Micropub plan for Axminster town centre approved

Plans for a new micropub in the centre of Axminster have been approved – subject to them being able to overcome safety concerns

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com 

East Devon District Council’s planning committee on Wednesday morning granted planning permission to allow a vacant shop in the centre of the town to be turned into a micro-pub.

The unit on Chard Street has been empty September since September 2019 and was most recently a women’s clothing store, and councillors heard that the micropub plans would give an active use to the vacant building.

Mathew Dalton-Aram, agent for the applicant, said: “The UK High Street was facing difficulties before coronavirus for retail businesses to remain viable. Micropubs though are bucking the trend and this pub is intended to be a space for conversation and socialising over a drink where the community can meet on a localised and personalised basis. This will give an active use for the vacant building.”

Questions were raised about how social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic would be applied in the premises, as well as the fact that the premises only have one entrance and exit.

But Chris Rose, the council’s development manager, said the concerns about the size and constrained layout of the unit and its ability to function as a micro-pub without adverse effect on amenity and the safety of both customers and members of the public could be addressed by means of appropriate planning conditions, with the other issues raised are covered by separate legislative regimes and as such should not be sought to be controlled by the planning system.

The empty unit in Chard Street in Axminster which will become a micropub (Image shown to the EDDC DMC)

The empty unit in Chard Street in Axminster which will become a micropub (Image shown to the EDDC DMC)

Recommending approval, he added: “The proposal would bring a vacant commercial unit within the town centre back into active use and against the background of wider changes in the retail market and its declining role in the town centre, it is considered this is likely to retain activity in the town centre will have benefit in supporting its overall function.”

Cllr Andrew Moulding said that this would be bringing a vacant shop into good use and he thought that a micropub will be very popular, while Cllr Ian Hall added: “Axminster has far too many units left empty. The High Streets are struggling and we are trying to get people into the town, and just around the corner is something similar – Costa Coffee – but they serve coffee and not alcohol.”

Cllr Mike Howe added: “If they cannot overcome the risk assessment issues, they cannot open, so it is their problem to overcome and not ours as none of it relates to planning. This is brilliant and let us try and reinvigorate it, and I hope they can overcome the safety issues that I am sure the fire brigade will have.”

Councillors voted by 10 votes to three abstentions to approve the change of use plans.

District Heating Network plan for East Devon’s West End will be sped up

East Devon District Council’s Planning Committee on Wednesday morning unanimously backed plans for a Local Development Order (LDO) for District Heating Networks.

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

Proposals to speed up the implementation of District Heating Networks planned in East Devon’s West End have been unanimously approved.

East Devon District Council’s Planning Committee on Wednesday morning unanimously backed plans for a Local Development Order (LDO) for District Heating Networks.

The LDO will reduce the regulatory processes and delays associated with the submission of planning applications and facilitate faster implementation of the District Heating networks, councillors were told.

Already the Skypark Energy Centre provides hot water and heating to housing in Cranbrook and commercial buildings at Skypark as well as a private wire to the Lidl distribution centre, while the Monkerton Energy Centre is in the process of being commissioned and will provide hot water and heating to housing around Monkerton and Pinhoe and also commercial buildings at the Science Park.

Chris Rose, the council’s development manager, in his report to the meeting, said that this would enable further roll out of decentralised heating systems in East Devon’s West End and would assist in the delivery of the key aim of East Devon Council Plan 2020 – 2040 to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.

He added: “Decentralised heating systems can provide significant carbon emission reduction compared to conventional heating systems and can therefor aid the transition to a low carbon economy.

“Despite the system currently being heated by mains gas there are overall energy system efficiencies with associated carbon benefits, for example heat recovery and a reduction in wasted heat. District Heating Networks benefit from economies of scale with one central boiler operating far more efficiently than individual boilers

“It is far more practical, cost saving and energy saving to install the DHN during the construction phase of development rather than trying to retrofit a system and as the network is enhanced and enlarged it enables greater economies of scale and therefor greater low carbon benefits.”

Approval of the LDO would eliminates the requirement to obtain planning permission to install certain infrastructure and would ‘speed up the process for the infrastructure to allow the transition to a low or zero carbon future’, Mr Rose added.

Recommending approval, Cllr Mike Howe said that the committee had two choices – either approve this and then try and force the companies using the DHN to use renewable energy, or install gas boilers in every single house. He said: “That would be wrong so this is a no brainer. This is not perfect but a step in the right direction,” adding that the current planning system could not demand any developer build zero carbon homes as the council has no policies calling for it.

Cllr Olly Davey added that he thought that the DHN could be compatible with moving to a low carbon future, and added: “Hopefully in the not too distant future the facility in Cranbrook will be switched over to low carbon, and when it does, every house will become low carbon.”

Councillors unanimously backed the LDO which grants Permitted Development rights for District Heating transmission and distribution networks for development such as the installation of pipes, cables and wires, heat exchange equipment, street furniture, and ancillary engineering works in the defined area of land around Cranbrook and Clyst Honiton in the West End of East Devon.

Development is not permitted by this Order where any above ground cabinets, buildings, structures or enclosures would be greater than 1 metre in height above ground level, any above ground cabinets, buildings, structures or enclosures would be greater than 2.5 cubic metres in external volume; or any pipework installed above ground and outside any enclosure is greater than 2 metres in length.

Coronavirus vaccine hopes raised by success of early trials

Hopes for a successful Covid-19 vaccine have been boosted after two leading groups achieved positive early results.

Rhys Blakely, Science Correspondent | Tom Whipple, Science Editor | Robert Miller www.thetimes.co.uk 

In a phase-one trial involving about 1,000 British volunteers, a University of Oxford vaccine appears to have stimulated the desired response from the immune system, The Times understands.

The subjects are understood to have shown encouraging levels of neutralising antibodies, thought to be important in protecting against viral infection, and there were no serious side-effects.

The results also indicated that another aspect of the immune system, known as T-cells, was mobilised. The researchers have yet to prove that this combined immune response is enough to protect against infection but if it had not been found it would have been a setback. “The Oxford team are very much still in the fight,” a source said.

Moderna, an American biotech company, said yesterday that 45 people who had been given its candidate vaccine had displayed a “robust” immune response. An efficacy trial involving 30,000 Americans is due to begin on July 27.

A third group, Biontech, a German company in partnership with the American drugmaker Pfizer, plans to recruit 30,000 trial subjects in the US. It has two candidate vaccines that were given “fast track” status by regulators this week, allowing for quicker testing.

Moderna and Biontech are developing RNA vaccines, a technology that could allow large numbers of doses to be produced quickly but which is unproven.

The Moderna trial results, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, were greeted as “really quite good news” by Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The “gold standard” of protection against a viral infection involved neutralising antibodies, he said. “The data from the study, small numbers as it may be, are pretty clear that this vaccine is capable of inducing quite good [levels] of neutralising antibodies,” he added. There was also evidence of a response from T-cells.

Astrazeneca, the drugmaker in a partnership with Oxford, cautioned that news on whether the university’s vaccine worked was unlikely before data was gathered from much larger trials towards the end of the year.

Nonetheless, the developments boosted hopes of a swift economic rebound and sent shares in London-listed drug companies sharply higher.

Astrazeneca and Glaxosmithkline (GSK) were among the top risers in the FTSE 100 index, which ended the day 112.90 points, or 1.8 per cent, higher at 6,292.95, but down 16.6 per cent since the start of the year. Shares in GSK finished up 2.9 per cent at £16.50 and Astrazeneca rose 5.2 per cent to £89.96.

Patrik Lang, the head of equity and global strategy at Julius Baer, the private bank, said: “News on the Covid-19 vaccine development has provided a required shot in the arm to markets [and] we also see sentiment improving on consumer spending across the United States and Europe.”

