East Devon: Mixed views on July 19 lifting of Covid restrictions

If only Boris hadn’t dithered on imposing the first lockdown in March 2020. Remember the Cheltenham Festival…..

If only Boris hadn’t overruled scientific advice for a circuit breaker in September 2020. Remember the “Eat out to help out” August accelerator……

If only Boris hadn’t dithered on imposing the second lockdown until November 2020…..

If only Boris hadn’t let the cork out of the bottle over Christmas 2020. Remember the Alpha variant had started spreading in mid-December…..

If only Boris hadn’t dithered for 17 days before imposing travel ban from those travelling from India in May 2021. The Delta variant became the dominant strain in the UK around mid-May…..

Infection prevalence and incidence would be much lower, and we would be in a better position to open up the economy safely than we are right now.

With a history of being too slow to lockdown; too hasty to open up, why is Simon Jupp so convinced Boris has got it right this time? – Owl

Philippa Davies sidmouth.nub.news

Simon Jupp, East Devon MP; Paul Arnott district council leader; Steve Brown, director of public health, Devon

Simon Jupp, East Devon MP; Paul Arnott district council leader; Steve Brown, director of public health, Devon

East Devon MP Simon Jupp has backed the government’s plans to go ahead with the full easing of Covid restrictions set for July 19, despite rising numbers of cases in the constituency.

But the leader of East Devon District Council, Paul Arnott, has warned that it could be ‘an unwelcome infection accelerator’ that is being introduced too soon.

And Devon’s director of public health, Steve Brown, is urging people to remain cautious, and heed the Government’s guidelines on continuing to wear face coverings in some places.

In the seven days to 7 July, cases in East Devon rose by 64 per cent, climbing from 108 to 277. There are now more than 189 cases per 100,000 of the population.

Mr Simon Jupp said: “Cases here are still lower than the average for the UK. I don’t see any reason not to open up, as long as people follow personal and social responsibility and look after themselves.

“That involves getting the vaccine when it’s their turn, including the second dose and, also, if they choose to, wearing face coverings if applicable.”

“That’s what I’ll be doing. I’ll be taking it on a step-by -step, case-by-case basis to decide whether I want to wear a face mask in a certain scenario.”

“I think moving from mandated state intervention to a more personal responsibility – it’s your choice but you’ve got to be mindful of those around you – is exactly the right way to go.”

“I’m happy for the unlocking to take place next week. I don’t think we can call it “freedom day”, I don’t think that’s helpful as a narrative, but I do think that overall it’s a good thing for our area.”

“At some point, we have to open up. At some point, we have to have some semblance of normality.”

Mr Jupp praised the vaccine rollout locally and nationally and emphasised the importance of opening up fully for the economy.

He said: “We could be cautious forever about new variants that come forward and I don’t think our economy could stand it.”

District council leader urges ‘good sense and consideration’

However, the leader of East Devon District Council Paul Arnott (Democratic Alliance, and leader of the East Devon Alliance) is concerned about full reopening.

He said: “July 19 is destined to be an unwelcome infection accelerator unless people have the good sense and consideration for others to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing, as at present.

“In my view, with so many local people still at only a single jab [stage], this has come two months too soon and looks like a bid for ‘herd-immunity.’

“I suspect Devonians have more common sense than this and will continue to lead productive lives while continuing to exercise great caution.’

Director of public health: ‘We must continue to stop the spread’

Steve Brown, director of Public Health Devon, has urged people to remain cautious. He said: “There’s no question about us sitting back and doing nothing.”

“We need to take personal responsibility, remain cautious, and continue with the efforts we have made so far in helping to stop the spread.”

“I am pleased to hear clarification from our prime minister that the wearing of face coverings in crowded places – which would include public transport and any indoor space where there are other people – is still recommended, despite it no longer being a legal requirement.”

Petition: Get dark money out of UK politics

www.opendemocracy.net

To: Boris Johnson

  • Stop secrecy over political donations by increasing transparency over dark money donor groups, including so-called ‘unincorporated associations’
  • Keep restrictions to stop millionaire non-doms donating to political parties indefinitely
  • Increase fines for donors who break election laws
  • Accept the recommendations on dark money and transparency set out by the Committee on Standards in Public Life

At openDemocracy we’ve worked for years to expose the malign influence of ‘shadowy’ groups funnelling anonymous money into British politics. And now we’ve revealed that £2.6m has been funnelled to the Tory party via secretive campaign finance groups since Boris Johnson became prime minister.

The British government is proposing new election laws, but they have almost nothing to say about donations like these. So-called ‘unincorporated associations’ can be used to secretly channel money from donors who would never normally be eligible. And millionaires who are based in tax havens (so-called ‘non-doms’) will be able to fund British politics indefinitely.

The UK’s Committee on Standards in Public Life has warned that ‘unincorporated associations’ could be used as “a route for foreign money to influence UK elections”. In a hard-hitting report it’s called for major changes to how politics is funded.

If we’re going to protect our democracy we need to stop dodgy donors from buying political influence. We need to make sure a light is shone on ‘unincorporated associations’. And we need fines to be raised high enough to deter funders from breaking election law.

To do all that we need to show the UK government that the public won’t stand for secretive political donations harming our democracy. Will you take a moment to sign the petition telling the government to clean up UK politics [see link above]?

Neil Parish rebelled against aid cuts

Owl can publish something good about Neil Parish but not, sadly, about Simon Jupp

From Politico newsletter today: 


Those 24 Tory rebels in full: David Amess … Harriet Baldwin … Father of the House Peter Bottomley … Former Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley … Steve Brine … Rehman Chishti … Former Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb … Former Brexit Secretary David Davis … Defense committee Chairman Tobias Ellwood … Roger Gale … Former Deputy PM Damian Green … NI committee Chairman Simon Hoare … Neil Hudson … Former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt … Pauline Latham … Tim Loughton … Former PM Theresa May … Johnny Mercer … Andrew Mitchell … Women and equalities committee Chairwoman Caroline Nokes … Environment committee Chairman Neil Parish … Mark Pawsey … Bob Seely … Foreign affairs committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat.

