Daily Archives: 5 Oct 2022

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5 Oct 2022

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Latest Red Wall Voting Intention (3-4 October 2022)

One of the critical questions for the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can hold onto the mostly northern, traditionally Labour voting constituencies that they won in 2019—often described, if somewhat inaccurately, as the Red Wall.1 Accordingly, we at Redfield and Wilton Strategies have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com

In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that we poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote to Labour’s 37.9%. Reform UK, previously known as the Brexit Party, came third in these seats with 6.5% of the vote.

Our latest Red Wall poll finds Labour leading the Conservatives by 38%, a staggering twenty-three points more than in our previous poll two weeks ago, and the largest lead ever achieved by any party in our Red Wall polling. Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 19-20 September) are as follows:

Labour 61% (+12)

Conservative 23% (-11)

Reform UK 3% (-4)

Liberal Democrat 7% (+2)

Green 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 31%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 19% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 93% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while just 43% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Prime Minister Liz Truss’s approval rating in the Red Wall registers at -38%, 45 points lower than her rating of +7% in the Red Wall two weeks. 56% of those in the Red Wall, including 50% of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they disapprove of Truss’s performance. Only 18% of respondents approve. 

36% approve and 24% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of +12%, ten points higher than two weeks ago.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Keir Starmer and Liz Truss, 47% of Red Wall voters choose Keir Starmer (+14), 22% choose Liz Truss (-18), and 31% say they don’t know (+4) which would be a better Prime Minister.

On policy delivery, respondents in the Red Wall are most likely to say they significantly (15%) or fairly (28%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the coronavirus pandemic. 

By comparison, majorities of respondents say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on taxation (55%), ‘Levelling Up’ (54%), the economy (53%), and the NHS (50%).  

With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (21%) or fairly (32%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 51% significantly or fairly trust Labour on education and on benefits.

On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on the economy (34%) and on immigration (32%).

When the two parties are pitted against each other on the issues, Labour are more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on all the policy issues listed. Labour holds leads of more than 30 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust most to tackle poverty (47% to 13%), to support the NHS (47% to 15%), to manage housing (45% to 14%), and to invest in ‘left behind’ areas (43% to 13%). 

Labour is also more trusted by Red Wall voters to manage the economy (43% to 17%).  

On the cost-of-living crisis, 73% of members of the Red Wall public say no, the Government is not taking the right measures to address this crisis. This figure is 9 points up from the 64% who answered no to the same question two weeks ago. 

Finally, 63% of Red Wall voters say no, they do not feel like the Government has been making a clear effort to ‘level up’ the area in which they live.

1 Prior to the 2019 General Election, the term ‘Red Wall’ originally pertained to a broader set of adjacent Labour-voting constituencies whose profile made them susceptible to being won by the Conservatives’ pro-Brexit platform. However, many of these constituencies were not ultimately won by the Conservative Party in 2019. Since then, the term ‘Red Wall’ has, in the media and elsewhere, interchangeably referred to both its original, broader definition and the traditionally Labour constituencies that the Conservatives won. For the purpose of this tracker polling, we refer to the post-2019 GE definition.

A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.

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Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 19 September

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North Devon Link Road junction “unaffordable”

And likely to get more unaffordable every time Kwasi Karteng opens his mouth – Owl

Phase two of the Tiverton junction has been paused

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

The junction under construction at Tiverton (courtesy: Devon County Council)

Plans to complete a new junction on the A361 North Devon Link Road at Tiverton are currently ‘unaffordable,’ councillors have heard.

On Tuesday [4 October], members of Mid Devon District Council’s ruling cabinet reluctantly agreed to pause phase two of the junction, which involves adding a bridge across the link road along with northern slip roads and landscaping.

Southern side slip roads were completed four years ago as part of the Tiverton Eastern Urban Extension of hundreds of new homes. A new road is currently being built to link the junction with Blundell’s Road.

Without phase two, a further area for new housing – ‘area B’ – cannot be built, although this is a longer-term aspiration and will not impact the current housing projects.

The council was already short of the previous £10.1 million estimated cost, having only secured £8.2 million of funding from Homes England, but a previous cabinet meeting in July heard how an updated estimate would now “significantly exceed” the earlier one.

The increased amount, which was not revealed, is blamed on significant rises in construction costs, volatile prices of materials and the need for a greater contingency.

