Jenrick must stop this race for houses at all costs

Phillip Inman, writing in the Observer, discussed the division between those who want to rethink their lives after Covid and those wanting to return to “normality”.

Top of the list for change in his opinion is the need to re-examine housing:

“ …… Inside the Treasury, there is a conviction that only volume matters. It rules all other considerations and leads the housing, communities and local government secretary, Robert Jenrick, to side with developers at every turn. He has torn up the plans of countless local authorities on the grounds that they don’t include enough housing.

Jenrick cares little about the size of the homes and whether the abundance of pokey one- and two-bedroom flats with open-plan kitchen/dining/living areas is fit for a 21st century in which at least one person may be working from home.

It only takes one graph revealing a decline in the annual rise in commuting to a city – any city – from the surrounding area for all the profits from a major housing development to evaporate.

There are still projects across the south-east being promoted by Jenrick that need extra public transport links to be viable. How will these work when many people say they will refuse to travel on public transport until the vaccine has done its work, and maybe not even then?

Hopefully, a Labour government would begin to see towns as places that people should want to live and work in, and would aim to reduce the number who commute, going with the grain of modern urban ideas. The party should challenge the outmoded view that large cities are the only routes to growth and say that a reassessment of what an economy needs to be successful – GDP growth is not necessarily the measure – is a priority……”

Phillip Inman www.theguardian.com

‘Impossibly high number’ of new homes for East Devon scrapped by government

There is good news! – Owl

The Government has announced a U-turn decision on the number of new homes that must be built annually in East Devon.

Becca Gliddon eastdevonnews.co.uk 

Proposals to build 1,614 houses in the district each year have been cut by almost 700 after The Government announced its decision to shelve original plans.

East Devon District Council (EDDC) today (January 4) welcomed the changes, which will see an annual reduction of 686 new builds – a 42.5 per cent decrease.

The district council had raised concerns with The Government over the proposed numbers – similar to other authorities – with councillors saying the proposals ‘lacked any rhyme or reason’ and would have been ‘impossible’ to achieve without putting pressure on East Devon’s protected landscapes and habitats.

The council also raised fears of the ‘immense pressure’ original numbers would put on services and infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and roads to accommodate the increase in population.

In a report to the council’s strategic planning committee meeting, on 16 September 2020, councillors declared ‘no logic’ to The Government’s proposed approach other than to deliver the 300,000 homes nationally per year and reach targets.

Councillor Dan Ledger, EDDC portfolio holder for strategic planning, said: “This is great news and I am massively relieved that we do not now need to plan for an impossibly high number of new homes in the district for no good reason.

“Instead, we can focus on delivering a new Local Plan which delivers an appropriate balance between protecting everything that makes East Devon so special while delivering the new homes and jobs that our communities need.”

Last August The Government consulted councils across the country on the changes to the way it calculated the number of new homes that must be built.

The Government has now published a response to the findings, taking EDDC’s comments on board, along with that of other local authorities.

Consultation results included deciding to scrap the proposed changes and keeping unchanged the way Westminster calculates the number of homes that must be built in each area.

In a bid to deliver more homes, numbers are to increase by 35 per cent on previously-developed or brownfield land

As a result of The Government’s findings, more homes will be built in Plymouth and Bristol.

Beggars Belief

Best Western hotels could be turned into hundreds of ‘cottage hospitals’ to ease NHS Covid strain

But what about the staff? – Owl

Alex Winter www.thesun.co.uk

HUNDREDS of Best Western hotels could be turned into ‘cottage hospitals’ to ease the strain of the pandemic on the NHS.

The chain has offered to hand over as many as 500 of its inns to support the health service as another strict lockdown begins in England.

Area breakdown as 1,259 new Covid-19 cases recorded across Devon

There were 1,259 new cases of Covid-19 recorded across Devon in the seven days to December 29, according to figures released today (January 3).

Ian Hughes www.devonlive.com

Cullompton reported more positive tests than any other area during that time, with 48.

Elsewhere, there were increases of 35 in Cranbrook, Broadclystand Stoke Canon, 32 in Ottery St Mary and West Hill, and 29 in Middlemoor and Sowton.

Over the same time period, the highest infection rate was also recorded in Cullompton  – with 545.8 new cases per 100,000 people.

It was followed by rates of 381.4 in Alphington and Marsh Barton, 372 in St Leonard’s, and 359.3 in Ottery St Mary and West Hill.

Across the UK, the death toll now stands at 75,024 and 2,654,779 people have tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic.

This represents an increase of 454 and 54,990 respectively in the past 24 hours.

