IMF says UK fiscal measures will ‘likely increase inequality,’ urges rethink

A couple of weeks ago Owl asked the question: are the Tories on course to crash the economy? 

Regrettably, we now know the answer is YES, and we are all going to suffer.

The IMF usually reserves criticism of this sort for “basket case” economies.

Seems hard to see the economy growing when underlying borrowing costs are twice that of Germany. Standby for consequences on mortgages and house prices. Where is the party of “sound money” – Owl 

www.reuters.com 

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday took aim at new British financial plans that have roiled markets, warning that “large and untargeted fiscal packages” would likely increase inequality in Britain and could undermine monetary policy.

In its first comments on plans by Britain’s new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, which have sent sterling and bonds into free fall, the IMF urged UK authorities to consider providing more targeted support to families and business instead of sizable tax cuts and sharply higher government spending.

“We are closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK and are engaged with the authorities,” an IMF spokesperson said, in response to a query from Reuters after the British pound hit an all-time low amid spiking market concerns.

“Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy,” the spokesperson said in the IMF’s first public reaction.

Kwarteng, who on Friday unveiled a budget aimed at growing the economy by cutting taxes and sharply increasing government borrowing, responded to market mayhem by promising to roll out medium-term debt-cutting plans on Nov. 23.

The global lender understands that Britain’s “sizable fiscal package” was intended to help residents deal with higher energy prices and to boost growth via tax cuts and supply measures, but such measures could put fiscal policy at cross purposes with monetary policy, the spokesperson said.

“The nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality,” it added.

Kwarteng’s Nov. 23 budget would provide an “early opportunity for the UK government to consider ways to provide support that is more targeted and reevaluate the tax measures, especially those that benefit high-income earners,” the spokesperson added.

Britain was forced to apply for an IMF loan of nearly $4 billion during the 1976 financial crisis, with IMF negotiators insisting on deep cuts in public expenditure at the time.

IMF officials have warned repeatedly in recent months of the need to carefully calibrate fiscal and monetary policy as central bankers raise interest rates across the globe to get inflation under control.

Meanwhile the cost of borrowing increases:

10 year gilt yield is now higher than that of Greece and Italy and more than twice the equivalent borrowing cost for Germany.

.

Former Ofsted inspector to lead independent Devon County Council review into failure to act over Humphreys

An ex-Ofsted inspector will lead an independent review into how Devon County Council failed to properly deal with concerns made in 2014 about a former school governor from Exmouth who was later jailed for historic sex offences, writes local democracy reporter, Ollie Heptinstall.

[Rather undermines EDDC Chief Executive Mark Willliams’ criticism of Cllr Jess Bailey’s suggestion that a specialist investigative company, rather than a “Legal 500 recommended firm of solicitors” should conduct the EDDC investigation. One wonders whether DCC is “sufficiently sighted on the legal framework, issues and implications of this issue”, to quote again from MW. Horses for courses? – Owl]

Watch the EDDC debate on whether or not to conduct an investigation on the EDDC Youtube channel 6.00pm tonight.

eastdevonnews.co.uk 

John Humphreys, who also previously served as an East Devon district Councillor and mayor of Exmouth, is just over a year into a 21-year prison sentence for sexually assaulting two teenage boys in the early 1990s and early 2000s.

It was revealed in June that the National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children (NSPCC) had raised concerns about him in 2014, when allegations had already been made to the police.

But Devon County Council chose not to take any action after officers discussed the case with police, a decision the council’s cabinet member for schools, Councillor Andrew Leadbetter (Conservative, Wearside and Topsham) has admitted was wrong, and that it should have shared the concerns more widely.

In his written response in June to county and district councillor Jess Bailey, Cllr Leadbetter said: “I can confirm that the local authority designated officer (LADO) received a referral via the NSPCC in 2014. As part of the LADO process, our officers discussed the case with the police.

“The police were already aware of the individual and the allegations that had been made and advised us that there was not enough evidence to investigate further, and it was agreed that no further action would be taken.

“We have evaluated the response that was made in 2014 and concluded that we should have held a multi-agency meeting to share information and consider what, if any, next steps could be taken.”

After previously confirming the investigation would be undertaken, the council has now revealed it will be carried out by experienced social care practitioner and former Ofsted inspector Mike Ferguson.

Since 2018, he has worked as an independent children’s social care consultant, undertaking practice reviews with a range of local authorities.

Work has begun on the review and is expected to be completed later in the autumn.

East Devon District Council (EDDC) has also been looking into how Humphreys – despite his 2016 arrest – was allowed to carry on in his role as Councillor until May 2019, then awarded the honorary title of alderman later that year.

Later this week (Wednesday, September 28) EDDC will decide whether to conduct a formal investigation into why Humphreys was not removed from his position sooner.

 

John Humphreys investigation continues

More on the timeline of who knew what about John Humphreys.

The point that Owl made in Monday’s post was that information has emerged piecemeal, only when someone has had the courage not just to ask questions, but to press them home.

What prompted this latest revelation was Cllr Jess Bailey formally asking, in June, when concerns were first raised with Devon County Council about John Humphreys and what action had been taken to keep children safe.

In a written response, to her, Cllr Leadbetter (Cabinet member for Children’s Services and Schools) said: “I can confirm that the Local Authority Designated Officer (LADO) received a referral via the NSPCC in 2014. As part of the LADO process, our officers discussed the case with the police. The police were already aware of the individual and the allegations that had been made, and advised us that there was not enough evidence to investigate further, and it was agreed that no further action would be taken.

We also need to bear in mind that what the Conservative Party “knew” might be less than what its individual members knew. Until we have a better understanding of the timeline of events it is difficult to see what needs to be done to reduce the chance of this happening again.

Devon County Council is now conducting its own investigation but the Devon and Cornwall Police Force is not. Tomorrow, EDDC is to consider two options.

It is over a year since John Humphreys was jailed for 21 years

Georgia Cornish. www.exmouthjournal.co.uk

The Conservative Party claims it was not informed about a paedophile councillor among its ranks, despite Devon County Council and East Devon District Council officers being aware of allegations for many years.

John Humphreys was an East Devon councillor for around 20 years, and at one point also mayor of Exmouth. In 2021 he was charged with 10 accounts of serious sexual offences against two teenagers in the 1990s and 2000s, and is now serving 21 years in prison.

A motion to be put this week to East Devon District Council (EDDC), which was run during that time by the Conservatives, but is now under the control of the East Devon Alliance party, asks the council to commission an investigation into how Humphreys was able to continue as a councillor and a school governor, despite his arrest in 2016.

On Wednesday 7 September, EDDC received a reply from the Conservative Party following a request to East Devon MP Simon Jupp to investigate. Mr Jupp says he is not involved in selecting prospective councillors and passed the letter to the chair of the local party for a response.

In that letter, Cllr Bruce De Saram writes: “Devon County Council has admitted that they were notified of concerns by the NSPCC dating back as far as 2014 and of [John Humphreys’] arrest in 2016 and failed to follow the correct process…..EDDC were informed of the case by Devon County Council in March 2016 through the LADO process.”

