Water bosses have been urged to put a system in place alerting beach users when the sewage is being pumped into the sea at Maer rocks.

Adam Manning www.exmouthjournal.co.uk

Currently, water quality for sewage and swimming quality is reviewed once a week by the Environment Agency and South West Water.

At the full council meeting on Monday (June 13), members of the Exmouth Escape (End Sewage Convoys and Pollution in Exmouth) group provided evidence to councillors about the amount of sewage being pumped into the sea at Exmouth, and the Exe Estuary. 

In response, councillors discussed inviting a representative of South West Water to a town council meeting to discuss what more can be done to limit the amount of pollution and sewage. 

Councillors said they were ‘extremely concerned’ about the increasing amount of sewage being imported into Exmouth by lorry, the consequential damage to roads and the resulting carbon footprint.

Cllr Olly Davey said: “I notice in one of the answers from South West Water to Simon Jupp that when they were queried on whether there was insufficient evidence, their response was there is, but not in the summer when the tourists arrive, well, that suggests to me it’s insufficient for several months of the year.

“That’s not an answer, so if you can’t cope when the tourists come 

“I agree South West Water have had pressure from EDDC (East Devon District Council), I don’t think they need pressure from us as well, they need pressure from absolutely everybody.

“They have been able to distribute eye-watering amounts of sewage and yet somehow they keep telling us they cant do this and that.

“I would like to make one amendment one bit of this, point three, I think we should write to the CEO and ask her to address a council meeting, not the council because you’re only giving yourself one bite of the cherry and also CEO or a representative because they may feel someone else may be more appropriate.”

Exmouth Town Council will now go back to South West Water and invite them to the next town council meeting to discuss.

 

But will it hurt? – Owl

“I will be giving my loyalty to somebody who has been given a third mandate by the party. This has happened. We need to move on.”

Questioned a second time if Johnson was fundamentally honest, she replied: “I think Boris thinks that he is an honest person. How I conduct myself is how I conduct myself, and I think you are trying to catch me out here.”

A vote for Helen Hurford is a vote for Boris – Owl

Peter Walker www.theguardian.com 

The Conservative candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has blamed the media for preventing the public from “moving on” from Partygate and twice declined to say that Boris Johnson was honest.

In an interview with the Guardian, Helen Hurford acknowledged the party faced a very tight battle to retain the previously ultra-safe seat and criticised what she called the media’s “persistent regurgitating of Partygate”. Asked if she believed Boris Johnson was fundamentally honest, Hurford twice refused to say.

Hurford, a former headteacher and a Honiton town councillor who now runs a beauty training business, is defending a 24,000-plus majority won in 2019 by the MP Neil Parish, who resigned in April after admitting he had watched pornography on his phone in the Commons chamber.

But the byelection on 23 June, which comes on the same day the Tories defend another seat in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, is widely seen as an ultra-close race between Hurford and the Liberal Democrat candidate, Richard Foord.

Internal polling by the Lib Dems of those intending to vote on the day of the byelection, released on Wednesday, put the Conservatives on 46% and the Lib Dems on 44%.

“I think it’s going to be very tight, and we can’t take anything for granted whatsoever,” Hurford said. “It could come down to very small numbers.”

Asked why a seat that has been Conservative-held in its various geographical variations for well over a century was now under threat, Hurford said issues raised by voters included the cost of living and “what happened with Neil Parish”.

She added: “And thirdly, the media’s persistent regurgitating of Partygate – even though there has been a line drawn in the sand, and there has been a report, it is constantly in the news, and people aren’t allowed to move on from it.”

“So, of course, that’s impacting. That is what I’m hearing on doorsteps as well – people are sick and tired of seeing it. They are sick and tired of hearing it. They want to talk about what’s important.”

Asked if this meant the media were in part to blame for the Tories’ struggles in the seat, Hurford said: “It’s not necessarily the media’s fault, but I think it’s time to stop. There needs to be a change of narrative about what is important.”

Hurford said she did understand voters’ worries about trust as a result of the Downing Street parties, adding: “All I can say is that the byelection is to pick a representative for Tiverton and Honiton, your next MP. As a former headteacher I am very trustworthy. When I say I’m going to do something, I do it. This is what is important – the person who is going to be representing you in Westminster.”

Asked if Johnson was equally trustworthy, she declined to answer directly, saying: “I will be giving my loyalty to somebody who has been given a third mandate by the party. This has happened. We need to move on.”

Questioned a second time if Johnson was fundamentally honest, she replied: “I think Boris thinks that he is an honest person. How I conduct myself is how I conduct myself, and I think you are trying to catch me out here.”

Asked, finally, if she was comfortable going into a parliamentary party led by Johnson, she replied: “I’m comfortable representing Tiverton and Honiton as their MP with the Conservatives, with a prime minister who has once again, for the third time, been shown support by the majority of the party. That is what I will be going for. Everything else has happened. I’m looking forwards to the future.

“I don’t want to play party politics. I don’t want to be drawn into things that have happened. I want to be talking about what I can deliver for Tiverton and Honiton.”

Tories have held Tiverton & Honiton forever.

Liberal Democrat candidate Richard Foord has set out his stall ahead of next week’s Tiverton and Honiton by-election, claiming it’s “time for change.”