Daniel Davis, a professor of immunology at the University of Manchester and the author of The Beautiful Cure, a book about the immune system, said: “If confirmed, this is genuinely thrilling news. And it is truly wonderful to see how fast this has been achieved. But of course, there’s still a long way to go. We now know that the vaccine can trigger an immune response in people. But next, we need to find out if the immune response triggered by the vaccine is powerful enough to protect us from Covid-19. It may stop symptoms or transmission and hopefully do both.”

Astrazeneca has agreed to supply 100 million doses of the Oxford vaccine to Britain with delivery in September or October and manufacturing plans are well under way. It also plans to supply the US with 300 million doses by about the same time. It has so far secured global manufacturing capacity for two billion doses.

A further 10,000 trial subjects have been recruited by the Oxford team in Britain, along with about 5,000 in Brazil and 2,000 in South Africa. A trial in the United States will involve as many as 30,000 more.

Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology at the University of Edinburgh, was not surprised by the early findings, which tallied with those seen in previous vaccines that the same researchers had made for other diseases. “But it is good to see it, nevertheless,” she said. “The key question is, do these responses protect? Protection is not a given. We need to wait and see.”

Recent studies have shown that the antibodies that naturally occur when people catch Covid-19 can quickly fade, raising concerns that immunity could be lost in months. This could affect the success of vaccines but Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said that other parts of the immune system may also be important.

“Although the antibodies may wane, we don’t know if that means that you don’t have longer lasting immunity. That is something we have to understand that has real implications for future vaccine development,” he said.

Sir Mene Pangalos, head of pharmaceutical discovery research at Astrazeneca, told The Times last week that data from the larger trials, which will show whether or not the Oxford vaccine works, would come towards the end of the year.

A team from Imperial College London is developing another RNA vaccine and is led by Robin Shattock. He said that the Moderna and Biontech results were encouraging but added: “Should either of the candidates be shown to work, the biggest challenge may be making them globally accessible where issues of dose, cost and production will be key.”

Testing times for drug makers

Oxford
Oxford is testing its vaccine on 11,000 volunteers in the UK and 37,000 more are being recruited in South Africa, Brazil and the US. Choosing regions where infections are rising should help show quickly whether the jab protects people.

Professor Sarah Gilbert has said that we could know whether it works by next month. AstraZeneca, who will make the vaccine, says the end of the year. Much could depend on the stance taken by UK regulators.

Oxford uses a harmless chimpanzee virus to carry part of the coronavirus genetic code into the vaccinated person’s cells. This should arm the immune system to attack the real coronavirus.

Moderna
Moderna’s vaccine has produced a “robust” immune response in a small group of people. Its goal is to have a vaccine ready by the end of the year or early next year. Stéphane Bancel, the chief executive, said that it may only reduce the risk of disease by half.

BioNTech
The German company is partnering with Pfizer, the US drug company, and is developing a so-called RNA vaccine. They are potentially very easy to produce at scale. As yet, however, they are unproven and an RNA vaccine has never been licensed for use.

Jeremy Hunt’s dismal legacy in the NHS and social care

Here are letters published in the Guardian in response to an article written by Jeremy Hunt “We Tories must keep our word – and fix the social care crisis now”  (13 July)- reproduced below

www.theguardian.com 

How does Jeremy Hunt sleep at night (We Tories must keep our word – and fix the social care crisis now, 13 July- see below)? It should be remembered that he was a high-profile health secretary for many years in a government that undertook the relentless process of “streamlining” the NHS, which effectively eroded all its spare capacity; of resisting all attempts to pay NHS staff a decent wage for the work that they do; and of intensifying the privatisation of the increasingly slimline – ie, attractive and potentially profitable – product of his labours. And all the while, his government so emasculated council finances that it became, in effect, impossible for them to manage their responsibilities in the social care sector.

For him now to be the chair of the Commons health and social care select committee that is responsible for advising on how to deal with the mess he left behind, and to set himself up in his article as some sort of people’s champion, is incredible. If he could let us all know how he manages to get a good night’s sleep with that legacy from his past, I’m sure millions of people, patients and staff, who are suffering the effects of his tenure as health secretary would benefit, as would the NHS, which could thereby probably save a fortune in prescriptions for antidepressants and sleeping pills.
John Westbrook
Manchester

• Jeremy Hunt writing in the Guardian? I’m speechless, and only slightly mollified by Alan Marsden’s letter on the opposite page citing Hunt, among others, as culpable.
Jeanette Hamilton
Buxton, Derbyshire

• Jeremy Hunt “welcomes” the fact that the prime minister has committed to finding a long-term solution to the crisis in social care. In the election campaign, Boris Johnson said he had a solution to social care, which is rather different. He also said he had an “oven-ready” deal with the EU. These statements were of a different order to “get Brexit done” – some sort of vague promise. Since he now says he is committed to finding a solution to social care, and we don’t yet have a deal with the EU, they were simply not true. Or, to put it more bluntly, they were lies.
Norman Gowar
London

• Jeremy Hunt has a short memory. He advocates introducing Andrew Dilnot’s proposal for a cap on care costs. But the Dilnot proposal is already on the statute book – see section 15 of the Care Act 2014, passed by parliament while Mr Hunt was the health secretary. All that is needed to bring it into force is a current minister’s signature.
Christopher Packer
London

• Jeremy Hunt is right that we need “a once-and-for-all fix” for the care crisis, but his suggested solutions will not provide the answer. The Dilnot cap on care costs does not address inequity – it would particularly benefit wealthier older people and their families. It wouldn’t provide extra resources to the underfunded care system. Instead it would substitute public funding for private funding while adding a new and complex system of means-testing. And it wouldn’t support the much-needed integration of care with health. For these reasons, and others including its cost, the Conservative government in which Mr Hunt served did not implement the Dilnot cap.

A better approach would be to agree a new vision for care that enables older and disabled people and their families to get the support they want, when and where they want it. Then we could debate how to fund it fairly, simply and sustainably.
Stephen Burke
Director, United for All Ages

We Tories must keep our word – and fix the social care crisis now 

Ending the crisis in social care has been a long-held ambition of those who enter Downing Street from whichever party – and was certainly one of mine as health secretary. But coronavirus has removed any possible excuse for the delay, as it has brutally exposed the fragility of the sector – alongside the bravery and service of those who work in it.

As we grasp the nettle of social care reform and prepare for a second wave, we must learn the lessons of recent months.

When the peak of the pandemic approached and NHS beds were desperately needed, vulnerable people were discharged from hospitals into care homes without proper testing. Other countries introduced restrictions on care home visitors at an early stage in the pandemic, and required people being discharged to care homes to either have a negative test result, or to be quarantined for 14 days in a separate facility. It is essential that we adopt examples of best practice.

But we also need to be honest about the underlying issues in the sector. When, as health secretary, I negotiated an extra £20bn for the NHS to go alongside a new 10-year plan, I argued strongly that the social care sector should also receive extra funding. I was told this would follow – but, two years on, we are still waiting.

It is very welcome that the prime minister has committed to finding a long-term solution. But if he is going to deliver a new deal, we should be clear about what that entails: first, a long-term solution that addresses inequity in the current system, such as Andrew Dilnot’s eminently sensible proposal for a cap on care costs, or free personal care as recommended by the Lords economic affairs committee. It is highly significant that this cross-party committee chaired by Lord Forsyth, a self-described Thatcherite, advocated an expansion of state responsibility.

But second, and equally important, is the need to increase annual funding available to local authorities. The Health Foundation estimates that demographic pressures and rises in the “national living wage” alone will add £4bn a year by the end of this parliament, and will require significantly more to address the sector’s long-term needs. An inquiry into social care by the health and social care committee, which I chair, aims to identify how much extra money the government must commit over the next five years in order to fix the gap in social care funding and reduce pressure on the NHS.

Our annual winter crisis arises because the wraparound care people need is not provided, so they end up in A&E and cannot be discharged from hospitals to social care. The head of the NHS, Simon Stevens, has acknowledged that the issue needs to be resolved within the next year. As he told our committee, not to do so would be “inconceivable”.