LADO (Local Authority Designated Officer) is a role in the children’s services department of the county council role which coordinates a response to concerns about risks to children. They convened meetings to discuss Cllr Humphreys case in 2016.

Mr De Saram’s letter to EDDC continues: “The Conservative Party was not invited to join these LADO meetings. The Conservative Party was not informed by the LADO of the case.

“The LADO process provides a vital opportunity for information to be shared in a confidential environment between all relevant organisations in circumstances such as this.

“It is concerning that the Conservative Party was not informed or invited to attend as we clearly had a role in this, which the current council is undertaking to hold us accountable for.

“Had we been involved in this process and made aware of the details we would have been able to take the appropriate steps. This involvement would have ultimately prevented from him becoming a Conservative candidate and undertaking activities on behalf of the Conservative Party as detailed in your letter.”

In May, East Devon’s chief executive Mark Williams confirmed in a memo to councillors that one of its officers attended two LADO meetings called by Devon County Council in 2016, the year Cllr Humphreys was arrested on suspicion of assaulting one boy. However, he was not charged or the information about his arrest made public. He had also been questioned for similar offences in 2005 but no charges were brought.

In Mr Williams’ email in May this year, prompted by an enquiry by the Local Democracy Reporting Service, he told councillors of a further LADO meeting planned for November 2016 “prior to any decision by the police to charge Mr Humphreys. While a further LADO meeting was organised for January 2017, this was postponed a number of times, and then cancelled.”

Mr Williams describes how the East Devon council officer then had no further communication with the county council or the police after November 2016. “The officer was unaware that Mr Humphreys had been charged [at a much later date] or that he was later to face trial,” Mr Williams wrote.

“He only became aware of the fact that Mr Humphreys had been charged and stood trial after the conviction in 2021.

“It is important to know that LADO meetings are held in the strictest confidence. Furthermore, the police also give clear instruction on what can or can’t be said so as to avoid potentially jeopardising any information.”

East Devon District Council is holding an extraordinary consultative meeting on Wednesday [28 September], at which the report concerning Mr Humphreys will be reviewed. The council will be asked to decide whether they believe an independent investigation is necessary.

Councillor Jessica Bailey has put forward a proposal for an independent investigation which is estimated to take eight to 12 weeks if commissioned.

Labour surges in polls as ‘clown show’ economics turns off voters

Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting budget. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts Labour 17 points clear of the Tories — a level of support not seen since Tony Blair won his landslide victory in 2001.

Oliver Wright, Steven Swinford, Chris Smyth www.thetimes.co.uk

The survey revealed widespread public opposition, including among Tory supporters, to the tax-cutting measures announced by the chancellor last week.

Kwarteng’s decision to scrap the 45 per cent rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000 was opposed by 72 per cent of voters including 69 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in 2019.

The move to lift restrictions on bankers’ bonuses was rejected by 71 per cent of the electorate, including 67 per cent of Tory voters.

Just 9 per cent of voters thought that the measures outlined in the budget would make them better off, while only 15 per cent believed they would achieve the government’s aim of kickstarting economic growth.

Overall, 60 per cent said Kwarteng’s £45 billion tax giveaway was unaffordable for the country and 25 per cent thought that the government had a clear plan to manage the economy.

The poll findings will alarm Tory MPs coming on top of today’s market reaction to the government’s plans to increase borrowing in the short term to boost growth.

Just 19 per cent of voters thought Kwarteng’s budget was “fair” — the worst polling figure since YouGov began to ask the question in 2010.

One Conservative source said: “If your plan is unpopular with the markets but popular with voters, then that’s an OK place to be. But if you’ve spent all this money and it’s unpopular with everyone, then that is very dangerous.”

YouGov’s survey, which was conducted over the weekend, showed that Tory support had fallen by four points to 28 per cent in the aftermath of the budget while Labour’s had risen five points to 45 per cent and the Lib Dems were unchanged on 8 per cent.

It is the biggest Labour lead that YouGov has recorded since it began polling in 2001. In the election that year, Labour won 43 per cent of the vote and took 412 seats. The Tories won 30 per cent of the vote and 166 seats.

The decline in support for the party appears to be linked directly to the reaction of the public to last Friday’s “mini-budget”. Just 10 per cent of voters thought that Kwarteng was doing a “good job” while 68 per cent said that the government was managing the economy badly.

Despite announcing tax cuts and scrapping Rishi Sunak’s national insurance rise, only 9 per cent of voters said they felt they would be better off next year. The same proportion believed that Kwarteng’s growth strategy would make the country as a whole better off over the next 12 months.

Ministers will point to some of the specific measures in Kwarteng’s package that voters supported in the poll.

Jon Ashworth: Working people think Liz Truss has lost the plot

Some 60 per cent backed the move to cut the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 19 per cent while 59 per cent supported reversing the national insurance rise. About half backed the planned changes to stamp duty.

However, just 31 per cent supported the decision to freeze corporation tax while 11 per cent agreed with scrapping the 45 per cent tax rate for the highest earners.

They were also unconvinced by Kwarteng’s plan for new investment zones free from some planning restrictions and regulations, with only 34 per cent saying they were a good idea.

Labour reacted jubilantly to the market turmoil, with a senior frontbencher mocking the government’s “clown show” economics.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, called Friday’s statement a “kami-Kwasi budget”. He suggested that Liz Truss was still “a deep-state Liberal Democrat, deliberately crashing the Conservative Party — there is no other plausible explanation for the clown show we’ve seen last week”. The prime minister was president of Oxford’s Lib Dem society as a student.

Lord Mandelson suggested that the next election could be comparable to the 1997 victory by Tony Blair for Labour. He claimed that the mini-budget saw the Tories forfeit their reputation for competence on the economy and described the government as “exhausted and run out of steam”.

Huw Merriman, a senior Tory MP, said Labour’s largest poll lead over the Tories in more than 20 years suggested that Truss was losing voters “with policies we warned against”.

He tweeted: “Those of us who backed Rishi Sunak lost the contest but this poll suggests that the victor is losing our voters with policies we warned against.

“For the good of our country, and the livelihoods of everyone in our country, I still hope to be proven wrong.”

Tim Farron offers help to PM and Chancellor…… and other headlines

“The last time the pound sunk as low as it is today, I was 15 and doing economics O’level. If I have a good search in the garage, I might find my text books in which case I’ll be happy to lend them to the PM and the Chancellor. Their need is apparently greater now…”

The pound Kwatanks – the Metro

Out of Control – Mirror

Don’t panic we have got a plan – Daily Express

Pound’s plummet underlines schoolboy error by Kwasi Kwarteng

The savage sell-off in the pound in east Asia overnight [Monday] was further evidence – should any be needed – that confidence in the new Liz Truss government is rapidly draining away.

Larry Elliott www.theguardian.com 

Sterling fell to its lowest level against the dollar, and despite an attempt at a rally in early London trading, the likelihood is that parity against the dollar will be tested before long. September tends to be the month for a sterling crisis – and so it has proved again.

