House prices: Young and low paid ‘priced out’ of tourist areas

Young and low paid workers in tourist hotspots are increasingly being priced out of homes, new analysis has shown.

www.bbc.co.uk

House prices rose up to three times faster in some rural and coastal areas compared to the national average in July, Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures have revealed.

North Devon has seen a rise of 22.5%, while the UK average rose by 8%.

A lack of affordable homes could be contributing to hospitality struggling to fill vacancies, the ONS said.

The average cost of rent in the south-west of England rose by 2.6% in the year leading to August, more than double the 1.2% increase for the UK as a whole.

The ONS said the growth in demand for rental properties “appears to be exceeding supply”.

It added the fall in supply of letting was most widespread in the South West, East and West Midlands.

‘Immense anxiety’

The ONS said: “Rising house prices and private rents mean that some workers are at risk of being priced out of living in rural and coastal areas, contributing to skill shortages in the tourism and hospitality industries that their local economies rely on.”

One couple from Barnstaple say they have been looking for a new home for five months with no success.

Sarah-Jane and Lauren Tolley have three weeks to find somewhere to live after being asked to leave by their current landlady through a no-fault eviction.

Section 21 notices allow landlords to evict renters without a reason after their fixed-term tenancy period ends.

Sarah-Jane explained two years ago they “genuinely had a choice” of where to live, but now are “in a position where we have to take whatever we can get”.

She said the “anxiety is immense” for them both and they were struggling to sleep over fear of being made homeless.

“The pressure that you feel in your chest is just heart-wrenching to think that you potentially might not have a home,” Mrs Tolley added.

The average UK house price was £256,000 in July 2021 – £19,000 higher than a year earlier.

Other rural and coastal areas with house prices rising much above the UK average are Conwy in North Wales (25.0%) and Richmondshire in the Yorkshire Dales (21.4%), the ONS figures show.

ONS house prices statistics

By contrast, house prices in the City of London borough fell by just over 10%.

Nathan Emerson, CEO of estate agent body Propertymark, said the coronavirus pandemic had created a “perfect storm” of housing problems in coastal and rural areas.

He cited the movement of people from urban centres to the countryside, shortage of housing stock, high demand for homes and increases in prices caused by a lack of supply.

“More importantly, we are in a position where that vein will continue for a period of time,” Mr Emerson added.

‘Losing our community’

Emma Hookaway, from Braunton in Devon, launched a Facebook group and campaign for the local community’s access to housing, after also being told she must leave her rental home.

She explained it was “nearly impossible” to find somewhere to rent, with people being increasingly priced out of the market.

Ms Hookaway also described the situation as a perfect storm caused by Covid, with more and more people moving to north Devon.

She argued the area was “losing our real sense of community” with locals unable to compete with the prices those moving in could afford.

“I don’t at the moment feel like my children will be able to afford to come back and move into the area,” Ms Hookaway added.

An open letter to Michael Gove

An open letter to Michael Gove, Secretary of State  for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, from a Correspondent:

Dear Secretary of State, 

Amongst your many new responsibilities you have been given the unenviable task of building 300,000 homes a year with the remit that voters in Tory constituencies continue to vote Tory and not liberal democrat. Also, are you aware that in my part of the world it was an independent who was runner-up twice to the conservative in the last national elections and my local council Independent led?

 This is in response to the previous local Tory regime who “built, built, built”.

You will never reconcile your goals until we, who live in these constituencies, trust that there is democracy and openness in planning, the planning system itself, those who administer it and then those who vote on the planning applications. An Englishman’s home is his castle, large sums of money are invested. There must be a democratic process if any development occurs nearby. The answer is not to seriously curtail local input. 

I am very pleased that the government now is considering that the 1.1 million homes awarded planning permission, but not yet built, may be subject to a land tax. This will ease the housebuilding problem. I believe that this issue was the main cause of the shortage of housing, not the present planning system. The present system is by no means perfect but the suggested changes of Robert Jenrick were not the answer. 

To add to your problems we in Devon and Cornwall have the added difficulty of seeing many of our permanent dwellings bought as second homes and holiday lets. This results in a lack of affordable homes for our local youngsters, inflated house prices, no long term rentals available and serious loss of community. No widow should have to buy a flat for her daughter who can afford to rent but there are no long term rentals available. As she said “I can’t have my daughter homeless”. 

I cannot understand why a dwelling built as a Holiday Let needs planning permission to become a permanent dwelling and yet a permanent dwelling can become a second home without any planning restrictions. Surely this is now the time to change this.

To many of us it is immoral that “The Times” could report that in the last decade more homes became second homes than were built. Grade 1 agricultural land has been sacrificed for a new town in our district which is unacceptable. To add insult to injury the town of circa 5,000 population which was started 10 years ago still lacks a viable town centre with shops.

Why don’t we  trust the planning system? 

Is it that the National Planning Framework is fundamentally flawed? I accept that sustainable development is at the heart of the NPPF but there are safeguards in place to improve the environment and our heritage. The problem relates to the many ambiguous words in the NPPF such as:

“significant; in the best interests; give weight to; harm; conserve and enhance”

This gives tremendous powers to the planners and councillors. A balance has to be struck and weight given between the different policies by the planners but the experience in East Devon is that the deciding factor is always “economic benefit” or “housing need” (in spite of a 5 year land supply).

 For example there was an application for 2 houses in the conservation area of a saxon village, adjacent to 10 listed buildings and 45 metres from the Grade 1 listed church.  This site of great heritage significance was validated with no Historic Impact Assessment as required in the NPPF. The officers were repeatedly made aware of the extreme importance of the site by Historic England’s three comments on the planning portal. Of particular concern was that the orientation of the proposed buildings were at right angles to the historic landscape. These comments were simply brushed aside. The application was contrary to many of the newly adopted local neighbourhood plan policies -number of bedrooms specified in NP; materials; density; design; respecting heritage assets. This contentious application was decided by officers under delegated power and approved. The reason given was the need for housing although East Devon at that time had a 5 year land supply.

So, what about democracy and the planning process? Many towns and villages in East Devon have an adopted Neighbourhood Plan which is a very democratic way of finding locals’ views on issues in their neighbourhood and then voting on them. Some councils and developers also consult on proposed planning matters.

Why then is it widely thought to be a charade? Following a consultation regarding the proposed location of a school it is amazing that Devon County Council still put forward a planning application for a 150 housing development and school in Ottery St. Mary which was contrary to a) the Ottery St Mary Neighbourhood Plan and b) contrary to the result of their own DCC consultation. But of course their reasoning was:

“this needs to be balanced against the benefits of the solution proposed” 

and

“however, in general planning is concerned with land use in the public interest. “

Developers are encouraged to consult. This is exactly what Burrington Estates did in Clyst St. Mary. The first public consultation included, amongst many other dwellings,  14 traditional houses adjoining the houses next to the site. This was supported by the majority of the community.

When the outline hybrid Planning Application was submitted to East Devon Planners these had increased to almost 60 flats which, after objections, have now been reduced to four blocks of 40 flats. Quite an increase as these flats will now overlook the pre-existing houses. In addition 39 more homes have received outline planning permission since the consultation.  

