Another damning verdict from the Institute for Fiscal Studies  ifs.org.uk

Whatever happened to the party of “sound money”? – Owl

In the ‘mini-Budget’ on Friday 23 September, the government is expected to confirm substantial tax-cutting measures reflecting the new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s commitments during the leadership campaign. Despite this – and despite the fact that the outlook for the economy is now much weaker than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March – this statement will not be accompanied by new official forecasts for the economy and the public finances. This is disappointing.

Key findings

(Full report can be found here)

1. The OBR last made a forecast of the public finances back in March. Since then, energy prices and inflation have risen well beyond what was expected, and growth forecasts have slumped. We are forecasting the public finances here based on Citi’s latest forecast for growth, inflation and interest rates. This implies a shorter and shallower recession than the Bank of England forecast in August, owing to the substantial support provided to household and business finances by the Energy Price Guarantee. In addition, the rise in the outlook for inflation since March cushions some of the hit to the cash size of the economy – which matters more than its real size for government receipts. Nevertheless, Citi forecasts that the cash economy will be 2% smaller in 2026–27 than the OBR forecast in March.

2. The fiscal cost of the Energy Price Guarantee is highly uncertain not least because the eventual cost will depend on the path of energy prices and, relatedly, whether the scheme is extended in some form. We assume the Energy Price Guarantee will cost well over £100 billion over the next two years, but that it will then be removed as per the government’s stated plan. It could be much more expensive and end up running for more than two years – or much cheaper than we assume.

3. The cost of reversing the recent rise in rates of National Insurance contributions, and cancelling next April’s planned large rise in the rate of corporation tax, is far more certain. Together Ms Truss’s tax commitments, if carried out in full, would lead to revenues being about £30 billion a year lower than they would otherwise have been. Since these are large and permanent measures, they also matter more for the long-run health of the public finances than the eventual cost of the Energy Price Guarantee.

4. Higher inflation will also push up spending on debt interest, state pensions and most working-age benefits. In contrast, spending on public services is set in cash terms, and therefore does not automatically adjust in the light of increased inflation. Previous IFS research has suggested that an additional £18 billion would need to be found in each of the next two years to restore public service spending plans to the real-terms generosity that was intended when the plans were set. In addition, Ms Truss has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade. Our forecasts do not include any top-up to public service spending plans that were set a year ago; hence there is considerable risk that borrowing will end up higher than our headline estimates suggest.

5. The combination of higher spending and substantial tax cuts leaves borrowing running at a much higher level than forecast in March. Importantly, even once the Energy Price Guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, our forecast has borrowing running at about £100 billion a year, over £60 billion a year higher than forecast in March. Almost half of this increase in borrowing would be due to the new tax cuts. At around 3.5% of national income, borrowing would be not far off double the 1.9% of national income that it averaged over the 60 years prior to the global financial crisis, when growth prospects were considerably higher. With investment spending running at about 2½% of national income, this would leave a persistent forecast current budget deficit of around 1% of national income. Without new tax cuts, the current budget would have been forecast to remain in balance.

6. On our forecasts, debt would increase, not just while the Energy Price Guarantee was in place, but also thereafter. Persistent current budget deficits and rising debt as a share of national income means that two main fiscal targets legislated only in January would be missed and that debt would be left on an ever-increasing path. Allowing debt to rise temporarily to finance one-off packages of support, such as the Energy Price Guarantee or the furlough scheme, in exceptional circumstances is justifiable and can be sustainable, but the same case cannot be made for allowing debt to rise indefinitely in order to enjoy lower taxes now.

7. Finding a way to somehow boost the UK’s rate of economic growth would undoubtedly help. But we should not underestimate the scale of the challenge: an increase in annual growth of more than 0.7% of national income – the increase required just to stabilise debt as a share of GDP at the very end of our forecasts – would be equivalent to the difference between the growth the UK experienced between 1983 and 2008 and that experienced in the 2010s. There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best.

Verdict on this element of Trussonomics is delivered before the policy is formally announced! – Owl

The rumoured move comes as average UK house price leapt by 15.5% annually in July. 

Suruchi Sharma Diwan www.inyourarea.co.uk 

In an attempt to drive growth, Liz Truss is reportedly poised to slash stamp duty in her first mini-Budget this week. In an effort to kickstart economic growth, the government could axe plans to raise corporation tax, reverse the hike in national insurance and end a cap on bankers’ bonuses.

The economic blueprint, set to be unveiled by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday this week, aims to stimulate further growth in the property market and help more people buy their first home. The Bank of England is expected to announce a rise in interest rates on Thursday as it battles to curb spiralling inflation.

Under the current rules, no stamp duty is paid on the first £125,000 of any property purchase, before rising to 2% between £125,001 and £250,000, 5% between £250,001 and £925,000, 10% between £925,001 and £1.5 million and 12% above £1.5 million. For first-time buyers, the threshold is higher at £300,000 – but only if the property costs less than £500,000. The stamp duty threshold was temporarily raised to £500,000 during the Covid pandemic to fire up the property market.

Whilst Downing Street declined to comment ahead of the fiscal event on Friday, industry reactions have started pouring in with critics warning that the rumoured move would make the housing crisis “even worse”.

“Doing more harm than good”

Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, feels potential cuts to stamp duty may risk “doing more harm than good”. She said: “No buyer will ever complain about a tax cut, but if the Government was to cut stamp duty it would mean ignoring the fact that the real brake on the property market is a severe shortage of supply.

“Stimulating demand without addressing supply problems would risk more buyers chasing a tiny number of properties, which would push prices up. It’s what we saw during the coronavirus-inspired stamp duty holiday.”

“We need green homes, not another buying frenzy”

Gregory Dewerpe, founder and chief investment officer at A/O PropTech, Europe’s largest proptech VC fund, said: “It’s clear the government has learned little from the housing market feeding frenzy during the pandemic, where a cut in stamp duty did little other than put extreme upward pressure on prices.

“As winter approaches, the world is facing a climate crisis, energy prices are at eye-watering levels, and the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe. We shouldn’t be making it easier to buy a house, instead, we should be making our houses greener. Government should prioritise energy efficiency rather than needlessly stimulate demand for an already tight housing supply.”

“No single magic bullet will improve the situation”

Richard Dana, founder and CEO of Tembo, the family mortgage broker, said: “I do not believe that there is one single magic bullet that will improve the situation for first-time buyers.

“We badly need innovation right across the board, from government initiatives to new offerings from specialist mortgage lenders. I fear that without this holistic approach, cutting stamp duty carries a risk that it will further drive-up house prices and put home ownership beyond the means of more people.”

“Affordability crisis of runaway house prices”

Andy Sommerville, director at property data and insight firm Search Acumen said: “We saw what the stamp duty holiday did to the market during the pandemic, and I have no doubt such a move will stimulate demand again. But, without supply-side reforms to boost housing stock, stimulating demand will mean more buyers bidding for the same number of properties, which can only mean one thing for house prices – affordability crisis of runaway house prices.

“Interest rates historically have averaged more than 4% and we’re expecting another rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow, so buyers do need to be aware that savings they make today through SDLT may be cancelled out through elevated mortgage repayments in years to come due to elevated house prices and borrowing rate rises.”