This must be a First – Council Leader features in Literary Festival

Windrush – The Soul of a Ship – PAUL ARNOTT –  Budleigh Literary Festival 15 September 

budlitfest.org.uk 

It is rare for one vessel, so lyrically named, to carry the weight of such representation – hope, conflict, imperialism and shame. For three decades the Windrush was the maritime ‘Zelig’ of the twentieth century, playing different roles in the most turbulent years in modern times. Acclaimed filmmaker and Channel 4 producer, and now local politician, Paul Arnott digs into the gripping history of a ship, first designed by a Jewish shipbuilder in Hamburg, who played a role as varied as joy vessel for Nazis and prison ship for Jews, until she famously delivered the first migrants from the Caribbean to an unwelcoming Britain, before sinking off the Algerian coast in 1954. Hear the memories of people inextricably linked to this extraordinary merchant ship at the end of empires.

HOW MANY SHEDS CAN YOU BUY WITH THAT?

David Cameron was paid $1 million a year by Greensill, the FT’s Robert Smith and Jim Pickard reveal. He worked 25 days a year, so that’s the equivalent of £28,000 a day. Or to put it in terms Cameron might understand, he could buy one of his favorite £25,000 garden sheds every day he worked for Greensill, with three grand pocket change per day left over.

(From Politico newsletter)

Devon covid rates rise sharply

East Devon cases rise 64% in a week – Owl

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk 

But hospitalisation and deaths low

Covid infections have risen sharply across much of Devon, with Teignbridge’s rate more than tripling in the past week.

According to data for the week to Wednesday 7 July, Torbay has the region’s highest rate, doubling in a week to 474 cases, a rate of 348 per 100,000 people.

By comparison, the national rate is 312 after another 34,471 cases were recorded across the country.

At district level in Devon, Teignbridge’s rate grew most, with the number of people tessting postive this week more than tripling to 422 (315 per 100,000).

Plymouth’s rate also rose sharply – by more than 150 per cent, with 884 infections recorded in the week, a case rate of 337 per 100,000.

However, the number of infections fell slightly in Exeter and Torridge, the latter of which now has the lowest rate in the south of England at a district level, behind Thanet in Kent and the Isle of Wight.

Elsewhere, West Devon’s rate more than doubled to 117 cases per 100,000, whilst Mid, North and East Devon also recorded significant increases. However, all of these areas remain below the UK average.

Covid in-patients stays low

Despite cases increasing sharply across much of Devon, the number of people in hospital with covid remains very low.

The Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital confirmed  just three  covid patients according to  latest figures (up to Tuesday 6 July), compared to the peak of 128 patients on 24 November 2020.

Plymouth’s Derriford Hospital currently has seven patients, with none in Torbay. However, Torbay did see two patients with covid admitted on Saturday 3 July, the first since 12 April.

North Devon Hospital is currently caring for one patient who is on a mechanical ventilation bed.

It has now been more than two months since anyone died with covid in Devon. The last confirmed case was on Sunday 9 May.

Steve Brown, director of Public Health Devon, says people should remain cautious even though the prime minister has confirmed that the easing of almost all legal restrictions from  Monday 19 July. Face masks are still be advised in crowded spaces.

“There’s no question about us sitting back and doing nothing,” Mr Brown said. “We need to take personal responsibility, remain cautious, and continue with the efforts we have made so far in helping to stop the spread.”

He added: “I am pleased to hear clarification from our prime minister that the wearing of face coverings in crowded places – which would include public transport and any indoor space where there are other people – is still recommended, despite it no longer being a legal requirement.”

Jabs clocking up

The number of adults aged 18 or over who have received at least one dose of a vaccine has increased to almost 86 per cent in the Devon County Council area, 84 per cent  in Torbay and 81.2 per cent in Plymouth.

The proportion of people who are now fully vaccinated with both jabs is now 67 per cent in Devon, 70 per cent in Torbay and 61 per cent in Plymouth.

Planning applicatons validated by EDDC for week beginning 28 June

Message from Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, to NHS staff – 2 July

“We’re now on the road to recovery, and just as we start the monumental task of recovering NHS services, I want to give you what you need to recover from this difficult period, and make it as easy as possible for you to do your jobs.”

Sajid Javid – Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Department of Health and Social Care 2 July healthcareleaders.blog.gov.uk 

To my NHS colleagues,

The NHS is an institution that is close to my heart, and the hearts of so many people across the nation. It was there for the birth of my children, and cared for my father in his final days.

I feel a deep affection for the NHS, and the brilliant people who work there. As the first Secretary of State for Health from an ethnic minority, it’s a great privilege to be representing this diverse institution that represents the very best of modern Britain.

I was determined to get on the frontline and see this for myself. So my first visit as Secretary of State was to St Thomas’ Hospital and vaccination centre, to meet the doctors, nurses, porters, cleaners and volunteers who’ve contributed so much to our fight against this virus, and to our vaccination programme which has given us hope of a brighter future.

We’re now on the road to recovery, and just as we start the monumental task of recovering NHS services, I want to give you what you need to recover from this difficult period, and make it as easy as possible for you to do your jobs.

Just as we recover we must also reform. We are modernising the Mental Health Act to improve services for the most serious mental illnesses. We’ll also keep bolstering the foundations of our NHS. Primary care will continue to be central to our plans to level up the health of the nation, and we’ll continue to build more hospitals and make sure we bring even more people to the front line. Any proposal we bring forward will build on the spirit of integrated working you’ve embraced so enthusiastically, because we know we’re at our best when we work as one.

It’s so important to me that we work together to get this right, and I’m looking forward to meeting as many of you as I possibly can, and to hearing your views.

You’ve all done so much to support this country through this tough 18 months. I will do everything in my power to support the NHS, as we put this pandemic behind us and look ahead to the next chapter.

Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

Tories have unhealthy financial reliance on property developers, says report

The Conservatives have an “unhealthy financial reliance” on property developers, with more than a fifth of all donations to the party over the past decade coming from the residential property sector, a report by a leading anti-corruption group has said.

“Build, build, build” – Owl

Peter Walker www.theguardian.com 

While it could not be conclusively proven that government decisions were shaped by this flow of money, such a reliance on housing-based donations created “a real risk of aggregative corruption”, Transparency International said.

The report also highlighted serious concerns about a lack of information on lobbying by housing groups, saying that this, coupled with a rapid turnover of ministers and civil servants, added to the undue influence exerted by the sector.

