The next government must give Windermere greater protection from sewage pollution, campaigners including the naturalist Chris Packham and the comedian Paul Whitehouse have urged in an open letter to all party leaders.

Sandra Laville www.theguardian.com 

The campaign group Save Windermere, which organised the letter, says the lake has huge ecological significance, is home to rare and protected species and brings in about £750m to the economy. But the signatories, who include the Wildlife Trust, the countryside charity the CPRE and WildFish, say it is being degraded by sewage pollution from United Utilities treatment plants.

As party leaders prepare to publish their manifestos this week, Matt Staniek, the founder of Save Windermere, said greater protection for the lake was urgently needed to make sure it was looked after for future generations forever. “This is not ideological, it’s non-contentious, and it is absolutely necessary to save Windermere whilst also setting an example for the treatment of our freshwater and our natural world on a national level,” he said in the letter.

The protections for the lake are contained in the EU-derived water framework directive, but Staniek said the system failed to address the ecological, cultural and economic stability of the lake and the surrounding area despite its national significance.

The letter says: “We urge you to commit with haste to granting greater environmental protection for England’s largest lake. The mechanism used to achieve this must have legal underpinning, whilst current legislation must also be enforced. Success will be defined as the long-term recovery of the lake, with it returning to, or as close as possible to, its natural oligotrophic state.”

Last month it emerged that millions of litres of raw sewage had been illegally pumped into Windermere in February, and that United Utilities had failed to stop the pollution of it for 10 hours. It did not report the incident to the Environment Agency until 13 hours after it started.

Suspected illegal sewage dumping into the lake also took place more than 70 times in 2022, according to analysis by the academic Prof Peter Hammond, and in June that year a serious pollution incident in a beck feeding the lake left hundreds of fish dead.

The letter says Windermere has been victim to decades of pollution and exploitation resulting from inadequate investment and substandard regulation, leaving the lake unadaptable to our changing climate.

“Over the last year alone, we have seen unprecedented rainfall which has increased sewage discharging into the lake,” it says. “This, combined with the threat of drought in the summer months, leaves our lake in a precarious position and at risk of extensive algal blooms which, at worse, can cause mass fish kills and leave its waters potentially toxic to the general public.”

A United Utilities spokesperson said that phosphorus levels in the lake had been steadily declining since the early 1990s, while the lake’s four bathing waters all consistently achieved the highest “Excellent” status. “Since 2020 United Utilities has halved the amount of phosphorus that is now entering the lake from our own processes. However, the factors affecting water quality in Windermere are complex and, without targeted action by multiple sectors, we will not see the changes we all want.”

The company said it did not recognise the Hammond figures. Regarding the February pollution, it said: “This incident was caused by an unexpected fault on the third party telecoms cable network in the area, which United Utilities was not notified about and which affected both the primary system and United Utilities’ backup. As soon as we discovered this fault was affecting the Glebe Road pumping station, our engineers took urgent steps to resolve the situation and we informed the Environment Agency within an hour of the pollution being confirmed.”

Want to know what’s wrong with Britain? – Owl

The boss of South West Water’s owner has received a pay increase of £300,000, weeks after an outbreak of diarrhoea caused by a parasite in Devon’s water supply.

Jasper Jolly www.theguardian.com

Susan Davy, the chief executive of Pennon Group, was awarded £860,000 in total pay for the latest financial year, up from £543,000 the year before, according to accounts published on Monday.

The increase came despite Pennon executives agreeing to forgo bonuses for this year in recognition of the widespread outrage over sewage dumping.

Britain’s water companies have been under intense scrutiny in recent years over their environmental performance, amid disgust over the amount of raw sewage flowing into the UK’s rivers and seas.

Those concerns have been particularly relevant for customers of South West Water in Devon, after the outbreak last month of the parasite cryptosporidium, which causes cryptosporidiosis, often in the form of diarrhoea and vomiting. The parasite spreads from faeces.

South West Water customers near the seaside town of Brixham were advised to boil their tap water before drinking it. About 17,000 households were affected by the warning, with compensation of up to £265 for those still affected as of 7 June.

News of Davy’s pay increase comes amid a general election campaign in which water quality has played a prominent role.

Anthony Mangnall, who was the Conservative MP for Totnes and South Devon until the dissolution of parliament, said Davy should resign after refusing to change course on a £127m dividend. The dividend was decided last month despite the company making a £9.1m loss for the year.

“Once again South West Water have put themselves before the people,” he said. “From paying out dividends to increasing their own pay, this only goes to show that they are a company deeply out of touch with the needs and wants of the people.”

Davy’s pay rise came as she received £298,000 under a long-term incentive plan awarded in 2021, before the company had brought in changes to lower share awards if water quality was not up to scratch. That came on top of fixed pay worth £562,000.

Pennon executives did give up part of their variable pay for the year, meaning Davy’s pay was £237,000 lower than it otherwise might have been.

In a foreword to the annual report, Davy wrote: “As CEO, it’s also my job to lead from the front and champion living our values. With executive remuneration continuing to be in the media and regulatory spotlight, I recommended to the remuneration committee that the annual bonus was forgone. It’s the right thing to do.”

Gary Carter, a national officer at the GMB union, said: “Does South West Water have no shame? This scandalous behaviour has to end. It’s time Ofwat stopped water companies paying big bonuses and paying out huge dividends for such poor performances. Bosses must put their hands in their own pockets to stop pollution and sewage leaks. Customers should not have to pay for years of management failure.”

Luke Hildyard, a director at the High Pay Centre, a campaign group, said executive pay often had “little to do with performance, ability or the value to society of their work”.

He said: “Preventing intestinal parasites from flooding the tap water of your customers feels like quite a fundamental part of the job for the chief executive of a water company. It is surprising that failure to surpass this fairly minimal expectation not only nets a half-a-million-pound salary, but also a six-figure performance-related payout.”

Pennon also announced that its chair, Gill Rider, would retire after the company’s general meeting next month. She will be replaced by David Sproul, a global deputy chief executive of the accountants Deloitte from 2019 to 2021 and the current chair of Starling Bank. Sproul will receive pay of £250,000.

A spokesperson for Pennon said: “We understand the strength of feeling from our customers and the public around the issues facing the water sector. For the second year running, our chief executive, alongside other members of our executive leadership team, have therefore made the personal decision to decline annual bonus for the previous financial year.”

The BBC has learned that the appointment of Britain’s next ambassador to the United States has formally been put on hold because of pre-election Whitehall rules.

James Landale www.bbc.co.uk

There have been widespread reports – not denied by Downing Street – that Rishi Sunak has nominated Sir Tim Barrow, his national security adviser, for the role.

This prompted anger among some in Labour who accused the prime minister of trying to rush through the appointment before the election.

Labour shadow ministers are understood to have voiced their concerns about Sir Tim’s appointment during pre-election conversations with officials at the Foreign Office.

The row has discomfited US diplomats who do not want to get caught in a dispute between the two largest political parties of one of their closest allies.

The State Department has to give its consent to any ambassadorial appointments in Washington – known as formally as “agrément” – and it risked having to endorse Sir Tim while question marks remained over his nomination.

