Work on an alternative plan for how development across the Greater Exeter Area is set to continue, despite the end of the GESP.

RIP GESP – Owl

Daniel Clark, Local Democracy Reporter www.southwestfarmer.co.uk

The Greater Exeter Strategic Plan was due to be the formal planning framework for development across Exeter, East Devon, Mid Devon and Teignbridge, but following East Devon and then Mid Devon pulling out over the summer, work has ceased.

Teignbridge District Council’s executive on Tuesday (November 3) recommended to full council that they formally withdraw the process as well, but that in principle, support is still given for a joint non-statutory plan, to include joint strategy and infrastructure matters between the four authorities.

Speaking at Tuesday’s meeting, Cllr Gary Taylor, executive member for planning, said that while this ends the ‘lockstep partnership’ between the councils, there were still vital issues that affect the whole area and therefore can be effectively considered in a strategic, cross-boundary manner.

He said that these issues included that the collective authorities comprise a functional economic area and form an extensive housing and travel to work area, and that the wider area also faces common issues such as the need to deliver greater numbers of homes, constraints on infrastructure, the need to respond to the climate emergency, achieve net zero carbon development and increase habitat creation; and the need to improve accessibility for urban and rural areas by widening digital connectivity.

The proposals would provide a co-ordinated response to the area’s strategic economic, climate, housing, environmental and infrastructure issues and help to secure central government investment, but as a non-statutory plan, it would not be subject to statutory consultation or examination and therefore would be faster to prepare and more able to respond to changing circumstances.

Cllr Taylor added that this would still be better than purely acting independently, and that much of the effort and expenditure for the GESP process would still be relevant for the review of Teignbridge’s Local Plan that has begun.

Agreement of details of the scope of the plan, a timetable for its production, the resources required, and governance arrangements, will be agreed at a later date.

Nicholas Matheson does not have the qualifications of Dido Harding. He has never run a large private sector organisation, or sat in the House of Lords. He is merely an expert in virology and immunology.

Tom Whipple Science Editor www.thetimes.co.uk 

But as health chiefs attempt to roll out testing in Liverpool, they might learn from his experiences because he has mass tested the 10,000 students and staff of Cambridge University for a month.

In the summer Dr Matheson, the Baroness Harding of Cambridge, came to the same realisation that has informed the pilot test strategy in Liverpool. He argued that regularly testing all students would be the way to get through the winter.

The university agreed. Since the start of term, Cambridge has in effect operated its own parallel test and trace scheme. Like a scienceocracy it has also used the opportunity to experiment with long-mooted solutions.

Unlike the national programme, students are not analysed individually. They have been sending in swabs every fortnight, pooled with members of their bubble. If a bubble tests positive then it is locked down until they can get retested to identify who is infected.

This cuts down on tests but by checking twice it also catches most false positives.

So far, it seems to have worked: unlike other universities, none of which test at this scale, there have been no uncontrolled outbreaks.

The key to this approach, Dr Matheson said, and the reason Liverpool will be an important test case, is that more than half of cases are asymptomatic — people who would not volunteer for a test as they did not realise they had Covid-19.

Unless you can pick them up, preventing spread is extremely difficult. “We had a modest outbreak in one of the colleges,” he said. “The first few cases were picked up via the asymptomatic screening programme.

Joe Anderson, the mayor of Liverpool, on mass testing

“We like to think that by recognising the outbreak promptly we could limit the spread.”

While some universities have amplified infections and gone on to seed outbreaks into the community, the reverse seems to have been the case in Cambridge.

Since the second week, when positivity in asymptomatic tests peaked at 0.9 per cent of students, there has been a steady decline in cases. In the latest week, total positivity, including those presenting for tests because they had symptoms, had almost halved.

Dr Matheson acknowledges that making such a system work in a city will bring its own problems. A key lesson from the Cambridge scheme is that it needs support. Eighty per cent of students volunteered to take part, and because they are in college all can easily be followed up.

“We are generally supportive of the Liverpool approach,” he said. “We think asymptomatic screening is a good idea. But the devil is in the details.”

Boris Johnson’s drive to use mass so-called moonshot testing to control the spread of Covid-19 will fail unless stringent quarantine rules are relaxed, senior government advisers have warned.

Oliver Wright, Chris Smyth www.thetimes.co.uk 

Ministers have been told that plans to use millions of 15-minute tests to screen large parts of the population for asymptomatic Covid-19 risks being undermined by the existing test and trace system.

In particular they have been told that the “ridiculous” policy requiring the contacts of people known to have infections to self-isolate for two weeks or face a £10,000 fine risks undermining public acceptance of the mass testing initiative.

Instead ministers should use the new capacity to relax the quarantine rules and allow those who have come into contact with a known Covid-19 case to carry on with their daily life while being tested every two days.

“It’s a massive problem,” one senior figure advising the government, said. “The threat of self-isolation has killed the test and trace programme. People just say screw you — I’m not doing it. Compliance is really low.”

They added: “With the new tests they need to say we’ll still do contact tracing but we will ask people to pop in every two days and get another test, and provided they remain negative, then they can go about their business rather than being confined. You test them on day two, day four, day six and then they’re in the clear.

“I really don’t understand why they aren’t changing course.”

Robert West, professor of health psychology at University College London and a member of the government’s SPI-B behavioural advisory group, said that using rapid tests to free contacts from the need to isolate would be “very useful”.

He said: “It is potentially a massive step forward if people could get a test quickly and be confident of getting the result the same day. It would just give everyone so much more confidence that you’re not going to put someone in a really difficult position by naming them as a contact.”

He said that poor compliance on self-isolation was “primarily a matter of financial and practical support”.

“If you look at the demography of people who haven’t isolated they are struggling financially, in insecure jobs and have caring responsibilities. That is really pretty crucial.”

He said fixing test and trace was crucial to avoiding restrictions. “We have to find a way to identify and quarantine people who are infectious and support them to isolate. If we can do that we don’t need mass lockdowns.”

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said the new mass testing initiative that will begin trials in Liverpool this week must reduce the number of people needing to self-isolate.

“These need to be seen as tests that promote enablement rather than restrictions,” Sir John told the Today programme on Radio 4. “Although people with a positive test will still need to confine themselves for a period of time.

“What we hope ultimately you’ll be able to do is to avoid the quarantine of contacts that has caused so much trouble.

“People get pretty irritated when they get told they passed someone in the shops and they now need to quarantine for ten or 14 days. With these tests it should be possible to test these people every two days and they can go about their business provided they remain negative.”

Flavio Toxvaerd, a lecturer in the economics of infectious diseases at the University of Cambridge, said: “The incentives to get tested are complicated and may vary from person to person. A civic-minded individual who is asymptomatic but tests positive for Covid-19 may choose to self-isolate. This would be a desirable outcome. But others may take a positive test result as a cue to be less cautious, as they are no longer at risk of infection. They thereby put others at risk and in such cases, testing may backfire.

“For some, not knowing their infection status may be preferable to testing positive as a positive test may bring forced self-isolation and loss of income. Unless the government puts in place the right incentives, plausible deniability may look attractive to some who suspect they are infected but who stand to lose a lot from self-isolation. So a sensible testing policy must go hand in hand with proper support and incentives for those who test positive.”

Ministers have been burnt by over-hyped pledges on testing in the past. But this time there is a belief — among politicians and their scientific advisers — that the UK is on the verge of a game-changing increase in capacity that could allow the country to live with Covid-19 without the need for lockdowns (Oliver Wright and Chris Smyth write).

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said that increased testing may come ahead of a vaccine in advances that could help normal life to resume.

The cause for optimism is the validation of four types of new tests that do not require lab processing and can be done at home with results returned in as little as 15 minutes.

While Liverpool will be used in the first instance to test how best to run such a mass screening programme, it is likely to be rolled out nationally at the end of the upcoming lockdown period.

One senior figure involved in the programme said there should be enough of the new devices to potentially test the whole of the UK before Christmas and that this was something ministers were “definitely” thinking about.

But even with the new tests, deploying them at such a scale will be a tall order with a population of about 66 million.

One negative test does not mean you will not become infected, so it is not necessarily a passport for a normal Christmas. People also have to agree to be tested in the first place, and many may be reluctant to risk the prospect of a positive test.

In Liverpool the plan is to offer a test every week. There will also be targeted interventions such as in schools, colleges and healthcare settings. There could also be door-to-door testing in areas with high rates. The idea is to see what is effective, what uptake looks like, and the effect in reducing transmission.

Testing everyone in a one-off programme is not a strategy. But it could be a reset moment on the path towards a more targeted programme of regular testing and allow the end of social distancing.

Ministers are determined that it does not become another eye-catching target that they miss while distracting from the need to find a coherent screening plan.

Jeremy Hunt, the chairman of the health select committee, warned that hospitals could experience similar levels of transmission as during the first coronavirus wave without a rigorous testing regime for health workers.

Calling for more routine testing of NHS staff, he told the Today programme: “My biggest worry, frankly, is that we still have not introduced weekly testing of NHS staff.

