Lockdowns and face masks ‘unequivocally’ cut spread of Covid, report finds

Measures taken during the Covid pandemic such as social distancing and wearing face masks “unequivocally” reduced the spread of infections, a report has found.

www.theguardian.com 

Experts looked at the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – not drugs or vaccines – when applied in packages that combine a number of measures that complement one another.

The Royal Society report, called Covid-19: examining the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, reviewed the evidence gathered during the pandemic for six groups of NPIs and their effectiveness in reducing transmission.

These included masks and face coverings, social distancing and lockdowns, test, trace and isolate, travel restrictions and controls across international borders, environmental controls, and communications.

When assessed individually, there was positive – if limited – evidence of transmission reduction from many of the NPIs used in the pandemic, the review found. However, evidence of a positive effect was clear when countries used combinations of NPIs.

Additionally, evidence showed NPIs were most effective when the intensity of transmission was low, supporting their use early in a pandemic and at first sign of resurgence.

During the early stages of responding to an emerging infectious disease, NPIs tend to be the only controls available before the development of drug treatments and vaccines.

However, as was seen during the pandemic, their use can have adverse personal, educational and economic consequences – making assessment of their effectiveness essential.

Prof Sir Mark Walport, the foreign secretary of the Royal Society and chair of the report’s expert working group, said: “There is sufficient evidence to conclude that early, stringent implementation of packages of complementary NPIs was unequivocally effective in limiting Sars-CoV-2 infections.

“That does not mean every NPI was effective in every setting, or at all times, but learning the lessons from the wealth of research generated in this pandemic will be key to equipping ourselves for the next one.”

The review found social distancing and lockdowns were the most effective category of NPIs. Stay-at-home orders, physical distancing and restrictions on gathering size were repeatedly found to be associated with significant reduction in Sars-CoV-2 transmission. The more stringent the measures were the greater the effect they had, the experts found.

In care homes, measures such as cohorting and visitor restrictions were associated with reduced transmission and reduced outbreaks.

Additionally, the report found that in school settings, closures and other distancing measures were associated with reduced Covid-19 cases, but the effectiveness varied depending on a range of factors, including adherence and pupils’ ages.

When looking at the use of face masks and mask mandates, studies consistently reported the measures were an effective approach to reduce infection. The evidence further indicates higher-quality respirator masks – such as N95 masks – were more effective than surgical-type masks.

Assessing test, trace and isolate measures, studies from several countries which implemented high levels of contact tracing, with isolation of infected individuals and their contacts, found reductions in Covid-19 deaths.

For the future, the report recommends establishing international protocols for conducting clinical trials and observational research on NPIs in advance of further pandemics.

Prof Christopher Dye, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford, said: “The next thing is Disease X as WHO (World Health Organization) has called it.

“We don’t know what it’s going to be, we don’t know where it’s going to appear. So we need a system which is generic enough in character to handle anything of that kind, and for me, the number one priority is to have a global system of surveillance response.”

Prof Christl Donnelly, head of department and professor of applied statistics at the University of Oxford and professor of statistical epidemiology at Imperial College London, said: “We can’t say for certain, and we wouldn’t try to, what might be implemented in future. But we can characterise the impacts of what happened with the coronavirus, and that will inform decision-making, but then of course, in a future pandemic, more data will need to be collected.”

The report draws together the findings of six expert-led evidence reviews, published in a special themed issue of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

The reviews looked at thousands of published studies, and identified papers that were suitably robust for inclusion in each review category.

No to ‘too small’ Clyst Honiton homes

But they’re the same size as ones approved earlier

East Devon councillors have turned down a development scheme at Clyst Honiton because the homes are “too small” and it would encourage peope to drive.

Alison Stephenson, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Planners were not prepared to accept proposals 10 square metres below standards recommended in national planning guidelines despite approving  houses of the same size earlier this year.

The plans for four commercial units and nine two-bed homes by Eagle One MMIII Ltd for land next to Old Tithebarn, Clyst Honiton were also rejected by East Devon District Council’s planning committee on the grounds that the 53 car parking spaces – 35 for commercial parking – were excessive when the council is promoting sustainable transport.

The land falls within the wider Tithebarn Green development which includes more than 1,500 homes, a community centre, employment provision and allotments and open space which have all received planning permission.

Whilst officers said this new proposal is acceptable in principle, they recommended it for refusal and are not keen on the development’s layout and appearance which they say needs more soft landscaping. They also want the homes to face the cycle path for what they call ‘natural surveillance’ and crime prevention.

They said cycling is a “real focal point of development in this area” as the cycle route stretches to Exeter, Exeter Airport, the science park and Skypark.

Development manager Wendy Ormsby said whilst there is no size standard for housing in the council’s local plan, the government is giving more weight to national planning policy guidelines of 79 square metres for two-bed properties, but the proposals are for 69 and 72 square meters.

Cllr Ian Barlow (Ind, Sidmouth) said it seemed a little unfair that this scheme should be refused when the houses are exactly the same size as those passed in January.

“This is in fact an improvement on what we passed this year as the houses have solar panels,” he said. “There is a good separation between the homes and the commerce side of the development.

“I think we are being unreasonable to people who are trying to build houses that we desperately need. We should be working more with these people to get it right.”

Cllr Brian Bailey (Con, Exmouth) said: “It seems grossly unfair that one month you can build these houses and the next you can’t. If this came to appeal I can’t see it standing up.”

But Cllr Simon Smith (Ind, Axminster) said the major difference between then and now was a new administration: “As a planning authority, we are mostly made up of new faces and I think we can be proud that we set the bar today of holding on to this standard as a precedent for future applications.

“We can say hey we are going to protect the welfare of people who want to buy or rent in this area and that is a good way to start this administration.”

Cllr David Wilson (Lab, Exmouth Halsdon) agreed: “I do not see why we have to make the same decisions as those that were made in the past. As a relatively new committee, if we show we are happy to have no consideration to how small a property is that could affect future proposals that come to us which could be smaller and smaller.”

Speaking for the applicant, Paul Withers said the level of car parking was critical to the scheme’s viability. He said the proposal had the same amount of parking as a commercial scheme granted planning permission earlier this year which is just 20 metres away from the site.

He said that at no time through the application process had officers raised the issue of house sizes and the plans did not conflict with planning policies.

The applicants would have been amenable to revising the hard and soft landscaping scheme, he added.

Rishi Sunak inadvertently failed to declare childcare interest, rules MPs watchdog

Apparently our Prime Minister, who pledged that “this government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”, is “confused” about the rules on declaring financial interests.

He seems to have confused the concept of registration with the concept of declaration, a concept most of our councillors seem to understand and apply. – Owl

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak failed to correctly declare his wife’s financial interest in a childminding agency, the MPs watchdog has ruled.

By Damian Grammaticas and Kate Whannel www.bbc.co.uk

Daniel Greenberg, parliamentary commissioner for standards, said this arose out of “confusion” about the rules and was “inadvertent”.

In a letter to Mr Greenberg, Mr Sunak said he accepted the ruling and apologised.

The inquiry is now closed and the PM will not face further action.

A complaint was submitted to Mr Greenberg following Mr Sunak’s appearance before MPs on the Commons Liaison Committee in March.

During the session, the prime minister was questioned about his policy to provide payments to encourage people who became childminders. The cash would be doubled for those who signed up through six private childcare firms listed on the UK government’s website, with the money being used to cover the firms’ fees.

Mr Sunak’s wife Akshata Murty was a shareholder in one of those private firms, Koru Kids but when asked if he had any declarations to make Mr Sunak said “no, all my disclosures are declared in the normal way”.

Following an investigation, Mr Greenberg said he had concluded that Ms Murty’s shareholding was a relevant interest that should have been declared to MPs.