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

The 44-year-old is bidding to end Conservative domination of the seat since it was created in 1997 but faces having to overturn a majority of more than 24,000 secured by disgraced former MP Neil Parish in 2019.

Both parties are campaigning hard in Devon, where defeat for the government on 23 June would be seen as a big blow to Boris Johnson’s leadership. No other party has represented this area at Westminster – both before and after boundary changes – since 1924.

Mr Foord, a former army major who now works for Oxford University from his home in Mid Devon, says such a single party domination can “breed apathy.”

“Honestly the feedback I’m getting is [that this is] a by-election and is about choosing our MP rather than necessarily choosing the government, we can do differently this time,” he said.

“That’s the message that I’m getting back, and I would just reinforce the point that, yes, we’ve been neglected and taken for granted for so long that it is indeed time for change.”

The Lib Dems point to high ambulance waiting times, problems with funding a new town centre relief road in Cullompton and the lack of a new high school in Tiverton as just a few examples.

The Conservatives reject claims about underfunding, which have also been made by Labour candidate Liz Pole. It says their government is “delivering for people in Tiverton and Honiton and across the whole south west.”

In addition to cash towards transport improvements, the party claims £77 million has been spent supporting people in Devon during covid, protecting 17,000 jobs in Tiverton and Honiton through the furlough scheme and by providing loans to local businesses.

Tory candidate Helen Hurford, who has also backed the new relief road and upgraded high school, last week said she was only one who could work directly with the government and was “focused solely on delivering” for the area.

But Mr Foord, speaking in Honiton, suggests it’s time for a shake-up: “I don’t think that we have seen very much interest paid by the government in our area while we’ve consistently returned Conservative politicians to parliament.

“And this this kind of complacency is apparent when you knock on doors around here. People say to you, ‘well, it’s fantastic that you’ve called because we haven’t had a Conservative politician knock on our door for decades.’”

He is aiming to become the first Lib Dem MP in Devon since Sarah Wollaston, who defected from the Tories in 2019 to the short-lived Change UK and subsequently the Lib Dems.

Mr Foord’s campaign is focussing on action to tackle the cost of living, including a VAT cut from 20 to 17.5 per cent, cutting waiting times for GPs and ambulances and getting a ‘fairer deal’ for Devon farmers.

Eight candidates – including from each of the main parties – are vying for the Tiverton and Honiton seat:

• Jordan Donoghue-Morgan – Heritage Party
• Andy Foan – Reform UK
• Richard Foord – Liberal Democrats
• Helen Hurford – Conservative
• Liz Pole – Labour
• Frankie Rufolo – The For Britain Movement
• Ben Walker – UK Independence Party
• Gill Westcott – Green Party

Lord Geidt’s resignation letter and the Prime Minister’s reply were published yesterday. Does this provide the clarity we all hoped for? – Owl

Here is an extract from Paul Waugh’s view from inews:

……Some Tory MPs may view Geidt as the mouse that finally roared. But others will see his letter as a squeak, and allow the PM to carry on regardless.

Timing in politics is also everything. If Geidt had quit in the wake of the full Sue Gray report, it would have had much more impact on Tory MPs and their confidence vote.

He ends up seeming more furious about trade tariffs than about Partygate itself. Why didn’t he say Covid rule-breaking had put him in “an odious position”? Why hadn’t the PM’s misleading Parliament “made a mockery” of the principles of public life?

Appearing to expend more anger about obscure trade rules (for which the Government will get popular support) than lockdown law-breaking only confirmed the image of a man who has spent so long in the thicket of the Establishment that he can’t see the wood for the trees. After his humiliation by MPs, Geidt may have been looking for any excuse to quit, but this excuse just wasn’t that great.

In the end, his resignation seemed to be more about protecting his own damaged reputation than doing anything to seriously question that of the PM’s. That’s why Johnson may well escape the opprobrium once more.

And the final insult was yet to come. No.10 hinted the independent ministerial adviser may not even be replaced and the role handed to a civil servant. Perhaps the most damning indictment of Geidt’s record would be if no one notices he’s actually gone.

“Incentivising contracts”? What happened to the concept of “professionalism”? – Owl

SAJID Javid is eyeing up major changes to GP contracts to get more doctors to see patients face to face.

Kate Ferguson www.thesun.co.uk

He wants to end the shameful postcode lottery which leaves millions of Brits unable to get an appointment not on Zoom.

Vast parts of the country have a massive shortage of full-time GPs – fuelling the problem.

The Health Secretary is considering a range of reforms to try to end the scandal.

One option is to change GP contracts so they are “incentivised” to go from working part time to full time.

While they could also be offered lucrative bungs to move to left-behind areas.

And a big focus will also be put on getting GPs to offer more face to face appointments.

A Government source said the aim is to give patients “more choice” so elderly patients are not forced to go online when they really want to physically see a doctor.

But the number of face to face appointments “is expected to increase”.

Whitehall insiders insisted that changing GP contracts is just one of the options being looked at.

With No10 already bracing for a “summer of discontent” from militant rail unions, they do not want to have a row with doctors unions too.

