It turns out people would rather be exploring North Wales and Cumbria than sunning it up by the sea in Cornwall this summer.

Taking the pressure off might be welcomed by some! – Owl

Lisa Letcher www.cornwalllive.com

That’s according to new research which says that says Cornwall is no longer Brits’ top choices for UK holidays this summer – along with Devon.

Sykes Holiday Cottages ‘ annual Staycation Index has unveiled the top 10 most popular UK regions for summer, and for the first time ever, neither of the South West hotspots have claimed the winning spot.

Instead, it’s North Wales and Cumbria that have become hits with Brits looking for a staycation, with countryside breaks seemingly reigning supreme over seaside escapes, reports the Mirror.

Of course that’s not to say Cornwall and Devon aren’t popular at all as they’re still firmly in the top 10 rankings taking the third and fourth places respectively.

Other popular staycation choices include the Peak District, Yorkshire Dales and Dorset (you can see the full list below).

The Peak District was actually unveiled as one of the destinations seeing the biggest increase in popularity, followed by Somerset and East Anglia.

With ongoing uncertainty around travelling abroad due to countries’ individual restrictions, it’s not surprising that Brits are opting to stay in the UK for the summer.

It looks like families are willing to splurge too, with the research unveiling that people are willing to splash out an average of £940 for a summer holiday, which includes their accommodation, travel, food and drink.

As for holiday types? Glamping, pet-friendly holidays and hot tub holidays have been some of the most popular choices from those looking to enjoy a memorable break.

Undoubtedly when international travel becomes easier there will be people flocking back to sunnier shores for summer holidays, but Sykes’ research found that the pandemic has changed the way people look at holidays at home. In fact, 46% of those surveyed said they would are now more likely to consider a staycation than prior to the pandemic.

Graham Donoghue, CEO of Sykes Holiday Cottages, said: “More Brits than ever are getting to experience everything the UK has to offer – whether that’s beach breaks along the South coast or exploring the picture-perfect Peak District.

“The pandemic will have a lasting impact on us all, and this is especially true for how people holiday. We expect the shift towards holidays at home to stick and hope to continue to see staycation destinations outside of the usual honeypot locations grow in popularity in the years to come.”

Top 10 most popular UK regions for summer 2021

1. North Wales
2. Cumbria
3. Cornwall
4. Devon
5. North Yorkshire
6. Yorkshire Dales
7. Peak District
8. South Wales
9. East Anglia
10. Dorset

When Richard Bunning needs to file reports on his cattle online, or do any of the other various bureaucratic tasks for his Devon farm, he uploads the information on to a hard drive and drives to the nearest town. From there he finds an open wifi hotspot and sends it via a tablet.

Shane Hickey www.theguardian.com 

The laborious effort is necessary because there is no broadband on his farm, and when he asked BT how much it would cost to connect him, he was quoted £70,000.

Now thousands of people like Bunning, who live in broadband black holes around the country, have been given a ray of hope when it comes to being able to get fully online without racking up crippling bills.

Last year the government launched the universal service obligation (USO), which gives households with poor internet access the right to demand “affordable” connectivity. But instead many were given high quotes, of up to £100,000, to get a minimum 10Mbps speed to their homes.

After an investigation by Ofcom, those bills should be cut substantially, and people like Bunning could end up getting connected for free.

At the centre of the problem was how BT administered the quote. Until recently, if someone applied for connection, they would be quoted the full amount, even if other houses stood to benefit from the same connection.

But Ofcom says BT is obliged to calculate how many eligible homes and companies could benefit from an installation, and divide the total cost accordingly before providing a quote to an applicant.

Tom Paton, of advice website Broadband Savvy, points out that BT and Ofcom had been operating on different wavelengths. He explains: “On the main USO website, operated by Ofcom, it says costs will be shared where possible. But when people contact BT to get a quote, it often tells them it’s an individual scheme, which has caused massive amounts of confusion for consumers.”

BT had insisted that shared costs were not permissible under USO rules, since only individual households can apply. Last October, Ofcom launched an investigation to consider whether BT was complying with its obligations. A recent update from the regulator says BT “will take steps to mitigate the consumer harm we have identified”.

“Ofcom’s recent finding is essentially it reminding BT of its obligations. Assuming BT keeps to its word and acts in good faith, it will now be possible for entire villages to get connected for a single price, which can be allocated to multiple households,” says Paton.

The news will be a boost to local communities which have been unable to get decent connectivity and whose economic productivity has lagged behind the national average as a result.

Installations that cost £3,400 or less are paid for by BT. In the case of a cluster of 10 houses, where the bill will be £10,000 to connect, previously the first person to ask to be connected would be given the bill.

Now BT will have to assume that 70% of the houses will request a connection, making the bill £1,430 each – which would be covered by BT as it would be under the £3,400 threshold.

Bunning says he thought at the time that it was very strange that it could cost more than £70,000. “I am waiting for BT to come back to me and make me a fair quote along with all the other people in my village who can’t get decent broadband,” he says.

BT has agreed to refund affected customers and reissue quotes it has previously provided.

Ofcom says: “As a result of our investigation, a number of people will receive lower quotes from BT in the future, and the company is refunding affected customers. However, some properties in very remote locations will always be expensive to connect.”

It is estimated that 190,000 premises still do not have access to decent broadband in the UK. But not all will benefit from the changes. Under proposed new rules from Ofcom, if the cost of connecting a property is less than £5,000 above the £3,400 threshold, once one customer pays, BT will start work. But if it is more than £5,000 per household over the threshold, the first customer must pay the full amount before BT starts work – meaning one customer could face one high overall bill before anyone gets connected.

BT says the company gives communities options to fund local infrastructure by sharing costs. “We’re committed to delivering connectivity to even more properties and welcome the recent constructive conversations with Ofcom, including their proposals to suspend their investigation while they seek to amend the scheme.

“Connecting homes in the most remote locations under the terms of the USO remains highly complex and extremely costly, and for these premises a different solution will be required.”

Paton says he expects BT’s phone to be ringing off the hook once people become aware of the changes. “It will soon become clear how BT plans to quote individual streets or villages,” he said.

“Faster broadband can increase the value of your home, so people are prepared to pay for an upgrade, as long as the quote is fair.”

. 

The pressure to “do something” about second homes continues to rise as the Sunday Times carries another article (split in the print edition into a shorter version and longer analysis) and an editorial on the subject.

Widespread ownership of second homes leaves Owl wondering if there will be anyone sufficiently lacking personal interest to devise a solution. An interesting example of conflict between local and Westminster agendas. – Owl

Helen Davies, Carol Lewis www.thetimes.co.uk 

MPs in some of Britain’s most popular holiday locations are calling on the government to act urgently as they grapple with an unprecedented housing crisis.

Locals have been left homeless by soaring property prices and the staycation boom as landlords evict tenants to put the property on Airbnb and capitalise on the tourism boom.

In South Hams, an area of outstanding natural beauty in Devon with more than 5,000 second homes, Anthony Mangnall, the Conservative MP for Totnes, is preparing to declare a housing emergency by the autumn.

“There are just 19 properties you can rent long-term in the whole of South Hams on Rightmove, yet there are 300 advertised on Airbnb in Salcombe, another 300 in Kingsbridge, a similar number in Totnes. Yet we have hospital staff who can’t find anywhere to live, RNLI crew that can’t live in the town they serve. This is starting to become dangerous.”

Mangnall is one of several MPs including Steve Double and Derek Thomas also in the southwest, and Duncan Baker in North Norfolk, to call on the housing secretary, Robert Jenrick, to introduce a range of measures to ease the housing crisis in key holiday spots from Cornwall to Cumbria. The Welsh government has also launched a consultation to address the issue of concerns over the number of second homes and holiday homes.

All say the pandemic has accelerated a problem which has been brewing for years fuelled by low interest rates, cheap mortgages, a stamp duty tax cut that is pushing their communities to breaking point.

Plans include regulation of Airbnb-style rentals; incentives for landlords to rent to local people; the building of more affordable homes; restrictions on the number of holiday and second homes; and the ability to impose council tax surcharges on second homes.

Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale in the Lake District launched a petition last Tuesday calling for planning law to be changed to stop family housing being turned into second homes and holiday lets.

“Homes now cost 11 times the average local income and I am now hearing stories of tenants being turfed out. It is awful. I’m calling it the Lakeland clearances. The market is utterly broken and if we don’t step in we will see entire populations move out,” he said.

In the first six months this year, 14,660 second homes were bought in Britain according to statistics from Countrywide, the largest estate agency chain in the UK, which is the highest number since 2009 when they began collecting data. In some areas of the Lake District, north Norfolk, Devon and Cornwall, up to 80 per cent of houses are thought to be holiday lets or second homes.

Cornwall looks beautiful with its spectacular sandy beaches, rugged coastal coves and rolling countryside dotted with villages. However, glance beyond the postcard-perfect views and there is a growing tide of discontent, despair and destitution.