Part of the story of the pound’s weakness is a function of dollar strength but that does not explain why sterling has fallen so rapidly since the end of last week. There are three UK-related factors behind the fall.

First, once a currency hits the skids it is hard to stop it. Momentum trading took over in the aftermath of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget and it has proved hard to halt.

Second, Kwarteng committed a schoolboy error by pledging further tax cuts in a full budget planned for later this year. If the markets are worried about the state of the government’s finances and the increase in borrowing needed to fund your plans, it is not the wisest course of action to add to those concerns. Kwarteng’s inexperience has been exposed.

Third, the financial markets don’t really know how the Bank of England will respond to the events of the past three days. Threadneedle Street raised interest rates by half a point last Thursday but there has been speculation of an emergency meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee as early as Monday.

Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at Capital Economics, says a rate rise of one – or even one and a half – percentage points would give the markets some reassurance that the Bank was committed to returning inflation to its 2% target.

While that would look like the Bank passing judgment on Kwarteng’s tax cuts, the alternative would be for the governor, Andrew Bailey, to give a strong statement that the MPC will raise rates again at its next meeting in November.

However, as Dales points out, November looks a long way away in the context of what has become a disorderly rout for the pound. Kwarteng would also need to show the Bank and the Treasury were of one voice by making clear he was committed to financial discipline, which would be seen as a U-turn by the chancellor after his weekend comments.

East Devon press ahead with local plan settlements despite protests

East Devon is pressing ahead with its local plan 2020-2040 with recommendations to endorse the sites suggested for development, despite protests from several strategic planning committee members.

seaton.nub.news

On Tuesday [6 September] the committee discussed a report outlining a number of preferred and “second best” sites for what they call tier one and two settlements around the district that may be suitable for development.

The tier system references a hierarchy of settlements being discussed, with tier one indicating places in Exmouth, tier two being Honiton and Sidmouth, three covering Axminster, Seaton, Ottery St Mary, Budleigh Salterton and Cranbrook and finally, tier four which includes Clyst St Mary, Uplyme, Colyton, Beer, Broadclyst, Lympstone, Woodbury and Dunkeswell.

Concerns raised in the report included the current plan failing to reach the desired number of new homes, and is currently expected to be 1,899 properties short.

Allocating additional “second best” sites could alleviate the shortfall in tiers one and two, with additional housing planned for tiers three and four once assessments have begun at that level. 

Housing density, currently being modelled at “reasonably typical standard density levels,” could be increased too. Other adjustments could limit the shortfall, as could expanding Cranbrook.

Whilst some objections were raised about the locations of the proposed developments, more concern was expressed about the lack of infrastructure to support these new settlements.

Councillor Jess Bailey [Independent, West Hill and Aylesbeare] said the target for housing was “incredibly burdensome,” and that she feared the manner in which the proposed sites have been assessed is “too anecdotal”.

She is calling for more refined assessments, ones that outline what would happen should infrastructure such as schools and healthcare provision be lacking.

The lack of infrastructure across Devon has been highlighted recently in a BBC survey finding that no dental practices in the county are accepting adult NHS patients.

The waiting list is reported to have reached 78,000 patients last summer, with an increasing number of dentists dropping patients from their NHS lists.

The recommendations, backed by the majority of committee members, will be applied to future plans and revisited at future meeting.

Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 12 September

Sewage spills go undetected as water companies give watchdog “dodgy data”

Sewage spills into rivers and the sea often go undetected because water companies are supplying faulty data to a government watchdog, analysis for The Times suggests.

Rhys Blakely www.thetimes.co.uk 

The findings will fuel concerns that a £56 billion plan to reduce discharges will be undermined if water companies are allowed to continue monitoring their own performances.

The issue will be in the spotlight in a High Court hearing this week at which Ofwat, the water industry regulator, will be accused of ignoring its duty to protect the environment.

The latest analysis looked at spills of sewage into rivers and the sea from “storm overflow” emergency outlets that are supposed to be used only in severe conditions.

By looking at detailed data collected in 36 sewage treatment works — information that the Environment Agency (EA) can access but does not routinely check — 1,516 days were identified between 2018 and 2021 when it appeared highly likely that sewage was released in conditions that did not meet permits, making them illegal.

The EA is supposed to be made aware of them but many were not reported. For example, the analysis included the sewage treatment works at Henley-on-Thames, a noted rowing area. Thames Water, which operates the sewage works, told the EA there were no spills in 2020. The analysis suggests the plant released sewage in breach of its permit on seven days that year.

The analysis also looked at the Woodstock sewage treatment works which discharges into the River Glyme which flows through lakes in the grounds of Blenheim Palace.

Thames Water told the EA in 2020 there were no spills but added that this was a mistake and the report would be corrected. The new analysis suggests the sewage plant, in a site of special scientific interest, spilled for about 363 hours that year.

The private utility company has not updated its 2020 report, which was submitted 18 months ago. It has not disputed the new analysis. The report also includes the Ambleside sewage plant in Cumbria, which discharges into the River Rothay and into Windermere, England’s largest lake. Pollution concerns were raised this summer because the lake suffered high levels of potentially toxic blue-green algae.

Ambleside appears not to have submitted any data on spills to the EA for last year. Data supplied by United Utilities for the analysis suggests that it spilled for more than 900 hours. United said it did not agree with the analysis, claiming it was “largely based on assumption rather than evidence”.

Overall, 16 of the 36 sewage works examined appear to have provided incorrect data to the EA.

Professor Peter Hammond, of Windrush Against Sewage Pollution (Wasp), carried out the analysis. His exposure of illegal spills helped to force the government to begin an investigation that led to a proposal last month to tackle the problem.

The spills involve “storm overflows” which act as relief valves for the sewage system. They are supposed to discharge excess storm water, combined with untreated sewage, directly into water bodies during periods of heavy rainfall.

Hammond has shown that many overflows are spilling waste into rivers when there is little or no rain and before treatment works are working at full capacity.

The government plan calls for a mandatory £56 billion investment programme by the water companies.

There are about 13,350 storm overflows in England, discharging to rivers. A report commissioned by the government looked at 9,240 of them and concluded that they were used more than 340,000 times in 2020.

The government plan calls for a 14 per cent reduction in these spills by 2030 and a 50 per cent reduction by 2040. The new analysis suggests, however, that the EA will not be able to monitor compliance if it continues to rely on water companies monitoring themselves.

Ofwat said that it was reviewing Hammond’s analysis. The regulator said: “What we are witnessing, with sewage being released into the environment, isn’t acceptable. Water companies do not take enough responsibility for their impact on the environment.”

A spokeswoman for the Rivers Trust said: “This report emphasises the inherent failures with the current system of self-reporting sewage spills. It’s clear the data has not been adequately audited and in many cases is invalid.

“We need a much better process of quality assurance from the water companies themselves, plus a stronger audit from the EA.”

Five of the ten water companies that were covered did not take issue with Hammond’s analysis of the performance of the treatment included in the study. However, United Utilities Severn Trent, South West, Anglian Water and Yorkshire said that they did not agree with his findings. An Anglian representative said: “We don’t recognise the data being put forward in this report as being correct.”