AreaNew positives23-Dec to 29-DecRate per 100K23-Dec to 29-Dec
Alphington & Marsh Barton28381.4
Appledore & Northam North349.2
Ashburton & Buckfastleigh449.8
Axminster664.4
Babbacombe & Plainmoor589
Bampton, Holcombe & Westleigh13189.9
Barnstaple Central463.1
Barnstaple Pilton6102.9
Barnstaple South18202.5
Barnstaple Sticklepath7118.7
Bere Alston, Buckland Monachorum & Yelverton9142.1
Bideford North12201.4
Bideford South & East13101.5
Bishop’s Nympton, Witheridge & Chulmleigh687.9
Bishopsteignton & Shaldon9134.4
Blatchcombe & Blagdon649.8
Bow, Lapford & Yeoford8125.6
Bradninch, Silverton & Thorverton19227.2
Bratton Fleming, Goodleigh & Kings Heanton348.8
Braunton14148.4
Brixham Town774
Budleigh Salterton7112.6
Central Exeter23190.3
Chagford, Princetown & Dartmoor10144
Chelston, Cockington & Livermead12109.6
Chillington, Torcross & Stoke Fleming353
Chudleigh & Bovey Tracey10102.5
Churston & Galmpton8118.2
Clifton & Maidenway9126.6
Clyst, Exton & Lympstone7102.4
Countess Wear & Topsham12155.6
Cranbrook, Broadclyst & Stoke Canon35260
Crediton8100.9
Cullompton48545.8
Dartmouth6110.6
Dawlish North13153
Dawlish South344.7
Dunkesewell, Upottery & Stockland8137.8
Ellacombe468.6
Exmouth Brixington11169.9
Exmouth Halsdon12173
Exmouth Littleham20266.2
Exmouth Town681.2
Exmouth Withycombe Raleigh15202.3
Exwick & Foxhayes15198.3
Feniton & Whimple23262.6
Fremington & Instow13203.2
Goodrington & Roselands456
Great Torrington350.2
Hartland Coast8122.9
Hatherleigh, Exbourne & North Tawton882.9
Heathfield & Liverton21325.5
Heavitree East & Whipton South9119.3
Heavitree West & Polsloe16187.4
Higher Brixham00
Holsworthy, Bradworthy & Welcombe988.8
Honiton North & East7115.7
Honiton South & West12218.1
Horrabridge & Mary Tavy9148.3
Ilfracombe East474.3
Ilfracombe West467.8
Ipplepen & Broadhempston00
Ivybridge16136.1
Kilmington, Colyton & Uplyme559.9
Kingsbridge7107.8
Kingskerswell12195.3
Kingsteignton778.6
Lifton, Lamerton & Bridestowe12180.5
Loddiswell & Dartington25346
Lynton & Combe Martin591.2
Marldon, Stoke Gabriel & Kingswear12160.1
Middlemoor & Sowton29231.1
Mincinglake & Beacon Heath457
Morchard Bishop, Copplestone & Newton St Cyres794.3
Moretonhampstead, Lustleigh & East Dartmoor14237.9
Newton Abbot, Broadlands & Wolborough8138.7
Newton Abbot, Highweek697.6
Newton Abbot, Milber & Buckland9160.6
Newton Abbot, Town Centre9143.9
Ogwell, Mile End & Teigngrace13155
Okehampton792
Ottery St Mary & West Hill32359.3
Paignton Central00
Pennsylvania & University1194.6
Pinhoe & Whipton North19202.8
Poppleford, Otterton & Woodbury00
Preston & Shorton14158.7
Roundswell & Landkey12129.8
Salcombe, Malborough & Thurlestone10193.6
Seaton00
Shebbear, Cookworthy & Broadheath342.4
Shiphay & the Willows766.2
Sidbury, Offwell & Beer474.1
Sidmouth Sidford00
Sidmouth Town357.3
South Brent & Cornwood336.1
South Molton990.3
St James’s Park & Hoopern993.9
St Leonard’s25372
St Marychurch & Maidencombe8138.4
St Thomas East16195.5
St Thomas West14192.4
Starcross & Exminster14162
Tavistock15119.6
Tedburn, Shillingford & Higher Ashton10185.8
Teignmouth North670.9
Teignmouth South00
Tiverton East9121
Tiverton North & Outer16184.2
Tiverton West8126.8
Torquay Central10131.4
Totnes Town00
Uffculme & Hemyock16234
Upton & Hele693.6
Watcombe00
Wellswood789.2
Wembury, Brixton & Newton Ferrers10147.6
Westward Ho! & Northam South9141
Willand, Sampford Peverell & Halberton9123
Winkleigh & High Bickington795.7
Wonford & St Loye’s16193.1
Woolacombe, Georgeham & Croyde11204
Woolwell & Lee Mill11179.3
Yealmpton, Modbury & Aveton Gifford8103.8

Covid UK: Critically-ill patients from overwhelmed wards in London will be sent to West Country

More reports of critical patients being transferred to the South West:

Health officials today warned that people as young as 30 ‘will die from Covid’ as NHS hospitals in the West Country brace for an overspill of critically-ill patients from London under emergency plans.

Trusts in London and the south-east at the centre of the UK’s epidemic are preparing to transfer patients to hospitals in the south-west while patients in the east of England will be moved to the Midlands.

The massive Nightingale hospital at the London Excel Centre, which was created in record-time early in the pandemic only to be swiftly mothballed, is also expected to reopen within a fortnight, the Times reports.

National pairing arrangements have been put in place amid warnings from doctors that hospitals in the South have come under ‘immense pressure’ due to a surge in cases of ‘mutant’ Covid, with hospitals across the UK being told prepare to face the same Covid pressures as the NHS in the capital.

Full article can be found here: Jack Wright www.dailymail.co.uk

Struggling first time buyers living in Dorset ‘ghost village’ buy homes built for locals only

The nine homes have been built in Worth Matravers on the picturesque Isle of Purbeck, a  peninsula in Dorset.

Sixty per cent of the 180 houses there belong to second homeowners and lay empty most of the time. The average price of property in the area is about £400,000.

But the new homes have been sold at 75 per cent their market value and offered to people who live or work in the village or surrounding area.

When the homes are eventually sold on in the future there is a covenant stating they must go to local people with the 25 per cent price reduction in place.

The new-build properties have been built by Dorset-based housing association East Boro.

Full article here: Milly Vincent www.dailymail.co.uk 

Planning applications validated by EDDC week beginning 21 December

Vaccination – How quickly can the Government deliver?

There are a number of press articles discussing different aspects of the administrative task facing the Government and questioning whether it can expedite the vital task of getting “jabs into arms”.

For example, yesterday’s Times published an article under the heading: “Postcode lottery for life‑saving Covid vaccination”. This claimed that almost one in four people in England live in an area with no vaccination centre and 13 million people live in a constituency with no hospital, GP practice or community building for administering vaccines.

It contained a graphic showing that the three Devon coastal constituencies of: Totnes; Torbay and East Devon only had one centre each whilst all the other Devon constituencies had two and Exeter three (the two Plymouth constituencies have one each).

But the roll out of the the Oxford/AstraZeneca virus doesn’t necessarily require dedicated centres and is likely to be administered in a similar way to the ‘flu vaccine. The next two article indicate where, in Owl’s opinion, the real bottleneck lies.