“Two-thirds of stamp duty comes from London and the South East”

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: “While we welcome any changes to reform stamp duty, a major move is needed from the Government to offset the impact of mortgage rates which will more than double this year and will impact market activity in London and the South East.

“Two-thirds of stamp duty comes from London and the South East where house prices are higher and the £500k+ stamp duty rates significantly add to the cost of moving. Changing stamp duty to boost market activity means stamp duty cuts will need to be targeted at homes priced at £500,000 and above – which currently account for 76% of stamp duty receipts.”

There are some, however, who are in support of the rumoured announcement saying, SDLT was an unnecessary tax anyway. The experts who support feel that stamp duty is a pretty bad tax – especially at high levels – that impedes mobility.

“Liz Truss must ensure they are targeted in the right way”

Jonathan Rolande, Spokesman National Association of Property Buyers said: “First-time buyers are always in need of a helping hand. Currently, they pay nothing up to a purchase price of £300,000. With huge inflation in the property market, this threshold is now looking on the low side.

“Increasing it to £350,000 would allow buyers to purchase at today’s prices without the burden of tax. A small adjustment such as this will not lead to a stampede and the consequent price rises seen thanks to previous cuts.”

From https://theriverstrust.org/sewage-map this looks to be the site of both the Exmouth treated sewage outlet into Lyme Bay and a sewer storm overflow.

In 2021, this sewer storm overflow spilled 49 times for a total of 628 hours, discharging into the Lyme Bay(c). – Owl

Anita Merritt www.devonlive.com

An unusual large structure has recently appeared in the sea by Devon Cliffs Holiday Park and will remain there for the next three weeks. The platform protruding out of the sea at Sandy Bay, believed to known as a Jack Up Barge, has been erected to enable South West Water to carry out ‘investigative work’ to upgrade the wastewater network in the area.

It is said to be part of a wider project to protect bathing water and the environment while reducing pollution. While the works are carried out people are still able to use the beach as normal.

This summer, some of Devon’s beaches have been closed for swimming following pollution concerns. In August and September, East Devon District Council issued a number of warning against visiting Exmouth beach due to pollution caused by heavy rain.

Such warnings have been issued multiple times since mid-August when the heat wave first gave way to heavy rain. Warnings have also been issued at Teignmouth Holcombe, Teignmouth Town, Sidmouth, Beer, and Wembury.

A spokesperson for South West Water said: “We are currently in the process of carrying out planned investigative work at Sandy Bay as part of a scheme to upgrade the wastewater network in the area. This initial work is expected to take around three weeks to complete and is part of a wider project to protect bathing water and the environment while reducing pollution.

“There should be no impact to customers as a result of this project and we will keep them fully updated on any further work.”

According to Exeter Port Authority, the Jack Up Barge ‘Mariner’ from Teignmouth moved to Sandy Bay last Saturday, September 17, during high water. It states the works will last approximately 20 days, ‘weather permitting’.