Hammond’s report also highlights the difficulty he has faced in getting some water companies to share data. “There are 40 STWs named [in the new report] but only 36 analysed because of data being withheld,” he said.

He said Severn Trent and United Utilities — judged by Ofwat to have met an “industry leading” standard for environmental performance — have refused to supply detailed data for sewage spills in 2020 and last year from 4,500 overflows whereas the other eight water companies complied fully with the request.

A spokeswoman for United said: “While there is an ongoing regulatory investigation into the performance of wastewater treatment works, it is right and proper that the relevant data is shared only with the investigating authorities.”

‘Sheep or jobs – your choice!’

Councillors debate what a freeport will mean

Councillors in South Hams were asked to choose between sheep and jobs  – including an exchange about the relative merits of eating grass or money – during a debate about the planned Plymouth and South Devon Freeport.

Philip Churm, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Langage Energy Park (image courtesy: Google Maps)

They were discussing the need to acquire land for the proposed Langage Energy Park through compulsory purchase orders (CPO).

In April, South Hams District Council (SHDC) agreed to take part in the freeport project, which involves Plymouth, South Hams and West Devon. 

Freeports are areas where normal tax and customs rules do not apply. Imports can enter with simplified customs documentation and without paying tariffs.

During Thursday’s full council meeting [22 September] members debated a recommendation to approve an area of land next to the A38 at Langage which may need to be obtained by compulsory purchase. 

The legal costs for this could reach £350,000.  

Green Party councillor for Dartington and Staverton, Jacqi Hodgson, criticised the plan, suggesting the land could be better used.  

She said: “We need the land that we have for food, if we’re going to reduce our carbon footprint as massively as we need to, and we’re going to need all the land we can to grow our food. 

“And I know this is all about money, but as they always say, ‘you can’t actually eat money.’ 

“I would just ask, if we’re meant to be requiring net biodiversity gain, how are they going to do that by converting green-field land that’s currently supporting sheep farming and food production?”

Langage Energy Park including the area that may need to be compulsorily purchased (image courtesy: SHDC)

Council leader and Conservative member for Salcombe and Thurlestone Judy Pearce responded by highlighting how the economic benefits outweighed the disruption. 

“It’s all very well to say that we ought to have sheep on the land or we ought to be building houses instead or something like that,” said Cllr Pearce. “But actually this freeport is going to provide some really well-paid jobs.”

Cllr Pearce suggested successful businesses and well-paid employees pay tax which benefit all members of society.  

“If we don’t have things like freeports and employment areas, we’re going to get none of those taxes in – none of those business rates. And there’s not going to be any money to run any of our public services.

“So you take your choice. You can either have sheep or we can be better off.  And a lot of people these days are vegetarians anyway. So what are you going to do, go out and eat the grass?”

Langage Energy Park is one of three freeport tax sites proposed for Devon. The others are at South Yard in Devonport and part of Sherford Employment Zone; providing a combined footprint of around 130 hectares for development.

The vote to approve the compulsory purchase orders was passed by 21 in favour, four against and four abstentions.  

Total capital investment in the freeport is expected to reach £311 million; made up of £25 million in a government seed capital grant and matched locally with £29 million.  The total private sector investment is expected to be almost £247 million.

EDDC to decide on investigation into Humphreys at Extraordinary Consultative Meeting Wednesday 28 September

John Humphteys was convicted in 2021 of the historic rape of two boys and sentenced to 21 years.

He was first questioned in 2005 but police did not find sufficient evidence for a prosecution.

Following a complaint by a second victim, Humphreys was arrested eleven years later, in 2016, before being released on bail on suspicion of sex crimes against children. 

John Humphreys was Mayor of Exmouth from 2012 to 2014 and served for 12 years as a Conservative councillor on East Devon District Council (EDDC). He was also a governor of a primary school in Exmouth and was appointed an alderman by EDDC in 2019. He accepted the honour despite knowing that he was under investigation by the police.

EDDC in an Extraordinary Consultative Meeting to be held online on Wednesday 28 September at 6.00pm is to decide whether or not to investigate how all this could have happened and what lessons can be learned.

The issues couldn’t be more serious: the protection and safeguarding of children.

Owl believes this online meeting must be witnessed by as many East Devon residents as possible, preferably in real time, alternatively later on the EDDC Youtube channel. 

More than enough evidence for investigation

In May the inews.co.uk carried an investigative report on Humphreys uncovering evidence that:

“The council knew Humphreys was being investigated for sex offences from 2016 but did nothing to prevent him continuing with his duties, which involved him coming into contact with children”

Also:

“A senior council official knew about the police investigation into Humphreys in 2016 because Devon and Cornwall Police asked him, in a formal meeting, if Humphreys’ continuing role as a councillor would bring him into contact with children, i has learned.”

And:

“A leaked memo from East Devon District Council (EDDC) chief executive Mark Williams, which was sent to all 60 councillors earlier this month, states: “An officer knew something dating back to 2016 but was under a duty of confidentiality.”

“A second councillor is also alleged to have told a fellow member that he knew Humphreys had a court hearing coming up but it is not clear if he knew details of the charges.” ( Covered in this post)

These are more than enough grounds to prompt an investigation. Obviously in a spirit of candour to learn lessons, rather than recrimination.

What has happened since decisions to proceed were taken in May?

At the time this inews article was published in May, EDDC seemed intent on conducting an external investigation looking into the circumstances around Humphreys from 2016, when he was first arrested to the point when he was convicted and jailed in August 2021. The Chief Executive, Mark Williams, was tasked with investigating how this might be done.

In June Mark Williams is quoted as saying “Rushing something as important as this is, in my opinion, inappropriate.”

Then, in the September cabinet meeting, at short notice, Mark Williams outlined reasons why he now advised against a separate independent investigation and requested an extraordinary consultative meeting (EGM) to consider this.

He indicated that, in his opinion, the council should be focusing its attention on the future, rather than rake over old ground. “That’s why I don’t think it would be a proportionate use of public money merely to sort of focus in on Humphreys.”  

Council is now to consider two options

This crucial meeting is now scheduled to be held online on Wednesday 28 September at 6.00pm.

The council will be asked to decide between two options

Option (A) This Council hereby commissions Verita [an independent investigations company] to carry out an independent investigation in accordance with Verita’s proposal attached (“the Investigation”) and instructs Simon Davey the Strategic Lead for Finance immediately to complete (or authorise completion of) the contract and any necessary paperwork with Verita; Approves a budget of up to £45,000 (exc VAT) for the Investigation. ……[Veritas to work through Lead for Strategic Finance and Cllrs Ian Thomas (Chair), Sarah Jackson (portfolio holder for Democracy and Transparency) and Jess Bailey].

