Shopping centre in Newport sells for less than the price of a London flat

The troubled Kingsway Shopping Centre in Newport, Gwent, went for £615,000, almost £400,000 below its guide price weeks after going into receivership.

Emily Braeger www.express.co.uk

The sale of the city centre site, which is home to Starbucks and Sainsbury’s, is another major blow to the struggling high streets of Britain which have been “slowly depleting for years”.

Dave Sayce, owner of Compare My Move, told the Express: “Sadly, the sale of the Kingsway is a sign of the times.

Amanda Abbington shuts down feud rumours with Gio and says they ‘laugh a lot’

“The high street has been slowly depleting for years now and has really struggled to compete with the ease and variety of online shopping.”

Kingsway – which currently provides space for 36 retail units, an office space, a gym, and a car park – was put on the market after its previous leasehold owners were placed into liquidation due to financial difficulties.

An unknown buyer has snapped up the leasehold on the centre for £85,000 less than a cramped 492 square foot one bed flat in Kensington, London, which is going for £700,000 on Rightmove.co.uk.

Traditional retailers in recent years have been battling the growth of online shopping, fragile consumer confidence and rising costs.

While businesses and shoppers in Kingsway welcomed the new owner, some said they were anxious to hear of plans to increase footfall in the struggling centre, where many units are currently vacant.

Jason Young, 52, runs the Eazability store selling mobility scooters and a range of sofas for people with difficulties but says he is considering the future of the store at the centre as his lease is due for renewal.

He said: “We have been in the town centre for 20 years and I’d like to stay but we haven’t heard what the new owners’ plans are yet.

“They need to fill the empty shops but the best way of doing that is to drop the rents. They need to get people who want to stay.

“I’d like to move into a bigger unit, and I am considering what was Shoezone, but I’m also thinking of going to Cwmbran. For now, I’ll be here until at least Christmas.”

Shopper Brenda Powell, 76, a retired Sainsbury’s worker, said the centre used to be “bustling” with life and shops.

She said: “Going back 20-25 years you had loads of shops in there and people would shop there all the time. It was absolutely bustling in there.

“But I think the council has driven people out of the town centre. You have retail parks popping up out of town and people go elsewhere.

“There are other problems too. The rents are obviously too high because none of the businesses stay. They seem to move all the time. One week they’re here and then they’re in another part of town.

“Also, people shop online and the economy at the moment I suppose people just don’t have the money.”

Sisters Cerys and Chantelle Vaughan, 47, and 44, respectively, were visiting the centre from their home up the valley in Ebbw Vale after a medical appointment in Newport but left empty-handed.

Cerys said: “We just had a look around as we don’t come into Newport very often, but we didn’t see anything we wanted.”

Chantelle added: “It needs to have more shops in there. It could do with some cheap shops selling kids clothing.”

Nowadays, big purchases involve clicks, not shopping trips, as Britons are still struggling with cost pressures.

According to a recent study by Virgin Red, 65 per cent of UK adults have stopped shopping for non-essential items, while 15 per cent admitted they have been forced to cut out shopping sprees completely.

More than half (55 per cent) are holding back because of the guilt of splashing out while others are struggling.

And 60 per cent reckon this change in approach isn’t fleeting, as the current economic crisis will have a long-term impact on their shopping habits.

That is why the Daily Express is campaigning to save our high streets – not only shops but cafes, restaurants, and entertainment.

There is hope for struggling shopping centres like Kingsway. According to Newport-based commercial property expert Dan Smith, of M4 Property Consultants, the secret to the centre’s future success could be to fill the units with more varied tenants.

He cited nearby Newport Arcade as an example of a shopping area now thriving with a mix of tenants. Newport Arcade includes a florist, a coffee shop, an art gallery, and a skate store.

Niamh Eadie, who repurposes disused buildings, agreed, saying: “It is imperative that local councils and central government unite in their efforts to revitalise our high streets by encouraging people back to live within our city centres.

“The transformation of disused buildings is essential to achieve this. for this. This will encourage a diverse range of retailers to occupy empty units, catering to the needs and enhancing the lives of the residents.”

Alex Schlagman of the Save the High Street campaign said: “These shopping centres can now turn this challenge into an opportunity for positive change, using vacant space to incubate high street start-ups and independent traders on more flexible contracts and with the support they need to succeed locally.”

A spokesperson for Newport City Council said: “As the freeholder for the Kingsway Centre, Newport City Council has a role in considering potential leaseholders.

“Our priority is to ensure there is confidence in any new investor and that they share our aspirations for the city centre. We now look forward to detailed discussions following the auction.

“The retail market generally is in an incredibly difficult position. We currently provide a range of business rate relief to retailers in the city centre and will work with any new developer to ensure ongoing viability.”

One of the UK’s largest Conservative-run councils has warned it faces “financial meltdown” and has called on ministers to fix the “broken” local government funding system to avoid it and many other authorities plunging into effective bankruptcy.

What was it Simon Jupp said: “If you can’t run a council……..”?

Patrick Butler Social policy editor

Hampshire county council said without a major overhaul of council finances in England – which it admitted was unlikely to come in time to prevent cuts – it would be forced to push ahead with drastic reductions to local services over the next 18 months, and could face insolvency by 2026.

The council has to find £132m by April 2025 to help fill a widening budget gap but has said it cannot rely on operational cuts and council tax rises alone to balance the books without ditching “safe” levels of core service.

A paper to a meeting of the council’s cabinet next week states that “these are not problems we can fix on our own and that the government must intervene if we and the whole of the local government sector are to avoid financial meltdown”.

Hampshire hit the headlines last year after publishing a joint letter with Kent county council to Rishi Sunak warning that failure to properly fund local government in England would see the two councils “sleepwalk into financial disaster”.

The situation has not improved since for either council. Kent’s auditors said last month it may have to issue a section 114 statement of effective bankruptcy, a prospect the council says it is confident it can avoid. The wider picture for local authorities is bleak: Birmingham city council declared itself effectively bankrupt last month and several others have said that is a realistic prospect for them, too.

Havering council in east London, which is run by a coalition of residents’ association independents and Labour, has warned that even pushing through “unpalatable” levels of cuts to services may not be enough to balance its budget, which faces a £23m gap this year, rising to £31m in 2024.

The Havering council leader, Ray Morgon, said in a recent blogpost: “I’m afraid I can’t shy away from the fact that the situation is desperate. We are now at the point where bankruptcy (by the issuing of what is known as a section 114 notice) could happen in the next six to 12 months.”

Hampshire says it will have to drain reserves to meet budget gaps as well as introduce “bare minimum” levels of service to avoid bankruptcy. This would mean focusing solely on services it is legally obliged to provide, such as social care.

At the same time, it would cut or end funding for “discretionary” services, including community transport and museums. Other areas earmarked for cuts include libraries, household waste recycling centres, school crossing patrols and grants to local charities.

The paper to be considered by the council’s cabinet next week says 2025-26 “represents the crunch point for the county council’s budget; either the government steps in with additional funding or legislates to reduce the range of statutory responsibilities that we are required to undertake”.

It says the local government finance system is broken, adding: “Since 2018 the county council has (publicly and consistently) said that without fundamental changes to the way in which local government is funded, it will not be financially sustainable. This position is becoming a reality as we head towards 2025/26.”

The leader of Hampshire county council, Rob Humby, said: “For a long time now, we’ve been very clear about the huge budget pressures facing the county council by April 2025, and, like many local authorities nationally, our budgets are stretched to breaking point.”

He added: “We know that council tax increases alone are not enough to plug the gap, and with no sign of government stepping in to provide a short-term budget lifeline or long-term sustainable funding solution to councils like Hampshire, we must take action now and plan to meet the budget shortfall ourselves.”

The Local Government Association (LGA) estimates councils in England face a deficit of at least £3bn over the next two years, as they juggle rising costs and demand, especially in adult and children’s social care. The LGA chair, Shaun Davies, urged the government to “come up with a long-term plan to manage this crisis”.

A Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities spokesperson said: “The Local Government Finance Settlement for 2023/24 makes available up to £59.7bn for local government in England, an increase in Core Spending Power of up to £5.1 billion or 9.4% in cash terms on 2022/23. For Hampshire County Council, this represents an increase in Core Spending Power of up to £90.2m or 9.4% – making available a total of up to £148.4 million in 2023/24.”

Long term decisions for a brighter (and hotter) future – Owl

– 

That day, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments were among the top 10 risers in the FTSE share index. Persimmon shares rose by 5.3%, Barratt Developments 3.8%, Taylor Wimpey 3.3%, Crest Nicholson 7.4% and Vistry 4.1%. None of these five companies have donated to the Conservatives, but they illustrate the effect on the industry at large.

The rule changes have been postponed, as the House of Lords thwarted ministers’ original plans. The government is still determined to scrap them, despite concerns this would add to the burden of pollution in UK rivers.

These impacts clearly illustrate how closely the fate of housebuilders and the construction sector is tied to government actions. Little wonder that the builders are so keen to wade into the political arena as major donors.

Nutrient neutrality is just one part of a much bigger picture, as the Guardian’s investigation into political donations from the housing industry shows. Housebuilders have benefited to the tune of billions from delays over the past eight years to rules that would have required them to build new homes to a low-carbon standard.

About a fifth of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions come from housing. The vast majority of the UK’s housing stock is old and will require retrofitting to plug leaks and install heat pumps and solar panels. This is a mammoth task that will take at least a decade.

Building new homes to be low-carbon from the outset costs much less, and is a no-brainer in climate terms. It also brings down bills – a report in 2021 found the average household would save at least £200 a year in a new-build that was properly insulated and used low-carbon energy, a sum likely to be much greater today.