“We know that up to 11 per cent of coronavirus patients in hospital died last time, having caught the virus in a hospital, and I think it would be quite unforgivable if we made the same mistake twice and didn’t take that terrible weight off the minds of NHS staff of worrying that they might be giving the infection to their own patients.”

Four types of test

Standard PCR

The original test that is used in NHS laboratories and Test and Trace “lighthouse labs”. It involves amplifying a small sample of the coronavirus’s genetic material through repeated heating and cooling to stimulate key reactions.

The test is extremely reliable but takes several hours to process in a specialist lab. This means that it is hard to turn around tests in under 24 hours. There have been concerns that because it is so sensitive it picks up cases where people have fractions of the virus’s genetic material, or RNA, in them but are not actually infectious.

RT-Lamp

This technique allows test machines to pick up genetic material without the need for the series of temperature changes. This means results come back much quicker — sometimes in 20 minutes.

The equipment needed is much smaller than for PCR tests — about the size of a laptop computer — which means they can be used for localised community checks rather than having to send samples away. The government intends to use these tests for screening in places such as hospitals to ensure that asymptomatic patients and staff do not spread the disease.

Saliva Lamp

These tests use the same RT-Lamp technology but with a sample of saliva rather than a full throat and nasal swab. The advantage of this is that it is much easier to administer and makes it potentially more reliable. Most of the problems with PCR tests have been connected to samples rather than a failure of the testing itself. These tests are also likely to be used in community settings.

Lateral flow

This is pregnancy test-style technology that requires only a sample to be run along the surface of an absorbent pad. Such tests are cheap and can be mass-produced.

They are quicker than other tests — giving results in 15 minutes — and do not require specialist equipment or technicians to administer. This means they can be scaled up very rapidly. They are less accurate than other tests; however, because they detect coronavirus protein rather than RNA, they are better at identifying those most likely to be infectious.

Disclosed in a filing on a European contracts website, the award has prompted concerns about “cronyism” and calls for an independent inquiry into the £12bn spent so far on attempting to control the pandemic through the test-and-trace system.

Joseph Smith www.theguardian.com 

The UK government has awarded a new £347m Covid-19 testing contract to Randox, the Tory-linked private healthcare company whose testing kits had to be recalled over the summer because of concerns about contamination.

The deal is a six-month extension of an existing contract and was agreed without other companies being invited to bid. It means the health secretary, Matt Hancock, has now approved transfers of nearly half a billion pounds in taxpayer funds to the Northern Ireland-based company since the pandemic began.

Disclosed in a filing on a European contracts website, the award has prompted concerns about “cronyism” and calls for an independent inquiry into the £12bn spent so far on attempting to control the pandemic through the test-and-trace system.

Critics raised further concerns about a separate revelation that the Conservative MP Owen Paterson, who is paid £100,000 a year to act as a consultant for Randox, was party to a call between the company and James Bethell, the health minister responsible for coronavirus testing supplies.

The disclosure raises fresh questions about Paterson’s continuing work for Randox, and the efficacy of the code of conduct for MPs, which is supposed to limit their work as paid lobbyists and regulate access to ministers.

“Legislators must not also be lobbyists,” said a spokesperson for the campaign group Transparency International.

The Green party MP Caroline Lucas said: “We urgently need an independent inquiry into where public money is going as many firms who have benefited seem to have links to the Tory party or individual ministers.

“The lack of transparency around Covid-related contracts is a scandal. At the very least, ministers owe MPs an explanation, and we are still not getting one.”

Randox provides tens of thousands of kits a week to care homes and individuals testing themselves at home, which are then posted back to its laboratories in County Antrim. Concerns were raised in July when spot checks revealed some kits supplied by a Chinese manufacturer and sent out by Randox were not sterile.

The company was ordered to recall 750,000 unused kits. The failure delayed plans to provide regular testing for English care home residents and staff, a promise on which the government has yet to deliver.

In May, the Guardian revealed that Randox was awarded a first government contract on 30 March, worth £133m. It was awarded in a closed process, without being publicly advertised beforehand and without any other companies being asked to bid. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) revealed on Wednesday that the contract was for 2.7m kits – meaning the cost per kit was just over £49.

The new deal was signed on 2 October and was expected to run for six months, until the end of March 2021, a spokesperson said.

The government has been bypassing normal rules on holding open competitions for public sector contracts under emergency powers designed to speed up the process during the pandemic. The latest Randox deal was awarded as an extension to the existing contract, again with no other companies invited to bid.

The call between Randox, Paterson and Lord Bethell took place on 9 April, days after the company had secured its first contract to provide testing services. Bethell, who ran a political lobbying firm before entering the House of Lords, is the minister for innovation in the DHSC. He has led efforts by Boris Johnson’s government to use private sector companies in the pandemic response.

Billions in public funds have been awarded to companies such as Deloitte, which helped set up a network of drive-in test centres, and Serco, which runs the contact-tracing call centre.

The call with Bethell was revealed in the quarterly disclosure of ministerial meetings, gifts and trips, where the reason for the call is listed as “to discuss Covid-19 testing”.

A government source said the conversation with Bethell was a “courtesy call” from the minister to Randox and took place after the initial contract had been signed. Paterson was participating as a paid consultant to Randox on the call, the source said.

Paterson, who is the MP for North Shropshire, has disclosed in parliament’s register of interests that he is paid £8,333 for 16 hours of work a month by Randox.

Paterson and Randox did not respond to a request for comment. Challenged last year about his work as a consultant for a number of private companies, Paterson responded: “My financial interests have been correctly declared according to the rules of the House of Commons.”

The Guardian has previously reported that Hancock toured Randox’s laboratories in Antrim last year to inspect a tool for diagnosing sepsis. Documents released under the Freedom of Information Act suggest Paterson also took part in the visit.

Steve Goodrich of Transparency International UK said the government should return to open tenders.

“That hundreds of millions of pounds of procurement can go ahead without even a whiff of competition is bad enough, yet when these deals are awarded to those with political connections it reeks of cronyism,” said Goodrich. “Government really needs to get back into the habit of competitive tendering or risk irreparably damaging confidence in its prudent management of public money.”

“MPs and peers must scrupulously avoid the perception – or reality – that they are working as lobbyists for private interests,” Goodrich added. “When parliamentarians with outside employment meet government concerning their client’s commercial operations, it looks an awful lot like they’re trying to influence ministers in return for payment. Parliament should tighten its rules to make it absolutely clear that legislators must not also be lobbyists.”

A DHSC spokesperson said in an emailed statement: “We are proud to be working with a number of partners on innovative solutions to increase capacity where it is needed and introduce larger-scale testing. This includes an extension of an existing contract with Randox Laboratories, as we continue to increase testing capacity.”

Data from final trials of two Covid vaccines could be available “within weeks” but there will only be four million doses of the Oxford jab by the end of the year, MPs were told today.

Rhys Blakely, Science Correspondent www.thetimes.co.uk

Data from final trials of two Covid vaccines could be available “within weeks” but there will only be four million doses of the Oxford jab by the end of the year, MPs were told today.

Kate Bingham, chairwoman of the government’s Vaccine Taskforce, said inoculations from Pfizer and Oxford University had the “possibility of being ready before the end of the year”.

However, she also revealed that only about four million doses of the Oxford vaccine would be manufactured by Christmas.

That falls far short of a statement made by the government in May, which suggested that 30 million doses could be supplied by September.

Greg Clark, the Conservative MP who chairs the science and technology select committee, said that number of doses would not be sufficient to forge ahead with a “mass deployment” that would focus first on frontline health workers, the elderly and others at high risk.

Ms Bingham added that up to ten million doses of the Pfizer vaccine could also be available by January but cautioned that rolling it out would be challenging.

The Pfizer jab contains a type of genetic material known as mRNA which must be stored in ultra-cold conditions of -70C. “They may be relatively straightforward to manufacture initially but the cost of deployment and the complexity of deployment is very high — we have to find better vaccine formats,” she said.

There is no guarantee that any of the six vaccines that Ms Bingham has arranged to buy will work and before any jab could be deployed it would have to be approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Andrew Pollard, from the Oxford team, said this morning that there was “a small chance” that its vaccine would be ready for distribution before Christmas.

“The first step is to reach the point where we can do an analysis and find out whether or not the vaccine works . . . I’m optimistic that we could reach that point before the end of this year,” he said. He said it was not clear how long regulatory clearance would take.

The deals struck by Ms Bingham could secure some 350 million doses in total for the UK. The aim has been to spread the risk among several groups and technologies in the expectation that several will fail.

“We’re manufacturing now so we will have vaccines ready — so that as soon as we have approval from MHRA, you’ll be able to start deployment,” she told members of the science and technology and health and social care committees this afternoon.

However, when pressed on the number of doses that would be available, she said production of the Oxford vaccine had not been scaled up as quickly as planned.

“The projections that were made in good faith at the time, to get to 30 million doses in September, [assumed] that absolutely everything would work and that there were no hiccups at all,” she said.