The Observer view on information about the rollout of the Covid vaccine 

Observer editorial www.theguardian.com 

Tomorrow, Britain will witness an extraordinary moment in its grim struggle to limit the devastation caused by Covid-19 when the first Briton is injected with a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. The fact that this inoculation is occurring within a year of the emergence of a disease that has since ravaged the globe is an astonishing achievement, a tribute to world-class British science and a highly effective pharmaceutical industry. More importantly, the vaccine has arrived just in the nick of time. The newly discovered variant of Covid-19 is threatening to spread across the country and savage our beleaguered health service. A vaccine offers escape from the mounting horrors of this pandemic.

It is therefore right to celebrate the arrival of the AstraZeneca vaccine, though we should also note the pitfalls that await us. We are led by a government that has bungled so much of the Covid response – from its initial, criminally tardy response to the virus, to the shambolic distribution of PPE kit for health workers, to the pitiful rollout of test-and-trace programmes and to the bewildering U-turns on lockdown measures. We need drive and competence to undertake the speedy administration of the vaccine to millions of UK citizens. These qualities have not been displayed in abundance by the government to date.

On the other hand, early signs suggest the vaccine programme has been handled well. Shrewd choices were made in the selection of vaccines to purchase. The early rollout has been managed well and there is evidence of careful thought in the choice of early recipients. Equally, the decision to postpone the administration of second doses – to maximise numbers receiving first doses – suggests scientists and doctors advising the government are responding to the rapidly changing shape of the virus’s spread.

The decision has not been without its critics, and it will certainly have caused some alarm among older and more vulnerable citizens and their carers. They had expected to receive a second dose within days but will now have to wait for weeks. Rearranging thousands of appointments at short notice adds to the administrative burden facing already hard-pressed clinics and surgeries.

Nevertheless, chief medical officers are agreed this is the right move, both ethically and practically. Recipients of the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine still gain strong protection. Indeed, delaying a booster jab may even trigger longer-lasting immunity. This, in turn, allows millions of others to be given protection in the short term against a virus that threatens to spread rapidly across the UK. Any alternative would mean that people who could have been saved might face death.

Scientists, doctors and nurses have worked wonders. Now, politicians and administrators must seize the advantage they have been handed and bring an end to the suffering this terrible virus has inflicted on us. And they need to do so in a manner that reassures the public that salvation is at hand.

Here, the signs are less encouraging. Boris Johnson was asked last week how many vaccine doses are going to be made available over coming weeks but claimed exact answers would be unhelpful. Nothing could be further from the truth. The nation needs to know – specifically – how many doses are going to be administered week by week. Will it be a million? If so, we will have to wait a long time before lockdown ends. Or is it going to be 2m doses a week? In this case, an enjoyable summer would look a more realistic prospect. (Nor is vaccinating two million people a week that difficult. We inoculate against flu every winter on a similar scale.) A lot depends on these figures and Britain now needs to be told if we have the supply chain to match the efforts of our scientists and doctors. In blunt terms, our hopes of ending our misery rest on being given an accurate account of those numbers.

Britain ‘pays price’ for running down vaccine factories

Anyone in Whitehall ever consider the need for “strategic industries” are we just a service based economy? – Owl

Rhys Blakely, Science Correspondent www.thetimes.co.uk 

A lack of investment in capacity to produce vaccines left Britain woefully unprepared to face the pandemic, one of the country’s leading scientists said yesterday.

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, was instrumental in forging the partnership between the university and Astrazeneca to develop a British vaccine.

Yesterday, however, he voiced frustration that years of neglect by successive governments had left the country without the means to manufacture the vaccine at the pace required in a pandemic.

Britain has been forced to rely on repurposed infrastructure to make the Oxford vaccine, he said. “The government has been completely disinterested in building onshore manufacturing capacity for any of the life-sciences products,” he added. “I’m not talking about this government, I’m talking about all governments for the last ten years.

“And it turns out that manufacturing is a strategic asset for health security when stuff gets tough, which it is now.”

In May the government said that 30 million doses of the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine could be available by September but the target was later slashed. Last week Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that only 530,000 doses would be ready to go on Monday.

Meanwhile, Pfizer-Biontech, which produce the UK’s only other vaccine in Belgium, said yesterday that their supply chain was overstretched.

Chris Whitty and the chief medical officers for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland warned that supply was the biggest barrier to maximising the number of eligible people who receive the vaccine. “Vaccine shortage is a reality that cannot be wished away,” they said.

Sir John said vaccine production had been allowed to wither in the UK. “When the pandemic started, we were not in great shape and I think we are probably paying the price for that. It’s not Astrazeneca’s fault — it’s a national legacy issue, and it’s one of the things we’ve got to fix.”

Other countries had shown it was possible to produce the vaccine in large amounts, he added, with the Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine maker by volume, saying it has at least 50 million doses in vials ready to be used in clinics.

“We know people can make this vaccine at scale, that’s absolutely for sure,” Sir John said. “I think the fact that some people have many more stocks than we do probably reflects that we are operating on repurposed infrastructure.”

Astrazeneca was chosen as a partner by Oxford as one of the few companies with the ability to win regulatory approval for a new vaccine and to oversee large-scale production. It has struck deals to produce 3 billion doses around the world.

However, to produce the UK’s doses, the company has relied on a consortium of outside partners. They include Oxford Biomedica in Oxfordshire, Cobra Biologics in Staffordshire as well as a company called Halix in the Netherlands.

Once those companies make the vaccine in bulk it goes to a plant in Wrexham, run by an Indian company called Wockhardt, where it is decanted into vials, or transported to a similar plant in Germany.

In May the government said it would invest up to £93 million to speed up construction of the new Vaccines Manufacturing and Innovation Centre in Oxfordshire.

First announced in 2018, it is expected to eventually have capacity to produce enough doses for the whole UK population in as little as six months. However, it will not open until this summer and Sir John noted that Britain also lacks capacity to produce other medical products, such as monoclonal antibodies, at large scale.