The appointment has now been formally frozen under civil service rules laid down to stop big decisions being taken during the pre-election period known as “purdah”.

Section “H” of the General Election Guidance for Civil Servants says “all appointments requiring approval by the Prime Minister, and other Civil Service and public appointments likely to prove sensitive… should be frozen until after the election, except in exceptional circumstances”.

It adds: “This includes appointments where a candidate has already accepted a written offer… but where the individual is not due to take up post until after the election”.

The Foreign Office said: “All Government Departments must adhere to the central pre-election guidance. Future ambassadorial appointments will be confirmed by the FCDO in the usual way.”

The row began in late April when Downing Street announced General Gwyn Jenkins, vice chief of the Defence Staff, would replace Sir Tim as national security adviser. It did not say what new role Sir Tim would take up but Mr Sunak did not deny reports he would become Britain’s top envoy in the US.

When asked by political reporters on a plane to Warsaw, Mr Sunak said “ambassadorial or diplomatic appointments are always made in the usual way” and added: “It’s entirely normal for those to be made in advance… entirely in keeping with precedent because ambassadors’ designate often go and acclimatise themselves and build relationships before they formally start”.

The current ambassador Dame Karen Pierce is expected to leave next year after her appointment was extended for another 12 months to make up for Covid-related disruption at the beginning of her term.

“I think the next ambassador will arrive in early 2025, and I will stay till then,” she reportedly told a recent diplomatic gathering at the Washington embassy.

Sources say the Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, had assured his Labour shadow, David Lammy, that such a significant official appointment would not be made in the run-up to the election.

But it is understood Downing Street ignored Lord Cameron’s concerns and decided to press ahead with the appointment. Whitehall sources said No 10 wanted to announce General Jenkins’ appointment as the first NSA from a military background to reinforce their commitment to security, a key Tory election theme.

It is understood that if Labour won the election, Sir Keir Starmer would revisit Sir Tim’s appointment and might instead choose another candidate. At the very least it is expected that he would begin a new recruitment process.

The extension of Dame Karen’s term until next year would give Labour the chance to choose her successor after the outcome of the US election in November is known.

There has been speculation about potential Labour nominees for the role including David Miliband, former Foreign Secretary; Baroness Ashton, former vice-president of the European Commission and Lord Mandelson, former Northern Ireland Secretary. Other names suggested have been Tom Fletcher, principal of Hertford College, Oxford and former ambassador to Lebanon, and Lord Sedwill, former Cabinet Secretary and former national security adviser.

Labour’s concern was not about Sir Tim as an individual; he is a distinguished diplomat who has served as Britain’s ambassador to Russia and the EU. The anger was prompted more by the loss of Labour’s right to make its own appointment, the belief that Downing Street was behaving inappropriately, and Sir Tim’s background as a longstanding official adviser to senior Conservative figures including Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Mr Sunak.

The muddle over Sir Tim’s appointment could lead to some awkward musical chairs in Whitehall. General Jenkins is expected to take up his new role as NSA soon and his successor as vice chief of the Defence Staff has already been named as General Dame Sharon Nesmith.

The Liberal Democrats are to announce plans to overhaul capital gains tax to raise £5bn for the NHS, making them the first party to announce a big tax change as part of their spending plans.

Jessica Elgot www.theguardian.com 

The party’s leader, Ed Davey, said the change was “making tax fairer” and the party said it would hit only the wealthiest. The party will unveil its manifesto on Monday.

The estimated £5bn raised by the tax rise would be directed into plans to recruit 8,000 more GPs in order to meet a target of a guaranteed appointment in seven days. The revenue raised would also be put into cancer treatment, speeding up waiting times for treatment to guarantee care within 62 days.

The party will say that those on lower incomes would be protected by an increase in the annual tax-free CGT allowance to £5,000, up from £3,000 in the current tax year. The proposed new system would be adjusted for inflation and there would be a targeted relief system devised for small businesses.

The policy puts health and social care at the centre of the Lib Dems’ offer at the election – where Davey has put his experience as a carer for his disabled son at the heart of his message to the public.

The Lib Dems have already announced a plan for free personal care including washing and medication for disabled and older people, funded by reversals of tax breaks for banks estimated at £2.7bn – though independent thinktanks have said the cost is likely to be higher.

Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said her party will not make changes to CGT, though some in the party believe there is a case for an overhaul that would be a significant revenue raiser.

Several thinktanks have said that the two main parties are not being honest with the public about the state of the public finances, as Labour and the Tories have ruled out any big tax rises.

Last month the Institute for Fiscal Studies said there was a “conspiracy of silence” over necessary tax and spending choices, with the next government likely to inherit the toughest outlook for the public finances in 80 years.

The Lib Dem proposal would create three bands to be applied to taxable gains at different rates: gains between £5,000 and £50,000 taxed 20%; those between £50,000 and £100,000 taxed at 40% and those over £100,000 at 45%.

Davey said the NHS was in desperate need of a rescue package. “We are putting fixing health and social care at the heart of our party’s plans for the country,” he said. “Under this Conservative government, local health services have been decimated while hospitals crumble.

“After years of devastating tax hikes from Rishi Sunak, it would be grossly unfair to force hard-working families and pensioners to pick up the tab for Conservative failings on the NHS. That is why the Liberal Democrats will rescue health and social care services by making tax fairer, with billionaires and big banks asked to pay their fair share.”

Other big offers in the Lib Dem manifesto would be a pledge for an EU-wide scheme to allow under-35s to live and work in Europe, new paternity leave rights and a crackdown on sewage pollution.

The party is heavily targeting seats in the south-west and London commuter belt, the so-called “blue wall”, where it hopes to take votes from liberal voters disillusions with the Conservatives. Almost all the party’s target seats were held by the Conservatives, including some by senior cabinet ministers such as the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in Godalming and Ash, and the education secretary, Gillian Keegan, in Chichester.

“We have a plan and it’s working”

‘Members aren’t happy’: Sunak holds crunch talks with advisers over D-Day blunder

Rishi Sunak staged a full media blackout over the weekend as the Conservative Party sought to limit the fallout from his decision to leave the D-Day commemorations early.

Richard Vaughan, Chloe Chaplain, Arj Singh, Eleanor Langford inews.co.uk 

The Prime Minister avoided taking part in any media questions while visiting a village fete in Great Ayton on Saturday, cancelled an arranged briefing on the same day and chose to campaign near his own constituency on Sunday morning as the party sought to limit the fallout.

The Prime Minister is understood to have spent much of the weekend locked in meetings with his closest advisers, including chief campaign strategist Isaac Levido, in a bid to work up plans to bounce back from the setback with a series of tax and economy announcements in the coming weeks.

One source close to Mr Sunak said: “We’ve still got more to come, and that’s in contrast to Labour’s empty manifesto.”

A fresh tax giveaway is believed to be among the rabbits to be pulled from the hat as the party prepares to announce its manifesto on Tuesday.

Mr Sunak is expected to be back on the road campaigning in the South East on Monday, but will only be taking a small pool of broadcast journalists, rather than allowing access to the wider media as the party aims to regain control over the election narrative.