The Oxford vaccine relies on a harmless virus, known as adenovirus, which was originally taken from a chimpanzee. This is used to carry a piece of genetic code into a person’s cells, which goes on to produce a protein found on the surface of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. This should prepare the immune system to fend off the real pathogen.

Producing the vaccine calls for the adenovirus to be cultivated inside living cells. Ms Bingham said this technically demanding step had run into obstacles.

“It’s not through lack of care and attention or availability of equipment or anything like that. It’s just that this normally takes a very long time,” she said.

At present, the government has doses of the Oxford vaccine in the “low single millions”, she said. “The third batch of the thousand litre manufacturing is under way now. So that should get us up to about four million doses by the end of the year.”

These doses will not immediately be ready to be sent to clinics, however. They will first have to be transferred from bulk storage into small glass vials. That will not take place until the government is confident they are safe and effective, because once they are decanted the clock starts ticking on their use-by date.

Writing last week in The Lancet, Ms Bingham warned that a vaccine would not allow life to return quickly to normal. “It is important to guard against complacency and over-optimism. The first generation of vaccines is likely to be imperfect, and we should be prepared that they might not prevent infection but rather reduce symptoms, and, even then, might not work for everyone or for long,” she said.

Robin Shattock, one of the scientists behind another vaccine developed by Imperial College London, said today that several vaccines may be needed to stop the pandemic. “The first vaccines may reach the bar of preventing severe disease, but they may not necessarily block transmission,” he said.

Ms Bingham also told MPs that she had revealed “nothing confidential” at an online networking event last week. The Sunday Times had revealed that Ms Bingham, who is married to the Conservative Treasury minister Jesse Norman, had spoken to the online conference, which anybody could join for a $200 fee. During her talk she was said to have identified several vaccine projects being monitored by the UK government.

Asked if she disclosed anything that was proprietary and should not have been in the public domain, she replied: “No, and there have been a lot of nonsense reports, and inaccurate, and I’m afraid to say irresponsible, reports suggesting that I did. What I described was the landscape of vaccines.”

She said she had disclosed “nothing commercially sensitive, nothing confidential” but admitted there was an error on a slide, a footnote that suggested it was confidential. She said she had made an error because she was “working too fast”.

She added: “There was nothing confidential and those footers should not have been there.”

•Astrazeneca is planning a so-called “storm chaser” trial of a treatment that could be used to protect vulnerable care home residents who are exposed to the coronavirus.

The trials are expected to involve about 1,100 people in the United States and Britain and will include long-term care home residents. If one person in a home tests positive for Covid-19, those around them would be given a dose of a monoclonal antibody drug.

The hope is that a three-minute infusion of the laboratory-produced antibodies could defend against the coronavirus for between six and 12 months.

Astrazeneca said the trial would “evaluate post-exposure prophylaxis and pre-emptive treatment”. Earlier this week the US government said it would invest about $486 million for the development and supply of up to 100,000 doses of the therapy.

The research has involved evaluating more than 1,500 so-called monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). These mimic the neutralising antibodies created naturally by the immune systems of patients who recover from Covid-19. The mAbs were screened to choose the two most effective against the virus and they have been engineered to have a longer life than natural antibodies.

Astrazeneca has said monoclonal antibodies are unlikely to be an alternative to vaccines for the general population because they are much more expensive.

From a correspondent:

While walking down the street one day a Corrupt Politician (that may be a redundant description) was tragically hit by a car and died. His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

“Welcome to heaven,” says St. Peter. “Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we’re not sure what to do with you.”

“No problem, just let me in,” says the Politician. “Well, I’d like to, but I have orders from the higher ups. What we’ll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.” “Really? I’ve made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,” says the Politician. “I’m sorry, but we have our rules.”

And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him. Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people. They played a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and the finest champagne. Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who is having a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are all having such a good time that before the Politician realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises.

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens in heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him, “Now it’s time to visit heaven…

So, 24 hours passed with the Politician joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

“Well, then, you’ve spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.” The Politician reflects for a minute, then he answers: “Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.” So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell…

Now the doors of the elevator open and he’s in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls to the ground. The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulders. “I don’t understand,” stammers the Politician. “Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there’s just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?”

The devil smiles at him and says, “Yesterday, we were campaigning. Today, you voted.”

Goings-on in Devon Council meetings get curiouser and curiouser! Owl

Edward Oldfield www.plymouthherald.co.uk 

The fallout from the resignation of eight members of the Conservative group on Plymouth City Council triggered a political clash at an online public meeting.

Conservatives accused the ruling Labour group of being anti-democratic, but the leadership hit back by accusing the Tories of arrogance and ignoring the law.

At one point the council’s Labour leader Tudor Evans called on Tory leader Nick Kelly to resign over the loss of support shown by the resignations from the Conservative group.

The special meeting of the Labour-controlled council on Monday evening was called to consider how seats on its committees should be shared out following the changes.

A report said that the places of former Tory group members should be filled by Labour councillors.

That was because non-aligned councillors cannot be given a committee seat if they are outside a political group, as set out by the law covering local government.

The report said that of the 57 seats on the council, 30 were held by members of the Labour group, equal to a majority of 52.6 per cent.

There were now 17 members of the Tory group, representing 29.8 per cent of the seats, and 10 Independents making up 10 per cent – the eight Conservatives who resigned plus two former Labour group members, Chaz Singh in the Drake ward, who resigned from the party, and Kevin Neill in Stoke, who has been suspended.

Conservatives claimed the proposal to remove the Independent Conservatives from committees was anti-democratic and would weaken scrutiny of the ruling Labour administration.

They called on the Labour group to give up seats to the Independents.

But after a half-hour debate, the proposals for the new committee membership set out in the report were approved, with the newly-independent Conservatives voting alongside the Labour group in favour.

Conservative councillor Glenn Jordan said the changes meant the places of the former Tory group members would go to Labour, giving the party more seats on the scrutiny panels which monitored the council’s work.

He asked: “How is that holding the executive to account? How is that holding Cabinet to account? It’s not.”

He said if the council wanted open and transparent debate the proposals should be rejected.

Conservative group leader Nick Kelly said he was disappointed that the meeting had been called just to discuss the item, when the time could have been better used to discuss the response to Covid-19.

He said it was “quite disturbing” and a waste of resources, as the decision could have waited until the next scheduled meeting of the full council on November 16.

Cllr Kelly said it was anti-democratic to deny the former Conservative group members a chance to serve on a committee.

Lord Mayor Chris Mavin said the law was clear about how committee seats had to be allocated, and the meeting was taking place because Cllr Kelly had not accepted the proposals set out in the report.

Conservative group deputy leader Patrick Nicholson accused the Lord Mayor of shutting down debate by limiting the number of contributions to the discussion, which Cllr Mavin denied.

The Lord Mayor, who chairs full council meetings, said the process for allocating committee seats was clear under the law and he wanted to make sure the council was not wasting time.

The Labour councillor said: “What I’m not prepared to do is to spend hours sitting here tonight listening to speaker after speaker after speaker saying the same thing, because there’s not much that can be said on this.”

The council’s Labour leader Tudor Evans rejected the suggestion from Cllr Kelly that the meeting could have been spent discussing coronavirus.

He said it was taking place because of the Conservative leader’s “arrogance” and unwillingness to accept the law, which dictated how the committee places had to be allocated.

Cllr Evans said the review of the committee structure had to take place after the resignation of Conservative group members citing an “atmosphere of bullying and intimidation”, a reference to comments by former Tory council leader Ian Bowyer.

The Labour leader said: “The reason we are here is because the council cannot continue to be over-represented on committees by Conservatives.”

He said Cllr Kelly had lost support, was not able to drive the council “from the back seat” or control his group “from a position of weakness” and should resign.

Cllr Nicholson responded to claims about the reason for the Tory resignations, saying he could reassure the council that there was not an atmosphere of bullying in the group, but there had been disagreement about approach.

He said: “We in the Conservative group do very much wish to hold the Labour authority to account to get better services for the people we represent throughout the city of Plymouth.”

The Conservative deputy leader said: “We’re not seeing a democratic city council.”

Cllr Nicholson said the Labour group could give up committee seats so the non-aligned councillors could have a role on committees outside meetings of the full council.

After half an hour of discussion, Labour’s Mary Aspinall proposed moving to a vote on the issue, seconded by Labour’s Sam Davey. That was approved, followed by a second vote which passed the recommendations for the new committee membership by 37 votes to 16.

The meeting held remotely over the internet using Microsoft Teams software was interrupted several times with councillors raising points of order. At one point during the first vote, a loud belch was picked up by a microphone, although the source was unclear.

Eight members of the Conservative group resigned over a week during October, citing concerns over the leadership following the election of Cllr Kelly in March.

The first two to go were former group leader and Eggbuckland councillor Ian Bowyer and Tony Carson, who represents Peverell.

That followed their suspension from the group for comments in a press release calling for a cut in the speed limit on the A38, due to concerns about safety and congestion.

Cllr Kelly denied a claim from Cllr Bowyer that there was a culture of “aggression and intimidation” in the group and said the press release had broken group rules and did not represent policy.