He said Professor Whitty had been right to warn about supply problems. “There’s a potentially huge capacity to get vaccines into people,” he said. “And I think Chris was right when he alerted everybody to say supply is going to be an issue. If I had unlimited vaccine, I’d try and get the whole bloody country done in a month — because if you really wanted to you could.”

The Serum Institute of India supply is nearly ten times the 530,000 doses the British government has said will be released to the NHS on Monday.

SII expects to double its stockpile to 100 million doses — enough for 50 million people to be fully immunised — by the middle of this month. Half will be kept for India and the rest will go to 67 low and middle-income countries.

Kilmington Parish Council Publishes Draft Neighbourhood Plan

A Neighbourhood Plan for Kilmington is coming closer following the parish council’s publication, on Thursday 17th December, of a draft plan. 

Owl applauds the effort put into this endeavour by a small community and hopes that neighbourhood planning continues to be recognised in future government planning policies. – Stick with it! Owl

Joseph Bulmer www.midweekherald.co.uk 

In accordance with Regulation 14, residents and organisations are invited to comment on the draft Kilmington Neighbourhood Plan, which is displayed on the Kilmington Village website or available from the Clerk to the Parish Council. 

The plan, written by a team of volunteer members from the community and from Kilmington Parish Council, proposes a number of policies to influence the future planning of the parish. 

It is the community’s vision for how they would like to see the parish change in the coming years.  

Consultation work started five years ago and local residents have completed questionnaires and provided comment and ideas which, together with the previous Village Design Statement, underpin the plan. 

Neighbourhood planning enables communities to play a much stronger role in shaping the areas in which they live and work and in supporting new development proposals. 

This is because unlike past parish, village or town plans that communities may have prepared, a neighbourhood plan forms part of the development plan and sits alongside the local plan prepared by the local planning authority. 

Decisions on planning applications will be made using both the local plan and the neighbourhood plan, and any other material considerations. 

Kilmington Parish Council is keen to have feedback on the plan. You can download a response form on the website. The consultation period runs until Sunday, February 28, 2021. 

All feedback will be considered by the neighbourhood planning team. A planning judgement will be taken and a decision will be made over whether or not to amend the plan in response to each representation before the plan is submitted to East Devon District Council for further consultation and on to independent examination. 

Neighbourhood planning gives communities direct power to develop a shared vision for their neighbourhood and shape the development and growth of their local area. They are able to choose where they want new homes, shops and offices to be built, have their say on what those new buildings should look like and what infrastructure should be provided, and grant planning permission for the new buildings they want to see go ahead. 

Growth Support Programme launches to support business recovery

The Heart of the South West Growth Support Programme (GSP) is launching its new “Adapt + Revive” initiative which aims to equip businesses in the region with vital digital skills to help support economic recovery. 

Didn’t EDDC get there first for East Devon businesses in September – see post? Owl

Joseph Bulmer www.midweekherald.co.uk

Businesses across Devon, Somerset, Plymouth and Torbay will be offered support and training focusing on digital marketing, e-commerce and website management through the scheme. 

A number of training webinars are also being aimed specifically at businesses operating in the tourism, food and drink and retail sectors. 

Businesses that have been through the GSP have been able to apply the insights and skills gained through the scheme to greatly improve their business’ practice and digital presence online. 

Through the programme, which continues until the end of March, businesses receive an initial 1:1 appointment with a local business adviser who is able to review the existing business’ strategy and identify further support. 

After an initial consultation, businesses that qualify for additional support are offered a further nine hours of advice in 1:1 sessions and online webinars, covering a range of essential business topics: finance, human resources, innovation, digital marketing, business planning and e-commerce. 

Councillor Rufus Gilbert, Devon County Council’s Cabinet Member for Economy, Skills and Training, said: “The support being offered on digital marketing and online retail through this initiative, has become even more valuable to businesses since the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. I would encourage anyone who would benefit from the training to register their interest now. 

“We’re really pleased with the number of businesses who have responded positively to the Growth Support Programme since it started. The continued business advice that the Programme offers with be increasingly helpful as businesses continue to navigate the changing economic landscape – especially when considering the implications of Covid-19 and the end of the UK Brexit Transition period next month.” 

The Heart of the South West Growth Support Programme project is receiving up to £1,294,302 of funding from the England European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) as part of the European Structural and Investment Funds Growth Programme 2014-2020. 

To find out more about the Growth Support Programme, check your business’ eligibility and to register your interest, see the page on the Growth Hub’s website. 

Council and businesses join forces over A30/A303 upgrade

Devon County Council and South West business leaders have joined forces in calling on the Government to commit to upgrading the full length of the delay-ridden A303/A30/A358 corridor. 

Government getting cold feet, when were they ever warm? – Owl

Joseph Bulmer www.midweekherald.co.uk 

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps’ backing for the Stonehenge tunnel has been warmly welcomed, but there are mounting concerns that the Government has got cold feet over funding vital improvements to the whole route despite Highways England citing an independent report that says it would boost the South West economy by £39 billion. 

Analysis commissioned by a campaign partnership of South West local authorities and LEPs showed that improving the whole A303/A30/A358 corridor would not only deliver a massive uplift to the region’s economy from Cornwall to Wiltshire, it would also create 21,000 new jobs over time. 

The call has been backed by the British Chambers of Commerce South West and CBI South West who represent thousands of businesses across the region. 

Doctors will be paid an extra £10 for every jab they give care home residents

Doctors will be paid an extra £10 for every Covid vaccine dose they give to care home residents or staff, NHS England has said.

Xantha Leatham www.dailymail.co.uk

GPs will be given the additional payment, on top of the standard £12.58 fee for each jab, to compensate for the ‘additional time and resources’ required to visit patients on site.

A letter sent to all primary care networks by health leaders said they had asked local Covid vaccination services to prioritise care home residents and care home staff to ensure this priority group is vaccinated against Covid-19 as quickly as possible.

It reads: ‘We appreciate the additional time and resources needed to deliver the vaccine in a care home setting, especially at this pressurised time of year. Therefore the NHS is providing an additional supplement of £10 per dose on top of the item of service fee for all vaccines delivered in a care home setting.’

