South West to see one of the biggest price hikes – why?

More Tory levelling-up in action – Owl

Sharp rises in standing charges on standard electricity bills will see customers face very different cost increases depending on where they live.

By Rebecca Wearn Business reporter, BBC News www.bbc.co.uk

Customers in South Scotland, Merseyside, North Wales and the South West of England will see the daily payments double from April.

Those in London and the East of England will see increases of less than 60%.

All consumer bills include a standing charge; a fixed daily payment covering the costs of supply and other levies.

The regulator Ofgem caps them for consumers on standard default tariffs in England, Wales and Scotland, although the cap varies by region.

Standing charges are not the biggest part of an energy bill, but they are set to rise by more than £71 a year on average in April.

‘Not surprised’

Jeehan Saleh and Hesham Hussain told the BBC the wide regional differences were unfair at time when energy bills are soaring.

They say they “weren’t shocked” when they learned that standing charges where they live in Garston in South Liverpool would rise by double that of other areas.

“Surprise, surprise, Liverpool again isn’t it,” said Hesham.

“It’s always us being hit the hardest,” added Jeehan. “There’s people in poorer areas where we work who are choosing between food bills and energy bills. Thankfully we’re not in that position but it’s not too far from home. You’re already feeling it in so many areas, this is just another hit.”

The standing charge has always varied depending on where you live, due to different costs to supply homes with power in rural or more remote areas.

However, BBC research has shown that the increase this spring varies disproportionately in different parts of Britain, when comparing standard variable tariffs for electricity paid for by direct debit.

Analysts told the BBC that local suppliers are moving charges which were once part of a consumer’s unit price for energy (which now has a tight upper limit on it) over to their standing charge. They are also increasing standing charges to the maximum level for each region, which means a big jump for some places.

The average increase – of just under 20p per day – will add more than £71 a year to a standard electricity tariff. But in North Wales and Merseyside, the South West, the Midlands, South Scotland and South Wales the rise will add over £80 a year. In London less than £30 will be added.

The cap on standard charges will increase more in some areas than others

Price per day for Single Rate Electricity Meter from April 2022 by British region in order of percentage charge.

• London: up 8p a day to 31p – a 38% increase
• Eastern: up 13p a day to 36p – a 58% increase
• South East: up 17p a day to 40p – a 73% increase
• North West: up 17p a day to 40p – 73% increase
• Southern: up 18p a day to 41p – an 80% increase
• Yorkshire: up 21p a day to 46p – an 81% increase
• North Scotland: up 22p a day to 48p – a 83% increase
• Northern: up 21p a day to 46p – an 85% increase
• East Midlands: up 20p a day to 43p – an 88% increase
• Midlands: up 22p a day to 46p – a 92% increase
• South Wales: up 22p a day to 46p – a 94% increase
• Southern Scotland: up 24p a day to 47p – a 100% increase
• South Western: up 25p a day to 49p – a 101% increase
• North Wales & Merseyside: up 23p a day to 45p – 102% increase

The changes are slightly different for customers using prepayment meters.

It comes as households in England, Scotland and Wales prepare for an even bigger hit when the energy price cap – which limits what consumer pay per unit of gas and electricity – also goes up in April.

In Liverpool, David and Joan Boyle told us their energy bill was rising by £700. They are happy they will be able to manage but say they worry about other people.

Elsewhere there was more concern.

“Standing charges should be the same everywhere shouldn’t they,” said Kev Oloughlin. He was enjoying a day out in the sunshine with his son Leo. He told us they’d “normally shop around every year when bills come in, but at the moment it’s pointless”.

He added: “We’re managing alright with things but we’re conscious of having the heating and things like that on. Everyone’s got to tighten their belt at the minute haven’t they.”

The standing charge not only covers costs such network maintenance, administration fees and certain government schemes. It is also the part of your bill that will contribute to the cost of the 28 energy suppliers that have gone bust since last autumn amid a cost crunch sparked by sharply rising wholesale energy prices.

Ofgem told the BBC that the levy added to bills to pay for costs associated with energy suppliers going bust had been spread equally across the country.

It says standing charges in some regions are increasing more than others because of a reallocation of network costs, the level of which differs between distribution networks.

Unavoidable cost

The BBC contacted major suppliers British Gas, Scottish Power, EDF, EOn, Ovo/SSE, Shell, Octopus and Bulb, and almost all confirmed they now have a majority of customers on a standard default tariff, which is controlled by the Ofgem cap.

Three of the biggest suppliers, British Gas, Scottish and Ovo/SSE would not give details on their charges, calling them “commercially sensitive”.

But EOn, EDF, Shell, Octopus and Bulb confirmed they were increasing standing charges on these tariffs in line with the standard charge cap, with example prices (including VAT) from Bulb, EDF and Shell varying from 32p a day in London and 38p in the East, to around 50p in Northern Scotland and the South West.

And it is not an expense that can be avoided by shopping around. While tariffs actively chosen by customers, such as fixed rate tariffs, are not subject to the default tariff cap on standard charges, there are only a handful of such deals on the market.

Moneysupermarket told the BBC that as of 14 March, there were just five fixed tariffs available to consumers. This compares to about 96 fixed deals available at the same time in 2021.

Standing charges are certainly not the biggest part of your energy bill, and they are dwarfed by the massive increases in the unit price for the energy you use.

But in normal circumstances an extra £80 a year on your energy bill just from standing charges would not go unnoticed, especially as in some areas they are increasing by a lot more than others. So is something fishy going on?

Ofgem assures me that the extra costs for failed energy companies are being spread equally across the country.

But the Energy Networks Association say that no major network developments have happened in any areas in the last six months that would explain the regional divisions.

Local suppliers are moving charges which were once part of your unit price, which now has a tight price cap on it, and shifting them across to your standing charge. Most suppliers are upping their standing charges to the maximum level for each region, which means a big jump for some places, adding insult to the injury of a whopping energy bill.

The take-home message is that the pandemic is very much with us and evolving dynamically, with a long, bumpy road ahead. The option to sleepwalk through this, taking automatic-pilot choices based on what was “good enough” in the first wave is one we adopt at our peril.

(Danny Altmann is a professor of immunology at Imperial College London, who has contributed advice to the Cabinet Office, APPG on long Covid, and the EU)

Danny Altmann www.theguardian.com 

This time in 2020, we watched with horror as the realities of the pandemic and its death toll unfurled. Most hardly dared imagine that effective vaccines might appear in a fraction of the time taken for previous efforts, effectively stemming the pandemic tide.

But despite the success of the vaccines in greatly reducing the odds of hospitalisation or death, viral evolution had plenty more to throw at us. The onslaught of highly immune-evasive variants was, for most of us in immunology and virology, unforeseen. We’d come to think of the coronavirus family as being rather more stable – less error-prone in terms of mutations – than many viruses. And we had never before had to roll out relatively new ways of developing vaccines, involving mRNA or recombinant adenoviruses, at this scale and in the heat of battle.

Having started out brilliantly, the real-life state of play today is self-evidently suboptimal. The vaccines rapidly induce hugely high levels of protective, neutralising antibodies in most people, but these levels wane within months of each sequential dose. Meanwhile, Omicron and the subvariant BA.2 have managed to mutate almost every amino acid residue targeted by protective antibodies, escaping protection. And so you have the unhappy equilibrium currently endured by the UK: more than 300,000 new cases a day, as of late last week, and a continuing caseload of more than 3 million, with hospital admissions and excess deaths holding steady at a new – high – setpoint. All this despite one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

We are living in a precarious truce imposed through frequent mRNA boosters to keep the viral caseload “manageable”. But there are signs this isn’t sustainable, and that a strategy simply consisting of boosters in perpetuity may not be fit for purpose. Recent case surges in Hong Kong, Denmark and Scotland emphasise the fragility of that balance. And new evidence from the past two years suggests that encounters with different variants of Covid or different vaccine types can alter the effectiveness of later jabs in surprising ways – an effect called immune imprinting. This raises the possibility that booster performance could be even less predictable and effective in the future.

Sars-CoV-2 began as a single variant, which we term the Wuhan strain. But we now inhabit a world where no two people share precisely the same exposure history: we have never been infected, or were asymptomatically, mildly or severely infected during any or a combination of the Wuhan to Alpha, Delta, Omicron or BA.2 waves, and we’ve all had somewhere from zero to four doses of diverse vaccines. The combination of these exposures gives each of us a unique immune memory repertoire.

Imagine a huge jar of pills of different colours, each especially good for responding to a given present or future variant. Someone whose experience has been an Alpha infection plus three doses of Pfizer may have brilliantly built up lots of green pills at the expense of others. But this is less good for you if the next variant mainly needs yellow pills. It turns out the order and type of exposure can affect how our immune system responds later on.

In a recent paper reported in the journal Science, we compared protective immunity between people infected in the first wave with the original strain and in the second wave with the Alpha variant. In second wave-infected people, encounters with an Alpha infection plus two vaccine doses gave lower protective (known as neutralising) antibody responses against the Wuhan and Beta variant, yet higher responses against Delta. Given the number of vaccines and strains, these interactions are unpredictable, but will shape how our immunity holds for future waves. It needs more investigation.

These are complex problems demanding careful research, long-term planning, trials and even some intelligent crystal ball-gazing. We must evaluate many approaches. Some places have announced a fourth dose rollout for first generation Pfizer vaccines (which cross-neutralises recent variants, but very suboptimally); some vaccine makers have pivoted to targeting the Omicron spike; others are working on polyvalent vaccines to include several different versions of spike, or clever structural approaches to target those parts of spike that would be the same across all past and future variants, and maybe even across those coronaviruses still awaiting crossover from bats and pangolins.