In contrast, while private renters make up almost a fifth of all households in Britain, there was “a notable absence of tenants at the table” when decisions were made, making it less likely that bold solutions would be made to tackle the housing crisis.

The research, which Labour said illustrated the need for urgent reforms to donation and transparency rules, showed that between 2010 and 2020, the Conservatives received £60.8m in donations from individuals and companies related to substantial property interests. Of property-related donations to all parties, 80% went to the Tories.

Much of this came from a handful of leading donors, the report found. Over the period of 2015 to 2019, 10% of all donations received by the Tories came from just 10 property-linked sources.

The report noted: “While we have seen insufficient evidence to prove beyond reasonable doubt any direct quid pro quo arrangements of donations for decisions, this dependence creates a real risk of aggregative corruption, whereby the actions and judgments of ministers are incentivised by their party’s financial ties to interest groups in this policy area.”

The group also condemned information about lobbying efforts, saying the level of information provided “falls lamentably short of the mark” when measured against expected standards.

In just three years from 2017 to 2020, the research uncovered, ministers held 669 meetings with 894 different interest groups to discuss housing issues, but in more than 40% of cases departmental information described the subjects being discussed only as “housing” or “planning”.

The statutory register of consultant lobbyists gave additional information on only three of these 894 groups attending the meetings.

Another issue of concern highlighted in the report was the lack of “institutional knowledge” within the government given that in the last 20 years there have been 10 community secretaries or equivalent, and 18 housing ministers, with a similarly high turnover of civil service staff.

Duncan Hames, the policy director at Transparency International UK, said the Conservatives’ reliance on property interests was “of serious concern”, while information about lobbying efforts remained “woefully opaque”.

Anneliese Dodds, the Labour party chair, said the research showed “how the rules around transparency for lobbying ministers aren’t fit for purpose”. She added: “We need to know who is lobbying ministers, what they want from government and what is discussed when they meet.”

A Conservative spokesperson said: “Government policy is in no way influenced by the donations the party receives – they are entirely separate.”

Donations were publicly declared and fully legal, and such fundraising was “a legitimate part of the democratic process”, they said, adding: “The Conservative party is delivering on its manifesto commitments to deliver more homes, with new housing supply having risen to its highest levels for 30 years. Working with the housing industry is an essential part of getting new homes built and regenerating brownfield land.”

Ministry of Defence under fire for ‘inventing rules’ to sell wildlife haven

The Middlewick Ranges are an ecological marvel by the standards of 21st-century Britain. The army firing range near Colchester, Essex, has been untouched by a plough for nearly 200 years, allowing skylarks and nightingales to feast on the threatened invertebrates and insects that thrive in the rare acid grassland.

James Tapper www.theguardian.com 

Yet a plan to sell off the ranges to build more than 1,000 homes has prompted accusations from campaigners that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has rewritten environmental protection rules to suit its case.

Acid grassland – named after the acidic soil that supports fine grasses and lichens – has almost disappeared from England, and is protected under guidelines from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Planning rules allow developers to build on some types of rare land, including fens, wetland and woodland, so long as they offset the loss by creating replacements. Defra’s Biodiversity Metric allows them to calculate how to do that.

“Under the Defra metric, it says that the score is too high to allow development,” said Richard Martin, from the Save the Middlewick Ranges group. “They couldn’t use it, so they came up with their own one. It’s crazy.”

The MoD’s property arm, the Defence Infrastructure Organisation, agreed the use of a “bespoke metric” with Colchester borough council to push through outline permission to develop the 86 hectare (215-acre) site under the plan. Even worse, according to the campaigners, is how the MoD proposes to replace the acid grassland, by converting farmland nearby.

“They want to put sulphur into the land,” Martin said. “There’s a little brook that runs next to it and all the lands drain into that brook.

“And that flows into Colne Marshes, which is a site of special scientific interest. So you’re going to put sulphur in the rainwater that flows into a SSSI wildlife site.”

The campaigners have been supported by Essex Wildlife Trust, which calls Middlewick Ranges “a major ecological asset” with “precious habitats essential to nature’s recovery”, adding: “We cannot afford to lose them.”

The campaigns resulted in a planning inquiry into how the ranges were added to the local plan, which concluded its hearings earlier this year.

Rosie Pearson, a founder of the Community Planning Alliance, which has advised the campaigners, said: “From a biodiversity perspective, this should be ringing a jumbo alarm bell. The developers couldn’t do what they wanted using the official metric, so they made one up. For the rare species inhabiting the site this could be the death knell – unless the planning inspectorate recognises that what is being attempted is deeply flawed.”

Pearson said developers have been manipulating biodiversity offsetting, adding: “Skylarks are offered ‘offsite plots’ when their meadows are concreted over. Large swathes of ancient woodland have been described as ‘copses’. And arable land is largely dismissed as meaningless for wildlife in the metric.” She said ecological assessments should be done by an independent body, funded by developers, adding: “Local communities should be able to request a second opinion, also funded by the developer, if they have concerns about a report. And government proposals to provide better funding to local authorities for ecology services should be followed through.”

The MoD has defended its plans, saying 63% of the land would be reserved for green open space. It has yet to sell the site to a developer, who would still need planning permission, but if the plan is upheld, opposition would be limited to discussing which parts of the ranges could be built on.

There are more than 460 environmental campaigns across Great Britain according to the Community Planning Alliance, which is concerned that new planning rules – blamed by Tory activists for the Lib Dem victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-election last month – will make it harder for local groups to stop similar developments.

The MoD’s plans rely on a similar project to create acid grassland at the RSPB’s Minsmere reserve in Suffolk.

Adam Rowlands, the RSPB’s Suffolk area manager, who is not involved in Middlewick Ranges dispute, said that creating the acid grassland at Minsmere had taken about 10 years. “It was not an easy task,” he said. “There was quite an intensive period of establishment, scarifying the soils, sowing seed mixes. You can’t just rewild it, otherwise it will turn into scrubland.”

A spokesperson for Colchester borough council said: “Middlewick Ranges is allocated in the Emerging Local Plan for mixed use including housing, open space and community uses.

“The future of the ranges has yet to be finalised, as we continue to await the Local Plan Inspector’s report, but it will be important to ensure residents have an opportunity to comment if the site is included in the Plan.

