NHS staff on London’s coronavirus field hospital and why it can’t take more patients

It was a magnificent achievement to create the first Nightingale in short order, but there is a little snag. Where do the specialist nursing and medical staff come from? No doubt super-brain Dominic Cummings or Health Secretary Matt Hancock has the solution in hand.

@ShaunLintern www.independent.co.uk 

A 4,000-patient hospital constructed in just 10 days, NHS Nightingale in east London was set up as a key part of the preparations for a coronavirus surge – and has been highlighted as a crowning achievement by ministers and officials at every turn, from the House of Commons to countless press releases and PR videos.

But at the 100-acre ExCel centre in London Docklands, the number of patients fighting for their lives in the field hospital is approximately 30. Questions are being asked about why the Nightingale isn’t taking more patients from London’s hospitals, which have carried the burden of the surge in patients needing intensive care, cancelling operations, creating makeshift intensive care units in overspill areas and stretching staffing to unsafe levels.

Up to 3,800 staff were needed for the initial creation of the hospital, although The Independent has been told only around a third of that number had been recruited and trained. NHS England refused to provide any staffing details, but denies there are shortages.

Insiders who work at varying levels in the hospital, who have spoken to The Independent on condition of anonymity, also criticise the “political spin” and portrayal of the Nightingale which they say has given a “false perception” of what it is like, with social media posts doing “more harm than good”.

“The PR has not helped. When people see TikToks and things like that I can understand why they ask questions. The impression people seem to have gained is that we are fully staffed and have plenty of equipment. But we are not immune to the challenges of every other hospital,” one insider says.

The staff praise the culture of the new hospital and all of them support its creation: “When they set this up we were talking about 7,500 patients in London needing critical care. We haven’t had to go anywhere near that. Not using it all is not a reason to criticise it.”

Another one explains: “It’s difficult to hear our mates struggling and not being able to expand at the pace we would want to. We know what they are going through. Our goal is to relieve the pressure on London and if we had the staff, we would be more than happy to take more patients. The only rate-limiting step is staffing.”

While one insider says there are thankful it hasn’t been needed in full, all the staff say they share the view that it would not be possible to expand the hospital without pulling more staff from already stretched hospitals.

Staffing levels

The Nightingale Hospital, spread across the equivalent of a dozen football pitches, houses 500 beds for patients and has space for another 3,500.

It admitted its first patient on 7 April and in the weeks since then has had approximately 30-35 patients at any one time. Although it discharged its first patient on 19 April, before that point several patients had been transferred back to London hospitals because they became sicker than could be safely managed.

Concerns have been raised that while some hospitals in London have struggled to cope in recent weeks, the Nightingale has not been as much help as many NHS managers in the capital had hoped it would be. Some trusts have been told they would need to send staff to the Nightingale when requesting to transfer patients there. One worker says: “They have had lots of issues with staffing. For a variety of reasons, staffing has been quite poor. They had to rejig it in the early days as they realised staff rostered onto shifts had not been released by their hospitals, so there were underfilled shifts which were only found out quite late on.

“It’s pretty well acknowledged that staffing is the issue. Not many people have been able to get released from their trusts. There is no shortage of people who want to send patients to the Nightingale. Everyone here knows some hospitals around London are on their knees, but unless you have staff you can’t expand the capacity. That is the limiting factor.”

Another says: “The Nightingale just doesn’t have the staff. Many of those who volunteered are stuck with their main employers.”

They say that to expand the number of patients, staff would need to be pulled from across the country, adding: “We are all fishing from the same pond and we started this crisis with significant ICU nurse shortages.”

The 42-bed ward used for patients – split into bays of six – has a mix of staff, including some with no intensive care experience such as GPs, obstetricians and research doctors who never normally treat patients.

The staffing is split into clinical support workers who cover between one to three patients, provide patient-level care and record the patient’s condition regularly, as well as registered nurses who oversee up to four patients with support from critical care nurses and matrons.

The ward also has six ward doctors, three intermediate doctors and intensive care or anaesthetic consultants as the senior decision makers. There are also separate teams looking after the specific needs of the patients and providing specialist support. Families are given daily updates on their relatives.

If the Nightingale was to take more patients, one clinician says this would inevitably mean poorer staffing levels: “If it did expand, the idea would be to stretch staff ratios from one nurse to six patients, one junior doctor to six patients and one consultant for 42 beds. Thank goodness we haven’t had to do that.”

One worker says they enjoy the working environment and the care being given to patients is good. They add that senior clinical managers have done shifts alongside other staff.

Another says: “It is a really flat hierarchy. There is no blame. People are positive about the work they are doing. Every day the care we are giving is getting better. There is a real team effort to improve.”

The future of the Nightingale

The number of patients in hospital with coronavirus has begun to fall steadily in the last few days and data on intensive care capacity shows these figures have started to stabilise.

“One of the big water cooler conversations is what Nightingale will look like in the future. A lot of people think it will be a resource for London to start doing all the other things London needs to be doing. But none of us know yet.”

Another adds: “The question is what do we do with the Nightingale now? Will we have a second surge? There is talk of it being used as a stepdown facility and rehabilitation service but it would need to be redesigned. It’s a big massive space and in order for people to rehab properly you need quiet, day and night cycles and specific spaces. We would have to make some pretty significant changes.”