As another correspondent wrote:

“ What this community was originally shown and found acceptable at a Public Consultation bears no resemblance to what is now being proposed!”

Yes, the developers think the present planning system needs revision. Yes, the public also thinks the planning system needs revision. But you must remember that if you wish people to vote conservative you must provide convincing arguments. The 300,000 houses a year target has been question many times. Please tell us in detail where this number comes from. Do something about second homes. Make sure the land is released which has planning permission and developers are sitting on. Make sure our environment and heritage is not sacrificed for the nebulous “economic benefit”, “public interest” or “exceptional circumstances”.

A change in the electoral system is needed

Last week I found myself citing Confucius’s famous curse, “May you live in interesting times”. This week I have been struck by a more modern saying: “I don’t mind the despair, it’s the hope that kills me”.

Paul Arnott www.sidmouthherald.co.uk

Its origin has been attributed to any number of sources, from John Cleese to Nick Hornby, and I have heard it said many times at football matches, especially ones involving England penalty shoot outs. In that context its meaning couldn’t be clearer – in essence, can’t we just take the defeat, ref, and not bother with pretending we can win one of these.

Wherever it came from, this was an expression that haunted my day only this Monday. Along the south coast in Brighton at the Labour party conference, a motion had been put forward by the membership to direct the party towards enacting electoral reform, eg proportional representation.

My naïve heart fluttered with hope. Could this be it at last? Could the centre/centre-left (ie non-Johnson) sector of British politics be about to get its act together? Because ever since I left school in 1979, and the divisive Conservative hegemony all the way from then till 1997, I have only ever longed for one thing in politics – government from the centre.

Of course, old cynics say that those who stand in the middle of the road are bound to get run over, but that’s where I am, and I believe the vast majority of British people are too. We want people to make a success of their lives, to have the freedom to make wealth if they wish, but we also want a kind state which supports education, our environment and our health. Not too much to ask really.

Yet at the moment in the blue corner we have a Conservative party bent on the covert privatisation of the NHS and in the red corner, or at least that represented by the ongoing Momentum influence, we have unelectable fantasy fiscal policies.

So how does the centre get the representation it wants and the country needs? The answer, as ever, lies in our broken electoral system of first past the post (FPP). Even in the polarised Brexit election of 2019, Boris Johnson, on a 67.3% turnout, only won 43.6% of the popular vote, yet governs with a thumping majority. More than 56% did not want to see him in Downing Street at all.

Now this is not his fault; he had to fight on the rules set out for him by our daft unwritten constitution, but as we look around the looming chaos this week, it is clear that he is not up to the job. (FPP has previously favoured Labour too).

To their immense credit, the vast majority of Labour constituencies finally realised that the current system is now little more than a recipe for eternal Conservative rule. One modernising speaker in favour of the motion on Monday was Jake Bonetta from Honiton, who sits within our Democratic Alliance group at East Devon District Council.

So there I was, on Monday afternoon, allowing hope to seep into this battered, nearly sixty-year-old heart. There was a real chance this time. The motion, calling for a Labour government to replace first past the post with a form of PR, had come from more than 150 constituency Labour parties (CLPs). It was also the second most popular issue for the conference.

The drama heightened when a show of hands in the conference hall was not conclusive and it went to a card vote. This showed that very nearly 80% of the CLP votes backed the motion. But all hope was dashed when the votes from affiliates – almost entirely comprising unions – came in. 95% opposed the motion, and this meant that by Labour maths nearly 58% were against.

Hope United 0 Dinosaur Union Leaders 1. A tragedy, but champagne all round in Downing Street.

The Sun Says it!

From petrol panic to M25 protests there’s a sense of utter shambles across Boris Johnson’s Government…

www.thesun.co.uk

IS anyone actually in charge in Downing Street?

Is there a proper strategy for quelling the petrol panic? For ending the insane queues, the forecourt fist-fights, the siphoning of fuel from parked cars? For getting stranded key workers to their hospitals, care homes or schools?……………..

Planning applications validated by EDDC for week beginning 13 September

East Devon reports rise in Covid cases

Covid figures continue to fall throughout most of Devon and remain well below the national average – although East Devon has reported an increase in cases.

www.exmouthjournal.co.uk 

In the week up to Sunday 19 September, the average rate of infection across all of Devon’s councils was 265 per 100,000 people, down from 295 the week before.

In the Devon County Council area, which excludes Plymouth and Torbay, the most recent stats show an infection rate of 233 per 100,000 a fall of 20 from the previous week.

In contrast, the average infection rate across the country is 313 per 100,000 of the population. However, this, too, has dropped from 337 the previous week.

The only council areas to report a rise in cases in the county were East Devon and West Devon. 

The former recorded 356 cases, 14 [or four per cent] more than the previous week. The infection rate in East Devon is now 240 per 100,000 people.

West Devon’s cases spiked, with 152 new infections, 42 [or 38 per cent] more than the previous week. The case rate in the district is now 271 per 100,000 of the population.

Mid Devon now has the lowest infection rate in the county, with 168 per 100,000 of the population infected. Cases in the district dropped by almost a third (30 per cent) – 55 cases – in the most recent weekly data. The area recorded 152 new cases.

Plymouth registered 747 new cases, 77 [or nine per cent] fewer than in the previous week. The rate of infection in the city is now 284 per 100,000 of the population.

It was similar in Torbay. Its 392 new cases (288 per 100,000 of the population) is a nine per cent drop on the previous week. 

High infection rates in August meant both Devon and Cornwall were given extra support – called ‘enhanced status’ for five weeks. It means extra testing and measures such as making children at secondary school or college continuing to have to wear face coverings in communal areas. 

However, it was announced this week that special measures to combat rising numbers of covid cases in Devon are unlikely to be extended. Devon County Council’s director of public health says it is unlikely Devon’s status as a coronavirus enhanced response area will continue into October.

Nevertheless, fears remain that cases could rise this winter, with the potential of some restrictions being reimposed. 

The decline in infection rates in Devon has continued to translate into a reduction in people being admitted to hospital with covid. The latest figures [to Tuesday 21 September] show that across Devon, 98 people are in hospital as a result of covid, 30 fewer than the previous week.

Of these, 12 patients are at Derriford, 28 are at the RD&E, 16 in Torbay, while 12 are being cared for at North Devon District Hospital.

Ten of the patients in hospital with covid are on mechanical ventilation beds, down from 14.

Deaths have fallen in Devon in the most recent seven-day period (up to and including Sunday 19 September). Fifteen people died within 28 days of a positive covid test, 14 fewer than the previous week.

Eleven people died in the Devon County Council area, which excludes Plymouth and Torbay.  In Plymouth, three people lost their lives with covid, whilst one death was recorded in Torbay.

The total number of people in Devon who have died of covid since the pandemic began is now 1,198.

Eighty-seven per cent of people aged 16 and above have had their first dose of a vaccine in the Devon County Council area, which excludes Plymouth and Torbay, with 82 per cent receiving both doses.

