The party of the 1 percent (chance): Though Labour has been consistently riding 20 points clear of its rivals, Tory strategists still insist the polls will narrow dramatically in the heat of the election campaign. But Curtice says the chances of a Tory turnaround are fractional, adding that Keir Starmer’s party also stands a far better chance of forming a government in the event no one wins a majority. “The Labour Party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons,” he said. Happy Easter! London Politico Playbook

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28 Mar 2024

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“I see no crisis” just raise productivity 5% to meet the challenge. Millionaire Sunak on local government funding

What bubble is our Prime Minister living in?

Is he totally detached from the everyday life of ordinary people? – Owl

Sunak denies ‘crisis’ in local government funding despite bankruptcy warnings

Pippa Crerar www.theguardian.com

Rishi Sunak has denied there is a “crisis” in local government funding despite warnings that well-run councils are on the brink of bankruptcy and local services at risk without more support.

The prime minister admitted that councils faced “challenges”, in particular with inflation, which has significantly outpaced recent cash injections, at the cross-party liaison committee.

The Local Government Association has warned that councils are starting this financial year in a “precarious position” financially, and having to scale back or close a wide range of local services.

It has calculated that English town halls need an extra £4bn over two years just to maintain services at current levels, or risk a financial crisis, against a backdrop of significant spending cuts since the Conservatives came to power 14 years ago.

Clive Betts, the chair of the levelling up, housing and communities committee, asked whether there was a crisis, to which Sunak responded: “I wouldn’t characterise it that way.

“Of course there are challenges, particularly with inflation, which is why … the overriding economic priority of the government was to bring inflation down because that will help local councils with their finances too, as well as helping families up and down the country.

“And if you look at what’s happened from central government to local government over this parliament, since 2019, the grant in cash terms has more than doubled.” However, Betts pointed out this was in the context of a 30% cut in councils’ spending power since 2010.

Tuesday’s committee appearance was Sunak’s last before local council elections on 2 May, in which the Tories are expected to face a wipeout.

In a wide-ranging session, the prime minister promised that the public could “safely assume” the pensions triple lock would remain in place throughout the next parliament if the Tories win the election, after Jeremy Hunt confirmed it would be in the party’s manifesto.

The triple lock has become a hallmark of successive Tory governments since it was announced in 2010 but there has been a debate about its long-term future due to its costs. Sunak, however, insisted it was affordable.

Sunak suggested that while public spending would continue to grow in real terms, public services must become 5% more productive. “I do think it’s right that we focus on productivity to get more out of the investment we’re putting in to public services,” he said.

“To give just one statistic – public sector productivity is around 5% lower today than it was before the pandemic. So, no one is asking anything heroic; it’s just a return to where we were. Obviously the private sector has managed that.”

There was a heated row over the government’s flagship Rwanda deportation scheme, with Sunak objecting to the Scottish National party MP Joanna Cherry’s question about whether he was proud of telling Tory MPs to vote against an amendment preventing Afghans who had supported British forces from being deported to Rwanda.

“I really disagree with that characterisation,” he said, adding that in light of recent debates in parliament about MPs’ intimidation, “I actually think characterising like that is deeply unhelpful.”

The prime minister refused to say if the government had finally found an airline willing to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda, suggesting it would be subject to commercial confidentiality.

Responding to other questions, Sunak declined to give a date for when defence spending would hit the 2.5% of GDP target. He also said the UK would continue to push Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, particularly by land.

He acknowledged concerns that the UK had backed the UN security council’s Gaza ceasefire resolution even though it did not explicitly condemn Hamas’s actions. But he added that “whilst not perfect”, the UN’s position was “close enough” to the UK’s position that it should support it.

In a lighter moment, the prime minister gently mocked his predecessor Liz Truss’s claim that the “deep state” had brought her down. Asked whether he was a member of the deep state, he replied: “I probably wouldn’t tell you if I was.”

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28 Mar 2024

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South West Water make bold assertions – do they stand scrutiny?

“The increase in the storm overflow spills this year can be accounted for by the amount of named storms and weather warnings in 2023.” (South West Water) .

“Can be accounted for” – Is an assertion that needs detailed justification.

Average rainfall in 2003 was unexceptional. As Feargal Sharkey keeps saying, and said so forcefully yesterday on BBC’ ‘s “World an One”, water companies can legally only discharge overflows in “exceptional” conditions. Named storms are not necessarily exceptional.