Housebuilders have little incentive to take these steps by themselves, because it costs money. But those costs are tiny compared with the cost of retrofitting houses later. Compelling construction companies to equip newbuild houses to be low-carbon would not be difficult, and under proposals by the last Labour government for a zero-carbon standard, maintained under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from 2010 to 2015, all housebuilders would have had to meet such requirements from 2016.

Those requirements were scrapped in 2015, not long after the general election won by David Cameron that brought a strong Tory majority. (Since then, Cameron has made the case for “muscular intervention” by Conservative governments to shift to a low-carbon economy.) Cameron did not respond to a request for comment.

Yet the technology needed to make homes low-carbon is not new. Heat pumps have been available for years, and their rapid take-up in other countries in recent years has spurred a wave of innovation and manufacturing that has made them cheaper. Solar panels started falling rapidly in price more than a decade ago, though they have now increased again slightly owing to component shortages and recent inflation. Building houses with effective insulation requires higher grade materials and better design, but both are available.

The UK needs more houses, and building rates in recent years have fallen woefully short. Housebuilders complain that the government does not help, through its restrictive planning laws – though what the industry tends to gloss over is that many major builders hold large “land banks” with space for scores of thousands of unbuilt homes, already with planning permission. They can often make a notional financial return simply from owning this land, as land values increase.

According to figures compiled for the Guardian from the E3G thinktank and the MCS Charitable Foundation, which certifies elements of green building, the costs of kitting out homes are about £8,530, of which a 4kWhp solar PV system cost £1,100 and £,1680 for a battery, plus £5,750 for an air-source heat pump.

These costs have risen in the last two years, owing to inflation and supply chain problems. Before the cost of living crisis, the Climate Change Committee estimated that the cost of meeting the scrapped zero-carbon homes standard would have been about £5,200 per house.

The average cost for a retrofit, according to MCS data in 2023, is almost £33,000 for an air-source heat pump and solar PV system, of which £13,000 is for the heat pump, £9,377 for solar panels, and £9,800 for an average-sized battery.

It makes little sense for homeowners, taxpayers or the climate when developers are allowed to shrug off these costs in the interests of saving money for themselves. Lord Deben, until recently chair of the climate change committee, has warned repeatedly of the impact. He takes a scathing view of the sector: in the nutrient neutrality debate, he accused the government of “subsidising the housebuilders”.

He told the Lords: “The number of houses built has nothing to do with this at all – it is about whether the housebuilders think that that number will keep the price up at the level at which they have it. The housebuilders are not building the houses they have already got planning permission for in areas which are not in any way affected by this. The number of houses in this country is not reaching 300,000 because the housebuilders have bought the land at a price which means that they can sell only at a level which is too elevated for the present time, with mortgages as they are. Let us not kid ourselves that, by voting against this, we will in some way reduce the number of houses, because we will not.”

He added that the amendments from the government were there to “subsidise the housebuilders” as they would have meant that the taxpayer would pick up the bill for nutrient mitigation schemes, rather than the polluters.

Grant Shapps, when energy secretary, was asked why the government refused to require developers to kit out newbuilds with solar panels. His response was that the government wanted to be “technology neutral”, meaning that people might prefer to make their homes low-carbon in another way. Yet it is difficult to see what alternative would improve on solar panels, a widely available clean technology that can be fitted more easily when a house is being built and planned than added afterwards, not least as houses can then be built to face the right direction for the panels to catch most sunshine.

In making his U-turns on net zero last month, Rishi Sunak vowed to “make big decisions in the long-term interests of our country”, and ensure that the costs of net zero did not fall on consumers. But as the Guardian’s research shows, the government has been prepared to let tens of billions of pounds of cost fall on newbuild homeowners, when the alternative would mean inconveniencing Tory donors.

At least one-tenth of the money donated to the Conservative party and its MPs since 2010 has come from property developers, real estate tycoons and others connected to the construction industry, an exclusive Guardian analysis reveals.

Fiona Harvey www.theguardian.com 

Meanwhile, housebuilders and property developers have benefited by billions of pounds from delays to low-carbon building regulations in the past eight years. The delays mean homeowners and taxpayers will have to pay tens of billions of pounds to bring newly built homes up to low-carbon standards, and have resulted in years of unnecessarily high greenhouse gas emissions, and higher energy bills for residents.

The government is to implement fresh delays to green regulations, after the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced a rollback of net zero policies last month that will benefit housebuilders still further.

The Guardian analysis found housebuilders, developers, and real estate tycoons have donated almost £40m to the Tories since 2010, when the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition took office.

The construction sector – including some companies that are not Tory party donors – has saved at least £15bn since 2015 by building homes to old, high-carbon standards, without solar panels and batteries, heat pumps and effective insulation.

The cost of remedying these omissions in order to reach the UK’s target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, if left to individual homeowners or taxpayers, would reach £45bn, according to the analysis.

Since 2015, the Conservative government has made several decisions that have saved money for housebuilders while running counter to the UK’s green targets. These decisions include:

• Refusing to require new homes to be built with heat pumps instead of gas boilers, resulting in most new homes being connected to the gas grid.
• Refusing to mandate that new homes are built with solar panels.
• Delaying tougher building regulations on insulation.
• Delaying a “future homes standard” to ensure new homes are net zero carbon.
• Continuing to back hydrogen for home heating, after experts warned it would be expensive and impractical.
• Attempting to scrap nutrient regulations that would force housebuilders to clean up watercourses.

Juliet Phillips, a senior policy adviser at the E3G climate thinktank, said: “Several key environmental regulations have been thrown into the regulatory bonfire. This includes delays to new laws that would have required housing developers to boost biodiversity and improve local wildlife habitats. There are concerns that even more regulations could get caught in the crossfire of the highly politicised net zero culture war. Among these is the requirement for new homes to be highly efficient and installed with a heat pump from 2025.”

She said delays had already added to costs for householders and taxpayers. “Delays to the future homes standard hit homeowners twice: first, through higher energy bills associated with inefficient buildings; and second, through costly retrofits needed to make homes net zero ready. Industry, investors and consumers urgently require reassurance that the standard will be implemented as planned from 2025,” she said.

“It’s a false economy to think that delaying the introduction of the standard will benefit the UK. Instead, long-term policy certainty will spur investment in green skills and supply chains. We urge the government to move ahead with the planned consultation without further delay.”

Building a new home to low-carbon standards is cheaper than retrofitting it. Green experts approached by the Guardian estimated the building cost for installing items such as air source heat pumps, solar panels and batteries, and insulation, would be about £8,500. However, for a householder to retrofit a dwelling to the same standards would cost about £33,000.

The cost difference is because developers can integrate the technologies into the building design and fabric during its construction, while also benefiting from large economies of scale. It is also easier to install some equipment, such as ground source heat pumps which require extensive trenches, or insulation that is fitted into walls, from the outset than to do so later.

David Cowdrey, the director of external affairs at the MCS Charitable Foundation, which works to promote renewable energy, said: “Contrary to some MPs’ claims, research shows that people overwhelmingly want renewables like solar panels, heat pumps and battery storage to make sure their homes are affordable to keep warm and comfortable. It should be a no-brainer to put renewable energy in all homes, when doing so is cheap and efficient, and does not rely on expensive gas for heating.”

In 2015, soon after the Conservatives won the general election, the government scrapped regulations that would have forced the construction sector to ensure all new homes were low carbon. Since then, about 1.5m new homes have been built, the vast majority of which would not meet such standards.

A Guardian analysis of Electoral Commission data found the Conservative party had received £27.1m in donations from real estate, construction and development companies since 2010.

The party received a further £11.2m from individuals who sit on the boards of property companies or have large real estate interests. Separately, Tory MPs received more than £850,000 in gifts and donations from companies and individuals connected to the construction industry in the same period.

The £39m in combined party and MP donations to the Conservatives from property interests is 13 times the £2.7m donated to the Labour party or its MPs in the same period: £2.3m from property companies, £401,000 from individuals and £271,000 to its MPs.

This £39m includes more than £2m in the past 18 months: the party received £1.9m in donations from property companies and £567,000 from individuals with links to them.

Countywide Developments – of which the property developer Tony Gallagher is director – has given £4.3m to the Conservative party since 2010, including £385,000 since January 2022.

John Bloor has donated £3.1m to the party since 2010 through his various companies.

Other companies that have donated large amounts include Bridgemere UK, which provides development finance for UK housebuilders and developers, and has donated £1.6m to the Conservatives since 2019. Thakeham Homes has donated £966,440 since 2017, £250,000 of it in 2022.

Individuals who have donated large amounts include the real estate investor Roger Orf (£628,000 since 2013), the luxury developer Nicholas Candy (£271,000 since 2020), and the real estate magnate Laurence S Geller (£444,000 since 2018).

A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The prime minister has set out a practical route to achieving net zero that does not clobber households with higher rents and bills. We are still committed to meeting our net zero target by 2050.”

A government spokesperson said: “The future homes standard will deliver homes that are net zero ready. In 2021 we introduced an improvement in energy efficiency standards, meaning new homes being built now already produce significantly lower carbon emissions and have excellent levels of insulation. We are also supporting homeowners to get ready for net zero through a number of schemes, including the new Great British insulation scheme.”

A spokesperson from Bloor Homes said neither John Bloor, nor any representatives of the company, had held meetings with ministers or civil servants in the last three years, and the company had not asked the government to delay green regulations on new homes. They said: “Donations to the Conservative party ceased in March 2021. However, charitable donations in the last two years amounted to £14.49m. In addition, we have established a £50m non-recourse facility to the Crick Institute. All homes built conform to the building regulations applicable at the time they are built, and always have done.”