The commissioner said that, even if Mr Sunak had not been aware of the shareholding at the time of his appearance before the committee, he was aware of it when he later wrote a letter to the Committee chairman Sir Bernard Jenkin to clarify things and should, at that stage, have declared it.

Mr Sunak had recorded the shareholding under arrangements for ministers to declare their interests. That record is not publicly declared but held by civil servants.

Some of these interests are made public on the list of ministers’ interests. The independent adviser on ministers’ interests advises on which interests need to be included in this publicly-available list.

Mr Sunak said three different independent advisers had told him his wife’s shareholdings did not need to be added.

Mr Greenberg said he accepted Mr Sunak believed that, by registering the interest, he had complied with his obligations, and so did not declare it in his letter to Sir Bernard Jenkin.

He added that Mr Sunak “had confused the concept of registration with the concept of declaration” and so the “the failure to declare arose out of this confusion and was accordingly inadvertent on the part of Mr Sunak”.

Mr Greenberg said he was concluding his inquiry using what is called the “rectification procedure” – a process used to correct minor failures to declare interests.

It means the commissioner stops short of submitting a full report to MPs on the Commons Committee on Standards and Privileges for them to consider any possible further action.

Replying to Mr Greenberg, Mr Sunak said that during the Liaison Committee hearing he had “no idea” of the connection between Koru Kids and his government’s childcare policy.

“It was was only after the hearing that I became aware of the link, as set out in my subsequent letter to Sir Bernard, the Chair of the Liaison Committee.

“I now understand that my letter to Sir Bernard was not sufficiently expansive regarding declaration (as distinct from registration)… On reflection, I accept your opinion that I should have used the letter to declare the interest explicitly… I apologise for these inadvertent errors and confirm acceptance of your proposal for rectification.”

Devon housing crisis: “Little oiks like us can go to hell”

“Here in Devon, the rise of Airbnb and short-term lets has priced people out of their communities. LibDems have warned of the effect this is having on the rental market, now is the time for Ministers to act to stop our communities being hollowed out.” – Richard Foord comments on Devon Housing Commission.

Prompting this reply from Jack Earnshaw: “No chance! Half the lets owned by ministers or their friends. Little oiks like us can go to hell.”

Nothing on the subject from Simon Jupp, probably still perambulating around Cullompton handing out leaflets explaining Tory plans for Honiton and Sidmouth.

UK on recession alert amid slump in private sector activity

Britain’s policymakers have been put on recession alert after a closely watched measure of economic health showed the UK gripped by a Europe-wide slump in private sector activity.

Larry Elliott www.theguardian.com

In a sign that higher interest rates are now leading to a rapid slowdown in growth as well as choking off inflation, the latest monthly business health checks showed weakness in the UK services and manufacturing sectors and the poorest performance since the lockdown in early 2021.

Problems in Britain were mirrored in the eurozone, where activity has dropped to its lowest level since November 2020. Germany, the single currency’s biggest economy, is being particularly hard hit by the slump in demand for its manufactured goods.

The warnings of problems ahead were flagged up by surveys of purchasing managers, seen as a good guide to future trends in the economy. The surveys use 50 as the cutoff point between growth and contraction.

The UK’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) conducted by S&P and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply fell from 50.8 in July to 47.9 in August. Service sector activity fell from 51.5 to 48.7, while the manufacturing PMI fell from 45.3 to 42.5.

Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P global market intelligence, said: “The early PMI survey for August suggests that inflation should moderate further in the months ahead but also indicates that the fight against inflation is carrying a heavy cost in terms of heightened recession risks.

“A renewed contraction of the economy already looks inevitable, as an increasingly severe manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a further faltering of the service sector’s spring revival. The survey is indicative of GDP declining by 0.2% over the third quarter so far.”

Williamson said companies were feeling the impact of Britain’s cost of living crisis, lower export demand, higher interest rates and fears about the economic outlook. Firms were seeing their ability to raise prices curbed and inflation was on course to drop to 4% in the months ahead.

“A further pullback in hiring in August, meanwhile, indicates that the labour market is losing steam, which should feed through to lower wage pressures. While a further hike in interest rates in September looks to be on the cards, the August PMI data will add to speculation that rates could soon peak.”

The PMI for the eurozone, conducted by Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCB), showed overall business activity slipping from 48.6 in July to 47.0 in August. The services PMI fell from 50.9 to 48.3, while the manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 42.7 to 43.7.

Cyrus de la Rubia, the chief economist at HCB, said: “The service sector of the eurozone is unfortunately showing signs of turning down to match the poor performance of manufacturing.

“Indeed, service companies reported shrinking activity for the first time since the end of last year, while output in manufacturing dropped again. Considering the PMI figures in our GDP nowcast leads us to the conclusion that the eurozone will shrink by 0.2% in the third quarter.”

Paignton Crossways homes scrapped. New developers and ideas needed

Supported housing planned for the site of the former Crossways shopping centre in Paignton will never see the light of day.

It’s what happens when the Tories regain power.

Developers know best! – Owl

Guy Henderson, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Instead a new developer will be sought to come up with fresh ideas for the town centre location, which is likely to include affordable housing and possibly flats for key workers.

The derelict shopping centre had been earmarked for extra care and sheltered housing accommodation under the former Liberal Democrat/Independent coalition running Torbay Council. The council had planned to build the new development and then put it in the hands of someone else.

But the new Conservative administration – in place since the elections in May – has no plans to undertake construction itself and will instead seek a developer.

Deputy council leader Chris Lewis (Con, Preston) said: “The council is here to provide services, not to build houses and factories.

“We’re here to help other people do that.”

Torbay Council made a compulsory purchase of the crumbling sixties’ shopping centre in 2021, and planning permission has been given for 90 housing units as well as commercial space on the ground floor.

Bulldozers moved in earlier this year and the centre has been largely razed to the ground.

TorVista Homes, a company the council owns, had been expected to become the owner of the completed properties, which would have been affordable housing for local people.

But Cllr Lewis said: “The project that went through the planning committee cannot be delivered.

The finances to build it simply don’t stack up.”

He said it would cost the council £10 million to proceed with the approved scheme; money it does not have.

“We can’t go ahead with a shortfall like that,” he added. “We are talking to developers about coming up with a new scheme, but it’s early days.

“It takes time to get an investor, an end user and the support of the council.”

Social media commentators have been speculating that Crossways could end up bulldozed but left as an empty site for years to come.

But Cllr Lewis said he was hopeful that would not happen.

“We will do everything possible to deliver something on that site,” he said. “It’s a good site.

“The previous plans did not stack up, but there will be plans that do stack up.

“People are all talking doom and gloom, but we have only just taken on the job.

“Judge us after four years, not four months.”

Eels have vanished from Somerset Levels, DNA tests show

Eel experts say they are shocked to find no evidence of eels in the Somerset Levels, which once teemed with the critically endangered fish.

Helena Horton www.theguardian.com

DNA sampling by the Sustainable Eel Group and Somerset Eel Recovery Project found no traces of eel DNA.

The Levels are a unique flat landscape that extend throughout the north and centre of Somerset, comprising 69,000 hectares (170,000 acres) of wetland and coastal plain land. While once it was marshland wilderness, it has been drained and farmed by humans since ancient times – drainage of the Levels has been detected before the Domesday Book was written.

They were also once a hotspot for eels, and anglers fishing for bream and roach gave small eels the nickname “bootlaces” as they tangled around their lines, knotting them. They were even once used as currency in Somerset; in the 12th century, tenants of Glastonbury Abbey were expected to pay the monks 14,000 eels a year in rent.

Experts believe barriers in the wetlands, built to keep water back from farmland and homes, are the reason there are no eels in the drains of the Levels.