Of the eight UK postcodes where house prices have risen by more than £100,000 in the past year alone, three are in Cornwall. Last week there was one available rental property in St Ives to be found on Rightmove but more than 300 homes in the seaside town were listed on Airbnb.

Houses are selling for millions of pounds — often double what they were two years ago despite a county average of £236,000, according to the Office for National Statistics — to buyers with seemingly limitless budgets. Estate agents are driving new Teslas, but key workers from cleaners to doctors are struggling to find somewhere to live. Some locals are camping just to get a roof over their head.

“The housing situation in Cornwall is the worst I have ever seen,” said Monique Collins, 55, who has worked with homeless people for more than 20 years. “The crisis is off the scale. We are seeing families facing absolute disaster. We’ve had people suddenly finding themselves evicted because their landlords want to put the property on Airbnb or they want to cash in on the crazy prices and sell. So many people are living in tents or vans — there is nowhere for them to go.”

Collins, who runs the Drop In and Share Centre, a charity in Newquay, said: “I took a call today from a woman who has two children. Her landlord has told her she has three months to leave because he wants to start Airbnb-ing the property. There are always people who are long-term homeless for many reasons. But what I’ve seen this year are working people, families, children, being made homeless on a daily basis.”

The issue is now so acute that the Bishop of Truro, the Right Rev Philip Mounstephen, spoke out last month on the “devastating” effect second homes are having on communities in Cornwall. Double, the Conservative MP for St Austell and Newquay, is calling on the government to introduce an emergency amendment to the planning bill, due to come before parliament in the autumn, to help councils to control the number of second homes in their areas.

There are now an estimated 10,000 Airbnbs in Cornwall. “It has been a growing problem for some time but in the last 18 months has escalated so that it is now a crisis,” Double said. “Landlords who have been letting property for £800-£900 a month have now realised they can make £1,500 a week. If you can’t supply homes for residents then the system is failing. We have a real staff shortage this summer. I heard about a hotel in Newquay that struggled to find chefs. It hired two from London, but they had to withdraw after they couldn’t find places to live.”

About 30 miles along the Atlantic coast, Thomas, MP for St Ives, West Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, is also campaigning to charge “twice or treble council tax and ring-fence that to subsidise local services.”

“The lack of availability of affordable secure homes is holding back Cornwall’s economy as people cannot take up the employment opportunities due to a lack of available housing. This problem also restricts our ability to attract public sector workers including dentists and planning officers, which seems ironic,” he said.

Doctors in Cornwall are struggling. Henry Coates, 26, is only a few days into his new posting as a junior doctor at the Royal Cornwall Hospital in Truro. He has spent the past month looking for a rental property, but a search radius of up to 30 miles has proved fruitless.

Across the UK, the number of new properties being listed for letting is down 14 per cent in 2021 compared with the 2017-19 average, according to analysis by the property portal Zoopla. In Cornwall, it is down 44 per cent.

Coates says almost all the new junior doctors joining the hospital this summer are facing a similar problem. “There is just nothing available to rent on a long-term basis. I think about 80 per cent of the new junior doctors who are starting work here this summer are in temporary accommodation. I didn’t think it would be as bad as it is. The greatest frustration is that there are actually enough houses down to support the population, but the problem is that the people who own them are not based here.”

Meanwhile, property prices soar with homes selling without even being seen. The tales of gazumping that were the talk of supper parties and ice-cream queues last year have been replaced with stories of evictions.

“Housing is all anyone talks about,” said Jessica Cecil-Wright, an artist, who was born and brought up in Cornwall “running wild and free on a farm with my sister where there were no rules”. Today she and her sister are back living at that farm, near Wadebridge in north Cornwall. Her sister is in a barn, and Cecil-Wright and her three children — Dora, 9, Zach, 8 and Ted, 6 — temporarily share the main house with her mother. “Prices for a three or four-bedroom house in the area were about £300,000 a year ago, now they are £450,000. Rentals are now £200-£300 more a month. I honestly don’t really know what I am going to do.”

A housebuilder, who did not want to be named, admits that property developers like himself are partly responsible for fuelling runaway prices but even he is a victim of it. Living in rented accommodation, he now can’t afford to buy. “We sold our house with the intention that we would rent until we found the ‘ideal’ property, not realising that the market was going to explode the way it has. I now find myself building really nice houses for other people that I can’t afford to buy myself.”

Despite saving for a deposit for more than a decade, Imogen Weatherly, 29, has given up hope. “All I want to do is build my life and be settled in the area that I grew up in,” said Weatherly, who works for Creative Kernow, running a project bringing cinema screenings to village halls. She has been looking in Camborne, one of the poorest towns in England. “Even here the houses I’ve been looking at are now £20,000-£40,000 more than they were six months ago. I can’t save any faster, nor can I suddenly double what I earn. Buying a house feels impossible now.”

Last year Princess Anne acknowledged there was a shortage of affordable houses in most rural areas when she guest edited Country Life magazine. She wrote: “One of my pleas … is for housing for local families that are priced out of the market; for young, single people who would like to stay and work in their home village or area; young families; and retired people who were born in the village and would like to return home.”

Cornwall council has announced plans to build hundreds of “pop-up” homes for those without a permanent home, including single cabins and static caravan-type homes that can house a family so people are not placed in hotels or B&Bs where they can be evicted at any moment.

“The council is very aware of the crisis,” said Olly Monk, Cornwall council’s portfolio holder for housing and planning, who said the changes in the housing market in the county this year had been “seismic”. In the longer term, he said, the council was talking to housing developers about buying as many new properties as they could.

“There’s a perfect storm at the moment in terms of supply and demand for housing and it’s a worrying time for lots of people,” he said.

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said: “We have introduced a series of measures to help mitigate the adverse effect large numbers of second homes can have on some areas, including higher rates of stamp duty for buyers of second homes.

“We’ve delivered more than 542,000 affordable homes since 2010 and are investing more than £12 billion in affordable housing over the next five years.”

David Cameron met with the UK’s vaccine minister less than two months before a private health firm, which pays him for his advice, won £870,000-worth of public contracts.

Martin Williams www.opendemocracy.net 

The UK arm of Illumina Inc. was awarded two contracts relating to genome sequencing by Public Health England in late April.

But openDemocracy can reveal that Cameron discussed “UK genomics sequencing” with vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi on 1 March. Official disclosures also make it clear that Illumina was being represented at the meeting.

Cameron has previously claimed that his role at the company is simply to promote the benefits of genome sequencing, and that he does not lobby the government for contracts on Illumina’s behalf.

But questions have been raised previously about his role at the company. In 2019, Illumina secured a £123m contract the week after Cameron appeared at a genomics conference with the then health secretary Matt Hancock.

Cameron set up Genomics England, which is wholly owned by the department of health, during his time as prime minister. A £78m deal between Genomics England and Illumina was later announced.

Cameron visited Illumina’s headquarters in the US, shortly after resigning as prime minister in 2016, and “shared optimism for the opportunity for Illumina’s technology”. He was signed up as an adviser to the company in 2018, while also becoming chair of its international advisory board.

“David Cameron’s behaviour is evidence that the rules that are supposed to regulate lobbying are completely unfit for purpose and need a radical and urgent overhaul,” Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, told openDemocracy.

“There appears to be nobody in government who the former prime minister has not lobbied in an effort to enrich himself and his clients during this pandemic.”

David Cameron’s behaviour is evidence that the rules that are supposed to regulate lobbying are completely unfit for purpose

When he was appointed to Illumina, Cameron said he “would not play any role in contract negotiations between Genomics England (or DH) and Illumina”.

He confirmed that the role “might involve some very limited contact with UK ministers from time to time”, but said he would not lobby ministers on behalf of the company.

Rose Whiffen, research officer at Transparency International UK, said: “It will make troubling reading for many that a former prime minister can meet with his past colleagues in government on behalf of a paying client, yet there are no enforceable rules to prevent this from happening.”

Whiffen added: “Given what we know now about his lobbying for Greensill, the appearance of David Cameron elsewhere in official transparency disclosures suggests that was not an isolated attempt by him to exert influence in Whitehall after leaving office.”

‘Reputation in tatters’ after Greensill

This month an official parliamentary inquiry accused Cameron of a “significant lack of judgment” after his intensive efforts to lobby for Greensill Capital were revealed.

Between March and June last year, the ex-PM sent at least 62 emails, texts and WhatsApp messages to former government colleagues, desperately trying to get them to help the supply chain finance company, in which Cameron held a “very significant personal economic interest”.

When Boris Johnson was self-isolating with COVID symptoms before being admitted to intensive care, Cameron messaged cabinet minister Michael Gove saying: “I know you are manically busy – and doing a great job, by the way … But do you have a moment for a word? I am on this number and v free.”

And in a text to the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, he said: “I can’t see the case against helping to fund supply chains and SMEs in this way […] Could you try and give it another nudge over the finish line.”

