The Lizz Truss Dizzee Rascal mashup – Once heard, you wont get it out of your head!

Today (Saturday) is a historic day for beavers in England as they are now recognised as a native and protected species.

Remember that in 2014 it was only public outcry that stopped the culling of the colony of Beavers that had become established in the Otter. – Owl

Lisa Young www.southwestfarmer.co.uk

The new law, that came into force at midnight on October 1, is good news for this mammal which can do so much to restore wetlands across Britain.

Protected status will make it an offence to harm beavers or their habitat without a license.

Classification as a native species means that measures previously available to ‘control’ beavers as a non-native species will no longer apply.

The Wildlife Trusts pioneered the reintroduction of beavers. They are now calling for greater clarity and urgency from the government in relation to the plans for the widespread return of the animals.

The government published guidance in early September which outlines how beavers might be managed in the future.

However, both Beaver Trust and The Wildlife Trusts are concerned that it does not give sufficient support to landowners – and that the proposals lack ambition and detail.

The charities warn that, in their current form, the plans will not deliver the widespread reintroduction of a species which scientific studies have shown can improve water quality in rivers, stabilise water flows during times of drought and flood, store carbon and boost other wildlife.

Harry Barton, Devon Wildlife Trust’s chief executive, said: “A summer of record-breaking heat and drought has highlighted the urgency of making our landscapes more resilient to the unfolding climate emergency.

“Beavers have created green oases in our parched river valleys, because of their ability to store water through dam building and wetland creation. And we know they can reduce peak flows in times of flood and help improve water quality.

“The government’s recent announcements on protection for beavers and their management are good news, but they lack clarity and a sense of urgency. We need a clear plan and timetable so these amazing animals can become part of the wildlife of rivers throughout England.”

In 2015 Devon Wildlife Trust led a successful trial on the River Otter in Devon where England’s first wild population of beavers were reintroduced – 400 years after their extinction due to hunting and habitat loss.

This trial was a great success and the government subsequently agreed that the beavers on the River Otter could remain in the wild and spread naturally to other rivers.

Sandra King, chief executive of Beaver Trust, said: “It remains urgent and vital that the government delivers a clear, ambitious policy and licensing guidance to support beaver restoration in the wild.

“At the end of the day, if we are to welcome beavers back as a native animal our primary objective must be to target positive coexistence with beavers. A properly resourced, forward looking strategy will enable land managers and communities to do this.”

The charities have written to Ranil Jayawardena, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

The Environment Agency knew raw sewage was being illegally dumped into English rivers from wastewater treatment works a decade ago, a leaked report shows.

Rachel Salvidge www.theguardian.com 

However, the agency’s chair told MPs in May that the practice had only recently come to light.

The Environment Agency’s 2012 inspection report for the north-west region shows that a number of sewage works belonging to the water company United Utilities were dumping raw sewage into rivers while failing to treat the required amount of sewage stipulated in their permits.

Water companies are allowed to discharge untreated sewage into rivers, lakes and seas only at times of exceptional rainfall and only then if they are already treating a specified volume of sewage, known as “flow to full treatment” (FtFT).

The report shows that United Utilities was fined £200,000 for FtFT-related breaches at its Cleator sewage works in Cumbria, where flow data showed that only 65% of the required sewage was being treated while raw sewage was being dumped into the nearby river, and that “the storm overflow weir had been set deliberately to this lower level”.

It also shows Environment Agency officers suspected a further 35 United Utilities works to be dumping sewage while failing to treat the required amount of sewage. Officers carried out inspections at nine sites and found issues with FtFT at five works as a result of problems with flow meters and an Archimedes screw, along with “erratic readings” and “gaps in flow data”.

Although the report was written in 2012, the Environment Agency chair, Sir James Bevan, told the House of Commons environment, food and rural affairs committee in May this year, that “until recently, we have not had very good data about what is happening at sewage treatment works”.

Two investigations into the practice are under way. In November, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs announced that “several water companies had come forward” to say that “many of their sewage treatment works may not be compliant”, and that the Environment Agency and Ofwat had both launched sector-wide investigations into sewage dumping.

Defra’s announcement came shortly after campaigners from Windrush Against Sewage Pollution (Wasp) published its analysis of water company data that showed many works were dumping raw sewage in dry conditions and without treating enough sewage.

But Bevan told MPs on the committee that it was the Environment Agency’s insistence that water companies put monitors on their sewage treatment works that prompted water companies to come forward and tell the agency that the data would reveal non-compliance.

“And it was that understanding, which only came to us, frankly, within the last 12 months, that led to the investigation that the Environment Agency is running … that appears to show significant and widespread breaches of … permits,” Bevan told the MPs.

A whistleblower from the Environment Agency said the report “highlights how common” the practice is.

“This was known in 2012 when self-regulation was pushed and water quality monitoring, staffing and regulation was dramatically cut,” they added. “The agency had an opportunity to prevent over 10 years of illegal sewage dumping but chose not to take it, despite the funding being available. They knowingly permitted the illegal activity to continue.”

An Environment Agency spokesperson said the agency has “significantly driven up monitoring and transparency from water companies in recent years. In 2016, there were only 800 event duration monitors on storm overflows, and now there are more than 12,000. This data is allowing us to hold the industry to account on a scale never seen before”.

But event duration monitoring data has not been reliable. The government’s recently published plan to reduce sewage spills “relies on self-reporting of sewage spills by the water industry”, said Prof Peter Hammond, formerly visiting scientist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. But “close scrutiny of submissions to the Environment Agency suggests water companies cannot be trusted to provide complete and correct spill data”, he said.

“The plan will fail unless the Environment Agency takes back control of all monitoring and dramatically improves its regulation,” he added.

An Environment Agency spokesperson said it has recently requested detailed data from more than 2,200 wastewater treatment works “as part of the biggest investigation we have ever undertaken into potential permit breaches – and where there is evidence of non-compliance we will not hesitate to pursue the water companies concerned and take appropriate action”.