“Future master planning of the site will need to be undertaken, which will include open space and increased tree-planting, to enhance the biodiversity value of the ranges for future generations of residents to enjoy.

“Whilst we are unable to comment on DIO’s specific plans for the sitethe council remains fully committed to preserving and enhancing all forms of biodiversity in the borough to the greatest extent possible.”

The MoD said: “We continue to work with the council to develop plans for the site, including working with experts to find innovative means to help secure biodiversity. The techniques will be thoroughly tested as part of the examination process.”

July 19: Boris Johnson offers freedom day with health warning – mixed messages?

Boris Johnson will urge people today not to return to life as normal after July 19 unless they want to risk restrictions being reimposed.

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor http://www.thetimes.co.uk

As he confirms that all remaining limits on social contact will be lifted in England a week today, the prime minister will emphasise that “caution is absolutely vital” in the face of rising infections.

Wales is to review its restrictions on Thursday and Scotland is due to lift some restrictions on July 19 and most on August 9.

Senior scientific advisers urged people yesterday to continue to work from home over the summer and not to be “overenthusiastic about social contact” because of the risk of thousands of hospital admissions a day.

Susan Hopkins, of Public Health England, said that no one could “ringingly endorse” the decision to lift all restrictions and the country had to be braced for them to return at short notice if hospital admissions rose too much.

Johnson has dropped claims that the end of restrictions is “irreversible” after scientists warned him that the decision to open up fully was a gamble that could go wrong.

The prime minister will strike a wary tone about life after July 19 as he marks the end of lockdown measures with a plea to carry on with many habits formed during the pandemic.

A government source said that “the best way to make sure we never go back is to be cautious”.

Johnson will say that England is “tantalisingly close to the final milestone in our road map out of lockdown, but the plan to restore our freedoms must come with a warning”.

While praising the success of the vaccination programme, which has “weakened” the link between infections and hospital admissions, he will caution that “the global pandemic is not over yet”.

He will say: “Cases will rise as we unlock, so as we confirm our plans today, our message will be clear. Caution is absolutely vital and we must all take responsibility so we don’t undo our progress, ensuring we continue to protect our NHS.”

Hopkins called the decision to end restrictions now a “fine balancing act”, given that a delay could allow more people to get vaccinated, but would risk pushing an exit wave into the autumn or winter and putting even more pressure on the NHS. “I don’t think we know the right answer,” she told Times Radio.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has said that cases could reach 100,000 a day and Hopkins said it was “possible” that this could result in 3,000 hospital admissions a day soon afterwards.

“It will depend on the behaviour that we as individuals and the population overall, do,” she said.

There were 31,772 new cases recorded yesterday. The most recent figures for England show 461 hospital admissions on Wednesday.

Hopkins said that January’s peak of 4,000 admissions a day was “three doubling times away from where we are now, and that it was six to eight weeks potentially, unless things change, and unless we keep the transmission rate down”. Vaccination had more than halved the proportion of cases that end up in hospital but there was still a “direct relationship” between the number of cases and pressure on the NHS, she said.

At present 62 per cent of patients in hospital are under 55 as vaccines protect the elderly. Hopkins said that while vaccination had been “highly successful at reducing hospitalisations, it is not 100 per cent effective”. She said now was “not a time to be over-enthusiastic about social contact”, telling people: “We need to be careful, to keep our distance, keep social contacts low, wear masks in enclosed spaces, despite them not being legally required after July 19.”

The government will drop the recommendation to work from home next week, with ministers insisting that it will be up to businesses to decide whether staff come to the office.

Hopkins said: “Over the next four to six weeks that needs to be very cautiously implemented by businesses to keep transmission down.” She advised: “If you are able to do your business effectively from home then . . . we should try our best to do that.”

Sir David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University, said that the proportion of people infected who ended up in hospital “has dropped a lot. It used to be in the second wave about one in ten. Now it’s about one in 40 because the cases are so much younger”.

But he told the BBC: “That would mean that a hundred thousand cases, if we got there, would be maybe 2,500 admissions a day. That’s very high.”

Spiegelhalter said that with younger people having shorter stays in wards “the actual numbers in hospital would be well below the second wave peak”.

Like it or not, rolling of the dice is under way already

It has always been, we know, a finely balanced decision (Tom Whipple writes). We are about to find out just how finely balanced. No one is pretending that the modelling accompanying England’s reopening, which is expected to be released today, will make for pleasant reading.

Of course, it never has. For six months the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has been predicting that there would be a huge exit wave in the summer. The difference is that where once such predictions were treated with derision — how could we have so many cases when nearly all adults are vaccinated? — they are now treated with fatalism.

When the models are published, the key insight will not so much be in its prediction of the size of the coming wave. Everyone knows it will be big. For those who are immuno-compromised, it is clear this summer will not be one of freedom. Instead, the insight will be in the decision-making process — about how much morbidity and mortality the government is prepared to stomach, and how certain it is that both will stay within “acceptable” limits.

As Boris Johnson prepares to formally announce the lifting of all English restrictions, modellers from Warwick, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial will have already told him how many daily Covid hospital admissions they expect. At the weekend we breached 500. A peak of 1,000 a day seems conservative; 2,000 does not seem inconceivable.

They will also have made it clear we are now rolling the dice. Many scientists vociferously oppose the nation’s acquiescence into mass infection. Others think that, with vaccination falling among the young, with the huge economic costs of social distancing, and with no plans to vaccinate children, it is our only option to reach herd immunity, and delaying opening simply delays deaths. But even that option becomes untenable if the NHS becomes overwhelmed.

In the modellers’ graphs there will be a “confidence interval”, showing the range of likely outcomes. How high will hospital admissions go? Four thousand a day was the figure that nearly toppled the NHS in January. With a backlog of other patients and an exhausted workforce, NHS leaders think even that might be too much.

Last week more than 100 scientists wrote a letter to The Lancet decrying England’s reopening plans as an unethical experiment. They predicted that it would burden the nation with long-Covid-related disability for a generation, create ideal conditions for a vaccine-escape variant, and needlessly cause hundreds, probably thousands, more deaths.