In brief, this is a proposal to conduct an investigation with the aim of establishing a timeline of what was known, to understand what decision-making processes were involved and the extent that Humphreys was considered a safeguarding risk, to determine whether any improvements could be made and to flag up any other significant issues that arise. [View full Verita proposal here]

Option (B) That Council approves a budget of £45,000 and that a Legal 500 recommended firm of Solicitors is appointed in accordance with contract standing orders to undertake an investigation and report which will provide the Council with a full understanding of the legal issues and implications arising from the investigation, prosecution and conviction of John Humphreys as far as it relates to the role of EDDC and its officers and members and that delegated authority be given to one of the statutory officers, in consultation with the Portfolio Holders for Council & Corporate Coordination and Democracy, Transparency & Communications, to progress the investigation.

In brief, this looks like an officer led, administrative review of procedures and legal issues concerning the council, focusing on the future.

Comment: Owl doesn’t see how you can look to the future (Option B) without having fully understood what lessons needed to be learned from the past (Option A).

Candour and transparency

It is now six years since Humphreys was arrested and a year since he was convicted. Despite his very long sentence, reflecting the gravity of his crime, there has been very little press coverage. Information has emerged piecemeal but only when someone has had the courage not just to ask questions, but to press them. For example, it was only after a question from Cllr Paul Arnott on 4 May asking for clarification that Simon Jupp MP issued the following statement saying

 “For less than two months in 2019, I lived at a flat owned by Mr Humphreys but was completely unaware of his abhorrent crimes for which he was jailed in August 2021.

“I deplore his actions. Had I known anything about his crimes, I would not have lived at the property and would have immediately reported my concerns to the police.”

At that time the local Tory party was very much in “No Comment” mode.  Over a year since Humphreys’ conviction we can, at last, see a formal “nothing to see here” response from them dated 7 September.

Would it be unfair for Owl to describe all this as foot dragging?

Administrative inertia?

Reading between the lines it looks as if a few feathers have been ruffled in trying to set up an inquiry.

Given the persistent reluctance, to date, to grasp this problem with urgency, frankly this is a good sign.

Note these quotes from the agenda papers “Report”, para 12, page 7.

“Cllr Bailey did not discuss her proposal with any of the statutory officers. We have highlighted our concerns to Cllr Bailey in correspondence but in summary form, having reviewed the Verita website, the Verita proposal and also read the report that Verita did for the Green Party, it does not suggest that Verita have relevant legal expertise and knowledge or experience of local government to warrant an exemption being made to contract standing orders. For example, the aim of investigation section displays a fundamental misunderstanding in that it assumes the Council was in the position (assuming it had knowledge) to take decisions in relation to John Humphreys continuing as a councillor.”

[Despite Mark Williams comments above, see here for Verita’s credentials and track record for conducting sensitive investigations of this sort, particularly for the Green Party, see here, and form your own view. It is worth mentioning that Cllr Jess Bailey is a member of the Law Society].

Followed by this general “put down” :

My reflection on what has been said so far in Cabinet and Council is that members are not sufficiently sighted on the legal framework, issues and implications of this issue. 

However, the briefing pack contains Counsel’s advice “In the Matter of John Humphrey” commissioned by Mark Williams. 

The Council the power but has it the will?

The “bottom line” from this legal advice is that the Council does have power to undertake an investigation, provided it is reasonable to do so and follows the advice given in para 21 with its scope observing the principles outlined in paras 16 and 23 to 28.

Footnote:

In June, Cllr Jess Bailey, formally asked when concerns were first raised with Devon County Council about John Humphreys and what action had been taken to keep children safe.

In a written response, Cllr Leadbetter (Cabinet member for Children’s Services and Schools) said: “I can confirm that the Local Authority Designated Officer (LADO) received a referral via the NSPCC in 2014. As part of the LADO process, our officers discussed the case with the police. The police were already aware of the individual and the allegations that had been made, and advised us that there was not enough evidence to investigate further, and it was agreed that no further action would be taken.

Owl understands that Devon County Council is now conducting its own investigation but the Devon and Cornwall Police Force is not.

Liz Truss chief of staff Mark Fullbrook is paid through his lobbying company

The prime minister’s chief of staff is being paid through his lobbying company in a highly unusual arrangement that could allow him to pay less tax.

Gabriel Pogrund www.thetimes.co.uk

Mark Fullbrook insists he is not being paid through his company for tax reasons and has obtained no tax benefit from the arrangement. However, he is refusing to explain the agreement that lets him direct government strategy without being directly employed by the government.

Previous holders of the role have been treated like any other special adviser (Spad), appointed on a temporary civil service contract and paid a salary that is made public. Fullbrook is instead a contractor and will receive any payment through Fullbrook Strategies, a private lobbying company he created in April but which he says has suspended commercial activities.

One Whitehall source said it was “unheard of” for a No 10 official of his seniority to be employed in this way although Fullbrook disputed this. It is unclear what the implications of the arrangement are from a financial and transparency perspective.

Between April and June, according to the Office of the Registrar of Consultant Lobbyists, Fullbrook’s company contacted the government on behalf of clients including the Libyan House of Representatives, which is opposed by the West and the UN, an energy provider and a PPE firm linked to a fundamentalist Christian sect.

It announced it had “suspended” its commercial activities earlier this month after Fullbrook was appointed by Liz Truss to be her top aide.

However he is continuing to use it as a vehicle to receive his publicly funded salary. The equivalent post under Boris Johnson carried a salary of £140,000.

The arrangement will lead to questions days after No 10 scrapped the so-called IR35 reforms of previous Conservative governments that were designed to stop people paying themselves via a company to avoid tax.

In 2019, HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) won a case against BBC presenters who were told to pay back hundreds of thousands of pounds in tax after working via personal service companies when they were employees in all but name.

In 2017 and 2021, the Treasury introduced measures that made employers responsible for determining the tax status of workers who provided their services through a company.

They were required to decide if a person was a freelance contractor, meaning they could pay corporation or dividend tax on any earnings, or whether they were effectively an employee and liable for income tax. Employers who got it wrong were required to pay tax, penalties and interest.

On Friday, Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, said the burden would once again fall on employees to determine their own status, with critics saying the system would become vulnerable to abuse.

Dan Neidle, a tax expert and the founder of Tax Policy Associates, said he could not fathom any reason for Fullbrook’s arrangement. “I don’t understand why someone would do it,” he said. “Before yesterday, responsibility for applying IR35 [rules] — and liability for getting it wrong — would have fallen on the civil service. I’d expect them to take a very conservative view.

“The effect of the budget change is that Fullbrook gets to decide himself. Of course [it is] subject to later HMRC challenge, but it still gives him an ability to take a more aggressive view than the civil service would have permitted.”

Fullbrook is already facing questions after The Sunday Times revealed he had been interviewed by FBI agents in connection with an alleged criminal conspiracy to bribe a US politician and influence the outcome of an election in Puerto Rico.

He has since signed an agreement with US law enforcement and is co-operating as a witness. It is understood that he is not under investigation. He denies any knowledge of the bribe and in a statement says he is “confident” he behaved within the law at all times.

According to the Institute for Government, Spads are appointed as temporary civil servants. They are given contracts and their employment and salary band is published by the Cabinet Office annually. After leaving government they are required to inform the appointments watchdog of any private sector appointments.