This latter approach is exciting and the subject of recent efforts across many teams, including research trials through the US National Institutes of Health and at Cambridge University. There are also advanced programmes considering intranasal – nose – vaccination to achieve local mucosal immunity, increasing the chances of blocking transmission at that site altogether, and vaccine platforms that could be much more durable.

The take-home message is that the pandemic is very much with us and evolving dynamically, with a long, bumpy road ahead. The option to sleepwalk through this, taking automatic-pilot choices based on what was “good enough” in the first wave is one we adopt at our peril. We must look at options besides simply boosting through every successive wave. At a time when the US has cut future vaccine research funding, and the UK also needs to maintain its momentum, this should be an urgent priority.

In fact EDDC have already had to double the amount spent on adding “market supplements” to wages in the current FY. EDDC’s lowest salary of £9.25 is below the real living wage of £9.90 and this is before the current cost of living crisis. As a result EDDC has commissioned a study to try to get ahead of the game. See below for local and national picture.

EDDC

Eastdevonnews.co.uk Salary incentives, known as ‘market supplements’, have already cost the authority £137,000 compared to £67,000 for the entirety of the previous 12 months ending in April 2021.

The temporary, fixed-term additional payment is added  to employees’ basic salaries to bring them up to the going market rate for their role, writes Local Democracy Reporter Joe Ives.

EDDC, which employs around 500 people in a permanent and fixed-term capacity, is currently paying 41 such market supplements per month.

A spokesperson said: “Market supplements reflect trends in the marketplace and the difficulty in recruiting suitably qualified staff to the council.

“They are reviewed annually and are a useful tool in filling vacancies where the data shows that the pay we are offering is not comparable and has fallen behind.

“We have seen in the wider economy the difficulties that many in the public sector and private sector businesses have had in recruiting staff and the council is suffering from the same issues.”

A meeting of the council’s Personnel Committee heard the supplements are ‘a last resort’ to compete with other employers.

Its wage bill will rise again in April 2022 when National Insurance contributions for employers and staff rise by 1.25 per cent, costing East Devon a further £119,000 per year.

The Real Living Wage – thought to be the lowest amount of money people require to meet basic needs – is currently £9.90 per hour.

However, EDDC’s lowest salary is £9.25 per hour.

The council says relatively few people are on this level, and that it would look to change this as part of a ‘reward review’ se to be completed in January.

This will assess what changes need to be made to fix recruitment and retention issues.

But the private company undertaking it is has asked for more money on top of the £25,000 already allocated by EDDC.

It says extra work is needed ‘to refine the recommendations and to engage with key stakeholders before having in place a clear set of final recommendations and costings’.

The council will decide later if it wants to pay that supplement.

EDDC is also carrying out a ‘recruitment strategy review’ to see if it can improve its ’employer brand’ and recruit from a more diverse pool of employees in future.

Sidmouth Rural ward member Councillor John Loudoun told the meeting  that portfolio holders often felt ‘anxious’ about having enough staff ,but added that the review showed EDDC was ‘going in the right direction’.

UK unions: pay better wages or expect a mass exodus of essential workers

Toby Helm www.theguardian.com 

Hospitals, schools and the civil service will suffer a “mass exodus” of key staff unless millions of public sector employees receive pay rises that at least match the spiralling rate of inflation, union leaders warn on Sunday.

After the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s spring statement offered no more money to public services last week, the prospect of long and bitter battles over pay look certain as the cost of living crisis grows.

The prospect of pay disputes with the public sector is another big headache for Sunak, whose net approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of minus 4 points (down 15 on two weeks ago) according to Opinium’s latest poll. Before this week his lowest net approval was plus 7.

Last night, the country’s largest union, Unison, representing health service, education and other public service workers, said that unless members received “inflation busting” rises, staff would leave for better paid work in the private sector.

Unison will give evidence to the NHS pay review body on Tuesday and will also highlight this week how many employers on the high street including supermarkets, coffee shops and logistics firms​, are among those offering wages higher than the lowest hourly rates in the NHS.

One of the main teaching unions, the NASUWT, has already submitted evidence to its pay review body calling for a multi-year pay award for teachers, starting with a 12% award from September this year.

The union says that successive years of pay freezes and below-inflation awards mean teachers have suffered a 19% real-terms erosion in their pay since 2010.

Analysis by the TUC of official data shows that average real-terms pay in the public sector was down £81 a month in January 2022 compared with a year before.

In addition the forecasts alongside the spring statement from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show that average real pay for all workers (public and private sectors) is set to fall by 2% in 2022.

Preparing the ground for a showdown with government, the TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, told the Observer that public sector employees had worked during the pandemic “through the most intense days of their working lives”.

She added: “We have been holding meetings of public sector workers with their MPs. Many of them were not able to hold the tears back as they spoke up about how hard it has been at work, and how hard it is at home trying to make ends meet.

“The danger now for the whole nation is that we are at a tipping point. Many public sector workers across services like health, education and social care say they don’t know if they can take it any more. If they don’t at least get a proper pay rise and help to reduce workloads, it will be the final straw. A mass exodus would send shockwaves through every community, and it would damage our economy too. Ministers must be much more alive to this danger. They cannot let it happen.”

Recommendations on public sector pay are made to ministers by independent pay review bodies (PRBs) which receive submissions from the unions and employers. Ministers set the remit of the PRBs and can accept or reject their recommendations.

Union sources said it was crucial that ministers now acted to give the PRBs a clear steer that pay should have to keep pace with inflation to avoid a recruitment crisis.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the fact that the chancellor had announced no more money for public services in the spring statement “is almost bound to result in more hefty real pay cuts for nurses, teachers and other public sector workers”.

He added: “That will come on top of a decade of cuts during which pay in the public sector has done even worse than that in the private sector. It looks like trouble ahead.”

Unison general secretary Christina McAnea said: “If the government doesn’t deliver inflation-busting wage increases across the entire public sector, staff will exit for better-paid, less stressful jobs. That would leave services unable to cope.

“Firms on the high street are paying more to keep and attract the staff they need. That’s what public services need to do too, but it’s the government holding the purse strings.”

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer found 68% of people believe that ministers should be doing more to tackle the cost of living crisis while just 18% said they were doing all they could. Some 57% think the economy will worsen in the next 12 months, against 19% who believe it will improve; 49% believe their personal finances will worsen in the next 12 months against 14% who think they will get better.

Dr Patrick Roach, the NASUWT general secretary, said: “Uncompetitive pay levels are contributing to a worsening picture on teacher supply. Data shows that by 2020, over 40% of those who had entered the teaching profession 10 years previously were no longer teaching.

“Our 2022 teachers’ pay survey indicates that 70% of teachers have considered leaving their job in the last 12 months and that 49% of teachers indicated that their pay had a great deal or a lot of impact on their intention to leave the profession.

“Adding to the pressure on teachers is the soaring cost of living, which is driving more and more into financial hardship. Our survey shows that two-thirds of teachers are ‘somewhat worried’ about their financial situation and 22% are ‘very worried’.”

Owl wonders if this counts as a “win” in terms of productivity as well: big boost to wealth output (GDP) for little effort?

Government paid firm linked to Tory peer £122m for PPE bought for £46m

David Conn www.theguardian.com (Extract)

PPE the government bought for £122m from a company linked to the Tory peer Michelle Mone was purchased from the Chinese manufacturer for just £46m.

The extraordinary profits apparently made by PPE Medpro and its partners in the supply chain are revealed in documents leaked to the Guardian, including contracts and an inspection report for sterile surgical gowns supplied by the firm.

Despite being bought at the start of the pandemic and delivered in 2020, the 25m gowns were never used by the NHS after government officials rejected them following an inspection……

