Our local LEPs: do they know something nobody else in western Europe knows?

The plan to double our regional economy in 18 years is indeed very ambitious.

Not a single OECD country out of 35 is predicted, by the OECD, to double its economy in 20 years, let alone 18 years, so Devon and Somerset will be doing remarkably well!

The UK is not predicted to double its economy in FORTY years, nor is the United States or the Eurozone.

The basis for Great South West predicting we will comfortably outperform the rest of the Western world appears to be the cleverness of the people at Great South West…

Weren’t they the ones who can’t even spell?

More pain for our LEP’s “productivity strategy”

Office for Budget Responsibility downgrades its productivity growth targets.

Will our councillors on the “Joint Committee” with our LEP show similar responsibility?

“… The Office for National Statistics reported last week that the UK’s level of productivity fell 0.3 per cent in the three months to June, meaning that the national output per hour worked is below where it was in the final quarter of 2007, almost a decade ago.

The OBR said that the recent productivity fall was “almost certainly” exacerbated by the impact of the 2016 Brexit vote, but it added that the weakness in productivity since the financial crisis was a global phenomenon too.

The OBR had projected in March that UK productivity would grow by 1.6 per cent in 2017, by1.5 per cent in 2018, by 1.7 per cent in 2019, and 1.8 per cent in 2020.

“It no longer seems central to assume that productivity growth will recover to the 1.8 per cent we assumed in March 2017 within five years,” the OBR said on Tuesday.

“We expect to lower our forecast for cumulative potential productivity growth significantly over the next five years, without going so far as to assume that there is no recovery at all from the very weak performance of recent years.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-productivity-growth-latest-treasury-watchdog-forecaster-november-budget-public-finances-philip-a7992326.html

Austerity is “economic murder” say academics in British Medical Journal

Where EXACTLY are the “12,700 more doctors and 10,600 more nurses” the government says we have had since 2010? How many have left during that time? How many are employed in the privatesector treating private patients? And IF we HAVE had them why are avoidable deaths rising?

“An extra 120,000 patients have died in the past seven years following cuts to health and social care budgets, a major study has found.

The patients were all over 60 and the majority died in care homes or their own homes, rather than in hospital.

Researchers from Cambridge University likened the cuts to ‘economic murder’ and said local NHS and social care funding means vulnerable patients are not receiving the help they badly need.

They also linked a fall in nurse numbers, particularly to district nurses who work in the community, to the additional deaths.

The study by Cambridge, Oxford and University College London is the first of its kind to look at the effects of funding reductions.

It is based on a computer model which calculated how many deaths should have occurred between 2010 and 2017, based on the number of deaths from 2000 to 2010.

It also predicted that if the current trends continue, there would be another 100 excess deaths a day between now and 2020. Researchers said that, although they could not prove the deaths were caused by the fall in health and social care spending, there was a very strong link.

One of the lead authors, Professor Lawrence King, from Cambridge University, said: ‘It is now very clear that austerity does not promote growth or reduce deficits – it is bad economics, but good class politics.

‘This study shows it is also a public health disaster. It is not an exaggeration to call it economic murder.’

The study, published in the BMJ Open journal, is complicated and the researchers admitted there may be other ‘factors’ behind the increased deaths such as the fact the population is ageing, unhealthy lifestyles and deprivation.

Dr Ben Maruthappu of University College London, senior author of the study, said: ‘While the Government’s investment into social care earlier this year is welcome, it is clear that more must be done, with better modernisation of services, and protection of health and social care funding.’ The research also found that previous rises in life expectancy rates had stalled.

The average woman was living 3.8 months less than previous predictions and the average man 5.2 months less.

Life expectancy rates are 82.9 for women and 79.2 years for men. The findings come amid calls from the medical profession for the Government to substantially increase health and social care funding in next Wednesday’s Budget. A Department of Health spokesman said: ‘As the researchers themselves note, this study cannot be used to draw any firm conclusions about the cause of excess deaths.

‘The NHS is treating more people than ever before and funding is at record levels with an £8billion increase by 2020-21. We’ve also backed adult social care with a £2billion investment, and we have 12,700 more doctors and 10,600 more nurses on our wards since May 2010.’ “

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5087527/NHS-cuts-blamed-120-000-extra-deaths.html

“Theresa May to renew ‘personal mission’ to fix broken housing market”

Summary:

Rhubarb … rhubarb … build more houses … rhubarb … build a Britain long journey … fit for the future … robust action …

Oh, just read it for yourself … if you think it will make any difference … sticking plaster on an amputation …

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/15/theresa-may-conservatives-broken-housing-market-housebuilding-budget

Can productivity and growth be increased outside the South East except for Hinkley C?

Our Local Enterprise Partnership’s draft economic strategy is making enormous claims about how much it will increase productivity in Devon and Somerset – its predictions outstripping those of historic precedent and some of the most productive areas of the UK. This in spite of our ageing population and the effects of austerity on skills and training (our LEP’s investment in this sector appears to be limited to training only for Hinkley C nuclear plant).

Our councillors might well examine our LEPs claims with some disquiet:

“… Cities such as Stoke, Blackburn, Mansfield and Doncaster had productivity 25% below the national average, the Centre for Cities said. Raising all parts of the UK to the national productivity average would increase the size of the economy by £203bn – equivalent to Birmingham’s output four times over.

The report showed that cities outside the greater south-east had weaker productivity because they were failing to secure the higher-skilled work of productive sectors and firms.

“Firms choose to locate their high-skilled operations in cities which can offer them access to a high-skilled workforce and other relevant businesses, and will base lower value components in places where land and labour is cheaper,” the thinktank said.

“Barclays bases its high-value banking activities in London and its low-skilled call centre in Sunderland. Similarly, clothing company Asos has a large distribution centre with low-skilled jobs in Barnsley, but its headquarters is located [in London].”

The report said another factor explaining the regional divide was that highly productive sectors and firms made up a larger shares of jobs in cities in the greater south-east than in urban areas in other regions.

On average, cities in the region had a larger proportion of workers in sectors and firms that contributed most to national productivity – in 2015, the information and communications sector made up 7% of jobs in cities in the greater south-east, compared with just 3% in other cities. The financial services industry accounted for 6% of jobs in cities in the region compared with 4% of jobs in cities elsewhere in the country. …”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/16/poor-productivity-outside-south-east-hurting-uk-economy