We have heard some harrowing evidence. Take Anna, a doctor in her 30s who is unable to practise because of a genetic condition that causes chronic severe pain. Dependent on social care, her life is structured around hourly payments for showering, dressing or preparing food. She lives in fear of a cut in her care hours.

Or Dorothy, who, in her 90s, lived in her own home before a series of emergency admissions to hospital. She wanted to return home but the care she needed was never put in place. An array of NHS and local authority officials dealt with her case – her daughter counted 101 people in total. But, as Dorothy said: “Everyone who is meant to have helped has done harm.” Because, despite all those brilliant professionals, there was never any co-ordination or teamwork. Dorothy spent seven months of her last year in hospital before her death.

Better integration of hospital and social care services could have given her those months at home. The division between the NHS and social care goes back to its founding when medical care was made “free” but social care was means-tested. Now, with more people living for longer with multiple health conditions, this distinction has become artificial and destructive.

As has another distinction, namely the stark divide between care workers and hospital staff. Social care workers describe feeling like “underdogs” and “Cinderellas”, demoralised to see shops offering generous discounts to NHS staff but not to them. One care worker described people tutting at her for wearing her uniform in the street between home visits. Social care workers need a proper career path and to be given the recognition they deserve. The introduction of care certificates marked an important start, but more needs to be done.

It is no surprise that annual staff turnover is 30% in social care, rising to more than 40% in the home care sector. When “cost per minute is the basis for payments to home care staff, do we really expect our older people to be looked after with dignity and respect?

Britain spends a lower percentage of GDP on social care than countries such as Denmark, Norway or the Netherlands. We Conservatives always said the purpose of the painful measures taken in 2010 was short-term: to put the economy on its feet so we would be in a better position to increase funding for public services. We have delivered that for the NHS – now we must be as good as our word for social care. A once-and-for-all fix for this crisis cannot come too soon.

 

We can’t afford to indulge this Toad of Toad Hall model of mindless road-building

Road plans will scupper CO2 targets, report says

By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst www.bbc.co.uk 

The vast majority of emissions cuts from electric cars will be wiped out by new road-building, a report says.

The government says vehicle emissions per mile will fall as zero-emissions cars take over Britain’s roads.

But the report says the 80% of the CO2 savings from clean cars will be negated by the £27bn planned roads programme.

It adds that if ministers want a “green recovery” the cash would be better spent on public transport, walking, cycling, and remote-working hubs.

And they point out that the electric cars will continue to increase local air pollution through particles eroding from brakes and tyres.

The calculations have been made by an environmental consultancy, Transport for Quality of Life, using data collected by Highways England.

The paper estimates that a third of the predicted increase in emissions would come from construction – including energy for making steel, concrete and asphalt.

A third would be created by increased vehicle speeds on faster roads.

And a further third would be caused by extra traffic generated by new roads stimulating more car-dependent housing, retail parks and business parks.

New roads, more traffic?

Its authors say history shows that building roads almost always generates more traffic.

The report says even with the government’s most optimistic estimate of the adoption rate for electric vehicles, emissions from trunk roads and motorways in England are not on track to meet “net zero“ by 2050.

A government spokesperson told BBC News the report is based on old data.

“This assessment is wholly incorrect and doesn’t take into account the benefits from the massive surge in electric vehicles,” he said.

“The Road Investment Strategy is consistent with our ambition to improve air quality and decarbonise transport.”

The report’s lead author, Lynn Sloman, said the electric car revolution would happen too slowly for transport to achieve the UK’s carbon-cutting goals.

“If we are to meet the legally-binding carbon budgets, we need to make big cuts in carbon emissions over the next decade,” she said.

“That will require faster adoption of electric cars – but it will also require us to reduce vehicle mileage by existing cars.

“Unfortunately, the Government’s £27 billion road programme will make things worse, not better.”

The government accepts that overall mileage should be cut.

But it says the impact of the new roads programme on emissions will be a fraction of the report’s predicted figure.

The AA president, Edmund King, supports some road-building. He told BBC News said: “We believe post-lockdown that more people will continue to work from home, drive less and cycle and walk more.

“But even with investment in broadband and active travel, we will still need road investment – particularly to overcome the congestion hotspots to help get our goods to market.”

‘Mindless’ building?

Ms Sloman, who works regularly as a consultant for the Department for Transport, responded: “More roads just mean more cars. Decades of road investment have not solved congestion.

“Sustained lobbying for more money for roads, leaving less for public transport, cycling and walking, is one of the reasons we now face a climate emergency. We can’t afford any more to indulge this Toad of Toad Hall model of mindless road-building.”

She also says the government can’t ignore the continuing air pollution that will be caused by particles from the brakes and tyres of electric cars.

This pollution could actually be increased if the fashion for heavy battery-powered SUVs continues.

Ms Sloman said: “This is an institutional problem. There are people in the Department for Transport and Highways England who have built their careers on big road building budgets, and they won’t easily give them up.

“But there are also some officials – and perhaps some politicians – who are starting to recognise that the climate emergency means we need a radically different approach to transport.”

The Department for Transport is currently consulting on a decarbonisation strategy, and will publish its plan later in the year.

 

“Failing” Grayling fails to become chair of intelligence and security committee after Tory challenge – The ultimate fail!

Boris’ stitch-up un-stitched!

Here’s how – Owl

How Julian Lewis Pulled Off A Very British Coup To Chair The Intelligence And Security Committee

Who he, Lewis? And the news

The look on Chris Grayling’s face said it all. The former minister had breezed into the first meeting of the newly convened Intelligence and Security Committee in the Macmillan Room in Portcullis House, fully expecting to be the only Tory name on the ballot paper.

But it turned out that Macmillan’s ghost hovered over proceedings as much as his portrait, as the day of the short knives produced a spectacular shock. Grayling was a picture of incredulity and puzzlement as he saw Julian Lewis’ candidacy in black and white next to his, before the swift realisation kicked in that he had been outmanoeuvred.

The ensuing secret ballot yielded the inevitable result: 5 votes for Lewis (his own, plus three Labour and one SNP vote), 4 for Grayling (himself, plus three Tory MPs). The election of the person who now oversees MI6, MI5 and other UK security agencies was itself a masterpiece of cloak and dagger politics, precision timing and superior intelligence gathering. The Tory whips were furious, and No.10 more furious still at this very British coup.

Grayling had made clear his own intention to be chair two days ago, but Lewis had left it until the day of the committee’s first meeting to inform its clerk that he was putting himself forward. There was no prior notice for the government, as unlike select committees, the ISC picks its own chairman from its own members.

It was a moment of which Lewis’s old friend John Bercow would have been proud. Just as Bercow became Commons Speaker on the back of Labour votes, the veteran Tory backbencher clinched the chairmanship of arguably the country’s most important parliamentary watchdog thanks to Opposition backing.

Lewis, 68, was undeniably better qualified to chair the ISC than Grayling. A former member of the committee from 2010 to 2015, a former defence select committee chairman and a former Naval reservist, he has long experience of security and intelligence issues. Even Grayling’s allies admit his closest involvement with security issues was when he was transport secretary (which does mean being on the emergency Cobra committee from time to time).

Lewis was so respected that he secured the nomination of the prime minister for the committee, which is unusual in parliament in that its entire membership requires the prior approval of No.10 in consultation with the leader of the Opposition. Although it is up to the Commons and Lords to then approve its membership, the sifting process – on grounds ostensibly of national security – makes it unique.‌

It is perhaps that prior approval that fuelled the strong sense of betrayal felt in Downing Street when the news came through. The decision to swiftly withdraw the whip from Lewis underscored the anger, with No.10 sources muttering that his “duplicity” had to be punished. Most embarrassingly of all, chief whip Mark Spencer had been caught cold on an issue where whipping was in theory not allowed – the statute that governs the ISC states expressly that the chair of the ISC is “chosen by its members”, not No.10.