Those points are reasonable, even if some are arguable. But there is a corollary. If mass infection really is an experiment, it is one that has already begun. The relaxation on July 19 might push cases higher but our wave is well under way. If you don’t like 100,000 cases a day, it’s hard to see why 50,000 is acceptable.

If our only goal were to prevent Covid hospital cases, it is clear the best thing would be to reimpose lockdown and start vaccinating teenagers. For reasons of politics, logistics and national exhaustion, that seems highly unlikely.

What have I learned since shooting to fame? We need more compassion in public life | Jackie Weaver

Six months ago the video of a fractious meeting of the Handforth parish council propelled its attenders – myself included – into the spotlight. I’ve been on quite a journey ever since and while I have mostly enjoyed the ride, I can’t pretend it’s been devoid of bumps or bruises. I’ve tried to learn as much as I can from the rough and the smooth, the peaks and the troughs, and I felt like this was an opportune moment to share some of those lessons.

Jackie Weaver www.theguardian.com

First, the good stuff. I have met some amazing people – from the exotic world of showbusiness to the more familiar environment of local government. Making so many new acquaintances in a short period of time has made me a connoisseur of first and lasting impressions and I can say with confidence that it is people’s kindness, generosity and warmth, not their individual skills or achievements, that has stuck with me. These qualities are memorable because they are powerful. We are social creatures and it is through cooperation, collaboration and compassion that we achieve great things.

But while I have learned a great deal from the kindness and love of strangers, I have also become the unwitting target for trolls and bullies. I should stress that overwhelmingly the interactions I have with people online are positive, friendly and constructive but the abuse is, though infrequent, hard to ignore and impossible to forget. Much of it is sexist in nature – men who don’t like the idea that, as a certain parish councillor might have put it, I “have the authority” to speak on particular matters or share my views. I’ve been told on numerous occasions to shut up, pipe down or get lost. People sometimes comment on my appearance (as if it were relevant) or remind me that fame can be fleeting (as if I weren’t aware). One individual, who will have to remain anonymous, has taken to contacting me on a regular basis to tell me that they have seen through my facade to the calculating, toxic and manipulative individual that supposedly lies beneath.

In writing this, I acknowledge that the abuse I have received has neither been as relentless nor intimidating as that experienced by many women in the public eye, especially women of colour. But it has served as a salutary reminder that we must relentlessly defend the basic values of compassion, inclusion and cooperation: though the trolls may be few in number, their voices are loud and uncompromising. We must not allow this to become normal.

Which leads me to my recommendations for revitalising the soul of our body politic.

First, we have to tackle online abuse. The online safety bill that will soon be progressing through parliament couldbecome a landmark piece of legislation – a world first – in addressing this scourge. To be effective, it needs to significantly reduce the number and reach of anonymous social media accounts (the source of most misinformation and hate online) and enforce a new duty of care on social media sites towards their users. These platforms have, for too long, benefited from a laissez-faire system of governance that has allowed misinformation and abuse to spread with impunity. The government needs to catch up.

Second, we should substantially enhance the standards of behaviour expected of local and national politicians. Two quick and effective changes could help to make this happen. It should become the norm – enforced by legal action if necessary – that local councillors either resign or are removed from their post for a fixed period if they are found to have contravened their authority’s code of conduct. No such provision exists and, as I have documented before, this means that councillors found guilty of racism, sexism or homophobia can continue in their role. This unconscionable practice legitimises bad behaviour, low standards and poor governance. If we are to attract a wider demographic to stand in elections, we must redouble our efforts to make the environment they enter as safe as possible.

Further, I would like to see a law introduced to tackle lying in politics at every level. Compassion in Politics, for which I am an ambassador, is campaigning to make it illegal for politicians to wilfully and repeatedly lie to the public. Given the serious nature of their position and the responsibilities they have to the public, the least we can expect is that politicians will be honest, open and transparent.

Last, I think we should be looking to nurture an ethos of compassion, inclusion and kindness in every level of society, in every aspect of our economy, and in every layer of government. These are the values that have helped to save and protect lives through the Covid crisis and brightened the darkest of our days. We should bring compassion training into schools and workplaces and devolve more power, autonomy and resources to local communities. We cannot expect to resolve complicated problems such as pandemics, climate breakdown and inequality if we fight among ourselves. Take it from someone who has met many new people in the past few months – kindness and compassion are more likely to win you friends and influence than their opposites.

  • Jackie Weaver is chief officer of Cheshire Association of Local Councils and an ambassador of Compassion in Politics

Tory MP fears Boris Johnson will delay Covid restrictions needed after summer

Covid restrictions will probably need to be reimposed across England after summer but the government may again delay doing so, a Conservative MP helping lead a Commons inquiry into ministers’ handling of the pandemic has warned.

Aubrey Allegretti www.theguardian.com 

Dr Dan Poulter, who has also been working on the NHS frontline since the outbreak began, said “challenging mutations” of the virus would probably emerge and set back a “return to normality” until at least 2022.

Boris Johnson is expected to announce on Monday that most legal constraints will be scrapped from 19 July, as part of a pivot to telling people they must learn to live with the disease.

Poulter, a vice-chair of the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus, said there was “a sense of worry” about the full unlocking, particularly about the risk that many young people – most of whom are not yet fully vaccinated – could develop long Covid.

With the number of cases rising to levels not seen since January this year, he said a “greater pool of the virus” meant “a higher chance of mutation occurring” and a variant emerging that was much better at evading current vaccines.

Infections could soon reach 100,000 a day, the new health secretary, Sajid Javid, recently said – a substantially higher figure than the 68,053 recorded on 8 January 2021.

Layla Moran, the Lib Dem MP who chairs the APPG, also said she thought ministers had not learned crucial lessons and that her group – set up to scrutinise the government’s decisions and save lives – could be needed for another four years.

After it was set up last July, 73 MPs and peers from eight Westminster political parties came together to hold 25 oral evidence sessions and make more than 50 recommendations to ministers.

Moran said the government was “playing Russian roulette” by gambling on the outcome of the pandemic, and voiced concern that some form of lockdown might be needed in the autumn.

She said people could die unnecessarily if the unlocking turned out to have been “reckless”. “It pays to not assume you’ve got ahead of the virus, because it seems to always get a toehold at the moment that you think you’re on the path to beating it,” Moran said.

