Con hold labour second
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % (pt change) |
| Con | David Reed | 14,728 | 28.7 (-21.1) |
| Lab | Helen Dallimore | 14,607 | 28.5 (+17.9) |
| Lib Dem | Paul Arnott | 11,387 | 22.2 (+19.2) |
| Reform | Garry Sutherland | 7,085 | 13.8 (-) |
| Green | Olly Davey | 2,331 | 4.5 (+2.8) |
| Ind | Daniel Wilson | 590 | 1.2 (-) |
| Ind | Peter Faithfull | 454 | 0.9 (-) |
| Climate | Mark Baldwin | 134 | 0.3 (-) |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % (pt change) |
| Lib Dem | Richard Foord | 23,007 | 45.4 (+35.9) |
| Con | Simon Jupp | 16,307 | 32.2 (-28.2) |
| Reform | Paul Quickenden | 6,289 | 12.4 (-) |
| Lab | Jake Bonetta | 2,947 | 5.8 (-8.4) |
| Green | Henry Gent | 1,394 | 2.8 (+0.7) |
| Ind | Vanessa Coxon | 467 | 0.9 (-) |
| Women | Hazel Exon | 244 | 0.5 (-) |
Estimated declaration times of General Election results
For those wanting a guide to when their constituency will declare the winning MP, here is a list of estimated declaration times for the results of the 2024 General Election. The list is based on information compiled by the PA news agency and is intended to be a guide to when the 650 constituency results are likely to be declared.
Lee Trewhela www.cornwalllive.com
All timings are approximate and can be affected by issues such as delays in verifying and counting ballots, or by recounts. Or even storms when it comes to delivering the Isles of Scilly’s ballot papers to the mainland as we have seen before.
There have been substantial boundary changes at this election and this means there is considerable uncertainty around some of the timings below. The list is arranged by the estimated time of declaration, starting with the earliest.
11.30pm:
Blyth & Ashington
11.45am:
Houghton & Sunderland South
12.15am:
Basildon & Billericay
Swindon South
12.30am:
Broxbourne
Sunderland Central
12.45am:
Cramlington & Killingworth
Washington & Gateshead South
1am:
Makerfield
Rutherglen
Tynemouth
Wigan
1.15am:
Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West
Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend
Newcastle upon Tyne North
1.30am:
Barnsley North
Barnsley South
East Kilbride & Strathaven
Leigh & Atherton
Putney
Tooting
1.45am:
Hamilton & Clyde Valley
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Leicester South
Swindon North
2am:
Cambridgeshire North West
Castle Point
Darlington
Dunbartonshire West
Dundee Central
Essex North West
Gateshead Central & Whickham
Glenrothes & Mid Fife
Havant
Hexham
Leicester East
Lewisham East
Lewisham West & East Dulwich
Middlesbrough & Thornaby East
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland
North Down
Peterborough
Redcar
South Shields
Strangford
Swansea West
Torbay
Tyrone West
Warwickshire North & Bedworth
2.15am:
Gower
Knowsley
Leicester West
Paisley & Renfrewshire South
Rayleigh & Wickford
2.30am:
Arbroath & Broughty Ferry
Battersea
Blackburn
Caerphilly
Cannock Chase
Chorley
Clwyd North
Colchester
Durham North
Easington
Fylde
Heywood & Middleton North
Holborn & St Pancras
Jarrow & Gateshead East
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Leeds West & Pudsey
Lewisham North
Newport West & Islwyn
Norwich South
Nottingham East
Nottingham South
Pendle & Clitheroe
Perth & Kinross-shire
Rochdale
Stratford-on-Avon
Vale of Glamorgan
2.45am:
Aldershot
Bedfordshire Mid
Bolsover
Burnley
Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard
Hampstead & Highgate
Harlow
Paisley & Renfrewshire North
3am:
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Airdrie & Shotts
Alloa & Grangemouth
Alyn & Deeside
Amber Valley
Antrim East
Bangor Aberconwy
Belfast East
Belfast North
Belfast West
Bexhill & Battle
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Bolton South & Walkden
Bolton West
Bootle
Bracknell
Brent East
Brent West
Canterbury
Carlisle
Chelsea & Fulham
Cheltenham
Cheshire Mid
Chester North & Neston
Chingford & Woodford Green
Corby & East Northamptonshire
Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy
Crawley
Droitwich & Evesham
Dudley
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Eastleigh
Edmonton & Winchmore Hill
Ellesmere Port & Bromborough
Enfield North
Epping Forest
Epsom & Ewell
Erewash
Fareham & Waterlooville
Fife North East
Forest of Dean
Glasgow North
Gloucester
Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes
Great Yarmouth
Halesowen
Hamble Valley
Hammersmith & Chiswick
Hinckley & Bosworth
Hull East
Huntingdon
Ipswich
Isle of Wight East
Isle of Wight West
Islington North
Islington South & Finsbury
Leyton & Wanstead
Lichfield
Londonderry East
Luton South & South Bedfordshire
Mansfield
Meriden & Solihull East
Midlothian
Mitcham & Morden
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Newark
Newport East
Nuneaton
Oxford East
Pontypridd
Reading Central
Rhondda & Ogmore
Romford
