Go to the pub, but don’t come into contact with other people. Only meet in groups of six, but also sit in a restaurant with 30 other diners. Go to your office, but don’t go by public transport. Listen to the scientists, except when we’re ignoring them. Relax. Under no circumstances should you relax.

Imogen West-Knights www.theguardian.com 

It is sometimes difficult, in the face of such mixed messages from the government, to resist the urge to crescendo directly into a full-throated scream on getting out of bed in the morning.

The government has an unenviable job in dealing with coronavirus, as the situation changes from day to day, but other governments have undoubtedly done it better. According to a June YouGov poll of 27 countries, Britons had the second lowest level of confidence in their government’s handling of the pandemic.

The level of trust in those making the decisions dictates whether or not people will follow their advice – so this is a pretty huge problem. Part of it is that the decision-making has seemed so erratic and opaque. Rules and advice are issued after balancing priorities and risks, but the fact that the government’s process is never made clear makes you wonder whose priorities are being valued over others’.

Getting children back to school means a risk of increased infections, so we need to limit people’s contact elsewhere, for instance in domestic social settings. This we can understand and get on board with. However, when the government pushes to get people back in the office to appease commercial landlords, and then offsets that risk by, for instance, banning your birthday picnic, it feels like being kicked while you’re down.

Then there are the times it has flagrantly revealed that there is one rule for them, and another for the rest of us. First there was Dominic Cummings’ tour of the north-east during lockdown. Now, groups larger than six aren’t allowed to meet, unless you happen to be running around in a special little costume shooting at birds for fun – which just happens to be very popular in Rishi Sunak’s Yorkshire constituency.

People have a knack of remembering past events and making their own judgments. The government can’t go from having said that nobody should leave their homes when the infection rates were rocketing in April to saying that you should get on a packed train to engineer a reunion with your colleagues’ coffee breath when the infection rates are climbing again at a similar rate. If it was dangerous then, it’s dangerous now.

To calm these fears, the government is constantly rummaging in the hat for a new rabbit to present as the magic trick to end the pandemic. The latest is Operation Moonshot, the patently bonkers idea that we are going to be able to deploy between 2m and 4m tests per day by December, and 10m by early 2021.

“It should be possible,” Johnson said last week, “to deploy these tests on a far bigger scale than any country has yet achieved.” I’m not sure what part of the last six months gives anybody in the government confidence that this “should be possible”. Under our existing testing programme, it’s difficult to get a coronavirus test any closer than Belgium – and if you’re lucky enough to have had one, there is currently a backlog of 185,000 swabs to be processed.

Before Operation Moonshot, there were the proposed immunity passports, despite the fact that scientists didn’t know how immunity to coronavirus even worked, the tracing apps that have yet to materialise, and the Covid risk monitoring system that sank without trace.

There is, of course, a delicate balancing act to achieve between stopping the economy from completely tanking, allowing people some small freedoms and protecting the most vulnerable among us from unnecessary danger. But scattergun messaging isn’t getting us anywhere, except knee-deep in the worst recession of all the G7 nations and unforgivably high death tolls. If the advice from the government continues to be this conflicting, the easiest thing for people to do will be to trust their own instincts to protect those around them.

• Imogen West-Knights is a writer and journalist based in London

When Covid-19 struck Europe, Lombardy’s flooded hospitals and spiralling death toll provided a grim template for Italy’s neighbours. In the past weeks, however, it is offering a more upbeat, alternative path: while Spain, France and the UK are experiencing a second surge in infections after loosening lockdown restrictions, Italy has kept the disease under control.

Miles Johnson and Davide Ghiglione in Rome, John Burn-Murdoch in London www.ft.co

New daily cases are on the rise to 1,535 from the low hundreds in June, when restrictions started easing. But this compares with over 10,000 new cases in Spain and France. Life feels normal in most of Italy: restaurants and bars are open, people enjoy late-summer trips to the beach and children have returned to school.

Experts highlight three main reasons for Italy’s resilience.

First-mover advantage

For Fabrizio Pregliasco, a virologist at the University of Milan, “Italy is in a better situation than other countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain or France because we were among the first in the world to face the Covid hurricane.” Its health system and government have had more time to plan its post-lockdown response and the lifting of restrictions have been relaxed more gradually, allowing the government greater agility in reintroducing restrictions when needed.

Prime minister Giuseppe Conte has kept on reminding Italians to remain vigilant. Under Italy’s Covid-19 state of emergency he has the power to rule by decree, meaning his government was able to react swiftly to an uptick in new cases over the summer. By contrast, Spain’s state of alert, which granted the central government emergency powers over the regions, lapsed on June 21.

In August, Rome ordered a closure of discos and introduced a rule that face masks must be worn in all crowded places between 6pm and 6am. The measures, which were initially in place for a month, were extended for a further 30 days in early September. 

High public compliance and stricter enforcement

Public health officials cite the high public acceptance of restrictions, such as compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport. Visitors to bars and restaurants must write down their names and numbers, a measure largely complied with during the summer.

According to a survey conducted by Imperial College London, 84 per cent of Italians surveyed said they would be “very or quite willing” to wear a face mask advised to by their government. This compares to 76 per cent in the UK.

Those in breach of rules are punished. In late August, Italian media reported that a 29-year-old man was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask near Rome’s Trevi fountain and telling the officers that “Covid doesn’t exist”.

On Monday alone police checked 50,602 people and 4,939 businesses, sanctioning 227 individuals and ordering the closure of three companies.

“Italians are more respectful of the measures of social distancing and against the transmission of the virus, even in the smallest commercial activity all measures are observed very scrupulously,” said Andrea Crisanti, a professor of microbiology at the university of Padua.

Individual behaviour, although hard to quantify, has played an important role, said Ferdiando Luca Lorini, director of intensive care at a hospital in Bergamo.

“We have gone from the most affected country to one of the virtuous countries in the management of the pandemic thanks to the clarity of the rules from the very beginning, and the willingness of everyone to respect them,” he said.

Effective testing and monitoring

Andrea Crisanti, professor of microbiology at the University of Padua, said the public health response has focused on not just mass testing but also effective surveillance of cases to track and trace anyone who has come into contact with an infected person.

About 2 per cent of tests give a positive result, compared with about 13 per cent of tests performed in Spain, suggesting the virus is way more widespread in the latter. 

“Once there is a positive we test all those who may have come into contact with them. The real problem of the epidemic are the cases with no symptoms, if you do not intercept these, you do not come out of it,” he said.

In August, when Sardinia, a popular holiday destinations for Italians, emerged as a hotspot for the virus — former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and Formula One boss Flavio Briatore both contracted the virus on the island — authorities introduced drive-through testing at the port of Civitavecchia on the mainland where ferries shuttle holidaymakers to and from the island. Positive cases were isolated more quickly, preventing the outbreak in Sardinia from spreading to other regions.

While few want to tempt fate ahead of winter, there is confidence that Italy’s efforts can continue to keep the virus under control.

“If Italians, who have been very diligent so far with regard to all the measures, keep holding on then we should be able to manage the situation and get used to coexisting with the problem until a vaccine arrives,” said Mr Pregliasco.

Additional reporting by Daniel Dombey in Madrid, Adrienne Klasa in London and Victor Mallet in Paris

Fightback against rise in Covid cases thrashed out at No 10 summit

[A companion piece to https://eastdevonwatch.org/2020/09/22/follow-the-science-but-which-science-do-you-follow/%5D

Deep into Sunday night, a debate was playing out in the heart of Downing Street. The prime minister had gathered the UK’s most eminent scientists – and was learning that “follow the science” is not as simple as it sounds.

Severin Carrell www.theguardian.com

After more than a week of worrying news, with cases rising dramatically across the UK, some of the scientists at the late-night summit were in fierce disagreement over what to do.

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, held a summit of scientists from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to help thrash out how to proceed.

Among those also present were two Oxford University figures – Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, and Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine.

Heneghan and Gupta have voiced caution over blanket, nationwide lockdown measures and are understood to feel strongly about the presentation of data on rising cases. They have argued for more targeted measures to protect the vulnerable, such as in care homes, so that new measures do not affect those younger people who are least at risk.

There was some controversy over data showing an exponential increase in cases, such as the one showing a jump from 6,000 a day now to 50,000 in mid-October, which could lead to 200 deaths a day by the following month.

Predictably, when it was presented at the media briefing by England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser – who stressed it was not a forecast – it was this slide that created the headlines.

A Downing Street source said the prime minister had wanted to hear “a wide range of views” from scientists and other experts.

Heneghen and Gupta have since written an open letter to the prime minister and to Whitty and Vallance to try to persuade them to change course – and to impose more targeted measures to contain the virus.

The measures expected to be announced on Tuesday – to close pubs and restaurants at 10pm and limit service to tables only – are softer than had previously been predicted or advised. Over the weekend, a source in one of the devolved administrations said there was also a concerted push from health officials to “move hard and fast: do it now and do it hard”.

That response led to some pushback from the Treasury, according to several sources, amid concern that businesses and industry had no buffer to absorb any further impact. “The economy is in a very different place to March,” one Whitehall source said. The source stressed that did not mean economic advisers had told No 10 not to act.

Leaked advice to the Scottish government laid out proposed plans for a so-called “circuit breaker” lockdown – two weeks of more severe measures – which for now appear to have been rejected by the prime minister.

Written by Scottish government officials last Saturday, based on advice given by Sage scientists who cover the whole UK, it also suggests a “rolling lockdown” for different parts of Scotland linked to October’s half-term holidays, including travel restrictions, closing play parks and shutting down hairdressers.

The measures were revealed in a leaked document marked “official sensitive”, which suggested a “general message” that people should again stay at home except for essential shopping and exercise and also avoid public transport.

At the weekend a flurry of telephone briefings took place to discuss the strategy, including a cabinet phone briefing with Whitty and Vallance on Saturday, as well as the chief economic adviser Claire Lombardelli.

The strategy was finally signed off at a Covid strategy committee meeting, involving Johnson, Sunak and Matt Hancock, the health secretary. The prime minister then briefed the heads of devolved administrations, who will join a Cobra meeting on Tuesday.