“We continue to take tens of thousands of water quality samples ourselves every year as part of our work to keep rivers clean, and we are also investing more this year to further advance our approach to sampling – and we have placed a wide range of new requirements on water companies to significantly increase their monitoring and reporting so that this data is available to all.”

The spokesperson declined to comment on the time gap between the date of the leaked report and Bevan’s comments.

A United Utilities spokesperson said: “These would be serious allegations and we will need to investigate further.”

Ash Smith, the founder of Wasp, said the water industry had “based its business success on ‘sweating the assets’ – not upgrading sewage works and dumping the sewage that it can’t treat into our rivers and seas, largely without interference from the Environment Agency.

“The industry has become reliant on this often illegal activity to make profits and bonuses and to do this it needed the agency to let most of it go unpunished and unchecked.”

Water companies told the Environment Agency that they dumped raw sewage into rivers and seas 372,544 times last year, for 2.6m hours. The real figure is believed to be much higher though, due to underreporting.

How the city could develop over 20 years

Under the “Old Guard” Tory regime how much of this would have been built on the green fields of East Devon under the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan (GESP)?

The residual government imposed “targets” are bad enough.

A thought – how many of the “Old Guard” East Devon Tories, who were always bullish “Build, build, build” supporters, are rowing in behind Truss and Kwarteng? – Owl

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

The first public consultation on a plan that will shape the future of Exeter for the next 20 years is now live.

Once finalised, the long-awaited Exeter Plan – the first new local plan for the city in 10 years – will be the blueprint that shapes the city’s future development.

An initial eight-week consultation on the first draft is now open until Monday 5 December. More will follow before the plan is refined and eventually adopted.

It addresses issues like climate change, homes and jobs, the future of high streets, transport and infrastructure and design quality. Around 30 policies are included, reflecting points raised from the first ‘issues’ consultation on the emerging plan in 2021.

The draft includes the city’s spatial strategy and highlights the benefits of steering the majority of development – around 85 per cent – towards brownfield sites to protect the city’s landscape setting and environmental quality.

It also proposes to consider “modest, greenfield development as a supplement to brownfield schemes” and to protect the “sensitive Exe Estuary and the sensitive hills to the north and north west of the city,” whilst avoiding areas of higher flood risk where possible.

Based on the government’s calculation that Exeter needs to provide 650 homes a year, a number of locations are identified. These include eight large strategic places, smaller council-owned sites, those promoted by third parties and a small number of allocated sites not yet built on. They are:

Large scale brownfield development sites: Mixed use

• Marsh Barton – 1,880 (homes)
• Water Lane – 1,180
• East Gate – 750
• Red Cow – 430
• Sandy Gate – 250
• North Gate – 200
• West Gate – 200
• South Gate – 170

Predominantly residential sites:

• St Bridget Nurseries, Old Rydon Lane – 334 (homes)
• Land to the north, south and west of the Met Office – 225
• Land south of the A379 – 184
• 12-31 Sidwell Street – 51
• Land east of Newcourt Road, Topsham – 43
• Devon & Exeter Squash Club, Prince of Wales Road – 40
• Land at Newcourt Road, Topsham – 38
• Land adjoining Silverlands, Chudleigh Road – 37
• Belle Isle Depot, Belle Isle Drive – 33
• Land west of Newcourt Road, Topsham – 31
• Chestnut Avenue – 26
• Former overflow car park, Tesco, Russell Way – 18
• Land behind 66 Chudleigh Road – 16
• Land east of Pinn Lane – 14
• Land at Hamlin Lane – 13
• Yeomans Gardens, Newcourt Road, Topsham – 13
• Fever & Boutique, 12 Mary Arches Street – 10
• 88 Honiton Road – 10
• Garages at Lower Wear Road – 9
• 99 Howell Road – 6

Introducing the plan to the council’s executive earlier this month, director of city development Ian Collinson said: “I’ve not seen another statutory local plan anywhere in the country that’s brought together the vision for the place in the way that we’ve done here.”

While he said it was a “coherent plan,” Mr Collinson added: “This is not a done deal and there will be lots of opportunities for people to shape it.”

Council leader Phil Bialyk (Labour, Exwick) introduces the document. He says: “Exeter is a fantastic city and I know that all of our residents feel the same way, so it is very important that everyone has a say on how it develops in the future.

“That’s why we want everyone to make sure their voices are heard. We’re reaching out to all of our communities and businesses with the draft plan. It will touch the lives of everyone living in the city as well as those working, studying in or visiting Exeter, so everyone needs to own it and have a say.”

The council has a legal duty to prepare planning policy for the city. The Exeter Plan will replace earlier development plans.

As well as being available on an interactive online platform called Commonplace, hard copies of the consultation can also be found in some public places, as well as at a series of public exhibitions.

A report will be brought back to the council’s executive exploring the comments made in the consultation and how they will shape the next stage of the plan.

Further consultation will then be held next year.

It’s not Putin nuking the economy but Truss and Kwarteng! – Owl

Kwasi Kwarteng has signalled that the poorest people in Britain will have to bear the brunt of his disastrous handling of the economy.

Torcuil Crichton www.dailyrecord.co.uk

In his first public statement since sending the pound plummeting the train wreck chancellor said it was too soon to say if benefits will rise with inflation next year, as promised.

In a move that could herald a new era of austerity the Treasury told Whitehall departments on Wednesday that “efficiency savings” would have to be made to fill the hole in the public finances.

Having announced sweeping tax cuts including for top rate payers in the first 20 days of his job, Kwarteng refused to say if the poorest would see their benefits rise with inflation, which is running at 10 per cent.

The channcellor said: “We are talking about helping people in the round. It’s premature of me to come to a decision about that”.