Cllr Bowyer’s Conservative colleagues in Eggbuckland, his wife Lynda and Heath Cook, were the next to leave, saying they had lost confidence in the leadership.

Andrea Johnson and Richard Ball, who represent Compton alongside Cllr Kelly, quit two days later citing “irreconcilable differences”.

Then came the resignations of Kathy Watkin, ward councillor for Plymstock Radford, and Plymstock Dunstone councillor Nigel Churchill.

Cllr Kelly responded to claims about the leadership by saying that he was supported by the majority of the Conservative group which operated in an “open and democratic way”, and he encouraged freedom of speech, wider group participation and the expression of all views.

He said: “Cllr Bowyer has simply not accepted, even six months on, that the majority of the group no longer wanted him as leader and his actions to many sadly reflect this.”

“Another full national lockdown ‘simply isn’t necessary in the South West and I would vote against any push by Labour to force a national lockdown. This would divide the country, harm our economy and punish people across the South West.“

Simon Jupp has just been on Westcountry News saying he has “reluctantly” voted for lockdown but he wants to see improvements in test and trace.

You’re a Tory MP Mr Jupp – if you can’t push for such improvements (and you haven’t because the situation has got worse and worse) just who can?

Owl would have loved to have seen Claire Wright MP having her say on this one!

A high-profile proposal to avoid lockdown by letting the coronavirus run wild in the young and healthy while shielding the most vulnerable is dangerously flawed and operationally impractical, according to England’s chief medical officer.

Rajeev Syal www.theguardian.com

Prof Chris Whitty told MPs on the science and technology committee that the Great Barrington declaration, put forward by three scientists at Oxford, Harvard and Stanford universities, would lead to a very large number of deaths and was unlikely to achieve such widespread immunity that the epidemic would fizzle out naturally.

Speaking at the hearing with Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Whitty said he expected the month-long lockdown for England that Boris Johnson announced at the weekend to have the desired effect of bringing the R value below 1 across the country, causing the number of cases to fall.

The scientists, who were called before the committee to explain the evidence behind the latest lockdown, said that left unchecked, hospital admissions would exceed levels seen in April, a situation Whitty described as “entirely realistic”.

 Lockdown aim is to reduce Covid enough by 2 December to move on, says Whitty – video

Questioned on England’s strategy for lifting the lockdown, Whitty said he expected changes to be made to the three-tier system imposed in October. Vallance said further measures would be needed until the spring to keep infections down.

“We’re likely to need degrees of social distancing and other measures over the course of the winter. It’s only really come springtime and beyond when other things may start to allow some more relaxation,” Vallance said. Vaccines, new drugs and improved testing would all be important for restrictions to be eased, he added.

His comments came as Dido Harding, the under-pressure head of NHS test and trace, conceded the system needed to improve during the second lockdown if the country was to recover.

Lady Harding has faced criticism for the performance of the six-month tracing system, which last month contacted less than 60% of infected people’s contacts.

In an interview conducted at the CBI’s virtual annual conference on Tuesday, she said that the main problem was finding and testing people who had Covid but displayed no symptoms.

“Every country is grappling with the same problem. Despite everyone’s best efforts and all of the work of our team in NHS test and trace to be the second line of defence, the virus is spreading too rapidly and too widely,” she said.

“As we go into another really challenging period for us as a country, it is time for the organisation that I lead to take the next big leap forward. We will be focusing on improving NHS test and trace so that when England emerges from lockdown we are better able to live with Covid.”

MPs on the science and technology committee earlier pressed Vallance to explain why he had shown out-of-date modelling from Cambridge University and Public Health England at the prime minister’s announcement of the new lockdown on Saturday. The modelling suggested that deaths could reach 4,000 a day in the coming weeks if nothing were done, a figure the Labour MP Graham Stringer said “frightened a lot of people around the country”.

The modelling was based on the growth of the epidemic before the tier system was brought in and gave unrealistically high numbers of deaths.

Vallance defended the decision and said it was one scenario that informed thinking about a reasonable worst-case scenario. More recent results from the Cambridge model point to a much lower daily death rate, bringing it in line with other models that suggest they could reach about 2,000 a day.

The Great Barrington declaration calls on governments to protect the most vulnerable and let the rest of society return to life as normal. The aim is to let the virus spread in the young and healthy who build up enough immunity that the epidemic grinds to a halt.

Whitty, however, said that with the vast majority of infectious diseases, herd immunity was never achieved naturally, and that it was “simply impractical” to believe vulnerable people in the community, care homes, hospitals and elsewhere could be shielded.

Another concern, he said, was that the strategy assumed that “very large numbers of people would inevitably die” unless all vulnerable people could be identified and isolated perfectly for several years. “Other than that, it no doubt has some merits,” he said.

Vallance agreed with the assessment and said Sage, the government’s expert committee, had reviewed the Great Barrington proposal and found “fatal flaws in the argument”.

The high court has rejected a legal bid to challenge a decision not to investigate Dominic Cummings’s journey from London to Durham at the height of the first coronavirus lockdown.

Matthew Weaver www.theguardian.com

Max Hill, the director of public prosecutions, said any decision to investigate Cummings must be made by the police. He did not have the power to interfere.

Martin Redston, a 70-year-old director of a London engineering firm, had sought a judicial review over the case.

At a hearing in London on Tuesday, Michael Mansfield QC said Cummings “appearing to evade any genuine scrutiny for his actions due to government associations is undermining of respect for the rule of law”.

Mansfield argued that as Hill had oversight of the prosecution system, he had a duty to “nudge” the police with advice, particularly over new legislation such as the coronavirus rules.

In the Cummings case, he said Hill should have “stepped in with some friendly advice” following Durham Constabulary’s three-day investigation, which only examined Cummings’s movements in County Durham including a 52-mile round trip to Barnard Castle.

Mansfield said: “He should have said to the Metropolitan police: ‘This is worthy of investigation in relation to the circumstances in which Dominic Cummings left his home … and whether this does constitute a reasonable excuse.’”

He also said it was important for Hill to assert his independence from government after the attorney general and prime minister said Cummings had done nothing wrong.

Mansfield argued there was a clear public interest in an investigation over a concern that “the lawmaker broke the law he has made or helped to make”, adding: “If there is a prominent member of government we say flagrantly not obeying them [the rules], this affects the level of security and health for the rest. The public would be reassured if they knew they had been properly investigated.”

Duncan Atkinson QC, for Hill, argued the director of public prosecutions did not have the power to refer cases to the police. In any case, Hill had not made a decision not to prosecute, the court was told. “There is no decision that can be judicially reviewed,” he said.

Permission to review was rejected. Lady Justice Carr, sitting with Mr Justice Picken, said: “The decision in principle is that this renewed claim for permission to apply for judicial review will be refused.” The reasoning for the decision will be set out later this week.

Redston said he would consider an appeal. Speaking outside the court he added: “I’m very disappointed. The ultimate aim of this is to ensure that Dominic Cummings is actually prosecuted for the breach of lockdown regulations. So now we need to consider how we go forward.”

The chief scientific adviser and the chief medical officer are running the country: the prime minister just does what he’s told, writes John Rentoul www.independent.co.uk 

Thank goodness for the select committee system. It allowed our true government to be held to account by elected representatives. Boris Johnson gave the game away on Saturday when he said “no responsible prime minister can ignore the message of those figures”. In other words, Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, who presented the figures, are running the country: the prime minister just does what he’s told.  

What was important, therefore, was not Johnson’s statement in the House of Commons on Monday, when Labour MPs asked him why he hadn’t ordered the second lockdown earlier and Conservative MPs asked him why he was doing it at all. The important session was Vallance and Whitty’s joint appearance in front of the Science and Technology Committee today. 

They were subjected to tough questioning about the graphs that they had shown on Saturday which presented the figures that Johnson couldn’t ignore. In particular one scenario – it was definitely not a forecast – suggested that 4,000 people could die every day by Christmas if no action were taken. 

Vallance and Whitty could not disown it fast enough. It was a “reasonable worst-case scenario” that was owned by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, rather than by their outfit, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. Did they wish they hadn’t shown it, they were asked. Vallance mumbled about the other graphs that were in their presentation, and Whitty said he had never used anything going beyond the next six weeks “with any minister”.  

But the two so-called advisers had certainly told the so-called prime minister that the NHS would be overrun within weeks if he didn’t order a lockdown. As Greg Clark, the deceptively mild chair of the committee, said, this meant that their advice was not really “optional”.  

Vallance and Whitty insisted that all they did was present information, and it was up to ministers to weigh up all the other factors before coming to a decision. They always pay lip service to the serious long-term economic consequences of lockdowns, but they didn’t sound, today, as if they thought these could possibly outweigh the health effects of the disease.  

Vallance could not resist a dig at other, less powerful, parts of the government, saying that he and Whitty were in favour of disclosing as much information as possible, and that “other advice is less visible” – meaning the advice on the economic impact. If MPs were looking for the mythical economic impact assessment – a document that does not exist, as Alok Sharma, the business secretary, was reluctantly forced to admit this morning – they would not find it here.  