A copy of the Nightingale’s standard operating procedures, shared by one member of staff with The Independent, reveals the field hospital was never designed to take the sickest patients.

The exclusion criteria says any patient with significant complications or serious intensive care needs such as renal replacement therapy, or filtering blood in place of the kidneys, are automatically not eligible to be taken there, leaving many of the sickest patients with London hospitals.

Some staff feel that the hospital is the right place for those patients to be while others suggest it was a move to protect the reputation of the new hospital and has left many London units struggling to cope.

One intensive care doctor from the north of England who examined the criteria document tells The Independent it “means they are only taking those who are well into the recovery phase”.

One Nightingale staff member says: “People are aware that we should have more patients and we are keen to have them.

“All the patients are sick. The problem with Covid patients is they get better and then they get sick again. Some patients have been transferred back to London hospitals.”

Facilities and equipment

All those interviewed by The Independent say the Nightingale has enough protective equipment. However, staff have been asked to use it carefully and to reuse visors. There have also been some drug shortages in line with supplies running low across the country.

The Nightingale, in line with many makeshift ICUs across the country, is also using anaesthetic ventilators with only a small number of normal intensive care ventilators. Anaesthetic machines are not designed for long-term use and need regular checks. One insider says this is far from ideal, adding: “I don’t feel we are delivering the standard of ITU care you would expect in a non-pandemic situation.”

Another says: “I don’t think we are awash with any equipment, but we seem to have what we need. We are being asked to reuse visors.”

One member of the team says: “It is hard work, but the patients are getting good care. We have five or six models of anaesthetic machines. Some of them are good and some of them are less good. The sicker patients go on the better ventilators

“Patients are transferred out when they are no longer safe to be on an anaesthetic machine. It was a little disingenuous to say that the patient on Sunday was our first to leave the Nightingale. There were a number of patients who left before the weekend as transfers to other units because the patients were too sick to remain here.”

One employee also noted that the hospital “does have all the facilities you need” but adds that when it comes to services for the patients: “It is not a normal hospital, it is a field hospital.”

There is a CT scanner which has been installed some distance from the ward area to help identify whether patients have internal problems such as blood clots on their lungs which can be a life-threatening complication.

It also has two dialysis stations to support several patients a day. Up to a third of Covid-19 patients need to have their blood filtered because they can suffer organ failure including their kidneys.

Another worker praises the facilities and efforts to maintain staff wellbeing. They describe fridges that are regularly placed along the main conference centre boulevard “filled with soft drinks that you can just help yourself to which is important for staff to stay hydrated”.

“There is lots of food and chocolate available. We don’t have to queue. We don’t have to pay – it’s all been donated.”

They say staff tend to congregate in a coffee shop opposite the main ward during their breaks, adding: “There is a real focus on taking your breaks. It’s the little things that make a difference and make you feel valued. A lot of us hope when this is all over the NHS takes away a lot of what has been done at the Nightingale.”

There is an emphasis on education and training and support for people not to go beyond what is safe for them to do with patients.

For those staff who can’t or don’t want to travel after completing their 12-hour shifts, they have been given free hotel accommodation.

Another colleague says the “place has been well designed” and “its quite impressive what they have been able to achieve. Morale is high”.

Many of the staff feel the Nightingale had been misrepresented in publicity produced by the NHS to promote the hospital. One worker says a lot of what had been produced amounted to “virtue signalling and humble bragging” rather than explaining the real work that was happening.

Another says the publicity about the hospital had been superficial and “given people the wrong impression”.

“We are not communicating the good stuff, it is so vague as to be unhelpful,” says another.

“We need to be much more open about what we are doing and there would be a better understanding of why we only have a small number of patients. The comms, tweets and videos are doing more harm than good.”

Nicki Credland, chair of the British Association of Critical Care Nurses, tells The Independent the testimony of staff is not a surprise to her: “It’s not the staff at the Nightingale’s fault. They will want to do everything they can to help their colleagues.

“Building more beds does not equal more staff. You cannot make intensive care staff overnight.”

She says the exclusion criteria shows the sickest patients are not being treated at the Nightingale, adding that staff around London have told her they are not coping because of the extra patients and stretched staffing levels. She says: “They are in a whole world of pain.

“You can’t say something is spare when you have had to stop something to provide it. That’s not extra capacity. It’s only been created by dropping your standards and reducing safety.”

NHS England refuse to confirm how many patients are being treated or how many staff are employed at the field hospital. In a statement, it said: “The clinical models for each of the Nightingale hospitals have been designed by highly experienced and distinguished clinicians from across the regions they serve, and work as part of regional critical care networks to ensure that patients get the right treatment for them in the right place.

“As we have always said, it will be very good news for the health of our country if the Nightingale hospitals are not used to their capacity, as it will show that the NHS has prepared successfully, and that the public following government advice has been effective in slowing spread of the virus.”

 

ALL the planning applications submitted in Devon made this week

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

Every week dozens of planning applications are submitted to the local councils – and the coronavirus pandemic has not changed that.

While some council services have been suspended as a result of COVID-19, planning departments are still working as usual to validate and to decide upon applications.