Romsey & Southampton North
Runcorn & Helsby
Rushcliffe
Sefton Central
Shrewsbury
Skipton & Ripon
Smethwick
Solihull West & Shirley
South Ribble
Southend East & Rochford
Southend West & Leigh
Southgate & Wood Green
St Helens North
St Helens South & Whiston
Stevenage
Stockton West
Stourbridge
Telford
Thanet East
Tipton & Wednesbury
Torfaen
Ulster Mid
Walthamstow
Watford
West Bromwich
Whitehaven & Workington
Widnes & Halewood
Worcester
Wrekin, The
Wrexham
–Ynys Mon
3.15am:
Bristol Central
Caerfyrddin
Eltham & Chislehurst
Erith & Thamesmead
Gosport
Hayes & Harlington
Kingston & Surbiton
Llanelli
Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare
Northumberland North
Renfrewshire East
Scunthorpe
Stroud
Witney
3.30am:
Aldridge-Brownhills
Antrim South
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Ayrshire North & Arran
Bedford
Belfast South & Mid Down
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Bexleyheath & Crayford
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Erdington
Bristol East
Bristol South
Burton & Uttoxeter
Bury North
Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket
Chester South & Eddisbury
Chesterfield
Chichester
Chippenham
Cities of London & Westminster
Coatbridge & Bellshill
Coventry East
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch
Derbyshire South
Devon South
Dover & Deal
Dumfries & Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Dunbartonshire Mid
Durham, City of
Ealing Central & Acton
Ealing North
Ealing Southall
Esher & Walton
Exeter
Frome & East Somerset
Gainsborough
Gedling
Glasgow East
Godalming & Ash
Harrow East
Harrow West
Hartlepool
High Peak
Hull North & Cottingham
Hull West & Haltemprice
Hyndburn
Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West
Lancaster & Wyre
Leicestershire North West
Liverpool Garston
Liverpool Riverside
Liverpool Walton
Liverpool Wavertree
Liverpool West Derby
Lowestoft
Luton North
New Forest East
Newton Abbot
Norfolk Mid
Nottingham North & Kimberley
Old Bexley & Sidcup
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton
Penrith & Solway
Plymouth Moor View
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Preston
Queen’s Park & Maida Vale
Rawmarsh & Conisbrough
Reigate
Rother Valley
Rotherham
Scarborough & Whitby
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
Sheffield South East
Sleaford & North Hykeham
Slough
South Down
South Holland & The Deepings
Stafford
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stirling & Strathallan
Suffolk Coastal
Surrey East
Sutton Coldfield
Tatton
Walsall & Bloxwich
Wells & Mendip Hills
Welwyn Hatfield
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South East
Wolverhampton West
Worcestershire West
Wyre Forest
3.45am:
Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley
Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North
Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven
Bristol North East
Bristol North West
Bromsgrove
Carshalton & Wallington
East Ham
Glasgow South West
Glasgow West
Grantham & Bourne
Hertfordshire South West
Redditch
Ribble Valley
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner
Sutton & Cheam
Tamworth
Wimbledon
4am:
Aberafan Maesteg
Altrincham & Sale West
Aylesbury
Ayrshire Central
Barking
Barrow & Furness
Basildon South & East Thurrock
Basingstoke
Bassetlaw
Bath
Bathgate & Linlithgow
Beckenham & Penge
Bedfordshire North
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Beverley & Holderness
Birkenhead
Birmingham Ladywood
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool North & Fleetwood
Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney
Blaydon & Consett
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Boston & Skegness
Braintree
Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe
Bridgend
Bridlington & the Wolds
Brigg & Immingham
Broadland & Fakenham
Buckinghamshire Mid
Bury South
Cambridge
Cambridgeshire South
Cardiff East
Cardiff South & Penarth
Ceredigion Preseli
Chelmsford
Clacton
Clwyd East
Cotswolds North
Cotswolds South
Dagenham & Rainham
Dartford
Devon Central
Devon North
Dunfermline & Dollar
East Grinstead & Uckfield
Eastbourne
Falkirk
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Folkestone & Hythe
Foyle
Glasgow North East
Glasgow South
Glastonbury & Somerton
Goole & Pocklington
Greenwich & Woolwich
Guildford
Hampshire East
Hampshire North East
Hampshire North West
Harborough, Oadby & Wigston
Harpenden & Berkhamsted
Harwich & North Essex
Hertford & Stortford
Hertsmere
Hornchurch & Upminster
Hornsey & Friern Barnet
Kenilworth & Southam
Kettering
Lancashire West
Leeds Central & Headingley
Leeds East
Leeds South
Leeds South West & Morley
Lothian East
Macclesfield
Melksham & Devizes
Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey
Morecambe & Lunesdale
Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke
New Forest West
Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor
Norfolk North
Norfolk South
Norwich North
Peckham
Pembrokeshire Mid & South
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Richmond & Northallerton
Richmond Park
Rossendale & Darwen
Rugby
Salisbury
Sevenoaks
Sheffield Central
Sheffield Heeley
Sherwood Forest
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire
Stockport
Stockton North
Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge
Stretford & Urmston
Suffolk Central & North Ipswich
Suffolk South
Suffolk West
Sussex Mid
Sussex Weald
Thurrock
Tottenham
Twickenham
Upper Bann
Wakefield & Rothwell
Wallasey
Warwick & Leamington
Waveney Valley
Wellingborough & Rushden
West Ham & Beckton
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Wiltshire East
Wiltshire South West
Wirral West
Witham
Woking
Yeovil
York Central
York Outer
4.15am:
Birmingham Perry Barr
Birmingham Selly Oak
Clapham & Brixton Hill
Dorking & Horley
Dulwich & West Norwood
Feltham & Heston
Kingswinford & South Staffordshire
Shropshire South
Streatham & Croydon North
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Vauxhall & Camberwell Green
4.30am:
Antrim North
Ashfield
Ashford
Bethnal Green & Stepney
Birmingham Yardley
Blackley & Middleton South
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
Bradford West
Brentford & Isleworth
Brentwood & Ongar
Bridgwater
Brighton Pavilion
Cambridgeshire North East
Cardiff North
Christchurch
Crewe & Nantwich
Derby North
Derby South
Derbyshire Dales
Derbyshire North East
Dorset South
Edinburgh East & Musselburgh
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh West
Faversham & Mid Kent
Gorton & Denton
Gravesham
Kensington & Bayswater
Lagan Valley
Leeds North West
Leicestershire South
Lincoln
Livingston
Maidstone & Malling
Manchester Central
Manchester Rusholme
Manchester Withington
Milton Keynes Central
Monmouthshire
Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr
Neath & Swansea East
Newry & Armagh
Norfolk North West
Normanton & Hemsworth
Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley
Poole
Poplar & Limehouse
Reading West & Mid Berkshire
Runnymede & Weybridge
Shropshire North
Somerset North East & Hanham
Southport
Stratford & Bow
Surrey Heath
Taunton & Wellington
Tunbridge Wells
Weald of Kent
Worthing East & Shoreham
Worthing West
Wythenshawe & Sale East
4.45am:
Aberdeenshire North & Moray East
Cardiff West
Hove & Portslade
Milton Keynes North
Rutland & Stamford
Tiverton & Minehead
5am:
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Banbury
Bicester & Woodstock
Bradford East
Bromley & Biggin Hill
Broxtowe
Buckingham & Bletchley
Calder Valley
Camborne & Redruth
Cheadle
Congleton
Cornwall North
Cornwall South East
Daventry
Devon South West
Didcot & Wantage
Doncaster Central
Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme
Doncaster North
Dorset Mid & North Poole
Dorset North
Earley & Woodley
Ely & East Cambridgeshire
Exmouth & Exeter East
Filton & Bradley Stoke
Gillingham & Rainham
Hackney North & Stoke Newington
Hackney South & Shoreditch
Halifax
Hastings & Rye
Hemel Hempstead
Henley & Thame
Hereford & South Herefordshire
Herefordshire North
Hertfordshire North East
Hitchin
Honiton & Sidmouth
Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire
Keighley & Ilkley
Leeds North East
Lewes
Louth & Horncastle
Maidenhead
Maldon
Melton & Syston
Newbury
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Northampton North
Northampton South
Orpington
Ossett & Denby Dale
Rochester & Strood
Salford
Sheffield Hallam
Shipley
Somerset North
Southampton Itchen
Southampton Test
Spelthorne
St Albans
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent South
Tewkesbury
Thornbury & Yate
Truro & Falmouth
Warrington North
Warrington South
Weston-super-Mare
Winchester
Windsor
Worsley & Eccles
5.15am:
Gordon & Buchan
5.30am:
Angus & Perthshire Glens
Arundel & South Downs
Ashton-under-Lyne
Bradford South
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Chipping Barnet
Derbyshire Mid
Dewsbury & Batley
Dorset West
Finchley & Golders Green
Hazel Grove
Hendon
Herne Bay & Sandwich
Horsham
Leicestershire Mid
Loughborough
Norfolk South West
Orkney & Shetland
Stalybridge & Hyde
Tonbridge
5.45am:
Spen Valley
6am:
Beaconsfield
Chatham & Aylesford
Chesham & Amersham
Colne Valley
Croydon East
Croydon South
Croydon West
Northamptonshire South
Oxford West & Abingdon
Thirsk & Malton
Torridge & Tavistock
Wokingham
Wycombe
6.15am:
6.30am:
Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber
Farnham & Bordon
Ilford North
Ilford South
Selby
Wetherby & Easingwold
Claire Wright@ClaireWrightInd·
A quick pit stop before my shift at the polling station in #OtteryStMary after delivering these! Very excited and full of happy memories, esp of 2019! Vote @RichardFoordLD in Honiton and Sidmouth and @paularnottLD in Exmouth and Exeter East!
