Surely Truss and Kwarteng can’t allow even this weak regulator to go on unchecked?

Far too much state interference.

It damages profits and growth. 

Obvious target for cuts to pay for tax reductions. Growth before the environment! – Owl

[Includes South West Water]

Jasper Jolly www.theguardian.com 

Thames Water, Southern Water and other companies will be forced to cut tens of millions of pounds from consumers’ bills after the regulator said they had missed pollution targets.

Eleven water companies will have to return about £150m to customers in the form of lower bills in the 2023-24 financial year, the water regulator for England and Wales, Ofwat, announced on Monday.

The government and water companies have faced increasing criticism in recent years for allowing the dumping of raw sewage into rivers and the sea. The practice is meant to be limited to periods of high rainfall but some companies are under investigation by the Environment Agency for “significant and widespread breaches”.

Water companies in the UK have been privately owned and able to pay billions of pounds in dividends since 1989 despite enjoying a natural monopoly. As customers cannot switch water company if it underperforms, Ofwat instead runs the “outcome delivery incentives” system of automatic payments or penalties according to pre-agreed targets.

Thames and Southern will have to return £51m and £28m respectively after missed targets on water treatment works compliance, pollution incidents and internal sewer flooding across 2021-22, Ofwat said. Other recipients of large penalties included Northumbrian Water and Yorkshire Water, which will cut bills by £20m and £15m.

However, some companies will also be allowed to charge more because they have met targets. The biggest beneficiary will be Severn Trent Water, which can recoup an extra £63m from customer bills, while United Utilities will be able to charge an extra £24m.

The net result is that water companies will overall have to cut bills by £53m for failures during 2021-22.

David Black, the Ofwat chief executive, said: “When it comes to delivering for their customers, too many water companies are falling short, and we are requiring them to return around £150m to their customers.

“We expect companies to improve their performance every year; where they fail to do so, we will hold them to account. The poorest performers, Southern Water and Thames Water, will have to return almost £80m to their customers.

“All water companies need to earn back the trust of customers and the public and we will continue to challenge the sector to improve.”

Penalties to be paid by water companies

Affinity Water £0.8m; Anglian Water £8.5m; Dŵr Cymru £8m; Hafren Dyfrdwy £0.4m; Northumbrian Water £20.3m; SES Water £0.3m; South East Water £3.2m; South West Water £13.3m; Southern Water £28.3m Thames Water £51.0m; Yorkshire Water £15.2m

Bill increases allowed for companies that met targets

Bristol Water £0.6m; Portsmouth Water £0.8m; Severn Trent Water £62.9m; South Staffs Water £3.0m; United Utilities £24.1m; Wessex Water £4.4m

The Labour Party are “very clearly the favourites” to form the next government, pollster Sir John Curtice has told Tory activists in Birmingham.

By Brian Wheeler Political reporter, in Birmingham www.bbc.co.uk

New PM Liz Truss was now as unpopular with voters as Boris Johnson was when he was ousted, said Sir John.

And even if Labour’s current double digit poll lead reduced before the next election in 2024, Labour were still likely to gain power, he suggested.

His analysis was greeted with dismay and cries of “wow” from activists.

The veteran pollster, who masterminds general election exit polls, said Labour already had a nine point lead in the polls when Ms Truss won last month’s Tory leadership election and she had not enjoyed a honeymoon period.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget just over a week ago – and the market reaction to it – had produced a 7% swing to Labour, he said.

“The truth is, whatever the merits of Liz Truss’s package, it has resulted in very serious electoral damage to the Conservatives as an institution and to this new leader,” he told the Demos fringe meeting.

The swing to Labour was similar in size to that seen on Black Wednesday in 1992, the first time the policies of a Conservative government had produced turmoil on the money markets.

If voters remembered the events of the past week when they go to the polls in two years’ time, Labour could be on course for a three figure majority, said Sir John, even if Ms Truss’s policies work as intended and produce economic growth.

In the event of a hung Parliament, opposition parties would be unlikely to prop up a minority Tory administration, he suggested, which made Labour clear favourites to gain power.

Tory activists received a similarly sobering message at an earlier fringe meeting, from pollster with links to the party.

Veteran US pollster Frank Luntz told them: “If you want to win, stop bitching, stop griping, stop complaining and get [it] together.”

He said the party’s MPs had to start communicating with voters in a language they understood, and talking about things which mattered to them.

He also took aim at defeated Tory leadership contender and former chancellor Rishi Sunak, who has opted to stay away from this week’s conference.

“Where is Rishi Sunak? Why is he not here?” he asked the audience of Tory members.

If Mr Sunak was here he could “start to unify the party, you guys can go forward together,” added Mr Luntz.

“When people don’t even show up, what are the voters supposed to think?”

In a scathing assessment of Liz Truss’s first weeks in power, Rachel Wolf, who co-wrote the Conservatives’ 2019 election manifesto, said the new prime minister had no mandate from voters or her own MPs for the “ambitious” Thatcherite agenda she was pursuing.

She accused Ms Truss of “appearing not to care” about the impact her policies will have on voters worried about the cost of living,

“People are feeling poorer,” she added, and they don’t think the solutions Liz Truss has come up with “make any sense”.

Ms Wolf, co-founder of polling company Public First, and a former adviser to Michael Gove, picked apart Ms Truss’s claim to be a strong leader in the mould of Margaret Thatcher, and not afraid of unpopular policies.

The crucial difference between the two, she argued, was that Lady Thatcher had an electoral and Parliamentary mandate for her policies and was capable of articulating them in way that resonated with ordinary voters.

“Thatcher was always a strong leader,” she told the meeting, “but she was of the people, she spoke in their language”.

