Latest ONS figures show “R” number falling but still above 1. The King’s College Covid symptom tracker is more optimistic. This app certainly correctly “called” the start of the turnaround at the peak of the first wave before anyone else.
According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures based on swab tests up to four days ago, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is now declining across the UK.
Key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week:
- There are currently 35,963 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 01 November (excluding care homes)
- This compares to 42,049 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago
- The Midlands is the only region where the numbers are still going up, with the numbers now reaching the same levels are the North East and Yorkshire and overtaking the North West
- The number of new cases in the worst affected area, the North West, is now at the same levels they were at the beginning of October and have an R value of 0.8
- The number of daily new cases in the South East and South West have now stopped rising but have yet to start declining. These regions still have significantly less cases than the North West, North East and the Midlands (see full table of regional results and graph below)
- The UK R value is 0.9
- Regional R values are: England, 0.9. Wales, 0.9. Scotland, 0.9.
- Age: Again this week, infections nationally have stopped increasing in most age groups apart from modest increases in the over 60s group, which needs to be monitored closely (see graph below)
The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around a million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on the data from 13,460 recent swab tests done between 25 October to 08 November 2020.
If you’d like to receive the full daily report for the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app head to: https://covid.joinzoe.com/your-contribution
Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments:
“Having peaked at the end of October, cases coming down across most areas of the UK, is good news but the numbers are still high in most areas, and with a prevalence of over 500,000 infected people there is still a lot of virus in the population. Yesterday, we reported that the R value was below 1 across all UK nations for the first time and we need this trend to continue. A caution is that rates are still increasing in the Midlands for reasons that are unclear. We aren’t out of trouble yet, but with numbers falling and the news of a vaccine, it feels like the end is in sight.”