Interesting to compare the “officially confirmed” cases quoted in the article below with the estimates of active cases coming from Tim Spector’s symptom tracking app based on daily reporting (see table below). As you can see these fluctuate substantially week by week and suggest North Devon currently is a bit of a hot spot, where the article claims zero cases. However, it is also interesting to note that for the first time the symptom tracker is estimating zero cases in West Devon, Mid Devon, West Somerset and Sedgemoor. Does this suggest that many people could be exhibiting mild symptoms and not bothering to go to a test centre? Is it all statistical noise? Or is the symptom tracker wrong?
Estimated active case/million people under revised calculation methods (prevalence) Aged 20-69
Three areas in Devon have been found to be ‘coronavirus-free’ after the infection rate for the past seven days dropped to zero.
The regions are three of just 18 across the country that have been declared seen no new cases in the past week.
The figures are based on tests carried out in laboratories and in the wider community, reports The Mirror.
The rate is indicated as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.
Although the figure is 0.0 there is a chance that some people are infected with the new strain of coronavirus, however they haven’t been tested or aren’t displaying symptoms.
Data for the most recent three days (July 20-22) has been excluded as it is incomplete and likely to be revised.
The Mirror reports, these are the 18 local authorities with a rate of 0.0:
- North Devon
- West Devon
- Mid Suffolk
- Isle of Wight
- King’s Lynn and West Norfolk
- Great Yarmouth
- Mole Valley
- Test Valley
- Malvern Hills
- Staffordshire Moorlands
Yesterday (July 24), Devon Live reports that in the last seven days, there have been five cases confirmed in Plymouth, and three in Torbay, although two historical duplicates for Torbay have been removed.
Across the rest of Devon, 15 cases have been confirmed.
The South Hams saw one new case confirmed, but two historical duplicate cases have been removed.
North Devon, Torridge and West Devon saw no new cases confirmed.
93 new cases have been confirmed across the South West in the last seven-days, down from 102.
However, more cases for this week are likely to be added in the coming days.
Torridge has had the fewest number of cases of any of the districts, with West Devon 2nd, and the South Hams and North Devon also in the bottom five.