Appearing in front of a parliamentary committee in May, Cameron was told he had left his “reputation in tatters” and had drawn the position of prime minister into “disrepute”.

The committee’s report, published this month, said Cameron had not breached lobbying rules, but argued that this “reflects on the insufficient strength of the rules”.

Kirsten Oswald, the SNP’s Westminster deputy leader, told openDemocracy that the government “can no longer continue to dodge accountability and scrutiny”.

“At a time when the government’s focus should be on protecting lives, the Tories have instead been driven by self-interest – with friends, contacts and party donors rewarded with lucrative COVID contracts.”

She added: “The prime minister must now act upon his words and immediately commence the COVID-19 public inquiry.”

A spokesperson for Illumina told The Independent: “Illumina always follows the correct and necessary process in its negotiations with customers.

“We have worked with Genomics England since 2013, when we won a competitive tender process for the £78m contract for the 100,000 Genomes Project. Our ISO-accredited facilities in Cambridge were chosen by Genomics England as being the most appropriate in the UK in terms of being able to deliver this advanced genomics programme.

“The vast majority of David Cameron’s work with Illumina is outside the UK, representing the best practices of the UK in genomics to other countries.”

Cameron did not respond to a request for comment.

Boris Johnson’s support has collapsed in Conservative heartlands in the southeast and east of England, according to a poll that suggests the party could lose 17 seats.

Eleni Courea, Steven Swinford www.thetimes.co.uk 

The Tories’ rating is down by eight points from the 2019 general election levels in so-called blue wall areas, a YouGov survey for The Times has found.

The findings are based on 53 Tory-held seats that voted to stay in the European Union in the 2016 referendum and had a higher than average share of university degree holders.

They have similar voting profiles to Chesham & Amersham, where the Conservatives suffered a surprise by-election defeat to the Liberal Democrats last month. The electorate rejected the Conservatives for the first time, by 8,000 votes.

The polling suggested that the Conservatives would lose 12 seats if an election took place now.

They would lose constituencies that have returned Tory MPs since their inception, such as Chingford & Woodford Green, which is represented by the former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith; Chipping Barnet, held by the former cabinet minister Theresa Villiers, and Wycombe, held by the former Brexit minister Steve Baker.

Nine of the 12 seats would go to Labour, which was up by four points in the blue wall areas surveyed, and three to the Liberal Democrats.

A further five seats were on a knife edge, including Esher & Walton, held by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary.

Patrick English, a research manager for YouGov, said: “The results of the blue wall poll highlight just how difficult a job Boris Johnson has in balancing his new voter coalition.

“The exact sorts of policies and priorities on issues such as Brexit and investment which are winning him support in the north and Midlands are quite clearly costing him and his party in the south and east.

“This divergence and the political realignment which follows has only been growing stronger in recent years, as the Conservative’s contrasting fortunes in the Hartlepool and Chesham & Amersham by-elections this year show.”

In May the Tories took Hartlepool, which had not returned a Conservative MP since 1959, from Labour.

English added: “Unless the prime minister can find some way to appeal to both houses, the closer we move to the next general election the larger the cracks in the foundation of Conservative support will grow.”

While Johnson enjoys a national ten-point lead on the question of who would make the best prime minister, in the blue wall areas surveyed he was barely ahead of Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader.

Just 35 per cent of blue wall voters said they thought Johnson was the best person for the job, while 31 per cent backed Starmer. Only two thirds of blue wall voters who backed the Tories in 2019 said they believed that Johnson would make the best prime minister now.

Support for the Conservatives in those areas was at 44 per cent, down from 52 per cent in 2019.

Labour’s support was 24 per cent, up from 20 per cent. The Liberal Democrats dropped from 24 per cent to 18 per cent. Support for the Green Party rose by seven points during that period from 2 per cent to 9 per cent.

A majority of blue wall voters — 54 per cent — said they thought the government was not listening to their concerns, compared with 27 per cent who thought it was.

Some 47 per cent said they thought the government was taking the country in the right direction, compared with 32 per cent who thought it was going in the wrong one.

The blue wall voters surveyed were sceptical about Brexit, with 52 per cent saying the UK had been wrong to leave the EU compared with 40 per cent who thought it was the right decision.

They expressed particular concern about plans to build more housing in their areas, which is thought to have been a key reason behind the Tories’ defeat in Chesham & Amersham.

Forty-three per cent of those surveyed said they would support new housing in their local area, compared with 52 per cent who were opposed. By comparison, 37 per cent of people nationally are opposed to more housing being built in their area.

The construction of HS2 also emerged as a significant issue, with 46 per cent of blue wall voters saying they were opposed to it compared with 24 per cent who supported it.

Boris Johnson is in trouble. Public support for his government is tanking. His approval ratings have slumped. His own voters are fed up. His MPs are livid. His former advisors have declared war. The Great Reopening is rapidly making way for what some are calling his “Summer of Discontent”.

Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics at the University of Kent. He is the co-author of National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy (Penguin) unherd.com July 30, 2021

“The Tories are blundering and the vaccine bounce is wearing off amid rows over pay rises for nurses and police officers,” writes The Mirror, “as well as cuts to foreign aid and the planned undoing of the pensions triple lock”. Speaking for many, Robert Shrimsley at the Financial Times similarly asks: “Is it possible that the UK will look back on the last few months as the moment we reached Peak Johnson?”

There is no doubt that dark clouds are hovering above No 10. There is the infighting in Downing Street. The U-turn on self-isolation. The Pingdemic. The unpopularity of vaccine passports on the right-wing flank. The failure to define “levelling-up”. Two by-election defeats. And then the former consiglieri who is repeatedly undermining the credibility and authority of his former Capo.

But are things really that bad for Johnson? I’m not convinced. In the polls, the Conservatives have certainly taken a knock. In the last two weeks alone, their lead is down by 9 points with both YouGov and Survation and 5 points with Redfield & Wilton. Across all polls, at the start of July the average Conservative lead was 8 points. In the very latest polls, it has fallen below 5 points.

In fact, they have led in every single one of the last 130 polls. When it comes to Conservatives only Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher know what this feels like and neither of them had to deal with a global pandemic.

Johnson has already achieved a level of stability and support in the polls that neither David Cameron nor John Major ever achieved. He has only fallen below 40% on 16 occasions this year. Labour has not held a lead outside of the margin of error since January. If I were Johnson’s strategist and woke up to find this as my bad day, then I’d grab it with both hands.

Look under the bonnet and you will see why. There are certainly some things for Team Johnson to worry about. Public approval of the performance of the Government and Johnson himself are both down by 10 points. Only this week, pollsters Redfield and Wilton put Johnson’s net approval rating at minus 15, his lowest since they began asking the question in March 2020.

But compare and contrast. Keir Starmer is also at minus 15 and trails Johnson on the most important indicators of leadership. Who can build a strong economy? Johnson leads by 15. Who would stand up best for the UK? Johnson leads by 8. Who knows how to get things done? Johnson leads by 10. Who is a strong leader? Johnson leads by 9. Leadership is one of the most reliable predictors of election victories and this one really is not close at all.

More to the point, the people who are questioning the direction of travel are not switching to Labour. It is a negative reaction against the Government not a positive endorsement of the opposition. Starmer has not won them over because most people have no idea who Starmer is or what Starmer believes.

The blunt reality is that the Labour brand remains deeply problematic. So much so that its supporters should probably look away now. What follows are numbers that have simply never been held by a party on the way to power.

Only 20% of Britain think that Labour is trustworthy while more than twice that number say that the party is untrustworthy. Only 15% of people think that Labour is competent while half of them say it is incompetent. Only 7% think that Labour is strong while 64 per cent say that it is weak. Only 6% think that Labour is united while close to 60% say that it is divided. Only 15% think that Labour is in touch while 56% think that it is out of touch. And only 15% think that Labour has a clear sense of purpose while over 60% say it is unclear what it stands for.

Labour’s weakness is compounded by longer-term problems that have still not been resolved. Even if these numbers were stronger, the electorate of the Left and the liberal Left remains deeply fragmented. Close to two-thirds of Britain’s Leavers are lining up behind the Conservatives but less than half of Remainers are lined up behind Labour. Close to one in five progressives are still breaking off to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, which is making it harder for Labour to concentrate and mobilise support under a first-past-the-post system.

One of the main reasons why Johnson and the Conservatives are wobbling in the polls is not because their supporters are switching to Labour, but because a larger number of their supporters are taking a time out.

The challenge to Johnson would be much more serious if his voters were instrumentally endorsing an opposition leader who had a compelling message. But that is not what is happening right now.

What is happening is that a larger number of people who voted Conservative in 2019 now say that they no longer know who to vote for or will not vote at all at the next election; it has jumped from 16 to 24%. Only about three-fifths of the people who backed Boris Johnson two years ago now say that they would do so again were an election held tomorrow.

It is worth remembering that two months before Johnson won power in 2019, about the same proportion of people said the same thing before drifting back to the Conservatives to keep Labour out of power.