A former No 10 insider said some Spads had in the past “topped up” their salaries by receiving extra income from Conservative Party Headquarters as they provided party political, as well as policy, advice.

Edward Lister, previously Johnson’s principal strategic adviser and now Baron Udny-Lister, continued to be paid for consultancy by a property developer while in Downing Street. But the ex-No 10 source also said there was no precedent for Spads being paid for their government work primarily through a consultancy company.

It is unclear whether Fullbrook’s salary will be reported as standard and whether being paid through his company could alter the usual terms of a Spad’s employment in any other way.

A spokesman for Fullbrook said: “This is not an unusual arrangement. It was not put in place for tax purposes and Mr Fullbrook derives no tax benefit from it.”

A government source said: “It is not unusual for a special adviser or civil servant to join government on secondment. Any government employee hired on secondment is subject to the usual special adviser or civil service codes.”

Conservation groups brand mini-budget an ‘attack on nature’

The government has been accused of launching an “attack on nature” with its mini-budget, which conservationists warn could roll back environmental rules.

Miranda Bryant www.theguardian.com 

Groups including the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildlife Trusts and the National Trust have criticised plans, announced on Friday, to create 38 “investment zones” across England.

The announcement of the new areas by the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, where planning rules will be loosened to release more land for commercial use and housing, will act as a “carte blanche” for development, leading conservation charities warned, and represent an “unprecedented attack on nature”.

“Make no mistake, we are angry. This government has today launched an attack on nature,” the RSPB tweeted. “As of today, from Cornwall to Cumbria, Norfolk to Nottingham, wildlife is facing one of the greatest threats it’s faced in decades.”

Making reference to a new bill introduced to parliament on Thursday, which could lead to the removal of EU environmental protections such as the Habitats Regulations, the charity added: “What the government has proposed in today’s mini-budget on top of yesterday’s announcements potentially tears up the most fundamental legal protections our remaining wildlife has.”

Beccy Speight, the charity’s chief executive, said: “Nature is already in trouble. Taken together, these announcements, combined with the rumoured watering down of the new land management schemes for farming, could be the final nail in its coffin.”

She added: “Our economy and our health depend on a thriving natural world.”

In a strongly worded tweet in support of the RSPB, the Wildlife Trusts said: “Make no mistake – we are also incredibly angry.

“We stand with RSPB England in calling out the unprecedented attack on nature launched by UK government over the last few days. We’ll be challenging this together and asking for our supporters to stand with us.”

Craig Bennett, the trust’s chief executive, said environmental organisations were previously reassured over nature protections lost through Brexit, but now nature is in “catastrophe”.

“Farming reform was supposed to be the silver lining but now the government looks set to renege on that too,” he said, adding: “We need more nature.”

Sharing the RSPB’s tweet, the National Trust pledged to work with other nature charities and supporters to “defend important protections for nature long into the future”.

Labour also joined criticism over the planned investment zones, calling it “reckless”.

Lisa Nandy, the shadow levelling up secretary, said: “Slashing standards, destroying the environment and scrapping affordable housing is reckless and offers no prospect of sustainable growth. For most people, that’s levelling down, not up.

“This country needs a serious plan to get jobs and investment into every nation and region, money back into people’s pockets and locally driven growth, not more Amazon warehouses and deregulation.”

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) dismissed the claims, tweeting: “We have a plan for economic growth. It is not true to claim we are attacking nature nor going back on our commitments.

“We have legislated through the Environment Act and will continue to improve our regulations and wildlife laws in line with our ambitious vision.”

A Defra spokesperson added: “Farmers are brilliant at producing high-quality food for consumption at home and for export and now we need them to go further, as productivity gains have been flat for many years.

“To boost the rural economy, food production and our food security, we will continue to support farmers and land managers by reviewing farm regulation, boosting investment and innovation in the sector.

“This autumn we will set out our plans for working with industry to maximise the long-term productivity, resilience, competitiveness, and environmental stewardship of the British countryside.”

A Treasury spokesperson claimed that investment zones will “enable locally elected leaders to set out bold new visions for their areas, and we want to ensure that they have every tool available to them in driving forwards local growth.”

They added: “The government remains committed to setting a new legally binding target to halt the decline of biodiversity in England by 2030.

“We are working closely with areas to develop tailored proposals that support their ambitions and deliver benefits for local residents.”

Mini-budget benefits London and south-east England, study shows

It also shows Kwasi Kwarteng’s new tax and benefit policies will result in those on middle incomes losing most, with the poorest fifth of households gaining an average of £90, the middle fifth losing £780 and the top 5% of earners gaining £2,520.

Welcome to Trussonomics – Owl

Miranda Bryant www.theguardian.com 

The chancellor’s mini-budget will disproportionately benefit London and the south-east, a new analysis has found, marking a sharp U-turn from the levelling up strategy of the previous government.

According to the Resolution Foundation, an independent thinktank, households in London and the south-east could gain an average of £1,600 next year from Friday’s fiscal statement. This is three times as much as those in Wales, the north-east and Yorkshire, which it predicts will gain an average of £500.

Its calculations also found that overall, Kwasi Kwarteng’s new tax and benefit policies will result in those on middle incomes losing most, with the poorest fifth of households gaining an average of £90, the middle fifth losing £780 and the top 5% of earners gaining £2,520.

The measures announced by the new chancellor on Friday included a string of tax giveaways that are expected to benefit the rich at the expense of those at the lower end of the income spectrum.

The new measures include scrapping the 45p additional tax rate on earnings above £150,000, removing the cap on bankers’ bonuses, cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax to 25% and doubling the stamp duty holiday on property purchases to £250,000.

The incomes of the richest 5% will grow by 2% in the next financial year as a result of the tax cuts, the thinktank said, while the remaining 95% of the population will get poorer as the cost of living crisis mounts.

An additional 2.3 million people will fall below the poverty line, it estimates, including 700,000 children.

Meanwhile, the Resolution Foundation said borrowing is on course to settle at 3.4% of GDP in the medium term – 0.7% higher than the average level under the Labour governments between 1997 and 2010.

The £45bn of tax cuts announced by the chancellor would need to increase GDP in the long term by 4% to be self-funding. This, the thinktank said, is implausible.

It said in order for debt to fall in the middle of the current decade without raising taxes, the government would have to make spending cuts of £35bn in 2026-27, a sum that would be on the scale of former chancellor George Osborne’s spending cuts in 2010.

Torsten Bell, the thinktank’s chief executive, accused Kwarteng of “blowing the budget” on a £45bn package of tax cuts.

“In doing so he rejected not just Treasury orthodoxy but also the legacy of Boris Johnson as a wholly new approach to economic policy was unveiled,” he said.

“Today’s Conservative party is no longer fiscally conservative or courting the red wall, with debt on course to rise in each and every year, and its focus is shifting south, where the main beneficiaries of these tax cuts live.”

In spite of the chancellor’s announcement, the cost of living crisis will result in “virtually all households getting poorer” next year, he said, amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

“But while the measures announced won’t prevent more than 2 million people falling below the poverty line, they will mean only the very richest households in Britain seeing their incomes grow,” he added.