The true problem of holding our government of experts to account was exposed towards the end of the session when Clark asked the duumvirate why children’s sport outside is being banned under the lockdown rules, when it is clearly a low-risk activity. Vallance said there are problems with “interactions around events” (presumably parents opening the orange juice cartons in the changing room), but Whitty said rather loftily: “We don’t go down to that level of individual activities.” His job was to set out the general principles, and it was for his subordinates, mere ministers, to put together the complex packages of policy: “It would be deeply unhelpful if we tried to unpick those packages now.”  

Clark commented rather mournfully on the difficulty of getting the voices of his constituents heard by the real wielders of power.  

MPs on the committee said several times that they needed answers before the vote tomorrow on the lockdown regulations; but everyone knows that this vote is a foregone conclusion, because Labour MPs will vote in favour and the Conservative rebellion seems unlikely so far to exceed the rule of six.  

Katherine Fletcher, a new Conservative MP, asked the bluntest and most effective question: “Is this lockdown going to work?” If people abide by it, it will start to reduce the level of infections, said Whitty. But we mustn’t think that this would mean that coronavirus is over, he added. Our real government has spoken.

After weeks of Exeter being the covid capital of the south west, Plymouth is now the region’s virus hotspot. 

The Exeter containment is a real success story – Owl

Radio Exe News www.radioexe.co.uk 

At one point, Exeter had the seventh highest proportion of people with the disease in England, mainly centred on the university campus. Stringent measures there, which prevented students from mixing between households, meant infections into the wider community were contained. Over time, the rate has gone down.

But it’s a different story in Plymouth, where the number of people confirming positive have risen. Derriford Hospital was hit too, with covid patients being identified in non-covid wards. That led to the hospital closing a large number of beds which the situation was brought under control. The city has 155 cases per 100,000 people in the latest figures, still well below the national average, but rising at a higher rate.

The region’s relatively low rate of infections is a double-edged sword. Dr. David Strain of the University of Exeter Medical School says this could leave a large number of vulnerable people who haven’t yet been exposed to coronavirus. “I would be very cautious,” he says, “but I would suggest we could be hit proportionately harder in the second wave than in the first wave.”

The number of people in the RD&E with covid has almost doubled from 23 to 41 in the past week.

No new coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded in East Devon or Exeter in the latest weekly figures – but there have been 14 fatalities elsewhere in the county.

East Devon Reporter eastdevonnews.co.uk 

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data published today (Tuesday, November 3) showed the number across Devon is the highest for five months.

The figures relate to deaths between October 17 – 23 that were registered up to October 31.

They show that eight deaths due to Covid-19 were recorded in Torbay, with one fatality in North Devon, Teignbridge, Torridge, the South Hams, Plymouth and Mid Devon.

Six fatalities had been recorded across both Devon and Cornwall in the previous seven-day period.

There has been one Covid-related death in East Devon in ten weeks, while Exeter has gone 19 weeks without a fatality.

West Devon has gone seven weeks and Cornwall a fortnight.

In total, 51 Covid-19 deaths have been registered in East Devon; 19 of them in hospital, 29 in care homes and three at home.

The total for Exeter is 39; 16 of them in hospital, 21 in care homes and two at home.

Some 610 coronavirus-related deaths have been registered across Devon and Cornwall; 320 in hospitals, 242 in care homes, 46 at home, one in a hospice and on in a ‘communal establishment’.

Of these, 102 have been in Plymouth, 71 in Torbay, 34 in Teignbridge, 27 in North Devon, 21 in Torridge, 20 in Mid Devon, 19 in West Devon, and 13 in the South Hams

A total of 213 deaths due to the virus have been registered in Cornwall.

The ONS figures for Devon and Cornwall include people who have died at home, in hospital, in care homes, hospices, ‘other’ communal places, or ‘elsewhere’.

They are broken down by the local authority area in which the deaths were registered.

Government figures show at total of 796 Covid-19 cases have been confirmed in East Devon to date. The number for Exeter is 1,973.

Work is under way on a strategy to tackle the ‘root causes of poverty’ in East Devon.

East Devon Reporter eastdevonnews.co.uk

Councillors earlier this year agreed to set up a Poverty Working Panel to address issues such as inc​ome and employment, debt and financial vulnerability, and food and nutrition.

Affordable warmth and water, affordable housing and homelessness, and health equality were also topics on the agenda.

The panel met for the first time in October and heard the Covid-19 pandemic has inevitably affected residents.

Increasing levels of unemployment, food poverty, budgeting and high levels of indebtedness were all highlighted.

Exmouth Halsdon ward member Councillor Megan Armstrong,  East Devon District Council (EDDC) portfolio holder for sustainable homes and communities, said: “I was really pleased that this cross-party group contributed positively, with plenty of ideas for the poverty strategy.

“Members expressed their commitment to make sure this council does everything in its power to relieve poverty, in whatever form it takes, throughout the district.

“Covid-19 has made things worse, and we will try and address the root causes of poverty, and we want to focus on development of the poverty strategy and subsequent implementation.

“The panel is keen to move forward with the poverty strategy as swiftly as possible, especially in the current Covid-19 climate.

“To this end, the second meeting will be held as soon as possible on November 11, to explore further the formation of the strategy, which needs to be both evidence-based, using the council’s recent East Devon Poverty Report, and wherever possible to address the root causes of poverty.”

Honiton St Michael’s representative Cllr Mike Allen first put forward a motion for EDDC to ‘poverty-proof’ its policies a year ago.

He said this week that, while he was delighted work is under way, a delay in developing a strategy is ‘extreme tardiness’.

Cllr Allen added: “This has resulted in the routine channels of support being flooded during the pandemic first wave.

“Although things have begun to move forward with the first poverty reduction group meeting, by the time any action gets through the bureaucratic processes, the second wave, Brexit and the changes in furlough support will be on us.”

“Jumping Jupp Flash” digs himself into a bit of a hole:

Simon Jupp, the Conservative MP for East Devon, two weeks ago said that another full national lockdown ‘simply isn’t necessary in the South West and I would vote against any push by Labour to force a national lockdown. This would divide the country, harm our economy and punish people across the South West.’…..

Mr Jupp had not yet responded to the questions posed around how he would vote in Parliament….

While Neil Parish plays the part of Father Christmas: 

Neil Parish, the Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, is another who reluctantly feels he has to vote for a second lockdown…..

Mr Parish added that the lockdown will be time-limited, and that the mass testing – which will see everyone living or working in Liverpool will be offered tests, whether or not they have symptoms, which if successful, could be rolled out to “millions” by Christmas – was a huge boost.

Daniel Clark www.devonlive.com

“It’s an absolute tragedy for lives and livelihoods and Boris Johnson’ dither and delay and inability to deliver has led to this.”

Ben Bradshaw, the Labour MP for Exeter, cannot hide his anger over the chain of events that have led to a second national lockdown set to be imposed later this week.

“On this, there has been no trade-off between public health and economy – we have one of the worst death rates and one of the worst economic hits due to their serial incompetence and the continued scandalous failure of the test track and trace system,” he said.

On Saturday night, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that stringent action across the country was ‘vital’ in combating the spread of coronavirus.

Subject to MPs on Wednesday voting in favour of the second lockdown, non-essential services and businesses close, including pubs and restaurants, will once again be closed to close.

The government has also returned to its message of ‘stay at home, to protect the NHS and save lives’, although unlike the first lockdown, educational settings will remain open, household ‘bubbles’ remain and you can meet with one person not from your household outside.

Mr Bradshaw, as the Labour Party have said they will, be voting in favour of the measures, although he said any final decision would not be made until the wording of the legislation is proposed.

But he said that had the Prime Minister listened to the calls of SAGE and of Sir Keir Starmer for a two-week lockdown, then the measures needed to be taken now wouldn’t be so long or so intense.

“It’s an absolute tragedy that we have to do this,” he said. “But the Prime Minister ignored the advice, and we are now in a much worse situation as a result, and this is an absolutely tragedy for those who lives are affected, for business who face further uncertainly, for those whose jobs are on the line, and those in the front line dealing with a very different situation.

“I will wait to see exactly what is proposed but I will probably voting in favour of the measures in general because it is better late than never. The lessons of covid have been swift and decisive action saves lives and protects the economy and the clear advice from science is that if we don’t act now, then the NHS would be overwhelmed and the death toll far worse than the spring, so with a heavy heart, I will be voting in favour of the measures

“But the Government must publish clear criteria for an exit route to the lockdown and on what basis a decision to extend or end it will be taken. Sir Keir Starmer asked for this weeks ago at Prime Ministers’ Questions as to whether getting R Rate below 1 was the objective, and this is important but is it sufficient? People need something to plan and to something to aim at as if it is just a vague lockdown with no obvious exit, it will increase frustrating and desperation and damage the level of compliance

“People are really fed up and fed up with the serial incompetence of Boris Johnson and his government. Compliance was shot very badly by the Dominic Cummings scandal and has never recovered as people took the view of it is one rule for them and another for the rest of us. A huge amount of damage done to trust and levels of compliance, but I would urge people to stick to the rules and advice as one person’s behaviour has a big impact on other people and we all have a responsibility to get through the crisis.”