Pursuing an “ambitious Thatcherite agenda” without a mandate was a recipe for disaster at the polls, she suggested, and she hoped Conservative MPs could at least start to demonstrate some unity and competence.

She also had a message for Sir Keir Starmer.

“People are voting against the government but they are not voting for Labour, That might quite possibly be enough but it is the thing I would be most worried about if I were him.

“The thing that always comes up with Starmer, and still does, is that he has no views, no ideas of his own.”

Asked about the qualities needed in a modern leader, she said: “It’s very hard to support a leader who is uninterested in, or despises, you.

“It’s not whether they are strong, whether they have a view of their own, if they fundamentally don’t seem to like their electorate very much, or don’t think they are worth considering it’s very hard to vote for them.”

Liz Truss’s government has abandoned its plan to abolish the 45% top rate of income tax, following a turbulent reaction from international markets, and a mounting Conservative revolt over the policy.

But the policy of borrowing to fund tax cuts remains; what about bankers’ bonuses and why did Kwarteng deliberately avoid OBR scrutiny? – Owl

Peter Walker www.theguardian.com 

The decision came on the second day of the Tory conference in Birmingham, which had been dominated by dissent from Conservative MPs about both a tax cut for the wealthiest, and the wider idea of increased borrowing to finance tax reductions.

The abolition of the top tax rate, a marginal tax applying to incomes of £150,000 and above, was announced 10 days ago by Kwarteng as part of a mini-budget, which also included promised reductions to corporation tax, national insurance and the basic rate of income tax.

It triggered turmoil in the City, and was criticised by the International Monetary Fund. After a steep rise in the cost of government debt, the Bank of England made a a £65bn emergency intervention to restore order.

At the conference, the former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Grant Shapps had taken aim at the plan to cut the top income tax rate, with speculation the wider programme of tax cuts could be financed in part by cutting benefits.

Gove toured fringe events at the party conference in Birmingham to give his verdict on the plan, which he called “not Conservative”, hinting that he could vote against the measure in the Commons.

Shapps, the former transport secretary, used a column in the Times to say “this is not the time to be making big giveaways to those who need them least” because “when pain is around, pain must be shared”.

“This bolt-from-the-blue abolition of the higher rate, compounded by the lack in communication that the PM acknowledges, is an unforced error that is harming the government’s economic credibility,” he said.

Damian Green, a former deputy prime minister, warned the Tories would lose the next election if “we end up painting ourselves as the party of the rich”.

The Tory ex-chancellor George Osborne said it was “touch and go whether the chancellor can survive” the fallout, telling the Andrew Neil Show it would be “curtains” for Kwarteng if his speech on Monday went badly.

The former minister Maria Caulfield said: “I can’t support the 45p tax removal when nurses are struggling to pay their bills.”

Truss has failed to rule out cuts in public spending to help balance the books, and the possibility of benefits facing a real-terms cut as earners on more than £150,000 have their taxes slashed.

Owl is upgrading this recent comment from Tim to a full post.

“Am I alone in thinking that the buck would usually stop, as far as the councils and police elements of this disgraceful period are concerned, with the bosses, the CEO and the Chief Constable?

Am I also alone in having concerns about the conduct of the EDDC officer who attended the meeting to be told of Humphreys arrest, and whether he (or she) did or should have reported it to those who had a need to know – like his/her boss?

It must have been foreseen that both officers stood/stand a chance, however large or small, of being found wanting in the way they carried out their duties. Surely neither should have had anything to do with any element of any enquiry into the matter. They should have recused themselves. Is it not unprofessional to have failed to recognise this from the start ?

In his report, Mark Williams quotes a number of sources and it appears he suggests that they back his officer’s decision to keep the matter, Humphreys’ arrest, confidential. That is his Williams interpretation, others may differ. I see those sources as firstly making it clear that victims, past, present, and potential, must be the primary concern and steps must be taken to have them kept safe. The quoted sources then also talk of the need for confidentiality for an accused, and rightly, of the principle of innocent until proved guilty. However, they then say there will be times others should know – but on a strictly ‘need to know’ basis. I feel ill at ease with a CEO who it appears thinks it not necessary that he knows about a prolific and horrendous sex offender amongst those be has some responsibility for. I know that I would want to know if it were an employee of mine.

While we are at it, let’s get this nonsense about the Cliff Richard case out of the way. That action was against South Yorks police giving confidential information about Richards to the BBC who then spectacularly made it public. Of course they were wrong. In the Humphreys case however there is no suggestion that the information was going in to the public realm. It was to be an exchange of confidential information between senior staff of two statutory bodies, both of whom had responsibilities in regard to the protection of vulnerable people. The case does not support the argument that the EDDC officer acted correctly in maintaining confidentiality. It was not unusual to exchange such information, it is not unusual, it happens all over the country all of the time. I would go so far as to say that without such ‘need to know’ exchanges happening daily between appropriate parties, the judicial system, a part of which I worked in and daily exchanged confidential information, would fall to pieces.

There are many elements of this matter that remain unclear. I have many questions remaining unanswered or unclarified, in between all the gossip. If I get clarification, or answers, I hope to add them in due course. Meantime I share the concerns already expressed.”

[Owl is aware of how much effort Tim and also Mark Hawkins put into checking that the comments they make on this case can be substantiated] 

This government is unelected, unaccountable and out of control = Owl

The City business partner of Jacob Rees-Mogg has been handed a peerage and job as a senior minister by Liz Truss’s government in a move likely to trigger accusations of cronyism.

Rowena Mason www.theguardian.com 

Dominic Johnson, a financier who co-founded Somerset Capital Management with Rees-Mogg, was appointed as a minister in the Cabinet Office and the Department for International Trade.

The announcement was slipped out on the government’s website, which said he had been appointed as of Sunday.

