Water Fit Live

A gold standard constituency by constituency poll from Electoral calculus indicates that the new Honiton & Sidmouth constituency, unlike Exmouth & Exeter East, is likely to be a straight fight between two former MPs: Richard Foord for the LibDems and Simon Jupp for the Conservatives.

Richard Foord is currently predicted to have 45% of the vote and a 74% chance of winning.

Jupp is currently trailing by ten points and is predicted as being ahead in only 4 of the 26 wards. He is considered as having only a 26% chance of winning.

In February 2023 Simon Jupp announced he was abandoning 78% of his current constituents as he became the Tory candidate for the new seat of Honiton and Sidmouth. 

He claimed that Sidmouth was where his home was.

Many of us thought he was on the chicken run, opting for what he thought was the safer seat.

If he is doing a “chicken run” then it looks like he has failed to impress his new constituents. His social media shows he has little feel for what local people want or connection to them.

A gold standard constituency by constituency poll from Electoral calculus gives the Conservatives only a 53% chance of winning the new Exmouth & Exeter East seat on a mere 22% of the vote. 

Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems is already only 3 points behind in second place and his campaign has hardly begun.

The Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties are predicted to command 56% of the vote (Reform are on 11%). [Numbers rounded]

Labour are currently claiming that only they can win but these numbers don’t back this claim.

In fact, detailed analysis would place Labour voters in a majority in only one ward, that of Pinhoe.

Labour is only given a 12% of winning.

Will a divided majority opposition hand the seat to the fifth of the voters who vote Tory?

Voters, what do you really want to achieve? – Owl

(Predicted turnout 66%)