Two million Oxford jabs will be made every week

But we were supposed to have a stockpile of 30 million doses by now weren’t we? – Owl

Rhys Blakely, Science Correspondent | Oliver Wright, Policy Editor www.thetimes.co.uk 

Two million doses of the Oxford vaccine are due to be supplied each week by the middle of this month as pressure builds on the government to speed up immunisations.

Concerns are growing over the rate achieved so far and the NHS is having to cope with record numbers of hospital admissions driven by a new, more transmissible strain of the coronavirus.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said on Wednesday that only 530,000 doses of the Oxford vaccine would be ready on Monday, despite original plans to have a stockpile of 30 million by the autumn.

A key member of the Oxford-Astrazeneca team told The Times that they expected two million doses to be ready each week in just over a fortnight. The source said that there would be a million ready in total next week, adding: “The plan is then to build it up fairly rapidly — by the third week of January we should get to two million a week.”

Members of the team are frustrated at the pace of production, for which they blamed Britain’s virtually non- existent vaccine manufacturing capacity before the pandemic.

The government has ordered 100 million doses of the Oxford vaccine, which was approved this week. Scientific advisers have calculated that at least two million vaccinations a week could be needed, as well as a lockdown that includes school closures, to avoid the pressures on intensive care exceeding the peak of the first wave.

From another Times article “When will I get the Covid vaccine?” (which contains a handy interactive ready reckoner) these are the number of people in the East Devon vaccine queue, assuming everyone chooses to get vaccinated:

East Devon

17,322 care home staff and residents, frontline healthcare workers and over-80s.

6,780 over-75s

11,738 over-70s and clinically vulnerable

9,453 over-65s

16,442 people at risk

7,437 over-60s

6,319 over-55s 

6,312 over-50s.

Nationally the numbers are:

4.4 million care home residents and workers, frontline health staff and over-80s

1.6 million over-75s

3.9 million over-70s and clinically vulnerable

2.3 million over-65s

7.5 million at risk people

1.9 million over-60s

1.9 million over-55s

2.3 million over-50s.

Rescheduling the second dose – decisive pragmatism or an unjustified U-turn?

On the 30 December health care workers were informed that:

 “Prioritising the first doses of vaccine for as many people as possible on the priority list will protect the greatest number of at-risk people overall in the shortest possible time and will have the greatest impact on reducing mortality, severe disease and hospitalisations and in protecting the NHS and equivalent health services. Operationally this will mean that second doses of both vaccines will be administered towards the end of the recommended vaccine dosing schedule of 12 weeks.” 

This provoked a debate and criticism from the BMA to which the four Chief Medical Officers responded:

“We have to follow public health principles and act at speed if we are to beat this pandemic which is running rampant in our communities, and we believe the public will understand and thank us for this decisive action.”

The Guardian article below summarises the debate and Owl’s next post may help to put some of the pressures in perspective.

Covid vaccine: chief medical officers defend rescheduling of second doses

Linda Geddes www.theguardian.com

The UK’s chief medical officers have defended plans to delay giving the second dose of a Covid vaccine to more than 500,000 people who have received the first jab, saying they believed the public would “understand and thank us for this decisive action” despite an outcry among doctors.

Recipients of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had previously been told there would be a three-week gap between doses, with many already booked in for their second jab.

But the government announced a change to its Covid vaccination strategy on Wednesday, saying second doses of the newly approved Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and the previously approved Pfizer/BioNTech jab would now be given up to 12 weeks after the first dose.

The move applies to people scheduled to have their second dose of the Pfizer jab after 4 January, as well as those yet to receive either jab. The government said it hoped the approach would free up more doses and mean as many people as possible would soon get their first jab and have some protection against the disease.

The new regime was backed by the chief medical officers of the four UK nations, with instructions given to health service leaders in England by NHS bosses on Wednesday to postpone many of the scheduled second Pfizer/BioNTech jabs.

The announcement caused controversy, however. Pfizer and BioNTech warned that two doses of their vaccine were required for maximum protection against Covid and that they did not have evidence that the first dose alone offered protection after three weeks.

Azeem Majeed, a professor of primary care and public health at Imperial College London and a practising GP, said he was shocked by the change of plan.

“We’ve got thousands or perhaps tens of thousands of people who have already booked their second jabs, and these are people who are all elderly, so they often have to make special arrangements for their care or have someone to bring them down. Someone is going to have to ring all these patients to cancel their appointments and rebook them, so it is going to create a lot of work for people as well,” he said.

“Clearly the people making these rules are not the ones having to enforce them. I understand the rationale that the government wants to increase the vaccine supply to make sure more people are immunised, but I think that could have been done for people starting from now, rather than cancelling the ones who have already been booked in, which is very disruptive.”

In a joint statement on Thursday night, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer of England, and his counterparts in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland stood by their decision, although they acknowledged that it would “distress patients who were looking forward to being fully immunised”. They added: “However, we are all conscious that for every 1,000 people boosted with a second dose of Covid-19 vaccine in January (who will as a result gain marginally on protection from severe disease), 1,000 new people can’t have substantial initial protection which is in most cases likely to raise them from 0% protected to at least 70% protected.”

They added: “We have to follow public health principles and act at speed if we are to beat this pandemic which is running rampant in our communities, and we believe the public will understand and thank us for this decisive action.”

Earlier, one doctor who spoke to the Guardian on condition on anonymity said they hoped to continue with the original schedule for the second dose rather than cancelling appointments, saying that to do otherwise would put their most vulnerable patients at risk and break promises to patients.

Alison Bolam, a GP at Horfield health centre in Bristol, said her practice would take a similar approach. If we try to ring and cancel 1,000 80-year-olds, and then ring 1,000 75-year-olds and ask them to come in instead, we risk wasting vaccine because we don’t have the staff capacity to do that with the bank holiday in the way,” she said. “If anyone gets the first vaccine now, the second one will be 10 to 12 weeks later, but for anybody who has already had it, they will get their second vaccine as originally scheduled.”