So they are expected to try to lure GPs into increasing their hours and being more flexible rather than ordering them to.

(And their zealous local Tory acolytes)

Lest we forget – Owl

From a correspondent:

Yet another report has revealed that patients are suffering because of delays in ambulances being able to discharge them into hospital beds. This means long delays when awaiting an ambulance: the very sick and injured, in category two, now have to wait for an average of more than 40 minutes. The target is 18 minutes. Quite simply, there are too few available beds and one reason for this is that at least 10 per cent of patients are “bed blocking”. They do not have access to “care packages” so cannot leave hospital. In many instances, the percentage is higher and in Gloucestershire  it is 29 per cent. With many others in East Devon,  I campaigned vigorously to defeat the government’s plan to remove dozens of beds in local and modern community hospitals. We failed: the consequences are painfully evident. Doubtless, this grim situation will be blamed on Covid but England has cut the total number of NHS beds from nearly 300,000 in 1987 to 141,000 in 2019, despite an increase in population from 47.3 million to 56.6 million with the elderly accounting for a higher share. The UK has fewer beds per thousand of population than most comparable countries in Western Europe. Many of us, even before Covid, warned that this grim situation could occur because of the government’s policy but we were ignored and damaging closures, especially in East Devon, were implemented.  

What use does Boris Johnson have for an ethics adviser anyway? – Owl

His demeanour and delivery screamed exasperation, even if his words were carefully chosen. When Lord Geidt appeared before a parliamentary committee on Tuesday, for the best part of two hours, he didn’t look like a man in love with his job.

By Chris Mason Political editor, BBC News www.bbc.co.uk

Just over 24 hours later, in a written statement of few words and even less detail, came confirmation that he really didn’t.

He was resigning, the second such ethics adviser to the prime minister to walk in the last eighteen months. It appears he had concluded his position was untenable, enough was enough.

It also appears there are more details he is privy to about what has been going on than are currently known about more widely.

So what do we know about what happened in the last few days?

I’m told that on Monday, Lord Geidt met the prime minister and offered to serve in the job for another six months.

He was also asked by Boris Johnson to advise on a commercial decision the government is contemplating – and whether this would breach any existing commitments and so not be in line with the ministerial code.

We don’t know the details of this yet, nor if this request contributed to his resignation, but the specific timing of his departure has left No10 baffled, given his commitment to stay.

On Wednesday evening, Lord Geidt phoned the prime minister’s principal private secretary to tell him he was resigning. Mr Johnson was informed of the decision at about 18:30 BST, shortly after finishing a phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.

But while the particular timing has surprised some in Downing Street, Lord Geidt’s discomfort in the job has been evident for a while.

Just last month he had said in a report that it was a legitimate question to ask if Boris Johnson had breached the ministerial code by breaking Covid laws.

But, as Lord Geidt put it, the code’s “author and guardian” is Mr Johnson. The prime minister hadn’t sought an investigation from Lord Geidt into whether he had, and was of the view that he hadn’t.

As Lord Geidt put it: “I have attempted to avoid the independent adviser offering advice to a prime minister about a prime minister’s obligations under his own ministerial code.

“If a prime minister’s judgement is that there is nothing to investigate or no case to answer, he would be bound to reject any such advice, thus forcing the resignation of the independent adviser. Such a circular process could only risk placing the ministerial code in a place of ridicule.”

Lord Geidt also spelled out in the report that he didn’t like the terms of his job – “the prevailing arrangements still remained insufficiently independent to be able to command the confidence of the public” as he put it.

No 10 would point out some of those arrangements have since changed. But it is also true that so too had new guidelines meaning ministers wouldn’t get sacked for “minor” breaches of the ministerial code.

The truth is we don’t yet know definitively why Lord Geidt resigned, as his resignation letter has not been published – which itself is unconventional.

The prime minister is expected to write back to Lord Geidt on Thursday morning, and that reply may well be made public.

What we do know is it wasn’t just Partygate that caused headaches: a row about the renovation of the prime minister’s flat led Lord Geidt to rebuke Boris Johnson for showing “insufficient” respect for his role.

And remember, too, Lord Geidt’s predecessor resigned as well. Sir Alex Allan walked out in November 2020 after concluding the Home Secretary Priti Patel had breached the ministerial code, which conventionally results in a resignation or sacking. And yet Ms Patel didn’t leave and the prime minister didn’t sack her.

So twice in a year-and-a-half, the person appointed to oversee ethics and conduct in Mr Johnson’s government has given up.

Just as Mr Johnson had managed to shift the political conversation away from his behaviour and on to policy, a swirl of headlines about this appears.

And along with the headlines, comes a vacancy in government. I walked down Whitehall earlier on; I can’t say I spotted a queue of people lining up to take the job on.

The people of Whitby have voted overwhelmingly to limit the sale of second homes in the Yorkshire seaside town, making it the latest tourist hotspot to turn the tide on holidaymakers pricing out local people.

Tom Ball www.thetimes.co.uk 

A parish poll held on Monday night asked locals if they wanted new [homes] to be reserved for locals, to which 93 per cent voted in favour.

Of the 2,228 ballots cast, 157 voted against and 18 ballots were rejected.