Her caution was echoed by Poulter, who said he anticipated a “challenging winter” with the combined pressures of Covid and flu. “The idea that we are fully done with restrictions, I would suggest, is unrealistic,” he said.

“It’s a matter of some concern when people are talking about a return to normality, when we have enough evidence from the last 18 months that we’re going to have to be living with the virus for a lot longer.”

Asked whether he was concerned the government could delay introducing tougher measures – as Johnson did last autumn, against the advice of his scientific advisers – Poulter said it was indeed an anxiety.

“As is inevitably the case with governments … going into reverse gear or changing direction is sometimes quite difficult,” he said. “But I hope that if the data and the evidence suggests that we need to reintroduce restrictions, which I fear it may well, that the government will listen to the chief medical officer and follow the data.”

Tory MPs disable NHS app to ‘protect their holidays’

“Stay home. Protect the holiday. Save your marriage.” was the slogan being banded around the Commons tea room.

By Flash Finance www.thelondoneconomic.com 

Conservative MPs are reportedly deleting the NHS app to circumvent instructions to self-isolate ahead of their holidays, according to The Times.

Concern over the effectiveness of the Track and Trace system was called into question this week as reports emerged that many people were disabling the Covid-19 app as alerts rise by 60 per cent.

Secretary of State for Transport, Grant Shapps, today confirmed the app would undergo changes to make allowances for the end to social distancing restrictions on 19 June.

“As our restrictions change, of course the app needs to change in line,” said Grant Shapps in an interview with the BBC this morning.

“I think the app is very important as one of the tools in our armoury – it is another way to regulate and give people more information about whether they may have been exposed.

“It’s in our interests as a society to carry on doing the things which help protect each other and we will make sure the app is constantly reviewed so it’s appropriate for the period of time that we’re living through, particularly now as we get into the majority of adults having been double-vaccinated thanks so the incredible vaccine roll-out.”

“Taking batteries out of the smoke alarm

But Sir Keir Starmer has raised concerns around decisions to “tune” the sensitivity of the app.

He said: “It’s like taking the batteries out of the smoke alarm: it is so obviously to weaken the defences that we have – and if the consequence of the prime minister’s decision is that people are deleting the NHS app, or the app is being weakened, then that’s a pretty good indicator that the decision of the prime minister is wrong,” he said.

The dropping of all restrictions on 19 July for so-called ‘Freedom Day’ is drawing growing criticism on the world stage.

“The world is at a perilous point in this pandemic. We have just passed the tragic milestone of four million Covid-19 deaths, which likely underestimates the overall toll,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general.

“Some countries with high vaccination coverage are now planning to roll out booster shots in the coming months and are now dropping public health social measures, relaxing as though the pandemic is already over.”

Rapid growth in infections

Despite encouraging data showing lower infection prevalence in people who have had both doses of the vaccine, there is rapid growth in infections, especially among younger people.

According to most recent data from Imperial College London, the highest prevalence was found in 13–17-year-olds, in which the rate of infection has increased from 0.16 per cent to 1.33 per cent since 7 June.

The six key tests that campaigners are using to assess new planning bill – CPRE

We join other leading charities including RSPB and the Wildlife Trusts in releasing six tests that new planning rules must pass to put people and nature first.

 www.cpre.org.uk 6th July 

We’ve worked with other major charities to create six measures that we’ll use to scrutinise the government’s upcoming planning bill.

The six tests provide a scorecard that uses the government’s own wording, from its Planning White Paper, to critically assess whether its vision for planning will become a reality in the Planning Bill.

Passing these tests would mean that the plans laid out in the government’s future planning bill make for the nature-friendly, low-carbon, well-designed, affordable homes and places of the future that nature and people deserve.

A wide-ranging coalition

22 organisations have come together from a range of areas to create the six tests. The coalition includes not only charities such as CPRE, the countryside charity and Friends of the Earth but also voices from the worlds of transport – Cycling UK – and nature – the Woodland Trust, RSPB and the Bat Conservation Trust.

This powerful coalition, which also includes Greenpeace, the Ramblers and The Wildlife Trusts, understands the power of planning to create thriving, sustainable housing that our communities will feel proud to call home.

As our CEO, Crispin Truman, puts it: ‘Planning has enormous potential to reshape society and create healthy, low carbon and thriving communities.’

These tests provide the framework to track government progress towards creating a planning system fit for the future by judging each criteria red, amber or green at key milestones.

Success or failure in six areas

The tests include measures across six key areas:

  • Local democracy. This includes ensuring that future planning rules retain and enhance genuine, accessible community participation and accountability throughout the planning process.
  • Affordable homes. An ongoing challenge, especially in the countryside, the government must deliver an evidenced strategy for building affordable homes and provide local authorities with the power to turn down developments that don’t create affordable housing.
  • The climate emergency. Any plans must see an acceleration of climate action to meet the UK’s net zero targets and make sure that local planning authorities are given powers to deliver climate-friendly developments.
  • Nature: Sites that are important for biodiversity and nature’s recovery must be protected – and new developments must enhance nature.
  • Heritage: Heritage sites and landscapes with special protections must be kept safe and protected from inappropriate development.
  • Health: The importance of human health, wellbeing and equality should be embedded into any new planning system, including prioritising access to natural green space, active travel and reduced air pollution.

The six tests document revisits commitments made by the government and sets out ways to measure success when they release their imminent response to the Planning White Paper.

The contents of this response will give an indication as to whether or not ministers have heeded the much-repeated concerns from this coalition of organisations.

Now: time to change for the better

As they stand, current plans don’t meet these essential criteria for making the planning system better – especially around ensuring local voices are heard.

As Crispin says, ‘what the government is currently proposing would push planning in the opposite direction. Surely, we should be encouraging more people to take part in the planning process, not alienating whole communities which will undoubtedly be the consequences of the government’s changes to planning?’

Crispin warns that significant changes to the government’s current intentions are needed before the planning rules will really work to meet the country’s needs:

‘Unless ministers change direction, they’ll not only fail many of these key tests but will have failed to reach the ambitions espoused in their own Planning White Paper. Communities, Parliamentarians and campaigners are already ‘seeing red’. That’s why we’re calling on the government to urgently change course and put people and nature at the center of the upcoming Planning Bill.’