Mr Bradshaw was also called for the Government to immediate publish the modelling that they produced in the charts that were shown as part of Saturday’s press conference, saying they have to be completely transparent.

His call emerged before experts today questioned the legitimacy of those graphs which were based on an estimate R Rate of 1.3-1.5, when the Government’s own figures show the R Rate is between 1.1-1.3, and the doomsday scenario of 4,000 deaths a day by December was based on data that was weeks out of date, using a model based on the projection that there would be 1,000 deaths per day by now, when the average is less than 300.

The Exeter MP said: “Clearly the rate of increase is very serious and it would eventually impact on the hospitals, even in a region like ours when infection rates lower, but it is vital that the government publishes the modelling and is completely transparent about the information on which these decision are being made, and does it quickly and doesn’t wait several weeks.

“The problem we had was that Keir Starmer’s call was based on advice that was three weeks old, so they must publish SAGE advice immediately and stop treating the public like children who cannot be privy to the information.

“They need to publish the full impacts and modelling as they have continued to overpromise and under deliver on everything

“The lesson I hope we learn that dither and delay, which we have had is lethal for lost lives and for the economy. There has been no trade-off between public health and economy as we have among the worst death rates and the worst economic hits due to their serial incompetence and the continued scandalous failure of the test, track and trace system.

“The tracing is non-existent and they need to immediately to hand it down to local public health officials, and GPs and take it out of the completely useless private hire companies that have made a complete pig ears of the system, and if we had an effective system then we wouldn’t be where we are, and the repeated failures to deliver on promises on this has been one of the biggest scandals of the affair.

“There needs to be provided support to people, and businesses and local authority needs to be given proper support and to improve people self-isolating, as if by self-isolating you impoverish yourself then people are just not doing it and compliance will be less.”

He added: “A combination of Boris’ dither and delay and inability to deliver led to this. He has been over optimistic on everything and it would be a foolish politician to predict anything that will happen.

“The great hope is that a vaccine comes online and works, along with a combination of treatment, testing, as well as a test, track and trace and isolate that works, and if we get some of them then we can live with the virus better and open more of the economy, but we need two of the three in place.”

And he said that it was vital that as far as possible that school and university’s do stay open, if safe to do so, as the level of risk to young people and children is far less severe, and the least well off suffer the most when their education is interrupted and been disrupted enough.

He continued: “When it is all over, there needs to be a fair and just reckoning between the ages as young people have paid a huge price and have been far more economically and socially impacted and affected by this and will have to the devastating fiscal effects to deal with for the rest of their lives.”

Conservative MP for Newton Abbot, Anne Marie Morris, doesn’t often have a lot in common with Ben Bradshaw, but she is equally angry with how the crisis has been handled – but from a different perspective.

Having spoken against the ‘circuit-breaker’, she said that she remains unconvinced that a second national lockdown would have a positive and effective impact in stopping the virus and believe instead that it would have a number of wide-ranging negative impacts on the population.

She said: “While I fully understand the desire to get spread of disease under control, the Government is yet to offer any kind of roadmap as to how we get out of this situation or provide any substantial (and needed) analysis of the impact that a second national lockdown will have on the non-covid related health conditions.

“My worry is that a lockdown strategy is based on the assumption that a vaccine is just around the corner – something of which there is currently no concrete evidence. Having a continuous rolling lockdown without an ending in sight will cause more harm than good longer term.

“If we end up in a situation similar to the first lockdown, people with other health conditions will be unable to access treatment and operations will be delayed. In delaying treatments, we are causing longer lasting problems for the NHS and the health of the population. Cancers that would usually be detected earlier are being diagnosed later, a reduction in postnatal support is having an impact on new parents and babies and mental health support has been impacted at a time when it is perhaps needed more than ever. The reality is that the non-Covid health impact will far outweigh that of Covid itself.”

And on the economic impact, Ms Morris added: “The evidence shows that the South West has been and will be the hardest hit economically by Covid-19 due to our focus on not only tourism and hospitality but also our large number of small and medium sized businesses. Our businesses have already taken a massive kicking and it would be utterly irresponsible to let this happen again. Put another way – businesses in Devon cannot afford a second lockdown without increased levels of support.

“Fundamentally, we are where we are, and now it is vital that we are able to support those across the community who need help. Things will get worse before they get better, and it is critical that we all continue to support each other, as has been the case so far this year.”

Mel Stride, the Conservative MP for Central Devon, called for a balanced debate about lockdown between scientists and economists to take place when speaking in Parliament, although he didn’t directly respond to questions asked.

He said: “This lockdown will inevitably have very serious consequences for our economy, and for the livelihoods of millions of people up and down the country, for many years to come. We do not wish to see the NHS overwhelmed, but, equally, we do not wish to see the UK economy overwhelmed.”

Speaking in Parliament, he asked the Prime Minister: “Do you agree that perhaps we need a more balanced debate about lockdown, involving both scientists and economists more prominently? With that in mind, would he consider the Government’s chief economic adviser—or similar economic expert—joining the Government’s scientific experts for the No. 10 press briefings?”

In response, he said: “I am grateful to for that point. I am not sure that I want to put the Government’s chief economic adviser through the experience of the press briefings, but we are always aware of the economic consequences and the downsides of what, alas, we are forced to do at the moment.

“That is why it is vital that we work together and get the R down below 1 again; it is only just above 1, and I do believe that we can do it by December 2. We can then open up the economy again in the way that I know both he and I would like to see.”

Anthony Mangnall, the Conservative MP for Totnes, was another who wanted reassurance over the economic impact of the lockdown when speaking in Parliament, although he didn’t directly respond to questions asked.

He said: “Given that there is an economic impact from this lockdown and that will have an impact on livelihoods, what can the Prime Minister do to reassure my constituents, who have striven so hard since the relaxation of the lockdown on July 4, that there is a brighter future and there will not be mission creep in terms of a lockdown beyond December 2?”

Mr Johnson said: “I cannot say often enough that this is a time-limited lockdown and it ends on December 2 unless this House decides to extend measures of one kind or another. Any further measures will be a matter for this House, and it is fully my intention that the lockdown should end on December 2.”

Simon Jupp, the Conservative MP for East Devon, two weeks ago said that another full national lockdown ‘simply isn’t necessary in the South West and I would vote against any push by Labour to force a national lockdown. This would divide the country, harm our economy and punish people across the South West.’

Mr Jupp had not yet responded to the questions posed around how he would vote in Parliament, but during Monday’s debate, he said: “Cases in the South West remain lower than in most of England, although the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. We are well prepared in Devon with the Nightingale hospital in Exeter. We must take steps to ensure that our NHS is not put under severe strain this winter and keep our hospitals open for non-covid admissions.

“We have a duty to protect lives and livelihoods, and our local economy is already incredibly fragile, so what assurances can the Prime Minister give East Devon that come December 2, without a shred of doubt, the return to a regional tiered approach will happen to reduce the spread and keep businesses going?”

Kevin Foster, the Conservative MP for Torbay, said while there are no easy options, simply ignoring things, hoping for the best and waiting until Torbay Hospital is under pressure it cannot manage from this and other conditions before doing something is not an option.

“In essence, no action being taken could see Hospitals in the South West run out of capacity or only able to deal with the most urgent cases by the end of this month

“I know these restrictions will be a blow to many businesses locally, although from speaking with several in recent days many were already seeing trade slow down and bookings fall off, especially in the tourism sector where the season normally would have ended this week. It is therefore very welcome the Furlough Scheme has been extended until December.

“I have had some ask why this cannot just be an issue where individuals decide to take their own risk, like they can do with other items like smoking which is banned in places where it would affect others, but despite the well-known health impacts you can still do it legally.

“Yet the problem with this theory is those deciding for themselves would almost certainly turn to the NHS for treatment if/when they fell ill, not just putting healthcare workers at extra risk, but using up the very resource we need to protect for not just Covid-19, but other conditions. They may also infect others working in essential retail and make it more likely their neighbours who are following the guidance are infected as well. Hence this cannot just be a matter of personal choice.

“I appreciate some will disagree, and I hope there can be some further tweeks to the rules if items like rapid testing become more available in coming weeks. Yet for now, with the situation at our local Hospital and nationally pointing to a need for action to prevent it escalating doing nothing or waiting to see what happens if we have to start cancelling even more NHS services or bring in restrictions which also involve closing vital services like Courts and Schools is not an option. There are no easy options.”

Neil Parish, the Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, is another who reluctantly feels he has to vote for a second lockdown.

He said: “We need to reduce social contact and the transmission of the disease now so that we can buy time, save lives and hopefully have a decent Christmas together. The Prime Minister has been quite clear that on our current trajectory, hospitals even in the South West will be overwhelmed, within a matter of weeks.