Countywide, through Gallagher Developments, did not respond to a request for comment.

A spokesperson for Bridgemere said: “Bridgemere has made several donations to the Conservative party but none over the last 18 months as it has become increasingly frustrated by the government’s total lack of progress on urgently required planning reforms. This lack of reform which ensures that fewer and fewer new homes are built every year is the major contributory factor to the current housing crisis. Any engagement with ministers [or] officials has been on this issue alone.”

The spokesperson added that Bridgemere’s Castle Green Homes had built about 500 new homes across north-west England and north Wales “to the latest environmental and energy efficiency standards. Castle Green is committed to further reducing its carbon footprint as rapidly as possible through the deployment of the latest technologies including air source heat pumps, solar panels, the extensive use of sustainable timber-framed construction and many other initiatives. ”

A spokesperson for Thakeham said: “Thakeham consistently pushes for higher environmental and sustainability standards in housebuilding and never for a reduction or delay in meeting our environmental obligations as we build the homes and communities needed. We are currently delivering net zero carbon affordable homes for a district council, and are starting a fully net zero carbon scheme this year. These schemes include solar panels, air source heat pumps, wastewater heat recovery, and are of timber-frame construction. Our net zero ambitions will see all Thakeham homes we build by 2025 be net zero in lifetime use, and carbon neutral in construction, having already been verified by Planet Mark in 2023 as a carbon-neutral business.”

Orf and Geller did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Candy said he concentrated on refurbishing prime properties, rather than standard new-build homes.

Huge fireball as lightning causes ‘explosion’ after hitting biogas tank

A huge fireball was seen for miles as lightning caused an ‘explosion’ after hitting a biogas tank on Monday evening (October 2).

James Holt www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk 

Videos and pictures have shown how the sky was lit up moments after a thunderstorm passed overhead in Oxfordshire before the mystery bang was reported on social media by members of the public.

Severn Trent Green Power, a waste management company, confirmed the fire had occurred at its Cassington AD facility, near Yarnton, in a statement posted on Facebook on Monday evening. It confirmed biogas within the tank went up in flames.

A spokesperson for the company said: “Severn Trent Green Power can confirm that at around 19:20 this evening, a digester tank at its Cassington AD facility near Yarnton, Oxfordshire, was struck by lightning resulting in the biogas within that tank igniting. We are working with the emergency services to secure the site and will provide further comments in due course.”

The company said it was working with emergency services to secure the site. A company representative told the PA news agency that no-one was injured in the incident.

Videos began circulating on social media on Monday (October 2) showing a large fireball and the sky in the area pulsing an orange colour.

The person who captured footage, shared to X, can be overheard saying: “That’s massive.” He later posted: “I don’t know but it was massive. There were lots of fire brigade /police cars minutes later going through A40.”

Jack Frowde, 34, from Oxford, who works at Oxford University, said: “I was sitting in my kitchen when the whole room lit up with a brilliant white light, then followed by a huge crack which sounded like really heavy thunder.

“I looked out of the kitchen window and it was as if the sky was pulsating orange. I ran to the back to capture the orange glow as it faded after about 20 seconds.”

Oxfordshire Fire and Rescue Service and Thames Valley Police have been contacted for comment.

From a correspondent:

Very helpful once they have announced that they expect the public to pay for the infrastructure backlog. An invitation to a meeting for which registrations are now closed.

Email – note the date

From: Pennon Group Plc <donotreply@linkshareholderinformation.co.uk>

Sent: Tuesday, 3 October 2023, 06:36:07 BST

Subject: Pennon Group Plc: Our Plan for Change 2025-30. We’re Doing This.

Dear WaterShare+ customer,

Our Plan for Change 2025-30.  We’re Doing This.

Introducing our business plan for the next five years.

We place huge value on every one of our WaterShare+ customers.  Not only do you have a stake in the business as shareholders, but an important and growing say in how we run your water company. 

Your feedback matters and has been instrumental in shaping the plan that we have submitted to Ofwat today.  At its heart is a commitment to tackle the biggest challenges in the region head on, and to solving the things that matter most to customers.

It’s a plan that goes further in tackling the biggest challenges in our region, as we invest to protect water quality and resilience, tackle storm overflows at our beaches, eradicate pollutions and protect the environment from climate change. With a laser like focus on efficiency, it’s also a plan that supports customer affordability.

We will invest around £2.8billion over the period, the largest investment in decades, and create up to 2000 jobs.

You will find a short summary of what will be achieved in each area attached.  You can also find out more detail in our Customer Summary or take the time to read the full business plan here

.

Our Plan will now be reviewed by customers, stakeholders and our regulators. We are keen to hear more from you on our Plan – so you can have your say by attending one of our Watershare+ public meetings or come and join us for our Your Water, Your Say session on 6 November, where we will talk about our plans and listen to what customers think.

We’re Doing This recognises that change is needed, now.  This plan is more than a commitment, it is what we are doing.  So, thank you for being part of our business. And thank you for supporting your water company.

Susan Davy

Group Chief Executive Officer

Pennon Group

Most Devon Conservative MPs are expected to be safe in their seats in the forthcoming general election, according to a top pollster.

But read Owl on “Where will Claire Wright’s vote land?” , Remember there are 26,000 votes in play in our two constituencies.

Guy Henderson www.exmouthjournal.co.uk

Dr Frank Luntz, an American political analyst, said on the first day of the Conservative Party conference that any MP with less than an 8,000 majority should be concerned about being re-elected.

Simon Jupp was the only Devon Tory to get fewer than a 12,000 majority in 2019’s general election, receiving 6,708 votes more than an independent candidate in East Devon.

The Conservatives held onto 10 seats, with Labour’s Luke Pollard winning in Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport and Sir Ben Bradshaw retaining the Labour seat he has held since 1997 in Exeter.

Liberal Democrat Richard Foord reduced the Tory stronghold to nine seats by winning a by-election in Tiverton and Honiton last year after the resignation of shamed Tory MP Neil Parish, who stepped down after admitting he watched pornography in the House of Commons.

Mr Foord and Simon Jupp will battle for the new Honiton and Sidmouth seat at the next election.

Labour has effectively conceded that it can’t win much in Devon, however well it is doing in the national polls.

According to a leaked list, it will not prioritise its resouces trying to win in Torbay, the newly configured constituencies of Honiton and Sidmouth, Tiverton and Minehead, Torridge and Tavistock, or North Devon.

And despite the Liberal Democrats believing they can take seats from the Tories, Conservative dominance in the county is likely to remain, according to Dr Luntz.

The pollster, whose has David Cameron and Barack Obama among his fans, has earlier told Tory backbenchers that anyone with a margin of less than 15,000 should prepare to lose their seats.

He now admits this figure was “provocative”.

Dr Luntz told Times Radio that some Tory MPs would be shocked on election day.

“Some of these MPs have already understood the frustration with the public, understood the tension between the economy and the environment, which is the conversation I kept hearing,” he said.

“[They] expressed their frustration about immigration, crime and the roads, don’t see that Labour’s going to bring about the change they want and they’re already winning back disaffected Tories.”

The next general election has to take place by 28 January 2025.

While no official announcement has been made, betting is increased on the chances of a May poll.

The Devon MPs in the 2019 general election won with these majorities:

• South West Devon, Gary Streeter (Con), majority 21,430
• Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish (Con), 24,239
• Torridge and West Devon, Geoffrey Cox (Con), 24,992
• Torbay, Kevin Foster (Con), 17,749
• Newton Abbot, Anne Marie Morris (Con), 17,501
• Plymouth Moor View, Johnny Mercer (Con) 12,897
• East Devon, Simon Jupp (Con), 6,708
• Totnes, Anthony Mangnall (Con), 12,724,
• North Devon, Selaine Saxby (Con), 14,813
• Central Devon, Mel Stride (Con), 17,721