Whips have been suggesting that Lewis had assured them he would vote for Grayling, only to renege on the promise. The MP may refuse to answer that charge if asked about it, but he and the Opposition members may have left no traces of collusion. The committee itself is shrouded in adherence to the Official Secrets Act, so the ironies are multiple.‌

Lewis is so idiosyncratic that he is the only one of 650 MPs in the Commons not to allow constituents to contact him by email, insisting instead that they use letter, fax or phone to do so. He is thought unlikely to have left an evidence trail of any plans for the committee chairmanship.

Lewis’s security experience attracted him to the Opposition members, but it was his “fierce independence” and “consensual” approach that was the clincher. And throughout his career the New Forest East MP has certainly been no leader’s poodle. He was among the hardcore Brexiteers who consistently voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal, but he also voted against David Cameron’s bid to launch military action in Syria, and against the Lib-Con coalition increasing student tuition fees. Maverick is his middle name.

Yet Lewis also had early experience of pulling off audacious actions behind enemy lines. As a graduate research student, he managed to infiltrate the Labour party in the 1970s, helping ‘moderates’ recapture part of the Newham North East local constituency party where MP Reg Prentice was targeted by the Left. Ultimately, Prentice had the crucial vote that brought down James Callaghan and ushered in Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 victory.

There is little likelihood of Lewis crossing the floor to join Labour as Prentice did, but the stripping of the Tory whip means he is now as officially “independent” as an MP as much as he was figuratively. Some Conservative MPs are already speculating that the whole affair proves the need to axe Spencer as chief whip and perhaps move him in what is seen as a more likely reshuffle, possibly to Defra.

The decision by Johnson to remove the whip was also further evidence of his own ruthless approach to party management, last seen when former cabinet ministers like David Gauke and Philip Hammond were effectively booted out of the party over Brexit, despite their willingness to return to the fold.‌

The difficulty for No.10 now is just what next step to take. In theory it could take the “nuclear option” and oust Lewis from the committee by tabling a Commons motion of selection, replacing him with another Tory MP, and thereby allowing a fresh internal election of a new chairman of the ISC. A 90-minute debate would be needed, followed by a vote on the floor of the Commons.

The danger is that would lay bare just how party political the chairmanship would be, itself seen by even some of the PM’s allies as a move that could undermine the committee and its relationship with the intelligence agencies – all of which need to be protected from any charge of party politics in their scrutiny.

The government would have to act very quickly too, and it may be too late to get any motion on the Order Paper in time. Tomorrow morning the ISC meets to discuss when to publish the ‘Russia report’, believed to cover donations to the Tory party among other issues. It is likely that the committee will recommend very swift publication.

In the latest James Bond movies, the chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee is Gareth Mallory, played by Ralph Fiennes. Mallory goes on to replace Judi Dench as ’M”. Few would consider Lewis to be as dashing as Fiennes’s character and he would make an unlikely spy. But no matter what happens to him next, the spectre of high-handed incompetence is again haunting Boris Johnson’s government.

 

Michael Gove – Practice what you Preach!

Asked if face masks should become compulsory in shops, Mr Gove told the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday: “I don’t think mandatory, no.”

“But I would encourage people to wear face masks when they are inside, in an environment where they are likely to be mixing with others and where the ventilation may not be as good as it might.

“I think that it is basic good manners, courtesy and consideration, to wear a face mask if you are, for example, in a shop.

“It is always better to trust people’s common sense.”

 

This picture appears on the front page of today’s Telegraph. The caption reads: “Cabinet colleagues Liz Truss and Michael Gove visit the same Pret a Manger in Westminster on Tuesday, one wearing a mask and one without.”

 

Study indicates lockdown significantly reduced coronavirus

The largest study to date examining rates of coronavirus infection in the general public has found that there was a significant reduction of the virus before lockdown restrictions were eased.

According to researchers at Imperial College London, the rates of infection fell during May, the last month of lockdown, halving every eight to nine days.

There were on average 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people, with an overall reproduction number of 0.57 – lower than previously reported.

Other key findings were that young adults, aged 18 to 24, were more likely to test positive than other age groups, underscoring the need for this age group to adhere to social distancing measures to protect vulnerable friends and family, and that those Asian ethnicity were more likely to test positive than those of white ethnicity.

Also, care home staff and healthcare workers were more likely to be infected with COVID-19 during lockdown than the general population, and anyone who had recent contact with a known COVID-19 case was 24 times more likely to test positive than those with no such contacts.

The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) programme, commissioned by DHSC and carried out by a team of scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI, provides a baseline for further research a clearer picture of the spread of the virus to help inform measures tailored to limit its spread.

“Community testing is a vital step in ongoing efforts to mitigate the pandemic, but to be successful this must be based on robust scientific evidence and sound statistics,” said Professor Paul Elliott, FMedSci, director of the programme at Imperial College London.

“Through this surveillance programme with DHSC and Ipsos MORI we’re gathering the critical knowledge base necessary to underpin community testing and facilitate a greater understanding of the prevalence of COVID-19 in every corner of England.”

In the second part of the programme (REACT-2), various antibody tests have been assessed for accuracy and ease of use at home.

Plans are underway to roll this out to 100,000 people to identify the levels of antibodies against the virus that causes COVID-19 in the general public.

Treasury forecaster’s three stark predictions for Britain’s economy

Richard Partington www.theguardian.com 


The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s official forecaster, has published three possible scenarios for the UK economy as it tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic:

Central scenario

The economy recovers more slowly than previously anticipated, with gross domestic product (GDP) regaining its pre-virus peak by the end of 2022. GDP falls by 12.4% in 2020.

Business investment is 6% lower over five years than expected by the OBR in March before Covid-19 spread. Job losses and business failures are significant. Scarring caused by job losses and lower levels of business investment mean the level of GDP after inflation remains 3% lower at the start of 2025 than anticipated in March.

Unemployment more than doubling from 1.3 million last year to 3.5 million in 2021. Outstripping the damage inflicted by the 2008 financial crisis, the unemployment rate peaks at 12% in the final three months of 2020.

The hit to the economy, coupled with the rise in state spending to cushion the blow, results in a sharp rise in government borrowing this year. The budget deficit – the shortfall between income from taxes and expenditure – hits £322bn, or 16% of GDP.

The UK’s national debt – the sum total of every budget deficit recorded in history – increases above 100% GDP for the first time since the early 1960s in all years of the scenario.

Best-case scenario

Activity rebounds relatively quickly, similar to the OBR’s central scenario published in April during the early stages of the Covid-19 emergency. GDP returns to the pre-virus peak by the end of March next year, and there is no enduring economic scarring.

Unemployment still however reaches a peak of 10% in the three months to September. As many as 1.9 million people would be out of work next year, as employment begins to gradually rise again.

GDP still also falls by 10.6% this year, although snaps back rapidly next year.

The limited damage to employment helps to protect household finances, enabling a recovery in consumer spending to levels close to that expected in March.

The government’s budget deficit hits £263bn this year, or 13% of GDP, before gradually dropping back by 2025 to end up near the levels expected before coronavirus struck.

Worst-case scenario

Economic output recovers even more slowly, returning to its pre-virus peak only by 2024. This results in a more significant loss of business investment, company failures and persistently high levels of unemployment.

Due to lasting economic scarring caused by the depth of the crisis and slow recovery, GDP after inflation is 6% lower at the start of 2025 than was expected in March 2020.

Unemployment peaks at 13% in the first three months of 2021, in a jobs crisis worse than the period of high unemployment under the Thatcher government of the 1980s. As many as 4 million people would be out of work next year.

GDP plunges by 14.3% this year, marking the worst recession for three centuries. The severe blow to household finances from the sharp increase in unemployment causes a severe decline in consumer spending, hurting the economy. Household consumption does not return to its pre-virus peak at all in the five-year scenario.