More outside dining and takeaway pints to continue with ‘levelling up’ agenda

From our Local Enterprise Partnership we’ve had the “Golden Opportunities”, from the Great South West the “Green Jobs Boom”, Simon Jupp thinks “Banging the Drum for Hospitality” is the most important thing to do. Now Boris’ new catchphrase is regenerating the “Great British High Street”. When we will see some actual investment?-Owl

Fionnula Hainey www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk 

More outdoor dining and the continuation of takeaway pints are at the heart of new government plans to ‘level up’ the country, Downing Street has said.

A new strategy to boost local communities will focus on the regeneration of the great British high street, according to the government.

The plans are set to be outlined by prime minister Boris Johnson in a speech next week.

During his 2019 general election campaign, Mr Johnson insisted he would strive to fix regional inequalities in the UK.

Downing Street describing ‘levelling up’ as the “central purpose of his premiership”.

Restaurants, pubs and bars will have more opportunities to serve customers outdoors with the extension of pavement licences, which will then be made permanent, the government said.

Takeaway pints will continue for another 12 months as the temporary permissions for off-sales of alcohol are extended, in what is hoped to be a boost to the hospitality industry.

A government spokesperson said: “The prime minister is determined to level up the UK and deliver a fairer, stronger society – one where whatever your background and wherever you live, everyone can access the opportunities they need to succeed.

”While talent and potential is distributed evenly across this country, opportunity is not.

“That’s why as we emerge from the pandemic, it’s vital that we do not make the mistakes of recovery from the financial crash and seize this moment to ensure a better quality of life for people in every part of the UK.”

No 10 said the prime minister’s upcoming speech will cover creating a more balanced economy with high-quality jobs in every part of the UK, levelling up between generations, increasing access to opportunity no matter where people live, investing in infrastructure and skills, strengthening community and local leadership and restoring pride in place.

Plans also include supporting local sports teams by building new grassroots sports facilities – the equivalent to 50 new artificial pitches, the government said.

Sage underestimated English Covid admissions by a third

Oooops! – Owl

Tom Whipple, Science Editor | Kat Lay, Health Editor www.thetimes.co.uk 

Government modelling from two weeks ago underestimated the level of hospital admissions by more than a third, according to newly released documents.

Projections produced by Spi-M, the Sage modelling committee, on June 28 estimated that there would probably be about 275 daily hospital cases in England by about July 6, with an upper estimate of 350.

In reality on July 7, the latest date for which figures are available, there were 461 people admitted to hospital in England, and admissions were rising at a significantly higher rate than expected.

The discrepancy suggests that crucial decision-making at the time around reopening would have been informed by assumptions that turned out to be overly optimistic.

However, it came after a period when admissions had been significantly below those predicted by earlier models,which led some Sage scientists at the time to suggest that the delay to reopening might have been unnecessary.

Dr Stephen Griffin, from the University of Leeds, said that continued confusion over hospital admissions and their link to cases highlighted the uncertainty in relaxing restrictions.

“While we can’t say for sure that hospitalisations might follow this precise trajectory, it seems likely that they will track the exponential growth in cases we are seeing. Thus, as many are predicting, the dropping of restrictions on July 19 represents an unacceptable and unnecessary risk,” he said.

Neither should hospital cases be viewed as the only relevant metric. “There seems no accounting whatsoever of morbidity in the government plans, and there will be many, including younger people and children, that become seriously unwell,” he said. “Even before the 19th, Delta is out of control, we must not let this run rampant, let alone add more fuel to the fire.”

One of the key concerns about high caseloads over the winter appeared to have been tempered yesterday, with data from Public Health England [PHE] showing that two vaccine doses offered strong protection for most of those who are immunosuppressed.

The study involved a million participants with different conditions that made them clinically vulnerable. It found that overall in this group both the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer- BioNTech jabs offered 60 per cent protection after one dose. After two doses, the AstraZeneca vaccine offered 80 per cent protection from symptomatic disease. The Pfizer jab offered 89 per cent protection for over-65s, but data was unavailable for younger people.

Among those whose immune systems had been compromised, there was only 4 per cent protection after a first dose, but 73 per cent after a second.

The figures come with some uncertainty due to the smaller numbers involved. Blood Cancer UK said it was also concerned that people with different immune problems were grouped together. Gemma Peters, chief executive of Blood Cancer UK, said: “While there is a lot of uncertainty, there is enough reason to think the vaccines may not work as well for some people with blood cancer to continue to be cautious even after having both doses.”

Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE, said the findings showed it was vital that anyone with an underlying condition got both doses.

‘Dread and anxiety’ among NHS staff as Covid cases surge again

First an extract from this week’s letter to the “Lancet” criticising Boris Johnson’s “If not now, when?” freedom day strategy.

“Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care.”

Second in May 2020 Owl wrote:

Owl hears a lot about NHS capacity being measured in terms of the supply of PPE, number of beds and ventilators etc, not much about the limits of human endurance. In a couple of articles Owl has posted recently, Max Hastings has drawn comparisons between this emergency and the way resources are, or have been, mobilised in war. One wartime experience is a recognition of “battle fatigue” and the need  to manage this through “troop rotation” (either as individuals or as units) to maintain full efficiency. (Owl uses the recognised military terms tofacilitate research searches.)

Frontline NHS staff have been working at full stretch in extremely stressful conditions. It is unlikely that this peak work rate could, or should, be sustained indefinitely.

Today, we have:

Dread and anxiety’ among NHS staff as Covid cases surge again

Denis Campbell www.theguardian.com 

“NHS staff have a sense of dread about what’s around the corner. While we understand things need to open up some time, the timing feels like utter madness while we are so close to successfully vaccinating the population, and with a more contagious variant circulating.”

That view, expressed by a frontline respiratory consultant, is widely shared across the NHS. The doctor concerned has already grappled with the first two waves of Covid. She is now steeling herself for the next one which, despite being in its early stages, has already led one major hospital trust, in Leeds, to cancel scheduled surgery, including several cancer operations.

Among an NHS workforce weary after 16 months dealing with the pandemic there is a mixture of apprehension, nervousness, fear, a here-we-go-again resignation at the return of a familiar foe, stoical readiness to do their best again, and also anger that they will have to.