Using the DNA sampling company NatureMetrics, the eel campaigners took water samples that were filtered and tested for fragments of eel DNA.

Andrew Kerr, chair of the Sustainable Eel Group, said: “We were very, very surprised to see no evidence of European eel in the Somerset Levels. Off the River Axe, there is an incredible network of drains built by man to drain the Somerset Levels. And we thought we would find eels throughout the whole area.

“Something like 100 million eels a year come up the Bristol Channel, going into the Parrett and the Somerset Levels and then on up the Severn, all the way up to Wales. And just as there are 1.3m barriers to fish migration in the rivers of Europe, the Somerset Levels are full of barriers, but we thought all these drains that surround the area of Wedmore, one of the great Somerset Levels, would be full of eels.”

While they found eels in varying quantities in the rivers feeding the Levels, there were none in the complex drainage systems of the wetland areas.

“In the drainage ditches, we found no eel DNA. The river simply isn’t feeding the eels into the levels, because they cannot cross the barriers,” said Kerr.

He also blamed an electric pumping station for killing the eels: “The drainage system is separate from the river system and is separated by barriers and walls and a great big pumping station.

“That electric pumping station has been there for 50 years. But obviously there were eels behind those walls before it went in, and eels have a lifecycle of 10 to 20 years, it takes some time for the pumps to kill them all. And that’s obviously what happened. We were very shocked to find no eel in that latticework of drains, its ideal habitat.”

Kerr is not calling for all the barriers to be removed and the farmland flooded, but for the water network to be made more eel-friendly with solutions to the barriers. “Nobody would expect you to turn it into a wilderness because you’d lose all that productive farmland. But what we have to do is find solutions to the blocked migration pathways.”

Ali Morse, water policy manager for The Wildlife Trusts, told the Guardian: “The Somerset Levels have been a stronghold for eels for thousands of years, but illegal fishing and the loss of wetland habitat have contributed to catastrophic declines. It is estimated that populations have decreased by as much as 90% since the 1980s. Somerset Wildlife Trust and partners are working hard to give eels a future in the Levels, including through release programmes and targeted reedbed management. It is critical we create and restore wetlands to give eels and other wildlife that depend on this vital habitat a future.”

Next week, the Sustainable Eel group will work with local people from Somerset to weave traditional ropes, which can be slung over the barriers. The idea is for the eels to slither up the ropes, over the barriers, and migrate.

Kerr said: “We are building a great deal of local interest in eel. And that’s what’s triggering all this because the locals want their eels back. We’ve managed to connect them to their history and their tradition. And they’ve obviously are aware of it and frustrated that so little has been done, given the scale of the problem.”

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and Natural England, have been contacted for comment.

Planned battery store near Axminster turned down by East Devon council

Planners have thrown out a proposal to store energy batteries in a field in East Devon for a second time over safety fears.

Alison Stephenson www.midweekherald.co.uk 

Members of East Devon District Council’s planning committee are not convinced that enough measures have been put in place to prevent a “catastrophe” should an explosion, fire or pollution incident occur.

The fire service, despite having no objections, commented on the lack of detail and councillors say they have “grave concerns” about enough water being available to fight a fire as no fire hydrants are nearby.

Neither is there sufficient holding capacity to prevent contaminated water from lithium batteries entering local rivers and an ‘aquifer’ which sits below the site and stores groundwater for domestic purposes.

A previous application for a battery energy storge system (BESS) on land at Hawkchurch to the north east of Axminster National Grid Sub Station by Enso Energy was turned down in February due to it not being low carbon, as well as insufficient information on safety and its impact on the landscape. This is now the subject of a planning appeal which will be heard in two weeks’ time.

Councillors criticised the new “almost identical” new plan and turned it down by eight votes (with two abstentions) saying they would let a planning appeal decide its fate.

An expert for EDDC will argue the case at the appeal that, contrary to new government guidance that battery energy storage systems are low carbon, the site will trade power from the grid which uses fossil fuels, so it would be detrimental to the environment.

Ward member Cllr Duncan Mackinder (Lib Dem, Yarty) said local residents bared all the risks for no gain.

“If a fire occurs there are two choices – let it burn or fight it with water,” he said.

“If they let it burn, the next large amount of rainfall will force contamination into the water courses and aquifer but there will also be untold damage to the water supply by the amount of water that would be needed if they fight it.

“At an incident at a site like this in Liverpool, the fire service was able to be on scene within eight minutes and used water from local hydrants, it still ran out of water and the fire burned for over 48 hours.

“We are not in that position, we would arrive much later and the situation would be much worse by the time the fire crews arrive.

”Some 1.3 billion litres of water would needed if the entire site was affected.”

He said the site was at risk of thermal runway – a fire that generates its own oxygen if charging or temperature control fails and vapour cloud as well as explosion.

He added: “We already have phosphates in the Exe Valley rivers.

”Think what would happen if lithium laced fire water got in there too. It would be catastrophic for the area.”

Cllr Alastair Bruce (Con, Feniton) has concerns about the whole enterprise. He said he had experience of an aquifer which had to be taken out of service when it became contaminated by the sea.

“Water had to be pumped to local residents from 43 miles away. With climate change on the rampage these kind of resources are even more precious us to.

“The risk to the aquifer is far too great to approve this application.”

Hawkchurch Action Group employed a planning consultant who was among several people to speak against the application.

Opponents, which include the parish council, say it is wrong that BESS sites are now determined by local authorities without the necessary expertise as the technology is relatively new and there are regular incidents involving them.

However, an officers’ report says that while there are objections on safety grounds, many of the concerns are either regulated by other bodies or can be addressed by imposing conditions to planning permission.

They recommended approval of the latest plan saying comments from the Devon and Cornwall Fire and Rescue Service and the additional information provided by the applicant satisfied them that health and safety matters are satisfactory.

A safety management plan will be put in place before the proposal can go ahead and Enso Energy said it will meet all legal safety requirements, and details can be addressed by planning stipulations.

Fire experts said whilst individual schemes should be assessed on their own merits, a second site access was recommended, a perimeter road around the site and a distanceof 1.4 metres between battery cells.

Lucy Letby: NHS managers must be held to account, doctor says

The correspondent who drew this article to Owl’s attention pointed out that the same situation, regarding accountability, applies to council CEO’s. (Especially those who double or triple-hat their roles by adding “Head of Paid Staff” and even “Director of Planning” to their portfolio, giving themselves tremendous power).

Hospital managers should be regulated in a similar way to doctors and nurses, the senior doctor who first raised concerns about Lucy Letby has said.

By Malu Cursino www.bbc.co.uk

Dr Stephen Brearey was the lead consultant on the neonatal unit where serial killer Letby worked and raised the alarm in October 2015.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there was “no apparent accountability” for what NHS managers do in trusts.

She murdered seven babies and attempted to murder six others in a neonatal unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital, in Cheshire.

The first five murders in all happened between June and October 2015 and – despite months of warnings – the final two were in June 2016.

In an interview, Dr Brearey claimed senior staff at the Countess of Chester Hospital were worried about reputational damage to the organisation.

He said that instead of acting on his warnings he and his colleagues lives were made very difficult – so much so that they felt under attack. “You go to senior colleagues with a problem, and you come away confused and anxious,” Dr Brearey explained.

And he claimed his experience was not uncommon in the NHS. Dr Brearey said he had been contacted by clinicians across the UK “in the last three days” who tell him “clinicians raised concerns with senior members of the hospital and their lives were made very difficult by doing that”.

“I can’t emphasise enough how difficult a position this puts the clinician in,” he went on to say. “Carrying out your clinical practice in that environment is very difficult.”

The consultant added: “Doctors and nurses all have the regulatory bodies that we have to answer to, and quite often we’ll see senior managers who have no apparent accountability for what they do in our trusts and then move to other trusts.”