But while I do think that Johnson’s critics are exaggerating the case against him, there are two red flags that he would be well advised to watch closely.

Between now and the next election, Johnson needs to shore up his support among two groups in particular. The first are Conservatives on the libertarian wing who he has alienated throughout the pandemic. Even today, a rather large 40% of Conservative voters think that his government is still managing the pandemic badly. Depending on how you ask the question, between 16 and 32% also appear strongly opposed to anything that looks like a Covid-19 “vaccine passport”, which could be another problem.

The other group are cultural conservatives who are starting to take notice of something that the whole Brexit saga was supposed to solve and which Boris Johnson struggles to relate to: immigration. Only this week, Conservatives put immigration alongside the economy as the most important issue facing Britain.

With the salience of immigration beginning to rise as the media and Nigel Farage focus on illegal migrants crossing into Britain, this has the potential to cause a major problem for a Conservative Party that now relies on a far more culturally conservative electorate. Throw in a surge of net migration after the pandemic is resolved and it is not hard to see how this problem escalates into a far more serious one, much as it did through the 2010s.

The key question is have Team Johnson learned that lesson? Keeping their electorate culturally aligned and leaning into the realignment of British politics is ultimately the only thing that will keep them in No 10.

Good Law Project had a court hearing last week in connection with our challenge to the award of a lucrative public contract to associates of Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings at Hanbury without competition.

Documents we can now disclose show that Hanbury, under the instruction of the Cabinet Office, was given taxpayers’ money to conduct ‘political polling’ on key opposition figures, including Keir Starmer and Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.

The decision to spend public money polling on opposition politicians left civil servants deeply, and rightly, uncomfortable. One said on email: ‘hanbury measure attitude towards political figures, which they shouldn’t do using government money, but they have been asked to and it’s a battle that i think is hard to fight.’

Documents unearthed in the course of our hearing also include this March 2020 email from Dominic Cummings to civil servants demanding approval is given ‘immediately’ for Hanbury to commence polling work, adding ‘Anybody in CABOFF whines tell them i ordered it from PM.’

News of Hanbury’s involvement was not well-received. One civil servant wrote: ‘this all makes me really uncomfortable. ben warner wants us to spend £110k of public money per month with the agency who were behind vote leave who have no mainstream polling experience.’

The evidence also shows Dominic Cummings’ close ally and former No.10 advisor Ben Warner (another Vote Leave veteran) was directing civil servants to his private WhatsApp rather than his official email address. In one email to civil servants, he claims: ‘often its easier to catch me over WhatsApp than email’. Needless to say, Government hasn’t disclosed any of Mr Warner’s WhatsApp messages.

This money doesn’t belong to the Tories. They shouldn’t be spending it working out how to win elections. It’s public money – from taxes we all work hard to pay. And it’s a kind of theft for them to misuse it for the purposes of the Conservative Party.

Thank you,

Jo Maugham – Good Law Project

Cornwall already has. Somerset’s going that way.

Circa 2010, EDDC , led by Sarah Randall Johnson, spent more than £250,000 to persuade us – and the Government – that they should NOT be forced to amalgamate into, basically, a “Greater Exeter” OR a unitary authority.

Under the government guidelines for unitary authorities Devon would be too big and therefore likely to be split into smaller units.

However, DCC leader John Hart has gone on record in2018 as saying two unitary councils for two different parts of Devon can never happen, since however you split the county there would always be a poorer authority and a richer one.

Could he be the dynamic personality to lead us to the promised land? – Owl

Joe Ives, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Earlier in July, it was announced by the government that five councils in Somerset are to be replaced by a single unitary authority.  If matters progress as expected, the county and four district councils will cease to exist on 1 April 2023.

A similar slimming down for Devon’s local government has been discussed for years,  often meeting with fierce debate.

Between 2007 and 2010, significant energy was put behind attempts to reorganise Devon’s two-tier structure.

The two options on the table included a unitary authority for the whole of Devon. The other would have promoted Exeter to its own unitary authority. 

The Exeter option was given the green light by the Labour government only to be scrapped when the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition came to power.

But the issue is still bubbling away. Speaking this week, several Devon’s MPs declined to dismiss the idea outright, citing the potential efficiencies and cost-savings of streamlined local government services.

Simon Jupp, Conservative MP for East Devon, said; “I believe we need a conversation as a county about the future of local government and value for money for the taxpayer. 

“I don’t think a single council covering the whole county would be advised by government due to the significant size of our population.

“However, our neighbouring counties have all now decided to reduce the number of councils to help neighbouring communities work stronger together, build better services and squeeze every taxpayers’ penny.”

Kevin Foster, Conservative MP for Torbay, said: “Over the next two years it is right councils across Devon focus on the recovery from the coronavirus, rather than their own structures, yet in the longer term a discussion about a unitary system of local government for Devon is inevitable as the two-tier structure disappears across England, having already been abolished in Wales and Scotland. 

“Unitary structures work well across the south west and few in Cornwall would now argue for a return to the previous two-tier structure abolished in 2009.

“Torbay should be a pro-active part of any discussion about how a unitary system would work across Devon and the potential boundaries of new councils created to cover the current two-tier area, for example, Torbay becoming part of a wider South Devon Unitary.

“A core part of any move to unitary status would also be deciding how communities across Devon could still shape and influence items which related to their own community.”

Meanwhile, Selaine Saxby, Conservative MP for North Devon said: “Devon is a very big county so would one unitary work here? I think there are benefits of having local councils.

“The joy of North Devon council is that it’s here in North Devon and therefore it properly understands the people of North Devon and the local area, whereas when a lot of issues arise I know our county council is a very long way away from us.

“But similarly I do think there are benefits from a unitary and I think talking and working in the pandemic with different authorities and knowing what’s gone on in Cornwall I think there are some advantages of having a bigger authority managing everything in one place. 

“To bring planning and infrastructure and schools all into one body so they’re not separated I can see some advantages to this. 

“So I think it’s something we should probably look to in case there are advantages that we can benefit from moving forward.”

Councillor Philip Bialyk (Labour), leader of Exeter City Council said that, having spoken to council leaders across the county, that a unitary authority “is not the direction we would want to go.”

“However, we do feel there are a number of areas we can work together in the interests of Devon and we will hopefully be bringing a county proposal to government for a county deal which clearly will be lead by the county with all the district councils participating.”

“We think this is the best way to have a collective forum in which we can do the best things for Devon.”

Cllr Bialyk said discussions for this proposal were in an early stage at the moment  and included Devon County Council and other district councils and said that he hopes it would “bring forward a good deal for Devon.”

Asked what areas he would like to see these councils collaborate on he said that was all part of the discussion, adding: “We are diverse county. Rural meets urban. We’ve got to make sure we get the right mix.

“We’ve got to try to make sure that we get an attractive proposition to government which reflects the needs of our residents.

“We know what we want in Devon. We’ve got to get around the table. We’ve got to get our heads together and that’s exactly what we all want to do.

“We want to work together with the county council and we feel we can get a good deal which represents everybody.”

Explaining his thoughts of a unitary authority for Exeter, like that which almost came to pass early in the 2010s, he said: “That’s not on the agenda.

“I’m not giving that any thought because that’s not a possibility. We are a strong sovereign district council, we want to remain as that.”

Speaking to the Local Democracy Reporting Service in July last year about the potential to unify Devon councils, leader of Devon County Council John Hart (Conservative) said: “I have no wish to open up a guerrilla war and start something and get us into a position that might not be resolved in the short term and argue with the districts for years on end and ruin the current good relationship.”

Councillor Rob Hannaford, leader of the Labour group, added: “There is clearly no appetite in Devon for another costly and disruptive reorganisation of our local government. 

“To blow everything up now would be an act of political vandalism to our local communities, and a terrible barrier to making the progress that we need to make across the whole county.”

In his ‘Levelling Up’ speech on 15 July, the prime minister set out a new County Deals system that would look to devolve more power to local communities. More details will be announced in the Levelling Up white paper, due later this year.

Commenting on the potential for unitarisation in Devon, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) said:

“We’re open to discussion with councils about unitarisation where there is a good deal of local support.

“We are clear that any reform of an area’s local government is most effectively achieved through locally-led proposals put forward by those who best know the area, the very essence of localism to which the Government remains committed.”

The MHCLG said it was conscious that councils are more focused on service delivery than any structural changes in the wake of the pandemic.

They said they want to see the Levelling Up White Paper before developing proposals for local government reform or county deals, as they did not wish to see councils spending money on developing new proposals at this time.

The department said that there will be no requirement to unitarise for the forthcoming county deals.

Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty cut – an effort to keep the pandemic-hit property market afloat – did more harm than good, economists have said.

www.thelondoneconomic.com 

The stamp duty holiday for properties worth more than £500,000 was introduced by the Treasury to ease the impact of Covid-19 on property transactions. It ended in June, having fuelled a remarkable surge in house prices.