One in five properties in the town where Bram Stoker’s Dracula is set, are second homes or holiday lets, according to Scarborough borough council.

That proportion has more than doubled in the past two decades.

People say that the rise in second-home ownership has meant that locals cannot afford to buy in their home town.

Last year house prices rose by 17 per cent and the average asking price is £254,218, according to Rightmove.

This is the second highest price increase of any coastal town, beaten only by Padstow in Cornwall where they jumped 20 per cent.

Anthony George, 25, said that the vote was an expression of “pent-up frustration” against a situation that had led to many young people having to leave Whitby.

“If you want to buy a house these days in Whitby, on a Whitby salary, good luck to you,” said George, an apprentice chef. The average salary in the town is £18,900.

“As it stands, I’m going to have to rent for the rest of my life if I want to stay, or move 20 miles inland.”

Whitby attracts more than 150,000 visitors each year, many of whom come to visit the ruins of the Benedictine abbey above the town.

The poll is the latest sign of unrest in tourist hotspots as local families struggle to match the prices paid by those wanting second homes by the sea.

Residents of St Ives, Fowey and Mevagissey – all in Cornwall – have previously voted to limit sales of new builds to permanent residents.

Last week Tim Farron, MP for South Lakes, urged the government to consider giving local authorities the power to limit second home ownership.

During a debate in parliament on the Levelling Up Bill, Farron said that excessive second home ownership had led to the prospect of buying or even renting a house becoming a “pipe dream” for people in rural areas such as his constituency in Cumbria.

The Whitby poll, which had a turnout of 24 per cent, is not legally binding but organisers hope it will influence planning decisions.

Linda Wild, the mayor of Whitby, called on the borough council and the government to amend planning regulations to make it possible to protect local housing for primary residence.

“We need a ‘use class’ which applies to holiday lets,” she said. “Then the planners can manage that change of use. We also need to tax second homes and holiday homes more effectively through council tax and business rates to reflect the impact they have on local people.

“Whitby is not unique in this predicament and local people want their voice heard by government alongside people from Cornwall, North Norfolk, Northumberland and the Lakes. We absolutely need government to give local people the power to keep holiday resort communities sustainable.”

A spokesman for Scarborough borough council said: “The outcome of the poll is no more and no less than an expression of the views of the electorate of the parish who have voted in the poll and is not binding on any organisation.”

The Liberal Democrats plan to flood Tiverton and Honiton with activists after internal polling suggested the party was only marginally trailing the Conservatives before next week’s byelection in the Devon constituency.

Peter Walker www.theguardian.com 

A sample carried out by the party, based on tens of thousands of voter contacts, suggested that of people intending to vote on the day of the byelection, the Conservatives had 46% support and the Lib Dems 44%.

The party said it had a four-point deficit at the same point before December’s byelection in North Shropshire, which it won.

Victory for the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton requires overturning a Conservative majority of 24,239, which the party says would be the biggest such margin ever overcome in a byelection, although other races have seen bigger swings in percentage terms.

If the polling figures are accurate they suggest that an unspoken accord between the Lib Dems and Labour to focus resources on one each of the two byelections taking place next Thursday could result in a double defeat for Boris Johnson.

Labour has concentrated efforts in Wakefield, where it appears to be well ahead. The Lib Dem figures suggest support for Labour in Tiverton and Honiton, where it has tried less hard, has shrunk to 6%.

Labour finished ahead of the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton in 2019, and activists vigorously dispute the idea they are badly lagging there this time, saying recent council seat gains indicate they will again outperform the Lib Dems.

While the Lib Dems have triumphed in two previously strongly Tory seats in the last year, starting with a byelection win in Chesham and Amersham, party officials put their chances in the Devon seat at no better than 50-50.

The Conservatives have campaigned hard in Tiverton and Honiton, with Johnson among a series of senior figures to visit. Lib Dem canvassers report worries that some former Tory voters, while disaffected over issues such as Downing Street parties and complaints that the government has neglected the area, could simply stay at home rather than transfer their support.

The Lib Dems have issued a call for MPs, peers and activists to head to the constituency immediately to help with canvassing, with officials saying travel plans need to be made because of next week’s national rail strikes.

A party source said: “The momentum is definitely with the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton, but it is not by any means over the line. If we get an army of activists knocking on doors this weekend, we can do it. Whatever happens it’s going to be a very close-run thing.”

The byelection was prompted by the resignation of Neil Parish, the Tory MP since 2010, after he admitted watching pornography on his phone in the Commons.

The vote in Wakefield is taking place after Imran Ahmad Khan, who took the previously Labour seat for the Conservatives in 2019, resigned after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.

Professor Jim Hall, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks and former Director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, said: “We need to have honest conversations with coastal communities that it will simply not be possible to protect every house and business from sea level rise.

Paul Jones www.sidmouthherald.co.uk 

Nearly 200,000 homes are at risk of being abandoned by the 2050s – and East Devon is on the list of affected areas, according to new research.

The district – which includes Sidmouth, Exmouth, Lyme Regis and Seaton – features in the top 20 places which would be hardest hit should water levels rise by around 35cm in the next 28 years, as forecasts warn.

