LEP growth: correction or a new-found realism?

It now appears from further reading that the LEP’s very ambitious growth target has been moved from 18 years to 30.

Was it originally an error to give an earlier date or have the goalposts moved? Either way, it shows some common sense.

The new hoped for economic growth rate is now 2.35% pa. This is still quite ambitious, but MIGHT be achievable given continuous best economic conditions throughout the period, whereas 4% growth was clearly totally undeliverable.

Let’s hope this new-found move towards realism will similarly find its way through into our planning structure.

However, we must note that their Strategic Economic Plan predicts 3.06% growth over the next 12 years. That’s doubling the economy in 23 years! Surely, some mistake there?

Anyway, at least the new man seems to have immediately put the 4% nonsense firmly to bed.

However, there is still another caveat: Devon and Somerset are set to have expanding populations and the assumption is that the new arrivals will all be productive – ie not a majority of “unproductive” older incomers. This is expected also to continue over that 30 year period, so the growth per capita could actually be significantly smaller.