The Resolution Foundation estimated think tank estimated that £11 billion could be lost to claimants if benefits are uprated by earnings instead of by inflation in the next year amid warnings that would lead to destitution for many.

A couple with two chilidren on benefits woul lose £1061 and a single parent with one child on benefits would lose £607 a year the Resolution Fondation calculated.

In tv comment on Thurday Kwarteng sidestepped questions on tyhe mini budget disaster but insisted that his measures were needed to ensure growth.

He insisted that the Government is “sticking to the growth plan” and that it is “going to help people with energy bills”.

Chris Philp, Kwarteng’s deputy as chief secretary to the Treasury, confirmed this morning that cabinet ministers are being told that they must manage within existing budgets, even though inflation means they may be going down in real terms.

Concern was expressed by trade unions representing public sector workers in response to reports that departments are being asked to draw up plans for cuts as a result of the crisis sparked by the mini-budget.

Civil service departments were already delivering an average of five per cent efficiency savings agreed as part of a review last year.

Dave Penman, the general secretary of the FDA union, which represents senior civil servants said it now appeared the government was asking for those plans to be ripped up “in a state of panic”.

The NHS in Devon plans to create more than 100 new hospital beds across the county.

Stand up all you “value for money” Tories who voted for bed closures in the first place!

Most of the names will pop out of searches of the “Watch” archives.

We have made over 16,000 posts since “Old Owl” took to the wing in October 2013 – “New Owl”

BBC News www.bbc.co.uk

The measure is one part of a plan to reduce the waits of patients attending emergency departments.

It will be paid for using £24m of government money to help Devon’s hospitals discharge patients faster.  

There are also plans for virtual wards where clinical support can include remote monitoring using apps, wearables and medical devices.

Figures from Torbay, North Devon District, University Hospitals Plymouth and the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospitals show that hundreds of patients had to wait more than 12 hours to be seen last month.

Derriford Hospital in Plymouth will get £5m of the money as one of the six most challenged hospitals nationally.

It must be spent on radically reducing ambulance handover delays and includes plans to create more than 40 extra acute hospital beds, and the staff to cover them.

Torbay Hospital is to get 37 new beds, the RD&E gets 18 more, and North Devon District will get 11 additional beds, along with the additional staff needed.

All these plans were put before Devon County Council’s Health and Adult Care Scrutiny Committee on Wednesday.

Councillor Jess Bailey said she was waiting to see the effect of the changes before making a judgement.

“Additional funding is very much welcome but how is that actually going to translate into an improved service for our residents,” she said.

The plans also include 85 virtual hospital beds which will be introduced across the county, with plans for the first of them to go live in December.

They allow patients to remain at home if they wish to and communicate with their clinical team, who can remotely monitor observations like blood pressure, heart rate and respiratory rate.

It’s been a week since the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, delivered his “fiscal event”, heralding “a new approach for a new era” that left the Daily Mail cooing: “At last! A true Tory budget.”

Jamie Grierson www.theguardian.com

The impact of which has been devastating, with even the Tory-supporting Economist saying the government’s reckless incompetence may have already damaged it “beyond repair”. Here we look at the key figures that defined one of the worst probation periods in history.

£65bn

The Bank of England triggered an emergency £65bn bond-buying programme on Wednesday to stem the crisis triggered by Liz Truss and Kwarteng’s growth plan, which put entire pension funds at risk of insolvency.

4.3%

The yields on 10-year gilts – UK government bonds – surged after Kwarteng’s Friday announcement, rising from 3.5% to 4.3% before falling back to about 3.5% on Friday after the Bank of England’s intervention. Yields are effectively the cost of borrowing to an issuer, in this case the UK government. Rising bond yields suggest a lack of willingness among investors to own the debt, as buyers demand a lower price to buy them.

10.6%

The British Retail Consortium revealed food price inflation surged again to 10.6%, compared with an already staggering 9.3% last month.

232

The FTSE 100 has fallen by about 232 points since last Friday as jittery investors took flight.

33

Labour holds a 33-point lead over the Conservatives, according to a poll from YouGov. It is thought to be the largest poll lead held by a political party since the late 1990s. Labour is widely considered to have enjoyed a successful party conference, where it announced plans to form a publicly owned green energy company called Great British Energy.

1.03

The pound fell to a record low of 1.03 against the US dollar on Monday after Kwarteng doubled down on his £45bn package of tax cuts by pledging to go further. The pound-dollar was about 1.12 on the day of the mini-budget, hit its low on Monday, and has returned to close to 1.12 on Friday.

1,621

As of Thursday, spooked lenders had withdrawn 1,621 mortgage products from the market, according to Moneyfacts, amid uncertainty over the future trajectory of base rates and the lack of faith in the government’s plan.

Eight

The prime minister, Liz Truss, experienced a bruising round of eight BBC local radio interviews on Thursday morning. From Bristol to Stoke, and Lancashire to Kent, Truss was up against the ropes for much of the excruciating hour of exchanges, in which she frequently drifted off into uncomfortable silences, resorted to challenging “the premise of the question” and in many cases providing answers to questions that had not been asked.

[Now she is up for the Laura Kuenssberg interview spot on Sunday morning with Rachel Reeves for comparison]

The Autumn pantomime now opening in Birmingham

Image from westcountryvoices.co.uk /

In East Devon, a win is predicted for an Independent, based on the strong showing at the last General Election of Independent Claire Wright, but she has announced she is stepping back from politics.

Must be tempting though – Owl

Edward Oldfield www.devonlive.com 

The Tories would lose most of their Devon seats and be almost wiped out in the Westcountry if there was a General Election now. The latest survey on voting intentions shows Labour has the biggest lead over the Conservatives since the 1990s as electors respond to the Government’s handling of the economy and cost-of-living crisis.