Due to the economic collapse and higher levels of state spending necessary, the budget deficit reaches£391bn, or 21% of GDP.

Rates of new COVID cases are no longer declining in the UK according to new COVID Symptom Study data

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study data, rates of new COVID cases have stopped declining with over 23,000 suspected cases in the UK.

covid.joinzoe.com 


According to the latest COVID Symptom Study data, rates of new COVID cases have stopped declining with over 23,000 suspected cases in the UK.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures, there are currently 1,472 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 04 July 2020 (excluding care homes) [*]. The data suggests no decline from last week (1,445 cases). The latest figures were based on the data from almost 3 million users, 11,639 swab tests done between 21 June to 04 July (a full regional breakdown can be found here).

The latest prevalence figures estimate that 23,459 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID and highlights a big regional difference across the UK. While nations like Northern Ireland have almost no active cases, the rates for other English regions, like the Midlands are showing high numbers. The Midlands has 6,556 predicted symptomatic COVID cases compared to 2,254 in the North West.

This estimate is in line with the most recent ONS Infection survey in which 25,000 people in England were estimated to be infected with COVID-19 during the two week period that goes from the 14th to the 27th of June. The latest prevalence map  also indicates that parts of Wales currently have high numbers of predicted symptomatic COVID. This new prevalence data based on large numbers allows the COVID Symptom Study to look at the country in a much more detailed way than other current data sources.

The data science team at ZOE and King’s College London have this week updated the way it calculates prevalence figures. Due to the increasing number of longer-term sufferers of COVID and the influx of new data from swab tests the model has been adjusted to remove the long term sufferers who will be studied separately. This means the new prevalence figures are easier to interpret and reflect the change.

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments: 

“It is disappointing to see that the number of daily new cases is no longer falling as they have been in previous weeks, this could be a temporary blip or due to the easing of lockdown and the amount of social contact slowly increasing. Importantly our updated analysis of the prevalence is still continuing to show that The Midlands and Wales are key areas in the country where the amount of COVID is remaining relatively high. It is important that we keep a close eye on these areas.

With the growing number of people suffering for extended periods of time, we are going to be focusing on these long term sufferers to help us research causes and potential treatments. But in order for this to be possible, we need all our users to continue to log in, if they have been ill and have got better.”

Additional notes

[*] This analysis requires swab testing, which was kindly provided by the Department of Health and Social Care for England. As Scotland and Wales are not yet offering tests to app users, we provided indirect estimates using countrywide averages and wide confidence limits.  Testing is happening in Northern Ireland, but the number of participants is too few to generate an accurate estimate. These figures exclude care homes as there is not enough data from the app to estimate this population.

Flood strategy ‘at odds with Boris Johnson push for mass housing’

New plan stops short of banning any new building on land at the highest risk of flooding! – Owl

Josh Halliday www.theguardian.com 

The government’s long-awaited strategy for tackling floods in England does not go far enough and appears to conflict with Boris Johnson’s “build, build, build” plan for more housing, experts have said.

Billed by ministers as the most comprehensive flood defence plan in a decade, the fresh approach will mean more money spent on natural solutions to counter floods, such as capturing water on fields.

But the plan, unveiled on Tuesday, stopped short of banning any new building on land at the highest risk of flooding, disappointing experts, local authorities and flood-hit communities.

Prof Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist at the University of Reading, said the government’s pledge to review house building on floodplains did not “sound in tune” with the prime minister’s commitment to cutting red tape to build new homes more quickly under “Project Speed”.

Cloke said: “A fortnight ago Boris was attacking ‘newt counting’ and bemoaning the pace of progress in the UK. Dealing with flooding shows precisely the difficulties behind his promise to build better, faster and greener. Sometimes being better and greener requires building more slowly and carefully, or we risk long-term economic and social costs that we cannot afford.”

The government pledged in its 2020 budget to spend £5.2bn on flood defences by 2027, which it said would create about 2,000 new flood and coastal projects, and improve the protection of 336,000 properties in England.

Academics welcomed the investment in natural flood solutions, such as hollows to catch floodwater, and the government’s support for making properties more resilient to floods.

George Eustice, the environment secretary, said the government was considering giving the Environment Agency more powers to prevent building on high-risk floodplains but stopped short of saying that fewer homes should be built in these areas.

About 20,000 homes a year are built on land at the highest risk of flooding in England, equating to one in 10 of all new homes since 2013.

Planning policy says housing should be based in areas at the least risk of flooding, yet local authorities, which face penalties if they miss house-building targets, say they feel powerless to stop developments and are concerned these construction projects will only increase in number.

Heather Shepherd, of the National Flood Forum, which supports at-risk communities, said the government was “asking for problems” by continuing to build on floodplains and plug new properties into ageing infrastructure. “If you’re to think of nature as a solution then our floodplains become precious and a resource to mitigate flooding. If we build on them we’re taking away a natural way of managing flood risk,” she said.

Shaun Davies, the Labour leader of Telford and Wrekin council, Shropshire, which had weeks of floods in February, said there was little in the new government approach to reassure residents.

Davies said he raised concerns with Eustice in February about the conversion of an old power station into 1,000 new homes on the Shropshire floodplain but that that development was still going ahead.

The insurance firm Zurich said the extra cash to help flood-hit homeowners recover from damage “misses the point” and that at-risk residents need financial support to defend their homes “before extreme weather strikes – not after they have been flooded”.

Eustice said: “Our record investment and ambitious policies will better protect homes, schools, hospitals and businesses, but we also recognise that we cannot prevent flooding entirely, which is why we will ensure that communities at high risk are more resilient.”

‘Compelling’ evidence air pollution worsens coronavirus – study

There is “compelling” evidence that air pollution significantly increases coronavirus infections, hospital admissions and deaths, according to the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date.

Damian Carrington www.theguardian.com

The research indicates that a small, single-unit increase in people’s long-term exposure to pollution particles raises infections and admissions by about 10% and deaths by 15%. The study took into account more than 20 other factors, including average population density, age, household size, occupation and obesity.

There is growing evidence from Europe, the US and China that dirty air makes the impact of Covid-19 worse. But the study of the outbreak in the Netherlands is unique because the worst air pollution there is not in cities but in some rural areas, due to intensive livestock farming.

This allows the “big city effect” to be ruled out, which is the idea that high air pollution simply coincides with urban populations whose density and deprivation may make them more susceptible to the virus.

The scientists are clear they have not proven a causal link between air pollution and worse coronavirus impacts. Conclusive evidence will only come with large amounts of data on individual people, which is not yet available, rather than average data for regions as used in the analysis.

But scientists said it was important to do the best research possible as understanding the link may be important in dealing with further Covid-19 outbreaks and could signal where subsequent waves will hit the hardest.

Many scientists agree that air pollution is likely to be increasing the number and severity of Covid-19 infections, as dirty air is already known to inflame the lungs and cause respiratory and heart disease that make people more vulnerable. But not all agree that the evidence so far is good enough to demonstrate a large impact.

“What I was struck by was this really was a strong relationship,” said Prof Matthew Cole, who conducted the research with his colleagues Ceren Ozgen and Eric Strobl at the University of Birmingham, UK. Unlike most studies to date, the paper has been reviewed by independent scientists and accepted for publication in a journal, Environmental and Resource Economics.

The team concluded: “Using detailed data we find compelling evidence of a positive relationship between air pollution, and particularly [fine particle] concentrations, and Covid-19 cases, hospital admissions and deaths. This relationship persists even after controlling for a wide range of explanatory [factors].”

The most prominent previous study was conducted by Harvard University researchers and found an 8% increase in coronavirus deaths for a single-unit rise in fine particle pollution. Cole said: “We used data at much finer resolution, with the average size of the 355 Dutch municipalities being 95 km2 compared to the 3,130 km2 for a US county.”

