Martin Shaw explains why electoral predictions at constituency level are pushing the limits, particularly for idiosyncratic constituencies such as the new Exmouth & Exeter East one. 

It is the reason that Owl has only referred to the electoral calculus predictions at constituency level. That takes the multiple regression analysis to a deeper level than the others, but would certainly benefit from increased sampling. 

Thank you Martin for drawing this to the attention of Survation, YouGov and Electoral Calculus.

Seriously flawed polling could do more harm than good.

seatonmatters.org 

As a politics academic myself, I have been in touch with a number of pollsters about some perverse-looking projections for the seats in East Devon. Survation even has Labour to win Honiton & Sidmouth – although they got only 3.7 per cent in the by-election and are not even campaigning now! However, most now seem have to recognised that it’s a fight between Richard Foord and the Tory.

The problem is, one pollster admits to me, they are using “national level data for small area estimation”, telling me: “You are certainly correct that there are some surprising estimates in the MRP model, particularly when it comes to idiosyncratic seats.”

The most idiosyncratic seat of all is probably EXMOUTH & EXETER EAST, because most non-Tory voters in the old East Devon seat (which is three quarters of the new one) backed Claire Wright in 2019. She got 41 per cent, while Labour got only 4.5 per cent and the Lib Dems 2.8 per cent – but some pollsters have used these tiny and out-of-date figures to estimate that Labour could be leading the Lib Dems in 2024!

Recognising the problem, Survation tells me that they, YouGov and Electoral Calculus have now agreed to poll more people in both Exmouth & Exeter East and Honiton & Sidmouth, to try to get a more accurate picture.

In the meanwhile, Electoral Calculus are the only pollster to have tried to take into account the unique circumstances of Exmouth & Exeter East – they have the Tories on 33, Lib Dems 29.7 and Labour 23.