The poll for YouGov and The Times gave Labour a 54% share of the vote, 33 points ahead of the Tories who dropped 7 points to 21%. The survey also suggests Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are taking votes from the Liberal Democrats, which would have a significant impact on the results in Devon where in many seats the Lib-Dems have been the main opposition.

Translating the poll results into the effect on Parliament shows Labour would have a majority of 346, leaving the Conservatives with just 61 MPs. Election Maps UK says it would mean the Conservatives losing every one of its six seats in Cornwall to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

In Devon, the Conservatives would lose six seats mostly to Labour but hang on in North Devon, Totnes and Torbay. In East Devon, a win is predicted for an Independent, based on the strong showing at the last General Election of Independent Claire Wright, but she has announced she is stepping back from politics . Labour would see its two seats increase to eight, or nine if it took East Devon where they were in third place ahead of the Liberal Democrats in 2019.

The survey suggests that Tiverton and Honiton would go to Labour after the by-election win by Liberal Democrat Richard Foord over the Conservatives in June, following the resignation of Neil Parish. Labour were previously the runner-up to the Tories in 2019, but the Liberal Democrats swept to victory in what was seen as a protest vote against Boris Johnson and the Whitehall parties scandal.

The next General Election has to take place before the end of the current five-year term of the Parliament on December 17, 2024, so the Conservatives have two years to recover support. But the vote can be called earlier by the prime minister if MPs lose confidence in the Government. Meanwhile there are local council elections scheduled in May next year, which will be seen as a test of Liz Truss’s performance.

Labour’s Parliamentary candidate in Exeter, Steve Race, said people now viewed Labour as a “credible alternative government”. He said: “It’s clear that Liz Truss and her Tory government have lost control of the economy. The ‘mini-budget’ turned out to be a big and risky gamble with the economy that has not paid off, and threatens to hit households across Exeter and the South West. People are worried about their energy bills, they’re now worried about their pensions, and they’re worried about their future mortgage payments.”

Graphic showing voting intentions reported on September 28 and 29 (Image: YouGov)

YouGov said its poll carried out on Wednesday and Thursday this week showed Conservative support had dropped by 7 points, the Liberal Democrats were down 2 to a 7% share of the vote intention, Greens were down 1 to 6% and Reform UK were up 1 to 4%.

Commentators are blaming the slump in support for the Government on last week’s mini-budget, which saw £45billion of tax cuts for the richest funded by borrowing. That is said to have upset the international financial markets and led to a steep fall in the value of the pound, causing the Bank of England to step in to support the currency and increasing upward pressure on interest rates.

YouGov’s associate editor Patrick English commented: “The direct transfer of voters away from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats is the key reason for Labour’s record lead today. The context is of course very important – we are in the middle of a very negative news cycle for the government as they deal with the economic fallout from Friday’s deeply unpopular mini-budget, at the same time as Labour are enjoying increased coverage and exposure – including of popular policies such as the establishment of a public energy company – from their conference.

“Add to this long-term public frustration with the government’s handling of the cost of living and decreasing faith in the Conservative Party to handle the economy, and it all makes for a toxic public opinion environment for the government.”

Graphic showing voter intentions (Image: ElectionMapsUK/Flourish)

Asked about the Conservatives’ poor polling in the wake of the mini-budget, Treasury minister Andrew Griffith told Times Radio on Thursday: “I would welcome the increased scrutiny as a result of that poll, to be honest. We have had obviously a busy week laying out the details of our growth plan, making sure our energy package is in place from this Saturday when bills would otherwise have kicked in.

“But, also, we heard from Labour this week more powers for striking workers, so those who aren’t going to get their post delivered tomorrow, who aren’t going to be able to take their train, can reflect on that. We also heard how they want to increase the energy insecurity of this country – remember energy is the big headwind we are all dealing with – as a result of their desire to have a nationalised energy company and also turn off every last drop of North Sea gas by 2030. Hopefully we will see more scrutiny of that as well.”

The government is creating a “wild west economy” that is failing to address Devon’s problems, the county council’s opposition leader has claimed.

exmouth.nub.news 

Lib Dem councillor Julian Brazil (Kingsbridge) made the remarks at a cabinet meeting on Monday [26 September] after hearing that the Conservative-run council’s overspend could be as much as £27 million this financial year, despite it already finding millions of pounds of savings and extra income.

It followed a mini-budget by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng last week that featured the biggest tax cuts by a government for 50 years.

The cost-of-living crisis and increasing demand for help for vulnerable children and adults has led to spiralling costs in Devon, with the council recently warning it had “never before faced a combination of demand growth and price shock pressures of this scale.”

And while the underlying budget forecast has worsened since then, a ‘financial sustainability programme’ at county hall – finding services that can be modernised, postponed or cut – has helped to reduce the projected black hole by almost £20 million.

However, it still predicts an overspend this year of £17 million, which could increase to around £27 million because of inflation.

Reacting to the update from cabinet member for finance Phil Twiss (Conservative, Feniton), Cllr Brazil said: “I suppose the underlying problem that we have in Devon is a lack of funding from central government. And what we had on Friday was a particularly large fiscal event or mini budget or whatever they wanted to call it, but unfortunately failing to address any of the problems that we suffer here in Devon.”

He continued: “It’s almost as if they’re living in a sort of parallel universe that while our services are struggling to provide for the most vulnerable in our communities, there seems to be this idea that somehow you can magic it all away by giving tax cuts.

While Cllr Brazil said he had “some sympathy” for Cllr Twiss, he added: “I wonder at what point he’s going to say, ‘enough’s enough’ and break away from a government that seems hell bent on creating some kind of wild west economy without actually addressing all the incredibly pressing needs that we have here in Devon and particularly supporting the most vulnerable who need our help more than ever.”

Labour group leader, Councillor Carol Whitton (St David’s and Haven Banks), also expressed concern about the council’s current predicament and urged its leadership to lobby for more financial help.