• T1: Oak – raise crown over the gardens up to a height of 5m from ground level. Remove limb growing on eastern side. Reduce crown by up to 2m to leave a tree with a finished height of 8m and a 3m gap from the house. Restricting cut size to 75mm diameter. 31 Ivydale Exmouth EX8 4TARef. No: 23/2033/TRE | Validated: Fri 22 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change existing conservatory to a garden room The Willows Woodbury Salterton EX5 1PXRef. No: 23/2022/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey rear sunroom extension. 4 Hides Road Sidmouth Devon EX10 9NERef. No: 23/2018/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed lawful development for single storey rear extension.12 Comilla Close Exmouth EX8 5PLRef. No: 23/2021/CPL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of condition no. 2 22/2367/FUL (Creation of charging zone to include erection of EV chargers, erection of canopy, substation enclosure, associated works and demolition of jet wash bay). To allow for the improvement in the design and distribution of the cabling route as shown on submitted plans. 223 Exeter Road Exmouth EX8 3DZRef. No: 23/2019/VAR | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• G1 – x3 Beech, x2 Ash – to reduce the crown height by removing branch lengths of approximately 4m to past historic pruning points making natural target pruning cuts of up to 75mm in diameter and pruning the crown spread both garden side and roadside by approximately 1m making natural target pruning cuts of up to 25-50mm in diameter and removing all Ivy from the trunks of these trees. T1 – Oak tree – to dismantle this tree in a controlled manner cutting as close to ground level as possible. 37 Simcoe Way Dunkeswell Devon EX14 4URRef. No: 23/2016/TRE | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1: Ash – prune and reduce the crown height and spread of 1 x co-dominant stemmed, pruning to historic pruning points and making cuts of up to 75mm in diameter and removing branch lengths of up to 2m. 22 Old Manor Gardens Colyford Devon EX24 6TZRef. No: 23/2003/TCA | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• New detached double garage and external alterations to existing dwelling (resubmission of previous application 22/0967/FUL) 10 Hulham Vale Exmouth EX8 4QBRef. No: 23/2015/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1: Spruce – fell. T2: Cypress – fell. Taylors Farm Road From Lakes Bridge To North End Brampford Speke Devon EX5 5HNRef. No: 23/2012/TCA | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed Retention of Stable Block Building, Field Shelter and Fencing. Land South West Of Heathayne Cross Colyton EX24 6RSRef. No: 23/2004/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1: Birch – crown reduce tree by lowering canopy to reduce height by 3m and spread by 3m Reduce all aspect of crown to suitable growth points, making natural target pruning cuts, making no cuts in excess of approximately 200 mm in diameter. Removing branch lengths no more than 3m long reducing the end weight and lever arm of branches. Branches at risk of contact with roof and guttering of 101 Mill St will be reduced. Maximum diameter cut (MDC) 150mm. Shape aspects to leave a well-balanced tree. Proposed works will be carried out by: Connor Down Tree Surgery, Ottery St Mary, EX11 1AR 01404 815832 email info@treeservicesottery.co.uk Reason for works: Works required in order to maintain the health, safety and structural integrity of the tree and safety of the properties, and persons. T1 Is a very large tree which has become particularly large for area. (Please see images ‘Tree Photos A to J.jpg’). Works required to maintain the tree to mitigate future issues before they arise. Delaying the works will ultimately lead to more invasive works which will be more detrimental to the health of the tree. The Birch has become particularly large for area and is over dominant over properties and gardens 97-99 Mill St to the North and East, and 101 Mill St. to the West and South. The tree blocks out light to 97- 99 Mill St, and 101 Mill St. Large branches are now overhanging garden, land and driveway and are in very close proximity to roof of 101 Mill St. Neighbors (101 Mill St), tena… 99 Mill Street Ottery St Mary EX11 1AJRef. No: 23/2013/TRE | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Roofing over livestock yard area. East Budleigh Road, Pulhayes Farm Access To Bankly East Budleigh Budleigh Salterton Devon EX9 7BARef. No: 23/2005/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Demolition of existing buildings and construction of 1 no. dwellinghouse (alternative to conversion of a redundant building to form 1 no. residential dwelling and associated works approval reference 21/3211/FUL). Land And Building South East Of Courshay Springs HawkchurchRef. No: 23/1997/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T9, Turkey Oak: reduce crown by 3-4m. T10, Turkey Oak : selected branch removal (remove lowest southern primary limb, leaving 1m stub (coronet cut) to minimise decay in the main stem). Dismantle the semi-mature tree that the limb is fused to as it has poor form and a high likely hood of failure in the future – leaving a 3m habitat pole. T11, Turkey Oak: reduce crown by 2m (reduce the remaining canopy of the large stem to balance the crown.); selected branch removal (fell the fractured stem into the wood.) Solar Farm North Of Bystock Stables Bystock Exmouth Devon EX8 5EDRef. No: 23/1998/TRE | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Internal remodelling to include 3no. new rooflights, changes to fenestration, new double doors & balcony to central dormer (to match existing dormers), replacement glass balustrade to balconies. New pitched roof to existing garage, cladding to garage gables & adjacent to new front entrance doorset. Woodlands Churchill Devon EX13 7LZRef. No: 23/1989/FUL | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of Lawful Development for the replacement of a conservatory with a traditional built rear extension2 Aspen Close Honiton Devon EX14 2YQRef. No: 23/1991/CPL | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Variation of Condition 2 (Approved Plans) of Application 21/3275/FUL (first floor extension to an existing dwelling as well as altering the external appearance to form a modern dwelling and a new detached single storey garage of matching materials, and conversion of existing garage and a rear extension with alteration to fenestration), to amend fenestration details 5 Fairfield Road Exmouth Devon EX8 2BLRef. No: 23/1994/VAR | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey side and rear extension 34 Shortwood Close Budleigh Salterton Devon EX9 6QWRef. No: 23/1990/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed new dwelling and relocated site access with associated landscaping and parking Land Adjacent To Park House PlymtreeRef. No: 23/1978/FUL | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replacement of a defective fish shed. Fishmongers The Esplanade SidmouthRef. No: 23/1982/FUL | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed demolition of the existing dwelling and construction of a single storey replacement dwelling and parking. Shiles Farm Bungalow Axminster EX13 5SERef. No: 23/1980/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replacment dwelling, including the demolition of the exisitng dwelling and multiple outbuildings located within the grounds. The Croft Bendarroch Road West Hill Devon EX11 1UWRef. No: 23/1973/FUL | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• 5 no. PVCu replacement windows to first floor flat Flat 1 4 Harbour Road Seaton Devon EX12 2LSRef. No: 23/1975/FUL | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of a secure vehicle store. Unit G Reme Drive Heathpark Industrial Estate Honiton EX14 1SERef. No: 23/1940/FUL | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Single-storey side extension. 4 Copp Hill Lane Budleigh Salterton EX9 6DTRef. No: 23/1889/FUL | Validated: Wed 20 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed single storey side extension. Umborne Institute Hall Shute Devon EX13 7QLRef. No: 23/1790/FUL | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of one dwelling house (Use Class C3). Land Lying West Of Abbeyfield Cottage Dunkeswell Honiton EX14 4SDRef. No: 23/1712/CPE | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Erection of one dwelling house (use class C3). Dwelling West Of Abbeywood Cottage DunkeswellRef. No: 23/1711/CPE | Validated: Thu 21 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed attached two storey annexe Hawthorns Rockbeare EX5 2EGRef. No: 23/1584/FUL | Validated: Tue 19 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace 1no bay and 2no. windows on ground floor and 1no. bay and 3no. windows on first floor west elevation and replace roof on west elevation The Manor St Andrews Road Exmouth EX8 1APRef. No: 23/0641/LBC | Validated: Mon 18 Sep 2023 | Status: Awaiting decision

(He’s changed his phone a number of times in the past three years without backing them up, as you do – Owl)

Rishi Sunak has told the Covid-19 inquiry that he is unable to provide WhatsApp messages from his time as Chancellor during the pandemic because he failed to back them up, it has been reported.

Luke O’Reilly www.independent.co.uk

The prime minister wrote in his witness statement that he does “not have access” to the messages because he changed his phone several times, The Guardian claimed.

It comes as the second stage of the inquiry, led by Baroness Heather Hallett, begins on Tuesday and is set to examine key decision-making in Westminster between January 2020 and February 2022, when the final Covid restrictions in England were lifted.

Ministers and other government officials are expected to give evidence during the second module of the inquiry, titled “core UK decision-making and political governance”.

Previously, there was a delay in former prime minister Boris Johnson handing over WhatsApp messages from his time leading the country during the pandemic after he reportedly forgot the passcode to his old mobile phone, before they were recovered by technical experts.

According to The Guardian, Mr Sunak’s statement to the inquiry says: “Having changed my phone a number of times over the last three years, I do not have access to the WhatsApp messages that I sent or received during the relevant time, and neither were the messages backed up.

“My expectation would be that if the officials on those groups had considered that any information being communicated by WhatsApp message needed to be preserved to form part of the official HMT record, then those officials would have taken steps to ensure that happened.”

Earlier this year, the Cabinet Office tried to seek an exemption from providing information and messages it considered irrelevant to the inquiry’s work but it was dismissed by Baroness Hallett.

In response, the Government launched a legal challenge but it was struck down by the High Court in July, which confirmed the documents should be provided.

The inquiry is believed to now be in possession of unredacted WhatsApp messages between Mr Johnson and 40 colleagues, including former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings, cabinet secretary Simon Case and former chancellor Mr Sunak.

In response to The Guardian report, Downing Street said it will not be commenting on “leaks” and was “concerned selective sections of evidence” had been “handed to the media”.

“The Government established the Covid Inquiry to transparently establish the facts and we have submitted more than 55,000 documents in support of their work,” a Government spokesperson said.

“To ensure the integrity of the inquiry is not undermined it is vital that any evidence submitted is heard in context and in full and so we will not be commenting on leaks.

“We are concerned that selective sections of evidence appear to have been handed to the media and all possible steps should be taken to guard against further leaks.”

In July, Mr Johnson’s spokesperson said his messages had been retrieved and handed over to the inquiry.

However, The Guardian reported that Mr Johnson has told the inquiry in his witness statement that he is unable to access messages during the first wave of the pandemic between 31 January and 7 June 2020.

According to the paper, his statement says: “With the assistance of a technical team, we have been able to retrieve messages from the old phone.

“There is a period for which messages were not retrievable (from 31 January to 7 June 2020 inclusive). The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this.”

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Mr Sunak failing to hand over his WhatsApp messages was “a disgrace”.

“It is a disgrace to hear that yet another Conservative has failed to send over their messages to this inquiry,” she said.

“This is straight from the Boris Johnson playbook.

“Rishi Sunak’s promise to govern with integrity has been left in tatters. The public deserve the whole truth instead of yet more Conservative cover-ups.”

Political decision making around lockdowns, travel restrictions and social distancing during the Covid pandemic are set be put under the microscope as the next phase of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry begins.

Ella Pickover www.independent.co.uk

The Government’s work during the crisis will be scrutinised over the coming weeks as the inquiry examines key decision-making in Westminster between January 2020 and February 2022, when the final Covid restrictions in England were lifted.