• Ash T1: For the past 2 years it has been showing increasing signs of Chalara – Ash Die Back. I wish to remove the tree completely before Chalara makes it unsafe. Oak T2: This tree is adjacent to a high voltage electric pole on the North side. Regular removal of branches encroaching on the apparatus on the pole, and the free growth on the South side, has left the tree weighted very heavily to the South and towards the road. I propose to remove one large extended lower limb and one smaller one with similar reach on the South side as indicated on attached photos and a very small amount of reduction by thinning of remaining branches on that side that would see the tree far more balanced and resilient. 8 Meadow Bank Kilmington Axminster EX13 7RLRef. No: 22/0620/TRE | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1 : Reduce height of oak from approximately 12 metres to approximately 8 metres; reduce lateral crown spread of oak from approximately 10 metres to approximately 8 metres. T2 : Reduce height of oak from approximately 10 metres to approximately 8 metres; reduce lateral crown spread of oak from approximately 6 metres to approximately 4 metres. Reason : The trees are beginning to dominate the rear garden, they have previously been managed and now further management is necessary. 31 Maple Drive Exmouth EX8 5NRRef. No: 22/0622/TRE | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use of land from agricultural use to storage (within Use Class B8) to enable the expansion of an existing self-storage facility. Rydon Farm Rydon Lane Woodbury Exeter EX5 1LBRef. No: 22/0608/FUL | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Norway Spruce T610 – removal of the Norway Spruce and replacing with a better quality Nordmann Spruce. I have been monitoring it for at least 18 months as it started to show signs of change and deterioration. Many of the lower branches have suffered browning and have eventually died. These signs have also progressed to higher branches at least 40% up the overall height of the tree. Many of the dead branches have broken off in the recent strong winds. It looks like it possibly has a disease called Cytospora Canker. It grows very close to a far more dominant Lawson and the roots and branches of both trees connect. I am increasingly concerned that whatever the disease this Norway Spruce has, may spread to the far more valuable Lawson which now also has some lower branches with browning and die back. Oasis Toadpit Lane West Hill Ottery St Mary EX11 1TRRef. No: 22/0614/TRE | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Prior approval for the change of use of two agricultural buildings into four residential dwellings under class use C3(a) and (b). Egremont Barn Payhembury Honiton EX14 3JARef. No: 22/0621/PDQ | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• G1, Lime : repollard no. of 5 trees back to existing pollard points Reason for works : Pollarding is a cyclical management operation Clanbaniffe New Road Beer Seaton EX12 3HSRef. No: 22/0615/TCA | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• raising height of chimney, enlargement of window and replacement of door Deepway Cottage Deepway Sidbury Sidmouth EX10 0SARef. No: 22/0612/FUL | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Install 3 internally illuminated fascia signs and 1 projecting sign. Specsavers Opticians 8-10 Exeter Road Exmouth EX8 1PLRef. No: 22/0609/ADV | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• General purpose lean-to extension Higher Northcott Farm Blackborough Cullompton EX15 2JFRef. No: 22/0601/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension, two storey side/rear extension and construction of a 3 x bay detached garage with associated first floor annexe. Candys Burgmanns Hill Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5HPRef. No: 22/0600/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Provision of donkey tracks to Beaver Barn field and Tip Field Woods Farm Bowd SidmouthRef. No: 22/0605/FUL | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Demolition of the existing garage and erection of a single storey front extension with alteration to fenestration, alterations to driveway and landscaping to improve parking facilities and access to the front of the house; general enhancement to the front elevation with cladding to the first floor. 48 Douglas Avenue Exmouth EX8 2HERef. No: 22/0606/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey rear extension 10 Marker Way Honiton EX14 2ELRef. No: 22/0578/FUL | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Demolition of shed/gym, two storey side extension with alteration to fenestration. 69 Fraser Road Exmouth EX8 4DHRef. No: 22/0577/FUL | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension 11 Gussiford Lane Exmouth EX8 2SDRef. No: 22/0580/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey rear extension and alterations Hadhams Churchill Axminster EX13 7LZRef. No: 22/0584/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• First floor rear extension, conversion of pitched roof to a flat roof and alterations of fenestration. 21 George Street Exmouth EX8 1LLRef. No: 22/0590/FUL | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1 Beech tree to raise epicormic growth up to 4m to allow light into garden. Cut size 15cm. Westering Crewkerne Road Axminster EX13 5TERef. No: 22/0593/TRE | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposal for front elevation first and second floor window replacement 34 High Street Budleigh Salterton EX9 6LQRef. No: 22/0591/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of single storey flat roof extension to include 2 x rooflights and demolition of existing side facing glazed conservatory. Foxwood Woodhouse Lane Uplyme Lyme Regis DT7 3SXRef. No: 22/0581/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of a greenhouse Greenways Cotleigh Honiton EX14 9HNRef. No: 22/0586/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed loft conversion to include a rear hip to gable roof amendment and a single storey rear extension and side porch extension. 32 Willow Avenue Exmouth EX8 4QSRef. No: 22/0592/FUL | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use from a guesthouse (C1) to a dwelling house (C3) Swan Hill House Swan Hill Road Colyford Colyton EX24 6QQRef. No: 22/0596/COU | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single storey side extension with patio, porch to front with alteration to fenestration. Fairwater Farm Hawkchurch Axminster EX13 5XBRef. No: 22/0576/FUL | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed two storey side extension, new entrance to side and new vehicular access. 73 Nelson Drive Exmouth EX8 2PSRef. No: 22/0582/FUL | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, Oak : DBH 25 inches, located in rear garden left hand rear boundary corner, raise crown to 6m, reduce height and width of tree by up to 1.5m, maximum pruning cuts of up to 120mm. The tree was last reportedly pruned in 2003 and not to good arboricultural practice at that time, since then it has become very dense, due to the poor pruning and is blocking light getting to the property. The tree has become too large for the area that it is in, there are also concerns over the lower lateral branches end loads, along with wanting to reduce the sail effect, after branches were lost during the recent storms. 18 Townsend Road Seaton EX12 2BDRef. No: 22/0561/TRE | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Detailed application for the erection of a roof over existing silage clamp Challenger Farm Membury Axminster EX13 7JTRef. No: 22/0553/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of a bungalow 70 Malden Road Sidmouth EX10 9NARef. No: 22/0547/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, Oak : Reduce lateral spread of crown growing to the South East by approximately 4 metres, removing four branches as illustrated with a no cuts greater than approximately 150mm. T2, Oak : Reduce lateral spread of crown growing to the South East by approximately 2 metres removing one branch as illustrated with an approximate cut diameter of 100m. Reason : To reduce shade over applicant’s garden. 58 Evergreen Close Exmouth EX8 4RRRef. No: 22/0548/TRE | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Conversion of roof space to habitable use with Velux roof windows Flat 2 28 Station Road Budleigh Salterton EX9 6RWRef. No: 22/0555/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Ground mounted photovoltaic panel array. Chatterpark Courtlands Lane Exmouth EX8 5ABRef. No: 22/0546/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Detailed application for the erection of a roof over existing silage clamp Challenger Farm Membury Axminster EX13 7JTRef. No: 22/0554/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• New aluminium and glazed shopfront including DDA compliant ramp, two air conditioning condenser units in a security cage, two extract grilles and a bin store. 38-40 Chapel Street Exmouth EX8 1HWRef. No: 22/0539/FUL | Validated: Fri 18 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use from bed and breakfast to a family home. The Hollies Salcombe Road Sidmouth EX10 8PURef. No: 22/0511/FUL | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use of agricultural land to a secure dog walking and exercise area (use class Sui Generis) Land At Orway Cross Kentisbeare DevonRef. No: 22/0521/FUL | Validated: Wed 16 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of a steel clad building Crealy Great Adventure Park Sidmouth Road Clyst St Mary Exeter EX5 1DRRef. No: 22/0409/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Lawful development certificate for the erection of internal stud walls to create the no.8 ground floor offices in the main millOtter Mill Tumbling Weir Way Ottery St Mary DevonRef. No: 22/0378/CPL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Retaining wall and extension of driveway Lyme Tree House Crewkerne Road Axminster EX13 5SXRef. No: 22/0357/FUL | Validated: Mon 14 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace 8no. doors on east elevation; replace 5no. doors on south elevation; replace 2no. doors and 1no. window on south courtyard elevation and replace 3no. doors and 1no. windows on north courtyard elevation. The Courtyard Thorndon House Rewe Exeter EX5 4EURef. No: 22/0279/LBC | Validated: Thu 17 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Installation of floodlights to court 3, upgrading of existing floodlights to LED on court 1&2. Sidford Tennis Club Byes Lane Sidford Sidmouth EX10 9QXRef. No: 21/3289/FUL | Validated: Tue 15 Mar 2022 | Status: Awaiting decision

A Tory MP was branded was also “callous” for suggesting poverty-hit people are “sitting on benefits” and should “get any job”, as Britain braces for the biggest fall in living standards since the 1950s.

Katherine Fletcher was accused of an “insult” on struggling families after Rishi Sunak’s mini-Budget last week failed to offer the poorest help for the looming cost-of-living crisis despite soaring energy bills and food prices.

The Chancellor refused to reinstate the £20 uplift to Universal Credit and, despite inflation set to average 8% this year, uprated benefits by a measly 3%, meaning low-income families will in fact be hit hardest.

Sunak’s spring statement fell flat because work no longer lifts people out of poverty

Richard Partington www.theguardian.com 

Where did it all go wrong for Rishi Sunak? The most popular chancellor in four decades now pilloried for a spring statement which failed to meet the challenge of the worst hit to living standards since the Suez crisis.

Attacked for promising tax cuts while stealthily driving up the tax burden to the highest level since Clement Attlee was prime minister in the late 1940s, criticised for putting Instagram moments ahead of the serious task at hand, here was an out-of-touch ivory tower politician who would allow living costs to rise faster than pensions and benefits. It was the mini-budget to please no one.

In an earlier time the story would have been very different. Conservative chancellors promising tax cuts would normally enjoy support from their own party. Prioritising the public finances over benefit handouts should be a surefire winner for any would-be Tory leadership contender.

In the arid desert of support for Sunak, it was noticeable that George Osborne was among the few politicians willing to offer him praise, gushing that the Conservatives had been given back a “long-term economic plan” based on controlling spending, reducing the deficit and cutting taxes.

The trouble is the times have changed. Now is not the moment for an Osborne reboot of “fixing the roof while the sun is shining”. In case the chancellor hadn’t noticed, the economic weather has turned – with more than a million people expected to be pushed into absolute poverty.

A decade of austerity cuts to public services has swung public opinion behind more state intervention, not less, with the response to Covid highlighting how much can be done during extreme shocks to the economy.

That Sunak’s spring statement fell so badly flat highlights three things: how much has changed since Osborne was chancellor, how badly Sunak has judged the cost of living crisis and how poorly equipped the neoliberal toolbox is to deal with the big challenges facing the British economy.

A decade earlier the Conservatives had been on a branding exercise to claim the mantle of the workers’ party, taking aim at benefit scroungers to boost employment and discourage a life on handouts.

Sunak’s approach is in that vein – promoting work as the best engine to lift people out of poverty. Having cut benefits by £20 per week last October despite all the warnings, he was hardly going to turn back now.

However, there are serious problems with this approach when hard work isn’t making life any easier while living costs soar, and after a decade of economic mismanagement from the party of government.

The Resolution Foundation estimates average pay levels are on course to be just £18 per week higher in 2027 than they were in 2008, after adjusting for inflation. The upwards path for wages achieved in the years before the financial crisis has stalled in the decade since.

Far from levelling up or building back better, typical household incomes are forecast to fall by 2% between Boris Johnson’s election landslide in 2019 and 2025, making his the worst parliament on record for living standards.

The Tory advert for the world of work could hardly be worse. Failure to take action on workers’ rights has led to the scandal of 800 seafarers being fired without notice at P&O Ferries. Precariousness of employment and low pay are endemic.