• Conversion of roof space to habitable use to include a rear dormer, 2 front rooflights and conversion of roof from hip to gable end.6 Ash Grove Exmouth Devon EX8 3BNRef. No: 22/2016/CPL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Provision of donkey tracks from Bat Barn Yard to Tip Field and improvements to Bat Barn Yard. Woods Farm Bowd Sidmouth EX10 0JSRef. No: 22/2011/FUL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of condition 2 (approved plans) and condition 5 (preliminary ecological appraisal and bat emergence survey report) of application 20/2890/FUL (Conversion and extension of 2 no. barns to form 3 no. dwellings; demolition and reconstruction of barn 3 to provide outbuilding for use incidental/ancillary to main farmhouse, and associated works) to facilitate rebuilding of courtyard wall and part of roof structure to barn 3. Ley Farm Yarcombe Devon EX14 9LWRef. No: 22/2014/VAR | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of replacement agricultural storage shed Broadhayes Farm Stockland EX14 9ELRef. No: 22/2004/FUL | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T13 Sycamore – Reduce by approximately 2m to match Holm Oaks. Maximum diameter of cuts 50mm T23 Monterey Pine – Fell and replant T24 Sycamore – Reduce height and northerly spread by approximately 3m and reshape. Maximum diameter of cuts 50mm Reason for Works: T13 Sycamore – Fast growing species, tree is starting to outcompete adjacent Holm Oaks. Consider light reduction. T23 Monterey Pine – Tree has recently lost one circa 250mm diameter limb from centre of Crown. Tree not worthy of retention T24 Sycamore – Tree suppressed by T25. Northern crown aspect lifted 2020. Consider light reduction to encourage lateral growth in anticipation of removal of Elvestone Fore Street Hill Budleigh Salterton Devon EX9 6HDRef. No: 22/2003/TRE | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey rear extension to include addition of 2 x rooflights. 18 Woodmans Orchard Talaton Exeter EX5 2SERef. No: 22/2001/FUL | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of detached dwelling with double garage together with associated external works including amendments to access driveway Little Foxholes 15 Foxholes Hill Exmouth Devon EX8 2DFRef. No: 22/1996/FUL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, Birch : removal of medium sized twin stemmed birch tree with large bark inclusion at base; likelihood of basal failure is increasing as enlarging stem diameters are putting increasing pressure on bark inclusion; secondary stem has a large rot pocket due to the removal of a branch in the past; root ball is now causing significant damage to the adjacent concrete pathway; both stems are within striking distance of properties should failure ocur. 3 Colybank Rosemary Lane Colyton EX24 6LRRef. No: 22/1991/TCA | Validated: Wed 07 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Reduce eastern lateral limb, exhibiting significant devay, to most suitable growth point (MDC 100mm) OR back to main stem (MDC 150mm) depending on climbing arborists opinion; Install new flexible brace; remove dead stem from the western aspect (MDC 175mm); reduce dead western limb back to suitable live growth (MDC 65mm) Beatlands House Beatlands Road Sidmouth EX10 8JHRef. No: 22/1995/TRE | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T3 – Pine Reduce two limbs on western aspect overhanging parking area of The Coach House. 1st limb arising at 10 metre above ground level (AGL) to be reduced by 2 metres, maximum diameter cut (MDC) of 100mm. 2nd limb arising at 12m AGL to be reduce by 3 metres, MDC 125mm. T4 – Pine Reduce first westerly growing limb back by 3 metres, MDC 75mm. T5 – Pine Reduce western aspect of canopy by 3.5 metres, tip pruning tertiary branches. MDC 100mm. These works are recommended to alleviate weight stresses on heavy limbs, therefore reducing the risk of limb failure over an area with a near permanent target. 7 Coach House West Hill Lane Budleigh Salterton EX9 6AARef. No: 22/1994/TRE | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of condition 2 (approved plans) and condition 5 (Varied to provide a wall in lieu of a boundary hedge) of application 20/2600/FUL (2 bedroom dwelling with garden and parking). Myrtle Cottage Clyst St Mary Exeter EX5 1BBRef. No: 22/1982/VAR | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Conversion of roof space to habitable use to include a side dormer with alteration to fenestration. Crosshills Lodge Lancercombe Sidmouth EX10 0JXRef. No: 22/1989/FUL | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey rear extension Beechdene Hillside Road Sidmouth EX10 8JFRef. No: 22/1988/FUL | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of condition no.2 (approved plans) on application 21/1847/FUL (Erection of replacement dwellinghouse (inc. demolition of existing) and alterations to vehicular access) to substitute the amended plans in the schedule of approved drawings. The Bungalow Berry Hill Beer Seaton EX12 3JPRef. No: 22/1981/VAR | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey front/side extension. 7C Cyprus Road Exmouth Devon EX8 2DZRef. No: 22/1963/FUL | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of a car port to include installation of electric garage door and conversion of pan tiled roof to slate roof. Honey Cottage Honey Lane Woodbury Salterton Devon EX5 1EJRef. No: 22/1978/FUL | Validated: Wed 07 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension and part single and part double storey extension to rear with first floor terrace and removal of existing side and rear extensions as well as conversion of carport to double garage with storage in pitched roof void above. Copplestone Cottage Copplestone Lane Colaton Raleigh EX10 0HWRef. No: 22/1976/LBC | Validated: Wed 07 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension and part single and part double storey extension to rear with first floor terrace and removal of existing side and rear extensions as well as conversion of carport to double garage with storage in pitched roof void above. Copplestone Cottage Copplestone Lane Colaton Raleigh Devon EX10 0HWRef. No: 22/1975/FUL | Validated: Wed 07 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Conversion of roof space to habitable use to include 1no. front dormer, 2no rear dormers with associated juliette balcony and 3 x front rooflights, roof extension, flat-roof projection and associated works. 4 Bennetts Hill Sidmouth Devon EX10 9XHRef. No: 22/1961/FUL | Validated: Wed 07 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of Condition No.2 (Approved Plans) on application 21/2913/FUL. Woodland Lodge Bystock Exmouth EX8 5EDRef. No: 22/1971/VAR | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension and single storey side garage extension. Little Barn Marsh Honiton EX14 9AJRef. No: 22/1970/FUL | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, Hornbeam : reduce Northern aspect of crown to provide up to approximately 2.5 metres clearance to adjacent property; reduce aspect of crown to NW by approximately 1.5 metres – any cuts made will have a maximum diameter up to approximately 25mm. Reduce encroachment on to property. Boundary House 6 Cricket Field Lane Budleigh Salterton Devon EX9 6SYRef. No: 22/1964/TRE | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, Ash : Tree has signs of Ash dieback and the clients concerned for the tree’s safety ; reduce crown of Ash by approximately 3-4 metres in height. 17 Glebelands Uplyme Devon DT7 3TBRef. No: 22/1965/TRE | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey rear extension to existing garage measuring 5.00m beyond original rear wall, 2.40m to the eaves and 2.40m in total height. 4 Old Barn Close Stoke Canon Exeter EX5 4ADRef. No: 22/1952/GPD | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Ash Tree on NE boundary of property – tree suffering from Ash Dieback – Fell Oak tree on NW boundary of property – fell dead stem Bickwell House Stadway Meadow Sidmouth EX10 8TBRef. No: 22/1956/TCA | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of lawfulness for the siting of a caravan within the domestic curtilage for ancillary living accommodation.Furzy Green Holly Ball Lane Whimple Devon EX5 2QXRef. No: 22/1946/CPL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey rear extension, outdoor pool with summer house, redevelopment and remodelling and landscaping works. Sandpipers (formerly Clear Waters) River Front Exton Exeter EX3 0PRRef. No: 22/1951/FUL | Validated: Mon 05 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Conversion of a barn to a single storey 1-bed dwelling. Moor Farm Talaton Exeter EX5 2RFRef. No: 22/1909/FUL | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Installation of a multi fuel stove within existing chimney to include installation of twin skinned flue liner. Drakes Cottage Broadclyst EX5 3JHRef. No: 22/1907/LBC | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Installation of a multi fuel stove within existing chimney to include installation of twin skinned flue liner. Drakes Cottage Broadclyst EX5 3JHRef. No: 22/1906/FUL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Conversion of barn into 2 bed dwelling with associated parking and a garden. St Andrews Harp Lane Aylesbeare EX5 2JLRef. No: 22/1889/FUL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Installation of air souce heat pump. 36 Slewton Crescent Whimple Exeter EX5 2QARef. No: 22/1821/FUL | Validated: Tue 06 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of a two storey 4-bed detached dwelling and associated infrastructure. South Lodge Courtlands Lane Exmouth Devon EX8 3NZRef. No: 22/1798/LBC | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of a two storey 4-bed detached dwelling and associated infrastructure. South Lodge Courtlands Lane Exmouth Devon EX8 3NZRef. No: 22/1797/FUL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of a proprietary mobile stable and tack room.22 Underhill Crescent Lympstone Devon EX8 5JFRef. No: 22/1748/CPL | Validated: Fri 09 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace existing wood doors and windows 3 Langsford Barton Exeter Road Newton Poppleford Devon EX10 0FBRef. No: 22/1589/FUL | Validated: Thu 08 Sep 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision

In another disarmingly frank answer to a question this week, Truss admitted that the U.K. was nowhere near securing a trade deal with Washington. Labour has been digging through the former trade secretary’s words over the past few years and found that she claimed a U.S. trade deal was her No. 1 priority in 2019… set a mid-2021 deadline during the pandemic … and insisted last summer that there was “significant progress” being made.

From Politico newsletter

Liz Truss will announce radical plans to cut stamp duty in the government’s mini-budget this week in an attempt to drive economic growth, The Times has been told.

Fuel on the fire of house prices – Owl

www.thetimes.co.uk  (Extract)

The prime minister and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, have been working on the plans for more than a month and will announce them on Friday.

Truss believes that cutting stamp duty will encourage economic growth by allowing more people to move and enabling first-time buyers to get on the property ladder.

Two Whitehall sources said that cuts to stamp duty were the “rabbit” in the mini-budget, which the government is billing as a “growth plan”. The fiscal statement will also include plans to reverse the national insurance rise and freeze corporation tax, two measures that will cost £30 billion a year between them.

Truss is also considering bringing forward plans to cut income tax by 1p in the pound from 2024 to next year, although this is likely to be reserved for a full budget before the end of the year…..

…..Under the present system no stamp duty is paid on the first £125,000 of any property purchase. Between £125,001 and £250,000 stamp duty is levied at 2 per cent, £250,001 and £925,000 5 per cent, £925,001 and £1.5 million 10 per cent and anything above £1.5 million 12 per cent. For first-time buyers the threshold at which stamp duty is paid is £300,000.

During the pandemic the stamp duty threshold was increased temporarily to £500,000 to help to stimulate the property market. Truss has previously said that cutting stamp duty is “critical” to economic growth. As chief secretary to the Treasury she said that the highest rate of stamp duty, which was introduced by George Osborne, was “clogging up” the housing market and leading to fewer transactions….

Homes acquired with “dirty money” in the richest parts of London could be seized and turned into affordable housing under plans to crack down on oligarchs using Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair “to rinse their money”.

Robert Booth www.theguardian.com 

Labour-controlled Westminster city council is examining the use of compulsory purchase orders in extreme cases where it finds properties are not being used for their stated purpose, as part of a push to “combat the capital’s reputation as the European centre for money laundering”.

The plan faces obstacles including a lack of transparency over property ownership and a shortage of checks on the registration of companies, but the council is threatening to use seized homes to help reduce the waiting list for affordable housing of 4,000 households.