The inquiry, led by Baroness Heather Hallett, will also examine the decisions behind regional restrictions, also known as the “tier system; work from home orders; mask wearing advice and border controls”.

It will scrutinise modelling data by scientists, which gave estimates on transmission of the virus and death rates.

Ministers and other government officials are expected to give evidence during the second module of the inquiry, titled “core UK decision-making and political governance”.

Other witnesses will include expert advisers, including members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), civil servants and health officials from the NHS, the Department of Health and Social Care and the now defunct Public Health England.

The inquiry has said it will “pay particular scrutiny” to the decisions taken by the then prime minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet.

A key piece of evidence is likely to include the WhatsApp messages of Mr Johnson.

The device he used during crucial periods of the Covid pandemic should contain messages relating to the ordering of three lockdowns in 2020.

The inquiry will also hold specific hearings on “the strategic and overarching issues” in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Public hearings for the second module of the inquiry will begin at Dorland House in London on Tuesday.

Opening statements will be read out on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday afternoon, it is expected that the inquiry will hear from Joanna Goodman of the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, Dr Alan Wightman of the Scottish Covid Bereaved and Anna-Louise Marsh-Rees of the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice Cymru.

Catriona Myles of the Northern Ireland Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, Professor James Nazroo, Professor Philip Banfield of the British Medical Association and Caroline Abrahams of Age UK will give evidence on Thursday.

On Friday, the inquiry will hear from Professor David Taylor-Robinson, former children’s commissioner Anne Longfield, Kate Bell of the Trades Union Congress, Ade Adeyemi of the Federation of Ethnic Minority Healthcare Organisations, Dr Claire Wenham and Rebecca Goshawk of Solace Women’s Aid.

Public hearings will take place across 35 days between 3 October and 14 December.

Could the Tory party implode again? Election date may not now be something Rishi Sunak can control.  – Owl

Sixty Conservative MPs have joined Liz Truss’s Growth Group, imperilling the government’s majority in parliament, as Rishi Sunak was warned by former cabinet ministers “we cannot accept the status quo”.

Aubrey Allegretti www.theguardian.com 

At a packed fringe meeting during the Conservative party conference, Truss and her supporters held a rally where they pushed for the chancellor to cut corporation tax, build 500,000 new homes and resume fracking to cut energy bills.

Truss made her only public appearance during the gathering of activists in Manchester to suggest the Conservatives were no longer the party of business. She argued the state had become too big, with taxes and spending unsustainably high.

‘Lower the better’: Liz Truss calls for cut in corporation tax – video

Despite resigning from office nearly a year ago after her disastrous mini-budget, Truss showed no signs of contrition, saying Sunak should be willing to take tough decisions to help grow the economy even if they were unpopular.

Another former disaffected cabinet minister, Ranil Jayawardena, said the Conservative Growth Group of Truss’s allies had grown in size to include 60 MPs – the same size as the government’s majority in the Commons.

Jayawardena called for stamp duty to be scrapped on people’s principal homes, while Jacob Rees-Mogg also argued that what he called the “pernicious” inheritance tax should be scrapped.

The former home secretary Priti Patel said: “We cannot be timid any more, we cannot be risk averse and we cannot accept the status quo.”

It piles pressure on Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, before the king’s speech and autumn statement in November. Hunt acknowledged in his conference speech that “the level of tax is too high”, though added he was focused on tackling the “long-term” challenge of inflation first.

Despite more than 30 Tory MPs last week signing a pledge to vote against any moves to raise the tax burden, Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank said the chance for tax cuts was “very remote”.

“I don’t think there is space for tax cuts, unless we can think of some pretty radical ways,” Johnson told the Guardian at another conference fringe event in Manchester.

“It’s not just the immediate pressures that we’re seeing in public finances, but we know that we’re going to be needing to spend more on health and pensions, social care and everything going forward as a result of demographic change. So I think the chances of tax cuts are very remote.”

Jake Berry, the Conservative party chairman during Liz Truss’s premiership and one of those who signed the pledge to vote against further tax rises, said he was unafraid of standing up to Rishi Sunak’s administration.

“I think it’s pretty unlikely that the chief whip will kick people out of the Conservative party if they stand by their pledge, not least because there’s 33 who’ve signed already with more to come and that’s more than half of the government’s majority,” Berry told a rally of the New Conservatives group.

“You don’t have to have signed the tax pledge to be able to add up.”

However, new analysis compiled by Labour and shared with the Guardian showed that plans to scrap inheritance tax would benefit wealthy parts of the country.

Residents of two areas in west London – Kensington and Chelsea, and Hammersmith – were found to be liable for £201m in 2019-20 due to inheritance tax compared with just £61m in north-east England.

The next place to benefit most was Surrey West, where inheritance tax in the same year raised £157m. The area overlaps with Hunt’s own constituency of south-west Surrey.

Labour argued that with only 4% of people liable to pay inheritance tax, there were stark regional divides between who would benefit. London and south-east England account for more than 50% of the estimated inheritance tax take, compared with only 8% in the north-east and north-west, 5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, and 10% in the Midlands.

Tactical voting is increasingly being adopted by supporters of minority parties as the only way to make their vote count in electoral outcomes under our “first past the post” system.

Locally, this has become apparent over the past three local district council election cycles.

Even if it is more by  accident than design, the resulting East Devon District coalition council has a membership about as representative of the electorate as might be achieved by a PR voting system.

In by-elections it is also becoming apparent just how sophisticated the electorate can be in working out which candidate is most likely to unseat an undesirable incumbent.

Our difficulty in East Devon is that the two constituencies covering our area have both been reorganised to a significant degree and we don’t have quite such an intuitive feel as to how the relative political parties rank.

In the last couple of parliamentary elections Claire Wright became a serious contender for what, historically, was the “safe as houses” Tory stronghold of East Devon commanding 26,00 votes (40% ) in 2019 and reducing Jupp’s legacy to a marginal 6,700 votes. 

Claire’s previous supporters almost certainly now hold the key to who wins in both constituencies.

Claire has already formally endorsed Richard Foord, Lib Dem, for Honiton and Sidmouth.

It remains to be seen whether any contender party for Exmouth and Exeter East selects somebody she can also endorse.

Owl’s view is that forecasting the result for these two constituencies can’t easily be read from national opinion polling.

Here is a summary of the constituency carve-up. 

New Exmouth and Exeter East Constituency comprises: 72.6% of Devon East ; 12.1% of Exeter and 2.3% of Devon Central
New Honiton and Sidmouth  Constituency comprises: 62.0% of Tiverton and Honiton and  26.5% of Devon East

Now for a look at the bigger picture.

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

11 September 2023 www.electoralcalculus.co.uk 

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a poll for the Independent to see how much tactical voting there might be at the next general election and who would benefit from it.

We asked 2,881 people about how they would tactically vote in the next general election. Our main findings are:

• Supporters of smaller parties are most inclined to vote tactically
  • Sixty per cent of Green supporters say they are likely to vote tactically
  • Forty-eight per cent of Liberal Democrat supporters say the same
• But only 37pc and 15pc of Labour and Conservative voters respectively would vote tactically
• Tactical votes are mostly shared between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens
• Conservative voters mostly tactically vote for the Lib Dems, but the favour is seldom reciprocated
• At a general election, tactical voting could cost the Conservatives 35 more lost seats – Labour gaining 28 and the Lib Dems 7

Read Archie Mitchell in the Independent on how Tactical voting could spell the Tories’ worst election in 100 years.

Polling Questions

1. First and second preferences

Respondents were initially asked for their first and second preference party in the hypothetical situation that all parties would have an equal chance of winning in their area, to try to measure their true party preference before any tactical considerations.

Party	First Choice	Second Choice	Either
Conservative Party	21%	10%	27%
Labour Party	34%	24%	50%
Liberal Democrats	12%	30%	35%
Reform UK	8%	8%	14%
Green Party	19%	21%	35%
SNP	4%	2%	6%
Plaid Cymru	0%	1%	1%
Other	2%	3%	4%

Table excludes those who refused to express a preference, and those who are unlikely to vote.

The smaller parties have more support under this question than they do with FPTP elections. The Greens have about 20pc support here, compared with about 5pc in voting intention surveys.

Regarding the second preference parties, around 50% of Green supporters have Labour as their second choice and 25% have the Liberal Democrats. This is broadly reciprocated by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters. These findings suggest that tactical voting would likely benefit the Labour Party, Liberal Democrat and Greens far more than it would the Conservatives and Reform UK.

See Appendix 1 below for more details of voters’ first and second choices.

2. Likelihood to vote tactically

Then we asked respondents how likely they would be to vote tactically. The full question was “Suppose your first-choice party is unlikely to win the seat, but your second-choice party could. On a scale of 0-10, how likely are you to switch your vote to your second-choice party?”.

About 35% of people answered 8, 9 or 10, which we took as a reasonable threshold for being quite likely to vote tactically. But supporters of minor parties were more likely to vote tactically.

First choiceParty	Fraction whowould vote tactically
Conservative Party	15%
Labour Party	37%
Liberal Democrats	48%
Reform UK	29%
Green Party	60%
SNP / Plaid Cymru	28%
Other	23%
All voters	35%

Our main finding was that supporters of the smaller parties were the most inclined to vote tactically. Around 60% of people whose first preference party is the Green party have said that they would vote for their second preference party in cases where they didn’t think the Greens would come first or second in their seat. This number is also high for Liberal Democrat supporters, 48% of whom would probably vote tactically.

As for the major two parties, our figures show that 37% and 15% of Labour and Conservative voters respectively would vote tactically.