In Plymouth, 84 percent have had one dose, while 77 per cent have had both.

In Torbay, 86 per cent have received one dose, while 79 per cent have had both jabs.

This means that vaccination rates in Devon are slightly behind the rest of the UK.  Ninety per cent of people aged 16 and above have had one dose, while 82 per cent have had both jabs.

The UK’s vaccination drive will continue this autumn winter as the NHS starts rolling out booster shots to the over-50s, younger adults with health conditions and frontline health and care workers.

There was yet another big moment for Margaret Keenan, 91, from Coventry this week as she received her first vaccine booster shot. Ms Keenan became the first person in the world to have a Pfizer jab when she received the vaccine in December of last year. The first man to receive a covid jab, William Shakespeare, has since died, but did not have covid.

Seaside towns in Cornwall and Devon decimated by rent shortage

Seaside resorts in Cornwall and Devon have been hit the hardest by the property shortage this year, data has shown.

Tianna Corbin www.devonlive.com

Compared to the summer of 2019, the number of properties by the sea available for long-term rent has fallen by more than 75%, while competition has increased 345%.

Property website Rightmove compared the available rental stock in June and July 2021 with June and July 2019.

Their analysis showed that in Cornwall, the number of available properties by the sea fell by 72%, with competition up 345%.

In North Devon the number of available properties fell by 80%, with demand up 292%.

In West Devon, the demand had risen 264%, while the amount of properties available had fallen by 76%.

Rightmove’s Director of Property Data, Tim Bannister said: ” Landlords in the typical tourist destinations around Britain have been chasing the huge surge in demand for holiday lets this summer, which has led to a temporary drop in the stock available for permanent tenants.”

He continued: “As the summer holidays are coming to an end, agents are now reporting more landlords turning their attention to longer-term tenants as a more secure and stable option for the rest of the year and into 2022.

“The value of a good tenant should not be underestimated, and with the competition for rental properties in these areas so high right now, it could be a good time for landlords to take stock and consider their best longer-term option.”

Don’t panic Captain Mainwaring

Could Boris Johnson’s government pass the “able to run a whelk stall” test?

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, sparked anger when he claimed industry leaders were responsible for the chaos, despite the government having admitted to a lack of lorry drivers.

Army could be called in as half of local petrol stations out of fuel

www.independent.co.uk

More than half of all non-motorway petrol stations have run dry after a weekend of panic-buying by spooked motorists, forcing ministers to consider putting the army on notice to drive tankers to forecourts.

The government has suspended competition laws to allow fuel companies to co-ordinate deliveries, and Boris Johnson is set to decide on Monday whether to send in soldiers to ease the crisis.

The Petrol Retailers Association reported alarming shortages among its independent members as oil giant BP warned that almost a third of its sites had no supplies.

Government pleas for drivers to stop filling their cars “when they don’t need it” fell on deaf ears as long queues formed at forecourts, operators rationed supplies – and police were called to one scuffle in London.

With Christmas just three months away, shoppers were also warned of turkey shortages, while toy sellers report delays and higher prices shipping goods into Brexit Britain.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng announced at 9pm on Sunday that petrol firms are temporarily exempt from the Competition Act 1998. Officials said the “Downstream Oil Protocol” would make it easier for firms to share information and prioritise delivery of fuel to parts of the country most in need.

Brian Madderson, the PRA’s chairman, revealed a survey of its members, who make up the majority of the UK’s 8,000-odd petrol stations.

“They serve the main roads, the rural areas, the urban roads, and anywhere between 50 per cent and 90 per cent of their forecourts are currently dry – and those that aren’t dry are partly dry and running out soon,” he told the BBC.

“One of them mentioned to me that yesterday they had a 500 per cent increase in demand compared to a week ago, which is quite extraordinary.”

BP, which operates 1,200 petrol stations, said: “With the intense demand seen over the past two days, we estimate that around 30 per cent of sites in this network do not currently have either of the main grades of fuel.”

Earlier, Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, sparked anger when he claimed industy leaders were responsible for the chaos, despite the government having admitted to a lack of lorry drivers. He was accused of a “disgraceful attack” on hard-pressed hauliers and of “shamefully passing the buck” for the queues.

The row blew up after The Mail on Sunday quoted a government source claiming the Road Haulage Association (RHA) is “entirely responsible for this panic and chaos”.

The transport secretary backed the claim, saying: “There was a meeting which took place about 10 days ago, a private meeting, in which one of the haulage associations decided to leak the details to media.

“And that has created, as we have seen, quite a large degree of concern as people naturally react to those things.”

Calling the leak “irresponsible”, Mr Shapps told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “The good news is there is plenty of fuel. The bad news is, if everyone carries on buying it when they don’t need it, then we will continue to have queues.”

But the RHA hit back quickly, pointing out its managing director Rod McKenzie had not even been at the meeting where a BP executive had discussed stock levels.

“He was not, as the government source claimed, “aware of the comments” and certainly did not “weaponise” them in subsequent TV interviews,” a statement said.

“Indeed he repeatedly stressed the need not to panic buy and that there were adequate fuel stocks.

“The RHA believes this disgraceful attack on a member of its staff is an attempt to divert attention away from their recent handling of the driver shortage crisis.”

Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrat business spokesperson, said: “Grant Shapps is shamefully passing the buck for the government’s own failures.

“The Conservatives have repeatedly ignored calls from businesses to address the shortage of drivers. It is a bit rich for ministers to now blame the public and the road haulage industry for the mess we find ourselves in.”

Mr Shapps’s comments came after the announcement of emergency visas for foreign lorry drivers to come to the UK to ease the crisis was dismissed as a damp squib.

As expected, the offer will be made to 5,000 HGV drivers – plus 5,500 poultry workers – but the visas will run out on Christmas Eve, triggering criticism they are too little, too late.

Keir Starmer suggested 100,000 foreign drivers are needed – the RHA estimate of the shortfall – saying: “We are going to have to do that. We have to issue enough visas to cover the number of drivers that we need.”

The Labour leader said: I’m astonished the government, knowing the situation, is not acting today. The prime minister needs to say today what he is going to do.”

Meanwhile, a poultry association said big firms have already scaled back production of turkeys for the festive season, because they would not have enough staff to for more orders.

Kate Martin, chairwoman of the Traditional Farm Fresh Turkey Association, said: “It’s looking like there is a national shortage of turkeys when we’re talking about supermarket shelves, rather than buying direct from your farm.”

Footage circulated on social media showed two men in helmets tussling with each other at a petrol station in north London, before the police were called to the scene.

A man was arrested on suspicion of assault and taken into custody, but no injuries were reported.

Cladding crisis: ten builders have made more money since Grenfell than their companies pledged for safety works

Ten top executives and shareholders at Britain’s biggest housebuilders have personally pocketed more money since Grenfell than their firms have set aside to fix the cladding crisis. The bosses and owners have made a total of £708 million in dividends, share sales and pay over three years, £65 million more than their companies have allocated to fix dangerous homes they have built.