According to new research published in the peer-reviewed journal Oceans and Coastal Management, sea level rises caused by climate change are putting nearly 200,000 English properties at risk of being abandoned by the 2050s.

The study was led by Paul Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks who works with the Tyndall Centre at University of East Anglia and advises the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

It concluded mean sea levels around England will be around 35cm higher by 2050 than their historical level and will continue to rise as increasing global temperatures, due to greenhouse gas emissions, melts glaciers and ice caps and causes ocean waters to expand as they warm.

In addition, foreshores are at risk of being eroded, which can further deepen the water at the coast leading to larger waves reaching the shore. 

The combination of sea-level rise and larger waves will greatly increase the number of properties at risk of flooding.

Investment in improved sea walls and other defences will protect many of the properties at risk, but this will not be affordable or possible everywhere. 

For the first time, the new study calculates how many English properties will be threatened with coastal flooding but where the costs of improving defences may be too high or technically impossible for the government to continue to protect communities, given current funding regimes.

The researchers found that, by the 2050s, 120,000-160,000 properties along the English coast are at risk of relocation due to sea level rise, in addition to 30-35,000 properties that had already been identified as at risk from sea level rise. 

This means the number of properties at risk is five times higher than suggested within current shoreline planning documents, and many communities that face an uncertain future haven’t yet been identified. 

In 2018, the CCC identified 100,000 properties that would be at risk from sliding into the sea due to coastal erosion – meaning around 300,000 properties are at risk from sea level rise and coastal erosion. 

This analysis found that around 30% of local authority assessments, known as Shoreline Management Plans, which recommend ‘Hold-the-Line’ in the longer term – implying that sea defences will be built and maintained along the shoreline – may be unrealistic as sea levels rise due to cost or feasibility constraints, covering 1,700km of the English coast. 

When will homes start to be lost?

In March 2020, 41% of mortgages had terms longer than 25 years and the median first-time buyer mortgage now lasts for 30 years. 

Many people may be buying houses or paying off mortgages on properties which will not be habitable or will be within a few years of being abandoned by the end of the mortgage term. 

Most people who are likely to be in this situation will be unaware of it and there is currently no government scheme to help them. 

Which local authorities have the most properties at risk? 

A total of 20 local authorities have 2,000 or more (some with tens of thousands) at risk of being lost to sea level rise including (ranked in order from most numbers of properties to fewest): 

1. North Somerset

2. Sedgemoor

3. Eastbourne

4. Wyre

5. North East Lincolnshire

6. Warrington

7. Swale

8. Dover

9. Portsmouth

10. Tendring

11. Ipswich

12. Gloucester

13. Bristol City

14. Maldon

15. Adur

16. Cornwall

17. East Devon

18. East Lindsey

19. East Suffolk

20. West Lancashire

Decisions on precisely which, and how many, of these properties and communities will have to move will depend on government policy, the research concluded.

Since sea level rise responds relatively slowly to changes in global temperatures these risks in the 2050s are now almost inevitable, even if emissions are now cut rapidly, it said.

But faster emission cuts will greatly reduce the amount of sea level rise later this century and beyond.

Lead author Mr Sayers said: “Significant sea level rise is now inevitable. For many of our larger cities at the coast protection will continue to be provided, but for some coastal communities this may not be possible.  

“We need a serious national debate about the scale of the threat to these communities and what represents a fair and sustainable response, including how to help people to relocate.”

How can we transition to stop this?

The study argues that England faces “a transformational challenge” but that there is a “lack of clarity as to how this transition will be made, particularly when it would impact communities”. 

A new round of updates to local authority plans, which is happening now, is an opportunity to promote a more open discourse including where it is necessary to discuss relocation, according to the study. 

It warns that postponing hard choices has consequences including “further (inappropriate) development [on flood plains]” or unfairly propagating “the belief that protection will continue in the long term”. 

The study assessed a number of factors to determine the likely pressure for relocation including the type of settlement and landscape, the existing local authority plan, the economic case for continuing to protect properties, and shoreline vulnerability. 

Large towns and cities are assumed to warrant Hold-the-Line protection while small communities are more vulnerable. 

The economic case was assessed on a cost-benefit analysis using a lower cost-benefit ratio than is usually used to calculate whether projects should attract central government support, meaning the study potentially underestimates the number of properties at risk. 

The combination of sea level rise and seabed erosion means that it will not be technically feasible to defend some areas, regardless of the question of cost, the report adds. 

The types of areas most at risk from sea level rise

They include: 

Single communities: For example, Fairbourne in Wales, which is already due to be abandoned to sea level rise.

These communities contain a large number of properties (Fairbourne has a population of 700 people) but the complexity of the shoreline and floodplain means that the cost of maintaining defences is so large that it can’t be justified. 

Communities containing dispersed clusters of properties on a long floodplain: For example, the Somerset Levels, East coast and North West.

A narrow floodplain, with properties on, constrained between the shoreline and raising ground, e.g. Dawlish (Dawlish is being protected but other places like this may not be so lucky) – often roads and railways run along these areas 

Small quay and coastal harbours communities: For example, quays across Cornwall – low lying properties squeezed between a rising ground and harbour quay walls 

Professor Jim Hall, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks and former Director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, said: “We need to have honest conversations with coastal communities that it will simply not be possible to protect every house and business from sea level rise.