Yet despite the tax break boosting the number of house sales, economists believe that any saving for buyers was mostly subsumed by a spike in house prices.

The average UK house price increased by 10 per cent in the year to May 2021, and 9.7 per cent in England, according to the Office for National Statistics.

That left the average UK property costing £255,000 in May 2021 – £23,000 higher than in May 2020.

‘Wasn’t needed’

In June, Andy Haldane – then the chief economist at the Bank of England – said the residential housing market was “on fire”, increasing the gap between incomes and house prices.

“If you asked the chancellor if he could go through it again, he wouldn’t have done the stamp duty cut, because we have got a surge in housing demand anyway,” Andrew Burrell, chief property economist at Capital Economics, told The Independent.

“This added a spike up and a spike down, at the end, that probably wasn’t needed. You’d have still had strong house prices.”

House prices have nearly tripled in the past twenty years, despite the average salary not yet doubling in the same period.

The average home in Britain is now worth £163,700 more — £106,800 once adjusted for inflation — than it was in 2001, according to research from Zoopla.

The company’s research shows those who bought their home before the financial crash saw a dip in its value between 2008 and 2012, but these losses have been offset by strong price growth since 2013.

‘Race for space’

Prices have risen the most in Kensington and Chelsea in west London, where the average house price is about £1.2 million. Properties in the Royal Borough are worth £739,800 more on average than they were two decades ago.

A pandemic-induced “race for space” led to huge demand for country houses and buyers rushed to meet the stamp-duty holiday deadline in June.

This pushed up prices in the countryside, where property values increased by 3.7 per cent in the three months to June — the biggest quarterly rise in 15 years, Knight Frank, the estate agent, reported.

Nearly a third of home movers surveyed said they were more likely to move to the countryside as a result of the latest lockdown.

As the ONS publishes its latest COVID – 19 insights Owl tries to make sense of what, superficially, appear to be conflicting data from: the ONS; daily published case rates from the government dashboard and the Zoe symptom app.

From the ONS:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases continued to increase in England and have increased in Wales and Northern Ireland in the week ending 24 July 2021, but decreased in Scotland.

The estimated percentage of the community population (those not in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings) that had COVID-19 was:

• 1.57% (1 in 65 people) in England, up from 1.36% (1 in 75 people) last week
• 0.62% (1 in 160 people) in Wales, up from 0.47% (1 in 210 people) last week
• 1.48% (1 in 65 people) in Northern Ireland, up from 0.59% (1 in 170 people) last week
• 0.94% (1 in 110 people) in Scotland, down from 1.24% (1 in 80 people) last week

From daily case rates:

Since the end of April, daily case rates (the data given most publicity via the government dashboard) have been volatile, swinging up and then down, best illustrated graphically:

From the Zoe symptom tracker app:

This is now showing, as with the ONS data, much higher prevalence than the current reported case rates but in the past few days has indicated a turning point, again best illustrated graphically:

How might we interpret all this?

The first point to make is that there is no perfect measure of the extent of infection in the population. All  these are good data sources but each has its strengths and limitations.

For example, the ONS data come from a randomised sample i.e. includes those who are showing no symptoms but it is a lagging indicator in that it takes time to collect the samples and collate the information. So it is a week or so behind. 

Case rate reporting has a shorter time lag but is a record of those coming forward for testing i.e it misses asymptomatic and mild cases. The government list of symptoms is also regarded by many experts as being too restrictive. With all the publicity given to the “pingdemic” it is possible that some may be less likely to present for testing. It is worth pointing out that both the ONS and Zoe data indicate much higher rates (about twice for the Zoe data). 

The Zoe data has the advantage of daily reporting from a very large sample, about a million contributors, but it uses symptoms as proxy measures and the sample, although large, is self-selecting.

Pandemic data doesn’t usually move in such dramatic fashion as shown by the case rate data without an underlying intervention or event such as a lockdown. As a community moves towards herd immunity, one would expect infection rates gradually to plateau, then gradually to fall.

Big swings most likely reflect some sort of behavioural change. The problem with interpretation is that we have had a number of these, some positive, some negative: school closure; a heat wave; people gathering to watch Euro 2021 etc. There are other changes stemming from “Freedom Day” which may only just be beginning to affect the data: opening up of enclosed spaces to large gatherings such as nightclubs, pubs and cinemas.

Summary

Owl’s interpretation, for what it’s worth, is that, despite the publicity given to case rates, there is a high level of Covid in circulation. The implication of this is that incautious behaviour could trigger a rapid surge in cases, a superspreading event. However, there now seems to be evidence that, all else being equal, we may be on the threshold of some sort of herd immunity and could see a sustained gradual decline. The ONS shows numbers declining in Scotland.

The Devon village where 80% of properties are second homes

Will Humphries, Southwest Correspondent www.thetimes.co.uk

In the picturesque seaside village of Hope Cove, second home ownership is running at an alarming 80 per cent.

The ageing residents who remain in the south Devon parish, close to Salcombe, fear the march of the holiday home is increasing after their objections to two hotels being converted into holiday homes and apartments have been dismissed by the local council.

“Out of 400 homes only about 80 have permanent residents and the rest are second homes,” said Tom Windle, a retired oil exploration geologist from London who moved to the parish in 2009.

In winter the dark streets are often only punctuated by lights in the windows of every third or fourth house in a row.

Windle, who at 70 describes himself as “one of the younger ones”, said: “There has been no attempt to bring in young families or anything that is affordable. It has always been a question of ‘let’s knock down and build holiday homes’.”

South Hams district council has granted planning permission in recent years for the demolition or conversion of two local hotels in favour of holiday apartments and residential flats which locals believe will quickly become yet more second homes.

The parish council opposed both projects.

Lantern Lodge Hotel, which had 14 guest bedrooms, is being demolished to make way for nine holiday apartments, five residential homes and a staff residence in a £3.3 million redevelopment project.

In 2016, the council refused planning permission for the demolition of the hotel and construction of five homes because it would cause the “loss of a valued tourist facility in a prime location” and didn’t “provide affordable housing provision in an area with an exceptional and demonstrable local need”.

Trinity Square Developments said the approved holiday apartment, with uninterrupted views over the English Channel, would be aimed at the UK’s growing “staycation” market.

Further up the hill from the Lantern Lodge is the ten-bedroom Sand Pebbles Hotel, which was sold earlier this year with planning permission for conversion into five holiday cottages, plus owners’ accommodation.

Paul Green, 79, a parish councillor and former aircraft technician who retired to the parish from Coventry 16 years ago, said the present owners of the Sand Pebbles “wanted to do something different than is in the plans”.

“They called a meeting of the parish council and asked us what we wanted to see there and we said we wanted it back as a hotel again because we are losing so many in the area,” Green said.

“The two hotels we have left in Hope Cove are fully booked and so they are clearly viable businesses. It appears, as far as money making goes, that developers think it’s easier to make money from holiday flats than from hotels.”

Green said second homes were vital for the local economy, with those who spend about six months a year in the village helping to raise funds for the local lifeboat station from their permanent homes in places like Bournemouth.

But he said the sheer number of second homes had left too few residents to run village organisations and associations.

“Locals don’t think the hotels should be converted unless they can be proven to be operating at a loss and they haven’t done that,” Green said.

The South Huish neighbourhood plan, passed in May this year, states that a hotel or tourism-related site should only be deemed no longer viable and granted permission for a change of use if it can be determined through an independent assessment that the vacant unit has been actively marketed and offered at a reasonable sale price for at least two years.

The Sand Pebbles Hotel said in its planning application that there had been a steady fall in turnover from £208,000 in 2015 to £150,000 in 2019.

“It is clear that the demand for the hotel has been falling over several years,” its agent said in a report.

The South Hams planning officer agreed, adding in his final report: “It is also relevant that trends in this sector are changing, with a shift towards family accommodation that cannot be met through single hotel rooms which often do not cater for families of four and more.”

Green said he believes it is now “too late” for government legislation to save villages such as Hope Cove from being swallowed by second homes and holiday apartments.

Labour has called for Boris Johnson to explain the existence of a secretive “advisory board” for wealthy Conservative donors who have received regular access to the prime minister and Rishi Sunak.

Heather Stewart www.theguardian.com 

The Financial Times reported that party chair Ben Elliot, charged with beefing up Tory fundraising efforts, had created the club for some of the party’s most generous donors, some giving £250,000 a year or more.

The Conservative party confirmed the existence of the board, and the fact that its members meet with senior party figures for “political updates”.

News that the chancellor and prime minister have been holding discussions with super-rich donors comes as the government is facing a series of key decisions on tax and spending, including how to pay for rebuilding the creaking social care system.

Elliot founded Quintessentially, a concierge service for the rich, as well as PR firm Hawthorn. The FT reported he had hosted a drinks party at one donor’s home, at which Johnson was present.

