The LEP housing numbers, anticipating 50,000 new households in Devon, are almost certainly driven in part by the heroic assumptions about the local economy, as Owl has pointed out many times.
As we know, the LEP assumption is 4% growth per annum for the next 18 years. Such a sustained economic boom would invoke a ‘Klondike’ style immigration rush into Devon and Somerset, as the economies of all of the rest of the western world failed to compete with us at that level.
East Devon’s current Local Plan is based upon an anticipated annual UK economic growth rate of 3% from 2007, which has turned out to be just over 1%.
This, of course, is why many of our employment sites are dormant (and one of the many reasons why we do not need a new site in Sidford), and all our town centres are struggling – there simply isn’t demand.
Even if economic growth was to average 3% growth from now until the end of the Plan period, which looks incredibly optimistic, we would still have 33% more employment land than we need, according to East Devon’s own numbers.
The LEP’s projections have been laughed at by everyone – especially, Owl gathers, in Whitehall.
But they feed into a whole raft of housing and economic projections, that will ultimately emerge as policy around the region.
What assumption will be used for the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan (GESP) projections, Owl wonders? Now delayed until after the next local council elections in 2019?
Will the GESP team dare to condemn the LEP numbers, or will they adopt them, even when they must know they are nonsense?
What might happen if those without vested interests in the growth of expensive housing in the area were for once denied a say due to conflict of interest?
And where are the signs of the revisions of our Local Plan, based on current realities, that are required every 5 years?