A gold standard constituency by constituency poll from Electoral calculus indicates that the new Honiton & Sidmouth constituency, unlike Exmouth & Exeter East, is likely to be a straight fight between two former MPs: Richard Foord for the LibDems and Simon Jupp for the Conservatives.

Richard Foord is currently predicted to have 45% of the vote and a 74% chance of winning.

Jupp is currently trailing by ten points and is predicted as being ahead in only 4 of the 26 wards. He is considered as having only a 26% chance of winning.

In February 2023 Simon Jupp announced he was abandoning 78% of his current constituents as he became the Tory candidate for the new seat of Honiton and Sidmouth. 

He claimed that Sidmouth was where his home was.

Many of us thought he was on the chicken run, opting for what he thought was the safer seat.

If he is doing a “chicken run” then it looks like he has failed to impress his new constituents. His social media shows he has little feel for what local people want or connection to them.