He said he worries about senior managers’ future actions, adding that “there doesn’t seem to be any system to make them accountable, and for them to justify their actions in a systematic way”.

Dr Brearey also said he did not consider himself a whistleblower, but “I was simply trying to escalate concerns that all my colleagues shared, of a spike in mortality, an association with a member of staff, the unusual nature of these events, and the unusual timing of these events.

“We had reviewed all the cases on multiple occasions with an external expert and put all those concerns on paper and I felt really I was following a process rather than speaking out.”

In a statement, an NHS spokesperson said: “It is absolutely vital that everyone working in the NHS feels they can raise concerns and that these are acted on and we have reminded NHS leaders about the importance of this following the verdict last week.”

They added that every NHS trust is expected to adopt an updated Freedom To Speak Up policy, and ensure the information is easily accessible to staff.

Dr Naru Narayanan, president of the doctors’ union the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association, told Sky News there should “better protection for people who raise concerns”.

“But we see time and again that people who do so face retribution, revenge and retaliation, and they fear for their careers,” Dr Narayanan added.

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Analysis box by Nick Triggle, health correspondent

This is not the first time there has been a call for the professional regulation of managers.

A series of reviews over the past decade or so have put forward proposals for greater oversight of managers in the health service, including the Francis Review into the Stafford Hospital scandal.

Doctors and nurses have to measure up to fitness to practice standards and must be registered with a regulatory body that aims to ensure they are safe to care for patients.

But NHS managers do not. A code of conduct was established in 2002, asking that managers act in the best interest of patients and listen to concerns when they are raised. However, there is no real national mechanism to ensure the code is applied.

In recent years the government has talked about beefing up regulation, but nothing concrete has happened that has radically changed the approach to NHS management.

Supporters of regulation believe it would also lead to the introduction of consistent training and standards for managers – but there are concerns about cost and introducing more regulation and red-tape. There is already an inspection regime covering all NHS services that is meant to ensure staff including managers are providing safe care and have proper procedures in place to address that when it is not.

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On Friday, the government announced an independent inquiry into the events surrounding the Letby case.

Education Secretary Gillian Keegan has said the inquiry should consider whether NHS managers need to be regulated in the same way as doctors.

Dr Brearey has said that given the “magnitude of the events that occurred” and the impact Letby’s crimes have had on so many families, the inquiry should be judge led and have statutory powers – so witnesses can be forced to give evidence if needed. It is “clearly what the parents deserve,” he added.

Currently, the inquiry that has been announced is non-statutory, meaning it has lesser powers.

Asked whether the inquiry should be statutory, Ms Keegan said that option “is on the table” and “can be discussed”.

The inquiry aims to look into the wider circumstances surrounding what happened, including the handling of clinicians’ concerns.

Former chief executive of the hospital Tony Chambers and former medical director Ian Harvey, who were in charge at the time Letby was working at the hospital, have said they will co-operate fully with the inquiry.

Alison Kelly, who was the senior manager in charge of nursing at the time, is being investigated, the Nursing and Midwifery Council, or NMC, said on Tuesday.

She had previously been suspended from her current role as director of nursing for Rochdale Care Organisation, part of the Northern Care Alliance, “in light of information” that emerged during the trial.

NMC, the nursing regulator in the UK, said it will investigate Ms Kelly’s role as director of nursing at the Countess of Chester Hospital, a position she left in 2021.

Separately, calls are growing for the government to change the law to compel convicts to attend sentencing. Letby refused to turn up in the dock at Manchester Crown Court on Monday.

The judge proceeded without her and addressed her as if she were in the dock.

Letby was given multiple whole-life terms – one for each offence – becoming only the fourth woman in UK history to receive the sentence of whole life order. The trial lasted for more than 10 months and is believed to be the longest murder trial in the UK.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it was “cowardly that people who commit such horrendous crimes do not face their victims”.

Citizen Scientists: ‘We’re doing it for our children’

Clutching test tubes, notepads and wearing wellies, Alice and Olivia and their parents Helen and Erik are on a mission.

By Jonathan Morris www.bbc.co.uk

Their aim is to sample the water of a stream which meanders through the town of Modbury in south Devon, eventually entering the sea at Mothecombe.

The family, who are acting as citizen scientists, are part of a community group of about 120 people who are monitoring the River Erme and its tributaries for pollution.

Campaigners believe the work could lead to real change in the water quality of British rivers and beaches by raising awareness of problem pollution areas.

The Westcountry Rivers Trust (WRT) trains citizen scientists to take samples legally and safely.

‘Fix things’

The volunteers then record their results and upload them to a map on the WRT website.

Mother Helen said: “There’s quite a small, passionate group who have been measuring the local streams and rivers.

“We’ve all read about the pollution in our rivers and we can see it because I have an app on my phone and I’ll get a notification that it’s not safe to swim on the beach and the children go on the beach all the time.”

She believes citizen scientists can make a difference “if there are enough people who are passionate about it”.

“I think you’ve got to be part of trying to fix things for rivers and streams and hold to account the people and companies that are polluting the rivers and making it unsafe for our children to swim on the beaches,” she said.

“No-one’s going to make a difference by doing nothing, and you know, we’re doing it for them and they love being part of it, they love being involved.”

Also among the Holbeton Citizen Science group, also known as the Dippers, is Chris Grey, a retired lawyer who lives near the River Erme.

“We want to know what’s going on in our rivers and how we can improve them,” he said.

“To lobby we need hard science.”

The group is planning to test all the tributaries of the Erme, from Modbury to Ugborough, with the help of landlord John Mildmay-White who allows them access to his land.

Testing is also happening on the River Dart and is expected to start on the River Avon soon.

The rivers can be affected by combined sewer overflows, which are pipes that release untreated sewage into waterways when treatment works are overwhelmed by wet weather.

They can also be affected by run-off from farms, which can carry phosphates and lead to build-up of algae that can kill wildlife, according to the WRT.

Phosphates, chemicals found in fertiliser, sewage and farm slurry are among the pollutants being tested for.

Downstream from Modbury, Flete Estate landowner John Mildmay-White said the aim of the testing was to start building an understanding of “where do we need to investigate more, which particular stream or brook is changing when it rains and where can we isolate the source of pollution so we can do some more scientific testing”.

He added they wanted to improve the “ecological state of the river, but currently we have got issues with the salmon population, the trout population and biodiversity within the water and this all needs to improve”.

Pinpointing the problem areas is the work of WRT, which feeds information from citizen scientists into a map that is being used to put pressure on politicians, the Environment Agency and water companies.

Nicola Rogers, from WRT, said: “We don’t think at the moment that there’s enough testing happening to really tell us about the state of our rivers in the West Country, so citizen scientists can help us fill some of those data gaps.

“And it can do that because the numbers of people that can go out and test their rivers locally, gives us a really big data set which is really informative.

“With that density of data we can lobby their local politicians, their national politicians, anyone who can help them, to drive the change that they want to see to improve the quality of our regional waterways.”

South West Water (SWW) said it had “followed the rapid growth of citizen science in recent years with great interest” and it wanted to “expand their citizen science programmes among local communities”.

It added it was working with the trust on its own citizen science scheme.

“What became clear is that, for the citizen-collected data to realise its potential impact, there was an urgent need for greater volunteer training, more robust data collation and analysis, and clearly defined reporting mechanisms,” it said.

The Catchment Systems Thinking Cooperative, in which SWW and WRT are partners, was seeking to “create a radical step-change in the contribution of citizen science and community monitoring”.

A pilot scheme between SWW, the WRT and the University of Exeter was being set up on the River Tamar and SWW was backing citizen scientists on the River Dart.