Here [on the link above] is the list of applications that have been submitted and validated by the various local councils or planning authorities in Devon in the last week.

Owl reproduces only those for East Devon (one of the longer lists) – good to see so many people busy:

EAST DEVON

 

Revealed: Dominic Cummings on secret scientific advisory group for Covid-19 

The prime minister’s chief political adviser, Dominic Cummings, and a data scientist he worked with on the Vote Leave campaign for Brexit are on the secret scientific group advising the government on the coronavirus pandemic, according to a list leaked to the Guardian.

Ahhhhh! Owl thinks we now know why all the secrecy surrounding SAGE (misnomer surely?). Two of Boris Johnson’s special advisers have been participating regularly, including Dominic Cummings (who isn’t even a scientist).

The committee is chaired by the Chief Scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance and the Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England, Prof. Chris Whitty is a core member. Not exactly what Owl would describe as “independent”.

Kate Proctor  www.theguardian.com 

It reveals that both Cummings and Ben Warner were among 23 attendees present at a crucial convening of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 23 March, the day Boris Johnson announced a nationwide lockdown in a televised address.

Multiple attendees of Sage told the Guardian that both Cummings and Warner had been taking part in meetings of the group as far back as February. The inclusion of Downing Street advisers on Sage will raise questions about the independence of its scientific advice.

There has been growing pressure on Downing Street in recent days to disclose more details about the group, which provides scientific advice to the upper echelons of government during emergencies. Both the membership of Sage and its advice to ministers on the Covid-19 outbreak is being kept secret.

Warner, a data scientist, was reportedly recruited to Downing Street last year by Cummings after running the Conservative party’s general election campaign model. He is also said to have worked closely with Cummings on the data modelling used in the Vote Leave campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.

The government’s former chief scientific adviser Sir David King said he was “shocked” to discover there were political advisers on Sage. “If you are giving science advice, your advice should be free of any political bias,” he said. “That is just so critically important.”

Told that Cummings was in the 23 March meeting, King replied: “Oh my goodness. Isn’t this maybe why they don’t want us to know who was there?”

King said political advisers were never on the equivalent committees of Sage when he chaired them and argued that Cummings, who is not a scientist, could report his own interpretation of Sage advice back to the prime minister.

Other former members of Sage also said they could not recall political appointees being on previous committees. David Lidington, a former Cabinet Office minister and de facto deputy to Theresa May when she was prime minister, said: “I’m not aware of any minister or special adviser, certainly not in Theresa May’s time, ever having been involved in the scientific advisory panels.”

In a statement provided by Downing Street, a government spokesperson said: “Expert participants often vary for each meeting according to which expertise is required. A number of representatives from government departments and No 10 attend also.”

Late on Friday, Downing Street released a second statement. “It is not true that Mr Cummings or Dr Warner are ‘on’ or members of Sage. Mr Cummings and Dr Warner have attended some Sage meetings and listen to some meetings now they are all virtual. Occasionally they ask questions or offer help when scientists mention problems in Whitehall,” a No 10 spokesman said.

“Sage provides independent scientific advice to the government. Political advisers have no role in this,” the spokesperson added. “Public confidence in the media has collapsed during this emergency partly because of ludicrous stories such as this.”

Downing Street declined to say how many Sage meetings Cummings and Warner attended, or whether any other political advisers took part.

Sage participants told the Guardian the Downing Street advisers were not merely observing the advisory meetings, but actively participating in discussions about the formation of advice.

In a letter to parliament this month, Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, who chairs Sage, said the “decision not to disclose” membership of the committee was based on advice from the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure.

“This contributes towards safeguarding individual members’ personal security and protects them from lobbying and other forms of unwanted influence which may hinder their ability to give impartial advice,” Vallance wrote. “Of course, we do not stop individuals from revealing that they have attended Sage.”

On Friday, England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, appeared to signal a change in direction, saying the public had a right to know who sat on Sage. He told a Commons science select committee that while it was important to consider security concerns, there was “absolutely no barrier” from him or Vallance. Asked if in the current climate revealing the names of who was on the group would boost public confidence in the scientific advice being given, Whitty replied: “Yes.”

Several members on Sage, as well as scientists on its advisory subcommittees, are known to be frustrated at what they view as a culture of secrecy that risks straining public trust in the government’s response to Covid-19.

Since the outbreak, ministers have stuck to the script that their policies are guided by scientific advice, while declining to reveal where the advice is coming from or what exactly it contains.

Other countries have been more open about the scientific evidence behind their decisions, and the UK’s approach has raised eyebrows overseas.

The New York Times reported on Thursday that Sage operates in “a virtual black box”. “Its list of members is secret, its meetings are closed, its recommendations are private and the minutes of its deliberations are published much later, if at all.”

The Guardian understands that Sage first met for a precautionary meeting to discuss Covid-19 on 22 January, then again on 28 January. It met a further nine times in February, and 10 times in March. It is currently meeting around twice a week.

It understood that while the chief medical officers and chief scientific advisers of the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have been allowed to listen in on Sage meetings, they have been doing so as observers. Unlike Cummings and Warner, they were not allowed to ask questions, having to instead submit them in writing in advance.