“Dominic Johnson CBE was appointed a minister of state jointly in the Department for International Trade and the Cabinet Office on 2 October 2022,” the statement said.

The appointment is likely to be controversial at a time when Truss, her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, and Rees-Mogg face questions about being too close to the City, after the mini-budget handed substantial tax cuts to financiers and the wealthy.

Johnson is a substantial party donor who has given more than £250,000 and was vice-chairman of the Conservative party between 2016 and 2019. He replaces Gerry Grimstone, the former chairman of Barclays and Standard Life, in his role as trade minister, encouraging inward investment.

Somerset Capital Management is reported to be up for sale, with two of its founding partners now in senior government roles. Johnson recently said he was stepping down as chief executive of Somerset Capital Management.

Rees-Mogg still holds a substantial stake in the investment firm, despite the potential conflict of interest with his role as business secretary.

[Already heading towards half a million – Owl]

Call an immediate general election so that the people can decide who should lead us through the unprecedented crises threatening the UK.

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Government responded

This response was given on 20 September 2022

The UK is a Parliamentary democracy and the Conservative Party remains the majority party. The Prime Minister has pledged to ensure opportunity and prosperity for all people and future generations.

Read the response in full

The United Kingdom is a Parliamentary democracy, not a Presidential one. Following the general election of December 2019, Members of Parliament of the governing party (the Conservative Party) were elected, such that there is a majority in the House of Commons. This remains the case. A change in the leader of the governing party does not trigger a general election – this has been the case under governments of successive political colours.

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 provides that Parliament is automatically dissolved five years after it first meets (unless it is dissolved sooner), otherwise the timing is a matter of discretion for the incumbent Prime Minister (subject to re-established constitutional conventions).

In her speech of 6 September 2022, the new Prime Minister set out three early priorities: to grow Britain’s economy, deal with the energy crisis caused by Putin’s war, and putting the national health service on a firm footing. The Prime Minister is determined to address the challenges the country faces and ensure opportunity and prosperity for all people and future generations.

Cabinet Office

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Re: Truss’ bombshell admission in the Kuenssberg interview

From a Correspondent:

Just reopen the beds in the Community Hospitals for stepdown care. This would make more beds available in acute Hospitals like the RD&E. Although there is a shortage of nurses, many of whom have left due to unbearable work pressure, it is possible that many would like to work in the more intimate environment or our community hospitals. This is what most people want, and would be a useful step towards care needs. For example, Ottery St. Mary hospital used to have a designated “domestic” room where patients recovering from acute procedures could regain their strength and confidence before returning to independence at home.

“I don’t think there is a way out.”

It’s breathtaking to hear that judgement on Liz Truss’ problems from a seasoned former Conservative when the prime minister has not been in charge for a month.

By Laura Kuenssberg www.bbc.co.uk

But instead of a honeymoon Liz Truss’s first weeks in office have resembled a horror film.

A crash in the pound, since recovered, a crash in the polls and the Bank of England having to pump billions into the markets to stop pensions being wiped out.

Tory MPs tell me about phone calls from constituents who are in tears – fearful of losing their homes or businesses as borrowing costs soar.

And those higher costs – and inflation – will hit the government hard, bringing the prospect of dramatic spending cuts.

So instead of anticipating their new leader taking the stage in triumph at the Conservative Party conference this week, the question many MPs and members of the public are asking is how can Liz Truss – who is on our show this week – get out of this mess?

Does she ditch her plans? Stick firmly to the script? Or muddle through?

First, remember what happened to prompt the last wild week.

The government announced a hugely expensive package to freeze energy prices before following that up with a promise of chunky tax cuts that gave back more money to the wealthiest people in the country.

But what they crucially did not do was show how they planned to pay for it – by refusing to publish an assessment from the Office for Budget Responsibility – which examines the government’s tax and spending plans. And on our programme last week, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng suggested there would be more tax cuts to come.

Of course, there’s a healthy political debate about the rights and wrongs of those policies on their own. But what financial markets detest is the notion of spending and borrowing at huge levels without spelling out how and when the bills will be paid.

As one weary sounding Tory MP put it: “The problem wasn’t the numbers, it was that there weren’t any.”

It’s perfectly normal for governments to borrow billions of pounds from the markets but the reaction last week suggested the City had precious little faith that the government’s plans added up.

That’s toxic, because without that confidence, it makes it more expensive for the government to borrow the cash it needs. That makes the cost of loans and mortgages go up for everyone and could mean less money for public services too.

One party insider says that the hit to the Tories’ reputation for running the economy could have “all the hallmarks of a generation-defining setback”.

But all the signs are that the prime minister has zero intention of shifting an inch on this. Here’s what her supporters have told me:

• One cabinet minister: “They have to stick to it now – the idea there can be a volte-face, forget it”
• A minister: “She’s trying to change the direction of the country – the issues are the day to day handling of the politics”
• A Truss backer: “‘What’s happening is a political loss of nerve – it’s entirely within our gift to recover it”

Yet No 10 faces a double nightmare of trying to recover economic and political credibility at the same time. Can they really do nothing?

The head of a large foreign investor said the UK was now “uninvestable”. Trying to keep calm (ish) and carry on just may not be possible.

The pound has recovered much of its losses but it seems a tall order for confidence to bounce back in the same way.

The last week suggests there are serious doubts about the chancellor’s strategy. As one senior investor told me: “I don’t know a single person in the City who thinks he knows what he is doing.”

Politicians I’ve spoken to – fans of the new government or not – suggest moving Mr Kwarteng would be “cowardly” or “wouldn’t make a difference”.

Liz Truss is politically close to her chancellor and a major move like that could cause even more instability. But there is no doubt that No 11’s authority is part of the problem.