Mohamed Amersi, a businessman and Tory donor, told the paper the club was “like the very elite Quintessentially clients membership: one needs to cough up £250,000 per annum or be a friend of Ben”.

Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds said: “This appears to be less of an advisory board than a means for a select group of elite donors to gain privileged access to the prime minister and the chancellor.

“The Conservative party needs to explain what access this group had, what they have used that access to lobby for, and why they think it’s OK for there to be one rule for high-ranking Conservatives and another rule for everyone else.”

A Conservative party spokesperson said: “Donations are properly and transparently declared to the Electoral Commission, published by them, and comply fully with the law.

“Fundraising is a legitimate part of the democratic process. The alternative is more taxpayer-funding of political campaigning, which would mean less money for frontline services like schools, police and hospitals.”

Johnson was recently criticised for defying the House of Lords appointments commission by giving a peerage to Peter Cruddas, a former Conservative co-treasurer involved in a previous cash-for-access scandal.

Cruddas resigned as Conservative co-treasurer in 2012 after the Sunday Times claimed he was offering access to the prime minister for up to £250,000. A year later Cruddas won £180,000 in damages in a libel action, although that was subsequently reduced to £50,000 after aspects of the original allegations were upheld when the paper appealed.

Claims have again surfaced that Boris Johnson often moans his £157,000 salary is not enough to get by on.

Sam Courtney-Guy metro.co.uk 

The PM had to give up several lucrative gigs when he took office including £275,000 a year to write a weekly column for the Daily Telegraph, slashing his total earnings from a reported £830,000.

Meanwhile his expenses have ramped up, including a divorce settlement with ex-wife Marina Wheeler which is rumoured to have left him ‘cleaned out’.

It is now commonplace to hear Boris complain about money problems, according to Downing Street insiders interviewed for a new investigation into the PM’s personal finances.

Mr Johnson is said to occasionally come out with tear-jerkers such as: ‘I just can’t afford to do this job’.

Rumours of his financial difficulties crystallised around the ‘Wallpapergate’ scandal earlier this year, when it emerged that a refurbishment of the Downing Street had been paid for by Tory donors and that tens of thousands of pounds of costs had not been declared – though the party insists it was registered ‘correctly’.

Although the PM eventually picked up the tab, the report, by the Financial Times, now indicates was initially advised to pay for the work with a loan.

One Downing Street staffer told the newspaper: ‘Boris would come down and complain about how much it was all going to cost.’

The recommendation is said to have come from the Conservative party’s co-chair, Ben Elliot, who, in contrast to his close friend Boris, is known in Tory circles as a fundraising virtuoso who is never short of cash or wealthy connections.

Mr Johnson then briefly explored setting up a charitable trust to make the works more financially efficient, but the idea collapsed as the flat was a private space.

The PM’s property portfolio also appears to have shrunk in recent years.

While divorce proceedings with Ms Wheeler, his second wife, were underway in 2019, the pair sold their Islington townhouse for £3.35 million.

Mr Johnson then bought a house with his future wife Carrie Symonds in Camberwell, south London, for £1.2 million.

His other properties are his Grade II cottage in Oxfordshire, which is now rented out for £4,250 a month, and a 20 per cent share of the Johnson family home in Exmoor.

The Conservative party has received almost £18m in donations from 154 donors with property interests since Boris Johnson became UK prime minister two years ago, according to Financial Times analysis.

“Build, build, build” – Owl

Kadhim Shubber, Jim Pickard and Max Harlow www.ft.com 

The donations made by individuals and companies in the property sector — which account for a quarter of total donations made to the Tory party since July 2019 — come as Johnson pushes ahead with a contentious liberalisation of England’s planning system which critics say could benefit housing developers.

An FT analysis of data published by the Electoral Commission, the UK watchdog for election and party finance, found that at least £17.9m has been given to the Conservative party from property sector donors since July 24, 2019 — when Johnson entered Downing Street. The analysis includes all company donors and those who have given over £100,000 but excludes hundreds of individuals who gave smaller amounts, meaning the true figure could be higher.

Annual property sector donations to the Conservative party under Johnson’s predecessors — Theresa May and David Cameron — ranged from 4 per cent to 12 per cent of the party’s income in the years 2010 to 2018, according to Transparency International UK. The majority of the party’s income comes from donations.

The new FT analysis of donations includes property developers, financiers and investors, as well as hotel tycoons and residential care home developers and operators.

The most generous property donor since Johnson took power in 2019 was Sir Tony Gallagher, the billionaire property developer, who has given £1.5m through his company Countywide Developments. Gallagher was knighted in 2020 for services to land development and property. Gallagher Developments did not respond to a request for comment.

Steve Morgan, former chair of Redrow, one of the UK’s biggest housebuilders, gave £1.25m through Bridgemere UK PLC, his development and investment group. The group is controlled by a Morgan family trust.

On its website Bridgemere says it owns the single biggest stake in Redrow but does not itself do any “direct residential development in the UK”.

Ashley Lewis, Bridgemere’s finance director, said: “The Bridgemere donation to the Conservative party has nothing whatsoever to do with any possible changes to the planning system or any government policy.” He added that any suggestion to the contrary would be false.

The third biggest donor was John Stuart Bloor — owner of Bloor Homes, one of the biggest private housebuilders in the UK — who has donated £1.1m through his JS Bloor Services and Bloor Holdings entities.

A £150,000 donation in March this year by Bloor Holdings was made just 48 hours after a government minister approved a controversial housing scheme for his company, the Sunday Times recently revealed.

Bloor said: “I have never met Boris Johnson, or spoken to him or his ministers, neither have I employed lobbyists. We donate money to the Conservative party and charities because we agree with their ethos of aspiration and hope for individuals and children and expect nothing in return for these donations.”

Many Tory MPs want Boris Johnson to reconsider planning reforms, which many of them see as being to blame for their by-election defeat by the Liberal Democrats in Chesham & Amersham in June © Charlie Bibby/FT

Johnson has said he wants to “transform the sclerotic planning system” by forcing all councils to rewrite their local development plans, changes he hopes will encourage the development of 300,000 new homes every year.

However, many Tory MPs want him to reconsider the reforms, which they blame for the dramatic by-election defeat by the Liberal Democrats in Chesham & Amersham in June. Tory MP Roger Gale has called the planning bill a “developer’s charter”. 

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said: “It will come as a shock to nobody that the very same developers who have the most to gain out of these reforms are piling money into the Tory party.”

Daniel Bruce, chief executive of Transparency International, added that the government needed to show “no favours in policymaking” to those who make political donations. 

“It is clear that the current party of government increasingly relies on a relatively small number of wealthy backers often with substantial interests in the property market. This unhealthy dependence . . . increases the risk of policy becoming captured — putting the interests of donors ahead of the public.”

A Conservative party spokesman said: “Government policy is in no way influenced by donations the party receives. They are entirely separate.”

One senior Tory went further, suggesting that some of the government’s policies were unlikely to be welcomed by the property sector. “If you look at what the Tory party is doing at the moment the property industry are not exactly fans of them, stuff like not allowing you to turn out tenants if they’re not paying rent during the pandemic,” the senior Tory said.

Covid “gravy train” keeps growing – Owl

David Conn www.theguardian.com 

Dominic Cummings personally called a former colleague on the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and asked if his company would work for the government on its response to the Covid pandemic, leading to the award of a £580,000 Cabinet Office contract with no competitive process.

In an email on 20 March 2020, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser asked the most senior civil servant responsible for contracts to sign off the budget immediately, and that if “anybody in CABOFF [the Cabinet Office] whines”, to tell them Cummings had “ordered it” from the prime minister.

The company, Hanbury Strategy, was founded by Paul Stephenson shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum, during which he worked alongside Cummings as the Vote Leave director of communications. Hanbury also worked for the Conservative party on the 2019 general election campaign, with Cummings and Ben Warner, a data specialist who worked for Vote Leave before becoming an adviser at No 10.

The contract with Hanbury, to conduct opinion polls on the public’s view of the government’s Covid response, is subject to a legal challenge by the Good Law Project (GLP), which argues that it shows “apparent bias”, particularly given the company’s close connection to Cummings and the Conservative party.

A witness statement by Cummings and other documents including internal Cabinet Office emails were made public at a court hearing last Friday. They show that concerns were expressed among civil servants that some work Hanbury did with public money, such as polling opinion on opposition politicians, including the Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, and Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, was carried out for the political advantage of the Conservative party.

On 26 May 2020, a Cabinet Office official emailed a colleague saying: “Hanbury measures attitudes towards political figures, which they shouldn’t do using government money, but they’ve been asked to and it’s a battle that I think is hard to fight.”

Cummings said in his witness statement that “my expert opinion” was that Hanbury would provide world-class polling work, and was the only firm who could do what was needed, start immediately and “we can trust to give their all and be honest”.

Cummings said that, on Sunday 15 March 2020, “I called many people to ask for help – epidemiologists, project managers etc. I also asked Paul Stephenson, a partner at Hanbury, if he would help with polling, data collection and modelling.”