An Environment Agency spokesperson said: “The Erme estuary is one of south Devon’s most popular local sites for bathing, and holds both Site of Special Scientific Interest and Marine Conservation Zone status.

“We are taking significant action to ensure water quality in the area is maintained.

“Citizen Science initiatives provide invaluable data, which complements our own monitoring and assessment work and enables a greater level of engagement with partners.”

People can report suspected pollution to the agency’s free 24-hour incident hotline 0800 807060.

Rishi Sunak facing red wall wipeout at general election, shock poll shows

The Tories are facing electoral oblivion in the red wall as a shock poll reveals they will lose every single seat.

Archie Mitchell www.independent.co.uk

Polling from Electoral Calculus, shared with The Independent, reveals all 42 red wall seats held by the Conservatives are set to return to Labour at the next general election.

The scale of the rebellion against the government appears to in part be driven by the spiralling cost of living, with a separate analysis seen by The Independent showing the crisis is having a devastating impact on Tory-held seats in the red wall.

The data, compiled by analytics firm Outra, show 15 Conservative-held red wall seats, which were won at the last election but have historically supported the Labour Party, are among the 50 constituencies with the highest number of financially distressed voters in the country.

Such as Great Grimsby, Blackpool South and Walsall North are among those with the highest portion of voters deemed financially vulnerable.

In total, 15 of the top 50 seats in which voters are at risk of falling behind on their bills were won by the Conservatives in 2019.

It follows research by investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown that shows the northeast has been hit hard by the cost of living crisis – with the joint lowest level of savings in the country, and just a third of households reporting they have enough cash left at the end of the month.

The figures will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street, with experts warning that voters facing financial distress will make their voices heard in the ballot box.

Pollster and political analyst Robert Hayward pointed to a defining phrase from Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 run to unseat George HW Bush as US president: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

He told The Independent that the economy is “always the most important issue” on polling day across all age groups, social groups and genders.

Lord Hayward said it was especially important for the Conservatives, having historically been considered better managers of the economy than Labour.

“The government has to restore that credibility,” he warned.

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak’s party may be doing so “slowly”, with inflation finally falling, but without further progress before an expected general election in October 2024, the Conservatives will lose.

Almost two-thirds of voters believe the economy to be one of the top three issues facing the country, putting it significantly ahead of health and immigration, YouGov polling shows.

The risk of a red wall wipeout will also raise fears in Conservative HQ, with Lord Hayward warning it will leave Mr Sunak facing “serious difficulty” securing an overall majority.

Addressing the collapse in support facing Tories in the red wall, Lord Hayward said that while the party has achieved majorities without the voting bloc in the past, “it delivered the size of that majority last time around”.

He added that the failure to win those seats next year “would leave the Conservatives in serious difficulty trying to find an overall majority”.

Electoral Calculus chief executive Martin Baxter pointed to former PM Mr Johnson’s acknowledgement that red wall voters had “lent him” their support in 2019.

“And it looks like they are taking it back,” he said. “The Conservative tide went up that beach in 2019, and it looks like the tide is going out again.”

The pollster is forecasting that the Tories will lose all 42 of their red wall seats.

And Mr Baxter said that while the economic figures “underline” the struggle in voters in those areas for the Conservatives, the prospect of the party holding on to power in the general election is already “not likely”.

Nationally, Electoral Calculus predicts a landslide Labour victory, winning around 460 seats, with the Conservatives reduced to just 90 seats.

Many red wall seats were turned blue in 2019 as voters repulsed by the Labour leader at the time, Jeremy Corbyn, backed Boris Johnson to “Get Brexit Done” and “level up” neglected towns and cities.

But Outra’s figures show that in many of those seats, voters are now feeling the pinch of the cost of living squeeze.

In Great Grimsby, which Mr Johnson loyalist Lia Nici won from Labour’s Melanie Onn in 2019, more than a quarter of constituents are at risk of financial distress.

Ms Onn, who is Labour’s candidate hoping to win back Great Grimsby next year, told The Independent the figures “laid bare the reality of life under the Conservatives”.

“Areas like ours that placed trust in the Tories have been hit the hardest,” she added.

Ms Onn said: “Their economic mismanagement has caused incomes to nosedive, revealing a disregard for ordinary working people.”

In Blackpool South, held by suspended Tory MP Scott Benton, just under a quarter risk not being able to meet payments. And in Walsall North, represented by Eddie Hughes, 23.1 per cent of voters are at risk of financial distress.

Other Tory MPs believed to be vulnerable to losing their seats include Jonathan Gullis, Johnny Mercer and Jack Brereton.

Commission calls for new measures on Devon holiday lets

A housing commission has written to ministers calling for them to enforce new measures on holiday lets in Devon.

The Devon Housing Commission was only fully launched in July and has produced their report in commendable short order, though Owl has yet to find a copy in the public domain. 

Government is based in affluent London and the South East. This is the region where people seem to believe they have a “birthright” to a second home in the country. Despite our regional feelings, will Ministers drag their feet on this? – Owl

By Georgina Barnes www.bbc.co.uk

Companies such as Airbnb were responsible for properties switching from long-term to short-term lets, the Devon Housing Commission (DHC) said.

It called for new measures to control the growth of short-term lettings and curb a shortage of homes.

Airbnb said it welcomes regulation and supports the introduction of a host register.

The commission is a partnership between 11 local authorities in Devon to “address the broken housing market”.

Evidence from the University of Exeter suggested an increase of more than 10% in second homes across Devon since 2021, with one in 11 homes in South Hams being either second, holiday or empty homes.

The university also found some wards in Devon had more than 10% of housing as holiday homes – which was over 30% in Salcombe and Thurlestone.

The DHC said there was “widespread concern” that properties switching from long to short-term lettings were a “key reason for the fall of 50% in private lettings” across the county between 2019 and 2021.

Commissioners wrote to Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, and Lucy Frazer, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, calling for them to enable councils to “limit growth of short-term lets” by private landlords or companies.

The DHC said the letter set out two proposals for legislative change, with the first requiring registration of short-term lettings “in order to establish the facts”, and to require change of use planning consent for any new short-term lettings to allow local authorities to determine how many holiday lets “should be created” in their patch.

The commission also said it recognised the power government had given to local authorities to increase council tax on second homes by up to 100%, but recommended councils “ring fence the extra revenue” for “meeting the housing shortages that second homes can exacerbate”.

The local authorities involved include Devon County Council, Exeter City Council, East Devon District Council, South Hams District Council, Plymouth City Council, North Devon District Council, Mid Devon District Council and Teignbridge District Council, West Devon Borough Council, Torridge District Council and Torbay Council.

An Airbnb spokesperson said: “Airbnb welcomes regulation and has long-led calls for the introduction of a Host register to give authorities the information they need.

“The typical UK host rents their space for just three nights a month, and we want to work with policymakers to support everyday Hosts and clampdown on speculators that drive local concerns.”

Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 7 August

**** you, Jack, I’m alright

Haul up the ladder, your pay rise would be inflationary – Owl

Fat cat bosses enjoy £500m pay rise as CEO salaries soar

Bosses at Britain’s biggest companies saw their pay surge by 16 per cent last year despite ordinary workers’ wages being outstripped by inflation, research has found.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk

Chief executives for firms on the FTSE 100 enjoyed a pay bump amounting to around £500,000 in 2022, according to the High Pay Centre.

Unions said it showed that Britain had become “a land of grotesque extremes”, with well-off company chiefs benefiting from pay rises while hard-pressed families struggle during the cost of living crisis.

The gap between average top bosses and average workers widened further over the year – with the median CEO paid 118 times the median UK full-time worker in 2022, up from 108 times in 2021.

Median pay for a FTSE 100 CEO increased from £3.38m in 2021 to £3.91m 2022, the High Pay Centre said. It represents an upward trend after it dropped to £2.46m in 2020 after companies were hit by the Covid pandemic.