“This means we can more precisely capture each region’s characteristics, including pollution exposure,” he said. The new analysis also uses Covid-19 data up to 5 June 2020, allowing it to capture almost the full wave of the epidemic.

An additional factor considered was the Netherlands carnival gatherings that take place in late February, particularly in the livestock farming regions in the south and east of the country. This is where coronavirus cases were highest and where air pollution is highest, due to the ammonia emitted from livestock farms, which forms particle pollution. Coles’ team used statistical methods to estimate the impact of these gatherings. “But it did not knock out the effects of pollution, which I really thought it would,” he said.

Among the other factors taken into account were average income, level of education, smoking, share of population receiving incapacity benefits and closeness to international borders.

“As analyses of a possible link between air pollution and Covid-19 progress we are beginning to see much better studies emerge,” said Prof Frank Kelly, at Imperial College London, UK. “This new study appears to be the best to date.”

He said the work used high quality data and controlled for multiple possible confounding issues. “Further research elsewhere is required to confirm these findings, but we have now reached a point in the pandemic where datasets are robust enough to ask the question,” he said.

Prof Francesca Dominici, who led the Harvard Study, praised the work as “very good” and agreed that it added to her team’s work. She said it was important to examine the relationship between air pollution and Covid-19 outcomes across many countries, as each country’s data would have its own strengths and weaknesses and different confounding factors can be at play.

“Air pollution is not yet getting enough attention because of the slow peer-review process [for academic studies]” Dominici said. “But hopefully as this and other studies are published, the topic will get more attention and most importantly will affect policy.”

However, Prof Mark Goldberg, at McGill University in Canada, warned that averaging data across a region masked the variations among individuals and could mask other potential explanations for the correlation between dirty air and coronavirus. He is concerned that over-interpreting the correlation distracts from other important factors.

“The issue with severe cases is social and economic deprivation – which correlates with air pollution – and [underlying health] conditions,” he said. “I see it in Montreal: the poorest areas with high numbers of people living together, on low incomes and working multiple jobs were hardest hit.”

Cole accepts that only individual-level data will conclusively resolve the question of a link. “We can’t rule out [some unknown factor] until the data gets better. But it’s difficult to know what that would be.”

New Deputy Mayor appointed before botched vote

Obvious tensions, chaotic scenes, an accidental vote and a councillor locked in a toilet – this was what greeted residents who tuned into the first virtual Honiton Town Council meeting last night.

Welcome to the “new normal” – Owl

Joseph Bulmer honiton.nub.news 

It was the first meeting of Honiton Town Council since the Coronavirus lock down began, it was also the first time the council has held a meeting online.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic councillors voted to suspend an Annual General Meeting of the council. Council AGMs usually involve the election of a new mayor and deputy mayor but due to the current circumstances councillors voted to suspend the meeting.

This means that the current mayor, John Zarczynski, will keep his position for another year. However, due to the resignation of councillor Duncan Sheridan Shaw earlier this year councillors had to elect a new deputy mayor.

Councillor Carol Gilson was voted in as the new deputy mayor, with six councillors voting in favour of her appointment, two against and one abstention.

Councillors Taylor, Gilson, Dolby, Coombs and Carrigan appeared to be tuning into the meeting from the same house with each councillor taking it in turns to be in the hot seat. This congregation of councillors in one house was criticised by a fellow councillor and by a member of the public.

After the appointment of councillor Carol Gilson as deputy mayor proceedings turned to the issue of re-establishing the council’s HR Committee.

Councillors Kolek and Pollington requested that the committee be made up of all members of the full council due to a number of recent high profile resignations. This proposal was quashed by their fellow councillors.

Councillors then voted on re-establishing the HR committee under a previous frame of reference, meaning that the HR committee would be made up of councillors holding committee chair positions.

When the vote came to councillor Gilson she was absent from the call, the deputy town clerk, Heloise Marlow, moved on and eventually came back to councillor Gilson when she reappeared on the conference call.

When asked where she had been she told councillors she had been ‘locked in the toilet’. The town clerk admonished councillor Gilson and asked that she please inform the meeting’s chairman before leaving a meeting in future.

Councillor Gilson then voted against re-establishing the HR committee under the previous frame of reference but quickly realised that she had in fact intended to vote in favour of the motion.

This led to much confusion. The town clerk remarked: “I honestly don’t know what to do now.”

Despite councillor Gilson’s botched vote the motion was still carried.

 

Why have attitudes to face masks changed?

In the past few days, both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson have been seen wearing masks in public for the first time.

By Helier Cheung BBC News www.bbc.co.uk /news/world-53394525

It’s a dramatic turnaround – Mr Trump previously mocked others for wearing masks, and suggested some might wear such personal protective equipment to show their disapproval of him, even after the US Centers for Disease Control recommended face coverings.

Meanwhile, the UK government was initially reluctant to advise the general public to wear face coverings, even as other countries in Europe did.

It introduced rules requiring people to wear face coverings on public transport in June, and now says people in England must wear face coverings in shops or face a fine.

Globally, many authorities – including the World Health Organization (WHO) – initially suggested that masks were not effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. However, they are now recommending face coverings in indoor spaces, and many governments have even made them mandatory.

What’s changed – and why?

The number of governments recommending face coverings has gone up significantly over the past six months.

As of mid-March, about 10 countries had policies recommending face coverings – now more than 130 countries and 20 US states do, says Masks4All, an activist group of researchers that advocates the use of homemade masks during the pandemic.

Some studies also suggest that people’s attitudes have changed.

“Countries with no previous history of wearing face masks and coverings amongst the general public rapidly adopted usage such as in Italy (83.4%), the United States (65.8%) and Spain (63.8%),” says a report by the Royal Society – one of the leading science bodies in the UK.

The changes appear to be partly due to a better understanding of how Covid-19 spreads.

Initially, the WHO said masks should only be worn by medical workers, or people who had symptoms like coughing and sneezing.

However, in recent months, there’s been increased evidence that many people with the virus do not have symptoms – but can still be contagious – and masks can stop them from passing it on to others. The WHO changed its guidance in June.

Meanwhile, there is more awareness that the risk of transmission is higher in poorly ventilated indoor spaces – and evidence to suggest that the virus could be spread by tiny particles suspended in the air.

This means that if everyone wears face coverings it will “protect against the most common mode of transmission – droplets – and to some extent maybe aerosol droplets,” says Kim Lavoie, chair of behavioural medicine at the University of Quebec at Montreal’s psychology department.

Graphic

Prof Lavoie adds that “there has been increased research” into face coverings, including observational studies which indicate “countries with high mask wearing seem to have lower infection rates”.

Furthermore, a number of scientists now say there is “some evidence” that masks can protect the wearer as well as those around them.

There is also growing acceptance that the pandemic could continue for a long time – and, if so, face coverings could be seen as something necessary to help people adapt, and reduce risks as businesses and schools re-open.

“Covid’s not going anywhere – we’ll probably have a vaccine in years, not months,” says Prof Lavoie, who has been leading the iCARE Study, an international survey into Covid-19 related behaviours. “So all these principles need to be integrated and adapted to the new normal life.”

Why do countries have such different attitudes?

Even as government policies have changed – there’s a big gap in how willing people are to wear masks.

About 83% of people in Italy, and 59% in the US, say they would always wear a face mask outside their home – but only 19% of people in the UK say the same, according to the Covid-19 Behaviour Tracker – a project run by the Institute of Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London with polling company YouGov.

“The US, UK and Canada have been relatively slow to accelerate mask wearing versus, for example, Spain, France and Italy,” says Sarah P Jones, a health behaviour researcher at Imperial College London, and one of the creators of the tracker.

Chart showing the percent of people in different countries who say they would wear face coverings in public

She says mask wearing can vary based on how vulnerable people feel about an illness, whether they believe the costs outweigh the benefits, and how readily available masks are.

In countries with steep rises in mask wearing, people may have experienced “rapid increases in perceptions of severity and vulnerability”, “rapid policy changes mandating use of face masks”, and a sense that “I see lots of other people doing it, so it must not be a big deal to wear a mask”.