A source close to Mr Kwarteng says “we make no apology for reversing an unsustainable high tax path”. But a cabinet minister told me while there’s no chance of an exit now “history shows that chancellors who have moments like this don’t necessarily survive in the medium to long-term”.

While it’s clear neither No 10 nor No 11 will consider a change of approach right now their own party may force them to make some changes so they can muddle through.

First off, there is a rising hunger for ministers to bring forward their full plans for the economy, including spelling out the costs and consequences of their spending.

As things stand No 10 is adamant this won’t be until 23 November. But plenty of backbenchers want it brought forward. One minister suggested the government will have to budge before November, saying: “Give the markets what they want with some more detailed forecasts and some attempt to show that this will work.”

There’s a thirst too to bring forward announcements of the other changes the government wants to make to get the economy going. One senior MP said the chancellor has a chance this week to talk about his “big productivity plans” to show “it’s a wider package, not just tax cuts”.

But the government may yet have to ditch some of its ideas. “They’ll have to walk back some of the things that have caused the most offence,” says an MP.

This could be scrapping the 45% top tax rate which I’m told the whole cabinet was not consulted on and which raised the most eyebrows in the mini-budget.

And it’s clear many Conservative MPs would be reluctant to back it, with one telling me: “If there is a vote on 45p or bankers’ bonuses I won’t vote for them, and neither will colleagues.”

There is growing unease too about the costs and implications of the decisions that have already been made for public spending, and specifically about the possibility of going back on Boris Johnson’s promise that benefits would rise in line with inflation.

One former minister told me the idea was “stupidity squared” because cutting tax for the best-off while giving those on benefits a real-terms cut is a total political non-starter.

Another senior figure predicts a classic climbdown where the government will stick to cutting the basic rate of tax with the classic promise to “consult” on the more controversial elements.

But what if Ms Truss can’t or won’t budge’?

Several MPs say one approach to get the government’s attention would be a kind of strike. They could make it plain the government doesn’t have backbench support by not turning up in the Commons.

But others are already contemplating even more. Extraordinary as it is to say this so soon into a new leader’s tenure, there are already conversations in the party about taking the ultimate action. In other words, if the PM won’t change her plans, her party might have to change her job.

One MP told me baldly in the last week: “They have lost the privilege of governing – I’m going to try and get rid of her.”

A former minister said there was a lot of “bluster and chest-beating” going and talk of removing the PM was “hysteria”, but added: ‘Four weeks of polls like this and we might move.”

Crazy? Perhaps. Wild talk in Westminster is often subdued by inertia. Things change quickly. There are many Conservatives who believe Liz Truss’ plans are an important and badly needed reset.

But if the Tories carry on being battered in the polls, and the market turmoil continues for weeks, all bets could be off.

And if it becomes a question of personal survival, arguably Liz Truss may not have helped her case by giving all the plum jobs to MPs who backed her in the leadership contest.

Remember she wasn’t the favourite choice of MPs to start with. As one senior figure reflects: “There is already a cohort of people who are saying ‘this is nothing to do with us’.”

Liz Truss has a huge chance in Birmingham this week to calm her party, the country and the financial markets, as well as explaining more clearly what she is trying to achieve.

And while there is no remote sense she will backtrack on her ambitions, these first steps in power have created serious doubts in her party, and among the public, about whether she has the right ideas and the backing to make radical changes to the country. Downing Street could very, very quickly become a lonely place.

“The downscaling of Covid testing laboratories since the unveiling of the government’s Living with Covid plan means the UK is “blind” to the behaviour of new potential variants of concern. Major NHS “Lighthouse” labs closed earlier this year in line with the government’s policy on the infection.”

Thomas Kingsley www.independent.co.uk

The UK is heading into a “devastating” Covid wave this autumn exacerbated by a drop in testing and inadequate surveillance of new immune-evasive subvariants, experts have warned.

Covid-19 infections in the UK have risen 14 per cent, according to the latest figures.

Some 1.1 million people in private households tested positive for coronavirus in the latest survey, which covers the seven days to 17 September in England and the week to 20 September in the other three nations, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It is the first time the UK-wide total has been above one million since late August, though it is still some way below the 3.8 million weekly infections in early July at the peak of the wave caused by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of the virus.

Professor Tim Spector, co-founder of the Covid ZOE app, told The Independent the UK was already at the start of the next wave of coronavirus.

“It looks like we’re in the start of the next wave and this time it’s affected older people slightly earlier than the last wave,” Prof Spector said.

He added: “Many people are still using the government guidelines about symptoms which are wrong. At the moment, Covid starts in two-thirds of people with a soar throat. Fever and loss of smell are really rare now – so many old people may not think they’ve got Covid.

“They’d say it’s a cold and not be tested.”

Prof Spector said early data showed new subvariants of Omicron were becoming immune-evasive and could cause the UK “real problems” as winter approaches with the NHS “already on its knees”.

University of Warwick virologist, Professor Lawrence Young, said two Omicron subvariants – BA.2.75.2 derived from BA.2, and BQ1.1 derived from BA.5 – were causing concern in early data and showing signs of being able to escape the immune system.

“What’s interesting about these variants is that although they’re slightly different in how they’ve come about they’ve come up with the same changes to get around the body’s immune system,” Prof Young told The Independent.

“What we’re finding is the virus is evolving around the immunity that’s been built up through vaccines and countless infections people have had.”

He added: “The biggest concern we’re seeing is that in early data these variants are starting to cause a slight increase in infections. In a way, this was to be expected but it does demonstrate that we’re not out of the woods yet at all with this virus, sadly.”

Prof Young also warned that the downscaling of Covid testing laboratories since the unveiling of the government’s Living with Covid plan means the UK is “blind” to the behaviour of new potential variants of concern. Major NHS “Lighthouse” labs closed earlier this year in line with the government’s policy on the infection.