Pascal Soriot, boss of pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, was the highest-earning FTSE 100 chief after receiving pay of £15.3m for the year.

Other particularly highly paid bosses in 2022 – the year in which the energy crisis saw gas and electricity bills soar – included Bernard Looney of BP and Ben van Beurden of Shell.

The High Pay Centre has called for new requirements for companies to include a minimum of two elected workforce representatives on the remuneration committees that set executive pay.

Luke Hildyard, director of the High Pay Centre, said: “At a time when so many households are struggling with living costs, an economic model that prioritises a half-a-million-pound pay rise for executives who are already multi-millionaires is surely going wrong somewhere.

“How major employers distribute the wealth that their workforce creates has a big impact on people’s living standards,” said the campaigner.

Mr Hildyard added: “We need to give workers more voice on company boards, strengthen trade union rights and enable low and middle-income earners to get a fairer share in relation to those at the top.”

It comes a week after official figures showed that average wages are continuing to grow behind rises in the cost of living, despite progress in tackling price rises.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said regular pay growth, which excludes bonuses, reached 7.8 per cent over the three months to June compared to a year earlier, but actually dropped by 0.6 per cent once inflation was taken into account.

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said: “While millions of families have seen their budgets shredded by the cost of living crisis, city directors have enjoyed bumper pay rises.”

The union boss added: “This is why workers must be given seats on company boards to inject some much-needed common sense and restraint. We need an economy that delivers better living standards for all – not just those at the top. But under the Tories, Britain has become a land of grotesque extremes.”

Meanwhile, Labour said the economy is “stuck in a low-growth trap” under the Tories, as its analysis of the latest economic forecasts suggests that UK growth will be the slowest in the G7 in 2024.

The Bank of England’s August Monetary Policy Report suggests that economic growth is expected to be weaker next year than previously expected, downgraded from 0.75 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

Labour said this meant the UK would experience the slowest growth among the G7 group of countries, with shadow Treasury minister Tulip Siddiq warning low growth was now a “hallmark” of Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

A Tory party spokesperson responded: “The biggest threat to growing our economy is a Labour government, with the same old plans that would push up debt, inflation and interest rates.

They added: “Since 2010, the UK has grown faster than France, Japan and Italy, and we are determined to meet the prime minister’s pledge to grow the economy further whilst halving inflation – something Labour have no plan to do.”

Government blasted as award-winning Devon pub shuts

Local leaders have lamented the closure of a popular pub in Devon and pinned the blame on the Government for not stepping in to curb the crippling impact of the cost of living crisis. The Swan closed recently after 16 years in the town of Bampton in Mid Devon.

[Simon Jupp nowhere to be seen, well Bampton isn’t in his constituency but that doesn’t seem to have deterred him recently. Photos of him supporting the hospitality sector, pint in one hand, used to be one of Simon’s things! Though his widely publicised campaigns have proved ineffectual. – Owl]

Lewis Clarke www.devonlive.com

The Swan, which had four AA Gold Stars and two Rosettes for culinary excellence, reached number 25 in the 2022 ‘Estrella Damm’ Top 50 Gastropub Awards. Alongside its sister restaurant, Spelt, it was also featured in the 2021 Michelin Guide and was named by the AA as the nation’s ‘Inn of the Year’ in 2019.

Announcing the news, owners Paul and Donna Berry said: “The strain we have been under for the last couple of years has been immense.

“We are extremely proud to have had The Swan over the last decade. We’ve had amazing customers and staff in that time. Thankfully most of the time has been positive. Clearly Covid was tough and today’s climate is very challenging.”

Councillor Chris Adcock, Liberal Democrat for Clare and Shuttern said: “This is a real blow to Bampton residents and the local economy. The Swan’s reputation brought people in to Bampton from across Devon, the UK and abroad. We would like to thank Donna, Paul and their team for all their hard work and wish them well with “Spelt”, their other restaurant on Brook Street.”

Councillor Rachel Gilmour, Liberal Democrat for Clare and Shuttern added: “This is a sign of the economic times. With the cost of living crisis, higher energy bills, enormously inflated mortgages and wages which don’t keep up with inflation, only the Conservatives are to blame for this and other pub closures. They have trashed our economy, leaving a trail of lost jobs and shattered dreams.”

Following the news, tributes and sadness at the closure of the pub poured in.

One said: “So sorry to hear this Paul as I know how much time and effort both you and Donna have invested in The Swan. You should both be very proud of yourselves for what you have given Bampton. Give yourselves a big pat on the back for all your achievements over the years and well done to all at Team Swan. Xx”

Another added: “Nooooooooo!!! Absolutely devastated for you. You’ve put your all in to it , what a challenge it’s been. Thank you for all our fabulous evenings with you. We will miss you all at the Swan soooo much Xx”

A third said: “Very sad news, quite understandable considering the financial climate. Glad you’ve still got Spelt to continue to deliver exceptional food and hospitality.”

UK housebuilders’ shares fall amid fastest drop in asking prices in five years

In its effort to push down inflation, the Bank of England has raised interest rates from 0.25% in late 2021 to 5.25% at its meeting earlier this month, the highest level since the financial crisis in 2008. That has prompted mortgage rates to rise rapidly, making borrowing for housing more difficult for many prospective buyers.

The widespread expectation is that the Bank will have to raise interest rates further. E.g. “The Bank of England should increase interest rates again to at least 5.5 per cent next month even though inflation is falling, a group of leading experts have told i.

Jasper Jolly www.theguardian.com 

Britain’s housebuilders were the top stock market fallers on Monday after one of the sector’s biggest companies issued a profit warning and data revealed the fastest drop in asking prices in five years.

Housebuilder Crest Nicholson said it expected to make a profit of about £50m this financial year, compared with about £74m expected in June, as the number of house purchases had fallen in recent weeks.

The alert sent housebuilding shares tumbling. Taylor Wimpey led the fallers on the FTSE 100, down 4%, with Persimmon, Berkeley and Barratt down more than 2% as more than £500m was wiped off the value of Britain’s largest housebuilders. The property website Rightmove also fell nearly 2% and Crest Nicholson was the biggest faller on the FTSE 250, down 10%.

It was the latest sign that rising interest rates to combat high inflation, a slowing economy and the wider cost of living crisis are weighing on the UK housing market. Home sellers reduced their asking prices by 1.9% on average in August, the most since 2018, according to data from Rightmove.

In its effort to push down inflation, the Bank of England has raised interest rates from 0.25% in late 2021 to 5.25% at its meeting earlier this month, the highest level since the financial crisis in 2008. That has prompted mortgage rates to rise rapidly, making borrowing for housing more difficult for many prospective buyers.

Crest Nicholson said the number of transactions was dropping. The amount of first-time buyers, who have generally not built up as much equity as older property owners, has dropped particularly sharply because of the end of the help to buy housing subsidy, the company said.

“Against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and rising interest rates, trading conditions for the housing market have worsened during the summer of this year,” it said in a statement to the stock market. “While pricing has remained resilient in a market with limited supply and few distressed sellers, the economic uncertainty is deterring prospective home movers.”

Victoria Scholar, the head of investment at the share trading website Interactive Investor, said: “Expensive mortgages, wider cost-of-living pressures and a general backdrop of macroeconomic unease with sluggish growth and increasing slack in the labour market are taking their toll on house prices, which are expected to feel further pain as the year progresses.”

While the slowdown is expected to affect builders’ profits, the drop in asking prices comes in the context of decades of rises which have put home ownership out of reach for many first-time buyers. The 1.9% drop in asking prices – equivalent to a £7,012 price cut – left the average asking price on Rightmove’s platform at £364,895, the company said. Even after the drop, average prices were £59,000 higher than in August 2019, a 19% increase.