“The situation is desperate and there is no prospect that it’s getting any better. At the end of the day, the books will balance this year because, if necessary, money will be pulled out of reserves. So, we won’t go bankrupt but what will happen next year [and] what will happen the year after that?

“Unless there is a rebooting and a rethink at Westminster about how local services are provided, how frontline services are provided, this situation is not going to change and I find that very depressing going forward.

“As Cllr Brazil says, I hope that you as cabinet members and as leader make it as plain as you possibly can to the powers that be that local government is really in trouble here. And it’s not just Devon, we know this, it’s a national situation.

In response, Cllr Twiss said they could be “absolutely sure” that members of the cabinet attending this weekend’s Conservative party conference in Birmingham will be “lobbying anybody and everybody we can to make the case for local government.”

“[Cllr Whitton]’s hit it on the head, local government is in trouble and unless it’s funded properly, we’re going to be in a lot more trouble. But I don’t take the doom and gloom approach … we will balance the books and we’ll do our very best.”

The updated total does not include a separate, projected £34.5 million overspend this year on caring for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). This is because the government has told councils to put SEND overspends into separate ring-fenced accounts for three years while it develops a new funding plan.

The arrangement ends in April and Devon, and along with a number of other authorities, Devon is still waiting to hear from the government about what will happen with the overspends. The county’s current ring-fenced overspend on SEND – effectively debt – is projected to rise to £121 million by next year.

Cllr Twiss hopes additional funding will be provided by the Department for Education soon but admitted the authority will “have to change the way we work.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “We have made an additional £3.7 billion available to councils this year in recognition of their vital role. This includes an additional £40 million for Devon County Council to ensure they are able to deliver key services.”

Devon’s ruling cabinet noted the budget update, which concluded: “The good work underway must continue at pace and scale to ensure the authority is in the strongest position possible to continue to provide the best services we can within the resources available.”

The British Pound has fallen so much that instead of buying a Rolex in the US, it’s actually cheaper to fly first-class from New York to London, buy the watch, stay in a 5-star hotel and fly back.

Sayan Chakravarty luxurylaunches.com 

What if I told you that you can buy a Rolex at a 30% discount? It immediately grabbed your attention, right? But it’s true; let me explain how. The British pound plummeted to a record low against the US dollar at the beginning of this week, which has created a unique opportunity for those looking to buy a Rolex or any other high-end luxury watch for that matter. Thanks to the currency slump, these watches are available at discounts of as much as 19 percent when compared to their corresponding prices in the US. To bring price parity, brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Audemars Piguet have already hiked prices twice already this year in the UK. In fact, most brands increased prices by 5-7% on September 1. However, the rate at which GBP has crashed recently has made the attempts to hike prices pretty much useless.

But you must be wondering, that still doesn’t account for the 30% discount I told you about at the beginning. You see, the UK government is planning to bring back VAT-free shopping for international tourists to help to boost sales. If the promised policy changes go through, the total discounts available on luxury watches will be boosted to as much as 32 percent, according to a report by WatchPro. According to current prices, a steel Rolex GMT-Master II available for US$11,289 in the US can be purchased for US$9,293 in the UK with US dollars, while American visitors can save over $2,800 if they choose to buy a 41mm Rolex DateJust in Oystersteel.

We did a bit of digging around for information and a little math to discover something really interesting. For those in the US, it is currently cheaper to travel to the UK and buy a gold Rolex Cosmograph Daytona there even if they choose to fly first class. The highly-coveted Rolex model is around $10,000 cheaper in the UK, while the first-class ticket from New York to London on an American Airlines flight is currently hovering close to $8000. That still leaves you with $2000 in change. Add $1,000 for spending the night at the Bulgari London and you will still be richer by $1,000. The only caveat is it’s almost impossible to get your hands on the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona or any highly sought-after Rolex watch thanks to insane demand and not enough supply. Yet, we still expect a lot of people to take advantage of this unique situation.

Conservative MPs are dreading their annual conference, which kicks off this weekend amid a raging economic crisis, splits on a list of big-ticket issues and an opposition surging to record poll numbers. The mammoth Liz Truss broadcast round that was designed to calm the markets, her backbenchers and the public appeared to have the opposite effect, with even some of her biggest champions plunging their heads into their hands and her detractors plotting to vote down her economic plans and topple her nascent administration. Those planning to attend the jamboree in Birmingham in 72 hours might want to pack travel sickness pills. It’s going to be turbulent. 

From Politico Playbook

Liz Truss’s government is on course to make public spending cuts of almost £50bn a year after the “unenforced error” of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget, according to top economists.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk

Experts at the Resolution Foundation warned that Britain’s public sector was heading for a return to the austerity period imposed by the David Cameron-led Tory government.

If Ms Truss refuses to U-turn on her borrowing-fuelled splurge on tax cuts, the level of spending cuts will have to be “broadly the same or bigger” than then-chancellor George Osborne set out in 2010 after the banking crash, the think tank said.

The government is likely to need to announce fiscal tightening of between £37 and £47bn a year in order to meet a commitment to get debt falling by 2026-27, the Resolution Foundation warned.

Ms Truss confirmed on Thursday that she and her ministers are now looking for cuts across government – declaring that there are “plenty of areas” where taxpayers’ money could be saved.

“There are always ways that we can organise things more efficiently. What I want to make sure is that taxpayer money is focused on frontline services,” the prime minister told broadcasters.

Whitehall sources told The Independent that the Treasury had written to all departments asking them to find savings. Asked about the efficiency drive, a spokesperson said: “The British taxpayer expects government to run as efficiently and effectively as possible.”

The prospect of austerity has sparked anger among unions and campaigners, who warned the cuts to pay and services would be “an act of national vandalism and a huge betrayal of the British people”.

A group of 18 trade unions wrote to the PM demanding a “cast iron assurance” she would honour a Tory leadership campaign pledge that there would be no cuts to public services, already struggling with the impact of inflation.