“We’ve really taken our eye off the ball with Covid tests,” he said. “We can only detect variants or know what’s coming by doing sequencing from PCR testing, and that’s not going on anywhere near the extent it was a year ago.

“People are going to get various infections over the winter but won’t know what they are because free tests aren’t available – it’s going to be a problem. Another angle is the economic pressure. If people do feel poorly they’re not likely to take time off work. You have a perfect storm here, really, of inadequate surveillance, people not coming forward for vaccination and the economic situation.”

Both professors called for stronger and more proactive messaging from the government ahead of the colder winter weather, while Prof Young called for the return of mask wearing in poorly ventilated and crowded indoor spaces.

Additionally, public health experts have called for booster jab uptake to increase, with Prof Young noting that new bivalent Covid vaccine boosters, which tackle more than one variant, were key to preventing a devastating wave. But he conceded that there were still question marks around how effective the immunisation would be in keeping vulnerable people from becoming very sick.

Immunologist Professor Denis Kinane, who founded Covid testing firm Cignpost Diagnostic, also raised concerns about the lack of free testing and surveillance of new variants.

“While cases are currently on their way up, we do not yet know the full extent of what is coming in autumn and winter. However, with mass-participation events like the football World Cup taking place in November, international travel growing rapidly, differing vaccination levels across the world, and with most countries having relaxed entry requirements, a rise in cases and emergence of newer variants cannot be ruled out,” Prof Kinane told The Independent.

Sarah Crofts, ONS deputy director for the Covid-19 infection survey, said it was “too early to identify whether this is the start of a new wave”.

Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said it was “clear now that we are seeing an increase” in levels of Covid-19.

“Cases have started to climb and hospitalisations are increasing in the oldest age groups. In the coming weeks, we expect a double threat of low immunity and widely circulating flu and Covid-19, creating an unpredictable winter and additional pressure on health services,” she added.

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus throughout 2022 has remained well below levels seen in 2020 and early 2021, before the rollout of vaccines.

Kwasi Kwarteng reportedly attended a private champagne reception with hedge fund managers at the home of a Conservative donor on the same day he delivered his mini-budget.

Nadeem Badshah www.theguardian.com 

The chancellor is alleged to have given guests information about forthcoming government spending cuts during the event at the west London home of Andrew Law, a financier, on the evening of Friday 23 September.

Kwarteng’s mini-budget earlier in the day, which introduced a £45bn package of tax cuts that will mostly benefit the richest fifth of households, triggered economic turmoil – with sterling collapsing to its lowest level since 1985 and the Bank of England acting to save pension funds.

The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has called for the recall of parliament to address the financial crisis.

The chancellor is said to have told attenders at the reception of austerity-style budget cuts to come while guests drank wine, champagne and cocktails as they congratulated him on the measures announced in the House of Commons, according to the Sunday Times.

A source told the newspaper: “He wanted to give an unadulterated message of ‘growth, growth, growth’ and that’s why he didn’t talk about savings, because otherwise the [news] agenda would have been all about savings – ‘where will you cut? What will you cut? Blah blah blah’ – they’re fully aware they have to make savings.”

Two sources said Kwarteng described that day as a “great day for freedom”.

Another said guests told Kwarteng to “double down” – an approach from which some stood to make profits.

Tory officials told the Sunday Times that Kwarteng attended the gathering at Law’s home, which was arranged by the Conservative party’s campaign headquarters, for an hour to talk through his mini-budget plans and gave a five-minute speech.

The Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman, Sarah Olney, said: “While struggling homeowners saw their mortgage bills spiral, it seems the chancellor was sipping champagne with hedge fund managers profiting from the falling pound.

“How out of touch can you get? We need an official inquiry into this now.”

A source close to the chancellor said: “Any suggestion attendees had access to privileged information is total nonsense.

“The growth plan [published earlier that day] included a commitment to review our tax code to make it simpler, better for families and more pro-growth. The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.”

Kwarteng has said he will set out further details of his economic strategy when he publishes his medium-term fiscal plan on 23 November.

But the Treasury select committee, made up of MPs from all parties, has demanded that the chancellor release a full economic forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility by the end of October.

The Treasury has been approached for comment.

Downhill from now on? -Owl

Richard Foord, Liberal Democrat MP for Tiverton & Honiton, has blamed the Government’s mini-budget for the predicted rise in interest rates. 

Adam Manning www.midweekherald.co.uk 

Following the chancellor’s budget, 26,288 mortgage borrowers across East Devon & Mid Devon are expected to be hit by a “monster” mortgage rate over the coming months, new analysis by the Liberal Democrats has revealed. Almost 1-in-4 homes across East & Mid Devon are owned with a mortgage.

The fallout from last week’s budget is predicted to force the Bank of England to raise interest rates to as much as 5% next year, costing the average mortgage borrower on a Standard Variable Rate a staggering £2,100 per year. 

Those on an average tracker mortgage would face an even higher annual increase of £3,000 per year if interest rates rise to the predicted 5% next year. This would more than wipe out the government’s assistance on energy bills for average households. 

The Liberal Democrats are calling on Liz Truss to recall Parliament and amend the budget which has crashed the pound and seen the national debt skyrocket, as well as leading to predicted rises in mortgage interest rates. 

Commenting on the situation Richard Foord MP said: “Local homeowners have been betrayed by this out of touch Conservative Government. 

“In her first budget as Prime Minister, Liz Truss has chosen to prioritise unfunded tax cuts for big banks and the wealthy, which have sent the financial markets into turmoil.

“It is now mortgage payers across our part of Devon who are left to pick up the tab.