Martina Lees http://www.thetimes.co.uk 

Barratt, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Berkeley, Bellway, Redrow and Vistry have set aside £643 million for fire safety over the past three years. The figure is about 4 per cent of their profits over that period and a fraction of the estimated £15 billion — and counting — that it will cost to make all flats in the UK safe. The seven construction giants have posted £15.1 billion in profits since 2017, when the Grenfell fire in west London fire killed 72 people and exposed a nationwide building safety scandal.

The findings will add pressure on the government — and the newly appointed housing secretary Michael Gove — to increase industry levies and make companies pay for repairs where homes breached safety rules at the time.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” said Stephen McPartland, a Conservative MP leading a backbench rebellion to protect flat owners from fire-safety costs. “It shows the big developers are not taking the issue seriously. It’s imperative that those responsible actually pay to resolve this. Leaseholders don’t have the funds and never will have the funds to make their buildings safe.”

Clive Betts, chairman of the housing, communities and local government select committee, said he was “shocked” at the figures. “This makes the case absolutely for a significant tax and/or levy on companies who ought to be collectively made to pay for the failings of the industry over the years. If they have built flawed, dangerous buildings, they should simply put them right.”

To those who have been living with flammable cladding on their building for the past three years, who are struggling with the soaring costs of waking watches, insurance and life-changing bills for repair works, the figures are incendiary.

This month about a thousand leaseholders, who are among an estimated 700,000 people who are still trapped in unsafe flats and up to three million people who are struggling to sell, marched on parliament to protest about the quality of their homes and the bills they have received to fix defects. The sun was shining, but the mood was bleak.

“Michael Gove, we want justice,” they chanted. “The system isn’t broken, it was built this way,” said Karim Mussilhy, who lost his uncle in the Grenfell Tower fire, and criticised the “cosy relationships [of] our leaders . . . with those responsible for killing our families.”

Hayley Tillotson, the first-known leaseholder to go bankrupt because of the crisis, waved the placard “Bankrupt and broke, leasehold is a joke”. Other signs said “Paid for a home, got a nightmare Taylor Wimpey”; “How many Grenfells will it take?”; “Lives before profits”; and “Make those responsible pay, not the victims”.

One of those victims, Ritu Saha, who co-founded the UK Cladding Action Group after flammable cladding was found on her Taylor Wimpey flat, said: “To now find that they value the lives of thousands of the innocent victims far less than the bank balances of their CEOs and shareholders makes us feel incredibly angry, and even more determined than ever to make sure they are held to account.”

The construction industry is paying for a fraction of repairs, leaving owners and taxpayers to foot the bill. In February the government announced two levies for fire safety. A blanket levy on housebuilders with profits of over £25 million is expected to raise up to £200 million a year over the next decade, while a gateway levy will tax developers that apply for building regulations approval on some new high-rise schemes. Ministers have allocated £5.1 billion in taxpayers’ grants to reclad unsafe tall blocks.

It is not enough, according to Sir Peter Bottomley, the longest-serving MP. “There is thought to be an estimated gap of £10 billion where leaseholders would in theory have to pay. They haven’t got the money. Some will lose their homes and they will look to those who have made money from housebuilding with anger,” he said.

A landmark House of Lords report in 2016 described the housebuilding industry as having “all the characteristics of an oligopoly”. Since then housebuilder profits have been boosted by the taxpayer-funded Help to Buy scheme, which accounted for a third of total sales at the seven housebuilders since 2017. And over the past year a strong stock market rally — fuelled by the pandemic stamp duty holiday — dramatically inflated the value of bosses’ shares. At Taylor Wimpey and Bellway share prices are up about 70 per cent since last September. Redrow’s stock price is up more than 90 per cent — increasing the value of founder Steve Morgan’s stake by nearly £200 million in a year.

Their second windfall was an explosion in dividends. Ten years ago the seven giants paid £38.1 million in dividends. Their latest results show dividends of £846 million — and over the past three years they made total payouts of more than £5.3 billion.

Earlier this year Sajid Javid, the health secretary and former chancellor, called on the Competition and Markets Authority to investigate an industry “dominated by just a few large operators” with a “stranglehold on supply”. The seven companies we analysed built 257,636 homes since 2017 — 41 per cent per cent of the total supply since 2017.

The housing ministry said: “We are making sure industry is held to account for the wrongs of the past by contributing to the cost of safety works — so far half the private sector high-rise buildings with unsafe [Grenfell-type] ACM cladding have been remediated without passing costs on to leaseholders or taxpayers. The Building Safety Bill will legally require building owners to prove they have tried all routes to cover the cost of essential safety works, while our new levy and tax will apply to developers.”

Lucy Powell, Labour’s shadow housing secretary, wants to go further and has called for a “proper levy”. “Developers racking up huge profits, for their companies and themselves, while innocent leaseholders are trapped in unsafe, unsellable homes should be ashamed,” she said.

Steve Day, 40, who faces a £40,000 bill for fire risks at his Barratt flat in east London, was “disgusted” by the figures. Day has drawn up a law with experts that would make companies pay for building homes that breached regulations at the time, a proposal that the government is now seriously considering.

‘A bit of a mystery’: why hospital admissions for Covid in England are going down

In early September, outbreak modelling for the government’s Sage advisers showed Covid hospitalisations had the potential to soar. If people rushed back to work and resumed all the socialising they had put on hold, the number of daily admissions in England could peak at 7,000 within six weeks. It was, in effect, a worst-case scenario, barring a dramatic waning of immunity or a troublesome new variant.

Ian Sample www.theguardian.com 

The optimistic scenario looked very different. Assuming a more gradual return to normality, the modelling had daily Covid hospitalisations rising slowly and slightly, topping out at nearly 2,000, before falling again in November. Now, even that looks overly gloomy. Over the past fortnight, hospitalisations have fallen in England, even as schools and offices reopened.

Mismatches between the modelling and the true course of the epidemic have caused confusion throughout the Covid crisis. The models are not predictions of what will happen. They are what the computers churn out when presented with a “what if?”. In this case, what if R (the reproduction number of the epidemic) reaches 1.1? And what if – as Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, would say – people “tear the pants out of it” and push R to 1.5? That would mean, on average, every two people infected go on to infect three more.

Sage expected hospitalisations in England to peak somewhere near the lower range, namely 2,000 a day, but no sooner was the modelling complete than hospitalisations began to fall. The decline was unexpected. What it suggests is that – for now – the effect of unlocking on fuelling the epidemic is more than offset by the combination of people’s behaviour and immunity, whether from vaccination or infection.

“Those are two very powerful forces. Each by itself is perfectly capable of making the number of cases or hospitalisations go up or down, and they are basically fighting each other right now,” said Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University.

On Friday, the Office for National Statistics reported a fall in infection rates in England for the second week running, with one in 90 now estimated to test positive for Covid. Elsewhere in the UK, rates remain stable but high.

According to Prof Graham Medley, chair of the Sage modelling subgroup, Spi-M, while infections and admissions have drifted down in the past couple of weeks, little has changed over the larger timeframe of the past 10 weeks. “This is unexpected,” he said. “There must be a balance between the increasing immunity from infection and vaccination, and the amount of contact, but how they exactly balance to keep R roughly at 1 is a bit of a mystery.”