“Frontline services are already at breaking point. They must not be sacrificed to make the top 1 per cent even richer,” said the letter signed by the TUC’s Frances O’Grady, Unite’s Sharon Graham and others. “We won’t allow the social fabric of this country to be destroyed.”

Mr Kwarteng has promised a “medium-term” fiscal plan on 23 November to spell out how he will balance the nation’s finances and a £45bn-a-year tax giveaway disproportionately benefiting the rich.

The Resolution Foundation said the market turmoil which has seen traders dumping government bonds had increased the UK’s debt interest costs by around £12.5bn a year by 2026-27.

Torsten Bell, the think tank’s chief executive, said the huge package of tax cuts “without any explanation of how they would be paid for” was the “biggest unforced economic policy error of my lifetime”.

Warning of “unpleasant” cuts ahead, the top economist added: “The intention may have been to emulate Margaret Thatcher – but the reality may involve looking a lot like George Osborne in the years ahead.”

The Resolution Foundation suggested that the “painful” policy choices that the Treasury would now have to consider include cutting public investment projects and abandoning the pledge to increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030.

The think tank said the government could consider uprating benefits and pensions by earnings instead of inflation – a 4 per cent real-terms cut. This would save £20bn over two years, but would cost a typical low-income family with two children over £1,000 a year.

NHS Providers have warned that cuts to the health service would represent a “huge setback” to a service already stretched by a decade of austerity. “NHS budgets are already severely stretched,” Miriam Deakin of the trusts’ membership body told The Independent.

Unison general secretary Christina McAnea said the prospect of NHS budget cuts was “terrifying” and would exacerbate the existing “exodus” of staff leaving after the Covid crisis.

School leaders also reacted with alarm to the prospect of a return to austerity. Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, told The Independent: “An economic policy of further cuts to public services at this point would be disastrous.”

Treasury minister Chris Philp said government departments have been asked to stick to existing spending limits during the current three-year settlement – as well as being asked to make efficiency savings.

However, Mr Philp argued on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “iron discipline” on public spending would not necessarily lead to austerity.

“If we can get economic growth going, which is our intention, it will lead to wages going up and lead to new and better jobs being created and will ultimately pay the taxes that fund public services like health, the NHS and so on,” he said.

Mr Philp suggested the government may not hike benefits in line with inflation in April 2023 as promised, while Mr Kwarteng said it was “premature for me to come to a decision on that”.

Charities warned that U-turning on a commitment to increase benefits in line with inflation would lead to disabled people “starving and freezing in their own homes”.

The Child Poverty Action Group said “unless benefits are uprated to match inflation, [children] will also become the casualties of a collapsing economy”.

Prime minister Liz Truss and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will meet the head of Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog today following a market meltdown triggered by the mini-budget.

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar www.independent.co.uk

In an unusual move, Ms Truss and chancellor Kwarteng will meet the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Richard Hughes to discuss the economic and fiscal developments.

Mr Kwarteng unveiled a string of tax cuts last week in a fiscal statement that was not accompanied by OBR forecasts. The forecaster said it had offered to prepare a draft for the new chancellor in time for the mini-budget but it was not taken up.

Now, a group of lawmakers have reportedly called for the forecast to be released immediately.

The chancellor has insisted that he is “sticking with” his mini-budget, despite it spooking markets and forcing an emergency Bank of England intervention.

Meanwhile, Tory MP Sir Charles Walker said the Conservative Party faces an existential threat after Labour surged to a 33-point lead in one poll.

He suggested the Conservatives would “cease to exist as a political party” if the 33-point lead is repeated at a general election.

Conservatives currently tanking

www.politics.co.uk (Extracts)

The Result Of A General Election Today

In the first three weeks of the Liz Truss premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives has grown considerably and is now trending at 11.2%.  This 11.2% average lead relates to a period before Chancellor Kwarsi Kwarteng’s ‘mini budget’ on September 23 had a chance to feed into the opinion poll numbers.

Polling averages extrapolated in the three weeks running up to 27 September place Labour on 42.7%, the Conservatives on 31.5%, and the Liberal Democrats on 11.2%.

If a General Election was held today, and the public vote reflected that average polling position, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons:

The result of a general election is projected as a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. but some 8 seats short of an outright majority. 

Latest Polls

YouGov (25 September) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 28%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%.

Redfield and Winton (25 September) which placed Labour on 44%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 11%.

Ipsos (22 September) which placed Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 30%, and the Liberal Democrts on 13%.

Public Opinion since the 2019 General Election

In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid  pandemic in March and April 2020.

In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invastion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UK’s political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls.

However amidst mounting pressure on Boris Johnson’s position in late June, and the drawn out nature of his resignation in early July, the Labour party  once extended their lead over the Conservatives in the polls.  This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022.

Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss.  In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%.

Pollsters showed that Liberal Democrat voting intention during most of this Parliament was constant at around the 9% mark with only temporary uplifts above this point.  In the autum of 2022, the party was polling around the 11%.

There are reports that Kwasi Kwarteng is writing to various MP WhatsApp groups for support.

Owl imagines the “Dear Colleague” message:

Dear Colleague,

I understand your concerns that you may lose your seats at the next election, but we have to make tough choices if I am to stay Chancellor and Liz as PM.

Our priority is to grow the economy so that everyone can get a slice of a bigger cake while those at the top enjoy the cream.

The only way to do this is by cutting taxes at the top, and that is what we must deliver. There is no alternative.

If necessary, we must fund this by reviewing government expenditure, even the inflation uplift on benefits. Nothing is off the table. 

We will show markets that our plan is sound. At the moment it is all based on ideology and my team of teenage Spads need to flesh out the details. When we have a plan, of course we will ask the OBR to demonstrate that it is sound, credible and will work to drive growth. Their existence as an independent organisation will depend on it.