“People across our communities are telling me that they are really frightened by this upcoming interest rate rise. Many simply don’t know how they’ll afford to pay thousands of pounds more a year, especially in the midst of a cost of living crisis. 

“Liz Truss owes local people an apology for this shambolic budget and must recall Parliament to fix this budget before things spiral even more. This government’s experiment has clearly failed, and people across Devon are paying the price.”

The Lizz Truss Dizzee Rascal mashup – Once heard, you wont get it out of your head!

Today (Saturday) is a historic day for beavers in England as they are now recognised as a native and protected species.

Remember that in 2014 it was only public outcry that stopped the culling of the colony of Beavers that had become established in the Otter. – Owl

Lisa Young www.southwestfarmer.co.uk

The new law, that came into force at midnight on October 1, is good news for this mammal which can do so much to restore wetlands across Britain.

Protected status will make it an offence to harm beavers or their habitat without a license.

Classification as a native species means that measures previously available to ‘control’ beavers as a non-native species will no longer apply.

The Wildlife Trusts pioneered the reintroduction of beavers. They are now calling for greater clarity and urgency from the government in relation to the plans for the widespread return of the animals.

The government published guidance in early September which outlines how beavers might be managed in the future.

However, both Beaver Trust and The Wildlife Trusts are concerned that it does not give sufficient support to landowners – and that the proposals lack ambition and detail.

The charities warn that, in their current form, the plans will not deliver the widespread reintroduction of a species which scientific studies have shown can improve water quality in rivers, stabilise water flows during times of drought and flood, store carbon and boost other wildlife.

Harry Barton, Devon Wildlife Trust’s chief executive, said: “A summer of record-breaking heat and drought has highlighted the urgency of making our landscapes more resilient to the unfolding climate emergency.

“Beavers have created green oases in our parched river valleys, because of their ability to store water through dam building and wetland creation. And we know they can reduce peak flows in times of flood and help improve water quality.

“The government’s recent announcements on protection for beavers and their management are good news, but they lack clarity and a sense of urgency. We need a clear plan and timetable so these amazing animals can become part of the wildlife of rivers throughout England.”

In 2015 Devon Wildlife Trust led a successful trial on the River Otter in Devon where England’s first wild population of beavers were reintroduced – 400 years after their extinction due to hunting and habitat loss.

This trial was a great success and the government subsequently agreed that the beavers on the River Otter could remain in the wild and spread naturally to other rivers.

Sandra King, chief executive of Beaver Trust, said: “It remains urgent and vital that the government delivers a clear, ambitious policy and licensing guidance to support beaver restoration in the wild.

“At the end of the day, if we are to welcome beavers back as a native animal our primary objective must be to target positive coexistence with beavers. A properly resourced, forward looking strategy will enable land managers and communities to do this.”

The charities have written to Ranil Jayawardena, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

The Environment Agency knew raw sewage was being illegally dumped into English rivers from wastewater treatment works a decade ago, a leaked report shows.

Rachel Salvidge www.theguardian.com 

However, the agency’s chair told MPs in May that the practice had only recently come to light.

The Environment Agency’s 2012 inspection report for the north-west region shows that a number of sewage works belonging to the water company United Utilities were dumping raw sewage into rivers while failing to treat the required amount of sewage stipulated in their permits.

Water companies are allowed to discharge untreated sewage into rivers, lakes and seas only at times of exceptional rainfall and only then if they are already treating a specified volume of sewage, known as “flow to full treatment” (FtFT).

The report shows that United Utilities was fined £200,000 for FtFT-related breaches at its Cleator sewage works in Cumbria, where flow data showed that only 65% of the required sewage was being treated while raw sewage was being dumped into the nearby river, and that “the storm overflow weir had been set deliberately to this lower level”.

It also shows Environment Agency officers suspected a further 35 United Utilities works to be dumping sewage while failing to treat the required amount of sewage. Officers carried out inspections at nine sites and found issues with FtFT at five works as a result of problems with flow meters and an Archimedes screw, along with “erratic readings” and “gaps in flow data”.

Although the report was written in 2012, the Environment Agency chair, Sir James Bevan, told the House of Commons environment, food and rural affairs committee in May this year, that “until recently, we have not had very good data about what is happening at sewage treatment works”.

Two investigations into the practice are under way. In November, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs announced that “several water companies had come forward” to say that “many of their sewage treatment works may not be compliant”, and that the Environment Agency and Ofwat had both launched sector-wide investigations into sewage dumping.

Defra’s announcement came shortly after campaigners from Windrush Against Sewage Pollution (Wasp) published its analysis of water company data that showed many works were dumping raw sewage in dry conditions and without treating enough sewage.

But Bevan told MPs on the committee that it was the Environment Agency’s insistence that water companies put monitors on their sewage treatment works that prompted water companies to come forward and tell the agency that the data would reveal non-compliance.

“And it was that understanding, which only came to us, frankly, within the last 12 months, that led to the investigation that the Environment Agency is running … that appears to show significant and widespread breaches of … permits,” Bevan told the MPs.

A whistleblower from the Environment Agency said the report “highlights how common” the practice is.

“This was known in 2012 when self-regulation was pushed and water quality monitoring, staffing and regulation was dramatically cut,” they added. “The agency had an opportunity to prevent over 10 years of illegal sewage dumping but chose not to take it, despite the funding being available. They knowingly permitted the illegal activity to continue.”

An Environment Agency spokesperson said the agency has “significantly driven up monitoring and transparency from water companies in recent years. In 2016, there were only 800 event duration monitors on storm overflows, and now there are more than 12,000. This data is allowing us to hold the industry to account on a scale never seen before”.