There are 22 acceptable forms of ID, external to vote in person in England, Scotland and Wales, including:
You can use out-of-date photo ID as long as you look the same.
If you wear a face covering, such as a medical mask or a veil worn on religious grounds, you will be asked to remove it briefly, external so polling station staff can check that your ID looks like you.
District council apologises after scores of East Devon residents fail to receive polling cards
The district council has blamed a printing contractor ‘mistake’ for resulting in scores of East Devon residents failing to receive polling cards.
East Devon Reporter eastdevonnews.co.uk
East Devon District Council (EDDC) on Monday (July 1) apologised to residents left without polling cards ahead of Thursday’s General Election (July 4).
EDDC said it was ‘doing all it can’ to make sure East Devon residents affected can still vote.
The district council said polling cards were sent out by first class post on Monday (July 1) to those still waiting.
An EDDC spokesman said: “East Devon District Council has become aware that many residents did not receive polling cards. This was due to an error made by an external printing contractor.
“The contractor has apologised to the council for the mistake, and they will be sending out polling cards for those affected by first class post today [Monday, July 1]. “
The spokesman added: “The council would like to say sorry for any inconvenience caused by this error.
“EDDC is doing all it can to make sure that voters across East Devon can have their say in the General Election on Thursday, 4 July.
“We want to remind people that they do not need to bring a polling card with them to vote, but will need a valid form of official photo ID.”
EDDC said the parishes and wards affected are:
Polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm on Thursday, July 4.
After backing the Tories since 2005, the Sun changes its tune.
In Owl’s view only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories in Honiton & Sidmouth – Richard Foord; and Exmouth & Exeter East – Paul Arnott.
How low can desperate Tories sink? – Owl
It has been an election campaign marked by controversial claims and counter-claims, but a row in the parliamentary constituency of Torbay in Devon has perhaps topped the lot.
Daniel Boffey www.theguardian.com
A local charity for visually impaired people, Devon in Sight, has accused Tory canvassers of “stooping to an all-time low” by allegedly suggesting that the local Liberal Democrat candidate, Steve Darling, is not actually blind.
The comments were said to have been made by a Tory doorknocker calling at the house of an unnamed elderly couple in recent days.
According to a press release issued by the charity, a canvasser in the Livermead area suggested that Darling, who has a guide dog called Jennie, was “faking his sight loss” and “using his guide dog for ‘political purposes’”.
Grahame Flynn, Devon in Sight’s chief executive, who employs Darling’s wife, who is also blind, said: “With Steve Darling’s consent, I would like to confirm that he has been living with a rare genetic eye disease that started in childhood.
“He was formally registered blind in his teens with a deteriorating eye condition that may well end in total sight loss. Furthermore, Steve is registered with the council as severely sight impaired (blind). He first registered with our charity in 1986.
“Steve was on the waiting list for a guide dog for almost three years before being matched with Jennie, his current guide dog. To politicise someone’s disability is highly unsavoury and Steve and everyone living with little or no sight in Devon deserves better.”
When asked to respond to the claims, the Conservative candidate Kevin Foster wrote on X: “Am out with my team regularly and never heard this type of line used. Odd the charity has not been in touch at all about this alleged incident, even to confirm if someone is actually a representative of my campaign.”
Foster faces a tough fight to hold on to the seat, which he won with a majority of 17,749 at the last election. The Liberal Democrats held Torbay until 2015.
Darling, a Liberal Democrat councillor, said he was hopeful for the election and he hoped the row over his blindness would not be a “distraction”, although he said his wife had been particularly hurt by the alleged comments.
“It is sometimes the case that it is the political spouse that feels things more strongly than the candidate,” he said. “My issue is that it seems to pose the question, ‘How can he possibly be registered blind and be capable of doing something like this?’”
The Liberal Democrats’ deputy leader, Daisy Cooper, called for an investigation. She said: “This appears to be a disgraceful and desperate slur from the Conservative campaign in Torbay. It is insulting to everyone living with a visual impairment, and the voters of Torbay deserve so much better.
“Rishi Sunak must immediately condemn these remarks and suspend the Conservative candidate for Torbay while these reports are thoroughly investigated.”
The Conservative party did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Analysis by the Wildlife Trusts found 28 constituencies where there is a “nature majority”. Exmouth & Exeter East is singled out as one that could be decided by voters who care about the natural world. The charity previously found that 84 per cent of Tory voters were dissatisfied with the party’s handling of nature issues.
Adam Vaughan The Times print edition 2 July
Four fifths of Britons back the next government launching a public inquiry into the scandal of raw sewage dumping.
Wet weather helped to drive a record number of discharges into rivers and seas last year, with the duration doubling to 3.6 million hours. Recent polling has shown that a majority of people think Britain’s seas are now too dirty to swim in.
A YouGov poll of 2,000 adults found that 82 per cent supported an independent inquiry into sewage spills. Only 7 per cent opposed it, with 11 per cent undecided.
The research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been right to prioritise the subject in their election campaigning. Support for a public inquiry rises to 92 per cent among Labour voters and 88 per cent among people who voted Lib Dem in 2019.