Refusing to boost benefits ignores that millions of the lowest-paid workers are forced to rely on them.

Official figures show as many as 40% out of the 5.6 million universal credit claimants are in work. While the government is raising the minimum wage by 6.6% to £9.50 an hour this April, benefit cuts made last autumn and tax rises this spring mean many on low-pay will still be worse off.

Most people living in poverty are either in work or live in a working household, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. As many as one in eight workers are now in poverty – about 4 million people. That is a rise of about 1.5 million from the late 1990s when one in 11 people in poverty had a job.

While research suggests poverty rates fall sharply when people move into work, it’s clear that even sustained employment does not eliminate a life below the breadline in 21st century Britain. An action plan to improve the outcomes of the economy for workers is needed.

This requires a twin-track approach. Firstly, additional help for the poorest with surging energy bills and the rising cost of a weekly shop. It took Boris Johnson less than 24 hours from the spring statement to admit this might be necessary.

Secondly, longer term measures to get the economy moving and provide access to well-paid, secure employment. This should start with an employment bill to ban exploitative “fire and rehire” practices of the type used by bosses at P&O, as well as ending zero-hours contracts.

A decade ago, the public did not believe Labour when the party insisted the best way to cut the deficit was to boost the economy with a Keynesian burst of public investment. Today, the shoe is firmly on the other foot. The Tory argument that the state must step aside and let businesses and workers find their own way through the latest economic shocks falls entirely flat.

Here are the dark horses in the suddenly crowded Conservative leadership race.

ottawacitizen.com 

Conservative leadership hopefuls: Leona Alleslev, Scott Aitchison, Roman Baber, Joseph Bourgault, Marc Dalton, Joel Etienne and Bobby Singh. 

Coastguards have cordoned off a section of Sidmouth beach following a rock fall.

Anita Merritt www.devonlive.com

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) were alerted by police to assist following reports of the latest collapse of the cliffs this morning, March 27.

An MCA spokesperson said: “Our team from Beer Coastguard Rescue Team went and cordoned off the area to keep people safe.”

It was also confirmed that the local council had been informed and was going to put up fencing. Last summer there were five massive falls in one morning along the cliffs between Sidmouth and Salcombe Mouth.

The area is infamous for dangerous cliff falls and signage at along the edge and on the beach advise visitors to keep well away from the area. In three weeks at the end of May and into June last summer, there were four separate cliff falls prompting safety warnings from the local coastguard.

….locals are struggling to afford to stay in this seaside gem as house prices are soaring.

It’s late March and the picturesque seaside town of Seaton is already filling up with visitors as locals businesses begin to prepare for a busy summer. Daytrippers, retired couples and local workers make up for most of the people who I came across on my trip to this sunny spot.

Chloe Parkman www.devonlive.com 

As a first time visitor to this seaside holiday destination, I was anticipating to find a lot fish and chips shops, ice-cream parlours and tourist stores, and for the most part that was true. However, when walking along the seafront I noticed that there were a couple of empty business units, which were yet open for trade in this prime location.

After speaking with Kinmarie Skinner-Parkes, owner of Beanos, I soon found out that one of the businesses had closed after 54 years of trade, and was due to reopen with a new captain at the helm. Kinmare also told me that, despite all of the positives to this beautiful town, there was a sad reality beneath the surface; locals are struggling to afford to stay in this seaside gem as house prices are soaring.

According to Right Move, properties in Seaton had an overall average price of £299,713 over the last year. The majority of sales in Seaton during the last year were detached properties, selling for an average price of £405,815. Flats sold for an average of £167,903, with semi-detached properties fetching £266,977.

Overall, sold prices in Seaton over the last year were 3% down on the previous year and 8% up on the 2019 peak of £278,174.

A house price increase seems to be common theme across many Devon seaside resorts. And so, I decided to speak with Seaton locals to find out what it is really like to call this town home.

Kinmarie Skinner-Parkes, owner of Beanos

Kinmarie: “I moved to Seaton in 2009, I’m from Beer. I love it here and I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else. I think the only thing is that the house prices have gone up so much that the younger families have had to move out of the area.

“It’s definitely linked to second home owners, in my opinion. There are some real prime locations, like there was a penthouse up for sale for nearly £1million.

“I don’t think any of the locals will be able to afford to buy these houses. Young families won’t be able to afford it so they will need to move out of the town.

“I know quite a few who have had to leave due to the prices. It’s these sort of places where people want to come and retire.

“My family member lives in Plymouth, and they are desperate to come back, but the rental prices are between £650 and £900 per month. You need a good job.

“There used to be a problem with drugs here, but that is phasing out now. I think those people know they are being watched and probably do it in their homes now.

“It’s not a place where you walk around and feel unsafe, not at all. This winter it’s been quite good, really business wise. We have stayed open as much as we can, we are governed by the weather here as we have no indoor area. But we were open and busy in January as it was sunny. Lots of people were coming out and about having a walk.

“One of the businesses next door to us has just gone and it was open for around 54-years. I think the new people are going to reopen it and keep it as it is. But I don’t think the town is lacking businesses as such, there are lots in the town. There are hardly any empty shops really.”

Hospiscare volunteer, Patricia

Patricia said: “I am a resident and I have been here for six years. I love living in Seaton and wouldn’t want to move anywhere else. It does get busy in the summer when people come down, we have all the beach huts here and the fun run on Saturday’s.

“I have worked here since I moved here and there are always people here keeping us going. There are lots of things going on here, I mean we have the tramway.

“Seaton is not a wealthy area, Sidmouth is more wealthy. You have young people and retired people here. We had a young lady here who was homeless, so homeless people are here.

“We have a foodbank here too who help those in need. I don’t think locals can afford to stay here really. There is a house around the corner from me which sold within a day of hitting the market – over the asking price.

“People want to move down here. With the pandemic, they are able to work from home. So I think a lot of people can move here. Renting is horrendous.

“My family members live in Berkshire and they are in council properties as the prices are going up and up and up.

“I don’t think there are that many second homes, but obviously people come down for holidays.”

Elderly couple who have lived in Seaton for 25-years say ‘the infrastructure is not good because the shops are not that full’

An elderly couple, who have lived in the town for 25-years and have been married for over 60-years, say the town is lacking things.

The couple, who wish to remain anonymous said: “The town is lacking things. But all of the towns are in the same boat, Sidmouth is exactly the same, they are all heading that way. And of course, the infrastructure is not all that good because the shops are not that full.

“Everything is getting dearer. The only thing we have in Seaton is the tramway which brings people in. Oh, and the supermarket. The supermarket here is the largest around and because of that people come to it.

“We’ve been together 64 years. We were kids together where we lived together before.

“A lot of houses have been built around the supermarket here which has brought the population up but it hasn’t done much for the infrastructure.

“This is certainly not a rich area, all we know from our point of view is the rates of housing are very high. They say that it’s because the town has got a lot of churches. That usually sets the price of these things.

“This is an expensive area we feel. I wouldn’t say the people here are well off though.

“We have lost a lot of shops here in the town, there are things you can’t get. We had Boots here but that’s gone. It’s been a downward trade here.

“There isn’t a lot of crime in the area, but you do get drugs and things here. From a crime point of you it does happen but not really. We lived in London so we have always been aware, always locking our doors and all that. But we love it here.”

Linda Doughty owner of Coastal Crafts Collective

Linda said: “We have had the business for five years and I know the town reasonably well. I think Seaton is lovely, it’s really friendly. I think it’s an amazing coastline and there is an awful lot to do here.

“It gets busy in the summer but it doesn’t get ridiculously busy. I think a lot of people come here as it is nicely busy as opposed to being ridiculously busy.

“My understanding is that actually the proportion of second homes here is a lot less, for example in the Lyme Regis or Sidmouth area.

“One of the reasons is that this is a popular retirement area, I think that’s because it’s flatter than perhaps Sidmouth. And although prices have gone up, it is much more reasonable than Sidmouth or Lyme Regis.

“I would say that although it is a retirement community there are a lot of young people here. It’s a real mixed community which is really nice.

“I am not aware of much crime in the area and I feel safe here. I am certainly not concerned about walking around in the dark or by myself.

“I think the town is back on the up business. I invested in the town five years ago because I absolutely believe the town is on the up. The thing I love about Seaton is that there are a lot of independent and small businesses, rather than a load of chains. It’s a very creative and artistic area.

“I think that gives it a lot more soul and community.”

Visitor – Mrs K Jones

Mrs K. Jones said: “We live in Worcester but we love it down here. We looked to buy a property down here five or six years ago.

“But, it was very difficult because we were living on the east coast and we are of an age where things are difficult to buy a property.

“The prices around here have gone up, the house prices.

“Where we are staying it looks as though people are buying properties. It looks to me like people are buying them and not renting them out, which could mean many people may not be able to come down anymore.

“I think there are a lot of second homes here, and I think over the last two-years people are buying more and coming down. But,I don’t think there is poverty in Seaton, not really.

“I agree that a lot of businesses have closed here. We have been coming down before Tesco opened here. I think Tesco is a good addition but the smaller shops have closed, they are mostly tourist shops now.

“We love it here and will continue to come down as much as we can. But it is a shame that where we are staying, it looks as though they are going to be second homes.”

The education minister was just shown how just much school funding has changed under Tories and it made for awkward viewing.

Kate Plummer www.indy100.com

Nadhim Zahawi appeared on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday show today and was presented with a stark graph showing the change in funding per-pupil between state and private schools since the Conservative came to power in 2010.

The gap between state school spending and private school fees in England has more than doubled in a decade.

Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies found average private school fees were £6,500 (92 per cent) higher than state funding in 2020-21.

In 2009-10, the gap was just £3,100, or about 39 per cent.