With the row over Mr Sunak’s damaging D-Day gaffe still raging over the weekend, one of his closest political allies was forced to deny that the Tory leader would have to quit over.

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride insisted that Mr Sunak would not quit the Tory leadership midway through the campaign.

But the fact Mr Stride was facing questions over whether his party leader can see the general election campaign through to polling day has left several Tories deeply concerned about the party’s prospects on 4 July.

Mr Stride dismissed the notion of the party losing its leader during the campaign, insisting Mr Sunak would “absolutely” lead the party into the election. “There should be no question of anything other than that,” he told Sky News.

Tory candidates have largely closed ranks in the wake of the D-Day bungle, claiming that the issue had barely been brought up on the doorstep with voters.

One Conservative candidate lamented Mr Sunak’s actions last week, describing it as “not the most appropriate decision”, with Tory adding: “I think the apology was the problem, everybody understood he needed to return to work but that made it a matter of judgement.”

A “Red Wall” Tory candidate conceded, “Members aren’t happy,” but played down the effect of the D-Day row on voter doorsteps.

And a minister admitted to being personally “very cross about it” but expressed surprised by how little it had been raised by voters.

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage twice refused to disown comments that suggested Mr Sunak ducked out of the D-Day commemorations early due to his Indian heritage, sparking accusations from Labour that he was engaging in “dog-whistle politics”.

In contrast to the Prime Minister’s decision to lay low, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer chose to campaign in the Tory heartland of Essex where he was asked about the his counterpart’s choice to leave the commemorations early.

Sir Keir said: “Clearly he’s got questions he needs to answer in relation to what happened on D-Day and at the moment he doesn’t seem to want to answer them.”

And he added: “I know what I stand for, I know why I was there on Thursday, paid my respects and saying thank you.

“And I was humbled actually, when I was there.”

“I have always said that Cameron was popped into the Lords and into a senior ministerial post for a reason. 

I thought maybe it was to replace Sunak at an earlier stage.

Rumours around tonight that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword. 

There are no MPs – only Ministers. 

If Sunak does resign, any replacement would have to come from within Ministerial ranks…”

[Owl thinks that might be the case as a “pro tem” Prime Minister until the election but not necessarily the case for a replacement leader of the party.]

Nadine Dorries on “X”

Duty Minister refutes:

Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, said Sunak would not resign over the move in the middle of an election campaign. “There should be no question of anything other than [Sunak continuing to lead the party],” he told Sky News…..

…..“And I think he will be feeling this personally, very deeply, because he’s a deeply patriotic person. He will be deeply uncomfortable with what has happened.”

Labour: he needs to come out of hiding

As Sunak failed to appear in the media on Saturday or Sunday, Labour sources said the prime minister needed to “come out of hiding soon and explain how families can afford five more years of this madness”.

South West Water has taken a legal stake in a customer’s home after she withheld her bill payments in a protest over sewage dumping in rivers and the sea.

Another PR disaster in the making? – Owl

Damian Carrington www.theguardian.com 

Thousands of water company customers are thought to be withholding payments but this is the first known case of a company enforcing a claim against a customer’s home.

Imogen May, of Crediton, Devon, has withheld payment since 2019 and has a £2,809 debt. South West Water won a county court judgment over the debt and has claimed an interest in May’s cottage via the Land Registry. When it is sold, the company can claim what it says it is owed.

May has also withheld payment of council tax, arguing that the funds are not spent on people’s priorities, such as environmental projects and children’s mental health services. The council is now applying for a court order to force the sale of May’s cottage.

“This is about using my place of privilege as a homeowner to push the boundaries,” she said. “It’s about necessity – unless we challenge them and show them that we’re not frightened of them, they will continue to do what they’re doing.”

“They are killing our water,” May told the Guardian. “Without our water, we are dead. I care deeply about the planet and biodiversity and I just want to inspire people to stop paying these bastards to rip us off.

“The language of money is the only thing they really understand. They can have it by all means when they spend our money on what it’s designed for. But they are openly polluting our waters and I’m done with it.”

May, who works in a bakery, has frequently taken part in environmental protests. She was arrested while blocking Lambeth Bridge in London as part of an Extinction Rebellion protest in 2019 and released without charge. Charges brought over a protest against the HS2 rail development in Buckinghamshire in 2020 were later dismissed.

May’s home is already up for sale as she had decided to downsize after her two daughters left home. She is undecided about what to do once the house is sold, “but if I am set with a choice to pay these bills or go to prison then I’ll pay the bloody bills,” she said. “I’ve promised my kids that I would not end up in prison.”

A spokesperson for South West Water said it did not comment on individual customers’ cases. “We are serious about tackling storm overflows and change of this scale takes time, ambition and increased investment, and that is why we are investing £850m in our region over two years,” he said. “We will also be the first water company to meet the government target of less than 10 spills per overflow, per year, a decade ahead of target.”

South West Water increased its annual dividend to investors to £127m in May. In the same month, 17,000 of its customers had to boil water due to contamination with the cryptosporidium parasite, which results from faecal pollution of water supplies.

Frequent overflows of sewage into rivers and the sea has become a high-profile issue in recent years. Multimillion-pound court fines have been levied against a number of English water companies over their failings, and their large debts and dividend payments to shareholders have become controversial. Thousands of customers are thought to be boycotting their payments, with bill strikes ongoing against all nine companies dealing with wastewater in England.

Julie Wassmer, of Whitstable, Kent, helped found the BoycottWaterBills.com website. She has withheld the sewerage portion of her water bill from Southern Water since 2021, totalling about £1,000.

“We know for a fact that we’ve got boycott action in all the wastewater areas,” she said. “We haven’t got a complete figure on how many people are boycotting nationally but we believe it’s thousands,” based on mailing list numbers and web activity.

Wassmer said the process for complaining to water companies was “not fit for purpose” and that the industry regulator, Ofwat, was ineffective in stemming the sewage pollution. “So there’s no chance of holding the companies to account. The whole thing is just a legalised scam and it’s only benefited the companies, the executives and their shareholders, and people are doing the only thing I think we can do, which is to withhold payment.”

She likened the widespread bills boycott to the successful anti-fracking campaigns in which she has also taken part. “There are so many different people involved and that means we’re hydra-headed and more difficult for the companies to pick us off.”

Caz Dennett, of Weymouth, started the Don’t Pay for Dirty Water campaign with Extinction Rebellion. “It seemed like an obvious action for people to take to truly demonstrate how sickening and scandalous the water company racket is,” she said. She has withheld the sewage charge part of her Wessex Water bill for 14 months and is in dispute with the company over the £940 it says she owes.

Katy Taylor, the chief customer officer at Southern Water, said: “To reduce storm overflows, we have a £1.5bn investment increasing storage capacity and finding ways to divert rain back to the environment naturally.”

A Wessex Water spokesperson said: “We agree [storm overflows] are outdated and we’re currently spending over £3m a month to progressively improve them. Subject to regulatory approval, this investment will double.”