“These changes are coming sooner than we might think and we need to plan now for how we can adjust, including a nationwide strategic approach to deciding how to manage the coast sustainably in the future.”

The Conservative Party candidate in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election has been accused of “trying to erase” Boris Johnson from her campaign because he is seen as “toxic” to her hopes of retaining the traditionally safe Tory seat.

Tory candidate in Tiverton by-election accused of ‘trying to erase’ meeting with Boris Johnson

By David Parsley inews.co.uk 

Mr Johnson visited the constituency last Friday to support his candidate Helen Hurford just hours after Chancellor Rishi Sunak had been in Devon to back her.

However, while the former headteacher turned beauty salon owner published a video of herself with Mr Sunak, she has not publicised the visit of the Prime Minister on any of her campaign social media sites or flyers.

Residents and rivals claim she sees Mr Johnson as a vote loser following Partygate and the parliamentary investigation into whether he lied over the lockdown-breaking activities of Downing Street during the Covid-19 crisis.

Following last week’s victory for the Prime Minister in the confidence vote by MPs, Ms Hurford, who is defending a Tory majority of more than 24,000, told i she would have supported Mr Johnson had she already been an MP.

She said: “If I was an MP at that time, I would have voted in favour of Boris because we need a leader that makes the big calls. He’s made the right decisions on those big calls.”

Last Saturday, Ms Hurford added that she considered Mr Johnson as “an asset” to her campaign, and that she would post a picture with him on her campaign sites in the coming days.

She said: “Yeah, it will go on. Perhaps Rishi may have felt that he would have been overshadowed.”

However, four days on since Ms Hurford told i that she would promote the Prime Minister’s support for her, she has failed to do so.

Instead, Ms Hurford has posted pictures of a visit by Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove on Saturday, and one from employment minister Mims Davies on Monday.

As well as Mr Sunak, she has also posted pictures and videos of herself with the Tory party’s co-chairman Oliver Dowden, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, and tourism minister Nigel Huddleston.

She is yet to promote last week’s visit of the Prime Minister in her campaign literature.

The official Twitter account for Tiverton and Honiton Conservative Party features pictures of Mr Gove, Mr Dowden and Mr Raab, but has avoided making any reference to the Prime Minister’s visit to the constituency so far. Ms Hurford does not have a Twitter account.

Ms Hurford’s main opponent claimed her campaign was avoiding any mention of Mr Johnson as he was a “vote loser on the doorsteps”.

Liberal Democrat candidate Richard Foord said: “There’s clearly been some hand-wringing in the local Conservative campaign about how to deploy Boris Johnson. Their conclusion was not at all, but they had no choice to but to accept the invitation that the Prime Minister made to himself to visit her in the constituency.

“I think he rather forced himself upon them. This is how I would read it. They’re trying to erase him from their campaign.”

Mark Field, a lifelong Conservative voter in Axminster, said he would not be voting for the Tories again until Mr Johnson was replaced as leader of the party.

“I didn’t even know he’d been in the constituency,” he said. “They snuck him in and out under our noses, didn’t they. And no wonder, he’d only get booed if he walked through Axminster. Even by many of us who voted for us last time. No wonder she’s hiding the fact that she met him. He’s toxic to her campaign.”

Ahead of Mr Johnson photo opportunity with Ms Hurford, he received a mixture of cheers and boos during a surprise visit to the Royal Cornwall Show.

Ms Hurford has been approached for comment.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Tory MP Neil Parish after he admitted watching porn in the House of Commons on his mobile phone.

“Overall, build cost inflation has been offset by house price gains and we expect this trend to continue.”

The average selling price of a Bellway home is expected to exceed £305,000 this year.

What a surprise – Owl

Julia Kollewe www.theguardian.com 

Bellway and Crest Nicholson, two of Britain’s biggest housebuilders, have said demand for new houses continues to outstrip supply, pushing up prices and offsetting the rising cost of building materials and energy.

Bellway posted strong sales for the four months from 1 February to 5 June, when house reservations averaged 253 a week, compared with 239 in the same period last year.

The company expects to complete more than 11,110 homes in the year to the end of July, a 10% rise from last year. Material shortages are starting to ease, although bottlenecks remain at regional level, affecting bricks, blocks and roof tiles in particular.

Jason Honeyman, the Bellway chief executive, said: “Demand is strong, reservations are ahead of last year and our order book remains substantial.

“Overall, build cost inflation has been offset by house price gains and we expect this trend to continue.”

The average selling price of a Bellway home is expected to exceed £305,000 this year.

There are some signs that the housing market is starting to cool amid the worsening cost of living crisis. Halifax, one of the UK’s biggest mortgage lenders, last week reported that annual house price growth had slowed but remained in double digits.

Crest Nicholson said it built 1,096 homes in the six months to 30 April, up nearly 8% from the same period last year. It made an adjusted profit before tax of £52.5m, up from £36.1m, and raised its full-year forecast to between £135m and £140m.