But event duration monitoring data has not been reliable. The government’s recently published plan to reduce sewage spills “relies on self-reporting of sewage spills by the water industry”, said Prof Peter Hammond, formerly visiting scientist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. But “close scrutiny of submissions to the Environment Agency suggests water companies cannot be trusted to provide complete and correct spill data”, he said.

“The plan will fail unless the Environment Agency takes back control of all monitoring and dramatically improves its regulation,” he added.

An Environment Agency spokesperson said it has recently requested detailed data from more than 2,200 wastewater treatment works “as part of the biggest investigation we have ever undertaken into potential permit breaches – and where there is evidence of non-compliance we will not hesitate to pursue the water companies concerned and take appropriate action”.

“We continue to take tens of thousands of water quality samples ourselves every year as part of our work to keep rivers clean, and we are also investing more this year to further advance our approach to sampling – and we have placed a wide range of new requirements on water companies to significantly increase their monitoring and reporting so that this data is available to all.”

The spokesperson declined to comment on the time gap between the date of the leaked report and Bevan’s comments.

A United Utilities spokesperson said: “These would be serious allegations and we will need to investigate further.”

Ash Smith, the founder of Wasp, said the water industry had “based its business success on ‘sweating the assets’ – not upgrading sewage works and dumping the sewage that it can’t treat into our rivers and seas, largely without interference from the Environment Agency.

“The industry has become reliant on this often illegal activity to make profits and bonuses and to do this it needed the agency to let most of it go unpunished and unchecked.”

Water companies told the Environment Agency that they dumped raw sewage into rivers and seas 372,544 times last year, for 2.6m hours. The real figure is believed to be much higher though, due to underreporting.

How the city could develop over 20 years

Under the “Old Guard” Tory regime how much of this would have been built on the green fields of East Devon under the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan (GESP)?

The residual government imposed “targets” are bad enough.

A thought – how many of the “Old Guard” East Devon Tories, who were always bullish “Build, build, build” supporters, are rowing in behind Truss and Kwarteng? – Owl

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

The first public consultation on a plan that will shape the future of Exeter for the next 20 years is now live.

Once finalised, the long-awaited Exeter Plan – the first new local plan for the city in 10 years – will be the blueprint that shapes the city’s future development.

An initial eight-week consultation on the first draft is now open until Monday 5 December. More will follow before the plan is refined and eventually adopted.

It addresses issues like climate change, homes and jobs, the future of high streets, transport and infrastructure and design quality. Around 30 policies are included, reflecting points raised from the first ‘issues’ consultation on the emerging plan in 2021.

The draft includes the city’s spatial strategy and highlights the benefits of steering the majority of development – around 85 per cent – towards brownfield sites to protect the city’s landscape setting and environmental quality.

It also proposes to consider “modest, greenfield development as a supplement to brownfield schemes” and to protect the “sensitive Exe Estuary and the sensitive hills to the north and north west of the city,” whilst avoiding areas of higher flood risk where possible.

Based on the government’s calculation that Exeter needs to provide 650 homes a year, a number of locations are identified. These include eight large strategic places, smaller council-owned sites, those promoted by third parties and a small number of allocated sites not yet built on. They are:

Large scale brownfield development sites: Mixed use

• Marsh Barton – 1,880 (homes)
• Water Lane – 1,180
• East Gate – 750
• Red Cow – 430
• Sandy Gate – 250
• North Gate – 200
• West Gate – 200
• South Gate – 170

Predominantly residential sites:

• St Bridget Nurseries, Old Rydon Lane – 334 (homes)
• Land to the north, south and west of the Met Office – 225
• Land south of the A379 – 184
• 12-31 Sidwell Street – 51
• Land east of Newcourt Road, Topsham – 43
• Devon & Exeter Squash Club, Prince of Wales Road – 40
• Land at Newcourt Road, Topsham – 38
• Land adjoining Silverlands, Chudleigh Road – 37
• Belle Isle Depot, Belle Isle Drive – 33
• Land west of Newcourt Road, Topsham – 31
• Chestnut Avenue – 26
• Former overflow car park, Tesco, Russell Way – 18
• Land behind 66 Chudleigh Road – 16
• Land east of Pinn Lane – 14
• Land at Hamlin Lane – 13
• Yeomans Gardens, Newcourt Road, Topsham – 13
• Fever & Boutique, 12 Mary Arches Street – 10
• 88 Honiton Road – 10
• Garages at Lower Wear Road – 9
• 99 Howell Road – 6

Introducing the plan to the council’s executive earlier this month, director of city development Ian Collinson said: “I’ve not seen another statutory local plan anywhere in the country that’s brought together the vision for the place in the way that we’ve done here.”

While he said it was a “coherent plan,” Mr Collinson added: “This is not a done deal and there will be lots of opportunities for people to shape it.”

Council leader Phil Bialyk (Labour, Exwick) introduces the document. He says: “Exeter is a fantastic city and I know that all of our residents feel the same way, so it is very important that everyone has a say on how it develops in the future.

“That’s why we want everyone to make sure their voices are heard. We’re reaching out to all of our communities and businesses with the draft plan. It will touch the lives of everyone living in the city as well as those working, studying in or visiting Exeter, so everyone needs to own it and have a say.”

The council has a legal duty to prepare planning policy for the city. The Exeter Plan will replace earlier development plans.

As well as being available on an interactive online platform called Commonplace, hard copies of the consultation can also be found in some public places, as well as at a series of public exhibitions.

A report will be brought back to the council’s executive exploring the comments made in the consultation and how they will shape the next stage of the plan.

Further consultation will then be held next year.

It’s not Putin nuking the economy but Truss and Kwarteng! – Owl

Kwasi Kwarteng has signalled that the poorest people in Britain will have to bear the brunt of his disastrous handling of the economy.