Government data showed that the average UK house price was £288,000 in June, £5,000 higher than 12 months ago, albeit £5,000 below the recent record in November 2022.

Tim Bannister, who oversees Rightmove’s data, said: “There is no glut of properties for sale, with the number of available properties still lower than at this time in 2019 and homes still selling more quickly, with the average time to find a buyer now 55 days compared with 61 days in 2019.

“The lower level of agreed sales compared with this time in 2019 indicates the affordability challenges that many buyers currently face.”

Lucy Letby inquiry: Will ministers be forced to hand chair statutory powers?

(And the reasons why it may be reluctant to do so).

Ministers are under mounting pressure to grant the inquiry into serial killer nurse Lucy Letby legal powers following fears that it lacks the “teeth” needed to unearth potential failings.

Archie Mitchell www.independent.co.uk

The 33-year-old was found guilty on Friday of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder six others between June 2015 and June 2016 in the hospital where she worked.

The murders, which Letby carried out during her shifts on the neonatal ward at the Countess of Chester Hospital, will be subject to an independent inquiry, health secretary Steve Barclay has announced.

Mr Barclay said the probe would “ensure mothers and their partners rightly have faith in our healthcare system”.

But in order to ensure that the families of Letby’s victims receive justice, and that similar incidents do not occur in future, critics say it must be given statutory powers.

Here, The Independent looks at the difference it could make, and why the inquiry has been set up in the way it has.

What are public inquiries for?

Ministers establish public inquiries into events of major public concern or controversial policy issues.

They typically assess what happened, why it happened, who is to blame, and what can be done to ensure that it doesn’t happen again.

Previous examples include the ongoing inquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid pandemic, and the Bloody Sunday Inquiry, which looked at the mass shooting of Catholic demonstrators in Derry by British paratroopers in 1972.

What is a non-statutory inquiry?

Non-statutory inquiries lack the power to take evidence under oath that statutory ones have.

They also offer more flexibility over how they are run, which can make it easier to hear sensitive evidence in private where it is deemed necessary.

Mr Barclay has said that the families of Letby’s victims will be able to have their voices heard in shaping the scope of the inquiry.

But what do critics say?

Such an inquiry lacks the power to compel witnesses to produce evidence or give evidence under oath, leading critics to claim it is “not good enough”.

Lawyers representing the families of two of Letby’s victims say the inquiry will be forced to “rely on the goodwill of those involved”.

In a joint statement, Richard Scorer and Yvonne Agnew, of law firm Slater and Gordon, said: “The failings here are very serious and an inquiry needs to have a statutory basis to have real teeth.”

The lack of statutory powers has raised fears that key pieces of evidence will be missed – for instance, those that could provide the answer to how Letby was able to continue working in the hospital’s neonatal unit for more than a year after concerns about her conduct were first raised.

Why has the government chosen to hold a non-statutory inquiry?

One legal expert told The Independent that a statutory inquiry could “open up a can of worms” in exposing wider failings in the NHS – particularly in relation to allegations that bosses prioritised reputational damage over the concerns of hospital staff.

They said a “more rigorous” statutory public inquiry raised the risk of negative publicity for the government in the run-up to a general election, which is expected to be held next year.

But the government said a non-statutory inquiry was chosen in order to allow it to focus on “lessons that can be learned quickly”.

Will ministers change their minds?

The health secretary has so far refused to listen to calls from families, doctors and MPs to give the inquiry statutory powers, insisting that the current set-up will ensure that victims’ parents and families get the answers they need.

But Emma Norris, the Institute for Government think tank’s expert on public inquiries, said there was a “reasonable chance” that Mr Barclay will be forced to upgrade the inquiry to a statutory one.

She told The Independent that the case had similarities with the government’s inquiry into serial killer Harold Shipman, which was set up as a non-statutory inquiry but was changed following a judicial review.

When will the inquiry begin?

The Department of Health and Social Care said on Friday that it will appoint a chair and publish the inquiry’s proposed terms of reference “in due course”.

“Small Boats”, then the “NHS”. Does “Crime” lead this week’s grid?

Is Alison Hernandez on stand-by and on side?

Can she deliver a police force that will follow up “all reasonable lines of enquiry” to solve crimes that are reported to them? – Owl

Braverman set to launch crime blitz in reset after Cabinet infighting over small boats

Hugo Gye inews.co.uk 

Suella Braverman is preparing to launch a crime crackdown in a drive to get the Home Office back on track after an eruption of damaging infighting.

The Home Secretary is set to announce that police must follow up “all reasonable lines of enquiry” to solve crimes that are reported to them.

The move, which will particularly cover offences such as the theft of cars and mobile phones which often go unpunished, comes after a period of turbulence in the Home Office.

An attempt to promote the Government’s policy on preventing asylum seekers from crossing the English Channel in dangerous small boats ended in farce earlier this month when dozens of migrants had to be evacuated from a barge where they were staying after legionella was discovered on board days after their arrival.

There are widespread reports of disagreements between Ms Braverman, department officials, and the immigration minister Robert Jenrick who is a close ally of Rishi Sunak.

Growing numbers of Conservative MPs want the Home Secretary to be fired in a reshuffle expected in the coming weeks, although her allies insist she remains indispensable as a leading figure from the right of the party within the Cabinet.

The Home Office is poised to issue new guidance to police which will specify that they are expected to investigate every crime after concerns that officers are ignoring potential evidence such as mobile phone tracking data. In London, as many as 98 per cent of phone thefts go unsolved.

Ms Braverman said in comments first reported by the Sunday Telegraph: “All victims of theft deserve more from the police and justice system than simply a crime number, and they should expect all reasonable lines of enquiry should be followed up.”

A senior Home Office source told i that the new policy was made possible by an increase in the overall number of officers and a reduction in other obligations such as responding to calls of mental health emergencies. The source said: “Now that we have record levels of police we have the resources to do this, and we’ve also lessened the burden of bureaucracy and red tape on officers.”

Government insiders are understood to be concerned about dysfunction in the department amid a failure to cut the number small boats arrivals significantly. “The whole thing resembles a circular firing squad,” a minister told the Sunday Times.

And Tory MPs have reacted with anger to claims that Home Office officials are told not to interrogate asylum seekers over sensitive details of their past, or to turn down their claim if they are found to have lied.

New Eris symptoms and warnings as Covid cases continue to rise

As Covid cases continue to rise, health experts are advising people to stay vigilant and take precautions if they suspect they might have the virus. Recent data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reveals an increase in cases, prompting concerns.

Suruchi Sharma Diwan www.inyourarea.co.uk

According to the new figures released by released by UKHSA, 10.8 individuals per 100,000 of the population were diagnosed with the virus during the week ending on August 14. This represents an increase from 9.3 cases per 100,000 reported as of July 29.

Additionally, one in seven cases throughout the nation have been linked to the newly identified Eris variant, as instances of the virus surge across various age groups. As the transmission continues, medical experts have outlined several symptoms to be vigilant about.

The primary ones resemble the widely reported Omicron symptoms, including a sore throat, runny nose, blocked nose, sneezing, non-phlegmy cough, headache, phlegmy cough, hoarse voice, muscle discomfort and changes in sense of smell. However, shortness of breath, loss of smell and fever are no longer the predominant symptoms.

Instead, there are now three additional symptoms to be attentive to – diarrhea, skin rashes and eye irritation, as reported by New Scientist. The news comes as a health expert warned that Brits could face a new round of Covid jabs if Eris is shown to be resistant to the current vaccine, reported the Mirror.

Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter’s medical school, said: “It’s too early to say if this strain is more of a pathologic virus at the moment. I was first aware of new cases being reported about four weeks ago. This is not a UK-specific strain, there have been cases all around the world.”