It may be that vaccines are more effective at preventing transmission than studies – often based on symptomatic patients – suggest. If that is the case, Woolhouse said, immunity may be playing a larger role in suppressing the epidemic than thought. After a sharp rise in Scotland, cases appear to be falling back down, without any obvious change in behaviour, he added. “It’s a watershed moment. This is the first time in the history of the UK’s epidemic that we’ve had a sustained decline in cases in the absence of a lockdown or not far short of it,” he said. “We’ve never seen that before, so clearly something is fundamentally different, and the fundamental difference for me is the buildup of herd immunity.”

That would be excellent news, particularly if the rest of the UK follows suit. On Friday, the R number for England was revised to 0.8 to 1, with the number of new infections estimated to be shrinking at 1% to 3% a day. The difficulty is that, with a lot of virus still around, a manageable situation could become challenging very fast. “If there is an uptick then we need to react to that quickly. If this does go wrong, the NHS will be in trouble very quickly,” Woolhouse warned.

As Medley pointed out, the country has not rushed back to “life-before-Covid”. What happens next is still as murky as ever. “We are still a long way from normal levels of contact, so there is still the possibility of an increase in transmission and hospitalisations, but the past couple of months gives a lot of hope,” he said.

We may have reached another turning point

Tim Spector’s symptom tracker app, which has a track record of identifying turning points in the evolution of the pandemic across UK a couple of weeks in advance of confirmed cases, is now showing a slow down in the rate at which the infection is falling.

More on Lib Dems hold Exe Valley 

Some observations to make.

In 2019 turnout was 36% in this by-election it dropped to 26%.

In 2019 the Conservatives got 43% of the vote in a two way contest, this time it dropped to 32%. 

In 2015 general District Council elections, the turnout was 77% and the Conservatives won the ward with 52% of the vote in a two way contest.

So the Conservative proportion of the vote has consistently fallen from 52% through 32% to 26% since 2015. 

Not exactly a vote of confidence in the Tory “build, build, build” policies for East Devon. – Owl

Lib Dems hold Exe Valley ward in East Devon District Council by-election

Philippa Davies sidmouth.nub.news

The Liberal Democrats have held on to a seat on East Devon District Council after a closely fought by-election for the Exe Valley ward.

Jamie Kemp received 190 votes, seeing off Conservative Kevin Wraight who won 164 and Labour’s candidate, Mike Daniell, who earned 161. One voter made their opinion well known by spoiling their ballot paper, drawing sad faces next to each candidate’s’ name.

The turnout was 26 per cent.

Mr Kemp is expected to join the council’s ruling coalition known as the Democratic Alliance, a combination of the East Devon Alliance, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Labour and some, but not all, Independents.

He picks up the reins from fellow Liberal Democrat Fabian King who stepped down as a councillor in July to focus on his business, which he said had been affected by Covid.

Speaking after the result Mr Kemp said: “I’m over the moon. It’s been a fantastic campaign, the other candidates have worked really hard. It’s a win really for everybody in the Exe Valley and I look forward to representing them.

“And, yes, now my wife probably won’t moan at me quite so much – and the children won’t be as annoyed with me!

“I look forward to starting work with the other councillors and getting the job done.”

‘A good campaign with three strong candidates’

Conservative candidate Kevin Wraight said: “I’m disappointed, obviously. I wanted to win but it’s a fair fight – it’s been a good campaign and three extremely good, strong candidates.

“I think the Exe Valley has been very well served by an election that’s been so close.”

Labour candidate Mike Daniell was also pleased with the result: “I’m more than chuffed with it.

“We’ve given everyone a run for their money to the point that this has become a very well-fought campaign.

“I think Labour’s given everyone such a good kick up the arse as it were that they’ve gone out and really campaigned hard, so I congratulate Jamie on a very hard-fought success.”

The defeated candidates might not have to wait too long for another attempt with the next full district council elections expected to go ahead in 18 months.

What’s the political make-up of East Devon District Council?

For now, the make-up of the council is now as follows:

Conservatives – 22

East Devon Alliance – 13

Independents – 14

Liberal Democrats – 7

Green Party – 2

Labour – 2

The Exe Valley vote was the district council’s third by-election in recent months, with polls held in May and July this year.

The July by-elections returned some surprises as Conservative Alasdair Bruce took Feniton, previously held by an Independent, and teenager Jake Bonetta won Honiton St Michael’s.

The 19-year old took the seat previously held by the Liberal Democrats to become the first Labour councillor on the district council in more than 20 years. Since his election formerly independent councillor Paul Millar (Exmouth Halsdon) has joined Labour, giving the party two seats.

Climate change: Construction companies told to stop knocking down buildings

Britain’s top engineers are urging the government to stop buildings being demolished.

By Roger Harrabin www.bbc.co.uk

Making bricks and steel creates vast amounts of CO2, with cement alone causing 8% of global emissions.

They say the construction industry should where possible re-use buildings, employ more recycled material, and use machinery powered by clean fuels.

They are concerned about “embodied emissions”, which is the CO2 emitted when buildings and materials are made..

They believe that unlike carbon from aircraft, vehicles and gas boilers, embodied emissions are not in people’s minds.

They suspect few people realise there’s a carbon impact from, for instance, building a home extension.

The report, steered by the Royal Academy of Engineering, said a new way of thinking is needed before planning new homes, factories, roads and bridges.

Prof Rebecca Lunn from Strathclyde University, one of the report’s authors, said: “Our biggest failure is that we build buildings, then we knock them down and throw them away. We must stop doing this.”

Fellow author, Mike Crook, adjunct professor at Imperial College, challenged the government’s £27bn road-building programme because of the embodied emissions created to obtain the concrete and tarmac, as well as the use of very polluting machines to construct the highways.

Prof Crook told BBC News: “We have to radically revise the way we look at things.

“The most important thing is to maximise the use of existing road infrastructure by using smart motorways to maximise every inch of tarmac.”

Speaking in a personal capacity, he added that the decision on Heathrow expansion should be re-visited following stronger warnings from climate scientists.

Prof Crook said questions should be asked whether projects such as HS2 – with its massive embodied carbon – will really benefit future generations.

media captionClimate change: Should we be demolishing buildings?

The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers’ Dr Julie Godefroy urged the government to set targets for the construction industry to move swiftly towards zero carbon, including embodied emissions.

She observed: “We have to avoid demolition and new-build. Often most of the material in an existing building is underground – so we should seek to use existing foundations.”

media captionAbout 88kg of explosives were used to reduce the tower to 10,000 tonnes of debris

A spokesperson for the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) responded to a request from BBC News for a comment by stating that the UK was a “world leader in tackling climate change”.

They added: “We are committed to reducing emissions from the construction sector, and have set up the Construct Zero programme to support the industry to achieve their climate commitments.”

The spokesperson said that the government, earlier this year, had set out their Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy, which was “the government’s comprehensive assessment” of how industry, including the construction sector, could decarbonise in line with the government’s net-zero plans.