While core members of the committee, such as Whitty, attend all meetings, other clinical experts, scientists and epidemiologists do not attend every meeting, but can be asked in on a rotating basis to provide specific advice. Sage tends to be guided by specific questions that they are asked to consider by the Cabinet Office’s emergency Cobra meetings.

Other Sage participants at the 23 March meeting included Sharon Peacock, the director of the National Infection Service at Public Health England, and Ian Diamond, the head of the Government Statistical Service. Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose models have been central to government decision–making, was also present, along with fellow infectious disease specialists, Graham Medley and John Edmunds.

Others attendees included Brooke Rogers, a professor of behavioural science at King’s College – who also chairs the Cabinet Office’s National Risk Assessment Behavioural Science Advisory Group – and James Rubin, also at King’s, who chairs a Sage subcommittee that provides specific advice on behavioural science.

However it is the inclusion of two Downing Street political advisers that will raise questions over whether the structure of the government’s scientific advisory process is free from political interference.

A source in Downing Street said that in March Cummings was playing a commanding role in responding to the Covid-19 outbreak. Cummings is understood to be close to Warner, whose brother, Marc, runs Faculty, an artificial intelligence company that the Guardian revealed is involved in an “unprecedented” data-mining operation as part of the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

An accomplished data scientist, Ben Warner previously worked at his brother’s AI company, which has teamed up with Palantir, the US data firm founded by the rightwing billionaire Peter Thiel, to consolidate UK government databases to help ministers respond to the pandemic.

 

‘Hard and fast’ plan takes New Zealand through coronavirus crisis

New Zealanders will return to work on Monday as the country eases a strict lockdown hailed as an example to the world for keeping deaths below 20. (Owl thinks it no coincidence that New Zealand has a female prime minister)

Bernard Lagan, Sydney  www.thetimes.co.uk 

About half a million of New Zealand’s more than 2.5 million workers will return to their jobs as the construction and forestry industries resume, and more retailers open after a month-long lockdown that brought the country to a standstill.

New Zealand’s restrictions extended to every non-essential business, leaving only supermarkets and pharmacies open — actions only matched in severity by India and Israel.

The nation of five million led by Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, is, like Taiwan, seeking to eliminate Covid-19 from within its borders while most other countries, including its much larger neighbour Australia, pursue less stringent suppression policies.

New Zealand has the world’s lowest mortality rate for coronavirus and ranks among the lowest for the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 people. As of yesterday, only 17 people had died of the disease.

Ms Ardern, 39, said that New Zealand would continue to pursue its goal of elimination with a strategy that differs from most other nations. “Success doesn’t mean zero Covid-19 cases,” she said. “It means zero tolerance — as soon as we have a case, we go in straight away, testing around that person. We’re isolating them . . . we do our interviews and contact trace to find all the people who have been in contact with them while they may have passed it on, and we ask them to isolate. That’s how we keep stamping out Covid cases.”

While the country has been widely lauded for its “go hard, go fast” strategy, Australia has on some measures achieved even better results. By yesterday, it had recorded 77 coronavirus deaths among a population of 25 million — a slightly lower per capita death rate than New Zealand.

Australia has had a looser lockdown strategy and has kept many more shops and workplaces open, including the building industry, but is struggling to safely relax restrictions on movement and recreation. Sydney reopened its Maroubra and Coogee beaches on Monday but closed them again because visitors failed to abide by rules that require them to keep moving and not sunbathe.

Experts have said that New Zealand and Australia had advantages fighting Covid-19 because of their smaller population densities, remote locations and increased knowledge about the disease because it hit larger nations first.

“It was the horror, I guess, seeing what was happening in Italy in places, but also watching the other countries that were closer to China and who had experience with Sars and things before,” Dr Siouxsie Wiles, a micro- biologist at Auckland University and one of the architects of New Zealand’s strategy, said.

“They were responding differently. It was clear you could do something different and have a different outcome to what was happening in countries like Italy. That was the first thing — we had time on our side.”

She insisted that restrictions would only be gradually removed and that the virus was not beaten. “If the public starts thinking or acting that this means we can kind of go and hang out with our friends, then, if we still have the virus in little pockets of the country, we could start to see it coming up again,” she said. “So we’re in a delicate position.”

Ms Ardern rejected a scheme yesterday that would have allowed the foreign super-rich to buy their way into New Zealand in return for investing $50 million in the economy. “We don’t want people paying for passports,” she said. Leading business figures had called on her government to offer about 2,000 visas to foreigners who could invest into the country — once the virus was eradicated — as a way to boost the economy, which has been forecast to reach unemployment rates of at least 10 per cent.

Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Silicon Valley executives had escaped to hideout shelters in New Zealand because of the pandemic.

Suffocating the enemy

Feb 3 New Zealand introduces entry restrictions for foreigners travelling from, or transiting through, China.

Feb 28 A person in their 60s arriving from Iran is diagnosed with Covid-19, the country’s first case.

Feb 29 Health staff start to meet flights from Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand to look for symptoms.

March 1 Australia and the US report first virus deaths.

March 2 Global death toll tops 3,000. New Zealand rules that anyone who has visited northern Italy or South Korea must self-isolate for 14 days.

March 14 Anyone entering the country must self-isolate for 14 days bar those arriving from the Pacific Island nations. Cruise ships banned.