He urged Brits to keep buildings well-ventilated and said masks may need to come back out if cases continue to rise. “People aren’t testing as much now and our guard is down because it’s summer,” he said.

“It’s important that people who are vulnerable get their vaccines if they haven’t already. We’re not in complete and total darkness this time – the old vaccine will still work, but if it’s found not to be giving the same coverage then it will need to be modified and given out again.”

According to Dr Pankhania, an expert in disease control and public health, it remains vital for individuals to stay current with their vaccinations. He noted that only time will reveal whether the latest vaccine will offer protection against Eris.

He said: “As new variants like this emerge we need to constantly keep up to date with modifying the vaccines to mirror them. This will be a forever ongoing process.

“The most recent vaccine was to combat the Omicron variant which is no longer in circulation. People need to understand what’s said one week may change the next – that is the nature of biology.”

Black hole in Town Hall budgets rises to £5bn

A black hole in local authority budgets continues to grow, a BBC investigation reveals, prompting fears some will not be able to provide basic services.

[Many councils have continued to take risks on commercial investments to increase their income. E.g. Somerset Council bought more than £136m worth of retail property since the start of the pandemic, including a B&Q in Ayr and a Wickes in Birmingham.]

By Pilar Tomas and Paul Lynch www.bbc.co.uk

The average council now faces a £33m predicted deficit by 2025-26 – a rise of 60% from £20m two years ago.

Unison said the situation meant some councils would not be able to offer the “legal minimum of care” next year.

The government said decisions on the funding beyond the next financial year had not yet been made.

The BBC’s Shared Data Unit surveyed 190 upper-tier authorities in the UK to find out the extent of the financial difficulties facing town halls, which provide services from adult social care to bin collections and pothole repairs.

It revealed council chiefs expect to be £5.2bn short of balancing the books by April 2026 even after making £2.5bn of planned cuts.

At least £467m will be stripped from adult care services, which include elderly care homes, respite centres and support services for people with disabilities.

This year, councils are closing leisure centres, reducing care packages and raising fees for services like waste collection and parking in order to break even.

Unison’s head of local government Mike Short said town halls were in the “direst of states”.

“This is not a sustainable situation,” he said.

“Local authorities simply don’t have the funds to provide even statutory services.”

Councillor Shaun Davies, who chairs the Local Government Association (LGA), said inflation, the introduction of the National Living Wage, energy costs and increasing demand for services were adding “billions of extra costs just to keep services standing still”.

‘Everyone is horrified’

Gateshead Leisure Centre was opened in 1981 by Queen Elizabeth and featured a pool, a soft play and a gym, as well as badminton and basketball courts.

But in November 2022, Gateshead Council recommended closing it, claiming it had no other choice “after government cuts”.

The centre, which had more than 480,000 visits a year and served an area with high levels of deprivation, closed in July. A community bid is being put together to raise £40,000 and take over the site – but so far it has raised £5,000.

Mental health worker Layla Barclay, 39, from Bensham, led the campaign to keep it open.

“Everyone is just horrified it’s actually come to this,” she said. “There is a lot of anger towards the council. We just feel that they didn’t come to the community until it was too late.”

A pool has existed at the Alexandra Road site since 1941 and Wendy Arkle, 64, remembers first using it in the late 1960s as part of a Brownies swimming gala.

“There is just this huge void now,” she said.

‘Unprecedented’ savings

Our investigation found on top of cuts, town hall chiefs are expected to use up £1.1bn of reserves to balance the books this year.

Bradford Council said the authority was using reserves at an “unprecedented level” while Leicester City Council said it was going to run out during the next financial year.

Several councils have called for financial support from the government. Among them Slough, Croydon, Thurrock, Kensington and Chelsea, and newly created Cumberland and Westmorland and Furness councils will share around £393m in government funding this year.

Thurrock declared bankruptcy in December 2022 after a series of failed solar farm investments saw the council run up a £500m deficit – one of the largest ever reported for a council of its size.

Slough was also forced to effectively declare bankruptcy after borrowing more than £700m to buy land and properties.

The £51.8m being given to Kensington and Chelsea is to help pay the compensation due to the survivors and first responders of the Grenfell Tower tragedy. In a statement, the council said it had “healthy finances” and had frozen council tax this year.

Meanwhile other large councils have indicated being in financial distress.

Birmingham City Council, Europe’s largest local authority, halted all non-essential spending in June after announcing it was facing a bill for a £760m unequal pay claim.

The £51m of savings being made at Shropshire amount to a fifth of its overall budget this year – the highest proportion for any council in the UK.

A spokesman for the council said its financial position had been compounded by its “rural nature and sparse population,” which it said made it “more expensive to provide services like social care”.

Councils are funded through a mix of council tax, business rates, income from services like parking and social housing rent, as well as money from the government known as the Revenue Support Grant.

That funding declined by nearly a third between 2010 and 2021, according to the Public Accounts Committee, which found council income was £8.4bn lower in real terms than it had been a decade before.

Its chair Meg Hillier said the BBC study showed councils were at a “tipping point” where “only so many more savings” could be made.

Ms Hillier, the Labour MP for Hackney South and Shoreditch, said: “These findings should have the dashboard flashing red across the board for the Government.”

Despite high profile failures, many councils have continued to take risks on commercial investments to increase their income.

A Freedom of Information request by the BBC found Somerset Council had bought more than £136m worth of retail property since the start of the pandemic, including a B&Q in Ayr and a Wickes in Birmingham.

Analysis by Alex Forsyth, BBC Political Correspondent

Stories about pressure on council budgets may not seem new. Local authorities were hit hard during the period of austerity.

The government has made more money available to councils in recent years, but rising prices and the cost of delivering services for which there’s growing demand means budgets remain squeezed. This research shows the future looks bleak for some authorities who have already cut back on what they offer local communities.

Questions have been raised over investment decisions some councils have made, but beyond that there’s a wider call for a rethink of the way local government is funded, to try and break what seems to be a cycle of pressure on the services on which so many people rely.

Disability care cuts

Neil Crouch, from Harlow in Essex, has motor conversion disorder, severe arthritis and suffers from kidney disease.

Essex County Council, which is set to save £36m this year, cut the 48 hours of weekly funded social care he received down to 42, and removed his eligibility for respite care.

Previously, he was allowed two funded weeks a year at a centre that provides holidays for people with disabilities.

“It’s such a shame,” said Neil, who is becoming increasingly immobile and relies on carers and his elderly parents for support. “It helps so much to have that respite care.

“My mum and dad are both in the mid seventies now, and it’s getting hard for them. It’s not an easy process to look for after somebody with a disability.”

Neil, who said many others like him are suffering from having their respite eligibility removed, is urging councils to rethink such cuts.

“They have holidays,” he said. “Because we are disabled does it mean we’re not entitled?”

Essex County Council said, while it could not comment on individual cases, it still offered “significant support” to people needing respite care in the area.

Currently, councils discover how much money they are going to receive from the government one year at a time.

The LGA has repeatedly called on the government to change the way local authorities are funded. It has said multi-year settlements would give councils more clarity to plan effectively.

A plan to allow councils to retain 75% of the business rates they collect instead of the current 50% was paused indefinitely in 2021.

A Department of Levelling Up Housing and Communities spokesman said that, as no decision on council funding levels would be taken until the Spending Review next year the predicted deficit figures for 2025-26 were “unsupported”.

He said the government had pledged to make £4.7bn available for the adult social care system in England in 2024-25 and confirmed there would be an increase in the Revenue Support Grant councils receive.

The Scottish and Welsh governments said they had increased resources for councils this financial year. The government of Northern Ireland declined to comment.

Additional reporting: Lauren Woodhead