Labour officials had to scramble to respond. Keir Starmer’s keynote conference speech in Doncaster on Tuesday was hastily brought forward by two hours after the prime minister said he would make a statement to MPs in the House of Commons on Tuesday, so the Labour leader could be back in London in time to respond.

Covid UK: scientists at loggerheads over approach to new restrictions

Rival groups of scientists are at loggerheads over how government should handle the Covid pandemic, with one advising that only over-65s and the vulnerable should be shielded, while the other backs nationwide measures.

Sarah Boseley www.theguardian.com 

The conflicting advice to the UK government and chief medical officers (CMOs) came in two open letters issued on Monday by the rival camps.

It came as Prof Chris Whitty, England’s CMO, and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance made a national TV broadcast to set out the risk of the virus spreading exponentially, with a corresponding increase in cases and deaths, if public behaviour does not change.

Thirty-two scientists signed one letter [including Professor Louise Allen; Professor of Geriatric  Medicine, University of Exeter – Owl] warning the government is heading down the wrong road and must reconsider its policy to suppress the virus, adopting a targeted approach instead.

Prof Sunetra Gupta and Prof Carl Heneghan from Oxford University, Prof Karol Sikora from Buckingham and Sam Williams of the consultancy Economic Insight issued their warning, with 28 other signatories, to the prime minister, chancellor and the UK’s four CMOs.

Support for the CMOs and Vallance, who appear to be advocating greater restrictions, came from a letter signed by second group of scientists, headed by Trisha Greenhalgh at Oxford University and backed by 22 others.

“We strongly support your continuing efforts to suppress the virus across the entire population,” they say, in what will be seen as a rebuttal of Gupta and colleagues. Segmenting the population and shielding the elderly until herd immunity has developed will not work, they add.

The two stances underline a schism within the scientific community over how to tackle the second wave of coronavirus in the UK.

The Gupta-Heneghan-Sikora letter warned that imposing lockdowns and restrictions wherever case numbers rise and potentially across the whole of the country is “leading to significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits”.

“The existing policy path is inconsistent with the known risk-profile of Covid-19 and should be reconsidered. The unstated objective currently appears to be one of suppression of the virus, until such a time that a vaccine can be deployed. This objective is increasingly unfeasible,” they add.

Gupta and colleagues say we should think beyond coronavirus, taking account of the deaths that will occur from other causes because people are too anxious to go to their doctor or the NHS cannot treat them. And we should think about the economic and social impact of lockdowns. “Blanket Covid policy interventions likely have large costs, because any adverse effects impact the entire population,” they say.

Asked what would be an acceptable level of Covid deaths under this scenario, Williams said: “That’s not so much how we would think about it.” There were avoidable deaths from other causes during the lockdown. “You have to be quite sure you are going to save lives if you take measures that will cost them,” he said.

They say the focus on case numbers and the R number (showing the rate of infection) is wrong and they are subject to interpretation, with outcomes mattering, not case counts.

Deaths are mostly in the older population: 89% are in the over-65s and 95% in people with pre-existing medical conditions. “The harm caused by uniform policies (that apply to all persons) will outweigh the benefits,” they write.

Those at risk should be told, so that they can make their own decision about their safety. “Give the public honest and objective information about the risks they face,” Williams said. Instead, the dangers for everyone had been talked up, making people with low risk factors more scared than they should be.

The second letter, from Greenhalgh and colleagues, says that deaths and severe illness have occurred in all age groups. They argue that “long Covid” – extended and debilitating illness – has affected tens of thousands of people in the UK, many of them young.

They say it is not practical to cut off a cohort of vulnerable people from the rest in an open society “especially for disadvantaged groups (e.g. those living in cramped housing and multi-generational households). Many grandparents are looking after children sent home from school while parents are at work.”

They share the desire of the public to return to “normality”, but it must be balanced with variable restrictions to control the virus “which respond to the day-to-day and week-to-week changes in cases. “Normality” is likely to be a compromise for some time to come.

Some of the authors are members of Independent Sage, a group that established itself because of concerns over the transparency of the government’s own scientific advisory committee on epidemics, which is chaired by Whitty and Vallance.

The science itself cannot be definitive, they acknowledge. “Whilst it is always helpful to have more data and more evidence, we caution that in this complex and fast-moving pandemic, certainty is likely to remain elusive.

“A research finding that is declared ‘best evidence’ or ‘robust evidence’ by one expert will be considered marginal or flawed by another expert. It is more important than ever to consider multiple perspectives on the issues and encourage interdisciplinary debate and peer review,” they say.

Downing Street is in the grip of a groupthink that delegitimises independent voices. The country is paying a heavy price

Editorial www.theguardian.com 

The United Kingdom is facing a Covid calamity, and it is a situation that was made in Downing Street. Infections and hospital admissions are rising rapidly. An exponentially growing epidemic is outpacing the rate at which the testing regime is expanding, meaning that it is not possible to properly track the spread of the disease. If nothing changes, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, warned on Monday, there could be 200 deaths a day by mid-November.

It is clear that transmission of the disease through the population needs to be stopped. This might not require a nationwide lockdown, where schools and workplaces are closed. However, stringent measures ought to come into force across the country, alongside a clear strategy to rebuild the test and trace system. Boris Johnson needs to move decisively to contain the risk. There will be a balance to strike. Dilemmas such as the tension between reducing social contact and continuing economic life are not easy to resolve. But the lesson from earlier this year was that in a pandemic it’s best to move fast.

The trouble is that Britain has the wrong government for the Covid era. Boris Johnson has not yet shown that he can weigh the seriousness of the situation and act appropriately. He let events spin out of control, because he believed he could spin his way out of the problem. All too often, the prime minister has overpromised and underdelivered – if he delivered at all. Mr Johnson is unwilling to take responsibility for his missteps during the pandemic. His psychological strategy is to avoid admitting fault. This has led him to snub the checks and balances designed to ensure that the British state learns from experience to improve services. The idea is to update views to take better decisions in future.

Mr Johnson prefers non-accountability in government policy. Parliament has been sidelined during the pandemic. Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, is right to insist that further Covid restrictions be debated – and voted on – in the Commons. The prime minister will probably resist this move, and he will be wrong to do so. Parliament can give the public a window on why the government acts as it does. Mr Johnson sees little value in this. He wants the public to face punitive fines for breaking lockdown while his chief adviser smirks that he did so earlier this year to test his eyesight.

Downing Street is in the grip of a groupthink that delegitimises independent voices. The clearout at the top of the civil service is part of that. What Mr Johnson seems to run is a gang rather than a government. He does not appoint people for competence but loyalty. This promotes an us-versus-them worldview. Dido Harding, the businesswoman and Conservative party peer who failed to get the test and trace system running effectively, has been picked to run Mr Johnson’s new public health system. Her qualification is that she will defend incompetence by blaming the public. Labour’s Lord Falconer calls it a “corrupting” of the constitution. He’s not wrong.

The disinformation is designed to put Downing Street above morality and the truth. There are things the country can and cannot do, and things Mr Johnson can and cannot do. The prime minister does not care that there is a difference. He tells voters that he can do anything and that the country can deliver whatever they want. He is gambling that his government will not be judged at the next election on its inept coronavirus response. It may work. Mr Johnson has reached the top by peddling half-truths. Britain’s high Covid death toll points to a set of real issues: a political culture of exceptionalism, shrivelled public services, rampant inequality and poor health. The unanimity of views in No 10 may be hard to escape, but the accumulation of blunders has led the country into a crisis.

Decision on Cranbrook town centre will have to wait

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

A meeting that was set to determine how future development for Cranbrook’s long-awaited town centre would happen has been postponed.

East Devon District Council’s Strategic Planning Committee on Wednesday were due to discuss and make a recommendation over the way in which development would come forward.

They would have been faced with two competing proposals – one from the East Devon New Community Partners and one for the council to develop its own masterplan approach – with officers advising that the Cranbrook Town Centre Masterplan SPD should be the way forward.

However, the proposals put forward by the EDNCp – who are the developers for the majority of Cranbrook and have control of the land in the town centre – were significantly amended last week.

East Devon District Council have subsequently taken the decision to postpone the scheduled meeting so that the proposed changes can be fully considered and councillors properly advised of the proposed deal and its impacts.

A new report for the Committee will now be written detailing the amended proposals from EDNCp and help Committee councillors and the community to understand the proposals that are being put forward.

Cllr Dan Ledger, the district council’s portfolio holder for Strategic Planning, said: “The council understands the need for services and facilities to be delivered in Cranbrook Town Centre as soon as possible and remains committed to moving forward with discussions as a matter of urgency.

“It’s vital however that the discussions are informed by the most up-to-date and accurate information and that the proposals to be discussed are in the public domain and discussed in an open and transparent way. This would not have been the case had the scheduled meeting gone ahead.”

WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN BUILT?

So far, more than 2,100 homes have been built in the new town in East Devon, as well as a train station, a primary school, a secondary school, a pub, and a neighbourhood centre with a general shop and a pharmacy.

THE EAST DEVON NEW COMMUNITY PARTNERS PROPOSALS

The proposal from the consortium of developers included:

• A 2,500 square metres Morrisons supermarket with an additional 1,000 square metres of retail space on Tillhouse Road (around 10 to 12 shops);
• A town square
• A nursery
• Around 350 town centre homes
• Town hall with café, meeting spaces and around 15 rentable office units (including land and around one-third of the construction costs)
• Children’s centre, youth centre and library in a single building (including land and the construction costs to the Section 106 value)
• A skate park
• Land for extra care facilities delivered by Devon County Council
• Land for a “blue light” facility to house fire, police and ambulance services
• Opportunities to provide additional retail outlets
• Public conveniences, if not built within a commercial building
• Option to purchase an acre of land to safeguard land for any additional development needs identified in the future, e.g. a leisure centre, workshops or light industrial units.