Wassmer said: “Nationalisation appears to be the only way forward. England is the only country in the world to have a fully privatised water industry. So it’s not only a national disgrace, it’s an international disgrace.”

A poll has suggested that Reform UK’s Nigel Farage is the most popular option to succeed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservatives if Labour win the General Election.

The poll by Redfield and Wilton, conducted for The Independent, surveyed 2,000 adults on Wednesday and Thursday and showed 19% of people think Mr Farage should take over from Mr Sunak, with 22% of 2019 Conservative voters surveyed agreeing.

The poll offered six other names – Penny Mordaunt (15%), James Cleverly (6%), Kemi Badenoch (5%), Suella Braverman (4%), Priti Patel (2%) and Robert Jenrick (1%).

The largest proportion (48%) of those surveyed said they did not know who should replace Mr Sunak as leader of the Conservatives.

May you live in interesting times! – Owl

StoptheVote.org, a major tactical voting site, has TAKEN DOWN its recommendation of a Labour vote in Exmouth & East Exeter. It now says its tactical advice is ‘COMING SOON: We’re waiting until more polling is released to confirm our advice here.’

seatonmatters.org

It explains: ‘We’ve manually set advice for this constituency because as an Independent was in second place last time, it is not yet clear where those supporters will go’. In other words, the old advice was based on automatically applying national trends without proper local data.

Meanwhile Electoral Calculus, the site which takes into account local information, estimates that the race is incredibly close between the Tory (32.6%), Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems (29.8) and Labour (21.4). It has reduced the chance of the Tory winning to 54%, increased the Lib Dems’ to 34%, and puts Labour’s chance on 10%.

Some facts on this constituency:

1. 78 per cent of the old East Devon seat is in it – but some extra Exeter wards have been added.
2. In the old East Devon seat, the Lib Dems were always second until 2010 – Labour were never in contention.
3. Claire Wright (Independent) took over as the main challenger in 2015, 2017 and 2019, squeezing the Lib Dem, Labour and Green votes down to a very small level.
4. In 2019, Claire got 40.4%, Labour 4.5%, Lib Dems 2.8%, Greens 1.1%. Claire is supporting Paul Arnott.
5. In local elections in the new constituency in 2023-4, Lib Dems have gained 39.5% of the votes, Labour 13%, Greens 6% – while Tories got 37.5% – confirming that this is a tight Tory:Lib Dem race.
6. Labour have just confirmed that the constituency is NOT a battleground seat for them – their members are advised to canvass in the nearest battleground seat in Plymouth.
7. Labour’s 2019 candidate has left the party and is standing as an Independent, so their vote will be further split.

Rishi Sunak says sorry for leaving D-day events early to record TV interview

(In order to defend claims he had made about Sir Keir Starmer’s tax plans).

Rishi Sunak has apologised for leaving D-day anniversary events early to take part in a TV interview, admitting it was “a mistake not to stay in France longer”.

Aletha Adu www.theguardian.com 

The prime minister had been heavily criticised for allowing the foreign secretary, David Cameron, to take his place in the late afternoon ceremony at Omaha beach on Thursday, while he left Normandy to do a prerecorded ITV segment.

On Friday, the prime minister said on X: “I care deeply about veterans and have been honoured to represent the UK at a number of events in Portsmouth and France over the past two days and to meet those who fought so bravely.

“After the conclusion of the British event in Normandy, I returned back to the UK. On reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer – and I apologise.”

Conservative activists reacted with fury at the sight of Cameron standing alongside the French, German and US leaders, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden, , with one saying it had left them questioning whether to “bother to continue campaigning”.

Sunak was forced to apologise after the ITV presenter Paul Brand confirmed on News at Ten that Sunak returned from Normandy to speak to him. Brand said ITV was interviewing all of the party leaders and had been working to secure a date with Sunak for some time. “Today was the slot they offered us,” he said. “We don’t know why.”

Opposition politicians criticised the prime minister on Friday morning, saying he had “brought shame” on the office.

Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth said: “Yesterday’s D-day commemorations were about remembering the bravery of all those who serve our country. In choosing to prioritise his own vanity TV appearances over our veterans, Rishi Sunak has shown what is most important to him. It is yet more desperation, yet more chaos, and yet more dreadful judgment from this out-of-touch prime minister.”

The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, said: “One of the greatest privileges of the office of prime minister is to be there to honour those who served, yet Rishi Sunak abandoned them on the beaches of Normandy. He has brought shame to that office and let down our country.

“I am thinking right now of all those veterans and their families he left behind and the hurt they must be feeling. It is a total dereliction of duty and shows why this Conservative government just has to go.”

The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, posted on X that Sunak “could not even be bothered to attend” the Omaha Beach event.

One Tory activist said: “Lots of us are asking each other what’s the point, across associations. He allowed a former PM to get some pics next to Biden in his place. Why should we bother to continue campaigning, knocking on hundreds of doors when Sunak seems to be doing all he can to completely ruin our chance of losing in a way that’s just about tolerable.”

However, a Conservative source played down the diplomatic impact of the prime minister’s absence from the event, as they said Sunak would see Macron, Biden, Scholz and other key leaders at the G7 summit in Puglia, Italy, which starts next Thursday.

Sunak did attend an event on Thursday morning at Ver-sur-Mer, in Normandy, which was also attended by Macron, King Charles and Queen Camilla.

Sunak’s apology came minutes after a junior Conservative minister defended his absence. David Johnston told Times Radio: “As children’s minister I don’t exactly know what the prime minister’s diary looks like.

“But I do know, because we saw him at the various commemorations this week, that he has been paying tribute to our veterans and marking the D-day commemorations and I think everybody can see he’s very committed to that.”

Tory pledge not to reform ‘increasingly absurd’ council tax system in England blocks levelling up, says IFS

Andrew Sparrow www.theguardian.com 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published a damning assessment of the Conservative party’s decision to rule out reform of the way council tax operates in England in the next parliament. (See 9.28am.)

In the briefing, David Phillips, an associate director at the IFS, said:

The new ‘family home tax guarantee’ [the Tory term for its new pledge] would mean perpetuating the increasingly absurd situation whereby the council tax that households pay is based on the value of their property relative to others in England on 1 April 1991 – a third of a century ago, when Mikhail Gorbachev was President of the Soviet Union and Chesney Hawkes topped the charts with The One and Only.

Since this one and only valuation of houses, values have increased by massively different amounts around the country, meaning that at least half are now effectively in the ‘wrong band’. Households in the north and Midlands are often in too high a band – and pay too much – while those in London and its environs too low a band – and pay too little – compared to what they would under a modernised tax. In other words, in its current form council tax works against levelling up.

And here are three charts from the briefing that prove this point.

This one shows how people living in low-value homes have to pay much more in council tax, as a proportion of the value of their home, then people in expensive properties.

Cost of council tax as % of value of your home 

This shows how, if council tax was now based on current property values, instead of 1990 values, people in most of the north of England and the Midlands would gain, because their homes have not risen in value over the last 30 years as much as properties in the south. But people in London would face a particularly big increase, and other people in the south or east of England might pay more too.