The number of properties in Westminster registered to owners in Jersey and Russia has risen by 300% and 1,200% respectively since 2010.

The council is exploring the use of a compulsory purchase order against a property registered in Seychelles, the owner of which has run up significant council tax arrears.

Russians accused of corruption or of links to the Kremlin have bought property worth nearly £430m in Westminster since 2016 – more than in any other UK area – according to researchers at Transparency International UK (TIUK).

It is believed that property worth about £283m has been purchased in neighbouring Kensington and Chelsea.

Adam Hug has been leader of Westminster council since May, when Labour took control for the first time after 58 years of Conservative rule.

He said: “Westminster’s dirty secret has been known for many years, but those in power looked the other way for too long as money of questionable origin flooded into London and investors took advantage of our relatively lax laws.

“It took the war in Ukraine to refocus attention on oligarch investments and what London has become in terms of a European laundromat for dirty money.”

He said the problem went further than “[Vladimir] Putin and his henchmen”, and that it damages London’s reputation by supporting authoritarianism abroad. Hug added that it “drains the vitality of areas with empty or underused homes”.

The council is mapping properties owned overseas against council tax data to determine whether they are being used for their stated purpose.

Westminster plans to target homes it finds have been acquired with “dirty money” or “money of dubious origin”. The council defines dirty money as that obtained from criminal activity including bribery, theft of state funds and misuse of public office.

Money of dubious origin is money where there is no or limited transparency of how the funds were acquired, often associated with the use of tax havens or elaborate corporate constructions to avoid tax.

Rose Zussman, policy manager at TIUK, said: “It is no secret that kleptocrats and those with money to hide have invested vast sums into the Westminster property market over the years. It is promising to see the council seeking to help expose and recover these illicit assets.”

But she said any funds reclaimed that are linked to corruption should go back to victims in the origin state “to ensure justice is served”.

Hug is also convening a meeting of property owners, experts and officials in the capital to join the “Westminster against dirty money” campaign and is calling on the government to restrict the artificial use of tax havens, and increase funding for the National Crime Agency and HMRC to fight money laundering.

The council wants stronger identity checks when people register companies and the new beneficial property ownership register to be fully implemented.

The register went live last month and overseas entities that already own or lease land or property in the UK must submit their registrable beneficial owners or managing officers by 31 January 2023.

Kwasi Kwarteng has refused to let a government watchdog assess the economic impact of planned tax cuts expected in a mini-budget on Friday.

The party of “sound money” doesn’t want any inconvenient truths to get in the way. Are the Tories on course to crash the economy? – Owl

Rowena Mason www.theguardian.com 

Mel Stride, the Tory chair of the Treasury select committee, urged Kwarteng to allow independent forecasts for the public finances to be published alongside his mini-budget on Friday. Stride released a strongly worded statement urging more clarity around the effects of the new chancellor’s fiscal interventions.

The chancellor is expected to unveil tax cuts of £30bn to £50bn, according to some estimates, while the government’s intervention to freeze energy prices for consumers and businesses could cost more than £100bn. He is also expected to review his fiscal rules to allow the government to borrow more.

Stride, an ally of the former chancellor and defeated leadership contender Rishi Sunak, said independent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility were necessary to “provide reassurance and confidence to international markets and investors”.

He said: “As a committee, we have in the past reported to the house that we consider it very important that significant changes to taxation are announced in a fiscal event alongside an OBR forecast. These forecasts are a vital indicator of the health of the nation’s finances, and provide reassurance and confidence to international markets and investors.

“There has been a deterioration in our economic outlook since the last OBR forecast in March. There have been significant fiscal interventions since then and we are told there will be further significant interventions including major permanent tax cuts to be announced on Friday. Under these circumstances, it is vital that an independent OBR forecast is provided.”

Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR, said in a letter to Stride that he had notified Kwarteng when he became chancellor that the OBR was ready to provide a forecast. He said a quick turnaround would mean the forecasts provided “less complete analysis supporting the key judgments, less detailed breakdowns of the key economic, and less contextual and supplementary information than [forecasts] produced in normal times”, but it would give “the most complete and up-to-date picture of the economic and fiscal outlook as possible”.

But a government spokesperson said: “Given the exceptional circumstances our country faces, we have moved at immense speed to provide significant energy bill support for households and businesses, and are acting swiftly to set out further plans to kickstart economic growth later this week. We remain committed to maintaining the usual two forecasts in this fiscal year, as is required.”

It is understood the chancellor plans to hold a full budget later in the year, though the bulk of the measures ministers plan to implement in their first year of the administration are likely to be included in Friday’s event.

As well as the mini-budget on Friday, there is expected to be a statement from Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, on Wednesday, outlining an energy support package for businesses.

Michelle Donelan, the culture secretary, told broadcasters on Tuesday morning that the government understood why businesses wanted “clarity and assurance”.

She said: “Many companies and public sector organisations will need additional support and that is why we want to work up a tailored package to target that support and make sure that support is really the correct support.”

“We’re building an economy from the bottom up and middle out”

Still there are always the delusional zealots who back belief over experience. – Owl

Liz Truss favours trickle down economics but results can be trickle up

Trickle down economics was highly fashionable on the political right in the 1980s, when both Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher championed the idea. It resurfaced in America under both George W Bush and Donald Trump, and it is now undergoing a revival in Britain under the new prime minister, Liz Truss.

Larry Elliott www.theguardian.com 

The theory of trickle down economics is simple. Governments should cut taxes for the better off and for corporations because that is the key to securing faster growth. Entrepreneurs are more likely to start and expand businesses, companies are more inclined to invest and banks will tend to increase lending if they are paying less in tax.

Initially, the beneficiaries are the rich, but gradually everyone gains because as the economy gets bigger well-paid jobs are created for working people. Governments should stop focusing on how the economic pie is distributed and focus on growing the pie instead.

Supporters of trickle down often cite the work of the US economist Arthur Laffer as proof that the theory works. Laffer said tax cuts for the wealthy had a powerful multiplier effect and any revenues lost by governments from reducing tax rates would be more than compensated for by the fruits of higher growth.

Truss is using this argument to justify the £30bn of tax cuts to be announced in Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini budget on Friday, even though Laffer was clear his theory worked best when personal tax rates were prohibitively high, by which he meant between 50% and 100%. At rates below 50%, Laffer found cutting taxes led to bigger rather than smaller budget deficits.

In practice, trickle down did not go according to plan. Reagan and Bush slashed tax on higher earners but inequality soared: between 1979 and 2005 the incomes of the Top 1% of earners tripled while those of the bottom 20% rose by just 6%. It was more a case of trickle up than trickle down.

Moreover, Reagan’s combination of tax cuts for the rich and a big increase in defence spending resulted in a threefold increase in US federal government debt between 1981 and 1989. The US economy grew strongly in the latter years of Reagan’s presidency, but this was a period not just of higher spending on the military but also of cheaper borrowing after the cripplingly high interest rates of the early 1980s.

In a 2015 assessment, the International Monetary Fund rubbished trickle down and said governments should instead focus on policies that would directly help those on low and middle incomes.

“We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the Top 20% results in lower growth – that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down,” the IMF said. “This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class.” Joe Biden agrees.

Are the Tories on course to crash the economy?