March 16 Any tourists who arrive and do not self-quarantine risk being deported.

March 19 Borders closed to all but NZ citizens and permanent residents.

March 23 People are told to stay at home by the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, to stop community transmission.

March 24 Schools and universities and all non-essential businesses shut. Travel is severely limited.

March 25 State of emergency is declared. The nation goes into self-isolation.

 

Coronavirus: A day in the life of a contact tracer

For Trish Mannes, telling people that they have coronavirus brings out the best in humanity. “Most people are worried about others,” is her conclusion after years of experience as an expert contact tracer attempting to halt the outbreak of infectious diseases of all kinds.

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor  www.thetimes.co.uk 

Since February, that has meant coronavirus, when Ms Mannes was leading efforts to slow the first cases of the outbreak around Brighton and elsewhere in southeast England. “They would all say ‘oh but my daughter’s about to sit GCSEs, what does that mean for her?’ or ‘oh my goodness I visited my elderly mother last week’. It’s always worries for others. It’s incredible — people talk a lot about a fairly self-centred selfish society, I don’t actually think that’s the case.

“In our experiences, people would say, ‘absolutely, we’ll do as you ask because this is about protecting the community’.”

The principles of contact tracing, in essence, have remained unchanged for centuries. Find a case. Quarantine them. Work out who they have been in contact with. Quarantine them, too.

Having controversially abandoned mass contact tracing in the early stages of outbreak, Britain is about to return to it on a mass scale. Hopes of loosening social distancing depend on training up an army of tracers to stay on top of every case, using skills learned by experts such as Ms Mannes.

While she says that “a good chunk of this is very, very formulaic”, one of the key skills is the crucial first interview with each case, where tracers must make sure that they have found out everything they can about a person’s movements.

“They key things are interpersonal skills and your ability to empathise with people and to understand where they’re coming from,” she said. “The other trick is about investigation and to be really thorough, and ensure that you ask all the right questions and remain curious about what you might be missing.”

In the early days of the outbreak she recalls that as well as fear, “people felt very guilty about who they may have infected . . . there was an enormous sense of, ‘oh gosh, have I just brought this horrible disease in to the UK? Is this my fault?’ We had to do a lot of reassurance around ‘this is a disease, you are a person who contracedt it, it is not your fault’.”

Since then, as contact tracing as continued in efforts to halt outbreaks in care homes, things have got easier in some ways. “It’s a different request than it was in February. No one’s got social events that they’re cancelling,” she said.

As Britain returns to mass contact tracing it will be “a lot more automated”, with mass texts sent out to groups of contacts. People will still be needed to do phone contacts but Ms Mannes says “that’s reasonably simple conversation and someone can be trained to do that . . . If that conversation becomes more difficult there’ll be a higher tier, where people have more skills more training, and then they’ll eventually get to the experts.”

In many ways, though, she expects the job to get easier: “No one has to be convinced to take coronavirus seriously, and it is no longer so hard to persuade people to stay at home.”

 

Coronavirus testing website books 16,000 within hours – How fit for purpose is it?

(According to the Guardian all the home testing bookings had been taken by 6.02 am, two minutes after the website opened, and the drive-in testing appointments ran out before 8.30 am. Nearest test site are Plymouth and Bristol). Owl wonders just how fit for purpose this approach is for those key workers such as hard pressed care home workers. 

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor  www.thetimes.co.uk

Matt Hancock’s hopes of hitting his 100,000-a-day testing pledge received a boost yesterday as thousands of people tried to book coronavirus tests online.

Ministers insisted it was a sign of success that the website stopped accepting bookings within hours of opening because testing centres had run out of slots. Hospitals complained, however, that the benchmark distorted priorities by putting a dash for numbers above sensible allocation of tests.

Although slots are meant to be reserved for key workers, officials admit that this is being taken on trust to ensure that laboratory capacity is not wasted. About 16,500 people booked slots yesterday, a revision downward from the government’s original figure of 20,000. Officials are optimistic, however, that the number can be increased, with a further 1,000 slots due to be available today to key workers.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, told a Downing Street briefing last night that the testing target was “quite likely” to be met now that the website was working. Mr Hancock, the health secretary, is under intense political pressure to meet the self-imposed deadline at the end of the month. Officials judge that it is better to have the service oversubscribed than to have unused testing capacity.

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said that the 100,000 figure had not been based on his advice but acknowledged the need for more testing.

He admitted that contact tracing, which the government is planning to resume at large scale as a way of easing lockdown, might not have stopped in mid-March if testing capacity and manpower had been available.

Professor Whitty told MPs on the science and technology committee that the scale of infections meant there was little alternative to stopping contact tracing on March 13. “Our technical view collectively was it really wasn’t likely to add a huge amount at that particular point, given the resources we had,” he said. “If you did a mental experiment in which we had an infinite amount of testing, infinite numbers of people trained, we might have taken a different view but in any emergency . . . you deal with the tools you’ve got.”

The admission will add to scrutiny of the government’s pandemic planning after it emerged that it was warned last year of the risk of a coronavirus outbreak. A 2019 “national security risk assessment” leaked to The Guardian said that a novel coronavirus similar to Sars and Mers would probably cause “short-term localised disruption”.