Winners and losers from potential council tax revaluation

But the IFS is also in favour of reforming the system to make council tax proportional to the value of property. It set out the case for this in a report four years ago and this chart show how around seven out of 10 households – all but the richer ones – would gain from this approach.

Winners and losers from making council tax proportional to value

Lucie Heath inews.co.uk

Today the Liberal Democrats become the first political party in Britain to sign up to i’s blueprint to save the nation’s rivers.

Martin Shaw explains why electoral predictions at constituency level are pushing the limits, particularly for idiosyncratic constituencies such as the new Exmouth & Exeter East one. 

It is the reason that Owl has only referred to the electoral calculus predictions at constituency level. That takes the multiple regression analysis to a deeper level than the others, but would certainly benefit from increased sampling. 

Thank you Martin for drawing this to the attention of Survation, YouGov and Electoral Calculus.

Seriously flawed polling could do more harm than good.

seatonmatters.org 

As a politics academic myself, I have been in touch with a number of pollsters about some perverse-looking projections for the seats in East Devon. Survation even has Labour to win Honiton & Sidmouth – although they got only 3.7 per cent in the by-election and are not even campaigning now! However, most now seem have to recognised that it’s a fight between Richard Foord and the Tory.

The problem is, one pollster admits to me, they are using “national level data for small area estimation”, telling me: “You are certainly correct that there are some surprising estimates in the MRP model, particularly when it comes to idiosyncratic seats.”

The most idiosyncratic seat of all is probably EXMOUTH & EXETER EAST, because most non-Tory voters in the old East Devon seat (which is three quarters of the new one) backed Claire Wright in 2019. She got 41 per cent, while Labour got only 4.5 per cent and the Lib Dems 2.8 per cent – but some pollsters have used these tiny and out-of-date figures to estimate that Labour could be leading the Lib Dems in 2024!

Recognising the problem, Survation tells me that they, YouGov and Electoral Calculus have now agreed to poll more people in both Exmouth & Exeter East and Honiton & Sidmouth, to try to get a more accurate picture.

In the meanwhile, Electoral Calculus are the only pollster to have tried to take into account the unique circumstances of Exmouth & Exeter East – they have the Tories on 33, Lib Dems 29.7 and Labour 23.

Today every political party in Britain is challenged to sign up to a blueprint that will save the nation’s rivers.

Lucie Heath inews.co.uk 

Amid growing public anger at the health hazards from sewage and other pollution – and the widespread destruction of wildlife – i has created a manifesto to rescue UK rivers and seas.

The plan is simple but requires political willpower, rather than the current blame game. Every political party in the UK will be asked to support it. There are five key pledges to reverse the destruction of our precious waterways.

Taking these five steps will transform Britain’s rivers. i will reveal which parties back the plan, which decline to, and why.

Any member of the public who feels strongly about the issue will be able to use this manifesto to help drive change.

The objective is to finally force political action – and stop our rivers being used as 24/7 open sewers, returning them to people and nature.

The plan would guarantee a legacy for i’s Save Britain’s Rivers campaign, which was launched in 2023 in collaboration with our sister publication, New Scientist.

The manifesto is expected to attract strong cross-party support, as well as the backing of Britain’s environmental groups and their millions of supporters.

i’s editorial team decided to take action because of growing disgust and anger among readers in communities around the UK.

Since environmental issues are largely devolved, the policies in i‘s manifesto focus primarily on the protection of England’s rivers, because this is the jurisdiction that the UK government has full control over.

However, i is challenging political parties in all four nations to sign up to the manifesto ahead of the general election in July, and for equivalent measures to be introduced by policymakers across the UK.

Here are the five pledges:

#1. RIVER HEALTH: 77% rivers in good health by 2027

Current situation: England’s rivers were once havens of biodiversity, but the vast majority are now struggling to support healthy ecosystems of plants and wildlife. Just 14 per cent of rivers in England are currently in good ecological health and not a single river has achieved good chemical health. The current Government has set a legal target that 77 per cent will achieve good ecological status by 2027 – but without urgent action this will not happen. 

Target: Within its first six months in power, the next Government will publish a roadmap on how it is going to achieve this existing legal target, and its long-awaited chemical strategy. The plan must include increased funding for the Environment Agency so the watchdog can do its job – and enforce the law.  

#2. SEWAGE: Sewage spills will not damage high-priority areas – including bathing spots and nature sites – by 2030

Current situation: Bathing waters and nature sites are being destroyed by sewage spills, but water companies will not be required to clean up all these spaces until 2045. 

Target: Untreated sewage will not cause damage to high-priority sites (which are bathing spots, protected nature sites, National Parks and chalk streams) by 2030. Water companies who fail to meet this target will be prosecuted. Nature-based solutions will be used to clean up sewage wherever possible. 

#3. WATCHDOG: Regulators will stop water companies destroying the environment in pursuit of profit

Current situation: Water companies have paid their investors healthy dividends while failing to invest enough in their infrastructure to prevent environmental harm. This is partly caused by a disjointed regulatory system that prioritises economic outcomes over the environment.  

Target: Within its first year in power, the next Government will publish a plan to reform regulation of water companies. This plan must be legislated on and executed within the first term of Parliament. This will include tougher powers to restrict dividends and bonuses for underperforming water companies, alongside greater resources to pursue prosecution. A “green duty” will be placed on Ofwat, which will force the regulator to place greater emphasis on the environment when making decisions over water companies’ business plans.  

#4. BATHING: Create 100 clean bathing spots in rivers by 2030

Current situation: People in the UK have discovered the joy of wild swimming. But there are only 15 official bathing spots in English rivers, and many are not safe. 

Target: 100 bathing spots in English rivers by the end of the next Parliament. The Environment Agency must start monitoring water quality throughout the year and take action to improve water quality at these sites. Bathing regulations will be altered so polluters can be prosecuted when bathing sites fail water quality tests.  

#5. FARMING: Farmers must be funded to improve water quality, and face enforcement action if they damage the environment

Current situation: Agriculture is the biggest source of pollution in many rivers, but many farmers warn they are struggling to make ends meet under post-Brexit farming subsidies. Meanwhile, the Environment Agency is failing to enforce farming water-quality regulations.   

Target: Within its first year in power, the next Government will strengthen its Environmental Land Management scheme so farmers are given more grants, support and advice to undertake activities that will improve water quality. The Environment Agency will commit to a year-on-year increase in the number of farms being inspected – and take enforcement action against those who commit breaches of the “farming rules for water”.

In 2023, water companies in England and Wales spilled untreated waste into rivers, lakes and seas almost 580,000 times. There is currently not the same level of data available for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but high volumes of sewage are discharged in both countries.

i’s Editor-in-chief, Oliver Duff, said: “The water industry’s watchdog is asleep and the Environment Agency has been crippled by budget cuts. It’s a polluter’s charter. The law already criminalises this behaviour but it is not being enforced. Our readers want action.”

He added: “We’re not willing to sit back and let this keep happening – and neither should the next government.”

Green groups back Save Britain’s Rivers Manifesto 

Already, 21 prominent environmental groups and campaigners have backed i’s manifesto.