“I support the measures taken backed up with proper financial support, including an extended furlough scheme, and I think the nation supports and understands why we need to do this. Nobody wants these restrictions, least of all the Prime Minister, but it is the best way to control the spread of the virus and put it into reverse.”

Mr Parish added that the lockdown will be time-limited, and that the mass testing – which will see everyone living or working in Liverpool will be offered tests, whether or not they have symptoms, which if successful, could be rolled out to “millions” by Christmas – was a huge boost.

He added: “I hope hospitals and teachers in our area will have access very soon. This lockdown is a time-limited lockdown and there is light at the end of the tunnel, with rapid testing, Christmas and a vaccine in the New Year.”

And giving more hope for the future, Mr Foster added: “The forthcoming restrictions is not a position anyone wants to be in. We all look forward to the day next year when we can get back to a more normal way of life and enjoying the things which make our bay the special place to live it is. As medical treatments advance, rapid testing becomes more developed and with the prospect of a vaccine tantalisingly close there are lots of reasons to be optimistic for the future.

“By this time next year Covid-19 is likely to be in the position where it is just one of the issues our NHS deals with each day and the pandemic will be a memory, not a daily reality. Yet for now our NHS and Social Care Teams are asking us to help them to help us by following the rules due to come in on Thursday.”

Geoffrey Cox, the MP for Torridge and West Devon, and Selaine Saxby, the MP for North Devon, neither responded to the request for comment, nor spoke in Parliament.

Sir Gary Streeter, MP for South West Devon, added: “I will be supporting the government because we have no choice.”

“Occupancy levels are lower in the South West but the rate of increase is faster and bed capacity is lower, so “although they look further away at the moment, they could hit difficulties relatively quickly”, he added.”

Who reduced the bed capacity to land us in this dire situation and why?

We all pay the same taxes don’t we?

Why do we always lose out in Devon?

Who is shouting the case for more? Tory MPs? John Hart? Heart of the South West? The Great South West?

Throughout the pandemic Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty seem to have relied predominantly on the results of one theoretical model to predict its course. They appear in front of the Science and Technology Select Committee this afternoon and this article gives a taste of what they might be in for. – Owl

By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor www.telegraph.co.uk

Chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer to face committee amid concern graphs shown were out of date and alarmist

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have been summoned before MPs to explain the evidence for a national lockdown, after their 4,000 deaths figure was questioned by scientists.

The pair will face the Science and Technology Select Committee on Tuesday afternoon, amid mounting concern that the graphs shown at a press conference on Saturday evening were out-of-date and alarmist.

Modelling presented by Sir Patrick, the government’s Chief Scientific Advisor, showed that under a worst case scenario 4,000 deaths-a-day could occur by December 20 – four times more than the worst day of the first peak.

However, the forecast was compiled on October 9, five days before new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day. 

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265 and Monday’s death figure was just 136.

It has since emerged that the modelling was based on an ‘R’ rate of 1.3 to 1.5 and shown despite the Government publishing a rate of between 1.1 and 1.3 the day before the press conference. 

Yesterday the government office for science refused to release the key to the graph explaining which groups had modelled the varying scenarios, or what parameters had been used, saying ‘relevant papers would be published shortly.

Science Committee chairman Greg Clark said: “This is an important moment in the handling of the pandemic. Parliament must have the chance to understand and question the evidence and rationale behind the new restrictions in advance of Wednesday’s debate and vote.

“I am grateful to Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty for having agreed immediately to my request to appear before the science and technology committee on Tuesday.”

Last week, Sir Patrick said the three-tier restrictions were starting to have an impact and the ‘R’ rate was now clearly in decline. A graph shown at the press conference also illustrated a clear downward trend.

Professor Tim Spector, of King’s College London, said a national lockdown was being implemented just as the second wave was “running out of steam in the worst affected areas”.

Prof Spector said new data from the King’s app, which has been monitoring the spread since the first wave, showed that cases stopped growing in northern England four days ago.

Professor Carl Henegnhan of Oxford University also published a graph demonstrating that Liverpool cases have nearly halved since the peak on October 7.

“Am I missing something?” he said, referring to the decision to lockdown the country.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) group which produced the 4,000 death graph, admitted that the graph showed a situation where the tiers had little impact. 

“The “up to 4000 deaths a day” scenarios represent preliminary work to generate a new reasonable worst case planning scenario to assist NHS and other government planning,” he said. 

“The reasonable worst case is intended to be pessimistic, so these scenarios assumed an R value of 1.3-1.5 and that the tier system would have minimal impact.”

However Prof Ferguson said that even allowing for the effects of the current tier system, a second wave is still likely to exceed the first wave in hospital demands and deaths.

www.theyworkforyou.com /debates/

Did Boris fully grasp the question? Does Owl have to call on the Gnomes to interpret this exchange?

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 Simon Jupp Conservative, East Devon

Cases in the south-west remain lower than in most of England, although the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. We are well prepared in Devon with the Nightingale hospital in Exeter. We must take steps to ensure that our NHS is not put under severe strain this winter and keep our hospitals open for non-covid admissions. We have a duty to protect lives and livelihoods, and our local economy is already incredibly fragile. What assurances can the Prime Minister give East Devon that come 2 December, without a shred of doubt, the return to a regional tiered approach will happen to reduce the spread and keep businesses going?

 Boris Johnson The Prime Minister, Leader of the Conservative Party

I can tell my hon. Friend without a shred of doubt that these measures are time-limited and expire automatically on 2 December, and we will go back into the tiered system, depending on the data—though he is entirely right in what he says, alas, about the spread at the moment in the south-west. But it will depend on the state of the data at the time.