Stephenson said they could start straight away. Cummings said in his statement: “Following my call to Paul Stephenson … I requested that Hanbury be engaged urgently to start conducting frequent large-scale polls immediately.”

On 20 March, Cummings emailed Alex Aiken, the head of government communications at the Cabinet Office, saying: “URGENT: Alex pls sign off immediately budget so Paul S can get out our large scale polls into field TODAY. Anybody in CABOFF whines tell them I ordered it from PM [OFFICIAL].”

Normal legal requirements for government contracts to be opened out to a full competitive tender were suspended due to the emergency of the pandemic, and the contract was directly awarded to Hanbury.

In a similar judicial review challenge to a direct contract – awarded to Public First, a research company with longstanding connections to Cummings – Mrs Justice O’Farrell ruled in GLP’s favour in June, saying that even in the pandemic the government should have conducted an exercise to consider other potential companies.

Aiken said in his witness statement that Cummings’ email was not “an instruction to me or my team to appoint Hanbury … this was purely an idea we were being asked to consider and I have pushed back on such requests before”. Aiken said he decided to hire Hanbury after it provided a good proposal for opinion polling, and its work was of high quality which had “left a legacy” for Cabinet Office opinion polling.

He said he would have preferred the questions about Starmer and Khan not to have been asked, but explained it was not to seek political advantage; they were testing an idea for joint press conferences with government ministers, and to “benchmark” the credibility of government spokespeople. It was “well-intentioned but ill-considered”, Aiken said. Cummings also said that polling was to see if the politicians “could help public health communication, it had no political purpose of any kind”.

A Hanbury spokesperson said the company agreed to do the work “at extremely short notice” although it involved reputational risk.

They said: “Our work contributed to what was a hugely successful public health communications campaign which undoubtedly prevented many deaths. For that reason, if we had to make the choice again we would still agree to step up and help in this time of crisis.”

The Cabinet Office has appealed against the judgment in the Public First case, and is also defending the GLP’s challenge to the Hanbury contract, arguing it was awarded lawfully.

A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “In response to an unprecedented global pandemic, the government acted with urgency to undertake vital research into public attitudes and behaviours. This research shaped crucial public health messages, helping us to protect the NHS and save lives.”

One has to conclude that there must still be a high level of Covid in circulation. – Owl

The number of self-isolation alerts sent by the NHS Covid-19 app in England and Wales has risen to a new record of 689,313 in the week up to 21 July.

BBC News www.bbc.co.uk

The figures represent an increase of over 70,000 compared with the previous week.

But the rate of increase was lower than the previous week, rising by 11% compared to 17%.

If you are “pinged” by the app you are advised – but not legally obliged – to self-isolate for 10 days.

However the government has said it is crucial for people to do so.

In recent weeks, there has been widespread criticism that the app has been sending out so many alerts that hundreds of thousands of people are self-isolating and missing work, causing widespread disruption.

It led to the government allowing some key workers – such as those working in food distribution – to be exempt from having to self-isolate if pinged. Instead they have to take daily tests.

There are currently 260 testing sites open for these workers, Downing Street said on Thursday – and they are working to set up another 800. After that, 1,200 more sites will be opened “over the coming days”.

From 16 August, all fully-vaccinated people will not need to self-isolate if pinged by the app, although they will be encouraged to book a Covid PCR test.

The impact on businesses has resulted in calls for the 16 August deadline to be brought forward.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders is asking for urgent assistance to exempt staff pinged by the NHS Covid app saying pings are affecting production.

Many in the hospitality industry also complained of shortages as staff had to self-isolate. Some bar staff have told the BBC that they’ve lost a lot of money by missing shifts, while others say they have been told to delete the app by their manager.

The app alert is advisory only and not enforceable by law, unlike a phone call from the NHS Test and Trace team.

Latest data from Test and Trace shows that 14% of cases transferred to contact-tracers in the week to 21 July were not reached and so were unable to provide details of close contacts.

This is the highest proportion of people not reached since October last year.

England’s deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van Tam said separate figures from Public Health England showed the vaccines have now prevented 22 million Covid cases and 60,000 deaths. He added it was “truly massive”.

If you were looking for evidence that the “pingdemic” is over you will struggle to find it in these statistics. The figure of nearly 690,000 contact tracing alerts – or pings – is a new record, up 11% on the previous week. They were triggered by nearly 148,000 positive test results entered in the app, up 25%.

Despite the anecdotal evidence of people switching off or getting rid of the app, there is no sign yet of mass deletions.

But there are a few straws in the wind suggesting things might be changing. The rate of increase in pings slowed, and the number of alerts triggered by each positive test result was down. That suggests that people who later became infected had fewer close contacts – either because they were socialising less or because those they encountered did not have the app.

In the week when restrictions in England were relaxed so that venues did not need to record visitors’ details, check-ins via the app were sharply lower.

As they find they don’t need it to check in, more people may decide the app is more trouble than it’s worth.

But the team which designed it believes the NHS Covid-19 app is changing behaviour in useful ways – even if someone ignores a ping’s instruction to self isolate they may become more cautious, and anyone who has a holiday planned may be nudged into staying at home for a few days beforehand rather than having their plans spoiled by an alert.

At first, it was criticised for being ineffective, in recent weeks it’s been accused of disrupting thousands of businesses, but its designers believe this experimental technology is finally proving that it can be a useful weapon in controlling the pandemic.

After a week of falling cases the number of people testing positive for coronavirus rose on Wednesday, when 27,734 new daily cases were reported.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: “The truth is, when it comes to case numbers no one really knows where they are going to go next”.

This must be in addition to the 150 jobs expected for the Ada Lovelace building started in February 2020 (100 jobs). Yet there is still room for the 300 space car park. – Owl

Chloe Parkman http://www.devonlive.com

Exeter Science Park’s new £5m ‘Grow-Out’ building is set to house up to 100 jobs in Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths and Medicine sectors (STEMM), helping to drive the South West’s economic recovery post-Covid.

Funding for the £5m project, which is due to for completion in November, was secured in August 2020, from the Government’s ‘Getting Building Fund’ and allocated to Exeter Science Park by the Heart of the South West Local Enterprise Partnership (HotSW LEP) from their £35.4 million share of the national pot.

The 14,000 sq ft building has been designed to provide flexible office and laboratory space for up to 11 firms. It will be net-zero carbon for operational energy and BREEAM Excellent, a method used to assess its sustainability.

Construction work began at the Park just five months ago and the project has seen the fastest turnaround of any building scheme undertaken there.

Dr Sally Basker, CEO of Exeter Science Park, said: “Getting to this point has required outstanding collaboration.

“Everyone has played their part and the hard work of colleagues at Exeter Science Park, Morgan Sindall, NPS South West Limited and the Southern Construction Framework, has really made this happen.

“This quick turnaround has seen us save up to 33% of the time involved, compared to a conventional build programme.

“Exeter Science Park helps innovative STEMM companies to deliver extraordinary growth and these are exactly the kinds of businesses that will help accelerate economic recovery and drive the economy forward as we emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.

It was one of the first Getting Building Fund projects to begin construction in the area and this was made possible thanks to collaboration between client, consultants, contractors and designers.

Within a few months of funding being secured, detailed designs were drawn up, a planning application submitted and contractor Morgan Sindall procured through the Southern Construction Framework and appointed in October 2020.

Nearly three quarters of the men and women involved during the construction phase are from the Greater Exeter area.

Brian Rice, Morgan Sindall Construction Area Director, said: “The Grow-Out Space will provide a place for innovation-led businesses to thrive. Its design and unerring focus on sustainability sets a new precedent for the standards fast-growing companies can expect.

“As with all of our schemes, we have looked to boost the regional economy by routing work through the local supply chain wherever possible.

“Our team and project partners have worked collaboratively and tirelessly to ensure this project is delivered quickly. The Southern Construction Framework has been a key enabler; working with Exeter Science Park to reduce lead times significantly.

“We’re excited to see this key asset for the region’s knowledge economy coming to life and to mark this topping out milestone on schedule.”

David Ralph, Chief Executive of the Heart of the South West Local Enterprise Partnership, said: “It’s fantastic to see this innovative new facility preparing to open at Exeter Science Park.

“It will provide valuable innovation space for STEMM businesses, supporting them to grow and boosting employment for the city and region.

“We’re delighted to support it with funding from HotSW LEP’s Getting Building Fund. Exeter Science Park is a thriving business location and has an important role to play as we look to rebuild local economies and build back better with a cleaner and more inclusive economy.”

Minister for Regional Growth and Local Government, Luke Hall MP, said : “I’m delighted that £5 million Government investment has helped the construction of the Exeter Science Park Grow-out Building.

“By creating up to 100 new jobs and helping to attract further investment, this project will support the long-term prosperity of Devon and bring many opportunities to the community.”