They urged the next government to stop treating the UK’s waterways as “open sewers” and to take urgent action to revive them.

The Rivers Trust, Surfers Against Sewage, Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace are among the groups supporting the manifesto, while Chris Packham and Deborah Meaden, public figures with a history of campaigning on environmental issues, are also endorsing it.

“Our rivers are the lifeblood for people and nature and they are in a terrible state with no clear plan to heal and protect them. It is essential that any incoming government fully commits to cleaning up our precious waterways and that is why i‘s rivers manifesto is so important. It has my full support,” Meaden said.

i‘s manifesto includes policies designed to minimise damage caused by sewage spills and farming and ensure our rivers are thriving for humans and wildlife alike.

Without action, we will continue to hear stories like the “death” of the iconic River Wye, its wildlife decimated by pollution.

Unsafe levels of E.coli are already found in many rivers and coastal waters, blighting some of the country’s most beloved bathing spots and posing risks to human health.

Supporters of i’s Save Britain’s Rivers manifesto

The following organisations and individuals have pledged their support to i‘s manifesto asks:

• The Rivers Trust
• River Action
• The Wildlife Trusts
• Wildlife and Countryside Link
• Campaign for Natoinal Parks
• Greenpeace
• Angling Trust
• Chris Packham
• Deborah Meaden
• Surfers Against Sewage
• Friends of the Earth
• Buglife
• People’s Trust for Endangered Species
• Pesticide Action Network UK
• Institute of Fisheries Management
• A Rocha UK
• Nature Friendly Farming Network
• Rewilding Britain
• Fidra
• British Ecological Society
• Marine Conservation Society

How i‘s manifesto will Save Britain’s Rivers

Currently just 14 per cent of England’s waterways are rated as having a “good” ecological status, while 0 per cent have a “good” chemical status.

The Government has set a legal target of 77 per cent of England’s rivers achieving a “good” ecological status by 2027, but this target is likely to be missed, according to its watchdog, the Office for Environmental Protection.

i’s manifesto urges the next Government to get the country back on track to achieving this target by publishing a detailed plan within its first six months in power on how it will achieve this.

This must include a commitment to increase funding for the Environment Agency (EA), which has been cut to the bone in recent years, leaving it unable to properly hold water companies to account.

Sewage pollution has captured the public’s attention and is one of the biggest challenges facing our rivers.

Following years of tireless campaigning by environmentalists to expose this issue, in May 2023 water companies issued an apology and proposed to invest £10bn in reducing sewage spills.

i’s manifesto urges the firms to go further and ensure that investment is targeted to ensure the maximum benefit for our environment.

We want to see a commitment that sewage spills will no longer destroy high priority sites, including protected nature areas, by 2030.

Where possible, water companies should be supported by the EA to achieve this through nature-based solutions, such as the creation of wetlands, rather than building large concrete storage tanks for sewage.

At the same time the regulation of the water industry must be radically reformed so our environment is prioritised over dividend payments. Since water companies in England were privatised in 1989 they have paid billions in dividends to their shareholders, while investments in infrastructure have failed to keep pace with urban growth and climate change.

This is partly due to decisions made by the regulator Ofwat, which has been accused of prioritising financial growth over the environment. The next Government must set out its plans to overhaul Ofwat in order to rebalance the industry.

We also want to see communities across the country have access to clean, safe water for wild swimming through the creation of 100 clean bathing spots in rivers.

But i’s manifesto also recognises that sewage pollution is only one part of the problem and calls for urgent action to address damage from agriculture, the largest source of pollution to our rivers.

The ongoing intensification of farming is resulting in increased pollution from fertiliser and animal waste.

An incoming Government must reform the current post-Brexit green subsidy scheme to ensure farmers are properly supported to introduce measures in their farms that will reduce river pollution.

Time for radical action

The group River Action said it “wholeheartedly endorses” i’s manifesto – and urged the public to join in demanding action.

“For too long our rivers have been treated like open sewers by the water industry and intensive agriculture alike, while regulators seem primarily motivated to prioritise the making of dirty profits rather than protecting the environment,” said Charles Watson, founder and chair of River Action.

“The time has come to implement forthwith the radical actions that are being advocated by i.”

Surfers Against Sewage has also joined the campaign. Its policy and advocacy manager, Henry Swithinbank, said: “The incoming Government has an opportunity to put a stop to water companies’ dirty tricks.

“We are calling on the people in power to listen to the public and finally put an end to sewage pollution in our rivers and seas.”

While the five pledges will go a long way in protecting our rivers, it is not a comprehensive list of everything the Government must do to ensure the health of our waterways.

“The state of our rivers across the UK should be front of mind for the next government and measures such as protecting high priority sites from sewage spills and encouraging regenerative farming are important first steps,” said Mark Lloyd, CEO of River Trust.

“We also urgently need robust strategies to tackle pollution from road runoff and toxic chemicals, without which we have no chance of rivers achieving good overall health in our lifetimes.”

How you can take action to Save Britain’s Rivers

If you want to push the next Government to act to protect Britain’s rivers, you can support i‘s manifesto by doing the following:

• Write to your local MP candidates, asking them if they will support i’s five-point plan and push for it to be incorporated into their party’s manifesto in time for next month’s election.
• Write to your local water company, urging them to sign up to the pledges and to be part of the solution to Britain’s polluted rivers, not part of the problem.
• Share i‘s manifesto on social media and among your local community.
• Get involved with the groups supporting i‘s manifesto, who are already doing incredible work to conserve our precious waterways
• If you have a story about your local river that you think should be featured in our campaign, contact lucie.heath@inews.co.uk

While Labour and the Conservatives shout “yah boo” at each other, another party takes a different approach:

Caring isn’t just Ed’s story, it’s the story of millions, caring for each other, dealing with tough times, and keeping going with love. The Liberal Democrats will be the voice of carers every day, fighting their corner in Parliament.