An application has been submitted for a new operating centre to move into a village trading estate where residents have long complained about noise and dangerous traffic congestion from HGVs. Swindon-based OPX Logistics Ltd is seeking to keep five vehicles and five trailers at Lodge Trading Estate in Station Rd.

Anita Merritt www.devonlive.com 

The trading estate is already home to haulage company Heaver Brothers Ltd and also international courier delivery company TNT. Vast complaints have been made by locals who say large-vehicle/ heavy traffic volume companies should never have been permitted to operate in the rural residential area.

Narrow roads make it difficult for large vehicles to negotiate its way through. Photographs have often been shared on social media capturing stationary traffic and lorries attempting to pass each other in narrow lanes, which residents say highlights the road is not suitable for HGVs.

OPX Logistics, which has more than 30 years’ experience in the delivery of logistics, is required to advertise public notices to inform people of its plans. Anyone with concerns is is invited to write to the traffic commissioner who is responsible for licensing and regulating operators of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), public service vehicles (PSVs) and local bus services.

The notice states: “OPX Logistics Ltd of Ignition Park, Faraday Road, Swindon, SN3 5FB is applying to add an operating centre to keep five vehicles and five trailers at Lodge Trading Estate, Station Rd, Broadclyst, Broadclyst Station, Exeter EX5 3BS.

Residents have spoken about their frustration over traffic problems in Broadclyst (Image: Broadclyst Station Community)

“Owners or occupiers of land (including buildings) near the operating centre(s) who believe that their use or enjoyment of that land would be affected, should make written representations to the Traffic Commissioner at Hillcrest House, 386 Harehills Lane, Leeds, LS9 6NF, stating their reasons, within 21 days of this notice.

“Representors must at the same time send a copy of their representations to the applicant at the address given at the top of this notice. A Guide to Making Representations is available from the Traffic Commissioner’s office.

Liz Truss’s bid to “go for growth” by slashing taxes on big business profits has failed in the past and will fail again, a leading think tank is warning.

Rob Merrick www.independent.co.uk

The plan to scrap a hike in corporation tax ignores the harsh lessons of recent history – when investment stagnated despite ultra-low rates – and is not even favoured by business leaders, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is arguing.

Instead, it calls for a strategy stretching beyond tax to boost investment and productivity by tackling chronic problems in housing, energy, transport, skills and childcare.

“Slashing corporation tax is just a continuation of a failed race to the bottom that hasn’t delivered for the UK economy,” said George Dibb, head of the Centre for Economic Justice at the IPPR.

“Tax cuts are not a magic bullet to increase investment and growth – in fact, despite having some of the lowest levels of corporate taxation, business investment in the UK is the lowest in the G7.

“If the government were serious about boosting investment, it would be listening to businesses who want a serious economic strategy to support growth, boost innovation, and increase our low productivity.”

Friday’s mini-budget is expected to fulfil Ms Truss’s campaign pledge to axe the corporation tax hike, as one of a clutch of policies that will benefit the better off.

The levy is due to rise from 19p to 25p next April, after former chancellor Rishi Sunak reversed years of Tory economic faith by accepting the low rate was failing to fire up business investment.

The analysis by the IPPR has found that – even with the 19p rate, by far the lowest of the G7 leading economies – the UK fell behind its rivals in the investment race.

In 2019, it slipped behind Italy and Canada to have the lowest private sector investment in the G7 as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), the left-leaning think tank said.

The following year, the UK ranked a miserable 28th out of a 31-strong group of developed countries which are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Mr Dibb added: “We’re not just falling behind the largest economies either, the UK is consistently in the worst performers in the OECD club of 38 developed economies.”

He criticised a belief that a government “can cut tax and deregulate its way to growth, which has failed before” – contrasting it with Joe Biden’s “whole-government” approach.

A “chop-and-change” approach – which had seen government adopt five strategies in just eight years – was also confusing businesses and undermining UK economic credibility, Mr Dibb said.

The mini-budget is also expected to see taxes cut in a string of “investment zones”, where businesses may also be able to ignore some environmental regulations.

But a near-identical policy pursued by George Osborne after 2010 – when they were called “enterprise zones” – also failed to spur growth in economically left behind areas.

“This isn’t a Brexit freedom. It’s a nonsense.” Conservative MP

It was meant to be one of the sure-fire wins for Brexit, but plans to bring back imperial measurements face criticism over claims of a biased government review.

Jon Ungoed-Thomas www.theguardian.com

Ministers were keen to launch a review to revive imperial measurements – such as pounds and ounces – and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), now overseen by Jacob Rees-Mogg, conducted a government consultation over the summer. However, the questions appeared to have something missing.

The survey asked consumers: “If you had a choice, would you want to purchase items: i) in imperial units ii) in imperial units alongside a metric equivalent.”

No other option was given.

Officials said respondents who wanted to keep the current metric system could send in an email to the department or give their views in one of the text boxes in the survey.

The BBC Radio 4 programme More or Less last week highlighted concerns about the survey and criticism of it on social media.

One Twitter user commented: “This survey is being punted out by BEIS. It is so slanted that the words nearly slide off the page.”

Dr Pamela Campanelli, a consultant on survey methods who has advised local government, told More or Less: “This is missing the category that you would prefer metric only. We’re going to get a biased answer, because people have to choose something that doesn’t apply to them.

“It seems like they’re actually trying to sculpt or lead the responses towards what they want, because they want people to go back to imperial.”

France adopted a metric system in the late 18th century, and a Decimalisation Assocation was founded in Britain in 1841 to lobby for a new system for currency and measurements. A report by a standards commission in the 1860s recommended metrication for Britain, but it was another 100 years before a government board was set up in 1969 to promote and coordinate metrication.

Once Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973, the government committed to adopting the metric system. Regulations introduced in 1995 required goods to be sold in metric units in the UK.

In a high profile case in 2002, five market traders – know as the “metric martyrs” – lost their court battle for a right to trade in pounds and ounces. The battle was supported by celebrities including the comedian John Cleese and politicians including Boris Johnson.

Rees-Mogg, who had a cabinet role to identify Brexit opportunities, has been a long-term supporter of using imperial measurements. The proposed change is however unlikely to be hailed as a significant Brexit dividend.

“Not one constituent, ever, has asked for this,” Conservative MP Alicia Kearns tweeted earlier this year. “This isn’t a Brexit freedom. It’s a nonsense.”

BEIS officials say the purpose of the consultation was to examine how greater choice could be given to businesses and consumers. The government has not yet said when the response to the consultation will be published.

As Jayawardena (the new Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) announced his new role by visiting an intensive chicken farm and made little mention of nature, instead focusing on food security.

Says it all! – Owl

Helena Horton www.theguardian.com

The head of Natural England and the chair of England’s largest landowners’ organisation are to meet the new environment secretary to urge him not to scrap or water down rewilding schemes.

Tony Juniper, who will meet Ranil Jayawardena along with the CLA chair Mark Tufnell on Tuesday, pointed out that swathes of prime land were being used for golf courses, housing and other infrastructure but political focus was on the small amount that would be rewilded.

There has been concern that the new government might roll back nature recovery schemes put in place by the previous administration, in which landowners and farmers are paid for improving nature.

The business secretary, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is said to have pushed back against the schemes, while Jayawardena announced his new role by visiting an intensive chicken farm and made little mention of nature, instead focusing on food security.