Also, they explained, ministers this week had announced £220 million of funding to help UK industry reduce their carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency.

Refurb over rebuild

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) estimates that 35% of the lifecycle carbon from a typical office development is emitted before the building is even opened. The figure for residential premises is 51%.

It wants the government to change the VAT rules which can make it cheaper to rebuild than to refurbish a standing building.

Its managing editor Will Hurst said: “This staggering fact has only been properly grasped in the construction industry relatively recently. We’ve got to stop mindlessly pulling buildings down.”

Covid impact on life expectancy in Devon shown

Life expectancy has risen in Devon, despite the impact of the pandemic causing stalling and falling levels across much of the UK.

Edward Oldfield www.devonlive.com

Figures released by the Officer for National Statistics (ONS) show that for men in the area, life expectancy at birth was 80.7 years in 2018 to 2020 – up from 80.4 years in 2015 to 2017 – a rise of 14 weeks.

For women, it rose by 22.4 weeks, taking life expectancy at birth from 84.2 years in 2015 to 2017 to 84.6 years in 2018 to 2020, although the rise was not seen in all parts of the area.

Life expectancy in Torbay has fallen – life expectancy at birth for men was 78.6 years in 2018 to 2020, down from 78.7 years in 2015 to 2017.

For women, life expectancy at birth fell from 82.8 years in 2015 to 2017 to 82.5 years in 2018 to 2020.

Life expectancy also fell for men in Plymouth, down from 79.0 years in 2015 to 2017 to 78.8 years in 2018 to 2020.

However, for women, it rose from 82.2 years in 2015 to 2017, to 82.5 years in 2018 to 2020.

The figures released this morning by the ONS are the first to include higher death rates seen in 2020 due to coronavirus.

Life expectancy at birth in the UK in 2018 to 2020 was 79.0 years for men and 82.9 years for women.

Compared to 2015 to 2017, that was seven weeks less for men, and almost no change for women (a slight increase of 0.5 weeks).

Pamela Cobb, Centre for Ageing and Demography at the ONS, said the coronavirus pandemic led to a greater number of deaths than normal in 2020, leading to virtually no improvement in life expectancy for women and life expectancy for men falling back to levels reported for 2012 to 2014.

She said: “Life expectancy has increased in the UK over the last 40 years, albeit at a slower pace in the last decade.

“This is the first time we have seen a decline when comparing non-overlapping time periods since the series began in the early 1980s.

“These estimates rely on the assumption that current levels of mortality, which are unusually high, will continue for the rest of someone’s life.

“Once the coronavirus pandemic has ended and its consequences for future mortality are known, it is possible that life expectancy will return to an improving trend in the future.”

Life expectancy for those aged 65 years was another 18.5 years for men and 21.0 years for women.

These estimates are very similar to those for 2015 to 2017, with a slight decline of a week for men and an increase of 3.1 weeks for women.

Male life expectancy between 2018 and 2020 was highest in the South East (80.6 years) and lowest in Scotland (76.8 years), with a similar pattern for women, with the highest levels in London (84.3 years) and lowest in Scotland (81.0 years).

The impact of reduced life expectancy – like the impact of the pandemic – varied across the country.

There were significant reductions in male life expectancy at birth in England (7.8 weeks) and Scotland (11.0 weeks) in 2018 to 2020 compared with 2015 to 2017.

In Wales, male and female life expectancy at birth saw non-significant reductions between the same periods.

There were large falls in male life expectancy at birth in the North East (16.7 weeks) and Yorkshire and The Humber (16.2 weeks).

For women, it significantly reduced in the West Midlands (9.9 weeks).

Meanwhile, the South West saw a significant increase in life expectancy for women (17.7 weeks) and an increase in male life expectancy (5.7 weeks).

The continued improvement in life expectancy observed in the South West coincides with lower excess deaths and lower mortality involving Covid-19,compared with other regions of England.

See online DevonLive article for detailed data tabulation.

Woman ordered to apologise for saving trees

“Woman” in this case is Councillor Jess Bailey, and this is leafy West End West Hill and Aylesbeare ward. Since this is next to Ottery St Mary, Owl is surprised the monitoring officer did not order her to be “Tarred and Feathered”!

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

A councillor has been ordered to make a public apology for stopping trees being cut down.

Cllr Jess Bailey, who represents West Hill and Aylesbeare on East Devon District Council, had stood on a public verge under an oak and beech tree and then parked her car under them in January 2021 when a developer attempted to cut them down.

Her actions protected the trees until a Council tree officer attended and served a Tree Preservation Order on them.

But property developer Robert Compton had complained about her actions, and a standards investigation carried out in Cllr Bailey’s actions upheld a complaint that she did not conduct herself in a manner or behave in such a way so as to give a reasonable person the impression that you have brought the office or the Council into disrepute.

As a result of not following the police request to leave the scene, Cllr Bailey has been directed to make a public apology – but she has said that she was doing what she thought was right and in the interests of the community she was elected to represent.

The incident happened on Saturday, January 16, 2021, during England’s third national lockdown, and because she introduced herself when she arrived as the councillor for West Hill, it was accepted that she was acting as a councillor and not a private individual at the time.

Jess Bailey in front of the protection oak and beech tree iN West Hill

Jess Bailey in front of the protection oak and beech tree in West Hill (Image: Jess Bailey)

Cllr Bailey said: “I started to receive worried phone calls from residents, I quickly went to Oak Road, West Hill to see what was happening. The woodland village of West Hill has been blighted by developers pre-emptively felling trees over the years and I am always concerned about this controversial practice. It particularly worried me that this felling was happening on a Saturday during lockdown.

“A large birch had already been felled and an oak and beech were soon to be removed. These formed part of a highly prized avenue of trees formally recognised as a ‘valued view’ by the community in the Ottery St Mary and West Hill Neighbourhood Plan, a planning document which has been voted on by residents.”

She added: “Despite my best efforts and a series of frantic phone calls to Council officials I could not get a tree officer to attend at the time to protect the trees. The Council has in the past declined to protect these very trees with a TPO on the basis that they were not under immediate threat. Yet on the day when the trees were under immediate threat no one from the Council was available to protect them.

“I was at a loss to know what to do and therefore felt I had to take direct action to save the trees. I was determined to save the wonderful trees and so I stood on the public verge underneath them which prevented further work. I was not alone in being concerned about what was happening – other residents were equally dismayed.

“I have the utmost respect for the police who I’m certain were only trying to do their best in the difficult situation that was lockdown. They were however unclear on their power to send me home – which was not surprising given the constantly changing rules and laws at this time. I believed (and still believe) that I was lawfully present within lockdown rules.

“When talking to the police I felt hugely conflicted between staying to protect the trees and leaving as the police indicated I should. After a while of engaging and explaining their views to me the police became more insistent that I should leave or I would be issued with a Covid fine if I did not. I duly left and went home without any fine being issued. When I left, my car remained parked for the weekend on the verge, still under the trees.”