The main benefit of the EDNCp proposals is the short-term delivery of a supermarket and the additional 500sqm of commercial space beyond the S106 requirements, the report said.

It added: “The desire to see some delivery of services and facilities within the town centre is well understood and officers share this desire. The community questionnaires over the years have made it clear that the community want to see something delivered as soon as possible.

“This ambition is shared and there is no doubt that this would deliver a big short term gain for the town but in the long term the proposals would prevent the town centre from meeting the needs of the community in the future, lead to greater levels of out commuting, impact on health and wellbeing as well as the sustainability of the town.”

The report says that the EDNCp proposals provides clarity over how the Section 106 obligations for 500sqm retail space, youth facility, library, town council offices, health and wellbeing centre, extra care housing and public square are to be met, would see the early delivery of a supermarket, and the delivery of children’s day nursery, providing nursery care for under 2’s, not currently available in Cranbrook in a nursery setting.

The Cranbrook Consortium proposals for the town centre

But it says that it would see a lack of space for additional retail, business, leisure and community spaces to be provided, minimal employment opportunities for residents, and the lack of space for a leisure centre despite this being a policy requirement in the Cranbrook Plan DPD.

There would be no affordable housing, a sub-optimal location for the Health & Wellbeing centre and extra care facilities, no likely connection to district heating , no or very limited contributions towards the delivery of additional infrastructure arising from the residential development, and housing types which won’t deliver the footfall necessary in a town centre location

It would have long term impacts upon health & wellbeing of residents from having a lack of employment opportunities, facilities and services in the town, the report says.

THE MASTERPLAN APPROACH

The report to the committee had said that it was considered that the SPD offers the opportunity for the Council to take a lead on the delivery of the town centre by developing its own proposals and consulting the community on these to engage the wider community in this debate.

The work seeks to use the EDNCp proposals as a starting point by incorporating their proposals for the town centre, and would see the library, youth centre, children’s centre and blue light services provided.

But the proposal would make the remainder of town centre land available for a mixture of commercial, community and leisure uses to meet the needs of the town in the future.

The location of the extra care facility would be changed, while it may make provision for a hotel in the town, and would continue to plan for the proposed leisure centre to be provided.

Pros of the masterplan approach, the report says, would be that it would allow for the delivery of the commercial scheme of them Morrison’s supermarket, High Street shops and children’s nursery, allows for the Section 106 requirements to be located in optimal locations, and enables the future proofing of the town centre through setting aside more land for future needs while still enabling significant housing development to take place.

It would provide over 250 additional jobs to the EDNCp scheme with consequential economic benefits and retained business rates income, has the potential to deliver affordable housing, the potential to achieve connection to the district heating network, and achieves greater self-containment within the town leading to less out commuting, more sustainable journeys and better health and wellbeing outcomes.

But as the land is not owned by East Devon District Council, it would be uncertain how this could be viably delivered, and the delivery of the full suite of existing town centre S106 obligations would be subject to EDNCp proceeding to reach 3,450 occupations or delivery of these being negotiated in any land deal.

The report added: “A significant concern with pursuing an SPD to deliver the indicative masterplan or something similar is how it could be delivered. The land within the town centre is understood to be entirely controlled by Hallam Land and negotiations to date have indicated that they would only be willing to sell land within the town centre at residential land values even though there is no planning policy basis for valuing all of the town centre land on this basis.”

WHAT DID CONSULTEES SAY?

The Cranbrook Strategic Delivery Board had said they were in favour of pursuing the delivery of the Consortium proposals and does not support the SPD/Masterplan proposal;

Fewer affordable homes is always a concern for elected members but Cranbrook has a very good record of delivery across the development with a high percentage delivered to date, they said.

They added: “The question of a leisure centre is not regarded as problematic in the town centre area from the members’ point of view given the facilities available at the Cranbrook Education Campus which are available to the wider community and include a sports hall and other indoor and outdoor sporting facilities.

“Further sports facilities are already delivered at Ingram’s with more planned for the expansion of the town which will create opportunities to provide additional sports and leisure facilities and there has been no interest in a hotel provider coming to the town.

“While the aim of the SPD and Masterplan is, undoubtedly, to bring forward a more extensive and holistic town centre for Cranbrook, there are clear and unavoidable risks associated with this approach and therefore considerable concern within the local community that this will take a long time to achieve and, more worryingly, may never be achieved.

“It is clear that the approach via an SPD / Masterplan will not be attractive to the Consortium and therefore the likely scenario is that the plan would be progressed through compulsory purchase of land by a local authority and subsequent marketing of the various parcels to attract commercial interest. This is potentially costly to the public purse at this time of economic uncertainty and carries with it great financial risk.

“Existing Section 106 obligations, brought forward under the Consortium proposal, will revert to the original trigger points. This means that four elements (children’s centre, blue light facility land, skatepark and 500m² of retail space) will come forward in the foreseeable future while other obligations are not due until 3,450 occupations which is probably 7 + years away.”

But Gill Munday, Head of Primary Care (North & East), NHS Devon Clinical Commissioning Group, said the small stand-alone building that just houses GP services as envisaged under Option 1 is considered sub-optimal and will not meet the needs of the growing population of Cranbrook over the longer term.

And Peter Gilpin, CEO of LED Community Leisure said that the Cranbrook School facilities are already unable to meet the demand for activities that LED is being asked to provide and that and given the future population growth, these facilities cannot be expected to provide for the future leisure demands of the town.

He added: “Whatever the eventual operating arrangements, there is a clear case for the provision of a 4-court sports hall, or the equivalent space for alternative leisure activities, within a leisure centre with unrestricted opening hours and access for the general public, and a 6-lane pool (plus teaching pool) should be provided, as originally planned for.”

Planning officers, in their recommendation, had said: “The consortium proposals may deliver what the town needs now but in so doing it precludes the delivery of future commercial and community spaces that the town will need as it grows from its current 2100 homes to around 8000 in the future. Failure to meet the long term needs of the town as it grows jeopardises the future of Cranbrook as a sustainable and healthy new town.”

But with the consortium having changed their proposals, a new report, with new recommendations, will now be written.

The council will be looking to set a new date for the meeting in October.

The test of time.

Owl revisits this profile of Boris Johnson written by Max Hastings in June 2019. (Since then Labour have replaced Jeremy Corbyn with Keir Starmer)

Max Hastings www.mirror.co.uk 

Six years ago, the Cambridge historian Christopher Clark published a study of the outbreak of the First World War, titled The Sleepwalkers.

Though Clark is a fine scholar, I was unconvinced by his title, which suggested the great powers stumbled mindlessly to disaster.

On the contrary, the maddest aspect of 1914 was that each belligerent government convinced itself that it was acting rationally.

It would be fanciful to liken the ascent of Boris Johnson to the outbreak of global war, but similar forces are in play.

There is room for debate about whether he is a scoundrel or mere rogue, but not much about his moral bankruptcy, rooted in a contempt for truth.

Nonetheless, even before the Conservative national membership cheers him in as our prime minister – denied the option of Nigel Farage, whom some polls suggest they would prefer – Tory MPs have thronged to do just that.

I have known Johnson since the 1980s, when I edited the Daily Telegraph and he was our flamboyant Brussels correspondent.

I have argued for a decade that, while he is a brilliant entertainer who made a popular maître d’ for London as its mayor, he is unfit for national office, because it seems he cares for no interest save his own fame and gratification.

Tory MPs have launched this country upon an experiment in celebrity government, matching that taking place in Ukraine and the US, and it is unlikely to be derailed by the latest headlines.

The Washington Post columnist George Will observes that Donald Trump does what his base wants “by breaking all the china”. We can’t predict what a Johnson government will do, because its prospective leader has not got around to thinking about this.

But his premiership will ­almost certainly reveal a contempt for rules, precedent, order and stability.

A few admirers assert that, in office, Johnson will reveal an accession of wisdom and responsibility that have hitherto eluded him, not least as Foreign Secretary.

This seems unlikely, as the weekend’s stories emphasised.

Dignity still matters in public office, and Johnson will never have it. Yet his graver vice is cowardice, reflected in a willingness to tell any audience whatever he thinks most likely to please, heedless of the inevitability of its contradiction an hour later.

Like many showy personalities, he is of weak character.

I recently suggested to a radio audience that he supposes himself to be Winston Churchill, while in reality being closer to Alan Partridge. Churchill, for all his wit, was a profoundly serious human being.

Far from perceiving anything glorious about standing alone in 1940, he knew that all difficult issues must be addressed with allies and partners.

Churchill’s self-obsession was tempered by a huge compassion for humanity, or at least white humanity, which Johnson confines to himself. He has long been considered a bully, prone to making cheap threats.

My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.

“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances. Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”

He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our poss-ible next Prime Minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him.

Johnson would not recognise truth, whether about his private or political life, if confronted by it in an identity parade. The other day I came across an observation made in 1750 by Bishop Berkeley: “It is impossible that a man who is false to his friends and neighbours should be true to the public.”

Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him.

There is, of course, a symmetry between himself and Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is far more honest, but harbours his own delusions.

He may yet prove to be the only possible Labour leader whom Johnson can defeat in a general election. If the opposition was led by anybody else, the Tories would be deservedly doomed.

As it is, the Johnson premiership could survive three or four years, shambling from one embarrassment and debacle to another, of which Brexit may prove the least.

For many of us, his elevation will signal Britain’s abandonment of any claim to be a serious country.

It can be claimed that few people realised what a poor Prime Minister Theresa May would prove until they saw her in Downing Street.

With Boris, however, what you see now is almost assuredly what we shall get from him as ruler. We can scarcely strip the emperor’s clothes from a man who has built a career, or at least a lurid love life, out of strutting without them.

The weekend stories of his domestic affairs are only an aperitif for his future as Britain’s leader.

I have a hunch that Johnson will come to regret securing the prize for which he has struggled so long, because the experience of the premiership will lay bare his ­absolute unfitness for it.

If the Johnson family had stuck to showbusiness like the Osmonds, Marx Brothers or von Trapp family, the world would be a better place.