The British Medical Association said it was unreasonable and unfair to expect practices to cancel and rebook appointments for patients to have their second dose.

The chair of the BMA’s GP committee, Dr Richard Vautrey, said: “Local leaders are telling us that is unprofessional and impractical to amend the appointments for thousands of frail, elderly patients, particularly those booked and who have already made arrangements to have their second vaccination in the next two weeks.”

Vautrey called on the government to publish a scientifically validated justification for the new approach, adding that rebooking appointments would cause huge logistical problems.

The Guardian understands a number of NHS clinical commissioning groups were holding meetings on Thursday on the issue, to decide how to proceed.

Dr Helen Salisbury, a GP and medical adviser to the health experience research group at the University of Oxford, tweeted that the health secretary Matt Hancock, should help to phone her elderly patients and explain why their second jab had been delayed. She said her primary care network needed to cancel and rebook 1,160 appointments.

“At 5 mins per phone call, that’s 193 hours’ work. Not to mention the grief & anger,” she tweeted.

Her comments unleashed a flurry of responses from other GPs, with some questioning whether it was ethical to delay a second dose when patients had given consent for the first dose on the premise that they would receive the second three weeks later.

The Doctors’ Association UK said it had sent a letter to Hancock and others involved in the change of strategy regarding the Pfizer vaccine. “A patient can’t consent for a treatment then have the treatment changed without their permission, especially when the evidence for change is lacking,” it said. Dr Vinesh Patel, a GP partner and spokesman for the DAUK’s GP committee, said using the Pfizer jab outside the trialled vaccination regime was a huge gamble.

Others, however, welcomed the change in approach. Dr Ed Turnham, a GP in Norwich, said the MHRA should be congratulated for its “brave, pragmatic decision”.

“I think most of our elderly patients will be happy that this will reduce the delay in protecting their friends and relatives, and reduce the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed,” he tweeted.

Prof Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, sympathised with GPs and their patients but said the new strategy had merits. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation had “put forward a compelling case that this is the best way to protect as many people as possible from the virus, and this is the decision that has been made,” he said.

But he added: “NHS England’s guidance does allow for some clinical discretion for practices to go ahead with second vaccinations where necessary, and if a practice uses this it is important it is respected.”

COn the 30 December health care workers were informed that:

 “Prioritising the first doses of vaccine for as many people as possible on the priority list will protect the greatest number of at-risk people overall in the shortest possible time and will have the greatest impact on reducing mortality, severe disease and hospitalisations and in protecting the NHS and equivalent health services. Operationally this will mean that second doses of both vaccines will be administered towards the end of the recommended vaccine dosing schedule of 12 weeks.” 

This provoked a debate and criticism from the BMA to which the four Chief Medical Officers responded:

“We have to follow public health principles and act at speed if we are to beat this pandemic which is running rampant in our communities, and we believe the public will understand and thank us for this decisive action.”

The Guardian article below summarises the debate and  Owl’s next post may help to put some of the pressures in perspective.

Covid vaccine: chief medical officers defend rescheduling of second doses

Linda Geddes www.theguardian.com

The UK’s chief medical officers have defended plans to delay giving the second dose of a Covid vaccine to more than 500,000 people who have received the first jab, saying they believed the public would “understand and thank us for this decisive action” despite an outcry among doctors.

Recipients of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had previously been told there would be a three-week gap between doses, with many already booked in for their second jab.

But the government announced a change to its Covid vaccination strategy on Wednesday, saying second doses of the newly approved Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and the previously approved Pfizer/BioNTech jab would now be given up to 12 weeks after the first dose.

The move applies to people scheduled to have their second dose of the Pfizer jab after 4 January, as well as those yet to receive either jab. The government said it hoped the approach would free up more doses and mean as many people as possible would soon get their first jab and have some protection against the disease.

The new regime was backed by the chief medical officers of the four UK nations, with instructions given to health service leaders in England by NHS bosses on Wednesday to postpone many of the scheduled second Pfizer/BioNTech jabs.

The announcement caused controversy, however. Pfizer and BioNTech warned that two doses of their vaccine were required for maximum protection against Covid and that they did not have evidence that the first dose alone offered protection after three weeks.

Azeem Majeed, a professor of primary care and public health at Imperial College London and a practising GP, said he was shocked by the change of plan.

“We’ve got thousands or perhaps tens of thousands of people who have already booked their second jabs, and these are people who are all elderly, so they often have to make special arrangements for their care or have someone to bring them down. Someone is going to have to ring all these patients to cancel their appointments and rebook them, so it is going to create a lot of work for people as well,” he said.

“Clearly the people making these rules are not the ones having to enforce them. I understand the rationale that the government wants to increase the vaccine supply to make sure more people are immunised, but I think that could have been done for people starting from now, rather than cancelling the ones who have already been booked in, which is very disruptive.”

In a joint statement on Thursday night, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer of England, and his counterparts in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland stood by their decision, although they acknowledged that it would “distress patients who were looking forward to being fully immunised”. They added: “However, we are all conscious that for every 1,000 people boosted with a second dose of Covid-19 vaccine in January (who will as a result gain marginally on protection from severe disease), 1,000 new people can’t have substantial initial protection which is in most cases likely to raise them from 0% protected to at least 70% protected.”

They added: “We have to follow public health principles and act at speed if we are to beat this pandemic which is running rampant in our communities, and we believe the public will understand and thank us for this decisive action.”

Earlier, one doctor who spoke to the Guardian on condition on anonymity said they hoped to continue with the original schedule for the second dose rather than cancelling appointments, saying that to do otherwise would put their most vulnerable patients at risk and break promises to patients.

Alison Bolam, a GP at Horfield health centre in Bristol, said her practice would take a similar approach. If we try to ring and cancel 1,000 80-year-olds, and then ring 1,000 75-year-olds and ask them to come in instead, we risk wasting vaccine because we don’t have the staff capacity to do that with the bank holiday in the way,” she said. “If anyone gets the first vaccine now, the second one will be 10 to 12 weeks later, but for anybody who has already had it, they will get their second vaccine as originally scheduled.”