Increased housing development without the concomitant increase in capacity to carry away and treat the waste water is also a significant underlying factor. (Increased connections increases revenue.)

“We were one of the first water companies to have all our storm overflows monitored meaning we know exactly what is happening, when and where, allowing us to target investment and make changes where it matters most.” (South West Water)

But what about the unmonitored emergency overflows? See what comes out of them here.

And do they really know what is going on? These freedom of information requests suggest not.

“We will also be the first water company to meet the Government target of less than 10 spills per overflow, per year – a decade ahead of target.” (South West Water)

What evidence exists to back up such an assertion, are they just targets? We have yet to see any detailed, funded, plans.

Anyway this addresses only spill frequency, there is also the matter of quantity. You could reduce the spill frequency to only once a year just by leaving the sluice gates open! – Owl

Sewage spills from storm overflows in the South West in 2023

Adam Manning www.exmouthjournal.co.uk

New figures from the Environment Agency show South West Water spilled sewage into the sea for 530,737 hours this year.

The figures relate to England’s storm overflows, which dump untreated sewage into rivers and the sea, usually during heavy rainfall to stop sewers backing up and which are now all monitored by water companies.

The number of hours of sewage spills from monitored storm overflows for South West Water: was 530,737 hours in 2023. Up from 290,271 hours in 2022.

The average duration of sewage spills from monitored storm overflows for South West Water: was 9.1 hours. Up from 7.7 hours in 2022.

The total number of sewage spills from monitored storm overflows for South West Water was 58,249. Up from 37,649 in 2022.

The average spills per monitored storm overflow was 43.4 up from 28.5 in 2022.

South West Water said: “We care about our 860m of coastline, our regions 100% bathing water quality, which we have successfully maintained for 3 consecutive years and protecting the environment now and in the future.

“We are serious about tackling storm overflows and change of this scale takes time, ambition, and increased investment – and that is why we are investing £850m in our region over 2 years.

“The increase in the storm overflow spills this year can be accounted for by the amount of named storms and weather warnings in 2023. It’s clear we need to redesign our systems, which we are already doing.

“We will also be the first water company to meet the Government target of less than 10 spills per overflow, per year – a decade ahead of target.”

Figures published by the Environment Agency show there were 464,056 spills in 2023, up 54% from 301,091 in 2022, which the organisation said was partly due to England experiencing its sixth-wettest year on record.

The company behind South West Water and Bristol Water has abandoned its ambition to reach a four-star environmental performance rating in 2024, blaming ‘current operating conditions’. South West Water delays environmental performance target

The latest data shows nationally, the duration of sewage spills had more than doubled from 1,754,921 hours hours in 2022, to 3,606,170 hours in 2023.

Both the frequency and duration of spills were also up on 2020 levels, which saw comparable amounts of rainfall, although the number of monitored storm overflows had also increased in that time.

United Utilities had the highest average number of sewage spills per storm overflow of any water company in England last year, at 45.4, followed by South West Water (43.4) and Yorkshire Water (35.9).

South West Water has become the focus of attention in East Devon over the past few years with environmental campaign group ESCAPE Exmouth being very vocal on the issue.

Water companies say they are investing in tackling pollution from storm overflows and sewage infrastructure, but have faced criticism over profits, bonuses and the way the businesses are managed.

Beaches rated as excellent can be hit by pollution from storm overflows after bad weather, causing warnings against swimming to be issued on multiple occasions. This is the case in Exmouth where the beach is often classed as ‘not safe to swim’ after heavy rain.

Data also show none of England’s rivers are in good overall health and (23%) are classed as in poor or bad overall condition, according to an assessment based on the combination of their chemical pollution and “ecological” state, which measures the health of aquatic plants, fish and insects.

All English rivers are failing on chemical health and just 15% of stretches of waterway are in a good ecological state, according to a recent report from the Rivers Trust based on official data gathered in 2022.

Figures from the Environment Department (Defra) show that wastewater is responsible for 36% of pollution affecting rivers and lakes, while 40% is down to runoff of pesticides, fertilisers, slurry and soil from farming.

Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 11 March

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Tories now the party of the 1 percent

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“I see no crisis” just raise productivity 5% to meet the challenge. Millionaire Sunak on local government funding

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South West Water make bold assertions – do they stand scrutiny?

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