Yet the Tories have elevated a cavorting charlatan to the steps of Downing Street, and they should expect to pay a full forfeit when voters get the message.

If the price of Johnson proves to be Corbyn, blame will rest with the Conservative party, which is about to foist a tasteless joke upon the British people – who will not find it funny for long.

What Our New PM Boris Johnson’s Mates and Coworkers Say About Him

Gavin Haynes www.vice.com

Well Britain, we’ve really done it this time. Big congrats to every single one of us for destroying literally any semblance of respect we might have held on an international political stage. Yes, of course, there was our whole British empire fuckup, which retrospectively, was not good, but we had moved away from that a bit! It was getting better! We stopped colonising places! And then Brexit came, and we fucked it, and just when you didn’t think it could get any worse: Boris Johnson.

Johnson. Johnson. What greater emblem of the entire failure of our political system than a man so fundamentally determined to lie and climb the political ladder, who is frequently touted as bad at his job, bad at creating and implementing policy, bad at managing teams, actively dangerous when it comes to international relations and routinely an embarrassment outside of the UK has become our Prime Minister. Some of his own MPs preemptively said they would not work under him – an unprecedented declaration of mistrust – and the entire of the UK has never been so politicised nor the Tory party.

Notably, Johnson’s election campaign has been characterised by a total lack of detail or policy initiative beyond “miraculously pull us out of Europe on 31st October”. Beyond grandly announcing to “defeat Jeremy Corbyn” in today’s speech, we’re unlikely to get any more detail around what he intends to do in Number 10.

So we decided to go to Johnson’s own friends and colleagues – the ones who know him best – to figure out what exactly our new *choking, barely able to get the words out* Prime Minister has in store for us.

ON BORIS JOHNSON’S TEMPERAMENT

Sonia Pernell, Boris Johnson’s colleague at The Daily Telegraph, writing in the Times:

“Boris Johnson can change from bonhomie to a dark fury in seconds… [he[ has the fiercest and most uncontrollable anger I have seen… It was the sight of Boris Johnson in full flow that convinced me all those years ago in the 1990s, when I worked alongside him in Brussels reporting on the EU for The Daily Telegraph, that he was temperamentally unsuitable to be entrusted with any position of power, let alone the highest office of all, in charge of the United Kingdom and its nuclear codes.”

Peter Guilford, who worked with Johnson in Europe as a Times journalist, in the Independent:

“[Johnson was happy to] ham up the story, so there wasn’t much difference between news and entertainment… He would write outrageous stories with only slenderest connection of truth in them.”

Max Hastings, Boris Johnson’s former boss at the Telegraph, writing in the Guardian:

“I have known Johnson since the 1980s, when I edited the Daily Telegraph and he was our flamboyant Brussels correspondent… There is room for debate about whether he is a scoundrel or mere rogue, but not much about his moral bankruptcy, rooted in a contempt for truth.”

Mathew Leeming, a friend at Oxford and former flatmate, writing in the Telegraph:

“He has a low boredom threshold and he does not do detail.”

Matthew d’Ancona, his former editor at the Spectator, writing in the Guardian:

“Especially in his early years, Johnson had the will to power of Pinochet and the social graces of Gussie Fink-Nottle. He was clever without being a swot. He winged it, which drove his editors mad but inspired considerable envy in his peers. He was fun. He activated the narcotic weakness within the English for eccentricity – especially potent when it is suspected that the eccentric in question may one day be the leader of the gang.”

Max Hastings:

“As it is, the Johnson premiership could survive for three or four years, shambling from one embarrassment and debacle to another, of which Brexit may prove the least.”

Sonia Purnell:

“That anger remains an issue. Rachel [Johnson’s sister] in particular is said to fear her brother’s ire if she dares to criticise him in public, or make her disagreement with his “leave” stance on Brexit too obvious. She has also talked of her brother’s “very Sicilian” attitude to anyone who crosses him.”

Matthew Leeming:

“Boris is the only front-line politician who can make us see Brexit as a huge opportunity.”

ON BORIS JOHNSON’S POLITICS

Max Hastings:

“For many of us, his elevation will signal Britain’s abandonment of any claim to be a serious country.”

Matthew D’Ancona:

“His shtick was no longer an aspect of his politics. It was his politics. While the rest of Westminster operated within the structures of 20th-century political discourse, Johnson worked on his material like a standup preparing for a Netflix special.”

ON BORIS JOHNSON’S FITNESS FOR NUMBER 10

Max Hastings:

“I have argued for a decade that, while he is a brilliant entertainer who made a popular maître d’ for London as its mayor, he is unfit for national office, because it seems he cares for no interest save his own fame and gratification.”

Mathew Leeming:

“Boris has an ability to articulate what the majority of people think and know, just as Margaret Thatcher did…. Boris has extraordinary talents and needs extraordinary circumstances for those talents to take him to the very top, just as Churchill did.”

Conservative MP Sir Alan Duncan, who worked under Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt in the Foreign Office, speaking to the BBC:

“I’ve served both Foreign Secretaries and I’ve got no doubt which is the more capable and competent. I have very grave concerns that he flies by the seat of his pants and is all a bit haphazard and ramshackle… I think he’s going to go smack into a crisis of government.”

Sarah Hayward, former leader of the London Borough of Camden who worked with Johnson as the Mayor of London, writing in the Guardian:

“The most important aspect of Johnson’s working style is his lack of attention to detail. In every setting, from one-to-one meetings to big set pieces, such as the annual London government dinner, he would be ill-prepared. This comes across as disinterest or worse. But this isn’t a problem of his manner or working style. Those who worked as his closest advisers in City Hall are quite open about the fact that Johnson would lose interest if a policy briefing took more than a few minutes, five maximum…

The challenges, first of Brexit and then of the huge domestic conundrums we face – housing, adult social care, post-Brexit industrial and trade policy – all require attention to detail, hard work and tough choices. The Boris Johnson I and many of those around him have seen has shown no evidence that he is capable of that.”

Can Dido mix two high profile public service roles, subject to the civil service code, with her political role taking the Conservative whip in the Lords? – Owl

Oliver Wright, Policy Editor www.thetimes.co.uk 

Boris Johnson has been accused by a former Labour lord chancellor of corrupting the constitution by appointing the Conservative peer Baroness Harding of Winscombe to a leading role in the fight against Covid-19.

Lord Falconer of Thoroton, QC, said it was inappropriate for Lady Harding to have an executive role running the test and trace system as well as her appointment as head of the new National Institute for Health Protection.

He spoke out as Baroness Smith of Basildon, the Labour leader in the House of Lords, wrote to Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, asking for urgent clarification of what appeared to be a clear breach of civil service rules.

They argue that in both roles Lady Harding, 52, works as a public servant and is covered by the civil service code, which states that civil servants should not “act in a way determined by political considerations”. She sits as a backbench Tory peer and takes the Conservative whip.

Lord Falconer told The Observer yesterday that he had never known of anyone being allowed to mix public service and political roles in such a way and demanded that she either sit as a non-aligned crossbench peer or be appointed as a government minister. She could then be held accountable and answer questions in the upper house.

“It is such a corruption of our constitution to make a Tory backbencher in parliament a senior civil servant without any process and without even requiring the most basic rules of political impartiality,” Lord Falconer said.

Government sources said that Lady Harding, a former chief executive of TalkTalk, had shown herself to be accountable and had appeared last week before the science and technology select committee to answer questions about the Covid-19 testing system that she has led since May.

She was also tipped yesterday as a potential successor to Sir Simon Stevens, who is expected to stand down as head of NHS England next year.

Plans to develop Exmouth’s former Rolle College campus into 39 new homes have been submitted to planners in East Devon.

Joseph Bulmer exmouth.nub.news

The 39 new homes would comprise of 10 houses and 29 apartments, with Grade II Listed Eldin House being converted and refurbished into apartments.

If the plans are successful a number of buildings on the site would need to be demolished.

The planning application was submitted on Friday, September 11, by LRM Planning Ltd on behalf of developer Acorn Property Group.

The site measures 0.78ha in area and is roughly rectangular in shape, and slopes downwards from the north/northwest to the south east. The site forms part of a wider campus directly adjacent to the west, which is now being developed by the Exeter Royal Academy for Deaf Education.

The planning application’s Design and Access Statement states: “The site was formerly used as an educational campus.

“Since the campus closure, the brownfield site has fallen into disrepair and suffered from antisocial behaviour, vandalism and unmanaged vegetation growth.

“The site contains a number of buildings on the former campus site. The buildings represent a range of different building styles, ages, scales and materials.

“These buildings range from 19th century villas to post war education buildings. With the exception

of Eldin House, the majority of buildings on site are low quality post-war education buildings which are in a state of disrepair and no longer fit for purpose.

“It is proposed that these are demolished to allow for more appropriate building in keeping with the surrounding character.”

An apartment building would be located in the south western part of the site: “The apartment building has been designed to provide a range of different apartment sizes from two to three bed dwellings, all of which have been designed internally to facilitate a range of homeowner needs, including spacious and open living spaces and appropriate levels of storage.

“Each apartment has been designed to benefit from either south facing views, or views out towards Eldin House and the landscaped courtyard space to the north. At ground level,undercroft (at grade parking) is provided with bin and cycle stores.

“Generous floor to ceilings and appropriately placed windows, will create light and airy places to live. Each dwelling will have amenity space in the form of a balcony or terrace. The top floor is recessed to allow for generous outside terraces.”

The developer is conscious of the impact building work could have on the neighbouring Deaf Academy, ‘ it is of the utmost importance to ensure that the needs, comfort and safety of the Academy and young students are considered and respected’.

Currently the main entrance to the site is to the south west of Douglas Avenue. If this application is granted the gate pier and entrance wall would need to be widened to accomodate residents’ vehicles.

No date has yet been set for the plans to be discussed by East Devon District Council’s strategic planning committee.

So far there have been no comments from local residents on the planning application, if you feel strongly about the above application feel free to get in touch with Exmouth Nub News editor Joe Bulmer, joe.bulmer@nub.news.