With this in mind, Ridge said: “If you are a parent looking at this, what do you think you would conclude about how the Conservatives prioritise state school pupils?”

Zahawi said that there was a financial crisis in 2008 and we had to “tighten our belts” to “try and get the economy back on its feet”. He then said the pandemic triggered huge spending to “protect jobs” and businesses and that he had secured £7bn of extra funding by 2024/5.

But Ridge wasn’t satisfied with his response. “It’s effectively restoring per-pupil funding to 2010 levels. You’ve got a lost decade haven’t you, effectively of growth in funding for comprehensive schools and state school pupils?

“We had to get through the financial crisis,” Zahawi said.

“On the backs of state school pupil funding,” Ridge replied.

Twitter link here: Susanna Reid (@Susanna Reid) 1648370369

It comes after it was announced that all schools in England will have to open for at least 32.5 hours a week.

The length of the school day is currently decided by the headteacher with the governing body in England but the government think increasing the average school day by around 20 minutes will help students. Zahawi is also due to set out the government’s wider plans for schools in England this week in a white paper.

Meanwhile, elsewhere on the show Zahawi defended his predecessor Gavin Williamson receiving a knighthood and said closing schools during the coronavirus pandemic was a “mistake”.

Education cuts in context of Conservative cuts to local authorities – Owl

Central government grants – including retained business rates – were cut 37% in real-terms between 2009/10 and 2019/20, from £41.0bn to £26.0bn in 2019/20 prices. 

The 10 largest providers of children’s social care placements made more than £300m in profits last year, according to research that will fuel concerns over profiteering by private providers.

Michael Savage www.theguardian.com  

As pressure mounts within government, regulators, councils and fosterers over the provision of care for the country’s most vulnerable children, analysis seen by the Observer reveals the growing role of private equity companies in many of the biggest suppliers of care home and fostering places.

Profits among the top 20 providers of care home and fostering places now amount to 20% of their income. Despite the pandemic last year, their overall profits rose by more than 14% from 2020, according to the study commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA).

The findings follow a series of warnings that marketisation of children’s social care is leading to some damaging outcomes. Several figures within the sector have reported children being placed far from their support networks where homes could be built more cheaply, or placed with families who lack the skills to provide the right care.

It comes months after a highly critical Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) warned that the UK had “sleepwalked” into a dysfunctional market for children’s social care, with councils struggling to pay for expensive places that often failed to meet the needs of the child.

An official review of children’s social care in England has been commissioned by the government and will report later this spring.

There are hopes that the review will back reforms in England as a result of a growing consensus around the issues within the current system. Councils have reported that spending on residential placements has increased by 84% since 2015, and that they are now diverting funds from areas such as early help for families to meet the spiralling costs.

The LGA’s analysis, compiled by Revolution Consulting, found that eight of the 10 largest providers of children’s social care, which includes fostering, children’s homes and other services such as residential school places, now have some kind of private equity involvement. Total income of the largest 20 was more than £1.6bn, with 60% made by the largest four providers – Outcomes First, CareTech, Polaris and Priory, now called Aspris.

It also confirms many of the concerns over the level of debt taken on by some of the groups, which many council figures believe is making child social care provision even more precarious. Nine of the top 20 providers had more debts and liabilities than tangible assets.

“What matters most for children who can’t live at home is that they feel they are safe, loved and supported, in homes that best suit their need,” said Lucy Nethsingha, deputy chair of the LGA’s children and young people board.

“While many providers work hard to make sure this is the case, it is wrong that some providers are making excessive profit from providing these homes when money should be spent on children.

“Despite increasing their children’s social care budgets, most councils are overspending each year as costs continue to soar. Yet the largest privately-run companies, which provide many residential and fostering homes for children, continue to bring in huge profits. At the same time, many carry significant levels of debt.

“Stability for children in care is paramount if we are to help them to thrive. It is therefore vital that there is oversight of the financial health of these providers to help catch providers before they fall, and ensure company changes don’t risk the quality of provision.”

Outcomes First, CareTech, Polaris and Aspris, were all asked for comment, but either declined to do so or did not respond.

Some recent cases have brought home some of the long-running issues in children’s care. In January, Ofsted inspectors suspended the licence of one children’s home in Bolton after finding that a boy had not bathed, changed his clothes or been provided with a home-cooked meal for four months.

Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, Britain’s two biggest housebuilders, handed their chief executives bumper bonuses last year, when building bounced back amid a house price boom.

Julia Kollewe www.theguardian.com 

Persimmon boss Dean Finch received a total pay and bonus package of £2.6m last year, the York-based builder’s annual report showed. That compared with £218,326 in 2020, although he only took over as boss in September of that year.

His pay included a £725,000 salary, a £1.3m annual bonus, and a buyout award of £404,384 to make up for earnings he lost out on when he left his previous employer, National Express.

Finch’s fixed pay and benefits of £833,742 was 32 times the £26,005 that Persimmon’s lowest-paid quartile were paid last year.

However, Finch’s package was still well short of the £110m proposed bonus for Jeff Fairburn, who served as Persimmon’s chief executive until November 2018. The bonus was cut to £75m and Fairburn promised to give a “substantial” amount to charity, but he was still ousted in November 2018. It prompted public outrage, especially as the housebuilder partially relied on the government’s help to buy programme for its sales.

The £29bn help to buy scheme, which is aimed at first-time buyers and ends next year, was criticised by a House of Lords report in January for failing to “provide good value for money” for the taxpayer.

Fairburn has since made a comeback with Berkeley DeVeer, a Wetherby-based housebuilder in which he acquired a controlling stake in January 2020. A year later, the company acquired another builder, Avant Homes.

At Taylor Wimpey, the outgoing chief executive Pete Redfern received a total pay and perks package of £2.8m last year, up from £1.1m in 2020, according to its annual report. It included a cash and share bonus of £1.3m whereas in 2020, at the height of the pandemic, the company decided to cancel executive bonuses.

Redfern has run the company for 15 years and is handing over to Jennie Daly, the current group operations director, who becomes chief executive at the annual meeting in late April. Her total remuneration rose to £1.3m last year from £515,000 in 2020.

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Taylor Wimpey’s median pay and benefits for employees is £46,455, while the lowest quartile is paid £31,651.

Revenues at the housebuilder rose 54% from 2020 to £4.3bn last year, similar to its pre-pandemic revenues, while profit before tax jumped 157% to £680m. This was still below its 2019 profit of £836m.

Persimmon made a profit before tax of nearly £1bn last year, up by a quarter from 2019, as it completed 14,551 homes, generating revenues of £3.6bn.

The Berkeley Group chief executive Rob Perrins is the highest-paid boss of a UK housebuilder. He received just under £8m in salary and share bonuses last year. Most of this, £7.3m, was a payout from a 2011 long-term incentive plan, a share bonanza that also prompted public criticism. The seven-strong executive team at the London and southeast-focused builder collectively received around £24m in pay and perks last year.

Persimmon and Berkeley declined to comment.

Friday’s Times Editorial picked up on Richi Sunak’s mention of the need to accelerate growth and productivity. Old arguments rehearsed yet again with three being stressed: private sector investment, education and technical training, and a culture of innovation. It ends with the statement that Britain’s economic prospects and the wealth of the nation rest on breaking a cycle of low productivity. 

We have been here before with our Local Enterprise Partnership HotSW. 

These are all good things to do but Owl’s personal view is that we need to change fundamentally our short-term business and financing culture. Not until companies and financiers stop looking for quick gains but take the long term view, ploughing profits back into investment in the “tools of the trade”: plant, machinery, training and human capital, will we start to improve.

In crude terms: stop asset stripping, seeking to make a quick buck and paying directors obscene multiples of the average wage.

Increasing productivity means getting more output for each hour worked. A happy and motivated staff are key.

It’s not going to happen is it? 

The Times view on Rishi Sunak’s conundrum: Productivity Problems

The Times Leading Article www.thetimes.co.uk 

“Productivity isn’t everything,” the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has written, “but in the long run it is almost everything.” Sustainable gains in living standards are only possible if output per worker goes up and Britain’s performance has long been disappointing. Hence, in his spring statement, Rishi Sunak stressed “creating the conditions for accelerated growth and productivity”.

The chancellor is right to perceive the urgency of the challenge. Unless the puzzle of low productivity can be solved, household incomes will stagnate and the country will become relatively poorer. Mr Sunak’s proposed remedies are sensible but they are long term. The risk is that Britain will meanwhile be locked into a cycle of depressed output, real wages and tax revenues.

For most of the postwar era, Britain’s productivity grew by 2 to 3 per cent a year. Between the financial crash and the pandemic, however, it barely expanded at all. Judged by output per hour, its productivity is roughly at the level of Italy, whereas the American economy is estimated to be a startling 23 per cent more productive than Britain’s. The equivalent figure for France is 18 per cent higher, and for Germany it is 10 per cent. Mr Sunak stresses three issues: private sector investment, education and technical training, and a culture of innovation. These are sound aims. The chancellor points to the fact that in Britain corporate investment amounts to 10 per cent of GDP, compared with an average in countries within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of 14 per cent. He has signalled that in the budget this autumn he will provide further tax breaks for business investment.

In his budget last year he gave generous capital allowances for corporate investment in plant and machinery to the end of 2022-23. Whether an extension of this approach will be effective depends on the investment being something the companies would choose to do if financial conditions allowed. Investment is vital but it can sometimes be wasteful, as happened in the dot-com bubble 20 years ago. Tax breaks will work if they bring forward investment programmes that give a more than proportionate boost to national income. The same test holds for public sector investment in infrastructure.