The British Medical Association said it was unreasonable and unfair to expect practices to cancel and rebook appointments for patients to have their second dose.

The chair of the BMA’s GP committee, Dr Richard Vautrey, said: “Local leaders are telling us that is unprofessional and impractical to amend the appointments for thousands of frail, elderly patients, particularly those booked and who have already made arrangements to have their second vaccination in the next two weeks.”

Vautrey called on the government to publish a scientifically validated justification for the new approach, adding that rebooking appointments would cause huge logistical problems.

The Guardian understands a number of NHS clinical commissioning groups were holding meetings on Thursday on the issue, to decide how to proceed.

Dr Helen Salisbury, a GP and medical adviser to the health experience research group at the University of Oxford, tweeted that the health secretary Matt Hancock, should help to phone her elderly patients and explain why their second jab had been delayed. She said her primary care network needed to cancel and rebook 1,160 appointments.

“At 5 mins per phone call, that’s 193 hours’ work. Not to mention the grief & anger,” she tweeted.

Her comments unleashed a flurry of responses from other GPs, with some questioning whether it was ethical to delay a second dose when patients had given consent for the first dose on the premise that they would receive the second three weeks later.

The Doctors’ Association UK said it had sent a letter to Hancock and others involved in the change of strategy regarding the Pfizer vaccine. “A patient can’t consent for a treatment then have the treatment changed without their permission, especially when the evidence for change is lacking,” it said. Dr Vinesh Patel, a GP partner and spokesman for the DAUK’s GP committee, said using the Pfizer jab outside the trialled vaccination regime was a huge gamble.

Others, however, welcomed the change in approach. Dr Ed Turnham, a GP in Norwich, said the MHRA should be congratulated for its “brave, pragmatic decision”.

“I think most of our elderly patients will be happy that this will reduce the delay in protecting their friends and relatives, and reduce the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed,” he tweeted.

Prof Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, sympathised with GPs and their patients but said the new strategy had merits. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation had “put forward a compelling case that this is the best way to protect as many people as possible from the virus, and this is the decision that has been made,” he said.

But he added: “NHS England’s guidance does allow for some clinical discretion for practices to go ahead with second vaccinations where necessary, and if a practice uses this it is important it is respected.”

People behaving badly – “Blood on their hands”

There have been a number of Covid related stories swirling across the media in the past few days and Owl will attempt to bring them together in a succession of posts.

Given Owl’s first post today about crowd behaviour in tourist spots, recalling the impassioned “blood on their hands” call from an exasperated consultant would seem a good place to start: 

Fuming Covid doc says Brits not wearing face masks ‘have blood on their hands’

Matt Clemenson www.dailystar.co.uk

One of the UK’s top intensive care docs has sensationally hit out at the nation’s Covidiots – claiming anyone who is still not wearing masks this far into the pandemic “has blood on their hands”.

Prof Hugh Montgomery, a consultant at University College Hospital in London, was speaking on Times Radio when he insisted the government cannot solely be to blame for the recent spike in coronavirus infections and deaths.

“We can’t blame the Government, we can’t blame the Tier system. This is people behaving badly. I’m just very angry about this,” he said.

“If we were wearing masks, washing hands, this virus would not be as it is.

“‘Anyone who doesn’t wear their mask – they have blood on their hands.”

People turn around and go home again as seafronts packed on New Year’s Day

It’s the first day of 2021 and people have been heading out in their droves to idyllic waterfront spots across Devon and Cornwall to take their first stroll of the year.

[Online Plymouth Herald contains many more comments and short videos]

Sarah Elmes www.plymouthherald.co.uk

But due to ongoing Tier 3 restrictions – forcing food businesses to close apart from collection and takeaway – beaches and waterfront locations have been packed full of people queuing up for fish and chips and other Westcountry delights.

Many people have got in touch to say they personally didn’t want to risk the crowds, which can prevent social distancing from taking place.

Others have said they have simply turned around and gone back home again.

The Plymouth Hoe promenade was one such busy spot today.

One concerned resident got in touch to say: “Have you seen the amount of people on the Hoe? I’ve just gone to walk my dog but had to turn around – it’s heaving with no social distancing and groups of more than six.

“There were queues outside the chip shops and ice cream vans. It’s making all of our hard work within the NHS absolutely seem pointless.”

Elsewhere in Devon, Charlotte Evens took a trip to Exmouth beach today only to be confronted with queues and queues of people.

“We’ve just popped out for a walk but decided to turn around and go home again due to the high amount of people,” she said.

“It’s absolutely crazy down there.”

Queues on Exmouth beach front

(Image: Charlotte Evens)

She added: “There were huge queues at The Ice Cream shop and the chip shop next door. Also the new coffee hut by the large new building.”

The moors have also been extremely busy today and police have warned snow tourists not to visit.

Tavistock response sergeant Sgt Si Wellfair said: “It’s pretty bad. We’ve got at least two to two-and-a-half miles of parked cars. People really need to avoid this road for the time being and we’re trying to avoid more difficulties by urging folks to find different spots on Dartmoor to go for their New Year’s Day walks.” Read more on that here.

Covid data for Devon shows where numbers are rising

New official data shows where coronavirus infection rates and cases are rising across Devon.

Robert Rowlands www.devonlive.com 

Statistics released from the Government today show there have been 142 new cases reported across the county.

That takes the total since the pandemic arrived to 12,067.

Analysis of clusters in the county – areas where more than two cases have been reported – shows where infection rates are rising, falling and staying the same.

The data for the seven days to December 26 shows that 10 areas of East Devon have seen their rate rise according to the new data.

The same is true of eight areas of Exeter, nine areas of Mid Devon, two areas of North Devon, eight areas of South Hams, six areas of Teignbridge, five areas of Torbay, six areas of Torridge and five areas of West Devon.

In addition, one new area without a cluster has emerged – Paignton Central in Torbay.