Despite all the major parties promising to tackle water pollution, the poll suggests a lack of faith in politicians to solve the problem. Only 7 per cent said they would trust “any or most” politicians to deal with the matter, compared with 59 per cent who would not. The remainder either would trust some politicians and not others, or did not know.
“Our new polling data reveals just how deep the scars of the sewage scandal run, with a staggering lack of public trust in politicians to tackle the issue of sewage pollution,” said Giles Bristow, chief executive of Surfers Against Sewage, which commissioned the survey.
“This should be a clear sign to each and every party that their commitments to improve the health of our rivers, lakes and seas are not bold enough.”
The charity has been touring the UK in a double-decker bus, travelling to destinations including Saltburn, Windermere, Hastings and Plymouth in an attempt to ensure that water pollution remains a prominent issue.
The polling ranked environment and climate change as the fifth most important issue for voters, behind the cost of living, health, the economy and immigration, but ahead of tax, housing and Britain’s relationship with the EU. The Times’ Clean it Up campaign has called for stronger regulation to improve water quality.
Conservationists have claimed that dozens of seats could be decided by voters who care about the natural world. Analysis by the Wildlife Trusts found 28 constituencies where there is a “nature majority”. To define a “nature majority” they took the predicted vote majority — based on Electoral Calculus’s poll of polls — then subtracted the number of Wildlife Trust members in each constituency.
In Suffolk Coastal, won at the last election by Therese Coffey, the former environment secretary, and previously a safe Tory seat, the charity calculated a nature majority of 3,695. In Exmouth & Exeter East, where David Reed is the Conservative candidate, the majority was 3,077. The assumption that other parties could benefit in such seats is based on the charity previously finding that 84 per cent of Tory voters were dissatisfied with the party’s handling of nature issues.
“We are putting politicians on notice that votes for nature could change the outcome of many key seats this election,” Craig Bennett, chief executive of the Wildlife Trusts, said.
Dear fellow citizens of East Devon,
On Thursday, we will remove the Conservative government that has broken Britain over the last 14 years. Hundreds of areas will elect Labour MPs, scores will return Lib Dems, and a few, hopefully, Greens. But does East Devon want to be part of this change? Or are we content to remain a Tory backwater, as we have been for 100 years?
This is the question on the ballot paper. Devon has been shockingly taken for granted by the Tories. If we do not remove them now, what will that tell the incoming Labour government? Oh, they stripped our community hospitals of their beds. They left them to be demolished for housing. But, hey, East Devon is still happy to have a Tory to represent us? It would hardly be surprising if a Labour minister concluded: these people are complete suckers – we’ve got other areas to attend to first.
If we want to be part of the change, if we want to be listened to and taken seriously, that means voting for it. And voting for a new government, in this area, means voting Lib Dem – if you vote Labour or Green or other, your vote will be wasted and you could be helping the Tories to cling on.
I’m not a Lib Dem. I don’t think they’re perfect. They’ve made some big mistakes – but so, for that matter, has Labour (remember Iraq?). But under our first-past-the-post voting system – which Labour supports – to be part of this year’s change we have to choose the party that’s most likely to beat the Conservatives in our local area, and in both Honiton/Sidmouth and Exmouth/Exeter East, that means the Lib Dems.
It helps that in both constituencies, the Lib Dems have outstanding, genuinely local candidates – Richard Foord, who has made his mark supporting Seaton Hospital, and Paul Arnott, who has led the fight to end Tory corruption in the district council over the last decade. But even if they didn’t – do you really want another Tory carpetbagger who cares little for our area?
On Thursday, make sure you cast your vote for change. In both our constituencies, the results will be close. There are still too many of our neighbours who ARE content to let the old corruption carry on. They must not prevail. Instead, vote for a different East Devon, and a different Britain.
Please think about this, and pass the message on to your families and friends.
Martin Shaw, former Independent Devon County Councillor.
seatonmatters.org Posted on July 2, 2024
Breaking: Survation, the pollster that @bestforbritain’s @get_voting relied on to recommend a Labour vote in Exmouth/Exeter East, has withdrawn its projection, saying that it ‘has low confidence’ in it. This case no longer has any credibility.
It gives me little satisfaction to be vindicated on this, since much damage has already been done. But there are still over 24 hours before the polls open. The ‘Labour’ tactical case has now collapsed. Caput. The EEE line in
@Survation’s spreadsheet is simply empty.
The line in their spreadsheet for Exmouth & Exeter East is now entirely blank.
The latest projection from the Financial Times shows Richard Foord still lagging behind the Tory by 4.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the same pollsters show Paul Arnott pulling ahead of the Tory by 4.5 per cent in Exmouth.
The lessons. First, these are projections and could be out. Second, they confirm that in both areas, the battle is between the Tories and the Lib Dems. Third, if you want change, vote for it – in our area, vote Lib Dem. If you vote Labour, Green, or other, you are likely to help the Tories cling on. Now that’s something you DON’T want to wake up to on Friday.
