Second wave past its peak?

Owl has always regarded the Covid-19 symptom tracker app as being the best tool available to give early indications of change in the pandemic. Over 3 million individuals across the country are sampled on a daily basis and in a consistent way. The only caveat is that these individuals are self-selecting.

The current chart of the evolution of infections on a daily basis is very interesting. It shows that the infection rate began to reduce around 31 October. The infection then appears to have peaked around 4 or 5 November and is now falling. 

With an incubation period of up to two weeks (though there is now some suggestion that it might be only one) there will always be a lag of at least this time between imposing any lockdown control and observing any effect. For the government, there are then additional delays before the testing regime produces results, especially at week-ends.

The changes in the chart, therefore, relate to what has been happening as a result of the imposition of the tier system, before lockdown 2. We can reasonably assume that lockdown 2 will have an additional effect to that of the tier system. We will have to wait to see just how large an effect that is.

Meanwhile the omens are encouraging. 

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