The oak and beech tree in West Hill protected by Cllr Jess Bailey

The oak and beech tree in West Hill protected by Cllr Jess Bailey (Image: Jess Bailey)

Cllr Bailey added: “As a result of my actions the trees are still standing, and had I not taken the action I did – including not leaving immediately on the arrival of the police – I have no doubt the trees in question, and possibly others, would have been removed.

“It is incredibly common for developers to suddenly fell beautiful and mature trees to make way for development and in most instances no one can do anything about it. This time because of my intervention I am pleased that a mature oak and beech that form part of a beautiful avenue of trees were retained.”

The report of East Devon District Council’s monitoring officer dismissed the majority of the complaints made by Mr Compton, saying that taking videos / photos of the scene is not a breach of the code of conduct and would not be generally unacceptable, nor was requesting a TPO.

And he said that while unpalatable to some and of course to the complainant, he did not consider that her behaviour, where she stood under one of the trees to prevent it being felled and organised for a car to be parked under the tree for the same purpose, from an objective standard, was sufficient to amount to causing disrepute to the role of councillor or to the Council.

The report said: “The land in question is public highway and had the complainant wished to prevent anyone from exercising their lawful right to ‘use’ the highway when the works were to be undertaken, then there are mechanisms to secure a temporary suspension of those rights which would have precluded anyone from being able to stop the works in the way that happened.”

But the report did conclude that as a councillor, not leaving when requested to do so by the Police, who were concerned from a Covid and unauthorised gatherings perspective, particularly given the sensitivities and concerns around Covid, does not set a good example to others in terms of respecting authority and would reduce public confidence in the role of councillor.

It said: “I consider that this conduct and behaviour is such that it would give a reasonable person the impression that Cllr Bailey has brought her office into disrepute and as such is a breach of the code of conduct.”

Cllr Bailey said: “I am disappointed that the Monitoring Officer has found me to have ‘brought the office of councillor into disrepute’, when trying to protect trees. I was doing what I thought was right and in the interests of the community I have been elected to represent.”

Housing crisis ‘pricing people out’ in Devon

Members of Barnstaple Town Council are urging the Government to help alleviate the current housing crisis in the region.

Lewis Clarke www.devonlive.com

Councillor Peter Leaver put forward a motion which was approved at the council’s meeting declaring a crisis in the rented housing market in the area.

He told the meeting that the situation has become ‘heartbreaking’ in North Devon with stories of people being made homeless.

Cllr Leaver said: “Parishes across North Devon including Bideford and Ilfracombe have declared a crisis in the rented housing market in their areas.

“I’m asking that we do the same here in solidarity with them.

“I’m sure that all of us who have been on Facebook or who watch the television have heard the heartbreaking stories of families being made homeless in North Devon through no fault of their own. This is because of the change in private renting.”

He said private rented accommodation was now being used for holiday lets, meaning as tenancies come to an end, people had nowhere to move into.

“The blame for this is being talked about; faults in the planning system and the council not getting its act together, although our district council is doing a lot about this,” Cllr Leaver added.

“It has to be said North Devon has over-delivered on housing in the three years up to January 2021 by one and a half times what is expected.

“All of the major housing allocations in the Local Plan now have at least outline planning consent.

“This is not a matter of building ourselves out of a problem, there are other measures which need to be taken into account.

“This motion asks the town council to recognise this crisis in North Devon which affects everybody, not just the coastal communities but towns as well.

“Secondly, we write to our MP and government to propose some straightforward measures which can be taken very quickly to help alleviate the problems happening this autumn as we move into winter for people likely to lose their houses.”

Cllr Ian Roome backed the motion, saying: “North Devon needs more social housing to rent.

“The increase of people claiming Universal Credit is 114 per cent in England but in Devon 144 per cent.

“In North Devon it is 188 per cent of over 50s claiming.

“It’s because homelessness is not only about homes, but also about wages.

“We pay less in North Devon than anywhere else.

“The house prices are sky high compared to anywhere else. We need more social housing for rent, not to buy.

“People can’t get a mortgage, and people are being priced out of the housing market.”

How to get your Covid booster dose in East Devon

The first Covid-19 booster vaccinations have been administered in Devon.

Philippa Davies sidmouth.nub.news

The jabs are being offered to people most at risk from Covid-19 who have already had two doses of a vaccine. In line with advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, they will receive either one dose of the Pfizer vaccine or half a dose of the Moderna vaccine.

The priority list includes:

• people aged 50 and over

• residents of care homes for older adults

• frontline health and social care workers

• people aged 16 and over with a health condition that puts them at high risk of getting seriously ill from Covid-19

• carers aged 16 and over

• people aged 16 and over who live with someone who is more likely to get infections (such as someone who has HIV, has had a transplant or is having certain treatments for cancer, lupus or rheumatoid arthritis)

People who are pregnant and in one of the eligible groups can also get a booster dose.

How can I get my booster?

The NHS will contact all those who are eligible for the jab by letter, text or email. Most will receive an invitation to book their booster dose through the National Booking Service within the next three weeks, and the jab will be given at least six months after they had their second dose. People are being urged not to contact the NHS for their booster dose before then.

The nearest mass vaccination site for people in East Devon will be the Greendale Centre on the A3052. The jabs will also be offered at pharmacies and GP practices, and there will be pop-up vaccine clinics, as with the initial vaccination programme.

Vaccine teams will visit care homes and offer both staff and residents the vaccine at the same time.

Third doses for people who are severely immunosuppressed

A third dose is being offered to people over 12 who were severely immunosuppressed at the time of their first or second dose, including those with leukaemia, advanced HIV and recent organ transplants. This offer is separate to the booster programme.

These people may not have a full immune response to vaccination and therefore may be less protected than the wider population. These patients are being identified through their GP or consultant and invited to book their third dose. There has been high take-up of this offer in Devon.

Lord Bethell and Matt Hancock to hand over private messages – Good Law Project

A good day in court.

goodlawproject.org

For months, Government has been refusing to hand over evidence in our challenge concerning Abingdon Health, the testing company awarded £85 million worth of contracts without competition. Yesterday we took Government to Court to fight for this evidence – and we had a good day. 

The Judge ordered the search of Matt Hancock’s WhatsApp messages and personal email accounts. We believe this is the first time a Judge has ordered a Minister, or ex-minister, to hand over their personal WhatsApps and text messages.

In fact, the Judge seemed to share our view more generally that Government’s explanations for why they haven’t recovered information from Ministers’ devices simply do not stack up, and he ruled as follows:

  • Lord Bethell must provide a Witness Statement to the Court to explain – once and for all – what happened to his phone.
  • Government needs to provide a Witness Statement to the Court explaining how they are going to ensure they recover all the necessary data from Bethell’s phone.
  • In addition to coughing up Lord Bethell’s private emails, Government must also trawl Matt Hancock’s personal emails and WhatsApps for relevant information as to how these contracts came to be awarded with no competition. 

We will now get to see previously hidden messages from the Ministers involved in awarding these lucrative contracts. We will also issue an application against Professor Sir John Bell in respect of his documents (to cover WhatsApp, University of Oxford emails and personal emails). He has previously refused to share any of his records, despite his hugely significant role in the contract awards. 