This is now moving towards the edges of polling error. – Owl
Exmouth & Exeter East – FT now projects:
Lib Dem 29.8%
Conservatives 25.3%
Labour 19.3%
Reform 18.8%
Green 4.3%
Others 2.5%
Tactical voting and disaffection with mainstream parties make this Thursday a once-in-a-lifetime general election that could reshape the political landscape for decades, the leader of the Liberal Democrats has argued.
Peter Walker www.theguardian.com
With a series of smaller parties expected to make breakthroughs in terms of vote share and seats, Ed Davey said the Lib Dems seemed poised to entrench themselves in a swathe of formerly Conservative territory, particularly in the south.
“I think this is a once-in-a-century election,” the Lib Dem leader told the Guardian between campaign stops in Tory-held seats. “I mean, 1997 was a once-in-a-generation. This is a once-in-a-century.”
Launching the final week of his defiantly unorthodox campaign with a bungee jump at a football ground in Eastbourne followed by a Zumba class in John Redwood’s former seat of Wokingham, Davey insisted such antics had brought attention to party policies in areas such as social care and sewage in rivers.
“We’ve never seen Liberal Democrat policies talked about as much,” Davey said, speaking in a rear section of the party’s battlebus festooned with wetsuit tops and swimming shorts drying on the backs of the seats.
“Isn’t that weird? When we’ve done it from a lectern in a suit at a press conference, people don’t want to talk about our policies. When I fall off a paddleboard or go down a waterslide, people talk about our policies. I like to think we are running a positive campaign, a bit of fun but mixed with serious messages.
“After I did the bungee jump, one of the guys who works at the football club stopped me, saying that he looks after his dad and what we’re saying about care and carers is so important.”
While the Lib Dems are at pains not to formally reveal how many target seats they are focusing on, an initial focus of about 50 has expanded as formerly unwinnable constituencies including Stratford-on-Avon and South Cotswolds have come into play.
Dislike of the Conservatives and an increased willingness for people to vote tactically to remove Tory MPs could have a particular impact in such areas, Davey said.
“We will take out a lot of Conservatives,” he said, arguing that formerly ultra-safe Tory areas such as Henley, once represented by Boris Johnson, and Witney, David Cameron’s former seat, were on “a knife-edge” and Sussex was “looking incredible”.
“People are realising that this is a quite extraordinary election. They need to vote tactically to get out the Conservatives. In many cases, that’s us,” he said. “People should recognise that this is an election where you can literally change the political geography of our country, and for a long time. Be brave, do something different.”
While the same polls that have said the Lib Dems could end up with 60 or more seats have also predicted gains for the Greens and Reform UK, Davey said it could be harder for these parties, given the need for resources and, apart from in a few places for the Greens, a base of local councillors on which to build.
In the 2019 election, Davey said, the Lib Dems “started fighting places where we hadn’t got councillors”, piling up more votes but producing just 11 MPs, an experience that directly led to the current ultra-focused campaign.
Some polls have said the Lib Dems could even end up with more MPs than the Conservatives, becoming the main opposition. Davey, however, said the only target was to overtake the Scottish National party and become the third biggest party in the Commons.
“What I can say is our campaign is [going] better than we had expected,” he said. “I’m going to seats that I hadn’t expected to. But I’m cautious as well, because we don’t want to overstretch ourselves.
“The Tories have helped us because they have been so awful. I’m happy to concede that. The desire to remove this shockingly bad government has focused people’s minds and they have looked beyond the tribal lines in a way which I haven’t seen before.
“There is a chance that people will vote for the party best placed to beat the Conservatives, and people know in the south of England and the south-west that’s us, broadly speaking.”
Much of the campaign success so far has hinged on Davey’s willingness to throw himself into a variety of camera-friendly stunts. He began Monday morning bungee jumping from a platform hoisted by a vast crane at Eastbourne’s football club, yelling “Vote Liberal Democrat!” as he fell.
Hours later, wearing an orange-pink T-shirt and black shorts, Davey was enthusiastically joining in with a Zumba class in a Wokingham park, carrying on for several songs, by which point most of the photographers had stopped taking pictures.
While large parts of Thursday’s outcome remain in doubt, Davey said he was certain of one thing. Asked if this was the most fun he had had in an election campaign, he replied immediately: “Yes. Without a doubt.”
Prediction: Con 61, Lab 470, Lib Dem 71, SNP 15, Reform 7, Labour majority of 290
Our latest poll-of-polls shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives back to 20pc, with Reform up 3pc, and the Lib Dems still with a chance of getting more seats than the Conservatives. Labour is now very likely to form the next government. – Electoral Calculus, July
It is now possible to dream of not only the Tories losing power but also of the Lib Dems forming the opposition.
Think how progressive that combination might be?
Dream further: both of East Devon’s constituencies have Lib Dem members of parliament.
In this dream, our MPs would be members of a select band, not just cannon fodder for the voting lobby.
Think what powerful voices they would have to hold the Government to account AND to promote the interests of this part of the country, neglected for so long by the Tories, and with newly elected Labour concentrating on the north/south divide and its industrial heartland.