If you would like to view the application for yourself, click here and use the following planning number to search for the application: 20/1838/MFUL.

Owl is delighted to read of this example of cross party support and cooperation in strategic policy development.

Joseph Bulmer and Daniel Clark sidmouth.nub.news 

East Devon District Council has registered its opposition to a ‘ludicrous’ algorithm that could see double the number of new homes have to be built each year.

The Government is set to change the method they use for calculating the amount of housing each district should provide each year, with the new method seeing the numbers in East Devon rise by 67 per cent, Mid Devon by 75 per cent, and Teignbridge by 102 per cent.

But councillors have said that the figures are ‘completely unacceptable’, have come from an algorithm that makes no sense, and that it is very difficult to see there being enough people in the country that would want or be compelled to move to the areas to fill this number of houses.

But East Devon District Council and Teignbridge District Council so far have agreed to oppose the proposed approach, believing that the numbers are both too great and most likely, undeliverable.

Last week’s East Devon District Council Strategic Planning Committee also unanimously agreed to adopt their proposed response would see opposition to the methodology.

Ed Freeman, service lead for planning strategy and development, in his report, said: “The East Devon housing requirement is increased by a massive 67 per cent from 928 dwellings to 1,614 new homes per year. The increase, by any standards, can only be seen as a staggeringly high increase on top of what was a high level anyway.

“It must be seriously questioned whether the number of houses for East Devon, and surrounding areas, even if credible land could be allocated for their development, will actually be built. It must be seriously questioned whether there would be sufficient numbers of people wishing to buy or rent a property in East Devon and surrounding areas to sustain the level of growth the figures imply.

“Short of a massive boon in jobs in our part of England or there being some other compelling reason why people will move here, it is extremely difficult to see anything approaching a market of sufficient size to see these levels of houses built. A move to greater homeworking my generate greater levels of migration to East Devon but the long term levels of migration arising from changes in working practices as a result of the current pandemic are unknown.

“In the case of East Devon, recent research for the Council undertaken by the consultancy firm ORS shows that to meet trend based needs there is a need for 757 dwelling a year and to address pent-up demand a need for 59 dwellings a year, giving a total of 816 dwellings per year. Deducting this figure from a district total of 1,614 implies that 798 households would need to move in to East Devon each year over and above established trends.

“This level of increase is simply not a credible prediction and much less so a credible policy response when it comes to planning for housing provision.”

Councillor Mike Allen said that being asked to increase by the numbers in this way was ludicrous. He said: “There is something fundamentally wrong with the algorithm, and it shows no relevance whatsoever to local democracy and reality on the ground.”

Councillor Ian Thomas added, referring to the chaos over exam results, said: “It has not been a good summer for the Government and algorithms. To jump by 67 per cent and 102 per cent worries me and it simply isn’t credible. We are dealing with a half cooked algorithm and whipping numbers out of the air is not acceptable.”

Councillor Kevin Blakey said that as developers won’t be keen to develop properties that they can’t sell very quickly, this couldn’t possibly work, while councillor Eleanor Rylance said that ‘if we don’t resist this, we will cover the West End in housing with no transport infrastructure’.

Teignbridge’s portfolio holder for planning, councillor Gary Taylor said: “One of the most contentious issues is the suggestion that housing numbers will be based on a nationally set formula where more homes have to be built annually in areas where open market housing is often not affordable to local residents.

“In Teignbridge, the changes mean that our housing requirement could increase by 101% to 1,532 homes, double the current requirement to build 760 houses a year. This is a figure which I am sure councillors will consider unacceptable.”

Councillor Taylor said that within the consultations there is a suggestion that the identified annual housebuilding figure would be varied by the availability of land and could be reduced if there was evidence of the lack of suitable space in Teignbridge for building.

“This is a consultation and no final decisions will be made by the Government until later in the year” he added. “But as a Council we will be responding to the consultation, welcoming changes designed to make the planning system more responsive but strongly opposing the housing numbers which will adversely impact on our communities and environment.”

This is the latest concerted publicity push by those behind the “Great South West”. This enterprise is headed by Steve Hindley, Chairman of Midas property services group and backed by, amongst others, The Western Morning News and Pennon, owner of South West Water. 

The Great South West is yet another unelected, unaccountable, organisation pitching for a £2M set-up fund to design our future. Owl has previously described it as the LEP for LEPs (Local Enterprise Partnership). It covers the four counties in the peninsular: Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall and their respective LEPs.

It makes sense to consider strategic infrastructure investment decisions across the peninsular as a whole. The LEPs are not the right bodies to replace the regional development agencies. What worries Owl is that the Great South West looks (and sounds below) as if it sees itself as a contender for a devolved Combined Authority.

Owl also notes that plenty of recovery plans are being made but asks the question: do we yet know what the impact of covid-19 on our economy will be? The new normal will be different to “Build,build,build”. Are they consulting with us or our elected leaders?

“Happily consult my diary” from the PM sounds like a maybe, nothing definite. (East Devon is currently having a master class on how, even if your MP has the PM’s private email and telephone number, no great favours for the South West can be expected.)

HANNAH FINCH, Western Morning News

hannah.finch@reachplc.com

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised to ‘consult his diary’ on discussions to ‘turbo-charge’ the economy of the South West. Johnson said that he shares the vision of a prosperous Great South West during Wednesday’s PMQs.

The prominent mention follows a visit by South West MPs to Downing Street in November 2019 where Johnson pledged to Back The Great South West. Now, business and economic leaders are calling from less talk and more action.

Susan Davy, Chief Executive of Pennon Group – which has been spearheading the Back the Great South West campaign, said: “This latest recognition of the Great South West by the Prime Minister is welcome but we need firm Government commitments to the region. In line with the ‘build back better’ agenda there is a clear opportunity for the South West to become a leader in clean, environmentally sustainable growth. Businesses in the region ourselves included – will continue to help drive this forward but better digital and transport connectivity is badly needed.

“We heard similar positive words from Mr Johnson at 10 Downing Street back in November and, while we welcome further dialogue on the issue, it is time the region was given the support it deserves.”

The Prime Minister was responding to a question by Totnes conservative MP Antony Mangnall, who asked: “The Prime Minister is rightly levelling up across the country, giving that issue both barrels, but I know that the South West has often been overlooked. Will he reassure this House and Members from across the South West that we will invest in digital and transport infrastructure, we will turbocharge opportunity and we will provide the growth that they need in the South West? To that effect, will he meet a delegation from the South West to discuss the opportunities before us?”

The Prime Minister cited investment in schools at West Alvington Church of England Academy and Eden Park Primary and Nursery School, before adding: “As for his request [to meet a delegation], I will happily consult my diary.”

The Great South West has been asking for a £2million push to set up the Great South West partnership – a region-wide organisation to rival the Midlands Engine and Northern Powerhouse. It predicts that the funding could drive a £45billion uplift to the economy with green energy at its heart. The need for the funding alongside more government infrastructure spend will be top of discussions. Gary Streeter MP, chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group tasked with the Great South West agenda, welcomed further talks.

He said: “South West MPs would be delighted to take a delegation from the Great South West board to see the PM to discuss this vital issue

He added that any meeting would likely be after the White Paper on Devolution is published – due before the end of the year and setting out a placed-based regional strategy for the levelling up of regional prosperity. Steve Hindley, Chairman of the Great South West Steering Group said: “I’m delighted to hear the Prime Minister yet again mention the Great South West with enthusiasm. When we met with him last year at Number 10, he gave assurance that the south west could expect more investment in infrastructure; and indicated that we needed to be more ambitious in our asks for the set up funding for the Great South West partnership. £2million is what we need initially to drive a £45 billion uplift.

“We look forward to working with our partners in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly and Dorset LEPs, the Local Authorities, our business community – including the Western Morning News which has been a vocal and valuable advocate – and indeed our wider south west stakeholders in the Western Gateway which is our neighbouring “powerhouse economy” and the latest to get formal recognition and funding from Government. We firmly believe that now more than ever is the time to Level Up.”

The Heart of the South West is soon to publish its Building Back Better plan – setting out opportunities to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Earlier this year, just before lockdown hit, Heart of the South West and LEPs in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly and Dorset published its Great South West prospectus, “Securing our Future’:

Karl Tucker, Chairman of the Heart of the South West LEP said: “Our area has the potential to create a low carbon economy based on clean and inclusive growth.

“The opportunities and aspirations of the Heart of the South West dovetail with those of the wider region; and together we can build back an economy that’s not only better in terms of prosperity, but environmentally too.”

Dominic Cummings’ lockdown travels and the exams fiasco could have contributed to dooming the government’s Covid contact-tracing app before it even launches, a technology expert has warned.

Alex Hern www.theguardian.com 

Evidence of low uptake overseas also suggests the app may not live up to ministers’ early hopes of a panacea. In late May, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, admitted it was “the cherry on the cake but [not] the cake”; in recent weeks it has barely been mentioned.

The app, which is due to launch in England and Wales on Thursday 24 September, will use the bluetooth signal in mobile phones to track close and sustained contact between users and then warn those who may have been exposed to an infectious person that they should self-isolate.

But to succeed at that goal, the app will need to be installed by a large proportion of the public. That could be hard to achieve, warned Imogen Parker, the head of policy at the tech thinktank Ada Lovelace Institute, because of a series of trust-diminishing scandals over the summer.

“In March, it was suggested that we would need 80% of smartphone users to install the app for it to reduce infections. But internationally, the best case scenario we’ve seen has been about 40% uptake, and that’s in small countries like Iceland and Singapore. Examples from larger countries like Germany and Ireland suggest we’re looking more like 18-30% a few weeks after launch,” she said.

“In the UK, uptake is going to be related to trust in government. While we were doing some public work on trust over May, you had the Barnard Castle incident; after that you had the A-level algorithm. But the flip side is that the NHS brand itself is incredibly trusted.”

Parker also raised alarm at the prospect of large numbers of people being advised to self-isolate based on “false positive” results. “The best data I’ve seen suggests 45% false positives and 33% false negatives,” she said, “but phone proximity isn’t everything. The growing body of evidence about things like the substantially limited risk outside versus inside really matters. We need to make sure the app can identify risk, not just identify phones.”