• Discharge of conditions for 23/0696/FUL : Condition 5 (external lighting), Condition 7 (hedgerow planting), Condition 8 (landscaping), Condition 9 (access track surfacing), Condition 11 (foul drainage) Land At Addlepool Farm Clyst St GeorgeRef. No: 24/1082/DOC | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Discharge of conditions for 24/0509/FUL : Condition 3 (materials) 54 Withycombe Village Road Exmouth Devon EX8 3ABRef. No: 24/1083/DOC | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Unknown
• Lawson Cypress (T1) – reduce height by 4.5m to leave at 9.5m in height. The Lawn House Oakhayes Road Woodbury Devon EX5 1JTRef. No: 24/1073/TCA | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Lawful Development Certificate for construction of single storey rear extension.14 Westview Close Whimple Devon EX5 2TWRef. No: 24/1074/CPL | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Discharge of Condition for 23/2361/FUL: Condition 4 (Materials) Keates Farm Broom Lane Tytherleigh Axminster Devon EX13 7AZRef. No: 24/1075/DOC | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Removal of conservatory to be replaced with a single storey rear extension which would extend beyond the rear wall of the original house by 4.22m, for which the maximum height would be 3.6m and for which the height of the eaves would be 2.4m. 91 Claremont Field Ottery St Mary EX11 1RPRef. No: 24/1069/GPD | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Discharge of condition for 24/0179/FUL: Condition 3 (materials), Condition 4 (window) and Condition 5 (surface water) June Cottage Hillside Road Sidmouth Devon EX10 8JGRef. No: 24/1059/DOC | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Discharge of condition for 22/0124/FUL: Condition 9 (landscaping) Higherfold Whalley Lane Uplyme Lyme Regis DT7 3UPRef. No: 24/1057/DOC | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Unknown
• Proposed demolition of existing conservatory and construction of single storey rear extension Garden Close Yonder Street Ottery St Mary Devon EX11 1HHRef. No: 24/1054/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of a synchronous gas-powered standby generation facility and associated infrastructure Unit 10 Mushroom Road Hill Barton Business Park Clyst St MaryRef. No: 24/1051/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Demolition of a pair of former cold store buildings The Farmhouse South Street Axminster EX13 5AD
  Ref. No: 24/1058/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Discharge of condition for 23/0947/LBC: Condition 2 (roof materials) and Condition 3 (window materials) Fairmile Cottage Road Through Fairmile Fairmile Devon EX11 1LP
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  G1 – Holm Oaks: crown lift both trees to comply with the Highways Act 1980. Crown lift over garden to 3m above ground level, ensuring an even canopy. Maximum Diameter of Cuts 25mm. Monterey 22 Douglas Avenue Exmouth EX8 2HQ
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  Discharge of condition for 23/0109/FUL: Condition 3 (material) Kuni Kirei Courtlands Lane Exmouth Devon EX8 3NX
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  Discharge of condition for 22/1279/FUL : Condition 7 (Landscape Plan) and Condition 8 (materials) Land At Frogmore Road East Budleigh
  Ref. No: 24/1039/DOC | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Unknown
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  Construction of a single storey rear extension which would extend beyond the rear wall of the original house by 4.5m, for which the maximum height would be 2.8m and for which the height of the eaves would be 2.6m 21 Springfield Road Exmouth Devon EX8 3JY
  Ref. No: 24/1043/GPD | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Demolish chimney stack, insert Velux roof windows into pitched roofs, form opening and install window in gable end. Gommes 11 Marlpit Lane Seaton EX12 2HH
  Ref. No: 24/1048/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Certificate of Lawfulness for proposed part garage conversion and the infill of a small roof overhang14 High Bank West Hill EX11 1XX
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  Discharge of condition for 22/1889/FUL: Condition 3 ( Materials) St Andrews Harp Lane Aylesbeare EX5 2JL
  Ref. No: 24/1026/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Unknown
• 
  T1: Oak – reduce crown back by 5m in height, to high pollard, retaining a tree with a crown spread of 8m to the north and south, and 5m east to west.. 4 Westbourne Terrace Budleigh Salterton EX9 6BR
  Ref. No: 24/1038/TCA | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Discharge of condition for 20/1517/FUL: Condition 4 (Landscaping) and Condition 5 (Landscape management plan). Land At Haynes Burton Upton Pyne
  Ref. No: 24/1034/DOC | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Discharge of condition for 22/2318/LBC: Condition 3: (Material Schedule), Condition 4 (Gutter, Flues, Vents and Rainwater Pipes), Condition 5 (Door, Window and Roof Light Details), Condition 6 (Repair Details), Condition 7 (Structural Engineering Details), Condition 8 (Lime Render Details), Condition 9 (Photogrpahic Record), Condition 10 (Repair Method Statement) Musgrove Farm Lane Past Musgrove Farm House Dunkeswell Devon EX14 4RR
  Ref. No: 24/1020/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Discharge of condition for 22/2317/FUL: Condition 3 (Material Schedule) Musgrove Farm Lane Past Musgrove Farm House Dunkeswell Devon EX14 4RR
  Ref. No: 24/1019/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Discharge of condition for 03/P1900: Condition 20 (Protection of Retained Trees) Site Of Cranbrook New Community London Road Broadclyst
  Ref. No: 24/1016/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Unknown
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  Discharge of condition for 23/2706/LBC: Condition 3 (Render and Slate Material and Fixind Method Details) Musgrove Farm Lane Past Musgrove Farm House Dunkeswell Devon EX14 4RR
  Ref. No: 24/1023/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Discharge of condition for 20/1663/VAR: Condition 12 (Streetlighting Layout & Specification) South Whimple Farm Clyst Honiton Exeter EX5 2DY
  Ref. No: 24/1021/DOC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Erection of a single storey rear extension which would extend beyond the rear wall of the original house by 4m, for which the maximum height would be 3.3m and for which the height of the eaves would be 2.75m 14 Chestnut Crescent Stoke Canon Exeter EX5 4AA
  Ref. No: 24/1015/GPD | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Alteration to drive entrance, 2no. new gates, extension to parking area, raising part of the parking area by 600mm (Retrospective) Proposed increase in height to fence along part of the eastern boundary The Old Toll House Exeter Road Honiton Devon EX14 1AZ
  Ref. No: 24/0976/FUL | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Refurbishment and extension of existing dwelling and construction of additional first floor accommodation with new roof. Bung Ho Southdown Road Beer Devon EX12 3AE
  Ref. No: 24/0982/FUL | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Proposed change of use from residential dwelling to residential dwelling with provision for childcare. 31 Lock Close Sidmouth EX10 9GB
  Ref. No: 24/0978/FUL | Validated: Thu 23 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace 2no. dormer windows to the North-East elevation with 1no. Catslide Dormer Coachmans Cottage Woodhouse Fields Uplyme Devon DT7 3SH
  Ref. No: 24/0964/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Installation externally of 1no. non illuminated traditional fascia and 1no. non illuminated traditional projection sign 15 Fore Street Sidmouth EX10 8AH
  Ref. No: 24/0973/ADV | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Remove existing ATM and infill with glazing to match existing windows and night safe plate to removed and replace window to match existing 11 Rolle Street Exmouth Devon EX8 1HH
  Ref. No: 24/0945/FUL | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Conversion of roof space to habitable use with dormer window and two fixed rooflights on rear N/W elevation and two rooflights on front S/E elevation; new window at first floor level on S/E elevation 1 Lower Woodhayne Whitford Axminster EX13 7NP
  Ref. No: 24/0905/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  New welfare building and 3no temporary buildings at the Donkey Sanctuary maintenance yard (retrospective) Yard Rear Of The Leighs Weston
  Ref. No: 24/0901/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Garden outbuilding ancilliary to cottage for artwork and gym Westaways Broadhembury Honiton EX14 3NQ
  Ref. No: 24/0890/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Variation of condition no.4, (permitted opening hours), on planning consent 21/2850/FUL – Demolition of existing sales building and canopy link and change of use of part of the rear workshop to sales building plus associated works. Proposal to change opening hours. Oakland Service Station Sidmouth Road Aylesbeare Devon EX5 2JJ
  Ref. No: 24/0879/VAR | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Proposal for internal alterations including layout changes, door openings reinstated, opening fireplace & installation of woodburner, new flooring and installing underfloor heating, secondary glazing throughout, new French doors and external steps with railings, and other general repairs Barton House Church Hill Otterton EX9 7HU
  Ref. No: 24/0816/LBC | Validated: Mon 20 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Proposed rear single storey extension, construction of new first floor and new external timber boarding The Beeches Town End Broadclyst EX5 3HW
  Ref. No: 24/0801/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Loft conversion with roof windows 21C Morton Crescent Exmouth Devon EX8 1BG
  Ref. No: 24/0774/FUL | Validated: Wed 22 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
• The proposal comprise installation of 3 no. antennas, 1 no. transmission dish, 1 no. equipment cabinet and ancillary thereto development including RRUs on a rooftop Telecommunications Mast Branscombe Water Tower (Opp Kings Down Tail) Branscombe
  Ref. No: 24/0756/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Demolition of garage, construction of side and rear extension. 5 Orchard Close Ottery St Mary Devon EX11 1HT
  Ref. No: 24/0728/FUL | Validated: Tue 21 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision
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  Construction of a detached triple garage with holiday let accommodation above Apple Tree Farm Broadhembury Devon EX14 3JZ
  Ref. No: 24/0722/FUL | Validated: Fri 24 May 2024 | Status: Awaiting decision