After temporarily pausing the project in the summer, the council asked officers to find either additional funding or revise the scheme to make it affordable whilst still achieving its ‘core objectives.’

But in an update to members this week, Councillor Richard Chesterton (Conservative, Lower Culm), cabinet member for planning and economic regeneration, said this has proved unsuccessful.

Asking cabinet to support an indefinite pause, he said: “Clearly, this is not a recommendation which is made lightly, but it is felt to now be the most sensible course of action available to the council.

“Members will be well aware of the trying financial times in which we find ourselves currently and we’re not alone as a council in considering difficult decisions around pausing infrastructure schemes in the face of escalating costs.

“A decision to pause the scheme at this time does not mean that the scheme will not or cannot be delivered, but just that delivery will have to be reconsidered at a point in the future.”

The council is currently unwilling to borrow money to cover the shortfall.

It would add “significant further financial pressures … at a time of increasing economic and financial uncertainty and pressures and this approach is therefore not one which is considered prudent,” a report says.

As well as agreeing to pausing the scheme, cabinet also backed a second recommendation for officers to liaise with Homes England about “identifying alternative options to utilise” its funding to support other aspects of the eastern urban extension.

If these alternative options are found, it also asks officers to develop them into a “viable proposition” that can be considered by cabinet.

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South West Water boss trebles pay with huge bonus as beaches are shut due to raw sewage in sea

Trickle down economics in action.

As Susan Davy gets more so do we.

But it’s not just trickling it’s gushing forth and spewing onto our beaches.

A palpable success for Trussonomics. – Owl

David Parsley inews.co.uk 

South West Water boss Susan Davy has more than trebled her annual salary with an award of more than £1m in bonus and benefits despite overseeing the closure of beaches after raw sewage was pumped into the sea around Devon and Cornwall.

Ms Davy, who is chief executive of South West Water’s parent company Pennon, is paid a base salary of £456,000, but with her bonus, incentives and benefits the company’s latest set of accounts show her total pay was bumped up to £1.6m.

The boost to her bank account comes as more than a dozen beaches across Devon and Cornwall have been shut due to pollution.

In the last week, Exmouth beach in East Devon has been unsafe to swim in since Tuesday’s heavy rain, either through continuous sewage dumping, or at least two separate dumping incidents.

A live interactive map created by Surfers Against Sewage displays a red cross on the beaches that have had sewage overflow discharges in the past 48 hours.

Exmouth had a red cross on Tuesday evening, indicating a recent spill, and still had a red cross on Thursday evening, indicating a second, or constant, spill.

Eleven beaches across the Cornish coast were also unsafe for 48 hours after overflow sewage was pumped into popular surf spots by South West Water.

Ms Davy’s bonus was paid despite South West Water having the worst environmental record of any water company in the UK.

The company has a one star Environment Agency rating, and is considered “below target” or “significantly below target” across the board for its environmental performance.

The company, which claims to be committed to the environment in its annual report, is also currently under investigation by watchdog Ofwat over the management of its sewage plants.

In June, David Black, chief executive of Ofwat, said: “Our concerns have grown further about South West Water’s operation of its wastewater assets and environmental performance. As a result, we have opened an additional enforcement case into South West Water.

“We have now opened enforcement cases against the majority of wastewater companies in England and Wales. From what we have seen so far, the scale of the issue here is shocking. Companies must resolve any problems at wastewater treatment works and do so quickly. Where they have breached their obligations, we will not hesitate to act.”

Last autumn, the Government voted to continue to allow the pumping of raw sewage into the sea around popular tourist beaches. If they had outlawed the practice, private water companies would have been forced to invest in improving their treatment of sewage.

Richard Foord, the recently elected Liberal Democrat MP for Tiverton and Honiton, said: “Our children should be encouraged to enjoy the natural world around them, especially during the summer holidays. But this week our rivers and local beauty spots have been channels for human sewage, making them a serious health risk.

“Still, South West Water executives have the audacity to take bonuses that are almost double their outrageously high salaries. With a one star rating from the Environment Agency, how can they justify this?”

A spokesman for South West Water  said: “The investments and changes we are already making across our network are delivering real results, including a one-third reduction in pollution incidents last year to the lowest number in 10 years.

“We are committed to bringing this down further year on year by strengthening our round-the-clock response, increasing resourcing levels by 25 per cent, and investing £330 million over the next three years in our wastewater network.”