The latest version of the contact-tracing app is substantially rebuilt from an earlier version. It was pulled from public release at the last minute after tests in the Isle of Wight revealed several flaws with the iPhone version. Some of those changes should help increase uptake and efficacy, said the University of Oxford’s Prof Christophe Fraser, a scientific adviser to the national test-and-trace programme.

“We and others have shown through simulations, where we show the integration of the app with manual tracing, social distancing, and so on, even 10 to 15% uptake can have an effect,” he says.

The newest version of the app is built with a framework created by Apple and Google, which means it can begin working even before it is installed on devices. It also includes a QR code-led “check-in” function, which lets users record that they have been to public locations and receive alerts for any outbreak linked to that venue.

Those features, Fraser says, should help people see that the app isn’t just important for public health but for individual outcomes too. That means that even “false positive” warnings can be useful.

“Localised contact tracing provides information, even if you’re not infectious,” he said. “It’s not really a ‘false positive’, because it’s very important to know that Covid-19 is spreading in your local area. We’re faced with a difficult winter, a grave winter, and every little behavioural nudge matters. A little bit of ventilation, mask wearing and hand hygiene does make a difference.”

The Department of Health and Social Care has been approached for comment.

A live Government dashboard has pinpointed the areas of Devon where COVID-19 cases are on the rise.

Miles O’Leary www.devonlive.com

The latest coronavirus cluster map for Exeter has identified four cases have arisen out of the Pennsylvania and University district. 

Whilst another four cases have also been confirmed in Clyst, Exton and Lympstone.

Other pockets of Exeter may have COVID-19 but the number of cases in those areas are either below three or nil.

Elsewhere, Launceston has become Cornwall’s fourth new cluster with three cases.

Paignton, Torquay and other areas of the Bay do not appear to have cases of more than two.

Likewise with Newton Abbot and down in South Devon.

The latest COVID-19 cluster areas in Devon, chiefly in the Exeter area (Image: arcgis.com)

Over in Plymouth, there are nine cases in Derriford and Estover, 10 in Mutley and another three in neighbouring Peverell.

The map divides the country into small patches of around 7,200 average population and are called Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA).

A cluster is recorded when three or more cases have been confirmed in the space of seven days.

The latest information concerns the spread of COVID from September 10 to September 16.

Plymouth’s Mutley and Peverell areas have had three or more COVID-19 cases

Overall, the number of new coronavirus cases confirmed across Devon this week have fallen compared to last week’s figures.

Government statistics show that 155 new cases have been confirmed across Devon and Cornwall in the past week, in both pillar 1 data from tests carried out by the NHS, and pillar 2 data from commercial partners, compared to 154 new cases confirmed last week.

Fill in our short survey to let us know what you think about the latest Covid restrictions.

Of the 155 new cases, 9 were in East Devon, 12 in Exeter, 4 in Mid Devon, 4 in North Devon, 45 in Plymouth, 4 in the South Hams, 7 in Teignbridge, 2 in Torbay, 6 in Torridge, and 2 in West Devon.

Despite this, in Torbay new cases have fallen dramatically from 12 to 2, while in the Devon County Council area, they have dropped from 71 to 48.

www.bbc.co.uk 

Leaked documents involving about $2tn of transactions have revealed how some of the world’s biggest banks have allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world.

They also show how Russian oligarchs have used banks to avoid sanctions that were supposed to stop them getting their money into the West.

It’s the latest in a string of leaks over the past five years that have exposed secret deals, money laundering and financial crime.

What are the FinCEN files?

The FinCEN files are more than 2,500 documents, most of which were files that banks sent to the US authorities between 2000 and 2017. They raise concerns about what their clients might be doing.

These documents are some of the international banking system’s most closely guarded secrets.

Banks use them to report suspicious behaviour but they are not proof of wrongdoing or crime.

They were leaked to Buzzfeed News and shared with a group that brings together investigative journalists from around the world, which distributed them to 108 news organisations in 88 countries, including the BBC’s Panorama programme.

Hundreds of journalists have been sifting through the dense, technical documentation, uncovering some of the activities that banks would prefer the public not to know about.

FinCEN Files

• 2,657documents including
• 2,121 Suspicious Activity Reports

Two acronyms you need to know

FinCEN is the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. These are the people at the US Treasury who combat financial crime. Concerns about transactions made in US dollars need to be sent to FinCEN, even if they took place outside the US.

Suspicious activity reports, or SARs, are an example of how those concerns are recorded. A bank must fill in one of these reports if it is worried one of its clients might be up to no good. The report is sent to the authorities.

Why does this matter?

If you are planning to profit from a criminal enterprise, one of the most important things to have in place is a way of laundering the money.

Laundering money is the process of taking dirty money – the proceeds of crimes such as drug dealing or corruption – and getting it into an account at a respected bank where it will not be linked with the crime.

The same process is needed if you are a Russian oligarch whom Western countries have taken sanctions against to stop you getting your money into the West.

Banks are supposed to make sure they don’t help clients to launder money or move it around in ways that break the rules.

By law, they have to know who their clients are – it’s not enough to file SARs and keep taking dirty money from clients while expecting the authorities to deal with the problem. If they have evidence of criminal activity they should stop moving the cash.

Fergus Shiel from the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) said the leaked files were an “insight into what banks know about the vast flows of dirty money across the globe”.

He said the documents also highlighted the extraordinarily large amounts of money involved. The documents in the FinCEN files cover about $2tn of transactions and they are only a tiny proportion of the SARs submitted over the period.

What has been revealed?

• HSBC allowed fraudsters to move millions of dollars of stolen money around the world, even after it learned from US investigators the scheme was a scam.
• JP Morgan allowed a company to move more than $1bn through a London account without knowing who owned it. The bank later discovered the company might be owned by a mobster on the FBI’s 10 Most Wanted list.
• Evidence that one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest associates used Barclays Bank in London to avoid sanctions which were meant to stop him using financial services in the West. Some of the cash was used to buy works of art.
• The UK is called a “higher risk jurisdiction” like Cyprus, according to the intelligence division of FinCEN. That’s because of the number of UK registered companies that appear in the SARs. Over 3,000 UK companies are named in the FinCEN files – more than any other country.
• The United Arab Emirates’ central bank failed to act on warnings about a local firm which was helping Iran evade sanctions.
• Deutsche Bank moved money launderers’ dirty money for organised crime, terrorists and drug traffickers. More details (BuzzFeed News)
• Standard Chartered moved cash for Arab Bank for more than a decade after clients’ accounts at the Jordanian bank had been used in funding terrorism.

Why is this leak different?

There have been a number of big leaks of financial information in recent years, including:

• 2017 Paradise Papers – A huge batch of leaked documents from an offshore legal service provider Appleby and corporate services provider Estera. The two operated together under the Appleby name until Estera became independent in 2016. They revealed the offshore financial dealings of politicians, celebrities and business leaders
• 2016 Panama Papers – Leaked documents from the law firm Mossack Fonseca showed more about how wealthy people were using offshore tax regimes to their benefit
• 2015 Swiss Leaks – Documents from HSBC’s Swiss private bank showed how it was using the country’s banking secrecy laws to help clients avoid paying tax
• 2014 LuxLeaks contained documents from the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers showing that big companies were using tax deals in Luxembourg to reduce the amount they were having to pay

The FinCEN papers are different because they are not just documents from one or two companies – they come from a number of banks.

They highlight a range of potentially suspicious activity involving companies and individuals and also raise questions about why the banks which had noticed this activity did not always act on their concerns.

FinCEN said the leak could impact on US national security, compromise investigations, and threaten the safety of institutions and individuals who file the reports.

But last week it announced proposals to overhaul its anti-money laundering programmes.

The UK has also unveiled plans to reform its register of company information to clamp down on fraud and money laundering.

• T1 Turkey Oak To reduce end weight on selected branches (as identified in accompanying photos), by making target pruning cuts of up to 50mm in diameter to remove branch ends up to 2m in length. No more than 20% foliar area to be removed from any one first or second order branch. 

  16 Old Home Farm Rousdon Lyme Regis DT7 3YL

  Ref. No: 20/1965/TCA | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey side and rear extensions 

  Holly Tree Longmeadow Road Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5LE

  Ref. No: 20/1960/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• A variety of Holly, Beech, Sycamore along the entire length of the boundary between the Rousdon Estate and the A3052 – Crown lifting to achieve a minimum of 5.5M clearance above the A3052. Felling of invasive Cherry Laurel where it overhangs the A3052. These works are proposed as remedial work to improve the safety of the public highway A3052. Grateful for early consideration of this proposal. 

  North Lodge Rousdon Lyme Regis DT7 3XW

  Ref. No: 20/1956/TCA | Validated: Thu 10 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Variation of condition 14 (yard usage hours) of planning permission 09/2354/MFUL (Erection of class A1 food store, customer car parking, service access and associated development, as varied by 11/1173/VAR) to make permanent the use of the yard from 6am (was 7am) Monday to Saturday, which began temporarily on 3 August 2020. 

  Sainsburys Hind Street Ottery St Mary EX11 1BW

  Ref. No: 20/1953/VAR | Validated: Thu 10 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey extension with balcony over, pergola and detached garage 

  89 Sidford Road Sidmouth EX10 9NR

  Ref. No: 20/1948/FUL | Validated: Wed 09 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey extension 

  Briar Cottage Dolphin Street Colyton EX24 6NA

  Ref. No: 20/1943/LBC | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T1 – Maple, Dismantle in sections to near ground level T2 – Cherry, Fell to near ground level T3 – Robinia, Dismantle in sections to near ground level Reason for works: T1 is showing significant basal decay and cavity, concerns over stability of tree due to it’s exposed location. T2 is growing within the canopy of T1 and has bad form, will be left exposed when T1 is removed. T3 has had a large stem removed and now has decay present at the base of the tree along with a potentially weak basal union. Dieback present within crown of tree, limited life expectancy. 