On vocational training, Britain again lags the OECD average. Tax incentives to boost training of workforces in skills is valuable, but the effects are unlikely to show up in the data in the immediate future. Lastly, encouraging innovation through regulatory reform and tax credits for research and development works with the grain of the market. The history of capitalism is dotted with inventions that boost productivity, such as containerisation or the microchip. The market economy allows entrepreneurs to succeed, and government should encourage this activity with financial incentives.

For Britain the problem is urgent. Its productivity record is poor and it has lagged behind the eurozone and the OECD since 2016. Uncertainty over Brexit has deterred investment and constrained productivity growth. It is Mr Sunak’s task to help turn that performance round. The levers available to him are limited, for wealth creation depends on private enterprise rather than the state. These are the right areas to be looking at, however, and the chancellor’s aims are sound. Britain’s economic prospects and the wealth of the nation rest on breaking a cycle of low productivity.

Independents are on the rise in Plymouth but have, as yet, no formal grouping. 

In Owl’s view “Independents” do need to declare some core principles. 

Philip Churm, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

A former Tory and leading member of Plymouth City Council has been explaining why he will now stand as an independent candidate, against the Conservatives, in the upcoming local elections.  

Cllr Dave Downie (Independent, Budshead) was cabinet member for education, skills and children and young people but was suspended from the Conservative after he challenged a decision by Plymouth Moor View Conservative Association, in January, not to put him forward for selection. 

Cllr Downie said he had appealed the decision to stop him standing for election but wanted an independent panel to hear his complaints. 

“That was my right but it hasn’t transpired,” he said.

“I would assume that Moor View [Conservative Association] were dragging their heels. And then once it came to the next election time I was out anyway. 

“So, I didn’t get my hearing and I was no longer prepared to be a pawn in someone else’s power games.”

As well as leaving the Conservative group, Cllr Downie has also left the Tory party altogether. 

He says his mind was made up after the selection of a new cabinet on Tuesday following the election of a new leader. 

Cllr Richard Bingley (Cons, Southway) was elected as council leader after Cllr Nick Kelly (Cons, Compton) was ousted from his role following a vote of no confidence.  

Cllr Downie, who has lost his cabinet role, says the new cabinet are not up to the job.  

“I did have and do have real concerns about the lack of experience and the cabinet that I think it’s mostly made up of people who have been in council less than one year. 

”So I’m very concerned for the city, for the lack of experience and knowledge that these people are bringing to the table.”

He says he has told the residents in his ward that he will be standing as an independent.

“I have put that out there on social media. I definitely will be standing in Budshead ward.”

He also joins a growing group of independent councillors on the council, many of whom have left mainstream parties. However there is no formal independent group. 

Cllr Downie praised Cllr Chaz Singh (Drake) who left the Labour group in September 2019 and now represents Drake Ward as an independent.   

 “I would love to be elected and work with Cllr Singh, for example,” he said. “Only because we could be called ‘Chaz and Dave.’”  

One third of the city council in Plymouth faces re-election on Thursday 5 May.

The number of coronavirus infections across the UK rose by an estimated 1m compared with the previous week, with figures in Scotland at a record high, data from the Office for National Statistics has revealed.

See below for latest data for infections and hospital Covid cases in Devon. The third wave this year may be peaking but over 75s are in the thick of it. Hospital cases are still rising steeply with consequent knock on effects.

Nicola Davis www.theguardian.com

According to the latest information from the ONS, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, an estimated 9% of the population in Scotland had Covid in the week ending 20 March, about one in 11 people. The figure is the highest recorded by the survey since it began looking at the situation in Scotland in October 2020.

Infection levels also increased in England and Wales, although they decreased slightly in Northern Ireland, with data revealing that about one in 16 people in England had Covid in the most recent week, compared with one in 20 the week before, a rise from about 2,653,200 to 3,485,700 people.

The figure is just shy of the all-time high for England, when about 1 in 15 were estimated to have Covid in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve last year, at the height of the Omicron wave.

Experts have suggested that the recent surge in infection levels in the UK is owing to a number of factors, including the lifting of Covid restrictions to various degrees across the UK, changes in behaviour, waning immunity after the booster programme and – crucially – the rise of the BA.2 variant, which appears to be more transmissible than the earlier form of Omicron.

“The percentage of people with infections compatible with the Omicron BA.2 variant increased in England, Wales and Scotland and decreased in Northern Ireland,” the ONS report states.

Previous ONS figures have suggested that Northern Ireland experienced a rise in BA.2 before other parts of the UK.

On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency reported that cases of the BA.2 Omicron variant were increasing 75% faster than the original variant, BA.1, and now made up almost 89% of Covid infections sequenced in England. There is no evidence that BA.2 causes a greater risk of hospitalisation.

The agency is also monitoring three “recombinant” forms of the coronavirus that can occur when a person is infected with two Covid variants at once. The first, a mix of Delta and BA.1, known as XF, caused a small cluster in the UK but has not been spotted since mid-February. The second, XE, is a combination of BA.1 and BA.2 and is spreading about 10% faster than BA.2 in the UK, with 637 cases identified as of 22 March.

The third, XD, is another blend of Delta and BA.1. While it has not yet reached the UK, it has surfaced in France, Belgium and Denmark, and scientists are watching it closely because it is essentially the Delta variant with the Omicron spike protein.

The ONS figures also show that infection levels rose in all age groups in England. While the percentage of people testing positive was highest in children between two years old and school year 6, infection levels reached unprecedented levels in older adults: among those who are 70 or over, the figure hit an estimated 5.7% on 19 March.

While all regions of England experienced a rise, the highest levels of infection were in the south-east, with about 7.5% of people – or one in 13 – estimated to have had Covid during the week.

Sarah Crofts, the head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “Our latest data show infection levels have continued to increase in England, Wales and Scotland, driven by the rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant.

“Northern Ireland was a few weeks ahead of the rest of the UK in this rising variant, where we now see a welcome decrease. Meanwhile, Scotland has now reached the highest level of any UK country seen in our survey.

“Across England, infections have increased in all regions and age groups, notably the over-50s, who are at their highest levels since our survey began.”

The figures come the week before free community testing ends for most people. After 1 April, most people in England will have to pay to take a Covid test, while advice to stay at home if someone has Covid symptoms is also set to be scrapped.

While vaccinations, improved treatments and a shift in variant severity have all helped to weaken the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths, the recent surge in the number of people with Covid has nonetheless affected the NHS, with an uptick in hospitalisations – including an increase in those primarily being treated for Covid – increasing concerns about infections in vulnerable people and posing logistical challenges. Some hospitals have suspended visiting because of rising infection levels.

Latest data from Devon Covid Dashboard

Confirmed Cases by age

Hospital cases for the whole Devon Integrated Care System i.e. including Plymouth and Torbay

Leaked emails suggest that the Conservative peer Michelle Mone lobbied a health minister on behalf of a company seeking Covid contracts – five months after the point at which her lawyers said she had stopped doing anything for the firm.

David Conn www.theguardian.com 

The documents add to questions surrounding Lady Mone’s account of her involvement in PPE Medpro, which was awarded government contracts worth more than £200m to supply personal protective equipment early in the pandemic.

Several months later, according to the leaked emails, Mone was trying to help PPE Medpro secure a lucrative contract to supply the government with Covid-19 antigen tests.

Mone has repeatedly sought to distance herself from PPE Medpro, whose business she first recommended to the government in early May 2020.

When Mone’s referral of May 2020 became public, she said her involvement in the company went no further than a single recommendation to the then Cabinet Office minister Theodore Agnew. Her lawyer said: “Having taken the very simple, solitary and brief step of referring PPE Medpro as a potential supplier to the office of Lord Agnew, our client did not do anything further in respect of PPE Medpro.”

However, emails seen by the Guardian from October 2020 suggest that Mone was by that point still promoting the company, which was selling Covid tests.

Anthony Page, one of PPE Medpro’s directors, emailed the Tory peer James Bethell, then a minister at the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), on 6 October mentioning Mone’s involvement.

“I write to you in my capacity as UK managing director of PPE Medpro,” Page said. “I understand that Baroness Mone has kindly made you aware of the company and our recently developed coronavirus antigen rapid test.”

The email continued: “By way of introduction, PPE Medpro is a PPE and medical product supplier that, in recent months, has successfully completed orders of 235m units to DHSC.”

In addition to his role as the sole public face of PPE Medpro, Page is a longtime senior employee in the Knox Group, the Isle of Man-based financial services firm run by Mone’s husband, Douglas Barrowman.

Lawyers for Mone, who sold her stake in the Ultimo lingerie company before David Cameron made her a member of the House of Lords in 2015, have said she “was not connected to PPE Medpro in any capacity” and “has no involvement in the business”.

Barrowman’s lawyers have similarly distanced him from the company, but they have not denied that he benefited financially from PPE Medpro’s business.

Last month the Guardian revealed that leaked files appear to suggest that both Mone and Barrowman were secretly involved in PPE Medpro’s mask and surgical gowns business.

The newly leaked emails between Bethell and Page suggest that Mone was subsequently also involved in supporting PPE Medpro’s attempt to secure a slice of the testing market.

In his 6 October 2020 email, Page told the Tory minister that the “consortium behind PPE Medpro” had partnerships with two factories that could produce 1.9m Covid tests a day. “We are able to start production immediately following agreement of terms and on receipt of signed contract and PO [purchase order] from DHSC. I would welcome a dialogue with you and/or your team to get things moving.”

According to a government source, Bethell then referred PPE Medpro to a specialist team of officials and consultants who gave him prompt, attentive service. PPE Medpro, the source added, was among a number of companies referred as potential Covid-testing suppliers that were given a similar priority service.

The source, a government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, described the process of prioritising well-connected firms offering coronavirus testing kits as akin to the government’s “VIP lane” for well-connected PPE firms.

Despite the special attention, Page appears to have become impatient with his treatment by the department, complaining in an email to officials and copying in Bethell and Bethell’s private secretary.