The next election will be Nigel Farage’s eighth attempt to enter the House of Commons. Regardless of what happens in Clacton, it could be his most influential Westminster campaign yet.

For more than a year, opinion polls have shown support for the Conservatives squeezed on the left by Labour and on the right by Reform, who have been polling at around 11 per cent since the start of the general election campaign. What would a Farage boost do to the Tory vote?

Tom Calver www.thetimes.co.uk

Most polls taken this year generally agree that a Farage-run Reform could boost the party by several points. But to properly understand how that will translate into seats, we have to know where that vote comes from. Will Reform take votes away from both main parties?

The bad news for Rishi Sunak is that May’s local elections suggest any Reform bounce will hurt the Tories more than Labour.

Thanks to figures obtained by the election expert Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, we can compare wards where Reform candidates stood with wards where they did not.

In areas where Reform didn’t stand, the typical Tory vote share was down 1.7 percentage points compared with 2023. But where Reform did put up candidates this year — and didn’t last year — the Tory vote dropped by a far bigger margin of 5.3 points. The Labour vote share, by contrast, barely fell at all.

This suggests a significant chunk of Reform’s support is coming at the expense of would-be Conservative voters. And it makes sense when we look at who Reform’s potential voters are.

In Britain, support for Reform — just like support for Brexit during the referendum — tends to increase with age, just as support for the Conservatives does. There is far less overlap with Labour’s younger support base.

Since 2016, the Conservative Party won support by swallowing the anti-EU base, which worked to the party’s advantage in 2019. Now, though, a resurgent Farage threatens to split those voters again. “The current Labour coalition is much more Reform-proof than the Conservative coalition,” says Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

Another way of framing the problem for Sunak is how much more popular Farage is than him. Among 2019 Tory voters, 50 per cent have a favourable view of Nigel Farage, while just 41 per cent have a positive view of Sunak himself.

What, then, would a Reform bounce do to parliament?

The latest YouGov MRP poll of 50,000 voters, published on Monday, puts Reform in second place in 27 constituencies. Eleven of these seats are in Yorkshire, including Barnsley South and Doncaster North. With Labour so far ahead, it is not close to winning in any of them.

However, the distribution of votes suggests even a slight swing to Reform could have a big impact on the scale of Tory losses. If we assume that Reform takes two votes from the Conservatives to every one vote from Labour, then a modest five-point Farage bounce reduces the Conservatives from 140 seats to 118. Labour, despite losing voters, would actually gain eight seats, putting it on 430.

Yet things could get worse. If we assume that Reform takes virtually all its support from people who currently say they would vote Tory, then a four point Reform bounce would reduce the Tories to 95 seats and a five point boost to Reform would leave the Tories with just 78 seats. Indeed, a seven-point increase in Reform’s vote, at the expense of the Conservatives, would knock the Tories back to being the third-largest party in parliament.

When support is low, and your voter base is split, first past the post can be a cruel system. And for all of the damage they inflict on the Conservative Party, it would still take a massive national swing for Reform to actually pick up any seats in parliament at all.

Of course, even megapolls are not very good at predicting local winners. People in different areas behave differently; separate polling of the constituency of Clacton done earlier this year suggests Farage would probably win the seat if he contested it.

But one party is set to do exceptionally well from any potential Farage bounce: the Liberal Democrats.

The party may be running at about 10 per cent of the national vote share, even less than Nigel Farage’s party and below what it achieved in 2019. Yet because it is now a close second in several seats in the south of England, a modest swing to Reform could result in up to a dozen extra seats.

There will be six different types of voter at the forthcoming general election, according to new analysis by a leading pollster.

The National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) has identified six distinct categories of UK voter, based on responses to 12 questions put to the public.

Joe Middleton www.independent.co.uk 

The groups have shared characteristics, such as gender or social class, and align on key political issues such as the economy or immigration.

The underlying data is taken from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, the latest iteration of which will be released in full next week.

Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: “Much of the commentary on the election focuses on questions of performance. But elections are also influenced by voters’ values and their perceptions of politics and politicians.

“The electorate is not just divided between ‘left’ and ‘right’, but also between ‘liberals’ and ‘authoritarians’, while many people sit in the middle and are not especially interested in politics. This poses particular challenges for the two main parties, who will have to reach out to voters well beyond their own ‘comfort zones’ to succeed.”

Which type of voter are you?

Middle Britons (26%)

Middle Britons make up the largest group of voters, comprising more than a quarter of the electorate (26 per cent). They are mostly in the middle ground across political issues and are closest to a “typical” voter, with no clear political affiliation. They are hard for politicians to win over, and not that likely to vote.

Well-Off Traditionalists (12%)

Highly politically engaged and likely to vote, many Well-Off Traditionalists live in the rural South East. This group holds socially conservative views that often align with Conservative policies. They make up 12 per cent of the electorate.

Apolitical Centrists (17%)

The least politically engaged group is generally on the right on economic issues but more centrist on social issues. The Apolitical Centrists are relatively young and on low incomes. Many in this group will likely not vote, but those that do will probably choose either Conservative or Labour. They comprise 17 per cent of the electorate.

Left-Behind Patriots (15%)

This group mostly voted for Brexit and would consider themselves patriotic. They are opposed to economic inequality, but are conservative in their social outlook. The Left-Behind Patriots have no strong allegiance to any party, but are more likely than others to support Reform UK. They make up 15 per cent of the electorate.

Urban Progressives (16%)

Typically university-educated professionals, Urban Progressives lean strongly to the left on economic issues and in a liberal direction on social ones. This group is likely to support Labour or the Greens, and its members, who account for 16 per cent of the electorate, are highly likely to vote.

Soft-Left Liberals (14%)

This group is university-educated, politically engaged, and liberal on social issues, but more centrist on the economy. Soft-Left Liberals are likely to vote Labour, Green, or Lib Dem. They make up 14 per cent of the electorate.