  Gilbrook House Woodbury Exeter EX5 1LG

  Ref. No: 20/1946/TCA | Validated: Wed 09 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of two storey side extension 

  4 Burrow Farm Cottages Stoke Canon Exeter EX5 4ED

  Ref. No: 20/1940/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Agricultural building. 

  Land At Pamos Farm Upottery Honiton EX14 9PB

  Ref. No: 20/1950/AGR | Validated: Wed 09 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T4 – Oak – Target prune from the highway to reduce the lower canopy. Pruning will remove 2 x broken and damaged branches to facilitate access requirements for the site. Work required to alleviate conflict between trees and vehicles. 

  Land Adjacent Tillhouse Cottages London Road Rockbeare

  Ref. No: 20/1947/TRE | Validated: Wed 09 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey extension 

  Briar Cottage Dolphin Street Colyton EX24 6NA

  Ref. No: 20/1942/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Fell 1 x Cupressus 

  High Banks Brampford Speke Exeter EX5 5HW

  Ref. No: 20/1931/TCA | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Remove 1 x Sycamore and replace with 1 x English Walnut 

  2 Parklands Seaton EX12 2PE

  Ref. No: 20/1920/TCA | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T1, leaning pittosporum – dismantle and fell. T2, dying apple – fell to a six foot stump. T3, pittosproum by lawn – reduce and re-shape to leave a natural form. T4, magnolia – remove dying stem. 

  Springcombe House Salcombe Regis Sidmouth EX10 0JN

  Ref. No: 20/1930/TCA | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Roofing over open silage clamp phase 3 

  Lees Farm Southleigh Colyton EX24 6SA

  Ref. No: 20/1924/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey rear extension 

  224 Withycombe Village Road Exmouth EX8 3BD

  Ref. No: 20/1926/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey extension 

  66 Sidford High Street Sidford Sidmouth EX10 9SQ

  Ref. No: 20/1929/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Roofing over open silage clamp phase 2 

  Lees Farm Southleigh Colyton EX24 6SA

  Ref. No: 20/1923/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Proposed 2 no. additional roof windows and flue for stove 

  Fieldview Slade Farm Slade Road Ottery St Mary EX11 1QN

  Ref. No: 20/1933/FUL | Validated: Thu 10 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Roofing over livestock yard Phase 4 

  Lees Farm Southleigh Colyton EX24 6SA

  Ref. No: 20/1925/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Roofing over open silage clamp phase 1 

  Lees Farm Southleigh Colyton EX24 6SA

  Ref. No: 20/1922/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Proposed annex accommodation 

  Exton Mill Mill Lane Exton Exeter EX3 0PH

  Ref. No: 20/1904/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Prior approval for proposed change of use of agricultural building to a dwelling (Use Class C3) and for building operations reasonably necessary for the conversion under Class Q(a) and Q(b) 

  Land South Of Oak Lodge Chineway Road Ottery St Mary

  Ref. No: 20/1902/PDQ | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey rear extension, raised patio with ramp and steps, modification to wall for resurfaced driveway. 

  12 Windsor Mead Sidford Sidmouth EX10 9SJ

  Ref. No: 20/1897/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T2, silver birch : prune T1, Pine : prune Remove all significant deadwood from within the crown of both trees, pruning the branch tips by approximately 10% crown reduction making natural target pruning cuts of approximately 10%, maintaining the shape and crown of both trees 

  3 Glenview Honiton EX14 2NT

  Ref. No: 20/1905/TRE | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Alterations to front elevation to allow garage conversion 

  1 Lower Knoll Douglas Avenue Exmouth EX8 2JE

  Ref. No: 20/1917/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Agricultural access track 

  Land At Kains Park Farm Awliscombe Honiton EX14 3NN

  Ref. No: 20/1907/AGR | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Silver Birch (Betula pendula) located at the North end of the garden of 67 High Street, Honiton. DBH 34cm with top height 13.5m. Fell 

  67 High Street Honiton EX14 1PW

  Ref. No: 20/1912/TCA | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of single storey side and rear wrap around extension 

  Springfield Farm Harcombe Lyme Regis DT7 3RN

  Ref. No: 20/1900/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T1 – Monterey Cypress: Replace steel cable with 3-way static brace between stems. Brace to be comprised of 12mm wire rope (7×19 construction) secured to custom made braces (in brown) rated to 14,000kg T2 – Monterey Cypress: Reduce spread of canopy to south and south west by 3m so that branches will not reach wall if tree fails. Reduce canopy to north by removing 3 or 4 branches which would impact wall if tree falls to south west. See attached arb report 

  Fernie Knowe 4 Coastguard Road Budleigh Salterton EX9 6HB

  Ref. No: 20/1916/TCA | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Bay Tree – Take the height back down and where possible cut back to boundary without destroying shape and sanctuary for birds, and cut back ivy The tree is blocking light and sunshine until after 1pm 

  8 Salcombe Road Sidmouth EX10 8PU

  Ref. No: 20/1903/TCA | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Formation of outdoor menage. 

  The Oaks Aylesbeare Exeter EX5 2DE

  Ref. No: 20/1890/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Certificate of lawfulness for the construction of a single storey rear extension 

  3 Inner Broomfield London Road Rockbeare Exeter EX5 2EB

  Ref. No: 20/1896/CPL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Refused

• Cherry – Reduce radial spread of tree by 1.5 to 2 m to retain an average radial spread to 3 to 3.5m. Yew – Trim plus crown raise to give 1.5m clearance over parking bay. Holly – Prune back to boundary wall. Magnolia – Prune back to boundary wall. Purple Plum – Prune back to boundary wall. Cherry (behind Magnolia) – Suspected fire Blight. Prune affected branches back to 30cm beyond any signs of infection. 

  Green Gables All Saints Road Sidmouth EX10 8EU

  Ref. No: 20/1898/TCA | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Proposed ground floor rear extension 

  18 Marpool Hill Exmouth EX8 1TD

  Ref. No: 20/1884/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Installation of a battery storage facility and ancillary development 

  Land South Of Woodcote National Grid Substation Hawkchurch Devon

  Ref. No: 20/1877/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Extension of pitched roof over existing flat roof 

  16 Anson Road Exmouth EX8 4NY

  Ref. No: 20/1869/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Installation of 5 velux windows (roof lights) and 1 standard window on the gable end of the property. 

  Quinces Payhembury Honiton EX14 3HJ

  Ref. No: 20/1861/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Installation of a sewage treatment package (retrospective application) 

  Land Adjoining The Workshop Longmeadow Road Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5LF

  Ref. No: 20/1855/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Erection of sales centre located at Cranbrook Phase 1. Sales centre to be in use for 4 years (Renewal) 

  Site Of New Community (Phase 1) Broadclyst Cranbrook

  Ref. No: 20/1852/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Demolition of existing buildings and the residential development of 39 new homes in a mix of 10 no. dwellings and 25 apartments and the conversion and refurbishment of Eldin House to create 4 apartments, together with vehicle and pedestrian accesses, landscaping and associated infrastructure 

  Land At The Former Rolle College Exmouth EX8 2BL

  Ref. No: 20/1838/MFUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Application to determine whether prior approval is required for demolition of steel portal barns

  Porch Farm Smallridge Axminster EX13 7JH

  Ref. No: 20/1822/DEM | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of detached double garage (revisions to details approved under planning permission ref. 09/1876/FUL) 

  9 Mill Lane Alfington Ottery St Mary EX11 1PF

  Ref. No: 20/1817/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Proposed rear balcony 

  Flat 2 19 Albion Hill Exmouth EX8 1JS

  Ref. No: 20/1823/FUL | Validated: Thu 10 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• T1 Turkey Oak crown reduction via thinning by removing regrowth up to 1 metre in length to retain a tree with an approximate height of 12 metres and spread of 4 metres, pruning cuts up to a 60mm diameter. T2 Field Maple crown reduction by removing new growth up to 1 metre in length restricting cuts to a diameter of no more than 60mm, in keeping with good arboricultural practice on a cyclical basis. 

  96 Clyst Valley Road Clyst St Mary Exeter EX5 1DE

  Ref. No: 20/1805/TRE | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Change of use of an existing workshop (use Class B1(c)) to a residential dwelling (use class C3) with minor alterations 

  1 Hamlet Cottages Weston Honiton EX14 3PB

  Ref. No: 20/1726/FUL | Validated: Wed 09 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Garden room (retrospective) 

  15A Knowle Road Budleigh Salterton EX9 6AR

  Ref. No: 20/1713/FUL | Validated: Tue 08 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Retention of works to sack hoist including 3no. replacement windows and re-roofing with additional structural timbers to wheel house roof and re-building brick wall and steps to garden area. 

  The Old Mill Rawridge Honiton EX14 9QS

  Ref. No: 20/1686/LBC | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Replacement windows: 2no. windows on ground floor and 3no. windows on first floor front elevation; 2no. on ground floor and 1no. on first floor side elevation; 1no. window on first floor rear elevation. Re-rendering 3 elevations and re-render front, rear and side elevations 

  Boldbrook Cottage 145 Withycombe Village Road Exmouth EX8 3AG

  Ref. No: 20/1651/LBC | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of two summerhouses in rear garden 

  2 Fortfield Terrace Sidmouth EX10 8NT

  Ref. No: 20/1561/FUL | Validated: Thu 10 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Prune crown to ensure 1.5m clearance from house (Swallowdale). All cuts will be limited in size to no more than 65mm in diameter. Crown clean removing all deadwood, crossing, rubbing or broken branches. Prune crown to ensure 1.5m clearance from Oak Tree House. All cuts will be limited in size to no more than 65mm in diameter. Crown clean removing all deadwood, crossing, rubbing or broken branches. 

