StoptheVote.org, a major tactical voting site, has TAKEN DOWN its recommendation of a Labour vote in Exmouth & East Exeter. It now says its tactical advice is ‘COMING SOON: We’re waiting until more polling is released to confirm our advice here.’

seatonmatters.org

It explains: ‘We’ve manually set advice for this constituency because as an Independent was in second place last time, it is not yet clear where those supporters will go’. In other words, the old advice was based on automatically applying national trends without proper local data.

Meanwhile Electoral Calculus, the site which takes into account local information, estimates that the race is incredibly close between the Tory (32.6%), Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems (29.8) and Labour (21.4). It has reduced the chance of the Tory winning to 54%, increased the Lib Dems’ to 34%, and puts Labour’s chance on 10%.

Some facts on this constituency:

1. 78 per cent of the old East Devon seat is in it – but some extra Exeter wards have been added.
2. In the old East Devon seat, the Lib Dems were always second until 2010 – Labour were never in contention.
3. Claire Wright (Independent) took over as the main challenger in 2015, 2017 and 2019, squeezing the Lib Dem, Labour and Green votes down to a very small level.
4. In 2019, Claire got 40.4%, Labour 4.5%, Lib Dems 2.8%, Greens 1.1%. Claire is supporting Paul Arnott.
5. In local elections in the new constituency in 2023-4, Lib Dems have gained 39.5% of the votes, Labour 13%, Greens 6% – while Tories got 37.5% – confirming that this is a tight Tory:Lib Dem race.
6. Labour have just confirmed that the constituency is NOT a battleground seat for them – their members are advised to canvass in the nearest battleground seat in Plymouth.
7. Labour’s 2019 candidate has left the party and is standing as an Independent, so their vote will be further split.

Rishi Sunak says sorry for leaving D-day events early to record TV interview

(In order to defend claims he had made about Sir Keir Starmer’s tax plans).

Rishi Sunak has apologised for leaving D-day anniversary events early to take part in a TV interview, admitting it was “a mistake not to stay in France longer”.

Aletha Adu www.theguardian.com 

The prime minister had been heavily criticised for allowing the foreign secretary, David Cameron, to take his place in the late afternoon ceremony at Omaha beach on Thursday, while he left Normandy to do a prerecorded ITV segment.

On Friday, the prime minister said on X: “I care deeply about veterans and have been honoured to represent the UK at a number of events in Portsmouth and France over the past two days and to meet those who fought so bravely.

“After the conclusion of the British event in Normandy, I returned back to the UK. On reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer – and I apologise.”

Conservative activists reacted with fury at the sight of Cameron standing alongside the French, German and US leaders, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden, , with one saying it had left them questioning whether to “bother to continue campaigning”.

Sunak was forced to apologise after the ITV presenter Paul Brand confirmed on News at Ten that Sunak returned from Normandy to speak to him. Brand said ITV was interviewing all of the party leaders and had been working to secure a date with Sunak for some time. “Today was the slot they offered us,” he said. “We don’t know why.”

Opposition politicians criticised the prime minister on Friday morning, saying he had “brought shame” on the office.

Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth said: “Yesterday’s D-day commemorations were about remembering the bravery of all those who serve our country. In choosing to prioritise his own vanity TV appearances over our veterans, Rishi Sunak has shown what is most important to him. It is yet more desperation, yet more chaos, and yet more dreadful judgment from this out-of-touch prime minister.”

The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, said: “One of the greatest privileges of the office of prime minister is to be there to honour those who served, yet Rishi Sunak abandoned them on the beaches of Normandy. He has brought shame to that office and let down our country.

“I am thinking right now of all those veterans and their families he left behind and the hurt they must be feeling. It is a total dereliction of duty and shows why this Conservative government just has to go.”

The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, posted on X that Sunak “could not even be bothered to attend” the Omaha Beach event.

One Tory activist said: “Lots of us are asking each other what’s the point, across associations. He allowed a former PM to get some pics next to Biden in his place. Why should we bother to continue campaigning, knocking on hundreds of doors when Sunak seems to be doing all he can to completely ruin our chance of losing in a way that’s just about tolerable.”

However, a Conservative source played down the diplomatic impact of the prime minister’s absence from the event, as they said Sunak would see Macron, Biden, Scholz and other key leaders at the G7 summit in Puglia, Italy, which starts next Thursday.

Sunak did attend an event on Thursday morning at Ver-sur-Mer, in Normandy, which was also attended by Macron, King Charles and Queen Camilla.

Sunak’s apology came minutes after a junior Conservative minister defended his absence. David Johnston told Times Radio: “As children’s minister I don’t exactly know what the prime minister’s diary looks like.

“But I do know, because we saw him at the various commemorations this week, that he has been paying tribute to our veterans and marking the D-day commemorations and I think everybody can see he’s very committed to that.”

Tory pledge not to reform ‘increasingly absurd’ council tax system in England blocks levelling up, says IFS

Andrew Sparrow www.theguardian.com 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published a damning assessment of the Conservative party’s decision to rule out reform of the way council tax operates in England in the next parliament. (See 9.28am.)

In the briefing, David Phillips, an associate director at the IFS, said:

The new ‘family home tax guarantee’ [the Tory term for its new pledge] would mean perpetuating the increasingly absurd situation whereby the council tax that households pay is based on the value of their property relative to others in England on 1 April 1991 – a third of a century ago, when Mikhail Gorbachev was President of the Soviet Union and Chesney Hawkes topped the charts with The One and Only.

Since this one and only valuation of houses, values have increased by massively different amounts around the country, meaning that at least half are now effectively in the ‘wrong band’. Households in the north and Midlands are often in too high a band – and pay too much – while those in London and its environs too low a band – and pay too little – compared to what they would under a modernised tax. In other words, in its current form council tax works against levelling up.

And here are three charts from the briefing that prove this point.

This one shows how people living in low-value homes have to pay much more in council tax, as a proportion of the value of their home, then people in expensive properties.

Cost of council tax as % of value of your home 

This shows how, if council tax was now based on current property values, instead of 1990 values, people in most of the north of England and the Midlands would gain, because their homes have not risen in value over the last 30 years as much as properties in the south. But people in London would face a particularly big increase, and other people in the south or east of England might pay more too.

Winners and losers from potential council tax revaluation

But the IFS is also in favour of reforming the system to make council tax proportional to the value of property. It set out the case for this in a report four years ago and this chart show how around seven out of 10 households – all but the richer ones – would gain from this approach.

Winners and losers from making council tax proportional to value

Lucie Heath inews.co.uk

Today the Liberal Democrats become the first political party in Britain to sign up to i’s blueprint to save the nation’s rivers.