Speaking at the Gathering nature festival at Wild Ken Hill in north Norfolk, Juniper said: “Some of [this prime land] is under golf courses, so it is not only nature and other things.”

He said alongside food security “we also need to catch carbon, we also need to avoid flood risk. We also need to have places for healthy outdoor enjoyment and recreation, we need land for biodiversity and nature recovery, you need land for water infrastructure, and housing.

“There’s probably more housing going on land with high agricultural value than there is rewilding projects. And all of this stuff needs to be on the table at once.”

Tufnell, whose organisation represents 33,000 landowners, added that he hoped the new administration would listen to them, and that they realised nature recovery was the future.

He said: “We are meeting the secretary of state on Tuesday, and I will be asking the same questions that we have debated this morning. We do need to accelerate environment land management and we need to see a recovery in nature. It’s a totally false narrative that you can have food or you can have nature. You have to have both, and it’s perfectly possible.”

Some at the event were concerned that the government would try to cut the schemes. Lee Schofield, a senior site manager at RSPB Haweswater, said: “I am very concerned, so I’m not sure what else to say. It’s terrifying. And we just have to hope that what they may try to enact does not get through the checks and balances that are in place to stop us going backwards.”

Some conservationists are more optimistic about the prospect of nature recovery as they believe Liz Truss’s government may not be around for long – so might not be able to cause much damage to the schemes even if it wanted to.

Jake Fiennes, the head of conservation at the Holkham national nature reserve and author of Land Healer, said: “We have a government that potentially is only going to be around for 18 months. We have set this ball rolling. There’s environmental restoration already in place that is happening. I think that actually we are on a trajectory, and I think this momentum is not going to stop.”

Others agree; Benedict Macdonald, who works with landowners to rewild with the Real Wild Estates Company, said his clients disagreed with anti-nature comments from government figures.

He said: “The backlash against this government, especially from the landowners and farmers, will be from them saying: ‘Why are you standing in the way of me doing better things and handing down sustainable land to my children?’ And that’s a very powerful thing that I don’t think 18 months of government is going to sink.”

Juniper said: “I don’t see any reason why we need to be making any departures from those policies at the moment. I look forward to working with ministers on finding the very best ways forward during the months and years ahead.”

Britain’s poorest three million households will be as little as 63p a month better off under Liz Truss’s plans to cut national insurance contributions, while the richest will benefit by £150, according to economic analysis.

What a way to blow £30bn. – Owl

Matt Dathan www.thetimes.co.uk 

Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, is expected to make good on the prime minister’s pledge to scrap the increase in national insurance contributions in a mini budget on Friday.

Reversing the 1.25 per cent rise, which was only implemented in April, will be among a range of measures intended to stimulate economic growth and is expected to take effect as early as November.

Tom Waters, a senior research economist at the IFS, said people earning more than £100,000 would benefit the most, adding that there were more progressive ways to cut taxes, such as raising the threshold at which workers pay the basic rate of income tax. Kwarteng is said to be more persuaded towards cutting income tax by 1p rather than raising the threshold, which would still benefit the middle classes more than those on the minimum wage.

The move would bring forward plans announced by the government earlier this year to cut 1p off income tax from 2024, while Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, said it is expecting Kwarteng to go further by cutting 2p from basic rate income tax.

A final decision has not been taken, it is understood, while a reduction in the basic rate could be deferred until a formal budget, expected in November.

The chancellor is also expected to create 12 special investment zones across the UK that could offer workers a significant discount in employer national insurance contributions for staff employed within the zones. He will use Friday’s “fiscal event” to freeze corporation tax, with the total package of tax cuts expected to cost between £30 billion and £50 billion.

The Times revealed on Saturday that Kwarteng is reviewing fiscal rules that require debt to fall as a proportion of national income in 2024-25 in order to make way for the massive tax cuts.

There is also expected to be a package of deregulation to stimulate a “big bang 2.0”, which could include removing the cap on bankers’ bonuses, slashing environmental protections that have historically made it hard to build on certain types of land, and scrapping plans to prevent supermarkets advertising buy one get one free-type multibuy deals on junk food as part of the government’s obesity strategy.

However, analysis of Truss’s existing plans to cut NICs by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has revealed the extent to which the move will disproportionately benefit richer households compared to the poorest.

The richest tenth of households, who earn an average of £108,000, will save £1,800 on their annual tax bill, equivalent to £150 per month. In contrast, the poorest ten per cent of households, who on average earn £12,000, will save just £7.66 on their annual tax bill, which works out at just 63p per month or 14p per week.

Those in households with the average UK household income of £31,400 will save about £250 per year, or £20 per month. Households with an income of £55,000 will save about £700 per year, which is £58 per month, while households on £23,000 will benefit by about £73 per month, according to the IFS analysis.

Tom Waters, senior research economist at the IFS, said that while tax cuts would always benefit richer households over the poorest, there were fairer ways in which Truss could cut taxes.

He said: “Reversing the recent NICs rise would tend to benefit richer households more than poorer ones, even as a share of their income; the richest 10th, for example, would gain about £1,800 per year, or 1.7 per cent of their income, and the poorest tenth about £7 per year, less than 0.1 per cent of their income.

“That’s partly just a natural consequence of the existing tax system: those towards the bottom of the income distribution don’t pay much in direct taxes, and so it’s hard to cut taxes in a way that makes a big difference to them.

“That said, there are more progressive ways to cut tax — raising the income tax personal allowance, for example, which is currently due to be frozen in cash terms until March 2025. Tax cuts along these lines, including a NICs cut, would of course strengthen incentives for people to move into work.”

Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said the plans were a “tax giveaway to relatively high earners” and warned that they risked higher inflation. He said: “The worry that the Bank of England and Treasury officials will be that the move is more inflationary than a more targeted subsidy or tax cut at those on lower incomes. “Another £600 in the pocket of higher earners is likely to lead to more discretionary spending.

Wilson urged the Treasury to spend billions of pounds that was set aside but unused during the pandemic to stave off long-term unemployment, which never transpired, in order to attract tens of thousands of over-50s back into employment. Many over-50s left the labour market during or after the pandemic but are not counted as unemployed because they are not actively seeking work.

The Treasury only spent about £1.3 billion of the £2 billion set aside for the Kickstart programme, and the £1.3 billion it saved from the projected £2.7 billion it committed to the Restart programme – both designed to get people back into work.

He said: “There are other things we can do on policy to make our labour market work better and if we don’t get more people in the labour market, other decisions, such as tax cuts, will be counter-productive.

“One thing the government could do is reinvest the £10 billion set aside during the pandemic to stave off long-term unemployment that never transpired.”

No10 and the Treasury have said Friday’s “fiscal event” will be focussed on how to create economic growth. Kwarteng is “prepared to be bold” and “prepared to have the argument,” sources said, adding that the UK can “no longer carry on fighting over what’s left of the pie, which hasn’t been growing at all over the last few years”.

Their ambition is to “grow the pie for the prosperity of the country”. The mini budget is designed to deliver Truss’s pledges during the Conservative leadership election over the summer, with a full, formal budget planned for November, which will be accompanied by the usual forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the spending watchdog.

Total Costs tot up to £300,000

From the Western Morning News

South West Water has been ordered to pay almost £300,000 in fines and costs for supplying unfit drinking water in Devon.