We need your support to do this as the only people who win if we divide will be ordinary people, rather than the rich who are the only ones driving the economy and funding our party.

I am always available for a meeting and I hope we can engage dynamically in the coming weeks.

Though both occurred under Tory Government. [1992 is when we were forced out of the ERM]

Since the “fiscal event”, without any figures to back its credibility, was announced last week we have had a currency crash, veiled criticism from the IMF to row back, followed by bond rate surges yesterday that threatened to bankrupt our pensions funds. The Bank’s of England’s emergency action, effectively printing money, will now add to inflation.

Now pick up form this extract from www.theguardian.com

“It is at this point, one hopes, that reality dawns on Tory MPs that the current crisis has very little to do with a strong dollar or global forces, or any of the other excuses that have been trotted out in recent days. The Bank had to intervene to save the government from the consequences of its own actions.

While forced selling by pension funds intensified the action, the deeper turmoil comes by markets’ brutal verdict on Liz Truss and Kwarteng’s £45bn package of tax cuts. It was investors – not the International Monetary Fund, say – who first judged that the chancellor’s plan is no way to manage the public finances when you are borrowing potentially huge sums to underwrite a blank-cheque guarantee on household energy bills for two years.

The supposed prize – an improvement to 2.5% in the UK’s growth rate – is years away, if it arrives at all. Meanwhile, inflation is 9.9% and the current account deficit, at 8%, is wide. Investors may tolerate a few economic unorthodoxies, but they’ll demand stiff terms to fund an economic gamble that simply looks reckless. That is the source of the surge in gilt yields. It flows from Downing Street.

So, too, does the incidental damage to the Bank’s own credibility, Only last week it was planning to sell gilts into the market – not buy them – under its quantitative tightening programme (or QT, the reversal of the easing programme of the last decade). Now QT has been delayed until the end of next month, which feels like a hope rather than an expectation. The Bank had no real choice in the matter, but confusion is unmistakable.

Meanwhile, dysfunction continues in the mortgage market as lenders yank fixed-interest offers. That part of the tale should also sound alarm bells on the backbenches. Panic over mortgage costs is now water-cooler and pub talk.

The way out of the mess must involve U-turns. Even after the Bank’s temporary yield-suppression operation, Kwarteng’s programme looks unaffordable. The size of the borrowing coming down the track is too large, and the risks to households’ and businesses’ borrowing costs are too great. Kwarteng pitched his plans as a way to avoid a deep recession, but the market’s reaction to his fiscal pyrotechnics has created the risk of a deeper one.

A couple of contenders for U-turns can be read from the IMF’s withering assessment. A minor tweak would reinstate the 45p income tax rate for high-earners as a signal of prudence. A bigger move would trim the energy support programme to six months and introduce a targeted scheme thereafter.

But if Kwarteng is determined to charge down his original track (he seems to be), he should hammer down his new fiscal rules and announce them soon. 23 November, the intended date, is too far away. The same goes for the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment of the state of the public finances. Let the budgetary watchdog bark.

A more dramatic U-turn lies in the hands of those same Tory MPs who must digest two hard facts. In the space of four trading days, a Tory “fiscal event” has led to a major intervention by the central bank to avert a “material risk” to financial stability and a run on pension funds. And none of this would have happened if Rishi Sunak had won the leadership contest. Kwarteng, surely, cannot survive another day like Wednesday.”

Right now it appears that Truss and Kwarteng are intent on “doubling down” by finding cuts in government spending including from benefits payments and state pension inflation upgrades.

In other words benefit claimants and pensioners are going to be expected tp pay for the reduction of top rate tax from 45% to 40%.

This is not what the IMF expects. There will be more fireworks.

From a correspondent:

Hello Mr Jupp, any thoughts? ….. Of course, you did support Sunak … so what will you do next?

A quick impression of last night’s extraordinary consultative meeting.

Back in April the council voted unanimously, with one abstention, to conduct an investigation into how Humphreys continued in his council roles, with access to children, and then became an honorary Alderman after his arrest. 

The Chief Executive, Mark Williams, was asked to advise how this could be done. So it may surprise readers to know that five months later the Council met again last night to vote on whether or not to conduct an investigation.

In the interim, Mark Williams had decided to advise the council against taking any such action because, in his opinion, all that was to be known was known and such an exercise would be a waste of taxpayers money. Just how Mark Williams can make such a categorical statement hasn’t been revealed. He kept repeating the mantra that the council must be “Fact specific”.

This “foot dragging” led Cllr Jess Bailey to take the unusual step of raising a ”requisition order” to appoint, after research, a specific independent investigation organisation, Verita, to conduct one (referred to as Option A). For a requisition order to be put to the vote it has to be supported by nine councillors. 

Her move prompted Mark Williams to come up with an alternative (Option B) which would involve commissioning a legal practice to undertake the investigation. However, his first recommendation to the council was to drop the notion of conducting an investigation, but if the council rejected this advice then it should consider his Option B as an alternative to Option A.

After debate, the council voted to conduct an independent investigation by 27 votes to 9 with 5 abstensions. There were quite a few apologies.

The council then turned its attention to the two options put before it.

During this, in what seemed a surprising move to Owl, the Chief Executive started to sow confusion by spewing out other options such as conducting an external audit or even getting asking the Secretary of State to conduct a review through a process whereby the council reported itself for misconduct!

During discussion yet more options emerged such as using Ofsted, the option recently adopted by Devon County Council. 

When put to the vote Council members voted:

22 votes to choose Option A, zero votes for Option B with 18 abstentions.

So the option concocted by the Chief Executive was completely rejected. 

Owl was left with the overwhelming impression that the council has been badly let down by Mark Williams, Chief Executive.