3. Picking the right winners

For tactical voting to work, voters need a reasonable and consistent idea of which two parties are likely to be competitive in their seat. For example, if voters disagree on who the challenger to the Conservatives is, then tactical voting may not happen or might cancel itself out.

Normally, voters might look at the last election result to give them an idea of which parties are competitive in their seat. But this is complicated by two new factors:

• There has been a massive change in public opinion since December 2019 and Labour have gained over 10pc in the polls. There could be many Conservative seats where the Lib Dems were in second place in 2019, but Labour are likely to be the challenger next time. That creates an alternative benchmark for tactical decisions.
• The seat boundaries have been redrawn by the Boundary Commissions. In many cases, the political composition of someone’s new seat has changed. Fewer than 150 seats are mostly unchanged by the boundary review. This creates voter confusion, since there isn’t a definitive previous election result for most new seats.

To explore this issue we asked people which pair of parties they think are likely to come in first and second place (in either order) in their own seat.

To simplify the results, we only looked at respondents who were both likely to vote and likely to vote tactically, and who had a definite opinion about their own seat.

We checked to see how many people matched or did not match the top two parties coming from four different methods: GE result of old seats; Current prediction of old seats; Implied GE result of new seats; Current prediction of new seats. The answers are shown in the table below.

Method	MatchedTop-Two	UnmatchedTop-Two
GE result of old seat	49%	51%
Prediction for old seat	53%	47%
Implied GE of new seat	49%	51%
Prediction for new seat	50%	50%

Given the sample sizes are relatively small, it is hard to draw definite conclusions, other than to say that about half of tactically-inclined people have a good idea of which are the competitive parties in their own seat.

Electoral Impact

We can work out the likely effect of tactical voting if there were a general election. To do this, we make a few assumptions

• The General election is conducted using the existing seats
• Tactical voters all know which two parties are predicted to be in the top-two in their seat (the competitive parties)
• Supporters of any uncompetitive party will vote tactically with a probability given by the table in section 2 above.
• Tactical voters will switch from uncompetitive party A to competitive party B with the probability given in the Tactical Matrix (Appendix 1) for row A and column B.

With and without tactical voting, the election prediction is given in the next table:

Party	Vote Shares	Pred SeatsNo TV	Pred Seatswith TV	Changedue to TV
CON	28%	159	124	−35
LAB	44%	414	440	26
LIB	11%	26	32	6
Reform	7%	0	0	0
Green	6%	1	1	0
SNP	4%	28	31	3
Plaid	1%	4	4	0

The figures show that tactical voting could change the result in more than thirty seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats being the main beneficiaries. The SNP gains in Scotland are from Green supporters who vote SNP tactically, but more work is needed to confirm that trend.

Quotes

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: “The indication that tactical voting is being used as a tool to punish the Conservatives is the most important takeaway from our poll. More broadly, this poll give us an insight into how people are working within the First Past the Post system to express their dislike for the Tories.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: “Our figures show that the next election is likely to see straightforward anti-Conservative tactical voting, compared with the pro- and anti- Brexit tactical voting that was seen in 2019. Many Conservative seats, particularly in the south of England, are at risk. But the new seat boundaries will add an extra complicating factor for voters who want to vote tactically.”

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 2,881 GB adults online between 15–16 August 2023. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Full Data Tables are available for download as an Excel spreadsheet.

Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.

Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council.

Find Out Now

Find Out Now gathers poll responses from Pick My Postcode, a daily panel from 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, and at scale to deliver reliable results fast.

More than 124 million responses have been received to Find Out Now’s polls since it launched in November 2018. Find Out Now are Market Research Society Company Partners and a member of the British Polling Council.

“What happened to the money we have already given the water companies? Why are we being asked to pay for a second time for a service they didn’t get the first time around? The fact is some of these firms cannot afford to service their debts.” Feargal Sharkey

Tracey Boles, Adam Vaughan www.thetimes.co.uk

Water bills will rise by about £84 a year on average as companies in England and Wales pump a record £96 billion into improving environmental standards and securing supplies, after widespread criticism.

The planned investment, which is nearly double the £51 billion being put into infrastructure in the present five-year regulatory period, will feature in the companies’ latest spending plans, to be published on Monday. They will be submitted to Ofwat, the industry regulator, which has a year to review them before giving its approval and determining the level at which bills will be set.

The investment in infrastructure over five years from 2025 is designed to tackle sewage overflows and reduce leakage as well as avoid water shortages.

The proposed spending means that water and sewerage bills, which average £448 a year at present, are likely to rise from April 2025. In England the expected rise is £7 a month, or £84 a year, according to estimates from Water UK, the industry body.

Ruth Kelly, the chairwoman of Water UK and a former Labour MP, said: “Bill rises are never welcome, but in keeping bills low, the environment and the security of our water supply has been paying the price. Those issues now need to be confronted head on.”

According to Water UK, investors will put up the money and the costs will be paid back in increments each year through bills. The process is designed to keep costs down and protects customers against paying up front for the billions needed to improve the UK’s ageing infrastructure. Under the proposals, the number of households receiving support with bills will more than double, to 3.2 million.

Feargal Sharkey, the former Undertones frontman and a water campaigner, said consumers were being asked to pay again for services that they had already funded. He said: “What happened to the money we have already given the water companies? Why are we being asked to pay for a second time for a service they didn’t get the first time around? The fact is some of these firms cannot afford to service their debts.”

Poor water quality

Number of Times readers who describe the water quality of the river/waterway in their local area as poor

Chart: The Times and The Sunday Times

Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, said: “Major improvements are needed to deliver clean and plentiful water now, and in the future . . . I have been very clear with Ofwat that customers should not pay the price for poor performance and they should use the full powers we have given them on behalf of consumers.”

If the spending plans are approved, they will pave the way for the development of up to ten reservoirs and up to nine desalination plants. New cross-country pipes will carry water from the wetter north to the drier south.

The Times Clean It Up campaign has been calling for tougher regulation of water companies and has urged the government to sufficiently staff and resource its regulators.

David Black, the chief executive of Ofwat, said: “The water industry needs to deliver a step change in investment and performance to clean up our rivers and seas, while also helping to ensure that we can meet the challenge of climate change.

“Company business plans are an important first step in the price review process. Ofwat’s role is to forensically scrutinise their proposals, to ensure any increase in bills is justified, efficient and delivers significant improvements in river and bathing water quality. We will assess how companies are helping customers to afford any bill increase.”

Ofwat added that bills must be “fair” and that customers would pay only for future investment, “not past company mistakes”. The regulator is putting in place an incentive regime which rewards companies for effective delivery, but hits those that fail to step up to the challenge with larger penalties.

Ofwat said: “As we work through the business plans we will continue to monitor companies’ performance, hold them to account for delivering improvements and push them to build meaningful plans to change.”

Water UK said the plans would also help create more than 30,000 new jobs and 4,000 apprenticeships for the sector, supply chain and wider economy.

The Times is demanding faster action to improve the country’s waterways. Find out more about the Clean It Up campaign.

We haven’t always got it right but the cost of inaction is huge

Ruth Kelly is chairwoman of Water UK

The water industry stands at a crossroads (Ruth Kelly writes). On Monday, all water companies in England and Wales will submit their five-year investment plans to the regulator, Ofwat, for consideration. Combined, this amounts to a £96 billion programme of investment in our water infrastructure — the biggest in the sector’s history. This is investment designed to put on a firm footing the security of our water supplies and start making significant inroads into tackling some of the environmental challenges we face. These plans will also create more than 30,000 new jobs, a near 50 per cent increase of the current workforce, and 4,000 apprenticeships for the sector, supply chain and wider economy right across the country.

We know that the industry has not got this right in the past. Over the past 30 years since privatisation, investment has risen by 90 per cent and we now have among the cleanest and safest drinking water in the world, pipes now leak over a third less water than they used to and the proportion of beaches rated excellent has risen sevenfold. But much of our infrastructure dates from the Victorian era and is nearing the end of its useful life. Despite the fact that investment rose significantly, it did not keep pace with the challenges from an ageing infrastructure, population growth and climate change. Nor did it meet public expectations on the environment.

Our population has grown 18 per cent since the 1990s. No reservoir has opened since, and sewage treatment has not expanded fast enough. With less investment than we needed, we have had the benefit of relatively low water bills. They have fallen by nearly 20 per cent in real terms since 2010.

Bill rises are never welcome, but in keeping bills low, the environment and the security of our water supply has been paying the price. Those issues now need to be confronted head on.

Ofwat will be poring over the plans before determining what is allowed, and at what price, before announcing its conclusions in the run-up to Christmas 2024.

People will rightly want to see results from any increase in bills that Ofwat allows. That is what the proposals aim to deliver. If approved, they will allow the development of up to ten new reservoirs and up to nine new desalination plants. New cross-country pipes will carry water from the wetter north to the drier south. And in England, companies aim to triple the current level of investment to reduce storm overflows of sewage into waterways. If approved by Ofwat, the health of England’s rivers will improve enormously, with 90 per cent less phosphorous from water companies by 2027 than in the 1990s, in line with the Environment Act’s ambitious targets for the most damaging pollutants. These are the kinds of new projects that companies want to deliver, the country needs and the public rightly expects.

Importantly, the regulator will ensure bills are no higher than needed to fund each improvement and will only approve them if they agree they are new, necessary and represent value for money. If improvements aren’t delivered, bills will automatically be reduced.

Water companies are determined that nobody is left behind. Firms in England will provide nearly a million more households with help on bills, with packages of support ranging from reduced tariffs to payment breaks.