Professor Whitty said that increasing testing was “very important” and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies was estimating the amount of testing needed to ease restrictions.

He said that the plan “includes greater testing within hospitals for people who don’t currently have symptoms, for example people who might be coming in for elective things, and greater testing in care homes. What we’re trying to do is get that basic number and then build on top of that what are the other things we could use it for, under a number of different ways of running the next stage of the epidemic, which is going to be a prolonged one.”

The prime minister’s spokesman said that 5,000 home-testing kits had been ordered within two minutes of the portal going live. Officials acknowledged a brief technical glitch when the site opened but said that it allocated 11,500 slots in drive-through swabbing centres before refusing new bookings. This number is to increase to 12,500 today.

Eligibility yesterday extended to more than ten million key workers and their families but it emerged that no checks were being carried out and people were able to declare themselves as essential staff. The spokesman said: “We expect the public to respond in good faith.”

On Thursday 28,532 tests were carried out despite capacity for more than 51,000. Officials say that demand from NHS staff had been lower than expected. Health and care workers have complained about lengthy trips to one of the 31 drive-through centres. This number is due to increase to 48, in addition to 48 “pop-up” mobile testing centres run by the army. By Thursday, 18,000 home test kits are to be sent out.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of the hospitals group NHS Providers, said: “Much more needs to be done to ensure that people can actually book tests. In our view, it is as important to focus on how testing capacity is delivered and made available as the number of tests completed each day.”

  • Personal protective equipment for frontline care workers will run out in days due to delays in setting up an online ordering system, the Local Government Association has warned. It said that councils faced acute shortages with millions of gloves, gowns and visors needed to ensure the safety of carers. They face waiting a month for the government website to be set up.

 

Flooding will affect double the number of people worldwide by 2030

Emily Holden  www.theguardian.com 

The number of people harmed by floods will double worldwide by 2030, according to a new analysis.

The World Resources Institute, a global research group, found that 147 million people will be hit by floods from rivers and coasts annually by the end of the decade, compared with 72 million people just 10 years ago.

Damages to urban property will soar from $174bn to $712bn per year.

By 2050, “the numbers will be catastrophic,” according to the report. A total of 221 million people will be at risk, with the toll in cities costing $1.7tn yearly.

When WRI first developed its flood modeling tool in 2014, the predictions felt “like a fantasy”, said Charlie Iceland, director of water initiatives at WRI.

“But now we’re actually seeing this increase in magnitude of the damages in real time,” Iceland said. “We’ve never seen these types of floods before.”

Floods are getting worse because of the climate crisis, decisions to populate high-risk areas and land sinkage from the overuse of groundwater.

The worst flooding will come in south and south-east Asia, including in Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and China, where large populations are vulnerable.

The effects will be less dire but still increasingly serious in the US, where the risk is highest for coastal flooding. The US ranks third among countries with the most to lose from urban coastal flooding in the next 10 years, after China and Indonesia.

Coastal flood damage in the US will soar from $1.8bn in 2010 to $38bn in 2050, with half the country’s exposed population in just three states – Louisiana, Massachusetts and Florida.

What are now once in a lifetime floods could become daily occurrences for most of the US coastline, according to a separate study.

That’s because hurricanes are stronger, seas are higher and rain patterns are changing, all because of global heating caused by humans.

River floods will get worse in the US, but those damages will stay about the same, as large investments will be made in flood protection.

 

Earth Day: Greta Thunberg calls for ‘new path’ after pandemic

Another bit of catch-up.

Jonathan Watts  www.theguardian.com 

Greta Thunberg has urged people around the world to take a new path after the coronavirus pandemic, which she said proved “our society is not sustainable”.

The Swedish climate activist said the strong global response to Covid-19 demonstrated how quickly change could happen when humanity came together and acted on the advice of scientists.

She said the same principles should be applied to the climate crisis.

“Whether we like it or not, the world has changed. It looks completely different now from how it did a few months ago. It may never look the same again. We have to choose a new way forward,” she told a YouTube audience in a virtual meeting to mark the 50th anniversary of Earth Day.

“If the coronavirus crisis has shown us one thing, it is that our society is not sustainable. If one single virus can destroy economies in a couple of weeks, it shows we are not thinking long-term and taking risks into account.”

The teenage campaigner, who initiated the global school strike movement, was filmed at the Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm in digital conversation with Johan Rockström, the earth systems scientist and director of the Potsdam Institute.

He said there was a strong correlation between the pandemic and the environmental crisis: deforestation and the wildlife trade heighten the likelihood of viruses leaping the species boundary; air pollution increases human vulnerability by weakening respiratory systems; and the expansion of air travel allows epidemics to spread more quickly. “The scientific evidence shows they are interconnected and part of the same planetary crisis,” he said. “We are living beyond the carrying capacity of the planet so we are putting human health and the health of nature at risk.”

The lockdown has reduced emissions and hurt the oil industry, which is the biggest source of the greenhouse gases that are heating the planet to dangerous levels. But the two speakers stressed the virus should not be seen as an environmental panacea because it has brought immense human suffering, provided only temporary respite and distracted from campaigns, research and international meetings that aimed to find a smoother transition to a clean economy.