Prof Lavoie agreed that places that “got hit quickly and hard”, like Italy, may have adopted mask wearing more readily.

Finally, people in countries that experienced the 2003 Sars pandemic – or other respiratory outbreaks – were readier to start wearing masks.

“In East Asia, there’s plenty of recent memory of respiratory pandemics, and a cultural awareness that masks are a good idea,” says Jeremy Howard, a research scientist at the University of San Francisco, and one of the Masks4All founders.

By contrast, “there’s just no recent history of respiratory pandemics in the West” and many Western and international institutions have “almost entirely ignored East Asian scientists”, he argues.

Many countries were particularly cautious over recommending face masks because of a lack of clinical trials proving their effectiveness, says the Royal Society’s report.

However, “there have been no clinical trials of coughing into your elbow, social distancing and quarantine, yet these measures are seen as effective and have been widely adopted,” it adds.

Why are some still reluctant to wear masks?

A majority of countries now recommend or require face coverings in some situations.

However, most people still appear much more willing to use hand sanitiser, social distance or wash their hands regularly, than wear face masks, according to data from both the Covid-19 Behaviour Tracker, and iCARES.

People feel that hand washing and social distancing are things they can easily control, says Prof Lavoie.

By contrast, “mask wearing is a little more complex – you have to find and purchase a mask, put it on and dispose of it a certain way, and they’re uncomfortable to wear.”

And the changing guidance from the WHO and many governments could have caused difficulties.

Many experts believe that governments were reluctant to recommend face coverings because they feared there would be a shortage of PPE equipment for medical workers – but by suggesting that they were ineffective at preventing transmissions, they now sound inconsistent.

“Mixed messaging, not being transparent about data, or how the government makes certain policy decisions, can undermine trust” and make it harder to convince people to wear face coverings now, Prof Lavoie says.

Mr Howard believes that many governments in the West were slow to act on masks until they were badly affected by the pandemic.

Nonetheless, he thinks that Boris Johnson and Donald Trump can have a positive impact now by wearing masks publicly.

“Role models are absolutely real,” he says, and ever since Mr Trump wore a mask, “a lot of folks who were previously anti-mask are now saying that was a patriotic thing for him to do.”

This is especially important now that the US is experiencing a new wave of infections, he adds.

NHS data reveals ‘huge variation’ in Covid-19 death rates across England

“The five trusts with the highest death rates are in the south-west (80%), north-west (68%), south-west (62%), east of England (60%) and London (54%).”

Analysis such as this may make uncomfortable reading, and it may not be perfect, but Owl has consistently argued for more analysis of emerging data. Readers also need to be reminded that the “south-west” referred to above is the NUTS definition extending eastwards to Gloucestershire and Wiltshire.

Niamh McIntyre www.theguardian.com 

A wide disparity in coronavirus mortality rates has emerged in English hospitals, with data seen by the Guardian showing that one hospital trust in south-west England had a death rate from the disease of 80% while in one London trust it was just 12.5%.

The figures, which NHS England has compiled but never published, show the age-standardised mortality rates that all of the country’s 135 acute hospital trusts have recorded during the pandemic. Doctors regard age as the single biggest predictor or risk factor for dying from Covid-19.

They cover the period from the start of the coronavirus crisis in March, through its peak in late March and April, up until 15 May, by which time 42,850 – or 85% – of the 50,219 deaths so far in all settings had occurred in England and Wales.

It is the first such data to emerge about how many people have lived or died in each trust after being treated there because they had been left critically ill by the disease. They are based on patients who were treated in an intensive care or high-dependency unit or on a ward.

Senior doctors said the dramatic gap in death rates of 67.5 percentage points between the trusts with the highest and lowest rates was notable and may mean that some hospitals needed to learn lessons from others.

“That is a huge variation, a huge range. I’m surprised at the degree of variation. A spread between 12.5% and 80% is quite stark,” said Dr Alison Pittard, the dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine. It represents the intensive care specialists who have played the lead role in treating what is now more than 100,000 people hospitalised in England with Covid-19.

Dr Nick Scriven, a former president of the Society for Acute Medicine (Sam), said: “The range does look larger than you would expect and should prompt further analysis and thought as to why this may appear as it does, which for the general population will be concerning.”

However, both Pittard and Scriven cautioned that the data did not give a full picture of differential death rates between hospitals because it did not take account of four other key factors for risk of death from Covid-19, namely gender, ethnicity, deprivation and underlying health problems. All four have been found to significantly increase a patient’s chances of dying.

NHS England has plotted each trust’s death rate, and the number of patients with Covid-19 each of them admitted, on a graph which it has shared with some senior doctors. Crucially, though, it has not identified the trusts on it. It has only disclosed which of the NHS’s seven regions the trust is in.

The five trusts with the highest death rates are in the south-west (80%), north-west (68%), south-west (62%), east of England (60%) and London (54%).

The five trusts with the lowest death rates are in: London (12.5%), Midlands (13%), London (14%), London (15%) and the south-east (15%).

Doctors pointed out that some trusts’ apparently high mortality rates could be skewed because they were based on them having treated fewer than 100 patients by 15 May, which makes their rates less reliable. But other trusts with notably high or low mortality had treated up to 2,350 patients over the same period, so their rates are more likely to be reliable.

Research published by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre shows that of 9,995 patients treated in intensive care units with known outcomes, 5,985 (59.9%) have been discharged and 4,010 (40.1%) have died, while 426 others are still receiving critical care.

Mortality among such patients in intensive care has improved from 50% early in the pandemic to 41% now, reflecting in part medical teams’ better understanding and treatment of Covid-19.

There is no suggestion that a high or low death rate indicates that patients have received a worse or better standard of care at any particular hospital. The makeup of the local population that a trust serves is the single biggest factor underlying a high or low death rate, Pittard said.

“We know that poorer communities and BAME communities have a higher risk of mortality, so if a trust is in an area of higher-risk individuals you woud expect that trust’s Covid-related mortality rate to be higher,” added Pittard.

NHS England’s data shows that 26 of the 135 trusts had a death rate between 12.5% and 25%. “That’s reassuring, absolutely. It’s positive that 26 trusts had that low mortality,” said Pittard.

However, at least half of patients treated at 11 trusts died. “Eighty percent does seem an extremely high number,” she added.

Dr Sue Crossland, the president of the Sam, said hospitals’ use of non-invasive ventilation, the early involvement of critical care teams and lying ventilated patients on their front – “proning” – have saved patients’ lives as doctors have better understood how to deal with Covid-19.

An NHS spokesperson said: “We do not recognise these figures, which appear to be experimental analysis of unverified data. But there is now a wide range of published data on the role that health inequalities, including pre-existing conditions and other health factors, have played when it comes to the impact of Covid, including from the ONS and Public Health England.

“The NHS is accelerating work to tackle health inequalities, and will shortly be providing local services with a range of actions they should build in to their plans for the coming months.”

Hot air & warm words from Neil Parish on those excluded from Covid support measures

 

Honiton MP: We are trying to help those that fall outside of government schemes

The MP for Honiton has said he is trying to help people who fall out of the Government’s support schemes but it is ultimately up to the chancellor.

Sam Cooper www.midweekherald.co.uk 

Speaking to the Herald, Neil Parish was asked about groups such as Excluded UK who represent individuals and businesses excluded from the Government’s Covid-19 financial support measures.

He said: “We have been supplying their problems into government but the policy comes via the chancellor so I will do my best to represent people’s views and where we can help, we do.

“Some people do fall outside of the schemes and that’s what we have been trying to sort out with a meeting with the treasury minister this week.”

Mr Parish was in Honiton visiting the street market and said he was happy to see businesses begin to reopen so that the life can begin to return to some kind of normal.