  Oak Tree House Glebe Close Upton Pyne Exeter EX5 5JB

  Ref. No: 20/1254/TRE | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of balcony over the existing garage, first floor rear extension and provision of cladding to the main house 

  Kingston House Ebford Lane Ebford Exeter EX3 0QX

  Ref. No: 20/1233/FUL | Validated: Fri 11 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of 3 additional stables for private use 

  Fen Equestrian Centre And Glamping Ltd Venn Ottery Ottery St Mary EX11 1SG

  Ref. No: 20/1084/FUL | Validated: Mon 07 Sep 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

Oh dear the “toilet seats” seem to be suffering from a sense of humour failure at the moment and the secret diaries aren’t even published yet.

Looks to Owl that EDDC Conservative Councillor Maddy Chapman, Exmouth Brixington, will be crossing Hugo Swire off her Christmas List as well.

(Will Hugo notice, Owl wonders?)

from Nick Constable www.dailymail.co.uk 

The wife of ex-Minister Hugo Swire has been accused by furious Tory activists in his former constituency of ‘betraying’ friends with her indiscretion-heavy memoir.

Sasha Swire’s tell-all book – Diary Of An MP’s Wife: Inside And Outside Power – lifts the lid on sex and political shenanigans in the party, describing David Cameron as ‘drunken Dave’ with a filthy mouth, Boris Johnson as ‘calculating’ and Theresa May as a ‘glumbucket’.

Lady Swire, 57, sent her diaries to a publisher last year after her husband retired as East Devon MP.

Last night Maddy Chapman, a Conservative district councillor there for 12 years, said local party members were ‘absolutely disgusted’ at the way she had breached the confidence of friends.

Sasha Swire, pictured with husband Hugo, has been accused by furious Tory activists in his former constituency of ‘betraying’ friends with her indiscretion-heavy memoir

‘She has shown herself for what she is,’ said Mrs Chapman. ‘She has absolutely no class whatsoever.

‘This has not gone down at all well in the constituency. Everyone I speak to is less than impressed and some, including myself, are absolutely disgusted.

‘Sasha Swire has never mixed within the local community, not even within our local party.

‘I suspect a lot of people will be crossing the Swires off their Christmas card list.

…………

[Cllr Maddy Chapman’s claim that Lady Sasha “has absolutely no class whatsoever”, misses the point. Sasha operates in a class way beyond Maddy’s. Completely different rules apply – Owl]

From a constituent:

If, as she reports, Mrs Swire was her husband’s “part-time” political researcher surely we are due a refund on the £35,000 FULL-TIME salary WE paid her during that time?

Did this “research” for which we paid include endless poor taste remarks about sex and the cupping the testacles of at least one man in public?  Are we due co-author payments?

Who are the “toilet seat” East Devon Tory councillors?  And what does this soubriquet mean?  Were they simply there for Hugo to defacate on?

What really happened with the (young, female) Guatemalan ambassador (we await Hugo’s diary for that one perhaps).

And why and how did Nadine Dorries ever get in the position where (she alleges) she was offered a chance to “feel the mink” under Hugo’s coat in the back of a taxi?

How did Hugo REALLY feel about Claire Wright? [Owl has been asked to insert this photograph as a possible potential diarist clue]:

This constituent can’t wait for Hugo to write HIS diaries …

June 10th: made honey with my bees …..

July 20th: Sasha cupped X’s danglers again – what a lark – the toilet seats were shocked

August 15th: had another unavoidable meeting with toilet seats – God how I want to be back with my honey …..

A Government aided by “superforcasters” who struggle to see into next week and are particularly bad at forecasting the consequences of their own actions.

Andrew Rawnsley www.theguardian.com 

When Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner published their much-discussed book, Superforecasting, one admiring reviewer thought it contained essential lessons for governing. He wrote: “Forecasts have been fundamental to mankind’s journey from a small tribe on the African savannah to a species that can sling objects across the solar system with extreme precision. In physics, we developed models that are extremely accurate across vastly different scales from the sub-atomic to the visible universe. In politics, we bumbled along making the same sort of errors repeatedly.”

Presumably in the hope of improving the government’s powers of prediction, Dominic Cummings, for he was that reviewer, put Superforecasting on the summer reading list that he issued to ministerial advisers. Alas, it does not appear to have enhanced the ability of the prime minister, his visually challenged colleague or anyone else in this government to see into the future. These are members of a regime that struggles to see into next week. They are particularly terrible at forecasting the consequences of their own actions.

The expression on the face of Number 10 is that of a man who never looks where he is going and is then constantly surprised to find that he has stepped in dog excrement. There is an ever lengthening list of things that they could be reasonably expected to have anticipated and yet didn’t. They did not foresee that using an algorithm to depress the A-level grades of thousands of young people would distress them and dismay their parents. They did not foresee that a campaign fronted by an eloquent football star to extend the provision of free school meals would strike a chord with the public. They did not foresee that applying a surcharge to foreign-born workers staffing the NHS would cause a massive backlash.

Multiple debacles, rebellions and reverses have even some of those who were once Boris Johnson’s most fervent cheerleaders in despair. This persistent blundering has flowed from a fundamental inability to read the public mood or get on top of events. Throughout the coronavirus crisis, the government has been constantly behind the curve. How did Mr Cummings put it? “We bumble along making the same sort of errors repeatedly.”

They are no better in their specialist subject of Brexit. When Mr Johnson signed the withdrawal agreement with the EU that he sold to the British public as “fantastic”, he failed to foresee that he would soon afterwards describe the agreement as so dreadful that he would have to threaten to break it. When he made the declaration that he was ready to violate international law, he failed to foresee that this would trigger condemnation from every living former prime minister and many senior Brexiters.

In normal times, this inability to anticipate the consequences of its own decisions would be an embarrassing trait in a government. In the context of the Covid catastrophe, it is a deadly characteristic. When infection rates were surging across Europe at the outset of the pandemic, ministers did not foresee that it would be folly to allow race meetings and football matches to carry on as normal. Among other things they did not foresee was the fatal consequences of decanting elderly patients from hospitals into care homes without first checking whether they were free of the virus.

Seven months into the pandemic, and with alarming signs of a swelling second wave, some have learned from the benefit of experience. Scientists have a better understanding of the virus and doctors have improved their methods of treatment. Yet the government’s skills of prognostication are not showing a matching degree of improvement. As the number of hospitalisations accelerates upwards, roughly doubling every eight days, it has again been found wanting in relation to testing for infection. There is particular anger among MPs and those they represent in virus hotspots, where it is particularly vital that testing happens rapidly, that people are being told there are no appointments available or that they will have to travel hundreds of miles to get a swab.

In response to the outcry, Dido Harding, the Johnson-appointed head of the testing effort in England, tried to argue that the system is the victim of an unanticipated surge in demand. Not so. This spike was both predictable and predicted. Since the early summer, the government has been urging people to return to the office and bring “bustle” back to high streets. Many Britons have been travelling around the country or holidaying abroad. The reopening of schools has brought the usual seasonal spread of start-of-term coughs and sniffles. You didn’t need to be the world’s smartest epidemiologist to anticipate that a large expansion of social contact would increase the potential vectors of infection for disease. And that, in turn, would lead to a surge in demand for tests.

Sometimes ministers have foolishly implied that the public is at fault for putting too much stress on the system. It is true that there are people without symptoms seeking tests because a family member or workmate may have contracted the virus. It is entirely natural that people will take a precautionary approach. “Play it safe” has been the thrust of government advice for months. That has been accompanied by repeated ministerial exhortations to remember that the disease can often be asymptomatic, especially among younger people. Public expectation that the system would have the capacity to provide a test to anyone who wanted one has been further fuelled by the constant prime ministerial hyperbole that the government is building a “world-beating” system. In mid-July, Matt Hancock implied universal availability by urging people to get tested if they had “any doubt” about being infected. Now the health secretary plans to ration access.

The testing chaos, coming in the wake of so many other fiascos, has the Tory press beginning to wonder whether Mr Johnson is fit to be in Number 10. “WHY ARE THEY STILL FAILING THE TEST?” demands the Daily Mail. “Losing Track” and “Johnson Adrift” were the lead editorials on successive days in the Times. The cover headline of the most recent edition of the Spectator, which is usually very friendly to its former editor, asks “Where’s Boris?” and is accompanied by a cartoon depicting him alone in an oarless boat on a heaving sea.

This echoes the wail of Tory backbenchers that the prime minister needs to “get a grip” and “rediscover his mojo” and “give us a sense of direction”. The implication is that the remedy for a wretched performance is for Mr Johnson to impose more of his personality on the government.

This has it precisely the wrong way round. His character is the central source of the repeated inability to anticipate and address challenges. All governments absorb the character traits of the person at the top. The person at the top of this government doesn’t think through the consequences of his actions, is cavalier about detail and bored by complexity, prefers the quick hit of a snappy populist slogan to the steady slog of competent administration. All this was known about him long before the Tory party made him its leader. His flaws as a prime minister are a revelation only to those who wilfully ignored his biography and his record.

He has spent a career living for today and letting tomorrow take care of itself. Colleagues and ex-wives can testify to his compulsion for over-promising and then under-delivering. He has been a gusher of dramatic and bogus predictions of what his government will achieve – “a moonshot” this, a “game-changing” that – because spouting wildly boosterish claims is so much easier than getting stuff done.

Funnily enough, the book Superforecasting identifies one of the core reasons why this government is failing. “The worst forecasters were those with great self-confidence who stuck to their big ideas,” wrote Mr Cummings himself. They are lousy at understanding the world and coming to good judgments about it. “The more successful were those who were cautious, humble, numerate, actively open-minded, looked at many points of view.” Now, which is a better description of the Johnson-Cummings method of government? “Cautious, humble, numerate, actively open-minded, looked at many points of view”? That doesn’t sound like them at all. “Great self-confidence”, which leaves them stubbornly wedded to their “big ideas”? That’s much more like it.

Their biggest idea of the moment is that leaving the EU’s single market without a deal would be fine even in a double-whammy combination with a re-escalation of the coronavirus crisis. Bear in mind his previous record as a soothsayer when the prime minister confidently predicts that a crash-out Brexit would be a “good outcome”. I hazard a guess that this is his most calamitously wrong forecast of all.

• Andrew Rawnsley is Chief Political Commentator of the Observer