… Is it a good deal?
That depends who you ask. EDF, the UK government or British consumers.
EDF: The ex-CFO has voted with his feet. It’s not hard to see why he has such misgivings. Despite being the experts, EDF’s recent track record on building reactors is poor. Smaller but similar projects in France, Finland and China are years behind schedule and massively over budget.
On its own, EDF could not take this on as it could ruin the company. The government has agreed in principle to underwrite it by giving EDF the freedom to sell off the family silver (like a stake in the French equivalent of National Grid) and it may need to raise more cash by creating efficiencies (code for sacking people).
French unions hold seats on the EDF board. On the other hand, if it pulls it off, it will be the most profitable project it has ever done. …
… What does it mean for UK Government?
Some of the high risks have been removed. The UK government won’t pay a penny if the project isn’t completed. EDF is on the hook for the risk of delivering a fiendishly difficult and delay-strewn process. What is clear is that the UK government has placed great political capital in infrastructure capital.
The message seems to be – please for goodness sake build something. The earth movers are standing by – can it afford to keep them idle much longer?
What does it mean for UK consumers?
This is a tough one. The price EDF has negotiated for the electricity that Hinkley will one day produce looks very high by current standards. £92.50 per megawatt hour of electricity is nearly three times the current price.
Sounds mad – but the reality is that NO ONE knows what the average price of electricity will be in the decades between 2025 and 2060. Add to that when the decommissioning costs are factored in, the future carbon penalties for coal and gas are unknown, and that nuclear counts as a near zero carbon source of energy, and the maths is practically impossible to do.
This sleeping giant is due to wake in May. Whether it crushes EDF underfoot or makes a colossal contribution to its bottom line will take at least a decade to determine. The UK and French governments are in this up to their neck and it’s hard to see them pulling out now.”