The Exeter-based company admitted one in charge in a prosecution brought by the Drinking Water Inspectorate.

South West Water apologised for what it described as an “isolated incident” in 2018 and said it was caused by a naturally occurring algal bloom on Exmoor’s Wistlandpound reservoir, in part due to a hot and dry summer.

The regulator told the court that between June 19 and August 21, 2018, South West Water supplied water that was “unfit for human consumption” at Bratton Fleming and Horedown, near Barnstaple.

Customers at the time reported that the water was discoloured and had an “earthy” or “mouldy” taste. South West Water said it was not harmful to health and told people to chill the water in the fridge or add a slice of lemon to improve the taste.

The company admitted the offence and was fined £233,333 at Plymouth Magistrate’s Court last Tuesday. It was also ordered to pay a victim services surcharge of £170, and costs of £60,320.73, bringing the total penalty to £293,823.73.

A spokesperson for South West Water said after the hearing: “We deeply apologise to our customers affected by this incident in 2018, which was caused by an algal bloom on the reservoir. We accept that unpalatable water, even when safe to drink, is absolutely unacceptable, and this was reflected in our guilty plea at the earliest opportunity. Since then, we have made a number of major investments of up to £1 million to the site to reduce the risks of such events occurring again.”

The company said the problem had not happened again due to the action it took afterwards. The issue was caused by what it called “naturally occurring scientific compounds [algal bloom]” at “unprecedented levels”, caused in part by “an unusually dry and hot summer”.

The water from the reservoir made it through to the local water treatment works and eventually to drinking water supplies. South West Water says it did not impact the safety of the water, but affected the taste and smell which led to customer complaints and an investigation by the Drinking Waters Inspectorate.

The company says that, since 2018, it has made “major interventions and investments in the site”, costing up to £1 million. The measures include installing a large reservoir mixing system in 2019, which it says helps to maintain water quality by keeping the water fully mixed and easier to treat.

The company says it continues to review its drinking water safety plans continuously to assess new risks and to prioritise investment.

The Wistlandpound reservoir has a capacity of 1,550 megalitres and water is taken for treatment to supply customers in Devon, including Ilfracombe and Barnstaple.

The Environment Agency downgraded the company to the lowest rating of one star for its environmental performance in July. Water companies have come under fire from campaigners over water quality in the rivers and seas, including the level of storm overflows of untreated sewage which are legally allowed to prevent flooding after exceptionally heavy downpours.

BA.4.6, a subvariant of the omicron COVID variant which has been quickly gaining traction in the US, is now confirmed to be spreading in the UK.

Manal Mohammed theconversation.com 

The latest briefing document on COVID variants from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) noted that during the week beginning August 14, BA.4.6 accounted for 3.3% of samples in the UK. It has since grown to make up around 9% of sequenced cases.

Similarly, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, BA.4.6 now accounts for more than 9% of recent cases across the US. The variant has also been identified in several other countries around the world.

So what do we know about BA.4.6, and should we be worried? Let’s take a look at the information we have so far.

BA.4.6 is a descendant of the BA.4 variant of omicron. BA.4 was first detected in January 2022 in South Africa and has since spread around the world alongside the BA.5 variant.

It is not entirely clear how BA.4.6 has emerged, but it’s possible it could be a recombinant variant. Recombination happens when two different variants of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) infect the same person, at the same time.

While BA.4.6 will be similar to BA.4 in many ways, it carries a mutation to the spike protein, a protein on the surface of the virus which allows it to enter our cells. This mutation, R346T, has been seen in other variants and is associated with immune evasion, meaning it helps the virus to escape antibodies acquired from vaccination and prior infection.

Severity, infectiousness and immune evasion

Fortunately, omicron infections generally cause less serious illness, and we’ve seen fewer deaths with omicron than with earlier variants. We would expect this to apply to BA.4.6 too. Indeed, there have been no reports yet that this variant is causing more severe symptoms.

But we also know that omicron subvariants tend to be more transmissible than previous variants. BA.4.6 appears to be even better at evading the immune system than BA.5, the currently dominant variant. Although this information is based on a preprint (a study that is yet to be peer-reviewed), other emerging data supports this.

According to the UKHSA’s briefing, early estimates suggest BA.4.6 has a 6.55% relative fitness advantage over BA.5 in England. This indicates that BA.4.6 replicates more quickly in the early stages of infection and has a higher growth rate than BA.5.

The relative fitness advantage of BA.4.6 is considerably smaller than that of BA.5 over BA.2, which was 45% to 55%.

The University of Oxford has reported that people who had received three doses of Pfizer’s original COVID vaccine produce fewer antibodies in response to BA.4.6 than to BA.4 or BA.5. This is worrying because it suggests that COVID vaccines might be less effective against BA.4.6.

The capacity of BA.4.6 to evade immunity may however be addressed to a degree by the new bivalent boosters, which target omicron specifically, alongside the original strain of SARS-CoV-2. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, one preprint study shows that BA.4.6 evades protection from Evusheld, an antibody therapy designed to protect people who are immunocompromised and don’t respond as well to COVID vaccines.

Vaccination is key

The emergence of BA.4.6 and other new variants is concerning. It shows the virus is still very much with us, and is mutating to find new ways to overcome our immune response from vaccination and previous infections.

We know people who have had COVID previously can contract the virus again, and this has been particularly true of omicron. In some cases, subsequent episodes can be worse.

But vaccination continues to offer good protection against severe disease, and is still the best weapon we have to fight COVID. The recent approval of bivalent boosters is good news. Beyond this, developing multivalent coronavirus vaccines that target multiple variants could provide even more durable protection.

A recent study showed that a multivalent coronavirus vaccine administered through the nose elicited a strong immune response against the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, as well as two variants of concern, in mouse models.

Close monitoring of new variants including BA.4.6 is pressing, as they could lead to the next wave of COVID pandemic. For the public, it will pay to stay cautious, and comply with any public health measures in place to prevent the spread of what remains a very contagious virus.

Liz Truss is planning to levy lower tax rates and strip out regulations in certain parts of the country picked by the government.

Readers, you need to get your heads around the implications of this extension to the “freeports” that Boris Johnson announced.

As with freeports these low tax, low regulation investment zones will probably end up relocating, rather than creating, economic activity and jobs. They are unlikely to lead to the sort of growth transformation the Truss Government needs by the election due in January 2025. It’s a beggar my neighbour strategy.

The rules surrounding these zones will be open to “gaming”. They are likely, therefore, to be accompanied by some significant unintended consequences. The ability of the affluent in society to “relocate” by outbidding local people on a whim, is an example. The rise in second homes we see locally is driven by a desire to have a holiday home in more scenic parts of the country. Seeking residency in an area to reduce personal tax liability might provide a similarly strong motive for a second/alternative residence.

If these zones are a natural extension of freeports, consider this.

Dartmoor and the South Hams are already included in the Plymouth freeport area, so obviously would be included in any “Plymouth Investment Zone”.

Is Liz Truss going to replicate the Northern Ireland border issue all over the country as we move in and out of each “investment zone”, between the “low tax regimes” and “high tax regimes”? Sounds divisive to Owl.

Liz Truss to cut taxes in certain parts of the country picked by the government

Jon Stone www.independent.co.uk

Liz Truss is planning to levy lower tax rates and strip out regulations in certain parts of the country picked by the government.