Torcuil Crichton www.dailyrecord.co.uk

In his first public statement since sending the pound plummeting the train wreck chancellor said it was too soon to say if benefits will rise with inflation next year, as promised.

In a move that could herald a new era of austerity the Treasury told Whitehall departments on Wednesday that “efficiency savings” would have to be made to fill the hole in the public finances.

Having announced sweeping tax cuts including for top rate payers in the first 20 days of his job, Kwarteng refused to say if the poorest would see their benefits rise with inflation, which is running at 10 per cent.

The channcellor said: “We are talking about helping people in the round. It’s premature of me to come to a decision about that”.

The Resolution Foundation estimated think tank estimated that £11 billion could be lost to claimants if benefits are uprated by earnings instead of by inflation in the next year amid warnings that would lead to destitution for many.

A couple with two chilidren on benefits woul lose £1061 and a single parent with one child on benefits would lose £607 a year the Resolution Fondation calculated.

In tv comment on Thurday Kwarteng sidestepped questions on tyhe mini budget disaster but insisted that his measures were needed to ensure growth.

He insisted that the Government is “sticking to the growth plan” and that it is “going to help people with energy bills”.

Chris Philp, Kwarteng’s deputy as chief secretary to the Treasury, confirmed this morning that cabinet ministers are being told that they must manage within existing budgets, even though inflation means they may be going down in real terms.

Concern was expressed by trade unions representing public sector workers in response to reports that departments are being asked to draw up plans for cuts as a result of the crisis sparked by the mini-budget.

Civil service departments were already delivering an average of five per cent efficiency savings agreed as part of a review last year.

Dave Penman, the general secretary of the FDA union, which represents senior civil servants said it now appeared the government was asking for those plans to be ripped up “in a state of panic”.

The NHS in Devon plans to create more than 100 new hospital beds across the county.

Stand up all you “value for money” Tories who voted for bed closures in the first place!

Most of the names will pop out of searches of the “Watch” archives.

We have made over 16,000 posts since “Old Owl” took to the wing in October 2013 – “New Owl”

BBC News www.bbc.co.uk

The measure is one part of a plan to reduce the waits of patients attending emergency departments.

It will be paid for using £24m of government money to help Devon’s hospitals discharge patients faster.  

There are also plans for virtual wards where clinical support can include remote monitoring using apps, wearables and medical devices.

Figures from Torbay, North Devon District, University Hospitals Plymouth and the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospitals show that hundreds of patients had to wait more than 12 hours to be seen last month.

Derriford Hospital in Plymouth will get £5m of the money as one of the six most challenged hospitals nationally.

It must be spent on radically reducing ambulance handover delays and includes plans to create more than 40 extra acute hospital beds, and the staff to cover them.

Torbay Hospital is to get 37 new beds, the RD&E gets 18 more, and North Devon District will get 11 additional beds, along with the additional staff needed.

All these plans were put before Devon County Council’s Health and Adult Care Scrutiny Committee on Wednesday.

Councillor Jess Bailey said she was waiting to see the effect of the changes before making a judgement.

“Additional funding is very much welcome but how is that actually going to translate into an improved service for our residents,” she said.

The plans also include 85 virtual hospital beds which will be introduced across the county, with plans for the first of them to go live in December.

They allow patients to remain at home if they wish to and communicate with their clinical team, who can remotely monitor observations like blood pressure, heart rate and respiratory rate.

It’s been a week since the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, delivered his “fiscal event”, heralding “a new approach for a new era” that left the Daily Mail cooing: “At last! A true Tory budget.”

Jamie Grierson www.theguardian.com

The impact of which has been devastating, with even the Tory-supporting Economist saying the government’s reckless incompetence may have already damaged it “beyond repair”. Here we look at the key figures that defined one of the worst probation periods in history.

£65bn

The Bank of England triggered an emergency £65bn bond-buying programme on Wednesday to stem the crisis triggered by Liz Truss and Kwarteng’s growth plan, which put entire pension funds at risk of insolvency.

4.3%

The yields on 10-year gilts – UK government bonds – surged after Kwarteng’s Friday announcement, rising from 3.5% to 4.3% before falling back to about 3.5% on Friday after the Bank of England’s intervention. Yields are effectively the cost of borrowing to an issuer, in this case the UK government. Rising bond yields suggest a lack of willingness among investors to own the debt, as buyers demand a lower price to buy them.

10.6%

The British Retail Consortium revealed food price inflation surged again to 10.6%, compared with an already staggering 9.3% last month.

232

The FTSE 100 has fallen by about 232 points since last Friday as jittery investors took flight.

33

Labour holds a 33-point lead over the Conservatives, according to a poll from YouGov. It is thought to be the largest poll lead held by a political party since the late 1990s. Labour is widely considered to have enjoyed a successful party conference, where it announced plans to form a publicly owned green energy company called Great British Energy.

1.03

The pound fell to a record low of 1.03 against the US dollar on Monday after Kwarteng doubled down on his £45bn package of tax cuts by pledging to go further. The pound-dollar was about 1.12 on the day of the mini-budget, hit its low on Monday, and has returned to close to 1.12 on Friday.

1,621

As of Thursday, spooked lenders had withdrawn 1,621 mortgage products from the market, according to Moneyfacts, amid uncertainty over the future trajectory of base rates and the lack of faith in the government’s plan.

Eight

The prime minister, Liz Truss, experienced a bruising round of eight BBC local radio interviews on Thursday morning. From Bristol to Stoke, and Lancashire to Kent, Truss was up against the ropes for much of the excruciating hour of exchanges, in which she frequently drifted off into uncomfortable silences, resorted to challenging “the premise of the question” and in many cases providing answers to questions that had not been asked.

[Now she is up for the Laura Kuenssberg interview spot on Sunday morning with Rachel Reeves for comparison]