Bit later than usual

• Construction of single storey garage, single storey side extension and raised decking. Launchycroft House Launchycroft Lyme Regis DT7 3NFRef. No: 20/2329/FUL | Validated: Sun 25 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Use of the business unit by Westexe Forklifts for uses falling under Class Uses B1 (now Class E) and B8 Westexe Forklifts Poltimore Barton Poltimore Exeter EX4 0BQRef. No: 20/2307/CPE | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Retention of drainage basin to serve the 5 dwellings approved under planning permission 19/1807/VAR Land East Of High Bank Bridge View RockbeareRef. No: 20/2308/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of lawfulness for the construction of rear dormer window and 2 no. rooflights to front 63 Barn Orchard Cranbrook Exeter Devon EX5 7AERef. No: 20/2317/CPL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1 – Hornbeam, Crown reduce by 3-4, MDC 50mm. Existing crown spread E-W 15, N-S 15m Existing height 18-19m T2 – Hornbeam, Reduce height by 3-4m MDC 100mm, tip prune eastern canopy by 2m, MDC 25mm. Existing height and spread unknown due to limited access tot he area and view is obscured. Reason for works: T1 – To contain a very large tree for a relatively small garden, the tree was reduced a number of years ago and requires a repeat mangement operation. T2 – The tree is leaning and has been requested by the neighbours to be pruned back. 49 Winslade Park Avenue Clyst St Mary Exeter EX5 1DBRef. No: 20/2320/TRE | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1 : trim back overhanging limbs from neighbouring Leylandii hedge T2, T3 , T4 , Lawson Cypress : fell to open up the bottom area of the garden. One has had bonfire damage at the base whilst all three have poor “V” shapes unions On them. Removal of one may leave the other two exposed to conditions they are not used to, creating potential Hazards. T7 semi mature Oak tree which will be a bit one sided, a light reductions to shorten over extended limbs. This would also alleviate and potential issue with it over phone lines and over neighbouring property. T5, Chestnut : crown lift approximately 3 Chestnut trees to 3m removing limbs that have not been pruned properly. Also severing ivy. T6 : Prune off limbs over hanging from neighbouring conifer which is very top heavy and damaging fences. Thrushes Anvil Windmill Lane West Hill Ottery St Mary EX11 1JPRef. No: 20/2314/TRE | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1 & T2 Beech trees forming 1 crown : crown reduction works by removing branch lengths of upto 1.5m. Cuts to be limited >50mm. retaining Northern spread of 6m and Southern spread of 6m and retaining overall E-W spread of 12m. Retaining tree height of 14m, same works last carried out November 2016 T3, London plane : growing from neighbouring property, reduce lateral easterly spread by 2m to give clearance Apartment 1 West Dunsinane Maer Road Exmouth EX8 2DARef. No: 20/2305/TRE | Validated: Thu 22 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Fell Multi stem Oak – due to poor form and quality and basal decay, replace with Q.robur standard within 3m on same boundary 29 Maple Drive Exmouth EX8 5NRRef. No: 20/2304/TRE | Validated: Thu 22 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T5555, Horse Chestnut : dismantle to near ground level T5558, Ash : dismantle to near ground level T608, Monterey Cypress : reduce crown by approximately 5 meters, MDC 250-300mm. Existing height 27m Reason: Appropriate arboricultural management Cyprus Gardens ExmouthRef. No: 20/2299/TRE | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of entrance porch and addition of painted render and cladding Rose Cottage Exmouth Road Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5AQRef. No: 20/2301/FUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Construction of front dormer window 55 Imperial Road Exmouth EX8 1DQRef. No: 20/2287/FUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed extension and conversion of existing outbuilding to form studio / games room. Kains Park Farm Awliscombe Honiton EX14 3NNRef. No: 20/2293/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of porch 20 Best Park Cranbrook Exeter Devon EX5 7AGRef. No: 20/2296/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of lawfulness for the construction of a single storey extension 24 Honey Park Road Budleigh Salterton EX9 6EGRef. No: 20/2283/CPL | Validated: Thu 22 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Devon County Council application for extensions and alterations to the existing waste processing facility and combined heat and power plant at Unit 8, Stuart Way, Hill Barton Business Park, Exeter, EX5 1DRUnit 8 Stuart Way Hill Barton Business Park Clyst St Mary Exeter Devon EX5 1SDRef. No: 20/2272/CM | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey extension to rear, and alterations to garage roof 23 Bapton Close Exmouth EX8 3LQRef. No: 20/2275/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use from one flat to two flats and alterations Flat Sheffield House Church Street Sidmouth EX10 8LXRef. No: 20/2265/FUL | Validated: Thu 22 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Rear extension and loft conversion Old Dairy House Bewley Down Axminster EX13 7JXRef. No: 20/2281/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed single storey porch extension 1 Arthurs Close Exmouth EX8 4JZRef. No: 20/2284/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of lawfulness for the construction of single storey rear extension 2 Rusper Close Plymtree Cullompton EX15 2LTRef. No: 20/2274/CPL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Removal of garden to form off street parking Millvale Underhill Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5HHRef. No: 20/2268/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of ground and first floor extensions Noojee Poltimore Exeter EX4 0ARRef. No: 20/2276/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of hip to gable extension and rear dormer window. 9 Penlee Budleigh Salterton EX9 6BPRef. No: 20/2267/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of extension to garage. Rowans Quarter Mile Lane Marsh Green Exeter EX5 2EURef. No: 20/2277/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Fig (T1) Elderberry (T2) – fell due to bad condition of the trees, after a site visit from David Lomas 29 Sandhill Street Ottery St Mary EX11 1EGRef. No: 20/2270/TCA | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey extension, dormer window to rear, and inclusion of horizontal cladding to exterior Heathers Knowle Drive Sidmouth EX10 8HWRef. No: 20/2262/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• New 50-seater grandstand, relocation of existing dugouts, new perimeter path and installation of ball-stop netting Sidmouth Town Football Club Manstone Lane SidmouthRef. No: 20/2253/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Retention of first floor rear extension to flat incorporating repositioned roof terrace 96A High Street Sidmouth EX10 8EGRef. No: 20/2259/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace existing dwelling and garage with contemporary dwelling and garage Hamacre Lyme Road Uplyme Lyme Regis DT7 3XARef. No: 20/2258/FUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Increase height of existing chimney stack and add chimney pot (total height 1.8 metres above ridgeline) on front (south) elevation. Beech Cottage Plymtree Cullompton EX15 2JURef. No: 20/2260/LBC | Validated: Thu 22 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• Erection of 6 affordable dwellings, creation of a means of access to a highway, parking and landscaping Land South Of The Flintlock Inn Marsh Honiton EX14 9AJRef. No: 20/2241/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replacement of poultry building 1 and associated infrastructure Little Westcott Sheldon Honiton Devon EX14 4QSRef. No: 20/2240/MFUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of second floor extension, and roof terrace 2 Raddenstile Lane Exmouth EX8 2JHRef. No: 20/2221/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Proposed single storey rear extension and 2 storey side extension. 1 The Elms 61 Salterton Road Exmouth EX8 2EQRef. No: 20/2216/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use from Art Gallery (Class D1) to a retail use within commercial, business and service use (Class E) Unit 2 The Dutch Barn Woodhayes Luppitt Honiton EX14 4TPRef. No: 20/2203/COU | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of rear extension. Westering 1 Connaught Close Sidmouth EX10 8TURef. No: 20/2198/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of new first floor extension over existing flat roof area to provide additional bedroom and bathroom. Flat 5 The Pines New Road Beer Seaton EX12 3HSRef. No: 20/2182/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use of a rural building and erection of an extension to form 3 no. holiday lets, with associated works. Devenish Pitt Farm Farway Colyton EX24 6EGRef. No: 20/2177/FUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replace 1no. door and top light on front (west) elevation; replace 3no. windows on front (west) elevation and 2no. windows on rear (East) elevation. 16 Temple Street Sidmouth EX10 9AYRef. No: 20/2192/LBC | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• New vehicular access to off-road parking bay and retaining wall to front of the property 4 Jubilee Grove Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5LURef. No: 20/2138/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

• New vehicular access to off-road parking bay and retaining wall to front of the property. 5 Jubilee Grove Lympstone Exmouth EX8 5LURef. No: 20/2136/FUL | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• A certificate of lawfulness to establish the lawful use of a building as a permanent residential dwelling 26 Stoneleigh Country Holidays Weston Sidmouth EX10 0PJRef. No: 20/2122/CPE | Validated: Mon 19 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Change of use of garage to holiday let accommodation Flat 1 58 East Budleigh Road Budleigh Salterton EX9 6EJRef. No: 20/2049/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of dormer on front elevation 51 Parade Exmouth EX8 1RDRef. No: 20/2022/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Two storey rear extension 197 Manstone Avenue Sidmouth EX10 9TLRef. No: 20/1981/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Replacement of existing lean-to outbuildings with stepped single storey extension. Otter Rise Upottery Honiton EX14 9PARef. No: 20/1989/FUL | Validated: Fri 23 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• T1, copper beech – reduce by 1- 2m and shorten side growth by approximately 1m to leave a height of approximately 12m and a radial spread of 3m. To allow more light into house and garden and neighbouring houses and gardens. Wistaria Cottage 1 Alma Terrace Coburg Road Sidmouth EX10 8NQRef. No: 20/1970/TCA | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Wooden shed to be used as a hair salon. 22 Rosewell Close Honiton EX14 1QURef. No: 20/1928/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Construction of single storey side/rear extension; ramp to north side. 23 Potters Stile Dunkeswell Honiton EX14 4XARef. No: 20/1921/FUL | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision
• Certificate of Lawfulness to establish whether the area of land used for the business, and the level of business activity, has exceed that in the certificate for a period exceeding 10 years Nursery Garage Courtlands Lane Exmouth EX8 5ABRef. No: 20/1911/CPE | Validated: Wed 21 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

Alteration to existing access to property to allow for parking inside property boundary 9 Cooks Mead Uplyme Lyme Regis DT7 3XJRef. No: 20/1844/FUL | Validated: Tue 20 Oct 2020 | Status: Awaiting decision

People are reasonably asking why? (E.g. BBC Spotlight last night). 

This devonlive article below gives the immediate explanation.

The fundamental problem was explained by Owl on 19 March:

“The south west looks most vulnerable in terms of ratios. It has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality) and lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. The modelling suggests it needs six times more than currently exists there (600 per cent).”

“On the upside, the south west currently has a relatively low infection rate. Public Health England (PHE) should be doing everything possible to keep it that way through aggressive testing and containment of new cases [If only! – Owl]. If the virus gets out of control in the south west it is likely to sweep through the region’s retirement towns and nursing homes, overwhelming local hospitals.”

Owl hopes that all those who went along with bed closures locally will reflect upon their actions – we are all in this together – no-one is immune, no-one can “buy their way out”.

See also  www.hsj.co.uk 

Paul Greaves www.devonlive.com

The South West will be one of the first regions to run out of hospital capacity if nothing is done to stop the spread of coronavirus, according to a document presented to the government.

Based on NHS England modelling from 28 October, it warns the NHS would be unable to accept any more patients by Christmas – even if the Nightingale hospitals are used, reports the BBC.

It says that the South West and the Midlands are the least equipped to cope – and could run out of capacity within a fortnight.

The documents makes grim reading and comes amid reports that the government is considering a national lockdown of some form to halt a surge in COVID infections. The plan would be to ease pressure on the NHS in the hope the measures could be relaxed for Christmas. But tougher restrictions will have a severe impact on people’s livelihoods.

According to the BBC, documents suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.

Papers prepared by the government’s pandemic modelling group, SPI-Mseen, are understood to be part of a presentation to the Prime Minister.

All the models predict that hospitalisations are likely to peak in mid-December, with deaths rising until the end of the year before falling in January. The government will hope that by then a vaccine for the virus will have been signed off.

Scientists believe it is now inevitable that the whole country will end up in some form of lockdown to prevent more than 500 Covid deaths a day over winter – and a lockdown now is the only way families will be able spend Christmas together – reports The Mirror.

Sage is advising that it is not too late to save Christmas – but it will take a longer lockdown than the two week ‘circuit breaker’ they recommended last month.

The current estimate of the R number in the UK – the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to on average – is between 1.1 and 1.3, indicating that cases are still growing.

Sage member Prof Gabriel Scally told the BBC’s Newsnight that a national lockdown was inevitable.

“The R number is still far too high. Everyone knows that these tiers are not working and they’re not going to work.