He said: “We now need to start opening things because while the government has quite rightly supported businesses by furloughing people, we are borrowing huge sums of money to do it and of course at some stage, this money will have to be paid back.

Mr Parish also encouraged tourists returning to the area to act responsibly. He said: “What I said in parliament last week was we want the tourists to come back but we want them to behave.

“By that I mean, just don’t take too many risks. Please don’t get too drunk so that you don’t know what you’re doing and just take it carefully.

“I think then most people will be happy to have tourists back but we don’t want too many people ignoring the rules. It is a very difficult one but I think on balance I welcome them back but I can see people being concerned.”

Mr Parish, who has been the local MP for a decade now also said the pandemic shows how important health is. He said: “I think this has been the hardest period [of my tenure as MP]. We’ve come through Brexit, one way or the other which every side of the argument you were on, and in a way it shows that our health is so important and something like Covid has laid us completely low but what it has also shown is that the community can come together. I think there are some positive sides and fortunately, Devon has not seen a massive amount of Covid but we just hope there won’t be any spikes.”

Coronavirus: Fines for failing to wear a face mask in shops in England

How long does it take for “Bumbling” Boris and his lacklustre Cabinet to take a simple decision?

Face masks compulsory in shops but not for ten days! All clear? – Owl

Oh -and are there prizes for the first to spot Dominic Cummings breaking the rules – probably doesn’t do pleb things like “shopping”?

Jon Craig news.sky.com 

Face coverings must be worn in shops and supermarkets in England from Friday 24 July, Boris Johnson has announced.

Enforcement will be carried out by police – not retail staff – and anyone failing to wear a face covering while shopping will be subject to a fine of up to £100, or £50 if paid within 14 days.

The rules to tackle coronavirus will be the same as those currently applicable on public transport in England, which means children under 11 and people with certain disabilities will be exempt.

The wearing of face coverings became compulsory in Scotland last week and around 120 countries – including Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece – now require coverings to be worn in public places.

Announcing the move, a Number 10 spokesperson said: “There is growing evidence that wearing a face covering in an enclosed space helps protect individuals and those around them from coronavirus.

“The prime minister has been clear that people should be wearing face coverings in shops and we will make this mandatory from July 24.”

The decision, due to be outlined by Health Secretary Matt Hancock in a Commons statement on Tuesday afternoon, follows four days of conflicting statements from ministers and demands from opposition MPs for clarity.

Responding to the announcement confirming mandatory face coverings, shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth said: “The government has been slow and muddled again over face coverings.

“Given the government’s own guidance issued on 11 May advised in favour of face masks, many will ask why yet again have ministers been slow in making a decision in this pandemic, and why it’ll take another 11 days before these new guidelines to come into force.”

London mayor Sadiq Khan went further and called the government’s “confused communications” on the subject a “disgrace”.

“We can’t afford to wait another day and the government should bring this policy in immediately – further delay risks lives,” he urged.

And the British Chambers of Commerce’s co-executive director Claire Walker said: “Businesses need clarity on the approach to the wearing of face coverings that is consistent and supported by public health evidence.

“Shops and other indoor businesses need to know what the new rules are as soon as possible.

“Updated guidance, including on enforcement, should be issued swiftly so firms can maintain their COVID-secure status and continue their operations successfully.”

In his most recent statement on face coverings, 12 hours before the official confirmation by Number 10, Mr Johnson said: “I think that as throughout this crisis people have shown amazing sensitivity towards other people and understanding of the needs to get the virus down by doing things cooperatively.

“I think wearing masks is one of them. In a confined space what you’re doing is you’re protecting other people from the transmission that you might be giving to other people.

“And they in turn they’re are protecting you. It’s a mutual thing. People do see the value of it.”

But just one day earlier, Michael Gove suggested masks in shops should not be mandatory, saying he believed shoppers should be encouraged to wear them, but he believed in “people’s good sense”.

And Home Secretary Priti Patel was pictured meeting her French counterpart indoors without wearing a mask over the weekend – despite being seen wearing one speaking to him outdoors on the same day – sparking claims ministers were sending mixed messages.

Priti Patel greeted French interior minister outside with a face mask on - but took it off when they met inside
Image: Priti Patel switched between wearing and not wearing a mask

Since 11 May, government guidance has advised the public to wear face coverings in enclosed public spaces, where they may come into contact with people they would not usually meet.

The use of face coverings became mandatory on public transport in England from 15 June.

Although Mr Hancock will confirm that the government guidance will be updated to make the wearing of face coverings in shops and supermarkets compulsory, he will say that guidance for other settings will be kept under review.

Regulations will be made under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. While shop employees should encourage compliance, the government said retailers and businesses will not be expected to enforce the policy.

Impact of HGVs on Sidford and Sidbury to be assessed by highways chiefs

Devon’s cabinet member for roads had asked officers to look into limitations on the A375 which runs through the two East Devon villages.

The impact of HGVs travelling through Sidford and Sidbury is to be assessed – with a weight restriction on lorries still possible.  

Devon’s cabinet member for roads had asked officers to look into limitations on the A375 which runs through the two East Devon villages.

Both have been blighted by big vehicles using their narrow roads, and it is feared a new business park off Two Bridges Road in Sidford will make the situation worse.

Plans for the scheme had been turned down over highway safety concerns but were approved on appeal.

A government inspector ruled that the benefits of the multi-million-pound scheme outweighed the effects and inconvenience of an increase in HGV traffic in the area.

Councillor Stuart Hughes, Devon County Council (DCC) cabinet member for highways, has previously championed the idea of a 7.5-tonne weight restriction on the route through Sidbury to the traffic lights junction at Sidford Cross.

A meeting of the East Devon Highways and Traffic Orders Committee (HATOC) heard an update on the proposal on Friday.

Cllr Hughes said: “There has been a lot of concern in Sidbury and Sidford about the increase of HGVs using the road to the business park following the planning approval.

“We will keep an eye of things to see how it pans out and we will be monitoring the impact on traffic carefully and consider any interventions that may be needed on the highway, including a weight limit.”

If the idea became a reality, HGVs which fell foul of the restriction would have to take a signed diversion route away from the villages.

This would likely to be via the A30 to the Daisymount roundabout.

However, Ottery Valley representative Cllr Claire Wright said this would have implications on traffic flows in the B3180 in her ward.

Cllr Hughes added: “Whenever you introduce a weight limit, it will just move the HGVs elsewhere.”

The impact of HGVs will be monitored before any interventions aimed at road safety, if required, are put in place.

Vehicles heavier than 7.5 tonnes would still be able to use the A375 for necessary access and to carry out deliveries.

Support for calls to cut 60mph speed limit on ‘danger’ Axminster road

Proposals that could see a ‘dangerous’ 60mph speed limit on the approach to Axminster reduced have been backed by East Devon highways chiefs.

Councillor Ian Hall has called for the move on the A358, to the north of the town, over safety fears.The road’s current 60mph limit runs from just past the entrance to Axminster Town Football Club’s ground in Tiger Way to the single-file Weycroft Bridge.Calls had been made to cut the restriction to 30mph.

The East Devon Highways and Traffic Orders Committee unanimously agreed on Friday that a Speed Compliance Action Review Forum (SCARF) should look into the measure.

Cllr Hall said: “This stretch of road is a 60mph zone and, as you go south into Axminster, it is still 60mph.

“Literally 20 yards away is the turning into Tiger Way where the football club is and there are real concerns about turning right and left.

“We have speeding motorists who jump the traffic lights on the bridge and it is a real issue at night.

“The stretch needs to be reduced in speed.”

Cllr Phil Twiss added: “I support this as the town has expanded north towards the Weycroft Bridge.

“While the 60mph was sensible ten years ago, it isn’t now, and it is very dangerous, so would support some sort of activity to reduce the speed of cars.”

Councillors unanimously agreed that Devon County Council officers should carry out a review through the SCARF process.

Data from this will help determine if the the current speed limit on the road is still appropriate.