Will these documents shed more light on the murky goings on in the awarding of these contracts? Contracts which Ministers overruled their own legal advisors to sign, leaving taxpayers with a multi-million pound bill when it turned out the tests didn’t even work.

The Judge remarked yesterday that Good Law Project is “holding the government – correctly – to high standards of conduct, both in the awards of contracts and generally” – and we will continue to do so. 

We will be publishing more extraordinary revelations later this week.

Exe Valley by-election today

In the 2019 election the Exe Valley ward was contested by only two candidate who polled as follows:

Fabian KIng Liberal Democrat    378 votes

Kevin Wraight, Conservative      289 votes

This time Labour has joined the fray. So much then for all the talk about forming a “progressive alliance” to counter the dominance of the Conservative Party under the first past the post system at the next general election!

This what Martin Shaw wrote on on the bias that the first past the post “winner takes all” system produces between votes cast and seats gained in his “Seaton and Colyton Matters blog after this year’s County Council elections:

Analysis of the 6th May [County Council] election results shows the challenge facing the opposition in future elections in East Devon. The bottom line, reported here before, is that the Tories got 83.3 per cent of the seats for 43.8 per cent of the vote. The non-Conservative parties and Independents between them got 16.7 per cent of the seats for 56.2 per cent of the vote.

These figures make an overwhelming case for (1) proportional representation and (2), so long as we’ve got the First Past The Post system, a Progressive Alliance, if the opposition is to win under the existing system.

Indeed a serious worry emerges. The Tory share of the vote which gave them this majority of seats, 43.8, was 7.6 per cent higher than their vote in the EDDC elections of 2019 – when they lost control of the council for the first time. The Tory vote in 2019 was exceptionally low (the result of the pre-Brexit confusion), meaning that even with split opposition votes, they lost a lot of seats.

If the Tories consolidate their return to their normal 40-45 per cent range in 2021, the current progressive majority at EDDC will lose ground unless more serious steps are taken towards a Progressive Alliance strategy. See longer post here.

Candidates explain why they want your vote

Joe Ives – Local Democracy Reporter www.devonlive.com

Voters in Exe Valley, a ward in East Devon, will go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new representative for East Devon District Council.

The by-election was called following the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Fabian King in July, who said he was stepping down to focus on his business which had been affected by Covid.

The vote will be a three-horse race between Mike Daniel (Labour), Kevin Wraight (Conservatives) and Jamie Kemp (Liberal Democrats).

Polls will open at 7am on Thursday, September 23, and close at 10pm.

The three Exe Valley candidates have explained why they are standing, what they see as the most important issues in East Devon and in the Exe Valley in particular, and what they would like to do if elected.

Mike Daniel – Labour

1. Why are you standing?

“I’m standing for the same reason I think many candidates choose to, which is that I want to do more for the area I live in and feel that this is a great way to do so.

Beyond that I know I can bring a unique background as a district councillor in that I have years of experience working in local government as I currently work for Devon County Council as part of the highways department. This experience means I understand the quirks of local government from both sides and that I’ll be able to hit the ground running faster than others.”

2. What are the most important issues in East Devon and in Exe Valley in particular?

“Listening to fellow residents from across the ward over the last few weeks, there’s a real commonality in many of the issues raised, whether it be poor infrastructure, lack of affordable housing, or simply rubbish going uncollected, which is a sense that the area is forgotten or treated as a poor relation compared to other parts of East Devon.

“It was only a few weeks ago now that we all saw this in practice where the Conservative and Liberal Democrats on the planning committee by a majority forced an industrial digestate plant on our area against massive local opposition.”

3. What would you like to do if elected?

“Obviously there are big picture issues that I would like to get movement on such as making sure that the new local plan provides affordable, sustainable housing that the community needs and increased support for our more rural areas who suffer from being cut off in regards to both transport and broadband.

“But the most basic bread-on-the-table issue I want to resolve is that lack of feeling listened to that permeates the area by establishing a frequent series of community forums/councillor surgeries so that people can actually meet with their district councillor on a regular basis and not simply hoping a hidden-away email address is monitored, as is all too common.”

Kevin Wraight –Conservative

1. Why are you standing?

“I have been lucky to live in the Exe Valley for quite some time and now this opportunity has arisen. I want to be elected so that I can work for my neighbours and the area I love so much.

“I am already doing much for the community including working with Network Rail to put signs on the level crossing asking motorists to switch their engines off whilst waiting for trains to pass, which will help to keep the air quality as high as possible for the residents.”

2. What are the most important issues in East Devon and in Exe Valley in particular?

“Having spoken to many Exe Valley residents, I know that broadband is a big issue, especially in the outlying areas. This will be a major focus for me and has highlighted how important it is for homes and businesses to have fast, high-quality broadband connections. The covid pandemic has underlined this with many of us forced to work, study, carry out leisure activities and internet and shop from home.

“The environment is also of major importance to the community, we must fight to preserve it and do our bit towards reducing the effects of global warming in our valley.

“Our communications and infrastructure must be kept to a high standard. By this, I mean the roads, bus routes, footpaths and cycle lanes, and if elected I look forward to working as your [Exe Valley residents’] councillor on these issues, especially looking at ways to reduce the speed of vehicles through our villages which is an area of great concern to many residents. It isn’t about grand plans; I want to work on the day to day issues that can be changed.”

3. What would you like to do if elected?

“If I were to be successful I would begin working with our parish councils to draw up a list of priorities which I can carry forward on their behalf to East Devon District Council, but also to our county councillors and ultimately members of parliament – people I know and already work with. I can’t truly represent the Exe Valley unless I have input from the community and liaising with my neighbours will be my first priority.”

Jamie Kemp – Liberal Democrat

1. Why are you standing?

“I’m standing because I’ve lived in the heart of the Exe Valley for quite a few years now and I care about our communities. Too often, though, the needs of villages in the rural areas are just overlooked, particularly with the Exe Valley and its location – sort of being stuck up in the top corner of East Devon.

“I believe I can provide a voice to make sure that East Devon Council actually listens to the residents of the Exe Valley.

2. What are the most important issues in East Devon and in Exe Valley in particular?

“Obviously we’ve all gone through the pandemic and that’s been quite challenging, I think, for everybody. We face all kinds of uncertainties going forward and we need to maintain our essential services – it’s a definite priority.

“We also need to have proper control of the planning systems. There are too many developments now that are in the interests of a very small minority and not the residents of the Exe Valley – big anaerobic digestate plants and all that. They’re starting to cause issues across the Exe Valley with the scaling up of the industry – if I can call it an industry – and that’s something that’s really really important.”

3. What would you like to do if elected?

“If I’m elected on Thursday, I would like to repay the trust and expectation placed in me by speaking out fearlessly for the communities of the Exe Valley.

Speaking about the current coalition controlling East Devon District Council, Mr Kemp said: “I think the Democratic Alliance is a good thing. It leads to open discussions from different political backgrounds. Rather than fighting against one another, I think it’s very important that we work together.”