In April he was asked to advise how an independent investigation could be conducted. This was the moment when he could have come up with the idea, that Devon County Council came up with a couple of weeks ago, of using Ofsted or indeed any of the other options he suddenly threw into the pot last night. But he didn’t, he left a void and failed to give any constructive advice other than an investigation is unnecessary and a waste of money.

We know the debate was watched by one of the victims. He very courageously gave an introductory speech as a member of the public. Special arrangements had been made so that he could do this anonymously. He spoke about how his life had been wrecked, how important it was for his rehabilitation to be heard and how an investigation would help him.

As Cllr Eleanor Rylance put it: Humphreys weaponised his role as a councillor, later an Alderman, to elevate his status in society to put him into a position of being beyond reproach. He used it to intimidate his victims.

Some councillors were close to tears whilst making their contributions during debate. But, watching the debate, the victim may have been left with the impression that a significant “establishment” barrier lurks in the background.

Not sure it ever started – Owl

Bank of England forced to issue emergency statement after UK leader’s mini-budget triggers market turmoil.

Esther Webber, Emilio Casalicchio www.politico.eu 

LIVERPOOL, England — As an inexperienced leader taking charge of a country in crisis, Liz Truss knew she needed to hit the ground running this month.

But three weeks into her fledgling premiership, the new U.K. prime minister finds herself scrambling to stay ahead of events as last Friday’s tax-cutting mini-budget spooked financial markets, sending Britain’s borrowing costs soaring and the pound tumbling to an all-time low.

“If you start going off on a dangerous tangent,” one former Tory Cabinet minister mused, “the markets will intervene.”

And intervene they did. The pound fell to a record low against the dollar Monday morning as markets reacted to the biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years, a plan that raised expectations borrowing will surge.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was forced to issue an emergency statement late Monday, promising a fresh package of supply-side reforms over the coming weeks and a fully costed “fiscal plan” on November 23 to get U.K. debt levels falling over the medium term.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey offered no immediate rates rise, but warned the bank’s monetary committee “will not hesitate to change interest rates as necessary” to push down double-digit inflation. The pound rallied somewhat later in the day, but nowhere near enough to recover recent losses.

The economic turmoil set nerves jangling on the Conservative backbenches, with MPs fearing their party’s long-held reputation for sound economic management is now at serious risk. Traditionally the Tories have found political success in painting their Labour opponents as high-spending and economically illiterate.

“[I’m] very worried,” said one of the dozens of Tory MPs who backed Truss’ opponent, Rishi Sunak, in the summer-long leadership contest. “It’s the effect on interest rates that scares the bejeezus out of me. If you think things are bad now, just wait till we see home repossessions.”

Such trepidation about Truss’ approach is commonplace on the Tory backbenches. The new PM entered Downing Street three weeks ago in a precarious political position, having failed to secure support from the majority of her own MPs in the parliamentary stage of the leadership race.

Her friends and critics alike suggested she may only have two or three weeks to prove to the party she has what it takes to lead the country through a time of economic crisis. 

But while a multibillion-pound energy bailout announced on Truss’ third day in office went down reasonably well, she did not get the chance to sell it to the country as her planned agenda was overtaken by the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Her first big appearance on the world stage then fell somewhat flat after she was offered a graveyard 9 p.m. slot for her speech at the U.N. General Assembly. And her domestic position appears to have weakened further in the wake of last week’s much-hyped mini-budget. 

“It’s worse than Black Wednesday,” said another Sunak-backing Conservative MP., referring to the infamous Sterling crisis of September 1992. “This is self-inflicted and without a mandate, whereas at least [Black Wednesday] was perceived as a bid to manage a crisis.”

Another MP said: “This is dangerous territory … What the PM hasn’t realized is that any gains made by the tax cuts will be more than outweighed by increased mortgage payments.”

Nor is disquiet in the Tory ranks confined to Truss’ sworn opponents.

One former minister who backed her in the leadership race said the decision not to publish official economic forecasts alongside last week’s tax cuts was “a bit of an own goal.”

“The Chancellor should have set out the fiscal position last week,” the MP said. “Markets hate uncertainty.”

Part of the markets’ reaction has been sparked by the absence of any clues from the government about where they might make spending cuts to reduce levels of borrowing.

“You can’t just borrow your way to a low-tax economy,” former Tory Chancellor George Osborne told Channel 4 News. “Fundamentally, the schizophrenia has to be resolved — you can’t have small-state taxes and big-state spending.”

Some fear, in addition, that Truss’ top team lacks the savvy to deal with multiple economic crises. 

“They look lightweight to me,” said a former Downing Street aide of the new-look No. 10 operation. “There’s not a lot of experience in there.”  

The former adviser questioned new chief of staff Mark Fulbrook’s organizational skills and highlighted the relative youthfulness of many of his Downing Street colleagues.

Others heaped fresh criticism on Kwarteng’s decision to dismiss Tom Scholar, the long-serving top official at the Treasury, as one of his first acts in office. 

“To fire your only official with serious experience of crisis management and then precipitate a crisis a fortnight later brings postmodernism to a new level,” tweeted former Treasury Permanent Secretary Nick Macpherson.

Typically a new prime minister can at least expect a significant, if temporary, poll bounce on entering office — but no such phenomenon appears on the cards for Truss, with the Labour Party maintaining a 12-point lead.

Yet Truss’ supporters are urging their colleagues to be patient, arguing that party members picked someone offering a radical change for a reason.

One Truss-backing minister said: “The dollar is strong, and we have just seen a significant change in economic policy. It is inevitable that would have an impact on trading. Things will settle when the markets get used to it.”

And another Sunak-supporting MP insisted that excitable Westminster chatter of a further leadership challenge so soon after the ouster or Boris Johnson was overblown.

“There’s a huge amount of ill feeling,” the Tory MP said. “People are angry. But I think self-preservation is a much more motivating factor.

“We haven’t got any choice. We have got to get behind this. Governments who get things wrong tend to lose elections but governments that are split definitely lose elections.”