A gold standard constituency by constituency poll from Electoral calculus gives the Conservatives only a 53% chance of winning the new Exmouth & Exeter East seat on a mere 22% of the vote. 

Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems is already only 3 points behind in second place and his campaign has hardly begun.

The Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties are predicted to command 56% of the vote (Reform are on 11%). [Numbers rounded]

Labour are currently claiming that only they can win but these numbers don’t back this claim.

In fact, detailed analysis would place Labour voters in a majority in only one ward, that of Pinhoe.

Labour is only given a 12% of winning.

Will a divided majority opposition hand the seat to the fifth of the voters who vote Tory?

Voters, what do you really want to achieve? – Owl

(Predicted turnout 66%)