The key lesson from the pandemic, they said, was the need for governments to pay more heed to scientific warnings.

“We have underestimated the shocks. We need to build more shock absorbers into the system,” Rockström said. “Around the world, people are recognising the uncertainty and are being cautious. Also regarding the climate, we cannot know for certain how far we can push up global warming. So I hope that we come out of the pandemic with the recognition that science shows: it’s not worth taking the risk … I believe that something new is coming from the ashes of the corona crisis. We’ll rise out of this, but not by bouncing back to the old world.”

He said there was more support now for green new deals in Europe and South Korea and for China to go beyond the economy when setting priorities.

Neither speaker mentioned the US president, Donald Trump, Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, or other leaders who have either dismissed the risk of the pandemic or used it to relax environmental protections and health standards in the name of economic recovery. But Thunberg alluded to these dangers.

“During a crisis like this there is a big risk that people try to use this emergency to push their own agenda or their own interests. We need to make sure that doesn’t happen,” she said. “I cannot stress enough how important it is that we are active democratic citizens so a crisis like this doesn’t slide in the wrong direction.”

Elsewhere, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, marked Earth Day by declaring the pandemic to be the biggest threat the world had faced since the second world war, though he said the environmental emergency was deeper.

He said post-pandemic recovery should focus on six goals: the creation of clean, green jobs; taxpayer support for sustainable growth; an economic shift from grey concrete to green nature; investment in the future rather than the past with an end to fossil fuel subsidies; the incorporation of climate risk into the financial system, and international cooperation.

A new opinion poll suggests there is strong support for this view. Sixty-six per cent of Britons believe the climate is as serious a long-term crisis as Covid-19 and 58% agree it should be prioritised in the economic recovery. The survey of 14 countries by Mori found even higher levels of support in China, Germany, France, India, Italy and Japan. Even in the least enthusiastic nations – the US and Australia – a majority supported green priorities in stimulus programmes.

Public opinion has shifted dramatically in the past two years as a result of increasingly grim climate studies and high-profile campaigns by groups such as FridaysForFuture and Extinction Rebellion. Big strikes and marches have been postponed but Thunberg vowed they will be back once it is safe to return to the streets.

“We have to adapt. That is what you have to do in a crisis,” she said. “People are thinking we will get out of this and then we will push even harder.”

 

Campaigners take legal action over £27bn UK road-building scheme

A bit of catch-up news with implications on the whole of the newly announced road building programme. 

Matthew Taylor  www.theguardian.com

Campaigners have launched a legal challenge to try to prevent billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money being spent on a huge road-building programme, which they say breaches the UK’s legal commitments to tackle the climate crisis and air pollution.

Lawyers acting for the Transport Action Network (Tan) have begun legal proceedings against the Department for Transport calling for the road-building scheme, which was confirmed last month by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to be suspended.

They argue that ministers did not take into account the government’s legally binding commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050. They also say the government has not considered whether the £27bn programme is in line with its obligations under the Paris climate agreement.

The move follows a successful challenge to the proposed third runway at Heathrow. In that case the court ruled that the planned airport expansion was illegal because ministers did not adequately take into account the government’s commitments to tackle the climate crisis.

The road-building programme is thought to be the UK’s largest and would lead to thousands of miles of new roads being built across the country in the coming years – with at least 50 projects due to be under way in the next two years.

The UK’s road network and its wider transport infrastructure are crucial in the country’s efforts to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis. The transport sector is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and the only one to have increased its emissions in recent years.

Chris Todd, Tan’s director, said it was impossible to take the government seriously on the threat posed by climate change when it is “set to burn billions on the largest ever roads programme”.

“This massive roads programme has become like a juggernaut that’s out of control, that no one can stop. We now have no choice but to go to court to prevent an unfolding disaster.”

Tan wrote to the secretary of state following the court of appeal’s Heathrow decision in February requesting a pause in the road-building programme to allow time to reconsider its environmental effects. It said it did not receive a response to that letter. Lawyers have sent a pre-action protocol letter that is the official start of legal proceedings.

Rowan Smith, from the solicitors Leigh Day, which is pursuing the case on behalf of Tan, said the group was raising “legitimate concerns” at a time when it was widely established that the climate emergency “demands a move away from a continued reliance on fossil fuels towards more sustainable transport”.

The government’s climate change adviser has joined calls for ministers to reconsider its road-building plans.

Chris Stark, the head of the Committee on Climate Change, said it would be better for the economy and the fight against climate breakdown for the billions of pounds allocated for road-building to be invested in broadband – especially in light of the coronavirus crisis, which has led to many more people working from home.

“The government mustn’t be investing in anything likely to increase carbon emissions,” Stark told the BBC. “I expect that video-conferencing will become the new normal and we won’t return to travelling the way we did. I would spend the roads budget on fibre. You would get a huge return to the economy with people having better connections. You would save people’s time and increase their productivity.”

His comments echo those of the head of the motoring organisation the AA, who said this month that government money would be better invested in broadband than roads.

In response to the legal challenge, a spokesperson for the Department for Transport defended its plans. “The second road investment strategy is consistent with our ambitions to improve air quality and decarbonise transport,” they said. “We have received the letter and will respond formally in due course.’’

 

NHS Nightingale Exeter to move from Westpoint to new location and the story on ventilators

This news on the scaling down of the Exeter Nightingale comes soon after news that the Dyson contract to provide 10,000 ventilators is to be cancelled. This in turn follows cancellation of the formula 1 team’s BlueSky ventilator a couple of weeks ago, the specification of which turned out not to be suitable for Covid patients. Not forgetting the millions wasted on testing kits that didn’t work well enough.

The scaling back on the perceived need for intensive beds is good news, bearing in mind the South West has the lowest ratio of such beds to “normal” needs. Looks like the older population took social isolation and distancing seriously and acted on the instructions quickly. 

The Government has been desperately trying to play catch-up, having been caught unprepared for the scale of the pandemic. So it’s not surprising that we should see surplus in some things while experiencing shortages in others. 

In retrospect, the article “The UK needs more ventilators and fast. But the maths doesn’t add up” illustrates the confusion at the time.

Howard Lloyd www.devonlive.com

The NHS Nightingale hospital which was supposed to be built in Exeter to help combat the coronavirus pandemic will no longer be at Westpoint Arena, it has been announced.

It was decided that a site the size of Westpoint was not required due to the lower-than-expected transmission rates of COVID-19 in the South West.

Instead, NHS Nightingale Exeter will be at a ‘former Homebase store’, where construction will begin in the next few days.

The home improvement retailer’s branch in the Sowton area of Exeter closed in September 2018, although it has not yet been confirmed that this is the site in question.

A statement from the NHS Devon Clinical Commissioning Group said: “The NHS’ newest hospital will now be built on the site of a former retail unit on the outskirts of the city.

“Earlier plans had indicated that this hospital would be based at Westpoint.

“However, having carefully considered the value which Westpoint brings to the community north of Exeter, and the disruption it could cause to its everyday operations, we have used the time available to us to consider alternatives.

“We are very grateful to the charity which runs Westpoint for their help, hard work, and kindness in welcoming us over the last ten days as we considered our decision.”

DevonLive revealed at the start of April that Westpoint had been chosen for the new hospital – news which was confirmed by the Government a week later.

The temporary hospital was due to be the smallest of the seven temporary hospitals being set up across the country.

The British Army was helping the NHS and private contractors to prepare the site which was meant to be ready by early May and provide up to 400 extra beds.

“Westpoint have been nothing less than exemplary and were the first to heed the call,” said Dr Michael Marsh, Regional Medical Director for the NHS in the South West.

“They understand why we have made the decision and support us in doing the best we can for patients.”

The new hospital will be a regional facility providing care and treatment for patients from Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset.

The NHS Devon Clinical Commissioning Group said that the ‘lower than expected COVID-19 transmission rates in the SW combined with updated modelling of care needs also shows that a smaller site would be a better use of resources, and enable the NHS in the South West to use the site for a longer period of time if needed’.

Conversion of the former Homebase store will begin over the next few days, with help from the army and contractors BAM Construct Ltd, who also built the NHS Nightingale Hospital in Harrogate.

The NHS Nightingale Exeter brings the total to seven confirmed NHS Nightingale Hospitals in a matter of weeks, with others in Bristol, Birmingham, Harrogate, London, Manchester and Sunderland.

 

Cornwall’s poshest hotel is now recovery centre for hospital patients

“Step down” hospital, “Recovery” hospital – sounds like a substitute for the old fashioned cottage hospital to Owl.   

Richard Whitehouse www.cornwalllive.com

A patient staying at one of three hotels in Cornwall which have been designated as ‘step down’ hospitals cried tears of joy in appreciation for his carers.

The St Moritz Hotel near Rock has joined The Carnmarth Hotel in Newquay, Penventon Hotel in Redruth to be used as recuperation centres.

They are hosting patients who are recovering from operations or Covid-19 but are not strong enough to return home.

By taking them to the hotels the Royal Cornwall Hospitals Trust has been able to free up beds at Treliske.

Cornwall Council chief executive Kate Kennally said yesterday: “These are working really well with people staying at the hotels being very appreciative of the care and support they are receiving.

“One guest broke down in tears of joy. He stayed in a room overlooking Fistral Beach and the sun was setting over the sea. He broke down in tears and expressed his appreciation to the health and care he was receiving.”

Ms Kennally added that through this scheme and others being carried out between the council and health care providers “our partnership has never been so strong”.

In a statement it was confirmed that the St Moritz Hotel has been designated as a recuperation centre until mid June for patients from north Cornwall.

All three hotels are using specialist staff provided by Cornwall Council-owned company Corserv and the NHS in Cornwall.

St Moritz proprietor Hugh Ridgway said: “With the hotel closed and in abject frustration at being unable to do anything two weeks ago I got in touch with Scott Mann, MP, and offered St Moritz as an emergency facility for the NHS. The response was immediate. Numerous inspections later we are delighted to be open and receiving our first patients as a ‘step down hospital’.

“Operated by Cornwall Care we are already in awe of their staff – their dedication and professionalism is quite humbling.

“I hugely thank the St Moritz staff who have volunteered to help this enterprise with all the support services that are required – three meals a day, administration, housekeeping, maintenance etc. It is a great thing they are doing to help prosecute the war against this dreadful virus.