Peter Truscott, the Crest chief executive, said: “No one in the construction sector is immune from the current impacts of input cost inflation. However, we are managing to successfully offset this with sales price inflation in a market with strong demand and relatively poor levels of supply. Finally, the tapering off of Help to Buy, which is due to end in April 2023, has had no measurable impact on our sales rate to date.”

He said Crest’s developments were often in areas that are benefiting from the rise in home working since the Covid-19 pandemic. “We continue to see this rationale being cited by customers in their reasons for moving home,” he added. The firm is opening three new divisions, the first two in Yorkshire and East Anglia.

Bellway said the government’s help-to-buy scheme was used by customers in 16% of house purchases, compared with 22% last year and 39% in 2020. It is mostly being used for apartments in and around London, but Bellway has been building fewer apartment blocks in recent years. At the same time, it said the availability of higher loan-to-value mortgage loans was “gradually improving”, allowing people to buy with smaller deposits.

More than 35 homebuilders agreed in April to pay £2bn towards fixing unsafe cladding on high-rise buildings in England after the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire, but a further £3bn is needed. Michael Gove, the housing secretary, said the further £3bn would be raised by an extension to the building safety levy, forcing industry to pay for the remedial work on buildings where the developer cannot be traced or forced to pay up.

Bellway said it had set aside £187m since 2017 to cover cladding work to apartment buildings more than 11 metres in height, and in April it pledged to cover buildings constructed since April 1992, which will cost a further £300m. It has appointed a managing director to lead its new building safety division to oversee the work.

Crest took a £48m charge related to cladding work on buildings taller than 18 metres last October, and said it recognised the “significant distress caused to residents”. When it signed the pledge in April to carry out work on all buildings more than 11m tall, it took a further £105m charge. With regards to fixing “orphaned” tower blocks, Crest said it would not pay towards any buildings it had not constructed.

On the news round:

” … Johnson was dialling in from a farm just over the Devon border, where he was campaigning and simultaneously hiding over the weekend in the run-up to a by-election in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, which he looks set to lose after one of his MPs was caught watching porn in the House of Commons chamber. 

If he loses that, it could be the end of him, but it’s not up to us. Only the Tory party gets to decide when the bottom of the barrel can be scraped no further, and you wouldn’t like to bet how far down the U-bend they’re prepared to follow their leader. …”

www.independent.co.uk  (extract)

A couple of contrasting articles published in the past few days caught Owl’s eye:

Tory gloom deepens as Lib Dem poll rating spikes before crucial Tiverton and Honiton by-election

www.dailymail.co.uk (extract)

….Tory gloom around losing the upcoming Tiverton and Honiton by-election next week will have deepened after a new poll showed support for the Liberal Democrats spiking.

With nine days to go until voters head to the polls in the Devon constituency, there is a growing expectation that the Conservatives will lose a seat they have held ever since it was created in 1997.

The Lib Dems are eyeing a hat-trick of by-election victories after their recent successes in Amersham and Chesham, and North Shropshire.

Their hopes will have been boosted by a Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey, which revealed the Lib Dems have climbed to 15 per cent support in a poll of national voting intention.

This is two percentage points higher than last week’s poll.

A downbeat Conservative source told MailOnline that punters shouldn’t be betting against bookies, who have installed the Lib Dems as favourites in Tiverton and Honiton.

Meanwhile, a separate poll revealed that more than two in five (43 per cent) of rural Conservative voters – such as those found in the Devon constituency – thought the party took rural communities for granted…

….Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: ‘This Conservative Government simply doesn’t care about rural parts of the country.

‘Conservative MPs and candidates ignore these communities at their peril.

‘There is a growing revolt at a Conservative Party which allows rural health services to be cut to the bone and fails to save people from the cost of living crisis.

‘Rural areas are being hardest hit by this financial crisis as petrol prices spiral and no help is given for those relying on heating oil.’

Are the Lib Dems in danger of being over-hyped (again)? – UK in a changing Europe

Chris Butler ukandeu.ac.uk Lecturer in Politics at the University of Manchester and a former Campaigns Staffer for the Liberal Democrats between 2007 and 2015. (extract)

The Liberal Democrats’ short betting odds in Tiverton and Honiton seem to be based on two heuristics. Firstly, that the Liberal Democrats are traditionally strong in South West England. Second, that the Lib Dems are proving to be electorally successful in rural areas as evidenced by their sensational by-election victory in North Shropshire last year.

Let’s deal with these two points in turn. Whilst the South West of England was indeed a strong area for the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2010, since nailing their flag to the mast over Brexit the basis of Liberal Democrat support has migrated to affluent well-educated areas in the Home Counties.

In Cornwall, where the Liberal Democrats won all six Parliamentary seats in 2005, the party now holds just 13 of 87 seats on the unitary authority and only came second in two of the parliamentary seats in 2019.

Of course, last autumn’s sensational victory in North Shropshire showed that the party did have the potential to win in leave-voting Leave areas and it is this that has primarily led to the expectation of Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton and Honiton.

The potential for Conservative defeat is aided by the tacit electoral alliance of Labour and the Liberal Democrats acting as a pincer movement on the governing party with the former focusing on Wakefield and the latter on the Devon seat. Issues over payments to farmers and ambulance waiting times provide fruitful issues for the Liberal Democrats to campaign on.