Five other areas remain cluster-free, meaning they have two cases or fewer: Oakehampton, Seaton, Totnes Town, Great Torrington and Ipplepen & Broadhempston.

The area with the most positive cases remains Chagford, Princetown and Dartmoor (64) after an outbreak at the prison.

[Owl reproduces the detailed data for East Devon and Exeter – see devonlive article for details of the remaining Devon districts]

Data from UK government released December 31, showing new confirmed cases and infection rate per 100,000 in the seven days to December 26. Note – place names that are bolded up have seen their infection rate and case numbers go up

East Devon


 
East Devon (Devon)Axminster13139.5

 
East Devon (Devon)Budleigh Salterton696.5

 
East Devon (Devon)Clyst, Exton & Lympstone11160.9

 
East Devon (Devon)Cranbrook, Broadclyst & Stoke Canon26193.1

 
East Devon (Devon)Dunkesewell, Upottery & Stockland14241.1

 
East Devon (Devon)Exmouth Brixington692.6

 
East Devon (Devon)Exmouth Halsdon13187.4

 
East Devon (Devon)Exmouth Littleham21279.5

 
East Devon (Devon)Exmouth Town8108.3

 
East Devon (Devon)Exmouth Withycombe Raleigh12161.9

 
East Devon (Devon)Feniton & Whimple19216.9

 
East Devon (Devon)Honiton North & East13214.9

 
East Devon (Devon)Honiton South & West11200

 
East Devon (Devon)Kilmington, Colyton & Uplyme447.9

 
East Devon (Devon)Ottery St Mary & West Hill27303.1

 
East Devon (Devon)Poppleford, Otterton & Woodbury348.8

 
East Devon (Devon)Seaton00

 
East Devon (Devon)Sidbury, Offwell & Beer474.1

 
East Devon (Devon)Sidmouth Sidford685.3

 
East Devon (Devon)Sidmouth Town6114.5

*Indicates there were fewer than three cases

Exeter


 
Exeter (Devon)Alphington & Marsh Barton12163.4

 
Exeter (Devon)Central Exeter17140.6

 
Exeter (Devon)Countess Wear & Topsham11142.6

 
Exeter (Devon)Exwick & Foxhayes12158.6

 
Exeter (Devon)Heavitree East & Whipton South13172.4

 
Exeter (Devon)Heavitree West & Polsloe11128.8

 
Exeter (Devon)Middlemoor & Sowton18143.4

 
Exeter (Devon)Mincinglake & Beacon Heath685.5

 
Exeter (Devon)Pennsylvania & University1194.6

 
Exeter (Devon)Pinhoe & Whipton North12128.1

 
Exeter (Devon)St James’s Park & Hoopern10104.3

 
Exeter (Devon)St Leonard’s17253

 
Exeter (Devon)St Thomas East16195.5

 
Exeter (Devon)St Thomas West13178.7

 
Exeter (Devon)Wonford & St Loye’s15181

Critical Care patients transferred from South East to region with lowest ratio of critical care beds

Last March Owl pointed out that the South West has the lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. It also has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality).

Modelling at the time suggested we, in the South West, needed six times more beds than currently exists in the region (600 per cent), i.e. we have least slack. These metrics  showed that London (surprise, surprise) should be the best equipped to manage the pandemic.

So it is very surprising to hear that London is having to move critical care patients elsewhere and, more particularly, Kent patients have been transferred to Bristol and Plymouth. See:

Kent’s critical care patients are being transferred to Plymouth

Carl Eve www.plymouthherald.co.uk 

Critical care patients from Kent are being transferred to Derriford Hospital in Plymouth.

Patients from the South East are being moved to hospitals in the South West to alleviate pressure, it has been confirmed.

The Health Service Journal (HSJ) recently revealed it had seen a leaked report which suggested requests had been made to transfer patients in need of intensive care from London’s hospitals to Yorkshire, where Covid-19 rates are far lower.

It noted that sources in intensive care had told the HSJ there had been requests in recent days for transfers from London to several major hospitals in Yorkshire, because of a lack of capacity in the capital.

Now it has been confirmed critically ill patients are being moved to Derriford Hospital. The requests so far relate to small numbers of patients.

Sources at the hospital have told PlymouthLive that the South West is taking or preparing to take intensive care patients to lighten the pressure on the South East’s hospitals.

Currently critical care is running at more than 100 percent of capacity across London and the South East.

On Monday night, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy was at 114 and 113 per cent respectively.

In comparison, the North East and Yorkshire region has 67.6 per cent occupancy while the South West is basking in an occupancy rate of 66.5 percent.

HSJ claim this internal NHS critical care capacity dashboard reveals intensive care unit occupancy as of Monday night (Image: HSJ)

The HSJ reported that it had asked NHS England how many inter-regional transfers had taken place in the last month because of a lack of ICU capacity. It did not respond specifically to this question but said the NHS’ plans to manage “significant pressure” have always included mutual aid to manage admissions.

The statement added: “While the NHS is opening more beds in places like London to care for the most unwell patients, it is vital that people continue to follow government guidance and do everything possible to reduce transmission of the virus.”

The below table, taken from the critical care dashboard data leaked to HSJ, shows critical care occupancy figures for each NHS region as of the evening of December 28:

RegionCritical care occupancy of “standard footprint”% covid-19 patients (“covid load”)
London11462
South East11360
East of England10060
Midlands8457
North West8143
North East and Yorkshire6741
South West6630

In response to questions as to whether patients had been brought to the South West from London and Kent, or if plans were afoot to do so, an NHS spokesperson told PlymouthLive: “The NHS has tried and tested plans in place to manage significant pressure either from high COVID-19 infection rates or non-Covid winter demands and this has always included mutual aid practices whereby hospitals work together to manage admissions.

“While the NHS is opening more beds in places like London to care for the most unwell patients, it is vital that people continue to follow government guidance and do everything possible to reduce transmission of the virus.”

Tonight the BBC has confirmed patients from the South East are being transferred here to Plymouth.