PPE Medpro ultimately failed in its testing bid. However, the government source believes officials gave PPE Medpro undue priority because of its political backing.

“Given their lack of experience, PPE Medpro should have been turned down at the start for testing contracts, which were such a vital part of our response to the pandemic,” the official claimed. “But instead we tutored that company through the process because we knew that senior people were involved: we were very aware that Baroness Mone had held that initial discussion with Lord Bethell.

“The concerns were already starting about the VIP lane that operated for PPE, yet here we were giving a special service to companies just because of their political connections.”

Mone appears to have been still contacting officials on behalf of PPE Medpro four months after her contact with Bethell, and nine months after she first recommended the firm to Lord Agnew.

Jacqui Rock, the chief commercial officer for NHS test and trace, told colleagues in February 2021 that Mone was “incandescent with rage” at the treatment of PPE Medpro over testing contracts, saying they had been “fobbed off”, and was planning to speak to Michael Gove and Matt Hancock about her concerns.

Mone’s lawyer did not respond directly to questions from the Guardian about her referral of PPE Medpro to the government for Covid-19 tests, saying: “She has no involvement in the business.”

Bethell did not respond to a request for comment.

A DHSC spokesperson said there had been “a rigorous scientific validation process with officials to ensure no products were progressed that did not meet the required specification”.

Page denied that the company was given preferential treatment because of Mone’s recommendation, saying that PPE Medpro had already been working with the DHSC, so already had the necessary contacts. He blamed the company’s failure to secure testing contracts on “adverse press” and “the process being frustrated by the various testing phases,” although he said they “passed at each phase”.

Grant Shapps calls for P&O Chief Executive to resign and Boris Johnson agrees.

No doubt, were he to go, there would be relief all round. But a much bigger question would remain. Is the parent company of P&O, DP World, a suitable strategic partner for the government-backed freeport scheme?

Also how surprised should Grant Shapps have been following his meeting with DP World last November? – Owl

P&O Ferries may not regret breaking law, but the UK should regret dealing with its owner 

Nils Pratley www.theguardian.com

More than a few business chancers have appeared before Commons select committees over the years, but it’s hard to recall a chief executive who has admitted that his company carefully assessed its options and decided that breaking the law was its best bet.

Peter Hebblethwaite of P&O Ferries, the firm that sacked 800 seafarers last week, offered candour and cynicism in the same breath. “There’s absolutely no doubt that we were required to consult the unions. We chose not to do that,” he said. For good measure, he said he would take the same decision again.

Naturally, Hebblethwaite laced his account with pleas that P&O Ferries wasn’t viable unless it replaced its UK crew with foreign agency workers being paid salaries as low as £5.15 an hour. No doubt he’s correct about the many millions P&O has been losing amid the pandemic and energy crises, but this was a brazen attempt to claim that protecting wealthy parent DP World’s investment was more important than staying within the law. Trade unions would never accept P&O Ferries’ proposals, said Hebblethwaite, so there was no point negotiating with them.

Via video link from Dubai, Jesper Kristensen, the chief operating officer of marine services at DP World, weighed in that P&O Ferries was not a rogue part of the corporate empire. Hebblethwaite would not be sacked, the mass dismissal of the UK crew had been blessed in advance and DP loved doing business in the UK, where its major investments are the Thames and Solent port terminals.

Government ministers spluttered in the following session to explain why they had not immediately run off to the high court last week. The gist of it was that the Insolvency Service must be given time to get on top of the legal details. In due course, ministers would look to close any loopholes in the law to better protect employees.

Wherever those subplots lead, one move for the government ought to be straightforward: DP World, for all its wealth and state backing, cannot be considered a suitable partner for the UK’s freeport programme. A company that declares a casual relationship with UK employment laws does not belong in a government-backed scheme. Nor, frankly, should it be here at all.

But how surprised should Grant Shapps have been?

P&O Ferries: questions raised over Grant Shapps’ meeting with DP World 

www.theguardian.com 

The UK transport secretary, Grant Shapps, met the DP World boss Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem last November and told him that he was “aware of the issues at P&O Ferries” but recognised “you will need to make commercial decisions”, according to official minutes of the meeting.

The revelation raises further questions about whether Shapps could have acted to head off the mass sackings last week at the Dubai-owned ferry operator.

“The south-west, which was home to the largest area of orchards at the beginning of the 20th Century, has experienced the loss of nearly 24,000Ha (around 74 per cent), over twice the size of Bristol – of its orchards, the single biggest loss in terms of hectares of any region.” 

www.nationaltrust.org.uk (Extract)

The National Trust study is the first comprehensive review of both traditional and modern orchards in England and Wales. Data from historic maps has been compared with data from People’s Trust for Endangered Species (PTES) and Natural England, and analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) mapping technologies from ArchAI Ltd. It is aimed at improving understanding of the historic loss of blossom across landscapes, and the impact on nature and wildlife.

The research exposed a huge 81 per cent decline, (78,874Ha), in traditional orchards in England and Wales – equivalent to an area close to the size of the west Midlands – spelling bad news for nature.

And, even when taking each country in isolation, England’s figures alone revealed a loss of 82 per cent of traditionally managed orchards (77,926Ha) – twice the size of the Isle of Wight.

‘Total blossom’, ie the area from all types of orchard in England has more than halved (56 per cent) since around 1900, with 41,777Ha left growing today. 

In Wales a loss of 948Ha of traditionally managed orchards, 48 per cent, since around 1900, is significant but compares much more favourably than England, likely due to the number of orchards in Wales which are small  family-scale orchards that are not exposed to the development and modernisation pressures experienced in England, particularly in the commercial sector. 

‘Total blossom’ from orchards in Wales has fallen by 38 per cent to 1,240Ha since around 1900.

Tom Dommett, Head of Historic Environment at the National Trust says: “Using cutting edge technology we now have a much better understanding of how we’ve managed landscapes in the past, which is invaluable when thinking about how to tackle the nature and biodiversity crisis that we are facing, and restoring nature.” 

Looking in more detail at orchard loss in the regions, the north of England, whilst being home to only a relatively small proportion of the orchards in England and Wales in 1900, has seen the largest regional declines in orchard area, with 80 per cent in the north-west, 78 per cent in the north-east and 77 per cent in Yorkshire and Humber.  

However, the south-west, which was home to the largest area of orchards at the beginning of the 20th Century, has experienced the loss of nearly 24,000Ha (around 74 per cent), over twice the size of Bristol – of its orchards, the single biggest loss in terms of hectares of any region. 

London and the south-east fared much better with the smallest overall orchard losses of 24 per cent, largely due to the number of significant modern orchards which have been planted.  However, the region has seen a reduction of 84 per cent in the area of traditional orchards, representing big losses in nature value.

In a bid to bring blossom back to landscapes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the charity has now vowed to plant four million blossoming trees as part of its commitment to plant and establish 20 million trees across England, Wales and Northern Ireland by 2030.

It is also planting new traditional orchards at sites to include Stourhead in Wiltshire, Arlington Court in Devon, Kingston Lacy in Dorset, Brockhampton in Herefordshire, Attingham Park in Shropshire, Westhumble in Surrey and is planting new fruit trees at Cotehele in Cornwall which is already home to traditional orchards.    

For further information and to make a donation towards the National Trust’s tree planting ambitions visit www.nationaltrust.org.uk/blossom-watch 

And now banged to rights by the National Audit Office (NAO) which, in a critical report, concluded that the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) did not record properly why it awarded contracts worth nearly £500m to the healthcare firm, Randox.

Matt Hancock, the former health secretary, failed to notify his officials about private messages he exchanged with disgraced Conservative MP Owen Paterson, a healthcare firm’s paid lobbyist, the official watchdog has disclosed.

Will Lloyd unherd.com

The first lockdown deepened during a luridly warm spring. Strange things began to happen in England. Mr Motivator MBE returned to television, and a TikTok about pubs made young men cry. The middle-classes baked until the flour ran out; the bus drivers, cabbies and chefs contracted the virus, then died. The rich just became richer; they were like the aristocrats who viewed Borodino’s bloodbath from the heights. But strangest of all was the daily, hourly, minute-to-minute ubiquity of Matt Hancock.

Long before SARS-CoV-2 was a twinkle in the eye of a Wuhan cave bat, Hancock worked on the student radio station at the University of Oxford.  A contemporary, Gina Coladangelo, reminisced that Matthew read the sport “because he wasn’t good enough to do the news.” Another remembered Hancock as the “butt of everyone’s humour”. He wanted to go to Westminster and be an MP.

He nearly blows himself up. Guildford, 2001. Young Matt does an election leaflet for the Tory candidate Nick St Aubyn. Instead of saying that St Aubyn wanted to “unite” the community, a 22-year-old Hancock writes: “I want to untie the community”. The leaflet lands in 50,000 letterboxes. St Aubyn loses his seat by 538 votes.

Shortly after becoming a junior minister, Hancock compares himself to Pitt the Younger, Disraeli, and Churchill; their achievements are quite well known, but he will make history on his own terms in 2018 when he becomes the first MP to launch a personal app: The Matt Hancock App.

Its creation leads to the memorable onscreen prompt “Matt Hancock would like to access your photos”  — and he appears to get them even if users deny the ‘The Matt Hancock App’ access to their libraries. A spokesman for the Information Commissioner’s office admits, “We are checking reports about the operation of The Matt Hancock App”.

In a party where the average age of a member is 72, Hancock appears young and bright. He is marked out by the early patronage of Osborne, who says of his protege: “In a political system that is full of Eeyores we could do with a few more Tiggers.”

That nickname fits well. Tigger Matt has the tamped energy of the short man, over-exercised. Enthusiastic; readily and sycophantically agreeable. His colleagues mock him — Matt Wankcock and Matt Handjob will be insider nicknames for him — but they are usually reluctant to fire him, even when it makes sense to do so.