While he said the package was likely to boost growth in the short term, it would take a “large dose of economic good fortune” – such as a dramatic fall in gas prices – to make the move fully pay off.

“Should strong growth fail to materialise, and tax rises be ruled out, then Osborne-esque spending cuts would be needed to achieve the chancellor’s fiscal rules.”

The Resolution Foundation’s findings come after the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank said the chancellor was “betting the house” by putting government debt on an “unsustainable rising path”.

The Treasury did not comment on the findings, instead pointing to the chancellor’s speech on Friday.

Covid hospitalisations rise by nearly 20% in a week in England

Coronavirus cases and hospitalisations are rising once again in England after declining since early July, data suggests, with experts warning people should stay at home if ill and get a Covid booster if eligible.

Nicola Davis www.theguardian.com 

According to the latest figures on the government coronavirus dashboard, both the number of cases detected through mass community testing, and patients admitted to hospital with Covid have risen in the past seven days, suggesting the country could be facing a resurgence of the virus.

On Monday, 781 Covid patients were admitted to hospital in England, up from 519 the week before, with the seven day total rising 17%, from 3,434 in the week ending 12 September to 4,015 in the week ending 19 September.

As noted by the Health Service Journal, admissions in the south-west rose 39%, to 509, in the last seven days, and by 30% in the north-east and Yorkshire region.

While data on Covid infection levels across the UK is expected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow, data from the Zoe health study suggests cases are rising, with hints also seen in the latest figures for the number of cases picked up in mass community testing in England.

Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, said there were actions people could take.

“While Covid-19 rates are still low, the latest data for the last seven days indicate a rise in hospitalisations and a rise in positive tests reported from the community,” she said.

“For those eligible, the time to get your autumn booster is now. Getting a booster will give your immune system time to build up your protection against being severely ill from Covid-19 as we move into winter.

“All of the available boosters provide good protection against severe illness from Covid-19 and getting your booster sooner rather than later is crucial.

“As it gets colder and we head towards winter, we will start to see respiratory infections pick up – please try to stay at home if you are unwell and avoid contact with vulnerable people.”

Devon renters priced out by Housing Benefit freeze

People renting homes in Devon are seeing their income increasingly squeezed as housing benefit has failed to keep up with rising costs. Almost all of the 556 privately rented properties available in Devon this week on the Zoopla website are advertised at more than the local housing allowance – the amount paid by housing benefit.

Edward Oldfield www.devonlive.com

The sum varies according to the local rental market but has been frozen since 2020. It is meant to be set to cover the cost of the cheapest 30 per cent of homes on the private rental market. But rents soared in Devon during the pandemic as landlords sold up or forced out tenants so they could switch to more profitable holiday lets. As a result, almost all the properties listed this week in Devon, from one-bedroom flats to four-bedroom homes, were unaffordable from housing benefit payments alone.

That means renters claiming the support will have to find extra cash to cover the shortfall from their other income. It could also force families to move around the county in a kind of postcode lottery, to where the allowance most closely matches rents, usually in more rural areas. Others could end up homeless if they cannot find the extra cash to cover the gap when they are forced to move.

MPs on the select committee for Work and Pensions released a report in the summer recommending an increase in the local housing allowance. The housing campaign group Shelter says: “For renters, the cost of the living crisis is being driven by a failing housing policy. Having to make up ever-increasing shortfalls in housing benefits means that a growing number of families are now having to make the difficult choice between rent and food: eviction or eating. As the cost of living rises, growing housing benefit shortfalls risk pushing people into homelessness as they struggle to avoid rent arrears and eviction.”

Searching on Zoopla this week for two-bedroom homes suitable for a single parent with two young children, the cheapest rental in Exeter was a flat in Cowick Street, advertised at £183 a week. That is more than £25 a week above the allowance of £156.49.

Outside the city, but still in the area covered by the allowance, which has the highest rates in Devon, there was a flat in Starcross at £156, a flat in The Parade, Exmouth, at £167, and a two-bedroom semi-detached house at Christow at £179.

In South Devon, where the allowance is lower at £138.08, there were no affordable properties on offer. The cheapest two-bedroom home was a flat in Pembroke Road, Torquay, at £150 a week. In Torbay outside Torquay, the lowest price was £196 for a two-bedroom terraced house in Brixham. The cheapest similar property in Paignton was a cottage at £207, or a terraced house at £208.

Torbay has a particularly acute problem with housing affordability, as one in four households renting privately and there is a low level of social housing. That means families are even more vulnerable to the housing crisis, as rents rise due to a shortage of available homes, and rises in inflation and energy bills erode spending power. Commenting on a post on Facebook about the effect of the housing crisis in Paignton, one user said they had been looking for a property to rent for seven months, and had viewed around 50 without success.

In North Devon, the local housing allowance for a two-bedroom property is £126.58. Of the six homes available for rent in the Barnstaple area, the cheapest was a maisonette at Sticklepath at £164 a week, followed by a flat at Fremington for £167. In the Bideford area, a two-bedroom house was on offer at £138 a week in Great Torrington, the cheapest in the whole of Devon, but still more than £10 a week above the local allowance.

The cheapest three-bedroom home in Devon was a bungalow at Highampton, near Beaworthy, close to the western edge of the Exeter valuation area. The cost at £160 a week put it below the £189.86 Exeter allowance. Renters a few miles west or north are entitled to a much lower amount for the same size of property, at £149.59 a week. That is the rate payable in Braunton, where the next cheapest three-bedroom home was on offer at £173.

Three bedroom homes at £185 a week were advertised at Hatherleigh and Okehampton, both in the Exeter allowance area and therefore just below the allowance limit. At Paignton, where the amount payable is the South Devon figure of £168, the same rent for a three-bedroom home made it unaffordable for claimants.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics shows that the cost of private home rental in the South West region grew by the fastest rate ever in the twelve months to June. Prices were 4.1 percent higher in June 2022 than in June 2021 – the largest year-on-year increase since comparative records began in 2006. The record-breaking hike in home rental came at the same time that workers across Britain saw their regular pay fall by 3 percent, according to separate figures from the ONS.

New 25 acre green space secured for East Devon residents

A new area of open green space for local people to enjoy next year has been acquired by East Devon District Council.

eastdevondistrc-newsroom.prgloo.com

This first new public space marks an important landmark in creating the Clyst Valley Regional Park, which stretches from National Trust Killerton to Clyst St Mary near the Exe Estuary. The new space is expected to open to the public in 2023, providing a wider choice for residents and visitors as an alternative to protected sites such as the East Devon Pebblebed Heaths and the Exe Estuary.

Roughly equivalent to the size of 9 rugby pitches, the land for the area has been paid for by money from developers, known as Section 106 payments and the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL), as part of their obligations when building much-needed homes for local people.  Commercial sensitivity around the sale means that the purchase price of the land is not disclosed.

Work to establish the new green space will now start. The first step is to seek planning permission for change of use of the land from agricultural to public open space.