But the party’s success in North Shropshire was also helped by the Conservatives’ complacency. They clearly under-estimated the Liberal Democrats’ potential to win in rural leave-voting areas and lazily selected a ‘lawyer from Birmingham’; a mistake they haven’t repeated this time around….

……..To win in Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats would require a 22.8% swing, smaller than what they achieved in last year’s by-elections in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire but still a tall order. There is a possibility that if the Liberal Democrats pull off an enormous swing, but one not quite enough to win, this will change the narrative for Boris Johnson, given how much Conservative defeat in Tiverton & Honiton is assumed by commentators……

…..The perennial problem for the Liberal Democrats in trying to gain multiple parliamentary seats at an election is simply one of capacity. Unlike the larger parties, Liberal Democrat parliamentary success relies disproportionately on a strong local ground campaign to overcome problems of credibility.

To encourage tactical and switch voting Liberal Democrats need to convince voters that they can win in their area and they achieve this through a strong poster campaign, personal contact with voters and an emphasis on the local context. This requires boots on the ground and is much more difficult to scale up than the Conservatives’ usual tactic of national direct mail and social media advertising.

Focusing on the local context also means that the party’s most effective messages are covered by the more restrictive constituency spending limits. Whereas parties such as the Conservatives who wish to focus on a national message are able to take advantage of the far more generous national campaign spending limit……

Owl reported the original story, East Devon Council bust up at top, and two comments: a correspondent on bust up at top and bust up at top the context speaks volumes. 

Now Paul Arnott responds, within the limits imposed by the need, under “Part B” confidentiality, to protect a former employee.

This raises the questions again about who broke confidentiality and leaked the original story, and why? – Owl

East Devon leader responds to critical report

Radio Exe News www.radioexe.co.uk 

East Devon District Council’s leader has responded to criticisms in a Radio Exe article, based on an independent report commissioned by the council about the circumstances relating to the redundancy of a member of staff.

Cllr Paul Arnott, who leads the council as part of the Democratic Alliance, last week joined the Liberal Democrats nationally in order to throw his support behind its candidate for the Tiverton & Honiton by-election Richard Foord.

The report was highly critical of issues which arose after the current administration took over from the Conservatives. As part of its conclusions, it said” It cannot be stated strongly enough the damage that has been done to the council, its reputation, its officers and members and its ability to reach its potential.”

Mr Arnott has politely asked to respond to the content of Radio Exe’s article, and we are publishing his comments in full here.

He writes: “Because this leaked report was made to a Part B meeting [the confidential part of a council meeting] – in order to protect the former employee – there is a limit to what I am able to state. However, I am able to correct with thanks to the editor that which was stated in the article which I have already reported at Council in Part B.

“First, this is framed as a dispute between me as the leader and the CEO. This is simply wrong.

“At every meeting discussing the matter I had four other senior councillors with me, the majority of whom did not consider this was a redundancy matter after a number of meetings. Unfortunately, the report claims to have interviewed one of the three councillors who were also statutory consultees and simply the authors did not do so.

“I have no doubt that if they had they would have not written the report as they have.

“Second, it is said that when the new administration came in back in May 2020 we declined Local Government Association (LGA) advice. The opposite is the case. With other senior councillors I had many meetings with the most senior possible LGA officers both before this matter, during it, and after it.

“Third, the report offers a view, paradoxically, that my involving the UK’s most senior LGA employment officer in attempting to settle this matter was “inappropriate”. This is a subjective view which I do not accept.

“Fourthly, as to any costs to the council, I am not personally responsible for a penny of that. I did not choose or commission legal advice taken by officers, and any costs of the report were agreed by full council cross-party.

“Finally, some concerns are raised about the working relationship of me as the leader and the CEO. It is very common when such a seismic political change as the Conservatives losing power at EDDC for the first time in 45 years for this relationship to require careful nurturing.

“This work has been fully done, ironically with the good offices of the LGA, and the people and members of East Devon can be assured that the council is firing on all cylinders.”

According to reports in today’s Western Morning News:

The Prime Minister says he is “confident” in the Conservative candidate contesting the forthcoming by-election in Tiverton & Honiton.

Speaking on a visit to Cornwall yesterday to launch the Government’s new food strategy, Boris Johnson said he had been in the Devon constituency over recent days and “attracted a good deal of support” while visiting Seaton on the coast.

A by-election is being held on June 23, following the resignation of Conservative MP Neil Parish, who admitted watching pornography in the House of Commons.

The constituency has been Tory since it was created in 1997 and in the 2019 general election Mr Parish won the seat by 24,000 votes over second placed Labour, with the Liberal Democrats nearly 3,000 votes further back.

However, the Lib Dems have billed themselves as the “real challengers” in the by-election, while polls suggest Labour could take back the Wakefield seat in Yorkshire from the Conservatives in another by-election being held on the same day.

Asked by the WMN whether he was anxious about the possible outcome of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election, Mr Johnson said: “It takes an awful lot to make me anxious about anything.

“We are very confident that we have a fantastic local candidate in Helen Hurford, and she would be a wonderful MP for Tiverton & Honiton. I was there all weekend and it struck me there was a very positive mood.”

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