***

As the Conservative Party tortures itself in 2019, Hancock decides he would like to be leader. Or raise his profile. So he attacks Boris Johnson and a hard Brexit: “To the people who say fuck business, I say fuck fuck business.”

He fuck fuck’s himself into sixth place in the first ballot of the party’s MPs. Then he withdraws; he spends a month on television and radio praising the new leader… Boris Johnson. Hancock expects a promotion for his breathy verbal parkour. He keeps his job as Health Secretary instead.

To run the NHS is no Conservative’s idea of a dream. Neville Chamberlain was the last Tory Health Secretary to become Prime Minister. The service itself is a patched-up patchwork, a tax sink, an organisation colossally vast and maddeningly confusing. Hancock’s real brief is to make sure the whole thing doesn’t fall apart when people are looking.

The pandemic is the greatest health crisis to face Britain since mad George III thought that an oak tree in Kew Gardens was Napoleon’s ambassador. Fate, or a lab-leak, means that soon everybody will look at the NHS.

***

A relaxed, Prime Minister-less COBRA meeting is held at the end of January 2020. After chairing it Hancock tells reporters the risk Covid posed to the public was “low”. On the same day a study published by Chinese doctors in The Lancet suggests SARS-CoV-2 is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed around 50 million people.

The risk to the UK is deemed so low that on 24 February the Government supplies 1,800 pairs of goggles, 43,000 disposable gloves, 194,000 sanitising wipes, 37,500 medical gowns and 2,500 face masks to China. Looking back at meetings that month, one senior Department for Health official remembers thinking “‘Well, it’s a good thing this isn’t the big one.’”

***

A clip of Boris Johnson, patiently explaining possible Covid strategy to fellow scientific luminary Phillip Schofield goes viral. “One of the theories,” Johnson had said on March 5, was that “perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking many draconian measures”.

Loo paper soon begins to disappear nationwide. Hancock is rolled out — he was always being rolled out, like a new carpet to be trodden on — into a breakfast TV studio to deny that the Government wanted to massacre the Grannys. “Our goal is to protect life and our policy is to fight the virus.”

Then Neil Ferguson releases his controversial paper. It claims hundreds of thousands will die if Britain is left to take the virus on the chin. Sage advises the Government to embark on a full lockdown that day.

It arrives on 26 March 2020, as Covid cases double every 72- hours. Between 89% and 94% of the public support lockdown. And the Grannys? Care home deaths accounted for 40% of Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales during the pandemic.

***

Like other ministers, after the passage of the Coronavirus Act, Hancock develops war fever. “Our generation has never been tested like this”, he writes to a nation frantically, pointlessly washing its hands. “Our grandparents were, during the Second World War, when our cities were bombed during the Blitz… they pulled together in one gigantic national effort.” The allegory is both ugly and lazy, but Britain is a country where poppies are made to wear poppies.

***

Prince Charles opens the first Nightingale Hospital at the ExCel centre in London. He says the Nightingale “will be a shining light”. The hospital is constructed in nine days, and holds 500 extra intensive care unit beds. (For every hundred thousand members of the population the UK has 7.3 intensive care beds — less than Spain, Greece, and Estonia. This lack of provision will mean more deaths.)

More Nightingales open across the country. They cost the taxpayer £500 million pounds. Only three of the seven hospitals end up treating patients. They are described by one MP as a “massive white elephant conjured up by Matt Hancock to create a good headline”.

***

It’s not really worth it, going outside. A family of five is sent home by the police in Conwy after being caught having a day at the seaside. They scuttle back to Merseyside. Police in Derbyshire “divide opinion” when they use drones to film people walking in the Peak District. A “major incident” is declared when thousands travel to Bournemouth beach, to swim, eat ice cream, and burn in the sun. (Belatedly, it is revealed that the “major incident” did not lead to a spike in Covid cases.)

Speaking to Andrew Marr, a concerned Hancock threatens to ban outdoor exercise. “Let’s not have a minority spoiling it for everybody.”

***

Nothing works properly. The Test and Trace App doesn’t work. PPE doesn’t work — because it’s all out of date. Protecting care homes doesn’t work. Dido Harding doesn’t work. The Civil Service literally doesn’t work. Big-hitter commentators start saying that the entire British state doesn’t work. It is described as “simultaneously overcentralised and weak at its centre”.

But ‘The Matt Hancock’ app still functions. In May 2020 the Telegraph reports that it is becoming a “virtual home for online pranksters and trolls”. Posts to the ‘Have Your Say’ section include drawings of cocks, general abuse, and a date invitation for the (then) married Health Secretary.

When ‘The Matt Hancock’ app is updated a year later, access to the ‘Have Your Say’ section is hidden. One of the last posts read: “Is there a portal on here where I can be awarded a Government contract for an area I have little experience of scale please?”

***

Hancock always looks caught between a giggle and a sob. A new round of Covid restrictions makes casual sex illegal. Or at least that’s how Sky News’ Kay Burley interprets the guidance when she interviews him about it. “You are saying that no social distancing is needed in established relationships,” she notes. “But what about people who are not in an established relationship?”

The Health Secretary, embracing his role as national sex cop, confirms that Government rules do ban shagging someone who is not your normal partner. Apropos of nothing, he adds that, fortunately “I’m in an established relationship”.

A few weeks later, the Times reveals that Gina Coladangelo was appointed to a £15,000-a-year advisory PR role in the Health Ministry. The appointment was never declared. Coladangelo and Hancock are described as “close friends”. A source tells the paper: “Before Matt does anything big, he’ll speak to Gina. She knows everything.”

***

He appears to cry on television when the first Pfizer jabs are stuck into the arms of two pensioners: Margaret Keenan and William Shakespeare. “It’s been a tough year for so many people,” he sobs, rubbing his waterless, unreddened eyes.

The Government spends £12 billion on vaccines. Total pandemic spending is estimated to reach £372 billion. Research finds that under-30s will be disproportionately forced to bear the brunt of these costs. They are described as the “packhorse generation”. The median age of death from Covid is 83 years old. There is no national discussion, parliamentary inquiry, or interest from the Government in working out how the old can make it up to the young.

William Shakespeare dies naturally within a few months of taking the vaccine.

***

In January 2021, a week after the virus death toll tops 100,000, a focus group asks some ordinary people questions about the Health Secretary. A man called Jason compares Hancock to Ian Beale from Eastenders — “He wants people to feel sorry for him.” Asked what sort of car he would be, mother of two Donna suggests that he would be “something that breaks down.”

***

During a committee hearing Dominic Cummings says that Hancock should “have been fired for at least 15, 20 things, including lying to everybody on multiple occasions in meeting after meeting in the Cabinet room and publicly”. Cummings then puts a WhatsApp screenshot on his blog that shows the Prime Minister describing Matt as both “hopeless” and “fucking hopeless”.  When he is interviewed about the message, Hancock says: “Boris has apologised for the way that came over.”

***

The story and the footage and the photo are exquisitely simple. After nearly 18 months of tiers, colour-codes, R-numbers, powerpoint slides, and graphs, here is something everyone could understand: a hand on an arse.

Yes, Hancock’s downfall was exquisitely simple. His affair with Gina Coladangelo was unambiguous. It made sense like fairy tales make sense. The Princess in the tower must let her hair down. The wolf is wearing sheep’s clothing. The apple offered by the witch is poisoned. The politician who spent the pandemic agitating for the harshest restrictions, who would describe Professor Neil Ferguson’s lockdown sex fiasco as a “matter for the police”, who ensured that the public could be fined for sitting on park benches, who threatened them with 10-year prison sentences for breaking quarantines, this ogre of the new common sense, would — of course! — be breaking all his rules.

The press is devastating, and relentless. With a deep understanding of public humiliation, the Queen describes Matthew as a “poor man”. He resigns, his only consolation being one of the most Googled news stories of 2021.

***

Hancock keeps coming back, like Covid. His head pops out of the ground. Phillip Schofield asks him: “Was it your dyslexia that meant you misread the social distancing guidelines?” The nation laughs, bitterly. It is reported that, off air, Hancock “almost seemed euphoric… He didn’t seem to mind being the butt of the joke.” He has returned to his student days, but made them the business of the entire country. He buys stonewashed jeans, and new turtlenecks. He does podcast interviews, and goes to the BRIT awards. He says he is writing a book for Harper Collins. Harper Collins says he is not writing a book for Harper Collins, and Hancock never mentions it again. A role with the UN is torpedoed, and a comeback video — unanimously described as “cringe” — is swiftly deleted. It is impossible to tell, as with England’s experience of three lockdowns, whether he is enjoying all this, or if he is the saddest man in the world.

***

Everybody wanted a lesson from the last 24 months. Neat, comprehensible wisdom. An intelligible narrative. They wanted to say that it finally proved that Germany was a better country than England, or they wanted to say that our vaccine programme proved the EU was useless. They thought England’s experience of Covid could tell us about the national character, the flaws in our state, or otherwise be used to justify every kind of pet project, ideological hang-up, or personal vendetta. There was no narrative line. All that the pandemic proved was that what happened a hundred times before in history could happen to us too.

***

The number of children referred for specialist mental health help rises above one million for the first time in 2021. Cases involving those 18 and under increase by 26% during the pandemic. The Royal College of Psychiatrists warns it is “becoming an impossible situation to manage”.

People, including Hancock, like to talk about learning the lessons of the pandemic. So we can prepare better for the next one. They don’t realise that between the million mentally hamstrung teenagers, the NHS waiting list hitting 9.2 million within two years, an endless backlog of cases in criminal courts, and inflation, that the pandemic hasn’t ended yet. It’s barely started.

26 March 2020 — 26 March 2022