The prime minister is reportedly planning to badge the areas “investment zones” – and will claim that the approach could boost economic growth.

Businesses based in the handpicked regions will be able to ignore some environmental regulations and pay lower rates of tax.

And workers living there could pay personal income taxes and national insurance at reduced rates, the government-supporting Sun On Sunday newspaper reports.

Details of the plans are still said to be being worked out, but an announcement could come as early as chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng‘s emergency budget on Friday.

The plans to apply the tax cuts to particular areas of the country only may raise eyebrows because the government has previously come under fire for playing political favourites.

A previous policy, the Towns Fund, selected areas to benefit from a £1 billion pot of investment – but this was mostly funnelled into Tory areas.

An inquiry by parliament’s spending watchdog, the Public Accounts Committee, concluded last year that the selection process to benefit from the fund was “not impartial” and decisions were “politically motivated”.

39 of the 45 places to receive the first round of funding were represented by Tory MPs.

It is not clear which areas will benefit from the “investment zone” tax cuts or how they will be picked.

Mr Kwarteng, who was appointed by Ms Truss earlier this month, is set to use Friday’s emergency budget to reverse Rishi Sunak’s rises in corporation tax and national insurance contributions.

Other policies are expected to include lifting the cap on bankers bonuses, which limits payouts to twice a banker’s annual salary. The policy was intended to reduce the risk-taking associated with bonuses incentives, and so reduce the risk of another financial crisis.

12 places earmarked for this status

Andrew Sparrow www.theguardian.com carries a bit more detail:

Planning regulations will be relaxed in up to 12 places earmarked for this status, and taxes will be cut to incentivise investment.

The West Midlands, the Thames estuary, the Tees Valley, West Yorkshire and Norfolk are among the places where the new zones might be sited. According to the plans set out by Truss in the summer, in each area there will be a central region, where regulations and planning rules will be eased to encourage industrial, commercial and residential development, and a periphery where the planning rules will be streamlined for housing.

Liz Truss’s energy plans show the UK has effectively abandoned net-zero targets just three years after its world-leading commitment to cutting emissions, the government’s former chief scientific adviser has said.

Another example of the Tories demonstrating that they don’t see themselves in power for much longer. – Owl

Harry Cockburn www.independent.co.uk 

A major new fossil fuels campaign, including lifting the ban on fracking and expanding drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea, has already been announced by the new prime minister’s administration.

But the drive for more oil and gas production was “completely at odds” with the UK’s legally binding net-zero target, said Sir David King, head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, who was chief scientific adviser to the government between 2000 and 2007.

Furthermore, it would bring large quantities of greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels to the market directly ahead of the 2050 deadline for reaching zero, he told The Independent.

He said the plans, announced last week by the prime minister’s new energy secretary, Jacob-Rees Mogg, were “extremely alarming”.

“We’re looking at a situation where the crisis is with us here today,” he said. “But we don’t recognise that when we say ‘let’s go ahead and start new fracking operations in this country’.

“It beggars belief. What it seems to show is that the leadership in the government does not understand the nature of the climate crisis.”

Mr Rees-Mogg, who has previously dismissed climate science as “alarmism”, said in a video on his second day in office that “we are lifting the moratorium on fracking. We will extract every ounce of oil and gas from the North Sea.”

During Ms Truss’s leadership campaign, she derided the role that renewable energy increasingly plays in the energy system, in particular solar power, which has become the “cheapest electricity in history”, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

But Sir David, who is the founder and chair of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge, warned that the government’s revival of fossil fuels could backfire rapidly.

He said: “I fully agree with what the IEA is saying, which is ‘do not invest in new oil and gas recovery’.

“If we do invest in new oil and gas recovery, it will take a minimum of five years to get to the marketplace and more like 10-15 years, which is the average.

“In which case, they’re not dealing with the current crisis at all, and instead are investing in an operation that is likely to become a stranded asset.

“Quite frankly, it’s a policy that hasn’t been thought through in terms of climate change or in terms of the current climate crisis. It doesn’t attack either [issue].”

His assessment of the government’s position has been echoed by leading campaigning groups.

Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, told The Independent: “Sir David King speaks the truth. Most sensible countries realise that the economically rational course is to drive rapidly for zero emissions, because it boosts the whole economy and tackles the climate crisis and the cost of living crisis in one fell swoop.

“Truss’s current energy plans will do nothing for the economy any time soon, and will in fact create substantial stranded asset risks.

“Further, they accelerate climate breakdown, contributing to the deadly heatwaves and floods we see around the world, and do nothing to impact the soaring costs of energy that will leave households and the national overdraft in trouble for years to come.

“If Truss and Rees-Mogg continue on this course, it begs the question – whose interests are they serving?”

Sir David suggested the leadership of the country was using Russia’s war in Ukraine as an opportunity to expand the use of fossil fuels – even though doing so failed to address either the climate crisis or the energy crisis.

He said: “The immediate consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war is that energy prices have gone shooting up. The response to that [should be] to build more renewable energy – we can use an extension of an already successful operation.

“The opposite is to say ‘let’s use this as an opportunity to develop our oil and gas reserves’ – using the war as an opportunity to do this, knowing it has nothing to do with managing the short-term problems of the war.

“All of that indicates massive cynicism at the top of government. What they’re saying is ‘we’re not going to be in government in 2050, but we don’t believe in the net-zero target’.”

Friends of the Earth’s head of policy, Mike Childs, told The Independent that Sir David was “right to raise the alarm about the government’s enthusiasm for fracking and drilling more gas and oil”.

He said: “At best, it’s difficult to see how this enthusiasm for new fossil fuels is compatible with the prime minister’s commitment to deliver on the UK’s climate targets.

“At worst, it’s a sign that the new government is more interested in placating wealthy fossil fuel lobbyists than it is in tackling the mounting climate emergency and addressing the energy crisis for good.”

Energy experts have repeatedly called on the government to expand support for renewable energy technology and storage, implement a national insulation programme, invest in rolling out more heat pumps and halt investment in fossil fuel programmes.

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy did not respond to The Independent’s request for comment.

According to Vince Cable in his new book “How to be a politician” there are two ways for an ambitious MP to get on:

Make some brilliant eye-catching intervention that gets everyone talking about you.

The other more common route is obsequiousness. 

Looks like you have already chosen your route – Owl

Seven days is all the parliamentary time this Tory Government thinks is worth devoting to debating the problems this country is facing. Three of these will be next week to enable Liz Truss to conduct her “special fiscal operation”.

Could it be she wants to avoid scrutiny?

If the planned parliamentary schedule is followed, from 5:30 pm on Thursday July 21 to 2:30 pm on Monday 17 October, the House of Commons will have sat for nine days. These include the two days of special sittings to pay tribute to the late Queen. 

(That’s seven days devoted to running the country in what the rest of us would consider to be twelve working weeks in round numbers)

Meanwhile all the effort seems to be devoted to abstruse debates on subjects only of interest to her right wing such as:

Should she prioritise effort on: cutting taxes, oxford commas, and bankers bonuses.

Or following the deputy Prime Ministers, Thérèse Coffey, edict:

Should she prioritise effort on: cutting taxes, oxford commas and bankers bonuses.

(Do they know what they are doing? – Owl)