who was promoted to cabinet in the last reshuffle – responded by saying: “The hero is the prime minister who delivered Brexit.”

She added: “I’m aware as someone said today that regicide is in the DNA of [the] Conservative Party, but a bit of loyalty to the person who won an 83 [seat] majority and delivered Brexit wouldn’t go amiss.”

Her colleague Conor Burns said she was “absolutely right”, adding: “Memory seems to be very short.”

But before his post had even come through, Mr Baker removed Ms Dorries from the group, with another MP thanking him for the move.

He said there were two “critical” reasons for Mr Johnson’s large win in the December 2019 election – his Brexit deal being rejected by Parliament and the fact “someone (ahem) but not him persuaded [Nigel] Farage not to run against incumbents”.

But Mr Baker urged other members not to argue, posting: “We have troubles enough in our immediate future.”

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Omicron wave yet to reach Devon and Cornwall, expert warns

We are still experiencing the tail-end Delta surge from the large summer events such as Boardmasters!

Have you got that, Simon? – Owl

Evie Townend www.devonlive.com

An expert has warned that Devon and Cornwall are yet to experience the wave of Omicron that is gripping the rest of the country.

Dr David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, said that the region is experiencing the tail-end of the Delta-variant surge that was caused by large events such as Boardmasters at the end of summer.

While the overall Covid numbers across the region appear to be falling, he says this is due to the Delta washing out while the Omicron hit is still to come.

David said: “Bizarrely as numbers are climbing nationally, the overall numbers in the South West appear to be waning but that’s more because we are coming out of a late wave of the Delta variant spread from the end of the Boardmasters peak that we saw in summer.

“We still have lots of Delta variant patients with only around 12 to 13% Omicron cases in the South West but I suspect that what’s been seen nationally with Omicron rising tremendously, I’m expecting it will hit us next week.”

While the severity of the Omicron variant is not entirely known, David said that its rapid transmission within the vaccinated population is a large cause for concern.

He said: “There are a few cases of the Omicron variant in hospital but the bigger problem that we’re seeing with Omicron is how quickly it’s spreading even within populations that are vaccinated.

“From a staffing point of view, across the whole of the health service, you can’t be going to work if you’re carrying the virus that will spread to the compromised patients that you’re looking after.

“So one of the big things we’re very worried about is the impact that this is going to have on our ability to continue to provide a health service in the next few months.”

David said he hoped that there would be some sort of circuit-break lockdown in the near future, however he felt “the government had made it very clear that they were not going to interfere with Christmas.”

Instead, he said that along with cancelling super-spreader events, extending school holidays or reintroducing remote schooling was a sensible option that could be a “half-way house” between a full two-week lockdown with the potential to “nip the variant in the bud.”

He said: “What we saw in October, particularly stark across Devon and Cornwall, was a massive reduction in transmission when the kids were on half term and that was actually a lot more than we could have hoped for.

“It was the same in the summer, with the so-called ‘freedom day’, everyone thought it would go catastrophic but it turns out that children are acting much more as vectors than anyone was expecting.

“Kids are about to start holidays and so actually what I would suggest the most sensible thing at the moment would be to extend the school holidays by a week or so.

“If they extend the Christmas holidays by a week or two that means that any covid within the family unit will stay there as more people will have to work from home or got out, it sort of becomes a lockdown by default.

“A week or two extra weeks of kids not mixing at school, which is where most of the spread of the delta variant spread, could be enough to nip Omicron in the bud.”