The same doctor adds: “We’ve seen a steady increase in [Covid] numbers over the past few weeks and are back to having a full Covid ward and patients on intensive care. While they are overall a lot younger, sadly deaths are slowly creeping up despite this.

“Healthcare professionals are deeply anxious about the impact of relaxing restrictions further given the current surge in Covid cases. To do away with risk-mitigating measures like social distancing and wearing of masks is incomprehensible to many of us. I feel anxious and frustrated.

“The dread and anxiety are because we’ve been here before, we’ve lived through the first two – or three depending on where you are – waves. We don’t want to be back in that place where we are on ‘escalation’ rotas, routine work is cancelled and we are dealing with deaths that we believe could have been preventable with a better public health strategy.”

Dr Nick Scriven, the immediate past president of the Society for Acute Medicine, who works in a hospital in Yorkshire, says: “Us up north are experiencing a fourth wave in community cases, with an uptick in hospital cases. Although numbers are not massive it’s both frightening and upsetting for staff as ICU cases are rising with unvaccinated people, either as they are young or by choice or both. There is to me a growing feeling that vaccination makes this almost preventable.”

However, doctors and hospital bosses are a bit more relaxed about the coming next surge in cases because they expect it to be different to the intensely demanding first two: smaller, less dramatic and less likely to cripple the NHS. Dr Rupert Pearse, an intensive care consultant in London, tweeted sardonically last weekend to say: “As we did in November 2020 we are projecting a ‘slow burn’ of hospital admissions rather than a third wave. Let’s hope our forecast is more accurate this time.”

Covid admissions to hospitals generally and intensive care units specifically are going up again, reflecting the sharp recent growth in infections. But the numbers involved remain low compared with spring last year and last winter, and the trajectory, while unmistakably upward, is nothing like as vertical as it was then.

Chris Hopson, the chief executive of hospital group NHS Providers, says: “For this set of variants, vaccines have broken the link between infections and previously high hospitalisations/mortality rates. So there’s high confidence among trust leaders that increasing community infection rates, even to the levels we saw in January, will not translate into the levels of hospitalisation and mortality we saw in that peak; a peak that brought extreme pressure to the NHS.”

But Hopson said in a thread of tweets this week on the NHS’s readiness to withstand the next wave that even a smaller surge in Covid cases posed a threat to a health service that is already – and official figures bear this out – the busiest it has ever been.

He pointed to the NHS’s efforts to tackle the huge backlog of people needing hospital treatment and deal with the record number of people turning up at A&E, while trying to give tired, stressed staff some much-needed time off and function with fewer beds than pre-pandemic because social distancing in hospitals means an eight-bed ward now contains just six. He is also increasingly concerned about the burden that the rising number of cases of “long Covid” is now placing on hospitals – a much less prevalent problem during the first and second waves.

Scriven says: “It’s overwhelming busy even without another Covid wave. Moving forwards, the government-projected rise [in infections to 100,000 a day] due to unlocking is a concern. Even if the hospital numbers don’t reach the same levels, the NHS is in a really difficult place. Any rise in Covid will seriously challenge elective [surgery] recovery and urgent and emergency care that is already struggling under the demand.”

Hopson and his counterpart at the NHS Confederation, Matthew Taylor, have warned in recent days that a new influx Covid-positive patients arriving when an overloaded, under-staffed service is facing winter-like demand for care in July would inevitably force hospitals to limit the amount of surgery they can perform. “Any significant Covid surge this summer will place even more strain on a system struggling to cope,” said Taylor.

With ministers putting pressure on the NHS to give the 5.3 million people on the waiting list in England the treatment they need as soon as possible, the service’s inability to do so – and the prospect of a fresh suspension of normal care – could become a key political issue.

Hopson points out that this time around the risk for the NHS is not “the likely absolute level of Covid-19 hospital admissions”, which thanks to the vaccination programme should be much lower than before. It is more about the next wave’s timing and the service’s underlying fragility after a decade of austerity funding and chronic staff shortages.

Delays to surgery can have consequences, he says ominously, suggesting they may prove unavoidable, depending on events outwith the health service’s control, especially what happens in England after “freedom day” on 19 July. “Trust leaders obviously have a mission to avoid any unnecessary harm. So they are instinctively uneasy about potential harm to any patient. But they also recognise wider issues at stake here.”

Pebblebed Heaths car parking “improvements”

Some of you may have noticed a group of planning applications validated for week beginning 21 June for a number of car parks on the Pebblebed Heaths.

They are grouped under this group application. and cover Stowford Woods, Frying Pan, Four Firs and Joneys Cross.

It is a response to the increased “footfall” pressures caused by “build, build, build”. Note the phrases “gathering” and “flexible visitor management” – Owl

Extracts from Pebblebed Heaths Car park strategy 2019 

The primary objective of this car parking strategy is to safeguard the SPA protected bird species (Nightjar and Dartford Warbler) and SAC heathland habitats from the adverse impacts and disturbance caused by people, particularly from dogs that are not on a lead. The principles applied to the car parking strategy seek to achieve this through: –

  • ‘gathering’ visitors towards car parks that are away from sensitive locations and towards those that have less impact on protected habitats and species.
  • retaining and developing the formal car parks that are as close as possible to the points of entry on to the Heaths, adjacent to the principal roads where the car parks are easy to find and easy to sign (e.g. car park name signs) thereby reducing car movements across the heaths and the scattered informal parking that occurs consequentially. 
  • maintaining the current number of car parking spaces across the heaths.  establishing nodes as the starting point for promoted trails, to direct people away from sensitive areas at key times of the year and to create welcoming, attractive locations where visitors can engage with interpretation, messaging and wardens about the nature, value and significance of the Pebblebed Heaths and particularly about responsible dog walking. 
  • the development of cost-effective design and build standards that are appropriate to a countryside location within an AONB and maintenance of surrounding vegetation that gives confidence to car park users that they and their vehicles are secure when using the car parks.
  • the partial, phased or seasonal closure of several car parks to enable a flexible approach to visitor management. 

…..Whilst this report does not recommend charging for parking to manage visitor numbers, as payment for parking at formal car parks is likely to displace visitors across the SPA/SAC undoing the principle of gathering visitors at nodes, the report does discuss charging options being adopted by other countryside managers.