Electoral Calculus was the only MRP poll to predicted that Claire Wright and Simon Jupp were neck and neck in 2019. We have had some pretty wild constituency by constituency predictions this time (including a Reform win).

Owl intends to post more cautionary analysis of these from Martin Shaw in due course. 

National trends

Nationally, as we near election day, there appears to be a consistent trend for both Labour and the Conservatives to be losing support with Reform and the Lib Dems gaining. Labour, however, maintains a massive lead over the Tories.

Two days ago the Telegraph was predicting Tories and Lib Dems neck and neck to form His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition 53 seats to 50.

Electoral Calculus latest predictions for Exmouth and Exeter East

Latest prediction is: Paul Arnott, Lib Dem on 30% and David Reed, Conservative, on 29.2%.

Labour trails on 17.8%

In Owl’s opinion this MRP poll is worth taking seriously. It continues a consistent trend from Electoral Calculus predicting the Lib Dems gaining ground in this new constituency.

[ ‘MIN’ party here refers to Dan Wilson (ind). OTH refers to Peter Faithfull]