The need for investment to upgrade and expand our system is true across the UK. Whether the infrastructure is owned by the state, as it is in Scotland or Northern Ireland, or by a regulated company, as in England and Wales, the picture is the same.

As an industry, we have apologised for not acting quickly enough on sewage spills and are planning our largest ever investment to put it right.

Ultimately, it is up to the regulator and our politicians to determine the level of investment they will allow and the extent to which they too are willing to reflect the public’s concerns. We cannot afford to shirk these difficult decisions any longer.

Remember the only town in the South West to receive this government largess is Torbay.

Here is what the Torbay Lib Dem Leader has to say:

Steve Darling, leader of the Liberal Democrats on Torbay Council, said the funding was welcome, but its annual gap in funding was about £96m a year, “so £20m over a decade is just a drop in the ocean”.

He said: “Over many years, Torbay Council have faced hundreds of millions of pounds of cuts – it’s the equivalent of having £96 stolen out of your wallet and expected to be grateful when you’re given £2 back.

“We need much more serious money over many years to actually tackle the challenges that we face rather than effectively the crumbs from the table… this is not good enough.”

www.bbc.co.uk

Cabinet ministers were forced to give speeches in half-empty halls while a major split emerged over tax as the Tory Party conference got off to a shaky start.

Kevin Schofield www.huffingtonpost.co.uk Sunday

Foreign secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Grant Shapps were confronted with rows of empty seats as the annual get-together kicked off in Manchester.

And Rishi Sunak’s attempts to re-launch his stuttering leadership were dealt a blow as levelling up secretary Michael Gove called for taxes to be cut before the next election.

Interviewed by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg this morning, the prime minister was asked: “Have you really got your party under control?”

The Tories are gathering for what could be the last time before the election with Labour still well ahead in the polls.

Sunak is attempting to re-set his leadership nearly a year after he replaced Liz Truss as PM.

Last week he announced he was watering down many of the government’s green policies and has also pledged to end the “war on motorists” he claims is being waged by councils around the country.

But his attempt at a fightback is at risk of being thrown off course by his internal party critics.

A “Great British Growth Rally” at the conference tomorrow will see Truss joined by Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg in demanding tax cuts.

They were joined this morning by Gove, who told Sky News he would “like to see the tax burden reduced by the next election”.

“We should make sure that [workers] are better rewarded for the enterprise, effort and endeavour they put in,” he said.

Asked about Gove’s comments on “Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg” on the BBC, Sunak refused to back his colleague.

He said: “We are all Conservatives, of course I want to cut taxes [but] the best tax cut I can deliver right now for the country is to halve inflation.

“It is inflation that is putting the prices of things up, inflation impacting the cost of living, inflation eating into people’s savings, their bank accounts, their wallets.

“And that’s why the first of my priorities is to bring inflation down – to halve it – and I am pleased we are making progress.”

Meanwhile, Tory activists appeared to vote with their feet by snubbing a succession of cabinet ministers.

Twitter link to video here

Both Cleverly and Shapps – two of the cabinet’s big beasts – were left embarrassed as they gave their big speeches in the sparsely-populated main conference hall.

Both used their addresses to launch outspoken attacks on Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Cleverly said they were “a group of political chancers and visionless ideologues” who did not deserve to win the next election.

Meanwhile, Shapps said Starmer was “a man focused on the short-term and lacking the backbone to make the big changes that Britain needs”.

The defence secretary added: “In Rishi Sunak, we have a leader who has weathered a brutal baptism of fire and is coming through. His mettle has been tested and not found wanting.

“He has stuck to his course, trusting in what he believes to be right for the country. It doesn’t always make him popular in the short term – but that is the price of doing the right thing.”

How much has been milked from water companies since privatisation?

Average household bills have risen 40% above inflation since 1989.

Water firms have also accrued £54bn in debt since privatisation – but paid out dividends to shareholders of £66bn, according to an analysis by The Guardian newspaper last year, with 20% of bills going towards servicing debt or paying out dividends on average. (Sky news July) – Owl

Water companies want bills to increase by £156 a year by 2030 to pay for upgrades and reduce sewage discharges.

By Vishala Sri-Pathma www.bbc.co.uk

The increase would allow infrastructure spending to almost double to £96bn and fund the construction of 10 new reservoirs, the water industry says.

But the proposals come amid public anger at the amount of sewage being discharged into rivers and seas and continued cost of living pressures.

Water industry regulator Ofwat has been asked to approve the plans.

If given the green light, water companies say the “record-breaking investment proposals” will secure the country’s water supply in the long-term.

Industry body Water UK said it is planning the “most ambitious modernisation of sewers since the Victorian era” and by the end of the decade said it could reduce leaks by a quarter compared with 2020.

It also said it would cut sewage spills into waterways by more than 140,000 each year by 2030. Water companies spilled sewage into rivers and seas more than 300,00 times in 2022.

The cost of the upgrades will be spread over decades, but if the regulator approves the plans the average annual bill will go up by £84 in 2025 rising to £156 extra by 2030.

While Environment Secretary Therese Coffey broadly welcomed the investment plans, she said Ofwat should ensure customers do not “pay the price for poor performance”

The regulator, she said, “should use the full powers we have given them on behalf of consumers”.

Ms Coffey added: “Now is the time for water companies to step up and deliver lasting changes for future generations.”

Last week Ofwat ordered water companies to pay back £114m to customers through lower bills after missing key targets.

The regulator said firms were “falling short” on performance measures around leaks, supply and reducing pollution.

The regulator said in its assessment that not one company reached the highest measure of performance.

Dŵr Cymru, Southern, Thames, Anglian, Bristol, South East and Yorkshire Water fell into the lowest category of “lagging” and the remaining 10 were rated “average”. None were considered “leading”.

If water companies fail to meet the targets it sets, Ofwat restricts the cash that they can take from customers.

All but five of the water providers reviewed will have to give money back to customers by reducing their bills in 2024-25, rather than each bill payer getting a lump sum refund.

Almost nine in 10 voters who intend to switch their support from Conservative to Labour candidates in the next general election believe that “green growth” is important for the future of Britain’s economy, according to a poll.

Jillian Ambrose www.theguardian.com 

Carried out by pollsters Opinium, the survey found that 82% of all respondents backed the growth of Britain’s green industry to boost the economy, in the same week that the prime minister announced a series of U-turns on the government’s green commitments in an attempt to create a dividing line with Labour before the election.

The survey of more than 5,000 adults found support for the green economy was even stronger among swing voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 and are now planning to switch to Labour, at 88%.

The survey was carried out between 8 and 20 September, when the prime minister confirmed a major about-turn on the government’s climate commitments. Rishi Sunak said the UK would push back the ban on selling new petrol and diesel cars and the phasing out of gas boilers. He also plans to dilute energy efficiency standards.

Business leaders and green groups criticised the move for undermining Britain’s green economic agenda, while senior members of the Conservative party raised concerns that Sunak’s gamble may cost the Tories voters in the upcoming election.

When asked which of the chancellor’s five “priority sectors” of the economy were most likely to encourage growth overall, twice as many people thought green industries would have the biggest positive impact on overall growth than any other sector, including life sciences, digital tech and advanced manufacturing.

Growing investment in renewable energy was backed by 71% of respondents, according to the poll, which was commissioned by trade association Renewable UK. Only 40% of respondents agreed that the Tory party had even partially delivered on this commitment. Renewable UK is expected to reveal the findings of the poll at an event at the Conservative party conference.

The Conservative MP, Alok Sharma, president of the Cop26 climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021, said: “The prime minister’s recent call for the UK to embrace the incredible opportunities of green industry with even greater enthusiasm is clearly backed by people across the country.

“However, attracting inwards green investment does require further action and I therefore look forward to the government’s promised response in the autumn statement to the US’s Inflation Reduction Act which is hoovering up many billions of pounds of private sector investment and causing some companies to think about prioritising expanding in the US ahead of the UK,” he said.

Sunak’s green U-turn came just weeks after the government’s annual renewable energy auction failed to secure bids from any offshore wind developers. Greenpeace described the outcome as “the biggest disaster for clean energy policy in the last eight years” because it risked jeopardising the UK’s plan to triple its offshore wind power capacity by 2030, and cast doubt on Britain’s climate targets.

Nathan Bennett, a director at Renewable UK, said the polling demonstrates “very clearly that people see the success of green industries as vital to the UK’s economic growth”.

“Although we welcome the prime minister reiterating his support for green industries in his net zero speech, this has to be backed up with tangible measures to make the UK a more attractive market for green investment or we will see factories and jobs which could have been in the UK go overseas,” Bennett said.

“This polling shows not only that there is a wealth of public support for new incentives to secure renewable energy projects and manufacturing, but that people be would disappointed if we fail to secure these investments,” he said.

A herpes virus which can be lethal to Pacific oysters has been confirmed in Devon’s River Exe for the first time.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government confirmed it had defined a “containment area” covering the river’s tidal waters and coastal zone.

Samples were taken from the site after a shellfish farmer reported “unusual mortalities”.

The Fish Health Inspectorate (FHI) said there was no risk to other marine life or humans.

Chris Evans, lead inspector at the FHI told the BBC they took samples from the site in August which tested positive for the oyster herpesvirus-1 microvariant among Pacific oysters.

The “containment area” means these oysters, which are labelled as an “invasive species” by some conservationists, cannot be moved to places where the disease has not been recorded.

“Farmers can still sell Pacific oysters for human consumption as they normally do because the risk of the disease transferring through that route is very minimal,” Mr Evans said.

The virus is spread through the movement of oysters, shipping movements, or even people not cleaning their boots, he said, with no known link to contamination or dredging.