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The Grow-out Building 3 has been designed by architects LHC Design, working for NPS South West Property Consultants, and procured using the Southern Construction Framework.

Morgan Sindall Construction’s supply chain includes own design team includes Grainge Architects, SDS mechanical & engineering consultants, and structural engineer Clarke Bond.

Exeter Science Park Limited is the Park developer and has four shareholders: Devon County Council, the University of Exeter, East Devon District Council and Exeter City Council.

East Devon District Council (EDDC) could be preventing rugby stars of the future from achieving their potential because new houses in the area are too small.

Joe Ives, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

A councillor leading a campaign to make East Devon homes larger, Councillor Peter Faithful, also fears for the future of basketball players.

The independent councillor for Ottery St Mary told a council meeting: “With younger residents getting taller by the year I feel it is our duty to build residential units large enough for the next generation to live in. 

“If we want to support our rugby players and our basketball players the least we can offer is rooms large enough for them to live in.”

So he’s proposed a motion so that will stop housebuilders cramming as many dwellings as possible on new developments, leading to homes too small for comfort.

Cllr Faithfull said that because of a lack of a policy, the council can’t reject residential planning applications based on size. And he argued that landlords take advantage by building more homes than there is space for, in the interests of profitability.

Cllr Faithful said: “Within my own ward I know of three applications which should have been rejected due to them being under the nationally recognised size.”

In 2015 the government published space standards but left it to councils to enforce them through policies in their local plans.

Despite attempts by some members of the council, no action has yet been taken in East Devon to put these standards in place.

With 41 votes in favour, the motion was recommended for approval to officers. This temporary decision-making framework was launched on Monday after the council decided to make its meetings virtual again because of fears over current covid risks. For the time being,  senior East Devon Council officers now have to rubber-stamp councillor’s recommendations.

Councillor Mike Allen (Conservative, Honiton St. Michael’s), who supported the motion, said lack of action had resulted in some houses being built to substandard sizes, something, he argues, “should never have happened.” 

Seconding the motion, Councillor Vicky Johns (Independent Progressive Group, Ottery St Mary)  said: “It’s a shame that developers do get away with doing this kind of thing and hopefully if we do put the policy place it will nip in the bud.”

But Councillor Faithfull’s worries for the future of British sport if East Devon District Council keeps allowing small homes may be mitigated now that the motion is agreed. The council will seek to implement the national space standards as part of its updated local plan (2021-2040) which is currently being drafted.

A number of beach-goers have been pictured sitting directly under East Devon’s crumbling cliffs, despite an enormous sign warning them of the potential dangers.

Chloe Parkman www.devonlive.com (see online article for photo)

The photograph was taken last week near Sandy Bay as many people across the county raced to the coast in order to take advantage of the heatwave.

Beaches across the county were packed full as temperatures hit highs of around 30C in some areas of Devon.

The image which shows the beach-goers located right next to a yellow sign which reads: “DANGER – beware of falling rocks” has sparked upset in local residents to the area.

Following the scene, eye-witness Raymond Loades, said: “[This happened] at Sandy Bay Wednesday (July, 21).]

“Having seen this every time we go there for the last five or six years I felt it was time to try and get something done as when I usually point out what the notice says, the majority of the replies are unprintable.”

Raymond says that he posted the image on a local community Facebook page, raising awareness regarding the unstable cliffs.

In response to the photograph, one person wrote: “If people can’t read a simple notice surely we should leave them to the consequences. Maybe a lucky day.”

Another said: “That buggy right near the danger sign is a shocker too!”

Over the course of the year there have been a number of cliff falls along along East Devon’s coastline, particularly in Sidmouth.

DevonLive has reported on numerous cliff falls in Sidmouth, with four taking place last month alone.

A spokesperson for East Devon District Council said: “Cliff falls are a natural and unpredictable occurrence along the East Devon coast, this is because the rock from which the cliffs are formed is soft and therefore prone to rock falls and landslides, which can happen at any time, although heavy rainfall can trigger incidences.

“East Devon’s cliffs are a key part of the scenery that attracts visitors to the area, however the cliffs pose a very real danger and caution must be exercised when visiting them.

“Rock falls and landslides are unpredictable events, occurring without warning, and can cause serious injury or death.

“Warning signs can be found in areas managed by us.

“The absence of a sign does not indicate there is no risk and you should always take care around the cliffs of East Devon as all are made of soft rock and pose a cliff fall danger.

“Heavy rainfall can trigger cliff falls – but cliff falls are a normal occurrence along the East Devon coastline.

“It is good practice when on the beach to stay well clear of the cliff base and to keep an eye out for fresh fall material or water running down the cliffs, which may indicate an area that is weakened and loose. If in doubt, don’t walk under or near the cliffs.

“The Coastguard advises that beach users stay at least the height of the cliff away. For example, if a cliff is 20 metres high, a distance of 20 metres should be kept.

“If a cliff fall does occur and you suspect that someone has been injured, call 999 immediately.

“Do not explore recent cliff falls as there is a risk of further falls. A comprehensive guide to staying safe around beaches and cliffs is available from the Coastguard.

“We complete annual cliff inspections at sites we believe pose a risk in our land ownership/area of responsibility.

“This includes sites at Beer, Budleigh Salterton, Seaton and Sidmouth, as well as an inland cliff site in Exmouth at Plantation Walk.

“These inspections include removing loose material and additional safety works such as installation of rock netting.

“If you notice a recent cliff fall or any issues with our stabilisation interventions at any of the above locations, please get in touch with our Customer Service Centre.

“While this work aims to reduce the risk of incidents, we cannot guarantee incidents will not occur at these locations.

“We therefore recommend that where possible, you enjoy the cliffs from a distance and do not climb or sit directly beneath them.”

[Owl received eyewitness reports of a cliff fall in Budleigh a week ago towards Sandy Bay]

(Which has become even more progressive, see below – Owl)

A view from East Devon Council Leader Paul Arnott (Exmouth Journal and sister publications)

It seems to happen every year, a period of scorchingly hot weather followed by a roof-leak-causing deluge. So often, August then turns out to be an absolute bust until, just as all hope is almost lost, September proves itself yet again to be the greatest month.

So keep the faith, East Devonian. I suspect we’ll all need our brollies in the coming weeks, but it is far from over. Revival is always just around the corner. Which brings me, with an inelegant crashing of the gears, to the politics of East Devon.

Now, despite being Leader of the council, I do try to spare this newspaper’s readers from too much of the hard stuff politically. Any local, or indeed national politician, with a decent nose is aware that most people mainly want to pay their taxes and see the services they have been promised being delivered. Local politics can be alienating.

However, East Devonian, you are a more interesting lot than that. A few months ago after the county council elections I bored you with the fact that the Conservatives had taken something over 22,000 votes across our district (yet took 10 seats at county) while the non-Conservatives managed around 29,000 votes (for two seats as it happens. Something awry there.)

What this suggests is that the old adage that you could put a blue rosette on a donkey in East Devon and it would get elected is not the sure proposition of yore. However, to turn what is clearly an interesting and probably centrist electorate – with a strong inclination to support social housing/the NHS/progressive social attitudes – the non-Tories need to get their act together. Now, I am not claiming that the cavalry is coming over the hill, but perhaps I can hear the sound of distant hooves. Because a few weeks ago at a by-election in Honiton a highly capable and serious young Labour councillor was elected to district, joining up with an existing Labour councillor to make two on the district council – historic.

After some friendly discussions in the following weeks, this Labour twosome decided – with permission of their party – to become part of the Democratic Alliance, the political group I lead at the council. In plain terms, their party allegiance is and will always be Labour, but their group is the Democratic Alliance.

There they now share an umbrella with my own party, the Independent East Devon Alliance, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and an excellent Independent from Exmouth.

I want to be cautious here: one swallow does not make a spring. Yes, there is a cry across the country for the non-Tory interest to show leadership rather than navel-gazing, and perhaps this example of genial co-operation presages that. People talk of “progressive alliances”, but you have to be careful there.

I can already imagine the twitching, Twitter fingers of some of the more febrile local Tories barking out that “I always said Arnott was worse than Corbyn”. I fully expect the accusation that because we have embraced two highly talented young councillors wearing the Labour badge then we are rolling out the bright red carpet to Russian tanks and Chinese cyber-warriors.

However, on Monday this week progressive thought bore its first fruit. The Tories reflexively opposed the eminently sensible proposal – their own government having betrayed their promise to legislate for this – to return to Zoom meetings, just until January. Despite the Tories’ Johnsonian rhetoric on behalf of the Me First party, all the other councillors present voted in the interest of staff and member safety to return to Zoom. This calm decision is greatly to the credit of our new council chair, Ian Thomas, and the officers who helped him with the legalities. Parish and Town Councils of East Devon, take note … could you do the same?

A sensible solution to a huge problem – that’s what a progressive alliance can enable.

[Owl notes from the EDDC website that Cllr Paul Millar is now the other Labour councillor referred to above.]