Richard Foord has already shown, in two years, how much more effective he has been as a constituency MP (for Tiverton and Honiton) than Simon Jupp (for East Devon).
He also had the added prominence of holding a Lib Dem portfolio (Defence Spokesperson).
In contrast, Simon Jupp was a bag carrying PPS who, by convention, had to avoid criticising his government, in other words he was muzzled.
Latest prediction from Electoral Calculus (who actually poll the constituency) restores a narrow lead for Paul Arnott in Exmouth & Exeter East. Labour trail in fourth place but have taken Lib Dem votes as Reform have reduced Tory votes.
Seaton’s Liberal Democrat MP for the last two years, RICHARD FOORD (pictured speaking), dominated last night’s hustings in the Gateway, leaving his Conservative rival, Simon Jupp (on the right, looking on) a marginal figure. As Richard outlined his decades of experience in the military and education, Jupp’s background a special political adviser seemed no match.
As Richard recounted, it was he who, after hearing from the League of Friends of the threat to a wing of Seaton Hospital, first alerted the local community. Jupp repeated the lie that he had been ‘blocked’ from joining the Hospital Steering Committee which was set up in November at the public meeting I organised, but the simple truth is that – as I reminded the hustings – he didn’t bother to turn up, despite already having canvassed in Seaton for a whole year by that point.
Concerns about the NHS and social care dominated the meeting, but the Party of Women candidate, Hazel Exon, provoked anger from the floor when she answered questions about the environment by repeating her conspiracy theories about trans people – which were ably challenged by a young woman in the audience.
Jupp showed his right-wing instincts by pitching for support from climate and vaccine sceptics, but sounded subdued – the audience had largely moved beyond the Conservatives. Having moved first to Exmouth and then to Sidmouth so that he could call himself a ‘local man’ in his election leaflets, Jupp must now be wondering where he will go after Friday’s result.
The “Prof” (for that is what he is) takes another look at who is best placed to defeat the Tories in Exmouth & Exeter East.
“Let’s look at the fundamentals. The Lib Dems, whose vote Claire Wright effectively took over in 2015, 2017 and 2019, had always been the challengers in the area. The Lib Dems were far ahead of Labour in the local elections in 2023. Claire herself is backing Paul Arnott, the Lib Dem candidate, this time. The one MRP projection which we know takes these factors into account, Electoral Calculus, tips Paul to run the Tories very close, as does the Financial Times. The bookies have him a narrow favourite with Labour as also-rans.“
‘PROJECTED TORY WIN’ says tactical voting site, StoptheTories.vote, for Exmouth & Exeter East (EEE).
Although Simon Jupp only got 50 per cent of the vote last time, leading him to jump ship to what he thought was the safety ground of Honiton & Sidmouth (where the Tories had 60 per cent), it now looks as though his successor could cling on – while Richard Foord blocks Jupp in his new seat.
‘TACTICAL VOTE UNCLEAR. Data is mixed on best progressive party’, says StoptheTories.vote about EEE. ‘VOTE LABOUR OR LIB DEM’. The voters in this constituency are the victims of the new ‘MRPs’, which offer projections of local results based on a national model of how voters with particular social backgrounds might behave, given certain baseline political assumptions. The trouble is that these models are NOT polls of actual local voters, and they are NOT designed to provide tactical voting advice.
Crucially, their baseline assumptions are often flawed. For most of the models, the key assumption is that the opposition parties’ 2019 shares tell us who the main 2024 challenger is likely to be. The problem is that in EEE the main challenger was Claire Wright, the Independent who is not standing this time, who got over 40 per cent. Most of the models simply can’t cope with that, as several pollsters have admitted to me when I’ve questioned them. So they’re left using the 4.5% that Labour got in 2019 to pitch them as the main challenger over the Lib Dems who got 2.8% – although both lost their deposits and these miserable scores tell us nothing about how Claire’s 40 per cent will vote.
Let’s look at the fundamentals. The Lib Dems, whose vote Claire Wright effectively took over in 2015, 2017 and 2019, had always been the challengers in the area. The Lib Dems were far ahead of Labour in the local elections in 2023. Claire herself is backing Paul Arnott, the Lib Dem candidate, this time. The one MRP projection which we know takes these factors into account, Electoral Calculus, tips Paul to run the Tories very close, as does the Financial Times. The bookies have him a narrow favourite with Labour as also-rans.
Yet other tactical sites are using the flawed MRPs to say that Labour are the challengers, Labour are understandably reluctant to look a gift horse in the mouth, and many would-be tactical voters are totally confused. Much damage has already been done, with the opposition vote sufficiently split, perhaps, to let the Tory squeak through. I can only say that, based on my understanding of the fundamentals and the problems of the so-called polls in this case, Paul Arnott remains the best bet to take the seat. He would also be an excellent MP. I hope that voters will give him the chance.
Will Hutton starts the debate about how to fund and build a high-investment, inclusive, high-wage capitalism that treats its workers fairly.
Will Hutton www.theguardian.com
Since its foundation in 1900, the Labour party has had a Janus-headed attitude to capitalism. It needs capitalism to be successful, dynamic and job creating, even while it instinctively distrusts capitalism, with its capacity to generate extreme inequality, invest too little, cut corners and treat workers exploitatively. But its past efforts at improving things – nationalisation, top-down planning, championing strong trade unions or simply (as New Labour did) largely giving capitalism its head – have not been notably successful. It has been a standoff that the Conservative party has ruthlessly exploited.
The seismic importance of 4 July is that Conservatism’s approach to wealth generation – trying to shrink the state whose size and excess taxes supposedly “crowds out” suppressed investment and enterprise – is exposed as a dead end of stagnant living standards and eviscerated public services. Keir Starmer, boxed in by this dreadful legacy, has declared that Labour will become the party of growth and wealth generation. Only thus can sustained tax revenues be generated to repair the ravages of the past 14 years. My bet is that he has a better than even chance of pulling it off – and transforming Labour into Britain’s natural party of government.
His first advantage is that the economic evidence is unambiguous: the state does not “crowd out” investment, and low taxes do little to stimulate enterprise. What capitalism needs from the state is well-designed and stable policy that proactively manages the business cycle while “crowding in” innovation, infrastructure and abundant fit-for-purpose training, and shapes the savings system to deliver buoyant company share prices – the necessary if insufficient precondition for raising capital to enable higher investment and a startup and scale-up boom.
This is becoming the new common sense in business, finance and the financial markets. It is why investors are buying shares anticipating a Labour government, and why Dame Amanda Blanc, CEO of Aviva, suggested last week that there could be as much as £100bn from UK insurers ready to flow into business investment if chancellor Rachel Reeves can deliver her promises on stability. That alone would go some way to lift British public and private investment by £100bn every year – the scale of the gap between us and our major competitors – while not risking another Liz Truss-style fiasco.
One important avenue to growth, cited in the Labour manifesto, is the prospect of unleashing some of the £1.4tn funds fossilised in Britain’s 5,100 defined benefit pension fund schemes. Linked to a generous fraction of workers’ final year’s pay, they have become a financial burden. To wind them up, companies have closed them to new members, creating a £1.4tn universe of wholly risk-averse zombie funds. They need to be consolidated into bigger funds that can take risks – and the money made to work to accelerate Britain’s investment recovery.
There is the tool to hand. One of the most startling policy successes of the past 20 years has been New Labour’s Pension Protection Fund (PPF), established in 2005, which takes over the management of distressed defined benefit pension funds, guaranteeing the future pensions. Managed with great professionalism, the PPF has already consolidated more than 1,100 pension funds and is currently worth £33bn with a £12bn investment surplus – one of the most successful funds of its type globally in securing high investment performance. Industry insiders believe that there is another £600bn locked up in small, high-cost zombie funds that could be liberated for productive investment.
The first staging post would be to scale up the current PPF to at least £100bn. Conservative objections that this would leave the pension funds with no fiscal backstop can be easily overcome; backed by the state, the PPF will become the new backstop via a guarantee that does not score as public borrowing. Nor, because the PPF is so rich, would the state ever be at risk. Reeves will be on her way.
After all, such a guarantee is already delegated to the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB) to underwrite £10bn of commercial bank lending on infrastructure projects. Reeves should lift the facility to £50bn. A similar guarantee would enable the British Business Bank (BBB) to offer venture debt to startups and scale-ups, and seek out promising companies to back: there is an estimated annual shortage of up to £10bn of venture lending that needs to be closed. My understanding is that a scaled-up PPF would support both the UKIB and BBB; at a stroke, Britain would have equipped itself with an investment trio of financial institutions dedicated to serious multibillion-pound economic development and resultant growth – without additional direct government borrowing. It’s a fiscal get-out-of-jail-free card.
Against this background, Reeves can use her proposed rewriting of the fiscal rules to supplement public investment directly. The Financial Times recently reported that asset managers would buy an extra £20bn-£30bn of government debt if it were earmarked for investment projects and R&D. Altogether, the UK’s growth rate could accelerate to above 2.5% by the end of the parliament, with even the dropped £28bn target for green spending met. Growth would be higher again the more Britain regained access to lost EU markets.
In the near future, before growth kicks in, Starmer and Reeves may have to increase the current yields from capital gains, inheritance and council tax by up to another 1% of GDP. But overall there will be the funds to resuscitate education, the NHS, local government, defence, the criminal justice system, the arts and welfare. Do I dream? Some commitments are in the manifesto, others set out in Reeves’ Mais lecture in March, others have not been excluded during the election campaign, and the ambitious teams in the investment trio are all standing by for the call.
Some in the Treasury will oppose. And never underestimate the conservatism and parochialism of the pension fund world. Geopolitics may kill all hopes. But Britain under Labour could at last fulfil its economic promise and build a high-investment, inclusive, high-wage capitalism that treats its workers fairly. This time, no mistakes.
East Devon Watch 