He added: “Oyster herpes virus microvariant is what we call a listed disease.

“So the government wants to place controls and stop the spread of it, because it has the potential to impact upon not only oysters, but also businesses operating in the coastal zone.”

He said outbreaks can lead to “upwards of about 90% mortality”, impacting farmers who “lose a significant amount of stock” and leading to economic damage.

“When I worked on an oyster farm myself it was horrible to see the amount of stock die,” he added.

“There’s no treatment for it.”

Mr Evans said the first known occurrence of the virus was in Kent in 2009.

It then spread along the coastline to areas including Essex and Poole Harbour, and is also present in Jersey.

This was the first time the virus had been recorded in the Exe, although the Teign has been classed as a “containment area” since 2015, he confirmed.

Once an area is designated, it remains for as long as it is listed, and it is a “warm water disease”, Mr Evans said.

His team monitors the coastline to try and keep it free from the virus, working closely with farmers on biosecurity measures, and raising public awareness of containment zones.

Martyn Syvret of Aquafish Solutions, is establishing a pilot oyster farm within the containment zone on the Exe.

He said: “This disease can create large scale mortalities and has an economic impact.

“Being a disease-free area means farms can only buy seed from certain hatcheries, whereas having the virus means they can buy more cheaply from French hatcheries.”

He added: “The French industry is putting a lot of resource into developing new strains of Pacific oysters that are less susceptible to the virus.”

‘Disappointment’

David Jarrad, chief executive of the Shellfish Association of Great Britain, said: “I think it is sad.

“But it’s not surprising as oyster herpes is endemic in other European countries.”

He stressed the virus only affects Pacific oysters, adding: “Any oysters on the market are, of course perfectly safe to eat.

“It hasn’t been found anywhere else over recent years, which we had hoped was a good thing, so this was a disappointment to see that is has now been found in the Exe,” he added.

From our “overlooked” region the nearest this levelling up gets is a solitary mention of Torquay! – Owl

More than 50 “overlooked” UK towns will each be given £20 million over a 10-year period to help regenerate high streets and tackle anti-social behaviour.

Natalie Chalk inews.co.uk 

The Prime Minister said the long-term vision for towns, backed by £1 billion of investment, was about putting “funding in the hands of local people” to improve their communities.

The announcement made on Saturday will see 55 towns, including seven in Scotland and four in Wales, given a £20 million endowment-style fund – each to be spent over the course of a decade.

It is set to be used on local priorities such as reviving high streets, tackling anti-social behaviour, improving transport, boosting visitor numbers and growing the local economy.

The investment in towns such as Grimsby in Lincolnshire, Wrexham in Wales and Dumfries in Scotland comes on the eve of the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.

Prime Minister and Tory leader Rishi Sunak said: “Towns are the place most of us call home and where most of us go to work.

“But politicians have always taken towns for granted and focused on cities.

“The result is the half-empty high streets, rundown shopping centres and anti-social behaviour that undermine many towns’ prosperity and hold back people’s opportunity – and without a new approach, these problems will only get worse.

“That changes today. Our Long-Term Plan for Towns puts funding in the hands of local people themselves to invest in line with their priorities, over the long-term. That is how we level up.”

As part of the investment, the towns will set up a town board, bringing together community leaders, employers, local authorities and the local MP, to help deliver a plan for consultation.

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) said the town boards would be able to use a suite of regeneration powers while deploying the new funding.

Officials suggested more private sector investment could be unlocked by auctioning empty high street shops, reforming licensing rules on shops and restaurants, and supporting more housing in urban centres.

They said research showed communities want to see more green spaces created and market days established to enhance town centres, with policing hotspots implemented to make public spaces safer.

Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove said: “We know that in our towns the values of hard work and solidarity, common sense and common purpose, endeavour and quiet patriotism have endured across generations.

“But for too long, too many of our great British towns have been overlooked and undervalued.

“We are putting this right through our Long-Term Plan for Towns backed by over £1 billion of levelling up funding.

“This will empower communities in every part of the UK to take back control of their future, taking long term decisions in the interests of local people.

“It will mean more jobs, more opportunities and a brighter future for our towns and the people who live and work in them.”

Ministers have promised central government support for the town boards as they formulate their vision.

A Towns Taskforce, sitting in the Department for Levelling Up and reporting directly to the Prime Minister and Mr Gove, will help them develop their plans and advise on how best to take advantage of government policies, unlock private and philanthropic investment and work with communities.

DLUHC said towns had been allocated funding according to the Levelling Up Needs Index, taking into account metrics covering skills, pay, productivity and health, as well as the Index of Multiple Deprivation, to ensure funding goes directly to the towns which will benefit most.

Mr Gove’s department said the Government would work with local councils and the devolved administrations to determine how towns in Scotland and Wales will benefit from funding and powers under the proposals.

Officials said they “look forward” to working with a restored executive, with powersharing currently collapsed in Stormont, to determine the approach for providing support to Northern Ireland’s towns.

The full list of 55 towns benefiting from £20 million of funding:

• Mansfield
• Boston
• Worksop
• Skegness
• Newark-on-Trent
• Chesterfield
• Clifton (Nottingham)
• Spalding
• Kirkby-in-Ashfield
• Clacton-on-Sea
• Great Yarmouth
• Eston
• Jarrow
• Washington
• Blyth (Northumberland)
• Hartlepool
• Spennymoor
• Darwen
• Chadderton
• Heywood
• Ashton-under-Lyne
• Accrington
• Leigh (Wigan)
• Farnworth
• Nelson (Pendle)
• Kirkby
• Burnley
• Hastings
• Bexhill-on-Sea
• Ryde
• Torquay
• Smethwick
• Darlaston
• Bilston (Wolverhampton)
• Dudley
• Grimsby
• Castleford
• Doncaster
• Rotherham
• Barnsley
• Scunthorpe
• Keighley
• Dewsbury
• Scarborough
• Merthyr Tydfil
• Cwmbran
• Wrexham
• Barry (Vale of Glamorgan)
• Greenock
• Irvine
• Kilmarnock
• Coatbridge
• Clydebank
• Dumfries
• Elgin

Additional reporting by Press Association

The Conservatives gather in Manchester this weekend, giving them an opportunity to celebrate 13 years in power. Yet there is a risk the event might take on the air of a wake.

John Curtice www.independent.co.uk

The party finds itself on average 18 points behind Labour in the polls, little better than its position 12 months ago after Liz Truss was displaced as prime minister by Rishi Sunak. Meanwhile, YouGov’s data suggests that Mr Sunak’s initial personal popularity has largely disappeared, leaving him barely any more popular than his party.

In short, the Conservatives appear to be heading unwaveringly on a course that leads towards heavy defeat in an election that is now at most little more than a year away.

But why do they find themselves in this position – and thus need to engineer a radical change in the public mood if they are to be in power after the next election? Some potentially valuable clues are to be found in the answers to two questions included in a poll conducted by the Public First agency for the Conservative-inclined Onward think tank at the beginning of August.

The company asked voters first of all what they thought the main achievements of the Conservatives had been over the last 13 years.

The most widely acknowledged by far was securing early access to a Covid vaccine – picked out by 40 per cent. Meanwhile, around one in five reckoned Brexit and gay marriage could be added to the list (though Conservatives themselves were keener on the former than the latter). Nothing else was selected by many more than one in ten.

Then, Public First asked what the party’s main failures were. Top of the list, again on 40 per cent, was too little effort on the NHS. At the same time, between a quarter and a third identified the cost of living, Liz Truss’ handling of the economy, high levels of immigration, and lockdown parties. In addition, Brexit was the one subject that appeared on both sides of the ledger. The list of failures is rather longer than the list of perceived achievements.

There is also clear evidence in the polls that those who voted Conservative in 2019, and who think that things have gone badly, are less likely to say they would vote Conservative again than those Tory supporters who think rather better about how things have been going. In short, the perception of failure is associated with defection.

For example, on health, the British Election Study’s big internet panel shows that just 45 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and who think the NHS has gotten a lot worse say they would vote Conservative again. In contrast, three-quarters of those who feel the NHS has gotten better say they will vote for the party again.

Trouble is, 2019 Conservative voters are twice as likely to think the health service has gotten a lot worse than they are to believe it has got better.

Similarly, on the economy, the same study shows that only around a half of those 2019 Conservatives who think the economy has gotten a lot worse now say they will vote Conservative – compared with three-quarters of those who are less critical of the state of the economy.

And nearly two in five 2019 Conservatives think the economy has gotten a lot worse.

Fortunately, for the Conservatives, very few of their supporters have changed their mind about Brexit – though only one in three of those who have, and would now vote to rejoin the EU, would back the party again.

However, on immigration the story is different. Whether or not 2019 Conservative voters think immigration has gone up or down makes relatively little difference to whether they would vote Conservative again. According to the recent polling conducted by Redfield & Wilton for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, the difference is no more than five points.

The picture is much the same in respect of “illegal” immigration, on which the prime minister has placed so much emphasis with his pledge to stop the boats.

While Conservative supporters are particularly keen to see immigration reduced, the government’s perceived failure to do so is not something that is dissuading them from voting Conservative again.

Meanwhile, collectively the polls conducted since the government’s latest attempt to appeal to its core voters by slowing the implementation of some net zero measures has had – at most – no more than a marginal impact on the party’s standing in the polls.

The message is clear. If the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis – a weak economy, an inflationary spiral, and poorly functioning public services. That means cutting NHS times as well as halving inflation. Trying to focus voters’ attention elsewhere, such as on so-called “wedge issues” like immigration and net zero, is unlikely to be enough.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast