Electoral Calculus continues to put Richard Foord ahead with 37% of the vote. But his lead is very much dependent on a sharply divided right wing. Unlike Exmouth & Exeter East, Reform is predicted to be polling on a par, if not ahead, of Simon Jupp. This looks potentially volatile to Owl

Turnout is predicted around 70% (compared to 57% in Exmouth & Exeter East), reflecting the much greater observed interest in this constituency. Low turnout usually benefits Conservatives with their strong tribal loyalty.

Betting on the election is very much in the news, so Owl has been checking out the odds for Exmouth & Exeter East to see what the betting community makes of this first past the post race.

Not that Owl was considering a bit of a flutter, you understand.

This confirms the view, emerging from the polls, that this is seen as a two horse race.

The most popular bets seem to give the Lib Dems, at the moment, a bit of a “nose” over the Tories and confirms that Labour is very much one of the outsiders.

[For those like Owl unfamiliar with the betting scene and wanting to convert odds to implied probabilities here is an online calculator.]

The most popular bets being cast at the moment (in descending order of bets being placed) are:

Lib Dems (13/8)

Reform (10/1)

Labour (10/1)

Conservatives (15/8)

Green (300/1)