Councillor Geoff Jung, East Devon District Council’s Portfolio Holder for Coast, Country and the Environment, said:

I am really pleased to see this open green space coming forward, which will form a part of East Devon’s Clyst Valley Regional Park. The new area will provide access into our beautiful countryside with proposals to create ponds, woodland and flower-rich meadows in a nature-rich, public green space.

The new space will be located near Broadclyst Station and is presently a series of meadows and hedgerows with a stream running through. There are some characterful old oak trees, and lovely views towards Pinhoe ridge.

Councillor Paul Arnott, East Devon District Council’s Leader and Portfolio Holder for Strategic Development, said:

This is one of the best schemes currently being run by East Devon District Council and when it is complete residents will gain quiet, sustainable travel routes from Cranbrook to Exeter without needing to get in a car at all.

We hope that local residents will appreciate a walk along the meandering stream through the middle of the site or just taking in the expansive new green space.

On behalf of East Devon District Council’s Ward Councillors for Broadclyst, Councillor Sarah Chamberlain, said:

We are really pleased to see this fantastic area of open green space come forward for the residents of Broadclyst Station and surrounding areas.

It is a great opportunity to use this area as the wonderful open countryside that it is. It enjoys many features including a very old tree that has gone almost silver in age, many fantastic views and even a stream.

We hope residents enjoy the space as a link to Exeter or just to relax and take a walk.

At a future meeting of East Devon District Council’s Cabinet there will be a discussion on the long term management of the site.

Wolf Hall author Dame Hilary Mantel dies aged 70

Budleigh loses a celebrated resident

Wolf Hall writer Dame Hilary Mantel has died “suddenly yet peacefully” surrounded by close family and friends aged 70, HarperCollins has announced. She was also famed for the follow-up novels Bring Up The Bodies and The Mirror and The Light.

Phil Norris www.devonlive.com 

In a statement, 4th Estate Books wrote: “We are heartbroken at the death of our beloved author, Dame Hilary Mantel, and our thoughts are with her friends and family, especially her husband, Gerald.

“This is a devastating loss and we can only be grateful she left us with such a magnificent body of work.”

Dame Hilary is best known for her epic The Wolf Hall Trilogy of which Diarmaid MacCulloch, Oxford theology professor and biographer of Thomas Cromwell said: “Hilary has reset the historical patterns through the way in which she’s reimagined the man.”

She won the Man Booker Prize twice, for Wolf Hall and its sequel, Bring Up the Bodies, which also won the 2012 Costa Book of the Year. The conclusion to her ground-breaking The Wolf Hall Trilogy,

The Mirror and the Light, was published in 2020 to huge critical acclaim, an instant number one fiction best-seller and longlisted for The Booker Prize 2020 and winner of the Walter Scott Prize for Historical Fiction, which she first won for Wolf Hall.

Bill Hamilton, Dame Hilary’s agent at literary agency A.M. Heath, said it had been the “greatest privilege” to work with her throughout her career. He said: “Her wit, stylistic daring, creative ambition and phenomenal historical insight mark her out as one of the greatest novelists of our time.

“She will be remembered for her enormous generosity to other budding writers, her capacity to electrify a live audience, and the huge array of her journalism and criticism, producing some of the finest commentary on issues and books.

“Emails from Hilary were sprinkled with bon mots and jokes as she observed the world with relish and pounced on the lazy or absurd and nailed cruelty and prejudice.

“There was always a slight aura of otherworldliness about her, as she saw and felt things us ordinary mortals missed, but when she perceived the need for confrontation she would fearlessly go into battle.

“And all of that against the backdrop of chronic health problems, which she dealt with so stoically. We will miss her immeasurably, but as a shining light for writers and readers she leaves an extraordinary legacy. Our thoughts go out to her beloved husband Gerald, family and friends.”

Truss and Kwarteng have made no effort to ensure the public finance numbers add up

As  the markets give the thumbs down with the pound plunging and the costs of government borrowing increasing……the Tories really look to be on course to crash the economy – Owl

Mini-Budget response –  Institute for Fiscal Studies

Paul Johnson, IFS Director, said

“Today, the Chancellor announced the biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years without even a semblance of an effort to make the public finance numbers add up. Instead, the plan seems to be to borrow large sums at increasingly expensive rates, put government debt on an unsustainable rising path, and hope that we get better growth. This marks such a dramatic change in the direction of economic policy-making that some of the longer-serving cabinet ministers might be worried about getting whiplash.

Mr Kwarteng has shown himself willing to gamble with fiscal sustainability in order to push through these huge tax cuts. He is willing to shrug off the risks of inflation, and to invite significantly higher interest rates. And he has avoided scrutiny by presenting a Budget in all but name without accompanying forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Injecting demand into this high-inflation economy leaves the government pulling in the exact opposite direction to the Bank of England, who are likely to raise rates in response. Early signs are that the markets – who will have to lend the money required to plug the gap in the government’s fiscal plans – aren’t impressed. This is worrying. Government borrowing is set on an upward path. It will reach its third-highest peak since the war, and remain at well over £100 billion, even once the energy support package is withdrawn.

And we heard nothing on public spending. It seems almost inconceivable that plans made last year, when inflation was expected to peak around 3%, will not need topping up at some point, unless the government is willing to allow a (further) deterioration in the range and quality of public services. Presumably this government would borrow for that also. 

Mr Kwarteng is not just gambling on a new strategy, he is betting the house.”

Go to ifs.org.uk to read the full article which includes penetrating analyses of each policy announced. Here are a couple of examples:

Income tax and National Insurance contributions

…. Only those with incomes over at least £155,000 will be net beneficiaries. They gain from the abolition of the additional rate, and are unaffected by freezing the personal allowance because their incomes are too high to be eligible for one anyway. This is quite a different picture from that before the mini-Budget, which implied larger tax rises across the board, but especially so for higher earners.

Taken together, today’s measures undo much of the tax rises introduced by Johnson and Sunak, and undo all of them for the highest-income households. The losses for middle- and higher-income households from previously introduced policies will be roughly halved by today’s measures. The richest tenth of households, who were set to lose around £3,500 a year (3%) on average in 2025-26 under Johnson and Sunak’s plans, will now gain around £700 a year (1%) on average.

Investment Zones

The government intends to create new Investment Zones getting special treatment for tax, regulation and local governance. The full details, and therefore the cost, have not yet been confirmed.

Tax sites within the new Investment Zones will offer a raft of temporary business tax reliefs similar to those available in Freeports, but even more generous and for ten years rather than five. These tax breaks are likely to increase economic activity in these areas, but some of that would otherwise have happened elsewhere in the UK.

This raises the question of why it is better to have lower taxes in some parts of the country than others – encouraging people and businesses to move to the favoured areas – rather than spending the same money on (smaller) tax cuts spread evenly across the country: for example, whether it is intended to help ‘level up’ deprived areas and, if so, whether the areas and policies chosen are appropriate for that objective.

Since the tax breaks are temporary, another question is how much businesses will find it worth making long-term investments that will tie them into the area for longer than that – and, correspondingly, how much the economic benefits to favoured areas will persist after the tax breaks expire.